AOC for POTUS? – politicalbetting.com
AOC for POTUS? – politicalbetting.com
A new poll from the New York Times shows potential Democratic voters want the party to move to the right, are happy with where it is ideologically, and rate socialism highly. Huh?https://t.co/o6mAvLeERS pic.twitter.com/0HFCygS6ot
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They may actually kill themselves off for those using them for free, which ironically would have much the same effect as a ban for under 16s.
Anyone reading this might think that the activists were convicted of terrorism offences or, at the very least, that their sentences were substantially increased because Palestine Action was subsequently banned as a terrorist organisation. Neither is true.
https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/activists-not-terrorists?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=79530&post_id=201979337&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Of the other groups, only the Belgium group looks good for Scotland. Five of the other six could easily see the third place team have four points and I wouldn't right off Ecuador from getting four points in the other group. And even if they lose to Germany, I feel Ecuador have more chance of having a better goal difference than Scotland. And then there are four more groups to come.
Also, they are at a disadvantage in being in an early group. The rest get to see what they need to do.
As ever, DYOR.
..the most potent attack line of all was linking Reform’s plans to bring back fox hunting to a general message about them only being interested in the rich (a 4.6 point drop).
AOC hasn’t decided what’s she’s doing but the autumn may make it clearer
Remember the other option is a safe senate seat probably for life
Given that the Met has stated that without sufficient money they may not be able to get to the point of sending possible charges to the CPS for a further 5 years, the likelihood of anyone facing any effective accountability for their part in this disgrace is getting lower and lower.
Not only will more sub-postmasters have died but some of the key likely defendants.
This will of course suit the Post Office and government and all the scumbags involved very well indeed.
Endless delay. Everyone dead. Pro forma apology. No more need to compensate. File report and never look at it again. Ignore recommendations.
Then repeat the whole ghastly exercise for the next scandals whose seeds are being sown right now.
At which point, one starts looking round nervously.
This would improve coverage on mainline trains for millions of people overnight.
Much better that she runs as VP to Newsom. They get on well, and would make a great team with reach across independents with Newsom, and depth into the core for turnout with AOC.
She will be 38 in 2028 and only 46 in 2036 after two terms of Newsom.
She has plenty of time to become a great President.
Defence counsel's closing speech for one of the defendants went into very great detail about the defendant's political motivations / concern for victims etc and why he should be acquitted so the idea that the jury was not made fully aware of why the defendants did what they did is for the birds.
As for the claim that the jury was not told about sentencing and what an outrage this all is, juries play no role in sentencing at all. Ever. It is utterly irrelevant to their role.
Buttigieg from Indiana would be better and he already leads early New Hampshire polling amongst Democratic primary voters and of course won the Iowa caucuses in 2020
Bet on what should have been easy victory in World Cup opener backfires as minnows Cape Verde spring huge shock against European champions
A punter lost a $1m (£745,405) bet after Cape Verde produced one of the biggest World Cup shocks by holding tournament favourites Spain to a goalless draw.
Cape Verde, who are ranked 67th in Fifa’s world rankings, were expected to be thrashed by Spain in their first game at a World Cup finals and one individual was willing to lay a seven-figure sum on the European champions gaining three points.
However, Spain were held by the minnows after 40-year-old keeper Vozinha produced a host of spectacular saves to earn Cape Verde a point.
The bet was placed on Polymarket, an American cryptocurrency-based platform that allows users to place bets and predict markets, and would have won £85,943.48.
Another user named “fishalaive”, however, laid out a $400,000 (£298,000) bet for the Spaniards not to win and it returned $4.7m (£3.5m).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/06/15/spain-draw-with-cape-verde-after-punter-puts-million-on-win/
If only journalists had been as quick to catch on to the shortcomings of the major parties as the voters have. This is partly a result of the lack of media resources for ongoing field reporting, but it’s also to do with the media’s own attachment to the two-party system.
And while they now marvel at the rise of a party that’s been a sleeping threat for years, the ping-pong ball has escaped the arena and is already bouncing down the hill."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/15/pauline-hanson-one-nation-borrow-from-trump-grievance-politics-ntwnfb
And which is more damaging - geography or sexuality?
Does image trump geography?
Newsom is type cast to be President. Trump recognises that. He even once accidentally called Newsom President!
Or you can drill a hole through the carriage wall and run an aerial through it.
Why would electing somebody who wants to be a Russian useful idiot in place of somebody who is a Russian useful idiot change that?
That said, lay all the favourites and especially the Republicans. Way too early to put money on a winner.
No masts, no TikTok
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 14-15 June 2026
Reform UK: 24% (-1 from 7-8 Jun)
Labour: 19% (=)
Conservatives: 19% (=)
Greens: 15% (+1)
Lib Dems: 13% (+1)
Restore Britain: 4% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Your Party: 0% (-1)
https://x.com/yougov/status/2066800321901260841?s=46
That gets overlooked presumably because as it's clear cut disability discrimination it's very Unwoke.
If not it's a still more impressive achievement.
And he'll be running as an ex-governor.
It's as if we've all driven ourselves mad by getting an image of the world that focuses on second-by-second twitches, rather than year-by-year tectonic movements. For some reason.
(Think about it...)
I'd want much longer odds to bet at this stage.
Political parties ALL play dirty tricks
A younger and more foolish version of myself once tried to get a small modification approved in the railway industry to remove 16 redundant holes filled with rivets that did nothing from a design of bogie frame plate we were refurbishing (we were fitting new plates, drilling the holes and putting rivets in to fill them up again). I was told it was vasty cheaper to keep drilling unwanted holes and fill them with rivets - the design review process costs to approve the "modification" would probably be in six figures.
The lowest polling share for the Tories under Truss was 14% (once) and 19% (three times). In the week before Truss announced her resignation as leader and PM the shares for the Tories were: 25, 24, 28, 22, 20, 23, 23, 19.
The polling shares for Labour in June, under Starmer, have been: 22, 18, 15, 20, 20, 19, 20, 16, 19.
Now, sure, five-party politics means that a winning vote share is a lot lower these days, but it's still fair to act appropriately to Labour receiving the worst polling scores of any government in recorded British history. Particularly as an election campaign often reduces down to the question of whether to kick the government out, or stick with them for now. Not hard to see a lot of anti-Labour tactical voting to kick the most unpopular government in recorded British history out of office.
And, additional to that, the government isn't pursuing a clear policy agenda which might be hoped to be showing signs of progress that could be defended at the next general election campaign. It does not have a clear reason for being.
By 'rightwards' many Americans might mean away from wokery.
Put them together and it suggests the sweet spot for the Dems is economically left and socially right of where they are.
Ukrainian drones have hit the Moscow oil refinery. It’s burning. This is a big one - the refinery provides 40% of fuel for Moscow and the wider oblast.
#explodey
One of Russia’s largest fuel retailers Tatneft has just announced fuel rationing across its entire network. This is huge. The whole country is now facing shortages.
Kremlin: “If Zelenskyy is ready to talk responsibly and seriously, he can always come to Moscow, where he will be received.”
And with that, I must be off. Stay safe, fellow non-verified persons.
1) Terrorism as an aggravating factor for something like criminal damage is absurd. The implications and consequences of each crime are entirely different, and should be prosecuted separately
2) Happily, Terrorism exists as a crime in isolation - that the CPS didn’t charge them with that indicates there was little chance of a conviction for the crime for which they have been sentenced
3) The motivation for the crime was concealed from the jury, but influenced the sentence. An important element of jury trials is to let citizens consider the facts and actually have a say - they have been hoodwinked into a conviction. The inconsistency is the problem.
4) It undermines all jury trials if the jury can’t know of what they are deciding. You should vote to acquit in all instances now, lest your careless driving decision morphs into murder.
And separately, but linked:
5)Wearing a t-shirt isn’t terrorism. It just isn’t. It’s the least aggressive form of political activism imaginable. The PA prohibition makes it so.
6) There are multiple examples of other politically motivated criminal damage (ULEZ cameras, for a start) not sentenced for terrorism. Why are the CPS picking favourites?
the operator of an information society service cannot be exempted from its liability for the information stored and rebroadcast over which it has control. That is the case where the operator determines, by means of an algorithm, under what conditions, how and in which order of priority that information is or is not rebroadcast.
https://curia.europa.eu/site/upload/docs/application/pdf/2026-06/cp260087en.pdf
In other words the moment a platform curates content in any way, that content becomes its own and it has responsibility for it.
Back to more important matters and my selections for the opening day at Ascot:
Queen Anne: MORE THUNDER
Coventry: CUT A DASH (each way)
King Charles III: OVERPASS
St James's Palace: BOW ECHO
Are juries expected to decide on motivation or on the facts presented? Lucy Letby was convicted without any rationale for the murders being put to the jury.
But a distribution of votes like that is surely subject to large and unpredictable effects from fairly minor swings (whether tactical voting or otherwise).
A "decent" polling number sits on foundations of sand.
To win the Democrats need to Voldemort it; the name that cannot be spoken.
Secondly when confronted by;
“That’s Socialism!”
They need to ask the interviewer what they mean by that, let them lay out their dying in the corridors in London hospitals narrative and then say
“ Well if that’s what it is it’s not what we’re offering!”
Before giving examples like Danish Healthcare!”
Basically the standard don’t let your opponent define you!
Peter.
Trump is the symptom of something that has been building in US politics for a long time. I am very doubtful that all the poison will be removed if Trump does leave office as scheduled in January 2029.
I still prefer still prefer Ipsos satisfaction ratings over VI at this stage in the cycle however there's a disconnect developing there too which I can only explain due to the Tory brand being tainted/seen as a wasted vote.
All the previous assumptions held true when we were in 2 to 3.5 party politics.
What they need to shut up about is trans, abortion and illegal immigrants.
Given the power the SCOUS has given Trump and how he has used it the last thing the Republicans will want is that power wielded against them.
Not least because if the DOJ opens up Trumps records and sees what they have been up, to a good few could be heading to Rikers Island!
Peter.
That golden rule came back with a vengeance in 2024.
Andy Burnham's net favourability rating has slumped to -11, having slipped significantly in mid-late May as Labour leadership rows have intensified
12-13 May
Favourable: 34%
Unfavourable: 30%
Net: +4
14-15 June
Favourable: 30%
Unfavourable: 41%
Net: -11
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2066828014659281179
4) The jury convicted on the charges brought. The charges were NOT changed after conviction. This is a flat out lie. Your analogy is a stupid one. Aggravating and mitigating factors are always factors in sentencing.
The complaint here is that something the defence chose to conceal from the jury because they thought it would prejudice the jury was lawfully used as one of the factors which the judge, in accordance with the law, The Sentencing Act of 2020, took into account in sentencing. If any hoodwinking was going on, it was the defence which tried to do this.
As for your point 1 this is equally stupid. Try saying that racial hatred as an aggravating factor for criminal damage is absurd. It isn't. Nor is terror.
There are different charges which can be brought on the basis of particular facts. Deciding which charges to be brought is an art. Saying that because something can be used as an aggravating factor means only a certain charge should be brought is absurdly reductive and not how the process of charging works.
What all these complaints boil down to is this: the defendants thought that because they were right to do what they did they should be acquitted and should face no consequences for their actions and are now learning that the law, which has been clear for some time, should not apply to them. And they - and some of their supporters - think this because they were doing this for Palestine. That is the heart of the complaint. Not the jury system or inconsistency in the law or anything else. It's because you like their cause that you are complaining. If these people had been attacking mosques because they hated the Taliban or pharmaceutical factories because they hated vaccines or black churches because they hated the slaughter of Christians in some parts of Africa there wouldn't be this concern about unfair trials.
As for me, I thought the judge was wrong to try to bring contempt of court proceedings against the defence barrister and am glad that this was dropped. I read the defence barrister's speech (have you?). It went into a lot of detail about motivation, Palestine, their reasons for doing what they did, why it was an injustice etc, etc. The jury had ample evidence and advocacy on which if they had wanted to they could have acquitted. They chose not to.
There is a separate argument to be made about whether the legal provision which allows a court to take into account something which might be deemed to be terrorism should have been passed. This was debated in Parliament at the time. Only one Lib Dem Lord raised a concern. If you want to debate that we can have a debate about removing all aggravating and mitigating factors from sentencing and just charging people with the most serious possible offence.
And finally if the judge has got the law wrong here then this will be appealed.
Letby was charged with murder, not child neglect - the jury were aware of the stakes. And motivation is a very important part of that decision, even in strict liability cases - e.g. you run a red rushing someone seriously injured to hospital.
Letby was charged with murder, not child neglect - the jury were aware of the stakes. And motivation is a very important part of any decision, even in strict liability cases - e.g. you run a red rushing someone seriously injured to hospital - and not normally concealed from a jury.
Wes Streeting has likewise seen his net favourability ratings worsen following his resignation as health secretary
12-13 May
Favourable: 16%
Unfavourable: 44%
Net: -28
14-15 June
Favourable: 12%
Unfavourable: 50%
Net: -38
Wearing that t-shirt in Golders Green or outside a synagogue, definitely getting charged.
Wearing that t-shirt at vegetarian convention, all good.
It's certainly possible- though a Restore effect, or Farage getting bored, seems more likely than anything the current Conservative leadership achieve. And Polanski is just as capable of self-combusting as Farage.