He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.
For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.
Surely Kenyon's pitch should be "I don't know who did this governing job for you but they made a right mess of it. Reform can do the job but it's going to cost" accompanied by a lot of tooth sucking.
So, that was QT. I genuinely felt sorry for several of the people on there. Talk about being thrown to the wolves - I only faced a hustings of 100 people and Sky reporters hovering at the back. Not actual telly. Think on your feet and remember whatever the party line is supposed to be? Not easy. Even if you are running for Reform and think women are slags.
Burnham will absolutely walk this byelection, as I called from the start. And then walk a leadership contest where he quickly becomes the sole candidate.
What does he do then? I hope he follows through on actually changing stuff. As he has in God's own Lancashire and a few lucky bits of heathen Cheshire...
He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.
For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.
Surely Kenyon's pitch should be "I don't know who did this governing job for you but they made a right mess of it. Reform can do the job but it's going to cost" accompanied by a lot of tooth sucking.
Hopefully his own teeth, not Carol Vorderman vibes.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I would be surprised if Restore get over 4%. A few die hards who are very online and really see Reform as controlled opposition, but most will fold quite nicely into Reform.
Just under 5 on betfair if you're prepared to back your judgement. Remember Rupert will have to lay out more cash to keep Restore high in the betting.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
As I have pointed out previously, every Reform vote now seems to generate more than 1 anti-Reform vote when it comes to national elections.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
Unless Reform implode, it will turn into Reform vs LibLabCon, with the main question being whether one of them can break free from the pack and become the main uniparty representative, or whether it will remain fragmented with local tactical voting.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
As I have pointed out previously, every Reform vote now seems to generate more than 1 anti-Reform vote when it comes to national elections.
You actually do have to wonder why Burnham agreed to appear tonight if he access to the polling. He had nowt to gain and everything to lose. On the surface.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
Unless Reform implode, it will turn into Reform vs LibLabCon, with the main question being whether one of them can break free from the pack and become the main uniparty representative, or whether it will remain fragmented with local tactical voting.
This country is being manipulated by foreign billionaires appears to be an idea which is gaining mainstream traction.
Ah the Telegraph. I was asked when this by election was called how relevant Brexit would be. I said almost no one I knew IRL ever mentioned it. That opinion was repeated on QT tonight when Fiona Bruce tried to raise it as a killer point. Not a single panellist demurred. Nor did anyone in the audience take it up. Yet the London media on both sides just can't let it go.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
Unless Reform implode, it will turn into Reform vs LibLabCon, with the main question being whether one of them can break free from the pack and become the main uniparty representative, or whether it will remain fragmented with local tactical voting.
Unfortunately possible. Even though the uniparty is bollocks.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
She’s not wrong. We’re sliding into Northern Ireland-esque sectarianism and I doubt even Burnham can hold back the tide. I find it interesting that it seems one of the biggest issues in Israeli politics other than the obvious is that internal division fuelled by social media and the like is seen as one of the biggest threats to the state of Israel’s long term future. Nations cannot survive long if they are divided fundamentally.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
Unless Reform implode, it will turn into Reform vs LibLabCon, with the main question being whether one of them can break free from the pack and become the main uniparty representative, or whether it will remain fragmented with local tactical voting.
That's true. However, when that is locally obvious it's a different story.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
As I have pointed out previously, every Reform vote now seems to generate more than 1 anti-Reform vote when it comes to national elections.
You actually do have to wonder why Burnham agreed to appear tonight if he access to the polling. He had nowt to gain and everything to lose. On the surface.
On the contrary. He had nothing to lose. Burnham's a pro. He knew immediately that all he had to do was let Kenyon speak and he was done and dusted. The bigger surprise was that Farage was prepared to let the country see what an actual Reform candidate sounded like.
Hate to be picky but given there are three Westminster by-elections next Thursday and only one is in England wasn’t question time coming from the wrong country?
Hate to be picky but given there are three Westminster by-elections next Thursday and only one is in England wasn’t question time coming from the wrong country?
Peter.
Frustratingly you would never know that there is also two other Westminster by-elections being held in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry on the 18th of June because there has been so little media coverage. I completely understand the intense media interest and scrutiny of the campaign in the Makerfield by-election because Andy Burnham sees this not only as his route back into Westminster but also because he clearly plans to challenge and replace Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader and PM.
But in so many news reports there is not even a mention of the fact there is actually going to be three Westminster by-elections that day, I am trying to think of the last time there has been so little attention paid to one far less two Westminster by-elections being held on the same night? And the Makerfield by-election even got its own special BBC QuestionTime special tonight, I genuinely feel the media are doing a bit of a disservice to the candidates and electorate of the other two by-elections by completely ignoring them.
Hate to be picky but given there are three Westminster by-elections next Thursday and only one is in England wasn’t question time coming from the wrong country?
Peter.
Frustratingly you would never know that there is also two other Westminster by-elections being held in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry on the 18th of June because there has been so little media coverage. I completely understand the intense media interest and scrutiny of the campaign in the Makerfield by-election because Andy Burnham sees this not only as his route back into Westminster but also because he clearly plans to challenge and replace Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader and PM.
But in so many news reports there is not even a mention of the fact there is actually going to be three Westminster by-elections that day, I am trying to think of the last time there has been so little attention paid to one far less two Westminster by-elections being held on the same night? And the Makerfield by-election even got its own special BBC QuestionTime special tonight, I genuinely feel the media are doing a bit of a disservice to the candidates and electorate of the other two by-elections by completely ignoring them.
I expect a Tory gain in Aberdeen South. Not sure about Arbroath.
"...This is a great example of a political party/leader raising the salience of an issue that their opponents have an advantage on. Spoiler: it didn't work out so well (just as it didn't work out so well for Rishi Sunak)..."
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
She’s not wrong. We’re sliding into Northern Ireland-esque sectarianism and I doubt even Burnham can hold back the tide. I find it interesting that it seems one of the biggest issues in Israeli politics other than the obvious is that internal division fuelled by social media and the like is seen as one of the biggest threats to the state of Israel’s long term future. Nations cannot survive long if they are divided fundamentally.
The Wars of the Roses, the Civil War etc suggest that's not a universal truth.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
She’s not wrong. We’re sliding into Northern Ireland-esque sectarianism and I doubt even Burnham can hold back the tide. I find it interesting that it seems one of the biggest issues in Israeli politics other than the obvious is that internal division fuelled by social media and the like is seen as one of the biggest threats to the state of Israel’s long term future. Nations cannot survive long if they are divided fundamentally.
The Wars of the Roses, the Civil War etc suggest that's not a universal truth.
It's actually nonsense. Nations are particularly enduring and cohesive. Many more nations have survived civil wars, revolutions, times of bitter division etc than have perished because of them, which is why the nation state is the best way to organise people, despite what Brussels desperately wants everybody to believe.
Ethnic divisions do seem to be particularly challenging, perhaps because people can change their social class, political beliefs or religion but can't really change their ethnicity. Or perhaps because a sense of ethnicity is fundamental to being a nation in a way that class, beliefs or, these days, religion aren't.
But ethnically divided nations do sometimes survive and indeed thrive, e.g. Malaysia.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
She’s not wrong. We’re sliding into Northern Ireland-esque sectarianism and I doubt even Burnham can hold back the tide. I find it interesting that it seems one of the biggest issues in Israeli politics other than the obvious is that internal division fuelled by social media and the like is seen as one of the biggest threats to the state of Israel’s long term future. Nations cannot survive long if they are divided fundamentally.
The Wars of the Roses, the Civil War etc suggest that's not a universal truth.
It's actually nonsense. Nations are particularly enduring and cohesive. Many more nations have survived civil wars, revolutions, times of bitter division etc than have perished because of them, which is why the nation state is the best way to organise people, despite what Brussels desperately wants everybody to believe.
Ethnic divisions do seem to be particularly challenging, perhaps because people can change their social class, political beliefs or religion but can't really change their ethnicity. Or perhaps because a sense of ethnicity is fundamental to being a nation in a way that class, beliefs or, these days, religion aren't.
But ethnically divided nations do sometimes survive and indeed thrive, e.g. Malaysia.
Hate to be picky but given there are three Westminster by-elections next Thursday and only one is in England wasn’t question time coming from the wrong country?
Peter.
Frustratingly you would never know that there is also two other Westminster by-elections being held in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry on the 18th of June because there has been so little media coverage. I completely understand the intense media interest and scrutiny of the campaign in the Makerfield by-election because Andy Burnham sees this not only as his route back into Westminster but also because he clearly plans to challenge and replace Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader and PM.
But in so many news reports there is not even a mention of the fact there is actually going to be three Westminster by-elections that day, I am trying to think of the last time there has been so little attention paid to one far less two Westminster by-elections being held on the same night? And the Makerfield by-election even got its own special BBC QuestionTime special tonight, I genuinely feel the media are doing a bit of a disservice to the candidates and electorate of the other two by-elections by completely ignoring them.
I expect a Tory gain in Aberdeen South. Not sure about Arbroath.
I do not. Both will be comfortable SNP holds.
The SCons lost half their vote and more than half of their Holyrood seats just a month ago. The SLab vote held up rather better.
SCon will be doing well to retain 3rd place in either Aberdeen South or Arbroath and Broughty Ferry., and to beat Reform.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
She’s not wrong. We’re sliding into Northern Ireland-esque sectarianism and I doubt even Burnham can hold back the tide. I find it interesting that it seems one of the biggest issues in Israeli politics other than the obvious is that internal division fuelled by social media and the like is seen as one of the biggest threats to the state of Israel’s long term future. Nations cannot survive long if they are divided fundamentally.
She is wrong. Tommy Robinson's thuggish supporters are neither a new phenomenon nor one capable of creating the civil war that they desire. She needs to stop doom scrolling US Social Media.
OT rant: latest update to Edge browser has signed me out of all websites, including this one! Yes, it's only a minor inconvenience but another example of Microsoft not testing. Ah, it looks like they have turned on deleting cookies on closure, so it might have been the previous update that did it. And the sodding MSN feed is back.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
OT rant: latest update to Edge browser has signed me out of all websites, including this one! Yes, it's only a minor inconvenience but another example of Microsoft not testing. Ah, it looks like they have turned on deleting cookies on closure, so it might have been the previous update that did it. And the sodding MSN feed is back.
What's the difference between an intelligent Microsoft developer and Bigfoot?
There is very little news about. Not-Prince Andrew has a bruise and an entrepreneurial approach to landlordism. President Zelensky has written to President Putin. Andy Burnham wants to be Prime Minister.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
Your personal obsession with Kemi is hilarious.
I can only assume she once sacked you, refused to offer you a job, or rejected your advances.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
OT rant: latest update to Edge browser has signed me out of all websites, including this one! Yes, it's only a minor inconvenience but another example of Microsoft not testing. Ah, it looks like they have turned on deleting cookies on closure, so it might have been the previous update that did it. And the sodding MSN feed is back.
Use Brave Browser - it's Chromium with the Microsoft and Google specific crap removed.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
Funny how Badenoch can spend a couple of weeks coming across as reasonably sane and professional, then suddenly regresses into this doom scrolling nonsense.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
There is very little news about. Not-Prince Andrew has a bruise and an entrepreneurial approach to landlordism. President Zelensky has written to President Putin. Andy Burnham wants to be Prime Minister.
Morning, P.B. Yes, it's all a bit ho-hum. Unusually, I'm actually looking forward to the World Cup and Wimbledon.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
Funny how Badenoch can spend a couple of weeks coming across as reasonably sane and professional, then suddenly regresses into this doom scrolling nonsense.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
Yeah, she is not far off making the Conservatives appealing again (vs the alternatives rather than inherently) but definitely lacking consistency. She is worth sticking with as leading any of these parties at the moment is a poisoned chalice and she has some promising traits, and hopefully improves as she gets more experience.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
The Tories as Reform Lite will be doomed. Only way is for a one nation approach (read Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine). If they continue down the current right wing path they will be extinct at the next GE.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
The Tories are polling mid term against the most unpopular government that I can remember worse than their worst GE performance in 2 centuries. On current polling they will lose around half their existing seats. They just lost more than half of their seats in Holyrood. This is not a good performance by a LOTO.
I do not dislike Badenoch, and she is probably the best of the Conservatives limited leadership options. Her response to this weeks Farage riots was head and shoulders above Philips for example.
We are 3 years or so away from the next GE and things can change. Her best chance for the next GE is for a Reform melt down, and that is most likely to be achieved by relentlesly going for them on their half baked policies on non-Culture War issues. We saw with Kenyon last night how vacuous Reform is on these issues.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I really think that's a mistaken reading. If it weren't for the Burnham effect I think Reform would be on over 50% in this seat* - it is 32nd on their target list after all - and all the tactical voting in the world wouldn't be able to stop them.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
* The latest More in Common MRP has Reform on 46% and the Tories on 10% in Makerfield. In a mid-term by-election you might even expect the Reform vote to exceed 60%. If they only end up with ~40% that's not a result of anti-Reform tactical voting, that's Burnham winning over otherwise Reform voters.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
Next years English locals are in the Tories Shire heartlands. Does anyone expect anything other than losses varying from merely bad to catastrophic?
Even so she remains the best realistic option. Cleverly is just dull, Hunt too tainted, and most of the rest either wet behind the ears or mad as a box of frogs.
Can the Tory party recover? Yes, I think it can, but not until Reform and Farage are in the landfill of history, and I think that unlikely this side of 2 General Elections. Reform is their real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I really think that's a mistaken reading. If it weren't for the Burnham effect I think Reform would be on over 50% in this seat - it is 32nd on their target list after all - and all the tactical voting in the world wouldn't be able to stop them.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
I think your last paragraph is wrong. In the vast majority of seats it is obvious who the anti-Reform tactical vote is. This is because there is a sitting Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/Ind MP.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
Are you sure you are commenting under the right post? I'm struggling to see anything in Foxy's comment that merits this response!
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
Next years English locals are in the Tories Shire heartlands. Does anyone expect anything other than losses varying from merely bad to catastrophic?
Even so she remains the best realistic option. Cleverly is just dull, Hunt too tainted, and most of the rest either wet behind the ears or mad as a box of frogs.
Can the Tory party recover? Yes, I think it can, but not until Reform and Farage are in the landfill of history, and I think that unlikely this side of 2 General Elections. Reform is their real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.
Having said that, 2023 was the first set of local elections post-Trusstershambles, and Labour actually came out with more seats than the Conservatives.
If the Conservatives can't make gains from that baseline, they really are in trouble.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
Next years English locals are in the Tories Shire heartlands. Does anyone expect anything other than losses varying from merely bad to catastrophic?
Even so she remains the best realistic option. Cleverly is just dull, Hunt too tainted, and most of the rest either wet behind the ears or mad as a box of frogs.
Can the Tory party recover? Yes, I think it can, but not until Reform and Farage are in the landfill of history, and I think that unlikely this side of 2 General Elections. Reform is their real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.
Give the dislocation between her personal rating and that of her party is Kemi the William Hague du jour? How many pints can she drink?
Speaking of ratings..
Scottish poll on political leader favourability.👇 Ipsos, 22-29 May (1028)
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
Next years English locals are in the Tories Shire heartlands. Does anyone expect anything other than losses varying from merely bad to catastrophic?
Even so she remains the best realistic option. Cleverly is just dull, Hunt too tainted, and most of the rest either wet behind the ears or mad as a box of frogs.
Can the Tory party recover? Yes, I think it can, but not until Reform and Farage are in the landfill of history, and I think that unlikely this side of 2 General Elections. Reform is their real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.
Having said that, 2023 was the first set of local elections post-Trusstershambles, and Labour actually came out with more seats than the Conservatives.
If the Conservatives can't make gains from that baseline, they really are in trouble.
Though in that round of locals Reform only contested 471 of 8 063 contests. I think they will contest nearly all of them next year, and while they will eat some of other parties vote, their main course will be the Tory vote, as it was in Cumbria last night.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
Funny how Badenoch can spend a couple of weeks coming across as reasonably sane and professional, then suddenly regresses into this doom scrolling nonsense.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
Apart from anything else, it is one thing for me - a nobody - to waste my time doomscrolling on social media, but doesn't the leader of the opposition have better things to do with her time?
She could be meeting the voters. She could be meeting party donors. She could be talking to her MPs and policy advisors, or prospective candidates for the next election. She could be considering policy and the state of the country. She could be taking a break from politics to give her subconscious the time and space to draw everything together.
Instead she's immersed in the extreme unreality of social media and mistaking it for the real world.
Polanski has the same problem. One day all our politicians will be digital natives and then they will likely be more extreme than the voters. It will be a new kind of disconnect between the political class and the people.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
Are you sure you are commenting under the right post? I'm struggling to see anything in Foxy's comment that merits this response!
Good morning
@fitalass is right and the tiraid on here this morning is from the usual suspects who seem to want to see her fail which if she does puts Farage in no 10
@TSE responded to @Brixian59 last night by pointing out labour were polling at 2% and 2.7% in 1993 and does anyone need reminding what happened in 1997 ?
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I really think that's a mistaken reading. If it weren't for the Burnham effect I think Reform would be on over 50% in this seat - it is 32nd on their target list after all - and all the tactical voting in the world wouldn't be able to stop them.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
I think your last paragraph is wrong. In the vast majority of seats it is obvious who the anti-Reform tactical vote is. This is because there is a sitting Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/Ind MP.
But Labour have lost potentially around half their vote since the last general election, so the results of the last GE are not the starting point for tactical voting.
There will be loads of seats where the incumbent Labour MP is not best placed to defeat Reform. It's unrealistic to expect voters to re-elect the Labour government with another landslide majority after their major disappointments with that Labour government.
I did not know Russell Crowe's cousins captained New Zealand.
Clue is in the name, but the second point is that there really aren’t that many New Zealanders. It’s a bit like England in the Middle Ages. So much greater chance that people will know person X or are related.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
Funny how Badenoch can spend a couple of weeks coming across as reasonably sane and professional, then suddenly regresses into this doom scrolling nonsense.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
Apart from anything else, it is one thing for me - a nobody - to waste my time doomscrolling on social media, but doesn't the leader of the opposition have better things to do with her time?
She could be meeting the voters. She could be meeting party donors. She could be talking to her MPs and policy advisors, or prospective candidates for the next election. She could be considering policy and the state of the country. She could be taking a break from politics to give her subconscious the time and space to draw everything together.
Instead she's immersed in the extreme unreality of social media and mistaking it for the real world.
Polanski has the same problem. One day all our politicians will be digital natives and then they will likely be more extreme than the voters. It will be a new kind of disconnect between the political class and the people.
We’ve come a long way from Cameron Direct.
For those who don’t remember, this was where Cameron would meet a *non-selected* group of ordinary people, such as workers at a factory, and answer their questions on the fly.
The reactions from some in the political class, to this, were amusing.
As was the media conditions for broadcasting it - they wanted it turned into a focus group, carefully salted with activists with prepared questions.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
So, the BAMEs of the Tory Party spent the last 10 years demonising foreigners, and are now worried that people might become more racist. Did they think they were immune?
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
that 7% could simply be because the Tories don't look likely to win my constituency/ward anymore who else should I vote for.
I do wonder (and it's hard to work out) what percentage of Labour / Tory voters were anti Tory / anti Labour voters picking the other option that could win.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
The bias on PB.com has always been towards the centre, specifically, but not solely, the Lib Dems.
That's going to feel like a right-wing bias to those of us on the Left, and a left-wing bias to those on the Right, like fitalass.
But it is very male (and very educated and mostly numerate). Badenoch might be being underestimated as a result.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
Your personal obsession with Kemi is hilarious.
I can only assume she once sacked you, refused to offer you a job, or rejected your advances.
Rumour is she jilted him for Big_G. (A purely platonic relationship)
I suppose if all goes to plan and Burnham wins the seat, and the premiership - in three years time he will be leading the Labour Party into a general election representing a marginal seat.
If the next HoC was Lab 270 Ref 270 Con 60, what would the Tories do?
After they'd got over their surprise that Lib Dems plus SNP plus PC plus Green plus Northern Irish parties only had 50 seats in total?
There isn't a realistic scenario where Labour lose 140 seats but Nationalists don't see a benefit, whilst the Tories collapse but somehow so do the Lib Dems despite being almost entirely in Reform-unfriendly, Tory-facing seats.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
I agree with Foxy that she got the gig as the least worst alternative. She's not very good but seems now to have a minder who is guiding her towards the centre even though she tends towards hard right. Is Dave in the background?
You can bookmark me too. BigG already has but we agreed to disagree.
I did not know Russell Crowe's cousins captained New Zealand.
Clue is in the name, but the second point is that there really aren’t that many New Zealanders. It’s a bit like England in the Middle Ages. So much greater chance that people will know person X or are related.
Or Britain in the early 19thC. Anyone who was anyone knew everyone.
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I really think that's a mistaken reading. If it weren't for the Burnham effect I think Reform would be on over 50% in this seat - it is 32nd on their target list after all - and all the tactical voting in the world wouldn't be able to stop them.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
I think your last paragraph is wrong. In the vast majority of seats it is obvious who the anti-Reform tactical vote is. This is because there is a sitting Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/Ind MP.
But Labour have lost potentially around half their vote since the last general election, so the results of the last GE are not the starting point for tactical voting.
There will be loads of seats where the incumbent Labour MP is not best placed to defeat Reform. It's unrealistic to expect voters to re-elect the Labour government with another landslide majority after their major disappointments with that Labour government.
So you must concede that it is obvious in 200 or so Labour and all LD/SNP/PC/Green/Indy held seats who the tactical choice is. Which leave 200 or so Lab held seats vulnerable to Reform. In how many of these is there a non-Reform party that can win from second or third place? I suspect less than half, so in around 400 or so seats it is obvious who the non-Reform option is.
Most of the remainder are Tory held, there it is a trickier choice, particularly when Badenoch fails to differentiate from Reform policy.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
that 7% could simply be because the Tories don't look likely to win my constituency/ward anymore who else should I vote for.
I do wonder (and it's hard to work out) what percentage of Labour / Tory voters were anti Tory / anti Labour voters picking the other option that could win.
I am sure that's a sizeable percentage of 'not the current government' but historically 30% seemed to be the base for both parties even when they were being kicked out of office after some years.
I am sure we are now going through another major realignment of UK politics - it happens every century in the 20s*.
I would be surprised if Restore get over 4%. A few die hards who are very online and really see Reform as controlled opposition, but most will fold quite nicely into Reform.
I'm sticking with my "Restore Britain getting somewhere between 2% and 12%" prediction !
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
So, the BAMEs of the Tory Party spent the last 10 years demonising foreigners, and are now worried that people might become more racist. Did they think they were immune?
It always starts with the Muslims and Trans, but never ends there.
Two weeks this morning Burnham is most likely to be on his way to Parliament having stated last night he will join the labour leadership race
Starmer's immediate response was there is no race and there is a process
Starmer is living on another planet and if Burnham does arrive in Parliament then I expect Starmer's cabinet will tell him to go
I like Burnham and it remains to be seen how it unfolds but for all the anti Kemi stuff on here he openly praised his conservative opponent and Kemi on Question Time on their response to the Norwak scandal
For me I want Starmer gone, and the sooner the better and look forward to Andy v Kemi at PMQs
And for the avoidance of doubt this conservative would vote Burnham in Makerfield to beat Farage's mob
Kemi may fail and let Farage through, but she has improved immensely and there will always be a left right split but at present anyone wanting the best for our country is for Andy to succeed and Farage put back in his box
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
Funny how Badenoch can spend a couple of weeks coming across as reasonably sane and professional, then suddenly regresses into this doom scrolling nonsense.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
Apart from anything else, it is one thing for me - a nobody - to waste my time doomscrolling on social media, but doesn't the leader of the opposition have better things to do with her time?
She could be meeting the voters. She could be meeting party donors. She could be talking to her MPs and policy advisors, or prospective candidates for the next election. She could be considering policy and the state of the country. She could be taking a break from politics to give her subconscious the time and space to draw everything together.
Instead she's immersed in the extreme unreality of social media and mistaking it for the real world.
Polanski has the same problem. One day all our politicians will be digital natives and then they will likely be more extreme than the voters. It will be a new kind of disconnect between the political class and the people.
It's a version of the wider issue- by trusting social media to tell us what's going on out there, we all look at the world through a distorting window. That's always been a bit true, but the degree and deliberateness of distortion is now off-the-scale.
So everyone- left, right, centre- is fearful and angry all the time, because that is what makes more money for social media squillionaires.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!e.
It is neither her colour nor her gender that would concern me if I were a Conservative. I wouldn't be keen, if I wanted to win an election, on her propensity to speak first and think later.
But then it really isn't any of my business, so as you were.
Two weeks this morning Burnham is most likely to be on his way to Parliament having stated last night he will join the labour leadership race
Starmer's immediate response was there is no race and there is a process
Starmer is living on another planet and if Burnham does arrive in Parliament then I expect Starmer's cabinet will tell him to go
I like Burnham and it remains to be seen how it unfolds but for all the anti Kemi stuff on here he openly praised his conservative opponent and Kemi on Question Time on their response to the Norwak scandal
For me I want Starmer gone, and the sooner the better and look forward to Andy v Kemi at PMQs
And for the avoidance of doubt this conservative would vote Burnham in Makerfield to beat Farage's mob
Kemi may fail and let Farage through, but she has improved immensely and there will always be a left right split but at present anyone wanting the best for our country is for Andy to succeed and Farage put back in his box
All sensible points Big_G, except Starmer is not 'living on another planet'. What else could he say? He can hardly say 'Oh yes, I am just waiting for Andy to win and then I'm off'.
Comments
It’s a 1.7% Lab to Reform swing since 2024.
Burnham will absolutely walk this byelection, as I called from the start. And then walk a leadership contest where he quickly becomes the sole candidate.
What does he do then? I hope he follows through on actually changing stuff. As he has in God's own Lancashire and a few lucky bits of heathen Cheshire...
OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government.
And a class performer v some local semi pros.
But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform.
Rather than Labour v not Labour.
https://x.com/BasilTheGreat/status/2062401423791263829?s=20
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/2062625887925703038?s=20
He had nowt to gain and everything to lose. On the surface.
I was asked when this by election was called how relevant Brexit would be.
I said almost no one I knew IRL ever mentioned it.
That opinion was repeated on QT tonight when Fiona Bruce tried to raise it as a killer point. Not a single panellist demurred. Nor did anyone in the audience take it up.
Yet the London media on both sides just can't let it go.
A great number of Big G's.
Exc: Kemi Badenoch has told me that conflict over identity politics in the UK could lead to a potential civil war in the long term.
However, when that is locally obvious it's a different story.
Peter.
But in so many news reports there is not even a mention of the fact there is actually going to be three Westminster by-elections that day, I am trying to think of the last time there has been so little attention paid to one far less two Westminster by-elections being held on the same night? And the Makerfield by-election even got its own special BBC QuestionTime special tonight, I genuinely feel the media are doing a bit of a disservice to the candidates and electorate of the other two by-elections by completely ignoring them.
https://bsky.app/profile/drjennings.bsky.social/post/3mnestsyxuc22
https://bsky.app/profile/jack-bailey.co.uk/post/3mneqte4w4k2o
https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/zbmp3_v2
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new)
Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%)
Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%)
Green 121 (5.1%/new)
Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
But it's a huge challenge to a democracy.
Ethnic divisions do seem to be particularly challenging, perhaps because people can change their social class, political beliefs or religion but can't really change their ethnicity. Or perhaps because a sense of ethnicity is fundamental to being a nation in a way that class, beliefs or, these days, religion aren't.
But ethnically divided nations do sometimes survive and indeed thrive, e.g. Malaysia.
The SCons lost half their vote and more than half of their Holyrood seats just a month ago. The SLab vote held up rather better.
SCon will be doing well to retain 3rd place in either Aberdeen South or Arbroath and Broughty Ferry., and to beat Reform.
Trump just addressed Hunter Biden's comeback, saying that his past won't help him in a presidential election...
@HunterBiden
Are you at least considering?
https://x.com/DavidSchwartz70/status/2062639988932530663
I am now.
https://x.com/HunterBiden/status/2062658636535521744
The US is currently mad enough that I'm only 99% sure that Biden is joking too.
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Some people believe there is a Bigfoot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMbVmXvTDdU
I did not know Russell Crowe's cousins captained New Zealand.
I can only assume she once sacked you, refused to offer you a job, or rejected your advances.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2062233510434271507
Shaping up as one the worst weeks of the SMO for Putin.
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
I think it’s evidence that social media or perhaps current affairs more generally are extremely addictive. Always need an IMF bailout, a civil war, a stabbing, a terrorist attack to keep things exciting.
Must be very frustrating if you’re a Conservative supporter. It’s a serious flaw.
Yes, it's all a bit ho-hum. Unusually, I'm actually looking forward to the World Cup and Wimbledon.
I do not dislike Badenoch, and she is probably the best of the Conservatives limited leadership options. Her response to this weeks Farage riots was head and shoulders above Philips for example.
We are 3 years or so away from the next GE and things can change. Her best chance for the next GE is for a Reform melt down, and that is most likely to be achieved by relentlesly going for them on their half baked policies on non-Culture War issues. We saw with Kenyon last night how vacuous Reform is on these issues.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
* The latest More in Common MRP has Reform on 46% and the Tories on 10% in Makerfield. In a mid-term by-election you might even expect the Reform vote to exceed 60%. If they only end up with ~40% that's not a result of anti-Reform tactical voting, that's Burnham winning over otherwise Reform voters.
Even so she remains the best realistic option. Cleverly is just dull, Hunt too tainted, and most of the rest either wet behind the ears or mad as a box of frogs.
Can the Tory party recover? Yes, I think it can, but not until Reform and Farage are in the landfill of history, and I think that unlikely this side of 2 General Elections. Reform is their real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.
If the Conservatives can't make gains from that baseline, they really are in trouble.
Speaking of ratings..
Scottish poll on political leader favourability.👇
Ipsos, 22-29 May (1028)
+2 Swinney
-11 Cole-Hamilton
-11 Mackay
-15 Greer
-32 Sarwar
-36 Findlay
-48 Offord
-32 Badenoch
-40 Starmer
-49 Farage
https://x.com/ammacj/status/2062586526576320677?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
She could be meeting the voters. She could be meeting party donors. She could be talking to her MPs and policy advisors, or prospective candidates for the next election. She could be considering policy and the state of the country. She could be taking a break from politics to give her subconscious the time and space to draw everything together.
Instead she's immersed in the extreme unreality of social media and mistaking it for the real world.
Polanski has the same problem. One day all our politicians will be digital natives and then they will likely be more extreme than the voters. It will be a new kind of disconnect between the political class and the people.
But you all knew that already.
@fitalass is right and the tiraid on here this morning is from the usual suspects who seem to want to see her fail which if she does puts Farage in no 10
@TSE responded to @Brixian59 last night by pointing out labour were polling at 2% and 2.7% in 1993 and does anyone need reminding what happened in 1997 ?
There will be loads of seats where the incumbent Labour MP is not best placed to defeat Reform. It's unrealistic to expect voters to re-elect the Labour government with another landslide majority after their major disappointments with that Labour government.
For those who don’t remember, this was where Cameron would meet a *non-selected* group of ordinary people, such as workers at a factory, and answer their questions on the fly.
The reactions from some in the political class, to this, were amusing.
As was the media conditions for broadcasting it - they wanted it turned into a focus group, carefully salted with activists with prepared questions.
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
I do wonder (and it's hard to work out) what percentage of Labour / Tory voters were anti Tory / anti Labour voters picking the other option that could win.
That's going to feel like a right-wing bias to those of us on the Left, and a left-wing bias to those on the Right, like fitalass.
But it is very male (and very educated and mostly numerate). Badenoch might be being underestimated as a result.
When the Greenwich Meridian has moved to Pyongyang, for some it is suddenly out-to-lunch time at 7am.
(A purely platonic relationship)
There isn't a realistic scenario where Labour lose 140 seats but Nationalists don't see a benefit, whilst the Tories collapse but somehow so do the Lib Dems despite being almost entirely in Reform-unfriendly, Tory-facing seats.
You can bookmark me too. BigG already has but we agreed to disagree.
Anyone who was anyone knew everyone.
Most of the remainder are Tory held, there it is a trickier choice, particularly when Badenoch fails to differentiate from Reform policy.
I am sure we are now going through another major realignment of UK politics - it happens every century in the 20s*.
(*Well, it happened last century anyway.)
(IIRC)
Starmer's immediate response was there is no race and there is a process
Starmer is living on another planet and if Burnham does arrive in Parliament then I expect Starmer's cabinet will tell him to go
I like Burnham and it remains to be seen how it unfolds but for all the anti Kemi stuff on here he openly praised his conservative opponent and Kemi on Question Time on their response to the Norwak scandal
For me I want Starmer gone, and the sooner the better and look forward to Andy v Kemi at PMQs
And for the avoidance of doubt this conservative would vote Burnham in Makerfield to beat Farage's mob
Kemi may fail and let Farage through, but she has improved immensely and there will always be a left right split but at present anyone wanting the best for our country is for Andy to succeed and Farage put back in his box
Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
So everyone- left, right, centre- is fearful and angry all the time, because that is what makes more money for social media squillionaires.
But then it really isn't any of my business, so as you were.