We could soon see crossover on the most seats markets – politicalbetting.com
We could soon see crossover on the most seats markets – politicalbetting.com
Last week I advised betting on Labour winning the most sats when they were just a 26% implied chance, my reasoning was an expected Burnham bounce which depending on the Makerfield by-election result might see Labour soar even more.
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If companies and the government want 16 year olds to do work experience, then they have to offer it.
The ONS’ chief economist said this was down partly to spending on benefits: “Borrowing this month was substantially higher than in April last year and although receipts increased compared to with April 2025, this was more than offset by higher spending on benefits and other costs
Burnham needs to win the by election first though which is not a given
If he loses? Well then it gets very funny very quickly. If Labour can't win in the red wall with Burnham then they can't win there at all. It would take endless Kirklees council shenanigans to get the voters up to speed with why vote for these useless wankers to stop Reform winning the election.
College is now the place where industrial relationships are kept
The judge's comments were plain embarrassing and insulting.
So on compost prizes, I only came second last year hence getting a guide to better composting. If I come top this year I will let you know what the prize is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgze8n5dxko
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/22/green-party-candidate-makerfield-byelection-chris-kennedy-quits
Someone should work out how many Labour MPs had Reform candidate second in their constituency and how big their majority was and then see what happens to those seats at a GE if the Makerfield outcome is repeated.
It will be interesting to see how many people want a referendum but do not want separation.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/may/22/taliban-legitimising-child-forced-early-marriage-law-women-rights
Child marriage appears to have been legally recognised for the first time by the Taliban in Afghanistan, as activists say “shameful” new laws make it almost impossible for girls and young women to seek divorce against their husbands’ will.
There are no official statistics on forced and underage marriages in Afghanistan, but activists say it has risen at an alarming rate in recent years, driven by the ban on girls being in education after the age of 11.
One informal estimate suggested that since the Taliban had barred them from education about 70% had been pushed into early or forced marriage and that 66% of these marriages involved girls under the age of 18.
There is no ban on child marriage in Afghanistan under the Taliban, but a new law on divorce approved last week appears to suggest that a girl who later says she was married against her will would not be permitted a divorce if her husband disagrees.
The new law also appears to suggest that a woman cannot divorce her husband solely on the grounds of his absence or failure to provide financial support.
There have been reported demonstrations against the new law in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, this week, with several women’s rights movements condemning the law as a form of systemic violence against women and children.
One activist, Fatima, said: “After issuing hundreds of anti-women decrees, the Taliban are now attempting to institutionalise child marriage within the formal legal structure...
Though the premier of Alberta says she will vote to keep Alberta in Canada, as will the Liberal and Conservative parties
My old employer does "work experience" for 16 year olds (or 18? IDK) but honestly it's not actually work, it's more like a week of some kind of group project in a meeting room in the office doing some programming or hardware related task under somebody's supervision, AIUI. It's not til you get to university student age and a whole summer placement that it even starts to get to "students do something approximately work shaped and a good student might even produce something useful" and even that is more "we offer paid internships so we have an opportunity to find and offer jobs to the good ones".
Back thirty years ago my "work experience" week at 16 was clearly nothing like actually working, and it's kind of hard to see how it could be unless it's on a job you could reasonably start doing immediately out of high school, which then isn't very representative of what most people will end up doing.
Speaks exactly to that.
"However, new Ipsos research which "stress-tested" these sentiments by introducing real-world consequences reveals that actual committed support for separation is roughly half these levels in both provinces, with only 15 to 16% of Albertans and Quebecers maintaining their support after considering possible costs. This means that for roughly half of separatist supporters in both provinces, independence is more a political message than a plan they are prepared to endure costs to achieve."
Wise of Canada to have a national formula on how seccession would work. Other countries might want to do the same.
Ahem.
He would have three years, if he so chose, to turn things around. That timescale is a constraint on which unpopular, but potentially successful policies might find backing, but it doesn't rule them all out.
There's also the point that if there's a settlement in the Gulf, and if Russia finally gives up its abortive invasion of Ukraine, then there's a likelihood of a strong global economic recovery.
You can't just read across a by election result to a GE three years hence. Even some of the dimmer Labour backbenchers can be persuaded of that, I think ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c232z4yk437o
Not exactly that, but helpful.
The whole thing has looked like amateur hour, and with Reform selecting local lad with some iffy X posts which the voter will agree with, Rob the Plumber and the spectre of Leyton 1965 looming large, Team Nigel could take this, and as Rochdale suggests we can contentedly celebrate the death of the Labour Party.
One hundred years was a decent run, even if most of it was in opposition. Over to you Zack for the next hundred years of mainly opposition.
.."Right now we're doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury - which we have plenty," Cao said at the hearing on Thursday, using the code name for the US-Israel joint military operation in Iran.
"We're just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary."
When asked what he had heard from the Taiwanese about a pause in the weapons sale, Cao said he had "not spoken to the Taiwanese"..
It told me to go into tax if I was going to became an accountant and then the internet appeared so I went into IT.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93xv27kpwxo
Again, the question: Does all this stop with the end of Trump or is it the new USA for the foreseeable.
Trump will shaft Taiwan simply because he can. He has no ideology of morality.
Mostly about the oil wealth - the classic “If we were a small country with all this oil, income tax would be negative” stuff.
Alberta would be the largest amount of oil that a government is proposing to leave in the ground, that I know of. Makes the North Sea look small.
That support for independence is so low says something about Albertans, and their view/relationship with the oil industry.
Note that this is about getting enough signature on a petition to start the process for the first referendum.
After the Quebec referendum, Canada wrote law carefully defining the process* for such referenda
*the Canadian independence referendum process is actually quite clear and to the point.
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford (Everton), Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), James Trafford (Manchester City)
Defenders: Reece James (Chelsea), Tino Livramento (Newcastle), Marc Guehi (Manchester City), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), John Stones (Manchester City), Jarell Quansah (Bayer Leverkusen), Nico O'Reilly (Manchester City), Dan Burn (Newcastle), Djed Spence (Tottenham Hotspur)
Midfielders: Declan Rice (Arsenal), Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jordan Henderson (Brentford), Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United)
Forwards: Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Ivan Toney (Al-Ahli), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Noni Madueke (Arsenal), Marcus Rashford (Barcelona), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle), Eberechi Eze (Arsenal)
Unless there's a parent with a willing employer it is very difficult if the school hasn't cultivated links with employers.
Burnham winning will change the narrative especially if Starmer is gone soon after and the country needs something dramatic to wake it up from the slide to the far right [reform] and far left [greens]
I would expect Burnham to get a honeymoon and crossover with reform quite quickly, possibly even before the 18th June if the polls indicate a Burnham win
It's not like his Persian misadventure where he has to do what the Zionist Entity tells him to great detriment of just about everything.
Peter.
Imo Labour win the next election by making it Farage vs Labour leader - who do you want leading the country. Similar to how Macron has kept power in France.
https://x.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/2057751999429361863
Mr @christiancalgie has been busy putting out a partial version of events these last few days, amplified by yourselves.
I think it’s time all your readers had the whole story. They were all out of order and, if they had any decency, would now hold their hands up and apologise.
[I was lucky.]
Labour, starting from over 400, should always have been favourite for most seats and it says a lot about the incumbent PM that they ever weren't. A Burnham win in Makerfield probably flips the favourite instantly on declaration (if it doesn't happen during the campaign if he looks certain to win) - if he loses it might take a little while and would depend on who actually challenges Starmer.
#labourcorruption-reformpropriety*
* That £5m was merely resting in my account.
The UK-EU summit pencilled in for next month may be postponed until July because of the UK leadership crisis
Starmer had held high hopes for the summit, framing it as a big moment to push for closer ties
But the Burnham/Streeting move to defenestrate him has hampered officials’ work to prepare
Planning has proved difficult to negotiate because Brussels doesn’t believe Starmer’s government will be in place in the coming months, sources said
In any case, French and German officials say Britain has to change its red lines on the single market and customs union if it wants a meaningful reset
On Taiwan, probably this is Don's quid pro quo for China leaning on Iran to reopen the Strait, which itself benefits China.
It said the difficulties had been exacerbated in more recent years by "significant cost increases resulting from government policy choices", but did not give any further detail.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3623ny298xo
The American PE company are going to bust what was a good British company* as their model was the thought they could sell and lease back all the stores at the top of the market while interest rates were super low. And they weren't able to do do that for more than a small proportion of the stores.
* and one that used to pride themselves in good fresh produce, particularly British produce, for the price.
The recent More in Common polling at national level showed Labour 6% behind Reform, but 3% ahead with Burnham as leader, a net 9% boost. However, the subbreaks in the North West show more of an effect - Labour currently 1% ahead of Reform but 14% ahead with Burnham as leader, a net 13% boost. So Burnham would have a greater positive effect on Labour's fortunes in the North West compared to the rest of the country. Possibly even more so in Makerfield given that it's very much his patch.
Other things seem also to be going in Burnham's favour:
- the Reform candidate's far right links are out there and will be exposed in the campaign
- Restore seem lined up to energetically split the Reform vote
- the Greens are in a total mess
- Burnham's commitment to electoral reform should appeal to Lib Dems and (if they have any sense*) Greens too. No point in moaning about FPTP if you try and scupper hopes of ending up with a PM who favours reform
Polling using the 2024 result as a baseline overlooks the artificial erosion of Labour's vote as a result of parachuting in a Westminster spad to replace a long standing local MP with a personal vote.
*Admittedly, a significant caveat, Caroline Lucas excepted.
Al-Ahli 1: Ivan Toney
Arsenal 4: Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke
Aston Villa 3: Ezri Konsa, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins
Barcelona 1: Marcus Rashford
Bayer Leverkusen 1: Jarell Quansah
Bayern Munich 1: Harry Kane
Brentford 1: Jordan Henderson
Chelsea 1: Reece James
Crystal Palace 1: Dean Henderson
Everton 1: Jordan Pickford
Manchester City 4: James Trafford, John Stones, Marc Guehi, Nico O'Reilly
Manchester United 1: Kobbie Mainoo
Newcastle 3: Anthony Gordon, Dan Burn, Tino Livramento
Nottingham Forest 1: Elliot Anderson
Real Madrid 1: Jude Bellingham
After the McColls stores fold the bigger stores will follow.
Burnham 40
Reform 30
Restore 20
would provoke some interesting reactions.
Was in Bristol yesterday.
Back in Bath now, then back home this evening
Streeting is also good imo. So that contest if it happens should be easy on the ear.
The quality of Morrisons stores was alway extremely variable, on a store by store basis.