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As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,372
    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    I think people care less about specific policy or ideology than politically minded people can concieve of. People (be they young people, WWC or whoever) respond if you offer them something to help them. I think a lot of people don't care whether a party promises to help them with rising food bills with a subsidy or a tax cuts, so long as there's something. It's when mainstream parties throw their hands up and say 'it's just the international situation' or 'it's the bond markets' that makes people angry.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Nigelb said:

    ‘My 15-year-old relative was killed for refusing to marry her cousin. My family celebrated by dancing in the street’

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jun/01/kawthar-al-husayjawi-killed-refusing-forced-marriage-marry-family-celebrated-iraq
    ..What terrifies me most is how easy murder has become for men in Iraq. They no longer fear the law or the state, because they see corruption everywhere. Everyone concealed what happened. Apparently a lawyer will take on the case, the body will be located and her brother will turn himself in as the sole perpetrator so that the case will be closed as an “honour” killing.

    Although Iraqi law does not directly mention the phrase “honour” killing, there are mitigating excuses in law that address the crime of killing motivated by honour. Someone killing his wife or close female relative after finding in an act of adultery shall be punished by imprisonment for a period not exceeding three years. In many cases, the crime is not viewed as a deliberate, fully constituted murder, but rather as a family incident that got out of control.

    Iraq’s new laws permitting children as young as nine years old to marry is terrifying to me, because a child pulled out of school and pushed into early marriage becomes more vulnerable and less able to protect herself or object to the violence she is subjected to. Kawthar had not yet reached an age that allowed her to understand life, yet everyone was treating her as a woman who must be subdued, monitored and punished.

    A challenging article for the "at least we freed Iraq from Saddam" crowd.
    They'll always have "Yebbut...WMD...45 minutes..."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,331
    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,493
    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted this from Peter Kellner - a sobering summary of the capacity of party members to elect the dimmest and most off putting candidate available as leader.


    https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-power-to-choose-party-leaders?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=200022234&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    It begs the question of the reason to elect party leaders. Implicitly Peter assumes the point is to pick a winner, but the purpose of parties is inter alia to pick a leader who represents members while being potentially electable. I'd argue that Corbyn fitted that well the first time round, but should have stood down after losing. There is no point in simply electing whoever MPs like, which is influenced by all kinds of personal ambitions and calculations as well as winning. It relegates membership to a supporters' club, and that will result in ever-diminishing numbers.

    What if party members are wildly out of step with the public? Then the party should lose, and perhaps win the next time.
    I sympathise with this but you miss out a significant element. Every major party leader is a potential PM. Being a really good or even great PM, as time proves, involves a very distinct set of qualities. Election winning is one and essential but only one, and while political positioning is necessary, it isn't any use unless you have the qualities of leadership, team building, talent spotting and nurturing, problem solving, prioritising, communication, steel backbone, listening to the best, courage, vision and so on.

    My experience, and this is a bit sobering, is that the techniques that work best in discerning relevant qualities for high level jobs include stuff like psychometric testing, as well of course as their past history and achievements. (The fact that most people instinctively regard all this as fantasy rubbish gives its users an advantage, as it is. counterintuitively, so useful.)

    We are miles away from rigorously testing for relevant qualities in PMs, and it shows.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    At least that 'other planet' is going to survive as a viable entity.

    And Good Morning one and all!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,254
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted this from Peter Kellner - a sobering summary of the capacity of party members to elect the dimmest and most off putting candidate available as leader.


    https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-power-to-choose-party-leaders?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=200022234&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    It begs the question of the reason to elect party leaders. Implicitly Peter assumes the point is to pick a winner, but the purpose of parties is inter alia to pick a leader who represents members while being potentially electable. I'd argue that Corbyn fitted that well the first time round, but should have stood down after losing. There is no point in simply electing whoever MPs like, which is influenced by all kinds of personal ambitions and calculations as well as winning. It relegates membership to a supporters' club, and that will result in ever-diminishing numbers.

    What if party members are wildly out of step with the public? Then the party should lose, and perhaps win the next time.
    I sympathise with this but you miss out a significant element. Every major party leader is a potential PM. Being a really good or even great PM, as time proves, involves a very distinct set of qualities. Election winning is one and essential but only one, and while political positioning is necessary, it isn't any use unless you have the qualities of leadership, team building, talent spotting and nurturing, problem solving, prioritising, communication, steel backbone, listening to the best, courage, vision and so on.

    My experience, and this is a bit sobering, is that the techniques that work best in discerning relevant qualities for high level jobs include stuff like psychometric testing, as well of course as their past history and achievements. (The fact that most people instinctively regard all this as fantasy rubbish gives its users an advantage, as it is. counterintuitively, so useful.)

    We are miles away from rigorously testing for relevant qualities in PMs, and it shows.
    It doesn't help that we restrict the candidates to people who have been selected and elected as legislators, and there is no testing for their abilities to be successful executives either
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted this from Peter Kellner - a sobering summary of the capacity of party members to elect the dimmest and most off putting candidate available as leader.


    https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-power-to-choose-party-leaders?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=200022234&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    It begs the question of the reason to elect party leaders. Implicitly Peter assumes the point is to pick a winner, but the purpose of parties is inter alia to pick a leader who represents members while being potentially electable. I'd argue that Corbyn fitted that well the first time round, but should have stood down after losing. There is no point in simply electing whoever MPs like, which is influenced by all kinds of personal ambitions and calculations as well as winning. It relegates membership to a supporters' club, and that will result in ever-diminishing numbers.

    What if party members are wildly out of step with the public? Then the party should lose, and perhaps win the next time.
    I sympathise with this but you miss out a significant element. Every major party leader is a potential PM. Being a really good or even great PM, as time proves, involves a very distinct set of qualities. Election winning is one and essential but only one, and while political positioning is necessary, it isn't any use unless you have the qualities of leadership, team building, talent spotting and nurturing, problem solving, prioritising, communication, steel backbone, listening to the best, courage, vision and so on.

    My experience, and this is a bit sobering, is that the techniques that work best in discerning relevant qualities for high level jobs include stuff like psychometric testing, as well of course as their past history and achievements. (The fact that most people instinctively regard all this as fantasy rubbish gives its users an advantage, as it is. counterintuitively, so useful.)

    We are miles away from rigorously testing for relevant qualities in PMs, and it shows.
    To be fair, so is everywhere else. At least we haven't 'elected' a raving, grifting, loon like Trump. Boris was bad enough but at least he recognised that he'd been caught and ran away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:
    Name recognition is probably doing a lot of work there...

    But Pete does have name recognition..
    I’m watching Andy Beshear and Josh Shapiro from the Dem side. It’s going to be a busy contest and yes it’s mostly name recognition at this stage. Watch for who’s leading the big rallies ahead of the mid-terms.

    On the Rep side it’s going to be Vance v Rubio, with a possible side of Ron DeSantis.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,254

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,254
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    theProle said:

    It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

    The plates are shifting.

    If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.

    They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.
    Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.
    Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.
    No, it is not.

    Lump of labour is a fallacy.

    That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.
    The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.

    I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.

    However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.
    We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.

    One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.
    Because that is not meaningful.

    A peak to not quite so peak fall of 20% in real terms is pretty meaningless in fact.

    It would take an approximately 70% to 80% fall from here in real terms to get a meaningful reduction back to rational price to income ratios that existed in the 90s.
    A 70-80% fall happening very quickly would also generate problems. A 20% fall is in the right direction and a quarter of the way there, while not being too sudden a change, so I don’t see why you’re being so sniffy about it.
    You’d ideally want to see somewhere around 4-5% fall per year in money terms, such that someone on a 25y repayment mortgage is not going to encounter negative equity.

    There’s still a lot of pent-up demand outside London though, a lot of housebuilding and/or population reduction required before prices fall significantly.
    4-5% falls in cash terms would cause a lot of negative equity.

    1-2% would be the most we could sensibly take.

    High LTV mortgages are at their highest level since the GFC, at (best number I an find) about 8% of the market in 2025 Q4.
    Not only that. With the high level of deflation who’d be buying ? The market would slow down further.

    Those wanting to get on the ladder would simply hold off waiting for further falls.

    Also the consequential knock on effect to trades and tradesmen would see a decline in work as new movers often do work to their new homes. Our new neighbour is.

    As always, be careful what people wish for.
    The problems all stem from treating a house as primarily an investment product, rather than simply somewhere to live.

    People would still buy houses even if they don’t go up in value. Banks would be more careful about loan to value calculations though, you’d probably need at least 10% deposit.
    The problems seem to stem from treating a house as an investment that can only go one way, and buy-to-let as a business model that can only provide profit. Where is the risk?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,466

    Nigelb said:

    ‘My 15-year-old relative was killed for refusing to marry her cousin. My family celebrated by dancing in the street’

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jun/01/kawthar-al-husayjawi-killed-refusing-forced-marriage-marry-family-celebrated-iraq
    ..What terrifies me most is how easy murder has become for men in Iraq. They no longer fear the law or the state, because they see corruption everywhere. Everyone concealed what happened. Apparently a lawyer will take on the case, the body will be located and her brother will turn himself in as the sole perpetrator so that the case will be closed as an “honour” killing.

    Although Iraqi law does not directly mention the phrase “honour” killing, there are mitigating excuses in law that address the crime of killing motivated by honour. Someone killing his wife or close female relative after finding in an act of adultery shall be punished by imprisonment for a period not exceeding three years. In many cases, the crime is not viewed as a deliberate, fully constituted murder, but rather as a family incident that got out of control.

    Iraq’s new laws permitting children as young as nine years old to marry is terrifying to me, because a child pulled out of school and pushed into early marriage becomes more vulnerable and less able to protect herself or object to the violence she is subjected to. Kawthar had not yet reached an age that allowed her to understand life, yet everyone was treating her as a woman who must be subdued, monitored and punished.

    Golly, I'd read on here that Iraq was largely sorted out, albeit at the cost 100ks of lives.

    You know which previous leader of Iraq wouldn't have stood for this sort of stuff?
    Pol Pot probably would have dropped a bridge on them. Mao to. Pinochet actually had an issue with Law Of Lek types in very remote areas - which he fixed with a very Pinochet style.
    by being Enver Hoxha in Albania, you mean.

    Killing 100-200,000 civilians, destroying all public administration and then having the entire national bank reserves stolen by ISIS, who then proceed to kill another 100,00 civilians. Strangely, "I and the public know, what every schoolboy learns: those to whom evil is done, do evil in return".

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    If it weren't for our broken planning system behemoth firms like Barrett would not exist.

    In countries with healthy planning regulations, smaller developments by smaller firms are much more common who have lower overheads and can compete more agilely.

    The problem is our planning system keeps out the new entrants allowing Barratt et al to keep an oligopoly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    If Labour fails to address the issues that matter to WWC voters, of course they will move away from the party.

    Moreso when the party gives the impression of not wanting votes "from the likes of you".

    But at least the north London supper party crowd can feel superior, which is the most important thing.
    Dan Carden made the point, unanswered by Labour so far, as to whether or not the party wants to represent these communities going forward.

    I’d suspect a major chunk of it would rather get into bed with the Lib Dem’s and greens and forget the working class who they regard as sinners who need to see the error of their ways as opposed to seeing that labour is the problem.
    We're about to get a further reminder of how far Labout dislikes them - as the England flags go up for the World Cup...
    Who’s going to be this year’s Emily Thornberry? Place your bets now!

    Someone in Makerfield will make some comment on England flags, or suggest that we should boycot the WC because OrangeManBad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    theProle said:

    It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

    The plates are shifting.

    If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.

    They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.
    Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.
    Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.
    No, it is not.

    Lump of labour is a fallacy.

    That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.
    The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.

    I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.

    However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.
    We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.

    One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.
    Because that is not meaningful.

    A peak to not quite so peak fall of 20% in real terms is pretty meaningless in fact.

    It would take an approximately 70% to 80% fall from here in real terms to get a meaningful reduction back to rational price to income ratios that existed in the 90s.
    A 70-80% fall happening very quickly would also generate problems. A 20% fall is in the right direction and a quarter of the way there, while not being too sudden a change, so I don’t see why you’re being so sniffy about it.
    You’d ideally want to see somewhere around 4-5% fall per year in money terms, such that someone on a 25y repayment mortgage is not going to encounter negative equity.

    There’s still a lot of pent-up demand outside London though, a lot of housebuilding and/or population reduction required before prices fall significantly.
    4-5% falls in cash terms would cause a lot of negative equity.

    1-2% would be the most we could sensibly take.

    High LTV mortgages are at their highest level since the GFC, at (best number I an find) about 8% of the market in 2025 Q4.
    Not only that. With the high level of deflation who’d be buying ? The market would slow down further.

    Those wanting to get on the ladder would simply hold off waiting for further falls.

    Also the consequential knock on effect to trades and tradesmen would see a decline in work as new movers often do work to their new homes. Our new neighbour is.

    As always, be careful what people wish for.
    The problems all stem from treating a house as primarily an investment product, rather than simply somewhere to live.

    People would still buy houses even if they don’t go up in value. Banks would be more careful about loan to value calculations though, you’d probably need at least 10% deposit.
    The problems seem to stem from treating a house as an investment that can only go one way, and buy-to-let as a business model that can only provide profit. Where is the risk?
    The reason they are an "investment" is that systemic policy has been to build far less than demand for decades. Which guaranteed enormous returns. In addition, this has twisted the investment market to turn everything into a property deal. See the BritVolt comedy.

    Some solutions -

    1) Nuclear war with Russia to reduce the population. A study back in the 1970s suggested that because the attacks would be concentrated on the cities, and the collapse in the food supply would starve survivors rapidly, that there would be a post war housing surplus.
    2) Heavens Gate style mass suicide.
    3) Build more fucking houses.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    An article from the Telegraph in a similar vein

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/housebuilders-have-crumbled-in-value-can-they-ever-rebuild/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    If Labour fails to address the issues that matter to WWC voters, of course they will move away from the party.

    Moreso when the party gives the impression of not wanting votes "from the likes of you".

    But at least the north London supper party crowd can feel superior, which is the most important thing.
    Dan Carden made the point, unanswered by Labour so far, as to whether or not the party wants to represent these communities going forward.

    I’d suspect a major chunk of it would rather get into bed with the Lib Dem’s and greens and forget the working class who they regard as sinners who need to see the error of their ways as opposed to seeing that labour is the problem.
    We're about to get a further reminder of how far Labout dislikes them - as the England flags go up for the World Cup...
    Who’s going to be this year’s Emily Thornberry? Place your bets now!

    Someone in Makerfield will make some comment on England flags, or suggest that we should boycot the WC because OrangeManBad.
    Orange Man will almost certainly do some crazy stuff during the WC. I can see Iran struggling thru immigration before their games in particular. Hope Fifa have some backup plans in place.

    This is not TDS. TDS is not expecting it or accepting it as normal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Unlike Donald.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Trump should remember the Iranians ensured the US embassy hostages were not released until after Carter was out of office - by minutes. Just to deny him one last minor consolation prize.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    There is another story in the construction business, and that is the collapse in prices of apartment blocks, especially for the elderly, as high annual service and maintenance charges make them unaffordable
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    Not everyone who studies a subject goes on to do it. Some are more likely too - pharmacy, for instance, you are pretty much saying at 18 that you want to be a pharmacist. But take chemistry. No way to all chemistry graduates go on and work in the chemical field - there are not that many jobs. But a chemistry degree is used as a route into other professions as it is seen a quality and with a decent level of analytical thinking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    And most of the actual sports journalists will have graduated in English or other more traditional subject.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,499

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    An article from the Telegraph in a similar vein

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/housebuilders-have-crumbled-in-value-can-they-ever-rebuild/
    Questor usually gives share tips. I can't read the article (paywall) - is he a buyer at these levels?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    I've always thought that if big developers had over leveraged themselves they should go bust and be replaced by new entrants into the market. And I'm not even a libertarian.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    There is no meaningful difference from a public funding perspective as to whether someone goes to an institution labeled as a “FE college” or one labeled as a “university”. What matters is whether the course is deemed worthy of public funding/subsidy. The obsession with labels is a complete and utter waste of time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    Not everyone who studies a subject goes on to do it. Some are more likely too - pharmacy, for instance, you are pretty much saying at 18 that you want to be a pharmacist. But take chemistry. No way to all chemistry graduates go on and work in the chemical field - there are not that many jobs. But a chemistry degree is used as a route into other professions as it is seen a quality and with a decent level of analytical thinking.
    Of course, but lets be honest with ourselves. It may be more glamourous and fun for students to do sports journalism, but in future we would be better off training 60 sports journalists and 540 plumbers rather than 600 sports journalists. So why won't we do it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    Stocky said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    An article from the Telegraph in a similar vein

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/housebuilders-have-crumbled-in-value-can-they-ever-rebuild/
    Questor usually gives share tips. I can't read the article (paywall) - is he a buyer at these levels?
    This seems to be relevant

    'By contrast, there is not much good news around right now, but that is just the sort of scenario which may attract contrarian hunters of deep value, who are prepared to research unloved stocks and wait patiently for things to get better.

    One thing in the favour of the builders is that their shares are unloved: all of them, bar one, trade below one times tangible net asset, or book, value per share.'
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    Like I said, it doesn’t matter what the qualification or the institution is called, be it a university or a college or otherwise. All that matters is the strength and respectability of the qualification and its issuing institution.
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 34
    Or the reason we aren't building enough houses is just affordability.

    Most young people earn on average less than £35k in their twenties so they can afford about £160k. A new build studio in many parts of the south of England costs over £250k...that's a £90k difference.

    Why make a product that your potential customers can't afford to buy.

    A young couple in the South East outside London might earn around £80k between them if doing well but that still only gets to £360 when a one bedroom new build can easily be £450k plus.

    Higher wages or cheaper houses, but business say they can't pay higher wages and triple lock pensioners want to keep the nest egg equity in their owned outright homes, let alone sell them to pay for care!

    Peter.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,126
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    I've always thought that if big developers had over leveraged themselves they should go bust and be replaced by new entrants into the market. And I'm not even a libertarian.
    Regulatory Capture.

    If you let them, government and big organisations will get closer and closer. Until the big org is practically a government department.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
    Whether its in-house or sub-contracted is moot, the point either way is its contracted and costed.

    Churning out thousands of pages of documentation is affordable if you are doing so for a development of hundreds or thousands of homes which you will have oligopoly power to drip onto the market at maximum prices.

    It is not affordable if you are a small developer looking to build one home or a handful of homes.

    In countries with zonal automatic permission where planning does not need to be asked for with such documentation small developers build a house or a few houses at a time as demanded. Lower costs, lower overhead and most importantly far more competition.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    edited June 1

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    I remember once reading an article on the pros and cons of the American political system and their presidential elections were cited in both columns. The cons that we all know, the money domination, the partisanship, etc etc, were balanced by one big pro.

    Which was (I recall reading) that the sheer prolonged intensity of the process, the demands made of The Candidate as they Run, first for their party nomination, then in the general, 24/7 exposed, every move every word, to the media and the watching electorate, that having to go through this white hot crucible of pure unfettered scrutiny for the best part of two years meant that, regardless of their precise political positioning or ideology or personality type, whoever emerged would at least be up to the job.

    So that was that article.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    Sweeney74 said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
    Why should it be different than the training now?

    The problem is the idea that at 18 you must spend three years doing nothing but study for a degree, in a residential course, in a fairly randomly selected subject.

    See the silly argument over nurse and degrees - "we can either train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree. Or we train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @annmarie

    “It is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively ‘chirping’”

    https://x.com/annmarie/status/2061375863656980579?s=20
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,331

    Or the reason we aren't building enough houses is just affordability.

    Most young people earn on average less than £35k in their twenties so they can afford about £160k. A new build studio in many parts of the south of England costs over £250k...that's a £90k difference.

    Why make a product that your potential customers can't afford to buy.

    A young couple in the South East outside London might earn around £80k between them if doing well but that still only gets to £360 when a one bedroom new build can easily be £450k plus.

    Higher wages or cheaper houses, but business say they can't pay higher wages and triple lock pensioners want to keep the nest egg equity in their owned outright homes, let alone sell them to pay for care!

    Peter.

    The solution is this:

    Local Housing Associations borrow at government rates to build on land owned / given planning consent by the council.

    Apartment blocks built for rent.

    Apartments are Not For Sale. And thus a sensible non-market rent can be set.

    This collapses the rentier market, either flooding property onto the market or consolidating the sector into proper private sector rental companies and not dodgepots.

    Market corrects, rents don't consume the entirety of wages, people have cash to spend in the economy.

    Growth.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
    Whether its in-house or sub-contracted is moot, the point either way is its contracted and costed.

    Churning out thousands of pages of documentation is affordable if you are doing so for a development of hundreds or thousands of homes which you will have oligopoly power to drip onto the market at maximum prices.

    It is not affordable if you are a small developer looking to build one home or a handful of homes.

    In countries with zonal automatic permission where planning does not need to be asked for with such documentation small developers build a house or a few houses at a time as demanded. Lower costs, lower overhead and most importantly far more competition.
    This is pedanticbetting.com and I was correcting Sandpit
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    edited June 1
    Sweeney74 said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
    Indeed, the advantage of apprenticeships is that people can earn a salary while working instead of paying fees.

    What is remarkable is that jobs that used to be done via either on-the-job training or apprenticeships, like nursing, now not only require degrees but most of that degree is "on placement" where they are working full-time, but not getting paid to do that work, and not only that but they are paying fees in order to be able to do that work.

    Then with no guaranteed job at the end after spending 3 years working for free at your own cost.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Or the reason we aren't building enough houses is just affordability.

    Most young people earn on average less than £35k in their twenties so they can afford about £160k. A new build studio in many parts of the south of England costs over £250k...that's a £90k difference.

    Why make a product that your potential customers can't afford to buy.

    A young couple in the South East outside London might earn around £80k between them if doing well but that still only gets to £360 when a one bedroom new build can easily be £450k plus.

    Higher wages or cheaper houses, but business say they can't pay higher wages and triple lock pensioners want to keep the nest egg equity in their owned outright homes, let alone sell them to pay for care!

    Peter.

    The answer to that is the state is already paying for large numbers of young peoples time through benefits, including UC that subsidises low paying employers, and housing benefit to landlords.

    So the people who can afford to build are the government using young workers, training them up and making them into future tax payers rather than benefit recipients, whilst also reducing future housing benefit payments to landlords, and increasing future labour mobility.

    It is one of the few political stories that is plausible, workable and easy enough to sell to voters. Time someone, anyone, tried to do so.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    Sweeney74 said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
    Indeed, the advantage of apprenticeships is that people can earn a salary while working instead of paying fees.

    What is remarkable is that jobs that used to be done via either on-the-job training or apprenticeships, like nursing, now not only require degrees but most of that degree is "on placement" where they are working full-time, but not getting paid to do that work, and not only that but they are paying fees in order to be able to do that work.

    Then with no guaranteed job at the end after spending 3 years working for free at your own cost.
    Halfwit apprentices are paid while training
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    Like I said, it doesn’t matter what the qualification or the institution is called, be it a university or a college or otherwise. All that matters is the strength and respectability of the qualification and its issuing institution.
    The last point will become a disaster with apprenticeships in a few years, I reckon.

    An apprenticeship with Rolls Royce (Jet engineering making side) will be transferable and valuable. Some other companies?

    The inevitable fraud and lies must be well under way. The Panorama program about it practically writes itself.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    edited June 1

    Or the reason we aren't building enough houses is just affordability.

    Most young people earn on average less than £35k in their twenties so they can afford about £160k. A new build studio in many parts of the south of England costs over £250k...that's a £90k difference.

    Why make a product that your potential customers can't afford to buy.

    A young couple in the South East outside London might earn around £80k between them if doing well but that still only gets to £360 when a one bedroom new build can easily be £450k plus.

    Higher wages or cheaper houses, but business say they can't pay higher wages and triple lock pensioners want to keep the nest egg equity in their owned outright homes, let alone sell them to pay for care!

    Peter.

    The answer to that is the state is already paying for large numbers of young peoples time through benefits, including UC that subsidises low paying employers, and housing benefit to landlords.

    So the people who can afford to build are the government using young workers, training them up and making them into future tax payers rather than benefit recipients, whilst also reducing future housing benefit payments to landlords, and increasing future labour mobility.

    It is one of the few political stories that is plausible, workable and easy enough to sell to voters. Time someone, anyone, tried to do so.
    Could also add in a scheme that as well as getting a qualification the youngsters doing the work get first dibs on some of the newly built council housing. Think that would be very sellable to some disillusioned younger (wannabee) workers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    edited June 1

    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
    Whether its in-house or sub-contracted is moot, the point either way is its contracted and costed.

    Churning out thousands of pages of documentation is affordable if you are doing so for a development of hundreds or thousands of homes which you will have oligopoly power to drip onto the market at maximum prices.

    It is not affordable if you are a small developer looking to build one home or a handful of homes.

    In countries with zonal automatic permission where planning does not need to be asked for with such documentation small developers build a house or a few houses at a time as demanded. Lower costs, lower overhead and most importantly far more competition.
    This is pedanticbetting.com and I was correcting Sandpit
    It is enjoyable to see senior managers who think that outsourcing something *you do every damn day* actually helps, though.

    EDIT: The Big Housebuilders have outsourced building houses. With multiple levels of outsourcing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    I remember once reading an article on the pros and cons of the American political system. Their presidential elections were cited in both columns. The cons that we all know, the money domination, the partisanship, etc etc, were balanced by one big pro. Which was (I recall reading) that the sheer prolonged intensity of the process, the demands made of The Candidate as they Run, first for their party nomination, then in the general, 24/7 exposed, every move every word, to the media and the watching electorate, that having to go through this white hot crucible of pure unfettered scrutiny for the best part of two years meant that, regardless of their precise political positioning or ideology or personality type, whoever emerged would at least be up to the job.

    So that was that article.
    Then we see who’s actually come out of this process in, say, the past decade… some of the most unsuitable candidates of all time.

    The problem with the primary process is that the party’s registered voters tend to be more extreme politically than the general population of the country, so the way to win the primaries is to go way off to the side.

    This could be a massive problem for the Democrats in ‘28, if the Bernie Sanders / AOC / Mamdani supporters have too much influence in the primaries. The primary voters in general are a lot more centrist than the activist base.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    In 1953 Canvey Island was flooded. Over the next year or so a new wall was built, higher and stronger But the big developers wouldn't come near the place, so dozens of small scale builders built quite cheaply over the next five or ten years and the population rocketed.
    Before the flood the population had been about 10,000; in the next ten years it went up to 40,000. Houses were cheaper on the Island, too.
    Normal practice was for a builder to buy a piece of land big enough for three or four houses, build one for himself while working for someone else, then live in it and build another two or three on the site.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    Nigelb said:
    Buttigieg has already win Iowa in 2020 and was runner up in New Hampshire, just 1% behind Sanders, so he already has an advantage in the early states.

    I think Buttigieg v Vance is a strong possibility for 2028
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    Sweeney74 said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
    Why should it be different than the training now?

    The problem is the idea that at 18 you must spend three years doing nothing but study for a degree, in a residential course, in a fairly randomly selected subject.

    See the silly argument over nurse and degrees - "we can either train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree. Or we train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree"
    Not sure we're disagreeing here...

    We don't need degrees for vocational jobs. Simple as that.

    The mistake we’ve made is assuming that every worthwhile profession needs to be turned into a degree profession.

    Plumbing, carpentry, electrical work and many other skilled trades require extensive training, knowledge and practical experience. What they don’t necessarily require is a university degree.

    Nursing is a good example. The training is just as demanding as it ever was. Calling the qualification a degree doesn’t automatically make nurses more skilled, better paid, or more respected.

    When I’m choosing a plumber, I don’t care which university they attended. I care whether they can diagnose the problem, do the job properly, and not leave me with a leak and a four-figure bill. The same principle applies to most vocational professions.

    We should stop treating degrees as a proxy for status and start valuing skills, competence and apprenticeships in their own right.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    edited June 1

    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
    Whether its in-house or sub-contracted is moot, the point either way is its contracted and costed.

    Churning out thousands of pages of documentation is affordable if you are doing so for a development of hundreds or thousands of homes which you will have oligopoly power to drip onto the market at maximum prices.

    It is not affordable if you are a small developer looking to build one home or a handful of homes.

    In countries with zonal automatic permission where planning does not need to be asked for with such documentation small developers build a house or a few houses at a time as demanded. Lower costs, lower overhead and most importantly far more competition.
    This is pedanticbetting.com and I was correcting Sandpit
    It is enjoyable to see senior managers who think that outsourcing something *you do every damn day* actually helps, though.

    EDIT: The Big Housebuilders have outsourced building houses. With multiple levels of outsourcing.
    You can see the appeal from a management perspective. Pay a little more during good times but during leaner times can very easily reduce costs to almost zero.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    If there were 2m houses a year being built, then the demand for electricians would also be higher.

    A gutting of planning law would be bad news only for the lawyers and consultants. No tears shed there…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Yes, I've been regularly backing you up on that, since the start of the invasion.
    We'd better get used to it, though, as Trump doesn't give a monkeys.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    edited June 1
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    What about bringing FEs into the university sector? Break down the last class barrier - "dirty hands" vs "white collar".

    So your plumber get a degree in plumbing. But, in a modular degree, in addition to the maths etc he will need (calculating water flows can get interesting) he will be encourage to do some "white collar" stuff

    Equally, if you want to do Elizabethan Poetry, you'll need to vary it with welding or something.
    And be saddled with degree levels of debt?
    FE colleges and apprenticeships are the answer, not degree courses for vocational jobs.
    Why should it be different than the training now?

    The problem is the idea that at 18 you must spend three years doing nothing but study for a degree, in a residential course, in a fairly randomly selected subject.

    See the silly argument over nurse and degrees - "we can either train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree. Or we train nurses with lots of theoretical work and lots of practical work over several years and give them a degree"
    Not sure we're disagreeing here...

    We don't need degrees for vocational jobs. Simple as that.

    The mistake we’ve made is assuming that every worthwhile profession needs to be turned into a degree profession.

    Plumbing, carpentry, electrical work and many other skilled trades require extensive training, knowledge and practical experience. What they don’t necessarily require is a university degree.

    Nursing is a good example. The training is just as demanding as it ever was. Calling the qualification a degree doesn’t automatically make nurses more skilled, better paid, or more respected.

    When I’m choosing a plumber, I don’t care which university they attended. I care whether they can diagnose the problem, do the job properly, and not leave me with a leak and a four-figure bill. The same principle applies to most vocational professions.

    We should stop treating degrees as a proxy for status and start valuing skills, competence and apprenticeships in their own right.
    Until the end of WW2 only 1% of the UK population went to university, even many solicitors, bankers, accountants, company executives and journalists and politicians and some engineers did not have degrees.

    The only jobs most had degrees were doctors and surgeons, academics, secondary school teachers, barristers, vicars and bishops and senior civil servants
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    Perfectly true; it's what appears to have happened to history graduates opportunities and salaries.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    If there were 2m houses a year being built, then the demand for electricians would also be higher.

    A gutting of planning law would be bad news only for the lawyers and consultants. No tears shed there…
    You say that without any knowledge of the UK. Reform voters do not on the whole want liberalised planning laws. They don’t want loads of building on green fields in their towns. They want the ability to reject development they don’t like.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    Thank God we're in a special relationship with only one of them.
    Zero would be better though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted this from Peter Kellner - a sobering summary of the capacity of party members to elect the dimmest and most off putting candidate available as leader.


    https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-power-to-choose-party-leaders?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=200022234&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    It begs the question of the reason to elect party leaders. Implicitly Peter assumes the point is to pick a winner, but the purpose of parties is inter alia to pick a leader who represents members while being potentially electable. I'd argue that Corbyn fitted that well the first time round, but should have stood down after losing. There is no point in simply electing whoever MPs like, which is influenced by all kinds of personal ambitions and calculations as well as winning. It relegates membership to a supporters' club, and that will result in ever-diminishing numbers.

    What if party members are wildly out of step with the public? Then the party should lose, and perhaps win the next time.
    I sympathise with this but you miss out a significant element. Every major party leader is a potential PM. Being a really good or even great PM, as time proves, involves a very distinct set of qualities. Election winning is one and essential but only one, and while political positioning is necessary, it isn't any use unless you have the qualities of leadership, team building, talent spotting and nurturing, problem solving, prioritising, communication, steel backbone, listening to the best, courage, vision and so on.

    My experience, and this is a bit sobering, is that the techniques that work best in discerning relevant qualities for high level jobs include stuff like psychometric testing, as well of course as their past history and achievements. (The fact that most people instinctively regard all this as fantasy rubbish gives its users an advantage, as it is. counterintuitively, so useful.)

    We are miles away from rigorously testing for relevant qualities in PMs, and it shows.
    To be fair, so is everywhere else. At least we haven't 'elected' a raving, grifting, loon like Trump. Boris was bad enough but at least he recognised that he'd been caught and ran away.
    With Farage in the wings, you should have added "so far".
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    Might have been speaking Welsh. Is that threatening? Anyway the lads were in front of the girls, not following them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    edited June 1

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    If there were 2m houses a year being built, then the demand for electricians would also be higher.

    A gutting of planning law would be bad news only for the lawyers and consultants. No tears shed there…
    You say that without any knowledge of the UK. Reform voters do not on the whole want liberalised planning laws. They don’t want loads of building on green fields in their towns. They want the ability to reject development they don’t like.
    One of the most common comments you see from Reformy types on Facebook is “we don’t need this, we need X” in respect of any new proposed development.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Buttigieg has already win Iowa in 2020 and was runner up in New Hampshire, just 1% behind Sanders, so he already has an advantage in the early states.

    I think Buttigieg v Vance is a strong possibility for 2028
    Only if Vance is already President.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    Too Big To Fail - the problem with that is that failure builds up like water behind a dam. Eventually it overtops. See the Great Financial Crisis.

    The big house builders connect directly into government. We've even had people, here, defending doing deals with the big developers only. because it is easier to manage by government. Which it is - hand a local monopoly to a big company and they do all the rest....
    Because it’s been made impossible to get planning permission for anything, without needing a head office small army of planners and lawyers churning out thousands of pages of documentation for even the smallest project.
    In my experience even large contractors do not have large in-house legal teams, nor large in-house planners. It’s all sub-contracted.
    Whether its in-house or sub-contracted is moot, the point either way is its contracted and costed.

    Churning out thousands of pages of documentation is affordable if you are doing so for a development of hundreds or thousands of homes which you will have oligopoly power to drip onto the market at maximum prices.

    It is not affordable if you are a small developer looking to build one home or a handful of homes.

    In countries with zonal automatic permission where planning does not need to be asked for with such documentation small developers build a house or a few houses at a time as demanded. Lower costs, lower overhead and most importantly far more competition.
    This is pedanticbetting.com and I was correcting Sandpit
    It is enjoyable to see senior managers who think that outsourcing something *you do every damn day* actually helps, though.

    EDIT: The Big Housebuilders have outsourced building houses. With multiple levels of outsourcing.
    You can see the appeal from a management perspective. Pay a little more during good times but during leaner times can very easily reduce costs to almost zero.
    And the outsourcers build in the costs for that. It's about management not wanting to know anything about their business.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    You need to know the context
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted this from Peter Kellner - a sobering summary of the capacity of party members to elect the dimmest and most off putting candidate available as leader.


    https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-power-to-choose-party-leaders?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=200022234&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    It begs the question of the reason to elect party leaders. Implicitly Peter assumes the point is to pick a winner, but the purpose of parties is inter alia to pick a leader who represents members while being potentially electable. I'd argue that Corbyn fitted that well the first time round, but should have stood down after losing. There is no point in simply electing whoever MPs like, which is influenced by all kinds of personal ambitions and calculations as well as winning. It relegates membership to a supporters' club, and that will result in ever-diminishing numbers.

    What if party members are wildly out of step with the public? Then the party should lose, and perhaps win the next time.
    I sympathise with this but you miss out a significant element. Every major party leader is a potential PM. Being a really good or even great PM, as time proves, involves a very distinct set of qualities. Election winning is one and essential but only one, and while political positioning is necessary, it isn't any use unless you have the qualities of leadership, team building, talent spotting and nurturing, problem solving, prioritising, communication, steel backbone, listening to the best, courage, vision and so on.

    My experience, and this is a bit sobering, is that the techniques that work best in discerning relevant qualities for high level jobs include stuff like psychometric testing, as well of course as their past history and achievements. (The fact that most people instinctively regard all this as fantasy rubbish gives its users an advantage, as it is. counterintuitively, so useful.)

    We are miles away from rigorously testing for relevant qualities in PMs, and it shows.
    To be fair, so is everywhere else. At least we haven't 'elected' a raving, grifting, loon like Trump. Boris was bad enough but at least he recognised that he'd been caught and ran away.
    With Farage in the wings, you should have added "so far".
    Fair point. One of the advantages of being in my late 80's is that I might not see it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323
    Stocky said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    Doesn't explain why Barrett Redrow are declining so fast. What is happening to the other house builders? Maybe Barrett Redrow are a bit shit. Surely a successful house building market would involve a load of new entrants and some of the big boys doing badly, even going bust
    An article from the Telegraph in a similar vein

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/housebuilders-have-crumbled-in-value-can-they-ever-rebuild/
    Questor usually gives share tips. I can't read the article (paywall) - is he a buyer at these levels?
    Here is the gift link to read the article:-

    Housebuilders have crumbled in value. Can they ever rebuild?
    Questor: bricks and mortar firms have slumped 56pc over the last five years

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/9df50e42a47cd383
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    edited June 1
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    Not everyone is going to train as an electrician, as there are many other trades in the building industry all of which should be good entry level jobs to skills that will last a lifetime
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    Their Loons are a bit more intelligent and wily though as well as having all those virgins and banquets awaiting them rather than angry people who cannot fill their gas guzzlers
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    Link for that? It can be intimidating to have people talking in a language that you don't understand. They could be, as an extreme example, discussing their plan to abduct and rape you.

    This is not some pathetic attempt to say that everyone must only speak English, but understanding peoples fear of foreigners is useful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    Is this legal ?

    By-election likely as new Reform councillor is a ‘no-show’. A councillor who was championed by and campaigned alongside Jonathan Gullis has failed to sign the paperwork to take office on Kidsgrove Town Council. Councillor Olivia Wonzy, as she appeared on the ballot paper has however taken on the more lucrative role as a Borough Councillor under her new name of Olivia Westcott. Yet another unnecessary cost created by Reform UK!
    https://x.com/MittensOff/status/2061360206257254526

    Also, "Wonzy" ??
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 580

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    You don't understand people!
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,240
    Highway code needs updated?

    Followed one of those electric scooters around town this morning. It was averaging 30 mph and the rider had no protection but a firm grip of the handlebars. Wanting to turn right he sticks out a leg to indicate! Seems reasonable but not what you'd expect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Buttigieg has already win Iowa in 2020 and was runner up in New Hampshire, just 1% behind Sanders, so he already has an advantage in the early states.

    I think Buttigieg v Vance is a strong possibility for 2028
    Only if Vance is already President.
    I think even if he isn't he would still comfortably beat Rubio with a still mainly Maga GOP primary electorate
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,624
    edited June 1
    Battlebus said:

    Highway code needs updated?

    Followed one of those electric scooters around town this morning. It was averaging 30 mph and the rider had no protection but a firm grip of the handlebars. Wanting to turn right he sticks out a leg to indicate! Seems reasonable but not what you'd expect.

    I modded one for an acquaintance and got it up to about 55mph. It probably had a bit more in it but I couldn't push through the death wobble. I reckon you'd need 8-10kW to get to 70mph+. I'll get there...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    If there isn't an agreement this week.

    Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
    https://x.com/JoshYoung/status/2061220589151367447

    I've been flagging for ages that the global economy is fucked with a capital fuck. The inflation spike will be something to behold...
    Iran knows this.

    Trump is going to be battered in the midterms unless gas prices crash. (Spoiler: they won't.).

    Iran knows this

    Trump is desperate for a deal.

    Iran knows this.

    Iran has also read "The Art of the Deal".
    Iran is also run by fucking loons. It's a race to see who can be more loony. At the moment, both sides are declaring victory on a weekly basis. Complete with "The Enemy is about to agree to everything we want".
    Their Loons are a bit more intelligent and wily though as well as having all those virgins and banquets awaiting them rather than angry people who cannot fill their gas guzzlers
    Until they discover the virgins are really angry about no fuel for *their* gas guzzlers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    Perfectly true; it's what appears to have happened to history graduates opportunities and salaries.
    Most people don't study history, it is not even in the top 10 most studied UK degrees now (the top 3 Business and Management, Subjects allied to Medicine and Social Sciences with Computer Sciences and AI 4th).

    https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/08-08-2024/sb269-higher-education-student-statistics/subjects

    Though yes unless you want to be a history professor or teacher or work in a museum or archive there aren't many jobs that use it so you have to get a job elsewhere or retrain in something else after
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789


    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    Not everyone is going to train as an electrician, as there are many other trades in the building industry all of which should be good entry level jobs to skills that will last a lifetime
    I want to have my bathroom redone. I have someone coming around today from a major UK firm to do a spec. I've been advised that they probably wouldn't be able to do the actual job until September........
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Buttigieg has already win Iowa in 2020 and was runner up in New Hampshire, just 1% behind Sanders, so he already has an advantage in the early states.

    I think Buttigieg v Vance is a strong possibility for 2028
    It is widely reported that Trump now hates Vance. Hates him even more because he can't fire him. And has to keep going two and a half more years to keep him out the Oval Office.

    If Trump has any say on the MAGA candidate going into 2028, it won't be Vance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    If there were 2m houses a year being built, then the demand for electricians would also be higher.

    A gutting of planning law would be bad news only for the lawyers and consultants. No tears shed there…
    You say that without any knowledge of the UK. Reform voters do not on the whole want liberalised planning laws. They don’t want loads of building on green fields in their towns. They want the ability to reject development they don’t like.
    One of the most common comments you see from Reformy types on Facebook is “we don’t need this, we need X” in respect of any new proposed development.
    Hopefully X is "rewilding to create species-rich habitat". Which is my answer to any proposed development, funnily enough.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452
    scampi25 said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    You don't understand people!
    I'm not saying this doesn't happen, simply that it's not a valid reason in and of itself. Of course, people freak out about all sorts of things all the time. I am not unaware of how people behave.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    Build some houses!
    This is a sobering article on housebulding

    https://kalkine.co.uk/news/general-news/why-are-uk-housebuilder-stocks-falling-today-and-is-btrw-the-biggest-risk
    The country absolutely needs a load more houses.
    We have 1m Neets needing training and work.
    We have 30,000 vacancies in construction.

    Replace council housing by building housing whilst training up tens of thousands of construction workers including much needed plumbers, electricians which are probably better careers than most graduate jobs already, and will become relatively even more desirable as Ai develops.
    I absolutely support moving young people into all aspects of construction jobs providing FE colleges in every town

    This is where success lies for many who will graduate into a never ending demand market and no doubt progress to starting their own business and not least of all with no student debt

    Blair 50% to go to university was a disaster

    I joined the police in 1964 without a degree, and most of our circle who were in nursing didn't either


    Heard on the radio that we have 600 sports journalist graduates every year. The total number of sports journalists in the UK is around 600.
    One of my grandsons graduated, from a British Uni, two years ago with a 2:1 in History. At time of writing he's managing a bar in Australia and thinking of retraining as an electrician.
    Problem is if everyone retrained as an electrician the law of supply and demand means that would soon collapse electricians wages and demand for them too
    If there were 2m houses a year being built, then the demand for electricians would also be higher.

    A gutting of planning law would be bad news only for the lawyers and consultants. No tears shed there…
    You say that without any knowledge of the UK. Reform voters do not on the whole want liberalised planning laws. They don’t want loads of building on green fields in their towns. They want the ability to reject development they don’t like.
    One of the most common comments you see from Reformy types on Facebook is “we don’t need this, we need X” in respect of any new proposed development.
    Hopefully X is "rewilding to create species-rich habitat". Which is my answer to any proposed development, funnily enough.
    :D:D Not usually
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Buttigieg has already win Iowa in 2020 and was runner up in New Hampshire, just 1% behind Sanders, so he already has an advantage in the early states.

    I think Buttigieg v Vance is a strong possibility for 2028
    It is widely reported that Trump now hates Vance. Hates him even more because he can't fire him. And has to keep going two and a half more years to keep him out the Oval Office.

    If Trump has any say on the MAGA candidate going into 2028, it won't be Vance.
    If I were certain Trump will survive the next two and a half years, I would be laying Vance.
    I am not laying Vance.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    Battlebus said:

    Highway code needs updated?

    Followed one of those electric scooters around town this morning. It was averaging 30 mph and the rider had no protection but a firm grip of the handlebars. Wanting to turn right he sticks out a leg to indicate! Seems reasonable but not what you'd expect.

    I have trouble on my mobility scooter; speed is controlled by levers on the handlebars, and if one lets go of the lever the machine stops. Forward speed is controlled by the one on the right, reverse by the left, so turning left is no problem, but indicating intention to turn right means crossing hands to maintain speed while sticking out one's right hand.
    Never thought of sticking my leg out!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    dixiedean said:

    It would be spectacularly rare to hear anyone at all speaking a foreign language in any of the tiny towns that make up Makerfield.
    It really is one of the last bastions of almost 0 immigration.
    In fact. Until this circus kicked off almost nobody without connections to the area ever went there for any reason whatsoever.
    Strangers, of any kind, are noticed and worthy of comment.

    "This is a local by-election for local politicians..."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

    The plates are shifting.

    That isn't really true, 51% of Reform voters think the government taxes too much and spends too much on public services and 60% think welfare benefits are too generous.

    Even if not as high as the 89% who think migrants coming to the United Kingdom across the English Channel should all be immediately removed from the United Kingdom and prevented from ever returning. The 77% who back restoration of the death penalty for some crimes, the 78% who think multiculturalism has made Britain worse and the 69% who think people in Britain should not be legally able to change their gender

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
    There is a certain belief that it is welfare for others that is the problem, which doesn't match very well with the major grievance in the header being the means testing of WFA.

    Union members may also not be very keen on Reform's "Great Repeal Bill" which promises to gut rights of workers, and repeal of the Equalities Act. Mind you when even Reform candidates don't know this, why should we expect the voters to know?

    https://bsky.app/profile/bestforbritain.org/post/3mn3cxog2rg2q
    Dead easy to repeal the Equalities Act since it doesn't exist.

    It's the Equality Act.

    Quite a high crossover in my experience between those who do not accurately call it and those who do not understand what it says.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    OllyT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Labour lost touch with working people long ago. Took them for granted.

    It is as much that the WWC have moved away from Labour rather than the other way around.

    How on earth can a left of centre party appeal to people who want Farage as PM without shredding most of what it believes in?
    There are still 16-18% who support the Greens and a similar number who are standard Labour. It's just about 25% who make you want to leave the country and have nothing more to do with it. Listening to the vox-pops in Makerfield is as about as depressing as it gets.
    Frankly I'm more far more depressed by those who think the boob whisperer is the solution to any problem....

    They seem to think more of exactly what has caused the economic (entitlements and state spending) and societal problems (immigration) is just the ticket. My drinking pals are mostly relatively left wing; when we have a bit of back and forth at the pub, the thing that always unites us is how the Greens are just on another planet....
    On one of the vox-pops a girl said . '....there were these lads walking in front of us and they were speaking a foreign language....it was very scary'. I think Andy Burnham might be taking on more than he bargained for.
    You just do not understand the intimidation young women feel these days do you ?
    There are many reasons for women to feel intimidated by men but the men speaking a language other than English isn't one of them.
    Link for that? It can be intimidating to have people talking in a language that you don't understand. They could be, as an extreme example, discussing their plan to abduct and rape you.

    This is not some pathetic attempt to say that everyone must only speak English, but understanding peoples fear of foreigners is useful.
    Why would you assume that every person speaking a foreign language is planning to abduct and rape you? That is just a very weird assumption to make, not least as it probably makes you less safe as it might distract you from other more accurate signals of malign intent. It's not like people who speak English are not also rapists.
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