The latest Makerfield betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest Makerfield betting – politicalbetting.com
Unsurprisingly the latest Makerfield poll has had an effect on the betting. The key takeaway for me is that the Reform + Restore score is less than the Labour score.
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At least we'll have a by-election for Mayor of Greater Manchester to look forward to.
A song originally about masturbation, until they changed the word "it" to "her".
That sounds like fair amount of "getting elected" vs "having the job handed to him"
They have vastly increased support, but perhaps right now still not enough despite dominating the conversation on social media.
Also Simon Le Bon.
I wouldn’t use Badenochs words, but her diagnosis that we’re living in dangerous times is correct. One side simply cannot understand the other.
There was a big unserved area in British Politics: vaguely left on economic issues, right on cultural issues. Not necessarily totally to my taste, but tailor-made for places like Makerfield.
Reform toyed with this bit f the political map - then turned a good thirty degrees rightwards on both economics and culture. It's no wonder they're not really hitting the back of the net. It's no wonder also that they appear to be recruiting a lot of characters who have rather dubious histories.
It should be possible to articulate a position rather firmer on illegal immigration without going full on expel-anyone-whose-great-grandparents-weren't-born-here. It should be possible to articulate a party sceptical of the excesses of identity politics without going full-on Trump. It should be possible to leave those areas of the American culture wars which we've happily managed to avoid - like abortion - well alone.
But perhaps it's not possible to start a new party from scratch. Perhaps everyone who is a) keen on politics and b) keen on balanced and sane solutions is already in other parties so if you're trying to garner thousands of new members and potential politicians from scratch you are effectively left with the angry outsiders, which then skews your party wildly away from the bits of the electorate you thought you might serve.
I bought some dungarees to try to replicate the image. It didn't work.
Got the Human League into advise 'er."
And the rivers with the ocean,
The winds of heaven mix for ever
With a sweet emotion;
Nothing in the world is single;
All things by a law divine
In one spirit meet and mingle.
Why not I with thine...
?
Peter.
Other songs about masturbation:
Blister in the Sun - Violent Femmes
Turning Japanese - the Vapors
I Touch Myself - the Divinyls
Longview - Greenday
Any others?
Despite the commitment of the the cast, the kids were not into it. They had to stop the performance to tell everyone to shut up. I’m not sure R&J is necessarily the play to engage teenagers.
Must have driven Roland crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02QdeWnfn9s
Think of all the people on the Left who get a rage on when they discover politicians on the Left talk to Tories, and even socialise with them. Like they are real people or something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3O-PLopk5g
Peter.
Possibly my favourite single of all infused with bittersweet nostalgia is Another Girl. Another Planet by The Only Ones who were difficult to categorise.
But last night there it was in glorious technicolour. A Reform candidate unvarnished and chosen by we know not who-presumably Farage?
So what's Farage's process? This guy's a plumber and a plumber won last month.....Or this guy is as rough as sand paper and thinks all women are slags! We've cracked it!
As in England, Reform’s best cohort by miles is those living in council housing. And Labour’s weakest - their best group was those with household income more than £70k.
The Amerification of Scottish/UK politics is near complete.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54908-how-scotland-voted-in-the-2026-holyrood-election
I have a definite weakness for covers in the style of the Jazz/big band age. Bryan Ferry is of course the master of this.
In the old world it was THE only winning strategy. Unfortunately social media and fragmentation has changed that equation slightly where you can go far with a highly motivated core, but it’s still the best approach for centre left and right IMO. At least that’s my hope.
It is a shame Blair turned into what he turned into.
I have a weakness for pretty much any well known song in the style of another genre.
It's up there with "Springtime for Hitler!"
Peter.
https://youtu.be/l7gRi2dn74s?si=P8CJcUYw4vvx-0-4
And should we mention Radiohead’s “Thinking About You”?
The Makerfield dilemma: change now with Burnham (maybe) or bigger change later (maybe) with Reform?
As I’ve said many times, people still want Labour to deliver change. All to play for.
The overall impression was that it certainly wasn't in the bag for Burnham so I would counsel against going all in on Burnham based on the latest Survation polling. With a lot still in play I don't find odds of 2/9 on attractive although Burnham should still be favourite.
Peter.
I don't know the BUF positions in detail.
But the left wing parts of Mosley's journey are worth noting, too.
The position you describe could also be done from the left, as istm that the positions on both wings are identity politics - ethno-nationalism as much as the latest elaboration of PQRSTUVXYZ when taken too far.
Peter.
#putinslittlehelper
They once appeared and took over a show by said The Only Ones.
(Years later, saw Rat Scabies drumming for Donovan. Which was weird!)
Punk band worthy of an honourable mention were Stiff Little Fingers. The mosh pit for "Alternative Ulster" was legendary.
And I cannot leave this subject without reference to the best punk crowd of all time. Adam and the Ants. They made vertical moshpits - anthills - which eventually got too high to be stable, They inevitably collapsed - then everyone helped everyone get up and it all started again.
There were 1,000 fans locked outside without tickets. Messy.
https://x.com/allyfogg/status/2062827068539199800?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Remarkable.
‘Where the English go to hate’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/cwyw7kw2g02t
https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/looking-back-on-the-spanish-war/
Getting a mate to resign a "safe" seat right next door to the constituency he used to represent.
Having everyone else on the soft-left of the party give him a free ride in the forthcoming leadership contest.
Having the job handed to him.
The precedent is not promising.
Your sister's gone out, she's on a date
You just sit at home and masturbate
https://x.com/bresreports/status/2062852436239294643
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/5909906-ai-bias-american-narrative/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjpjd5595po
Councillor for where I live.