Restoring my faith in the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Restoring my faith in the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
I’ve been betting on politics for over a quarter of a century and in recent months and the most astonishing odds and volumes I have ever seen is the Restore odds on the most seats at the next general election.
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Or they have roped in somebody from another political party to help out. "Now when I count you back from 5 to 1, you will wake from this sleep - and I want you to remember that when you see the word Reform, you only think Restore..."
"And your tits are bigger too."
In the warm, still conditions, large numbers of migrants came over last night.
To the moth trap.
Normally lucky if I get 3 or 4 Small Mottled Willow all year. Last night - 21!
Its an invasion, I tell yer...
Cost of gaining similar publicity through advertising elsewhere = Maybe £100k
Do the maths and its articles like this one, talking about a non entity party, which are precisely why they are low odds.
If Burnham gets in, that just warns people not to vote Restore in future, and encourages them to vote Reform to get him out. If Reform get in, and the plumber turns out to be an awful MP (there is precendent), that favours Restore. I think Reform winning with a small minority for Restore is the best possible result for them.
Secondly, politicians got too interested and began to try to rig and ramp the markets- as politicians will. The stuff the Tories tried to pull around the last general election is, I think, still under investigation by Plod. This latest naked ramping from Low deserves to be thumped in like manner and should be treated as what it is: a money making opportunity.for political bettors.
So if the site needs to get it's mojo back, it is not going to happen by allowing Leon to post racist stuff about matters that are sub judice, it is to suggest politely that he backs his Reform ramping with some reasonable amount of dosh. If you can afford £20 for some slightly naff Crown Derby mug, you can certainly afford to take a few quid and back your mostly drunken and/or demented waffle supporting the treacherous Mr Farage as the likely next Prime Minister.
So, what odds are you giving us?
It's probably always been the case that personal ambition drives policy choices more than we like to admit- see Andy's antics over the past week or so. I'm sure someone like Matt Ridley can explain it in evolutionary terms.
Given the number of people enthusiastic about this new party, it seems to me much more likely that lots of people who never bet on politics before have placed bets with their feelings, rather than deliberately attempting to influence anything.
Good morning, everybody.
Unusually they found someone who did make a useful comment !
The woman said she was worried about Reform Restore splitting the vote and allowing Labour to win the seat .
I’ll be down the vineyard dealing with the aftermath of the opposite problem, late frosts that killed off probably well over 50% of the year’s potential yield in 3 nights earlier this month. It takes a whole winter season of mildness to bring the buds out too early, and one night of frost to wipe them out. Nature is a cruel mistress. My job this weekend is bud rubbing: taking off all the rogue shoots on the lower trunks of the vines with some rough gloves.
In El Niño land the ocean surface continues to shift into the Nino pattern and the forecast models continue to show an extreme peak in November-December, but wind patterns aren’t joining the party at the moment so I suspect the froth will come off the outlook a bit in due course. Still, enough to guarantee 2027 is by far the world’s warmest year on record, and possibly 2026 too.
Outlook and current Pacific wind fields here:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2026/05/27/2000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-202.36,-0.27,346/loc=132.736,24.625
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif
Even here on politicalbetting.com it seems like actually betting on politics is still a bit niche.
The king across the water holed below the waterline.
It is a well established process though, Brian Rose was second fav for London Mayor and finished 13th dead last well behind Count Binface and two independents. He did however raise £800,000 as a result of his campaign. It is an economic money making thing, not simply people betting.
https://x.com/actfast/status/2058025526993080571
Last night we had barely a few comments over hours. At a time of huge political interest. Similarly, we get no new posters, ever. Except the execrable @Brixian59 who is surely a previous commenter reincarnating anyway. I’ve heard of this happening
Why? One big reason is the Blueskying of the site. It is now completely dominated by Dickless Centrist Dads like you. As relentlessly pompous as you are humourless, devoid of insight, caprice or wit. And fucking dull. And you have managed to push out anyone with a spark of wildness, plus that third of the country susceptible to Reform
If I was a newbie passing by, looking at this parade of sad old middlebrow “opinions”, I’d keep passing by
No companies are passing on this VAT cut in full, they’re all facing massive extra costs because of NI and min wage increases passed last year.
Saw a mayfly Ephemera danica inside the train window where we were sitting on the way back from Bath last night. Fluttered about too much to take a clear photo though!
https://x.com/kshevchenkoreal/status/2057875890068127809
In Russia, a massive black market for expired food is booming despite laws banning its sale. Wholesalers openly advertise tons of spoiled chicken, meat, cheese, sausages, canned goods, and even 68,000 cans of expired Coca-Cola from Jordan at rock-bottom prices — frozen chickens for just 75 rubles/kg. Instead of disposal, products are resold to small producers who mask the rot with spices and additives, then feed them into shops, shawarma stands, and bakeries.
And my first trip abroad was quite memorable. I was 7 or 8. My mum and her lover, Vic Ellis, a Mercedes car salesman, took us down to the south of France. In his big car. My sister got car sick and Vic’s cigars made me nauseous
We stayed in Collioure which was beautiful. Apparently I met Picasso but this memory is very hazy and might well be nonsense. I befriended a sea urchin, brought it back to the hotel and put it in the sink, hoping to make a friend. It died
I got over the grief when Mum bought me a coffee cream eclair in the sun and when I ate it on the way down to the beach, that eclair was the nicest thing I’d ever eaten up to that moment
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/2058084631140774347
As is the road to Crimea through Ukraine, Russia is totally out of air defences and every military vehicle is being taken out by the Ukranian drones.
https://x.com/jimmysecuk/status/2057746382052597792
https://x.com/LePapillonBlu2/status/2058051138721636715
The man has completely lost it, and no one dares invoke the 25th.
https://x.com/jimmysecuk/status/2057853755400355856
Ukraine thanks them very much for this decision, as they now know that every truck on the road is a legitimate military target.
Some of the more interesting _far_ left posters like 148grss - a literal Marxist if I recall - I disagreed with on almost everything, but found to be incredibly engaging and their arguments very well considered. To the point where they actually changed my mind about some things. That is rare. As for Reform voters, I'm a self confessed liberal metropolitan elite type who sees their voter base as utterly infra dig. But I wouldn't heap scorn on them either, because I've been out to the red wall many times to do focus groups, and absolutely get where the inchoate rage at the system is coming from. We would do well to listen to Reform voters and understand where they are coming from even if we disagree with them. But they are completely under-represented on this site - and dismissed and scorned when they do pop up.
However I don't think the problem is "middlebrow opinions" as much as it is piling on anyone who doesn't conform to the orthodoxy here. The tribalism is tiresome.
You also have to wonder who exactly is ramping Restore? Lowe and his minions? Or what about centrist dads keen to stop Farage and split the right?
If Putin had any sense, he'd trade Crimea for the Donbas. Not expecting it however...
That said, the betting markets seem to often have quite odd sentiments even when there isn't a transparently obvious stream of cash trying to bring the odds in on an obvious outsider.
For example: the fairly number of people who have been backing Farage for next PM over the last couple of years, when it's massively more likely that if Farage gets into No10 the sequence would be SKS -> A. N. other Labour non-entity -> Farage.
I don't think that's market manipulation, it's just been people who think (correctly) Farage is likely to win the next election, but without realising that unlike the Gadarene Swine, the Labour Party would pause in its headlong rush to drown to elecGadarene SwineSlide clipboard items to elect a new leader for rest of the way down.
It is also the utter tedium
There’s a famous, historic and reliable metric for measuring this which I’ve just invented. The LEONDAMUS Index of Commenter Identifiability. LICI
When PB is good and diverse, you can identify a load of commenters from the first couple of sentences they write. Their views are spiky, different, quirky, challenging or notably individual - exactly what you want. A good LICI reading is about 60%
These days the PB LICI reading is down to about 10%. Thr commenters are so dull and witless yet predictably identical in their views - Trump is terrible, Reform are ghastly, etc - you don’t realise who is speaking even after they’ve spoken. I can read whole pages of the same stodgy wearying centrist opinions by @bondegezou, @kinabalu, @Cicero, @thatotherone, @whofuckingcares - that I barely register who in particular has said what and why
They should save time and post their one single generic boring opinion under one name, once a day
Being told I was a "leftist" poster the other day when I've spent years banging on about lower taxes and less regulation just because I'm socially liberal was quite an eye opener.
Foxy is in the first category - Art of betting - The gambling commission has no concerns about this type of information.
The number 10 staffer depending on their precise role is in the third category - By chance informed - or fourth - Restricted Information. Typically I think either, as a one off scenario, would lead to voiding of bets and referrals to employer rather than criminal prosecution based on the framework.
If no one is prepared to help TSE, Peter the Punter or OGH to become richer through backing their always wrong opinions with cash, its just another chat site.
Doesn't matter what your opinions are, just have the courage of your demented far-right blow hard bullshit opinions and put some bawbees down.
Lets start easy: £20 that Fartage faces censure from the House of Commons and/or criminal charges within one year from today.
What odds will you give me he wont?
https://www.ms.now/news/whos-applying-for-the-1-8-billion-slush-fund
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vietnam-trump-trade-tariffs-golf-course-b2757581.html
I find it entirely possible that Burnsiah wins his by-election. And then the contest never happens. It kind of fades away, into the next Starmer leadership crisis.
If he loses , the chances that everyone starts looking at their shoes and mumbling is much higher, of course.
I think there’s at least a 25% probability that Starmer leads Labour into the next election.
And pizza sales. Lots of pizza sales in the Washington DC area.
Oh, and thousands of Cubans will be blown to smitherines, but as MarqueMark correctly said on the last thread, they're losers aren't they so who cares about them.
/s in case anyone thought otherwise!
“Eli Lilly released retatrutide Phase 3 data yesterday. 28% weight loss in 80 weeks. The most powerful obesity drug that’s ever been tested.
And today the cancer signal drops.
12,112 patients. Seven tumor types. GLP-1 users had half the lung cancer metastasis rate (10% vs 22%). Breast cancer: 43% cut. Colon cancer five-year mortality in a separate study: 15.5% vs 37.1%.
Cancer joins a list that already includes heart disease (SELECT, 20% MACE reduction), kidney failure (FLOW, 24% slower decline), sleep apnea (SURMOUNT-OSA, FDA-approved), addiction (BMJ, 600K veterans, 18-25% reduction across substances), and liver disease (86% fat clearance).
Tumors express GLP-1 receptors. Activate them and NF-kB drops, apoptosis rises. The drug isn’t just shrinking fat. It’s talking directly to the cancer.
One drug class. Designed for blood sugar. The biology keeps finding uses the designers didn’t predict.”
It’s beginning to look like these drugs are up there with the first anti-biotics. Or way beyond. Maybe everyone should be on them
https://x.com/agingroy/status/2057717218608099484?s=46
TRANSPARENCY: I’m on one of them. I’m on Mounjaro. It was originally to lose weight but that’s happened. Now it’s to heal my liver and reduce the booze intake (which had to happen). It works. My drinking has probably halved
The only people who get piled on, and they do exist on both left and right, are deliberately provocative themselves imo.
Anyway, those immigration numbers. Sure they're down a bit but whoppee doo. Fact is, there are millions already here with their fingers in. That's why we can't afford to fix any potholes or see a doctor. Course if you point this out you're a racist. Wtf has happened to this country. We must be soft in the head. Bunch of mugs.
Nigel gets it. That's why Reform are leading the polls.
The wider point about tribalism on this site stands though, I think people tend to consistently post "goodthink" for either the centrist dad tribe or the socially conservative tribe to gain likes, rather than say interesting stuff like "Well, I'm a low tax libertarian but actually the Greens are the only party seriously standing up for civil liberties in the UK - repeal of the online safety act, right to protest, legalisation of drugs etc so maybe I'll vote for them*"
*I won't actually vote for a party that plans to tax the economy into the ground.