Rupert Lowe isn’t very good at expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Rupert Lowe isn’t very good at expectations management – politicalbetting.com
I have always been told to underpromise and overdeliver because success equals performance minus anticipation, these are lessons Rupert Lowe appears to not fo follow.
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Oh, and first...
Sad.
I'm struggling to know what to make of Mr Lowe and his party, period.
But this fight will be between the Randy Scouse Git (Monkees reference there) and the plumber. My guess is the plumber will win because I don't think the people of Makerfield will be so easily bought. Nor does Burnham if he is hyping Restore as much as it appears.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
"Established Liberals" seems a slightly misleading name for a group only one in five of whom vote LibDem.
But it clearly captures something:
This doesn't surprise me, while Labour's vote is down across 6 of our 7 segments, Established Liberals - the most comfortable, optimistic, internationalist group - are an exception. Among ELs Labour's vote hasn't dropped at all and they likely dominate audiences places like Hay
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116
Has Burnham even commented on Restore ?
My top search result to that question was "Burnham hits out at Reform".
https://x.com/i/status/2060632390758744356
If you're a Macmillan/Major one nation type who doesn't live in the Waitrose belt, Starmer's Labour is the least bad realistic fit. Not a good fit, but... (dragged off stage for repetition over many years)
My hunch is Restore lost deposit, and that is where my money is. Also on the Lab over 43.5% band at Ladbrokes.
Anyway, your nomenclature makes more sense than "Liberal"
The by election may therefore single the start of a split on the nationalist right more than a thumping win for Burnham as Labour's new Messiah. The biggest winners from such a result may ironically be Kemi if Reform's vote starts splitting and even Sir Keir if Labour win but Burnham only scrapes over the line
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZNRWGV52M/
Imagine 300 Kenyon's as MPs in 2029. It will be the British Idiocracy*.
*Idiocracy (2006 film) now seems extraordinarily prescient of Trumps Presidency: https://www.adamkinzinger.com/p/were-living-in-idiocracy-and-the?r=kjv0f&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116?s=20
Indeed it is not beyond possibility Starmer could survive as PM
Labour are in a mess
Indeed it is not beyond possibility Starmer could survive as PM
Labour are in a mess
I think the clue here is 'Established'. It refers to a group who are mostly older and therefore have an interesting past to remember, have a stake in civil society because they are fairly comfortably off, believe in liberalism not a political label but as a procedure for how society recognises and legislates for rights, duties, freedoms and obligations. They are probably Burkeans in believing that society is organic, not an artifice, and that the present has debts and obligations to the future especially, and also the past. They will mostly vote LD in LD strongholds but not mostly otherwise.
I should think they make up the entire audience of most literary festivals and Radio 4.
Not comfortable with some of the social outpourings of the youth, though their niece (can I still call them that?) with a nosering seems pleasant enough. But probably more uncomfortable with enforcement of traditional norms.
Just don't ram it down my throat.
The exit poll at 10pm on the day of the next general election is going to do most people's heads in, one way or another.
By far its biggest asset is Facebook, where Lowe broadcasts messages to more than 1.2 million followers, the majority of whom are based in Britain. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer has 651,000 Facebook followers and Kemi Badenoch has 503,000. Farage, benefiting from a sustained public profile since becoming an MEP in 1999, has 2.1 million followers on Facebook.
On X, Lowe has almost 775,000 followers compared with Farage’s 2.2 million, but an analysis this week showed that the Restore leader appeared to be reaching more people with his posts. Since February, 10 of Lowe’s posts have reached at least 10 million views – a feat not achieved by any of Farage’s posts in that time. Content uploaded to Restore’s YouTube account, which has more than 120,000 subscribers, is also raised by voters in Makerfield.
“There’s a reluctance in the media to talk about how many people we’ve been reaching,” claims the Restore spokesman. “Everyone says ‘it’s just Musk on Twitter’. It’s not.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/dbf5cf2c9d033b0a
Gift link (so no paywall) as there are betting implications.
IMHO UK and European political culture generally is more social democrat than liberal, that mainstream parties in the UK are in internal fights between philosophical liberals and authoritarians, and both liberals and social democrats (ie most normal people) are troubled that the day of our sort of centrism may be past the best times.
Full disclosure: I am a political social democrat, my natural home is One Nation Tory, and a philosophical and religious liberal.
I raise an uncomfortable question and in typical fashion of the left you go off on one
Read Bloomberg I posted earlier, look at the polls, and expect the unexpected
@DavidGauke
I didn’t vote for either of the winners of the last two General Elections but “traitors” for whom a “reckoning is coming”? Really? This very excitable, angry & hyperbolic man should be nowhere near a position of responsibility in a political party that aspires to power.
Quote
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
Recent events demonstrate why I view the Tory and Labour politicians who created the burning injustice of modern Britain as traitors to their country.
A reckoning is coming.
https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/2060479604481986575
@DavidGauke
I didn’t vote for either of the winners of the last two General Elections but “traitors” for whom a “reckoning is coming”? Really? This very excitable, angry & hyperbolic man should be nowhere near a position of responsibility in a political party that aspires to power.
Quote
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
Recent events demonstrate why I view the Tory and Labour politicians who created the burning injustice of modern Britain as traitors to their country.
A reckoning is coming.
https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/2060479604481986575
The idiots in Idiocracy were well meaning and quite kind. Their big fuckup was trying to help and getting it wrong.
The malevolence of MAGA was entirely absent.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XkvsrQXx6x0
One at 11-1 the other 4-1.
As Labour are so clearly out of it which of 'Restore' or 'Reform' are you recommending we go for?
Or are you thinking Kemi could still pull it off?
“Some men just want to watch the world burn” sounds edgy. But, generally, what you get is the Sycamore Gap tree being chopped down. Or people driving at 136 in a 30 while high on drugs.
Would second place for the Official Opposition be a triumph for Badenoch? Or will SLab hold on to the Unionist vote?
(That's not my family in shot, btw - just random bystanders)
The Go-go's are a seriously under-rated band.
What happens now to all the noomless tat Murrell bought. Does it belong to the SNP or do the police keep it then auction it off after the trial? There must be a few rich Nats who'd pay for Nicola's second-hand pens and pepper pots.
I have no idea about the result but the conservatives, lib dems, and greens are unlikely to gain 10% between them
There is some reason to doubt Burnham will win but I hope he does as he has to beat Farage
It is undeniable labour are in a mess
I have no particular preference. As I see it Burnham will probably win and I have no idea what happens next. That's why I come on here. A greater array of election and betting specialists will be hard to find so your synchronised cheering for Kemi under all circumstances is unhelpful.
(Though it's Saturday and I have Arsenal losing to look forward to so don't take it personally)
This is confirmed after he called the authorities after he believed he saw Asylum Seekers from Calais rowing past Great Yarmouth Pier.
There was some fairly upbeat UK Post-Punk too, such as Altered Images, Bananarama, Dolly Mixture, Shop Assistants etc.
Maybe it was just a girl thing to be a bit more upbeat.
This week alone:
DOJ opens an investigation into the woman Trump raped.
The White House is caught steering a $620 million contract to Don Jr.’s firm.
The Pentagon hands out a $10 billion contract after Trump buys stock in the company.
Foreign governments are caught funneling hundreds of millions into a random JPMorgan account tied to Trump’s “Board of Peace” with no oversight.
It’s just Thursday.
The corruption isn’t hidden anymore. It’s happening out in the open.
Being in possession of the ball can be a great advantage if it is played reasonably well even under sub optimal Trump-World circumstances.
But I have not followed the egg cups and overh-yped brand pens.
I once did a rail from Kings Cross to Inverness, which was ... lengthy.
There are a growing number of voters warming to Kemi as you can see in the polling and even on here
The nightmare for the UK is either Farage or Polanski having any influence on the next government
They are both extreme and dangerous
Boris won Dissenting Disruptors in 2019 but that group narrowly went Labour in 2024 and is now majority Reform. Sceptical Scrollers also went for Boris in 2019, strongly for Labour in 2024 and now Reform has a clear lead with that group as well.
Of the 2 traditionally left leaning groups Corbyn won in 2019 and Starmer in 2024, Labour still lead clearly with the Incrementalist Left but Labour only narrowly lead the Greens with Progressive Activists
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
SNP strong favourites in the betting for each, I see.
Any feeling how the Unionist vote will split? I would anticipate SLab falling back a bit, but they seemed to hold on better against the Reform surge than the SCon in the Holyrood elections.
If SCon only manage 3rd or 4th place it does look pretty dismal for them.
Sturgeon just admitted it has been the worse week in her life and made out she didn't know who her husband really was
She is followed by the media and looks broken
You really are out of touch at times
That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....
But seriously, if Badenoch cannot make progress in current circumstances then surely she is toast?
If Burnham wins in Makerfield as I said it will be helped by Restore splitting the Reform vote
A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.
Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.
https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a
The latest bit of hilarity is the Sun running a story about a wee nitwit seeing Sturgeon buying frozen pizza and garlic bread in Asda in the vicinity of Murrell's mother's home. Adding to the idiocy is that said nitwit is a SLab activist.
https://x.com/ScottishSun/status/2060109402510680157?s=20
The FBT and Gogos versions might as well be different songs. Both are great by the way. But the girls singing whilst driving around LA in a drop top Buick and splashing around in a municipal fountain is a lot more cheerful than a dour looking Terry Hall.
The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.
The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'
https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
Kemi will flee Essex, become an MP in Aberdeen, become the Tories most southerly MP but it will be utterly fantastic because Kemi says so.
She might even go full on Stone Cold Steve Austin and open tins of Irn Bru between her butt cheeks
https://thewalrus.ca/the-internet-has-become-too-american-to-trust/
… is worth a read.
An odious little shit never elected by anyone to anything
I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.
Cross party cooperation then becomes inevitable if you want to win. So you need to do it before the other side does.
Party x or y sticking their fingers in their ears and saying they are aiming for a majority government is a sure fire way to lose.
Might as well invite the SWP.
The group of people who can feel something of the sentiments, and share elements of all or nearly all the seven identities is missing.
And the group of people who don't really think about the civil or political order at all, who don't vote, participate in what is around them, only pick up news in tiny bites, couldn't locate France or Edinburgh on a map and never read a book. Their representatives are a large chunk of the the 13 million registered voters who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum, the 19 million who didn't vote in 2024, and the 8 million or so who are not registered to vote in the first place.
In small town WWC communities there are loads of these, I know lots and I am very fond of them.
Restore have an established local Party, therefore a ground game.
And pollsters and canvassers are picking up a level of support. The size of it is in question, but it isn't negligible.