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Andy Burnham moans that Wes Streeting agrees with Andy Burnham – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,256
edited May 18 in General
Andy Burnham moans that Wes Streeting agrees with Andy Burnham – politicalbetting.com

On Saturday I thought Wes Streeting had played a blinder with his comments about Rejoining because it put Andy Burnham in an awkward position by either facing the situation of losing the by-election or losing the leadership contest with his response to Wes Streeting’s intervention.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,759
    first
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,542
    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    He's a moaner and entitled but Labour don't want Wes right now.

    Just lock the 'friends of Wes/Andy) in a room for 6 weeks to give some peace and quiet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175
    Lol
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    Wes was openly disloyal whilst Andy was officially loyal (don't snicker), no need to give him a job.
    The damage had been done - Wes could have been in cabinet but after the leadership election can focus on retaining his marginal seat
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,229
    Do I detect the hand of the Dark Lord in Streeting’s EU utterances? It’s just the sort of Machiavellian shit Mandy relishes.

    Regardless I bet he still entertains hopes of returning to being a player.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Streeting has decided to show some leg to Labour members by proposing to rejoin the EU. In doing so he has not only put clear blue water between himself and Reform and the Conservatives but between himself and Starmer and Burnham too. Starmer has a position of closer relations with the EU but not rejoin and Burnham says there are arguments for rejoin but not now as his focus is inequality reduction and state intervention etc as he knows that Reform would defeat him in the Makerfield by election if he campaigned for rejoin now as it was a strong Leave area
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058
    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,542
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    Wes was openly disloyal whilst Andy was officially loyal (don't snicker), no need to give him a job.
    I think Burnham would still have found the NEC a real hurdle if Starmer had not been holed below the water line by Streeting. It was Streeting's move in resigning and his critique that opened the door for Burnham. Burnham ought to be grateful but then, why should he show that?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,393
    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    The awkward truth for young Wesley is that Health Sec might be as far as he goes unless he can engineer and win a contested leadership election. There's no particular reason to promote him when other cabinet ministers are available, doing an OK job without Streeting's baggage.

    I'm pretty sure that a good path to a contented life is to rise to your level and then stop before the Peter Principle kicks in. But if you don't have absurd ambition, you tend not to become an MP.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    That’s a great header . Sums it up in a nutshell . I think the Burnham camp need to stop moaning as all they’re doing is making matters worse.

    Burnhams position on the EU is well known and Reform were always going to after him on that anyway . I think he might get away with it and his message seems to be to concentrate on domestic issues which will probably moderate the impact .

    As for the Tories, they absolutely should want Reform to lose this by-election even if it might give Labour a boost . A Reform win will just re-inforce the narrative that Reform are the main opposition not the Tories.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,829
    We have a branch meeting tomorrow. I suspect that it will be another of those occasions when I am in a minority of one, when I start slagging off Burnham.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,693
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    edited May 18
    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    The Tories got 7% and 2% in the 2 Westminster byelections of this Parliament. A similar result in Makerfield and it looks very poor for an official opposition mid term.

    Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty might be better prospects for the Tories to keep a deposit. If they shed votes there too then the writing is on the wall. The future then looks like being Farage's gimp
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    edited May 18
    I’m sympathetic to Burnham here. Why didn’t Streeting just wait until after the by-election?

    Losing it to Reform is fully catastrophic for Labour and doing anything to undermine him for the next few weeks is mad. If you actually believe in a closer relationship with Europe you’d wait to maximise the chance of a Labour government in ‘29.

    Streeting might end up leader of a party on 10% in the polls. Nice one 👍
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    We have a branch meeting tomorrow. I suspect that it will be another of those occasions when I am in a minority of one, when I start slagging off Burnham.

    Will you be taken away for re-education !
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    The Tories got 7% and 2% in the 2 Westminster byelections of this Parliament. A similar result in Makerfield and it looks very poor for an official opposition mid term.

    Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty might be better prospects for the Tories to keep a deposit. If they shed votes there too then the writing is on the wall. The future then looks like being Farage's gimp
    Realistically the Tories cannot win a majority while Reform remain a factor
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806

    "Andy Burnham's allies say former Health Secretary Wes Streeting's comments that Britain lies "one day back in the European Union" were unhelpful, as he seeks to stand in the Makerfield by-election"

    Well, duh. That's the point.

    A bit of discomfort in Team Ego.

    Streeting's student-politicking is going to leave him even less popular inside his party than he was before, isn't it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    edited May 18

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    The Tories got 7% and 2% in the 2 Westminster byelections of this Parliament. A similar result in Makerfield and it looks very poor for an official opposition mid term.

    Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty might be better prospects for the Tories to keep a deposit. If they shed votes there too then the writing is on the wall. The future then looks like being Farage's gimp
    Realistically the Tories cannot win a majority while Reform remain a factor
    Which is why Reform are the Tories real enemy. Labour and Lib Dems are merely opponents.

    Being the 4th or even 5th party by seat numbers at the 2029 GE is on the horizon and approaching quickly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    edited May 18

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    The Tories got 7% and 2% in the 2 Westminster byelections of this Parliament. A similar result in Makerfield and it looks very poor for an official opposition mid term.

    Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty might be better prospects for the Tories to keep a deposit. If they shed votes there too then the writing is on the wall. The future then looks like being Farage's gimp
    Realistically the Tories cannot win a majority while Reform remain a factor
    Hmm.

    Under FPTP anything is possible, especially when the parties are so close together in polls

    Anyhoo, Dave (PBUH), OGH, and many others thought there's no chance the Tories end up as the largest party at the 2015 general election if UKIP poll more than 7%.

    UKIP polled 12.6% and Dave won a majority.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,114
    On the other side of the pond, Trump's net approval rating in Nate Silver's aggregator has reached below -20% (-20.1%) for the first time in his second term.

    For reference, his low point in his first term was -21% immediately before leaving office.

    Pollsters we know well such as Yougov and Ipsos have him down at -26% and -27% respectively.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528

    nico67 said:

    We have a branch meeting tomorrow. I suspect that it will be another of those occasions when I am in a minority of one, when I start slagging off Burnham.

    Will you be taken away for re-education !
    I'll have to re-educate myself, since I'm the political education officer!
    Maoist self-criticism in front of the party faithful...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    edited May 18
    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    David was on the money with his distinction between tactical and strategic in the previous thread, and we should always remember that the long-run strategic interests of both Tory and Labour are to keep the two-party monopolisation of our politics in place and to prefer facing each other over allowing any new entrants into the market. Hence why Labour has typically preferred the LibDems not to win by-elections in Tory defended seats. As and when Reform deflates or implodes, the Tory party is back in business (if still with the challenge of working out how to appeal to both Cameron Tories and Johnson Tories).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,542

    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    The awkward truth for young Wesley is that Health Sec might be as far as he goes unless he can engineer and win a contested leadership election. There's no particular reason to promote him when other cabinet ministers are available, doing an OK job without Streeting's baggage.

    I'm pretty sure that a good path to a contented life is to rise to your level and then stop before the Peter Principle kicks in. But if you don't have absurd ambition, you tend not to become an MP.
    I think that he has a fair bit to offer. He is the first Health minister of either stripe for a very long time to stand up to the BMA. He has delivered on the targets for the NHS. There have been other factors in this but it is a rare area of genuine achievement by this government. He's articulate and numerate. But his positioning on the traditionally strong centre right of the party looks out of step with where Labour are now and where they are going.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,693
    Ratters said:

    On the other side of the pond, Trump's net approval rating in Nate Silver's aggregator has reached below -20% (-20.1%) for the first time in his second term.

    For reference, his low point in his first term was -21% immediately before leaving office.

    Pollsters we know well such as Yougov and Ipsos have him down at -26% and -27% respectively.

    But Newsom’s wife’s friend…

    Or something.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    The awkward truth for young Wesley is that Health Sec might be as far as he goes unless he can engineer and win a contested leadership election. There's no particular reason to promote him when other cabinet ministers are available, doing an OK job without Streeting's baggage.

    I'm pretty sure that a good path to a contented life is to rise to your level and then stop before the Peter Principle kicks in. But if you don't have absurd ambition, you tend not to become an MP.
    I think that he has a fair bit to offer. He is the first Health minister of either stripe for a very long time to stand up to the BMA. He has delivered on the targets for the NHS. There have been other factors in this but it is a rare area of genuine achievement by this government. He's articulate and numerate. But his positioning on the traditionally strong centre right of the party looks out of step with where Labour are now and where they are going.
    Streeting's self-belief has taken him a long way, but ultimately contains the seeds of his self-destruction. Ultimately, politics is a team sport.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058
    By the way, I'm sure @isam will find it amusing to see everyone playing up Reform this morning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    On the last thread that was "might be persuaded to vote Reform".
    At this rate, you'll be joining the party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    On the last thread that was "might be persuaded to vote Reform".
    At this rate, you'll be joining the party.
    Er, no. And well you know it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    There's me thinking that Burnhams advocacy for AV might get top billing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    On the last thread that was "might be persuaded to vote Reform".
    At this rate, you'll be joining the party.
    I'd 100% be voting Reform in this by election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
    It depends whether Casino values his views on Brexit over his economic position. Streeting is really bad news for the former and Rayner for the latter!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Not really. Neither of them are popular enough to challenge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175

    I'd not be inclined to vote for a party that's a personality cult

    You mean, you wouldn't vote for Andy?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,175
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
    That doesn't follow at all.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,798
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
    For those of us in GM, we must also consider who gets to be our mayor if Burnham swans off to Westminster. Because there's a horrible prospect that Angela Rayner stands for that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
    It depends whether Casino values his views on Brexit over his economic position. Streeting is really bad news for the former and Rayner for the latter!
    I think there is a broad consensus amongst Labour to campaign for much closer links with the EU at the next GE, with a view to eventual Rejoin. Setting the seeds to harvest at a later stage, much as Eurosceptics did under Major. Few then were openly for Leave.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Not really. Neither of them are popular enough to challenge.
    Starmer is toast. Who else is going to challenge if Burnham flops at the byelection?
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,635
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    There's me thinking that Burnhams advocacy for AV might get top billing.
    He supports Supplementary Vote, he was talking about it yesterday.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681
    Mr Burnham chose to fight his two elections on the one by-election ground so he has to accept that his rivals in the other election will fight back.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681

    I'd not be inclined to vote for a party that's a personality cult, and that personality is one who gets gifted £5m from an outside source.

    Anyone who'd both vote Reform and feels like that would probably vote Restore.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    There's me thinking that Burnhams advocacy for AV might get top billing.
    He supports Supplementary Vote, he was talking about it yesterday.
    Yes, truncated AV. Better than nothing I suppose.

    The French 2 round system is better than SV, because the voter knows who the 2 contenders are, rather than guessing.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,645
    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    Unless you think Burnham is going to flame out and you would be well positioned in 2028 as a critical friend
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,998
    edited May 18
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    David was on the money with his distinction between tactical and strategic in the previous thread, and we should always remember that the long-run strategic interests of both Tory and Labour are to keep the two-party monopolisation of our politics in place and to prefer facing each other over allowing any new entrants into the market. Hence why Labour has typically preferred the LibDems not to win by-elections in Tory defended seats. As and when Reform deflates or implodes, the Tory party is back in business (if still with the challenge of working out how to appeal to both Cameron Tories and Johnson Tories).
    I wouldn't overthink this. Either you reckon Reform is a fit party to run the country or you don't. If you do, you'll vote for them anyway. If you don't and you are a conservative living in Manchester, you will know Burnham and think his politics aren't my cup of tea but as a politician I prefer him to Farage so he'll get my vote.

    Ultimately there should be a large market for a party that is smaller state/more conservative values than Labour, but which is less corrupt in all senses than Reform. But I do fear we'll get Reform first.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    edited May 18
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    There's me thinking that Burnhams advocacy for AV might get top billing.
    He supports Supplementary Vote, he was talking about it yesterday.
    Supplementary Vote isn't great but at least it means the 650 MPs have all been elected by constituents in their constituency.

    It's also fairly easy to implement - you won't have the first seat declared at 11:00 but could well have it declared by 12 or 12:30

    Edit and I think it would be a very easy sell to the public - currently we are seeing elections being won on 30% of the vote and this will ensure that the winner is supported by at least 45% of the general public.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568

    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?

    Because Reform will be using Streetings comments to pick up Reform voters - hence you need to respond to it.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,871
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    In none of these by elections were the Tories remotely competitive. In previous parliaments their vote shrank when the LibDems were challenging Labour. The shire elections are far more consequential.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    If next year's local election results are like this year's, the Conservatives would probably staunch the bleeding, with losses to Reform matched by gains from Labour.

    By and large, I did not see much evidence this year, that Reform and the Conservatives were splitting the Right of Centre vote very much (with the exception of Sutton). The parties seem to appeal to discrete sections of the electorate.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,214

    nico67 said:

    We have a branch meeting tomorrow. I suspect that it will be another of those occasions when I am in a minority of one, when I start slagging off Burnham.

    Will you be taken away for re-education !
    I'll have to re-educate myself, since I'm the political education officer!
    "He had won the victory over himself. He loved Andy Burnham."
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327
    DavidL said:

    As I said on the last thread, Streeting has to decide what is the best he can achieve here for Wes Streeting. If he makes an enemy of Burnham he could find himself out in the cold. If he makes a friend he might be Chancellor.
    If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.

    Yes not for the first time this month Streeting has overestimated the strength of his position. I can't see Labour members wanting to vote for the fifth columnist responsible for a by-election loss.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058
    I think the assumption that Starmer is toast irrespective of the by election outcome is a big one. He’d already be gone if it were that simple.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,118
    "Andy Burnham is reminding us all why he lost two leadership contests"

    TSE is reminding us all that he's a tory and feels threatened
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,645

    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?

    Because message discipline is very hard

    People like to “have an insight” or “share confidences” or “subtly stick the knife in”
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058

    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?

    Because message discipline is very hard

    People like to “have an insight” or “share confidences” or “subtly stick the knife in”
    The problem Burnham has is that he’s going to have to run a mini-GE campaign. He’s going to need to set out his manifesto.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Yes, vote Reform get Rayner...
    That doesn't follow at all.
    Reading your series of posts, you appear to think that Starmer will see out the year?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 18
    This is superb. Someone has done a google maps of the world but added amusing visitor descriptions of what it’s actually like to go there

    I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)

    Could be the most useful map in history

    https://hoodmaps.com/london

    Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806

    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?

    Are you good, though, at controlling what your friends and allies are saying about you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    Hold this discussion until the afternoon thread.
    If next year's local election results are like this year's, the Conservatives would probably staunch the bleeding, with losses to Reform matched by gains from Labour.

    By and large, I did not see much evidence this year, that Reform and the Conservatives were splitting the Right of Centre vote very much (with the exception of Sutton). The parties seem to appeal to discrete sections of the electorate.
    The Conservatives gains from Labour this year came mainly in London. London doesn't vote next year
  • This is superb. Someone has done a google maps of the world but added amusing visitor descriptions of what it’s actually like to go there

    I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)

    Could be the most useful map in history

    https://hoodmaps.com/london

    Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant

    The area around Euston Station is summarised as “northerners outraged at drink costs”

    HAHAHAHAHA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,208

    This is superb. Someone has done a google maps of the world but added amusing visitor descriptions of what it’s actually like to go there

    I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)

    Could be the most useful map in history

    https://hoodmaps.com/london

    Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant

    Woolwich used to be a free day out: you could spend all day (until boredom set in) sailing backwards and forwards on the Woolwich ferry. It is still free but these days you'd worry about someone calling the police in case unaccompanied children who never got off were either terrorists, drug mules or neglected depending on ethnicity.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,871
    Heathener said:

    "Andy Burnham is reminding us all why he lost two leadership contests"

    TSE is reminding us all that he's a tory and feels threatened

    But what is the Tory's best interest in the by election in which their direct role will be minor - perhaps to knock a few votes off Reform?

    I suggest this: The interests of Tories are best served by a fairly resounding Labour/Burnham win. Why?

    The Tories have three years max to frame the next election in the way which gives them a chance. In the biggest picture the 2029 election will be Right v Left. It always is. Within that picture it will either be Labour v Reform or Labour v Tory.

    What it can't be is Tory v Reform. The Left of Centre is just too big - 50% of the voting pool.

    IMHO whoever wins this by election is in a decent position to be the contender for their half of the draw. If Reform win this, the next GE would be Labour v Reform. If Labour win it, the Tories are given a chance to recover the ground they have lost and frame the next election as Lab v Tory.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    In the US Trump has just taken over the Republican Party rather than destroyed it.

    In France Les Républicains still exist but divided between those like Barnier who have served in Macron’s governments and those like Ciotti who have set up a group in alliance with Le Pen, Bardella and RN
  • HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438

    Do I detect the hand of the Dark Lord in Streeting’s EU utterances? It’s just the sort of Machiavellian shit Mandy relishes.

    Regardless I bet he still entertains hopes of returning to being a player.

    Hmmm

    1) Labour factional infighting ✔
    2) Attempt at 7D chess ✔
    3) Obvious and ultimately self harming ✔

    I think you are right - Mandelbrot grade idea, if not the man himself.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,058
    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    "Andy Burnham is reminding us all why he lost two leadership contests"

    TSE is reminding us all that he's a tory and feels threatened

    But what is the Tory's best interest in the by election in which their direct role will be minor - perhaps to knock a few votes off Reform?

    I suggest this: The interests of Tories are best served by a fairly resounding Labour/Burnham win. Why?

    The Tories have three years max to frame the next election in the way which gives them a chance. In the biggest picture the 2029 election will be Right v Left. It always is. Within that picture it will either be Labour v Reform or Labour v Tory.

    What it can't be is Tory v Reform. The Left of Centre is just too big - 50% of the voting pool.

    IMHO whoever wins this by election is in a decent position to be the contender for their half of the draw. If Reform win this, the next GE would be Labour v Reform. If Labour win it, the Tories are given a chance to recover the ground they have lost and frame the next election as Lab v Tory.

    Conversely, a defeat for Labour nights strengthen the Greens which would be the Tories’s advantage against the Lib Dems.

    I guess the case against that is that it would be more a defeat for Burnham than for Starmer and Labour. How things play out in that scenario looks much more uncertain. But I think Starmer struggles on because the Labour Party doesn’t know how to do this sort of thing.
  • Good thread on what a Burnham premiership might actually do

    1/ Thought experiment doing the rounds in my head this morning. Burnham replaces Starmer. He walks into Number 10 with the Manchester accent and the real Labour framing. He announces the renationalisation of water, energy, rail, and grid. All of it. Funded by, well, vibes mostly.
    Here’s how the next twelve months actually play out.

    https://x.com/eggplant_elon/status/2055944901620068488?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    TL;DR - it doesn’t end well

    My thoughts are

    1. Burnham PROBABLY wouldn’t go this far left. He’d like to, but the gilt market would crush him before he even started

    2. I’m increasingly skeptical he will win Makerfield. The opportunity to give Labour - and the powers-that-be - an almighty kicking, will be too hard to resist. I agree with the Labour pols in the Guardian who give him a ‘45%’ chance
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    RAF Typhoons can now use APKWS missiles to take down drones.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-deploys-new-low-cost-anti-drone-system-in-the-middle-east

    The MoD do seem to be capable of getting things done during a crisis.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,694

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    Millwall are a great local team and its supporters are not mindless oafs. Typical sneering Primrose Hill prejudice against the good hard working people of SE London.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,570
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    I don't think it really matters in the same way it didn't matter that the Lib Dems didn't win Gorton and Denton.
    If the Tories lose 3 more deposits in these byelections then it really does look bad for an official opposition. Couple that with a set of dismal results in next years Shire elections and we are looking at the imminent extinction of our oldest political party.

    Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
    In the US Trump has just taken over the Republican Party rather than destroyed it.

    In France Les Républicains still exist but divided between those like Barnier who have served in Macron’s governments and those like Ciotti who have set up a group in alliance with Le Pen, Bardella and RN
    French politics is strange, and pretty unusual in the Western world. The leader is more important than the party. Parties come and go, rename themselves constantly, whereas individual politicians (Le Pen pere et fille, Macron, Bayrou, Melenchon etc) can go on for decades.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    Andy Burnham's allies shouldn't be responding to Streeting's comments at all. They should be 100% focused on the concerns of the voters, and saying so all the time, including In off-the-record chats with journalists.

    "I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."

    If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?

    Even if he does respond, there's a better way of doing it.

    Ducking the issue completely is pretty inauthentic, since many in the electorate have opinions on the matter, and know that Burnham does too. But since it's blindingly obvious to even the most committed rejoiner that rejoining the EU could only happen, at the very earliest, after a General Election, there's very little to be lost addressing it head on.
  • HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    Millwall are a great local team and its supporters are not mindless oafs. Typical sneering Primrose Hill prejudice against the good hard working people of SE London.
    Checking on hood maps I see that you live in “liberal elite ground zero” but not far from “dog’s poo” and “shankville”
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    Anyway, I still don't see an official announcement that Josh Simons has been appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds.

    Are we definitely sure this is happening?
    Would be hilarious if he got cold feet and changed his mind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Quite funny and transparent.

    You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.

    I'd vote Reform in this by election.
    Lol - given that the alternatives, if Burnham loses and since Starmer is clearly toast, are Streeting or Rayner, that's a 'double or quits' position!
    Not really. Neither of them are popular enough to challenge.
    Starmer is toast. Who else is going to challenge if Burnham flops at the byelection?
    Starmer is toast. But it is still possible that he survives, in a toasted state.

    Imagine if The Burnsiah loses. Streeting isn't especially popular with the party. The impact from Hormuz is the light of an oncoming train.

    Labour MPs Always Chicken Out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    The foolish oaf is the one who believes he alone knows what's best for the country, and that he alone gets to define patriotism.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,694

    This is superb. Someone has done a google maps of the world but added amusing visitor descriptions of what it’s actually like to go there

    I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)

    Could be the most useful map in history

    https://hoodmaps.com/london

    Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant

    Our neighbourhood is described as "Skehans" which is fair. With "Epicentre of hipness" and "yummy mummies" nearby.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,556
    Moscow highway that was on fire yesterday, now appears to have collapsed.

    https://x.com/p_kallioniemi/status/2056283948624285724

    Looks like Kerch Bridge has been closed since yesterday evening too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438

    RAF Typhoons can now use APKWS missiles to take down drones.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-deploys-new-low-cost-anti-drone-system-in-the-middle-east

    The MoD do seem to be capable of getting things done during a crisis.

    The barriers to change are more often intuitional than technical.

    There has been some hilarious 'staning for the defence industry, recently. Apparently the Evil MoD has been turning to new entrants and are funding small projects, cheaply. Which apparently risks the industrial base. Or something.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,229
    I'm sure there's no one on PB who'd fall for these no doubt hideously overpriced shoes?

    https://x.com/SNEAKERFANDAN/status/2055812830100611290?s=20
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,694

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    Millwall are a great local team and its supporters are not mindless oafs. Typical sneering Primrose Hill prejudice against the good hard working people of SE London.
    Checking on hood maps I see that you live in “liberal elite ground zero” but not far from “dog’s poo” and “shankville”
    No, Skehans, epicenter of hipness and yummy mummies.
  • This is superb. Someone has done a google maps of the world but added amusing visitor descriptions of what it’s actually like to go there

    I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)

    Could be the most useful map in history

    https://hoodmaps.com/london

    Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant

    Our neighbourhood is described as "Skehans" which is fair. With "Epicentre of hipness" and "yummy mummies" nearby.
    Yes it’s quite often uncannily accurate

    Tho slightly unfair on Thamesmead - “terrorism storage facility”
  • https://x.com/i_ammukhtar/status/2056273923696713996

    Far-right influencer EDobbin went to Tommy Robinson’s march and filmed himself harassing a 15-year-old girl in front of her mum. Even after they told him her age and walked away, he followed her, asking for her “details” and said she should have a “warning sign” on her.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 18

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    Millwall are a great local team and its supporters are not mindless oafs. Typical sneering Primrose Hill prejudice against the good hard working people of SE London.
    Checking on hood maps I see that you live in “liberal elite ground zero” but not far from “dog’s poo” and “shankville”
    No, Skehans, epicenter of hipness and yummy mummies.
    Indeed. Essentially I have no idea where you live as the whole of South London is like Siberia to me. As in: I’ve voluntarily been to Siberia twice and I’ve got a rough idea where Lake Baikal is but that’s it

    The only time I lived south of the river was when I was in HMP Brixton on a rape charge. I was basically cool with the whole rape charge thing, but I was mortified by the address
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    Bizarre story of Russian forces faking a claim of occupying a small town (pre-war population: ~5,000) in Kharkiv oblast. I wonder how far up the command chain the deception was aimed at?

    https://t.me/noel_reports/46507

    "DeepState said Russia’s Zapad grouping faked a claim of Borova’s full occupation by using infantry footage filmed 25 km away near Kolomyichykha, then adding reconnaissance drone footage over Borova. Users geolocated the mismatch."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2056098451247505587

    EXCLUSIVE from @MaxKendix

    Andy Burnham’s allies have accused Wes Streeting of trying to derail the mayor’s campaign for No 10 by reopening Labour’s Brexit battles and playing into the hands of Reform UK

    His intervention prompted a furious response from Burnham’s supporters, who said it was a deliberate attempt to elevate Brexit as an issue in the Leave-voting seat of Makerfield, which the mayor of Greater Manchester must win to contest the party leadership

    One Burnham ally said: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election. [Streeting’s] comments … are counterproductive to Labour winning this by-election. It’s very transparent.”

    An MP close to Burnham said it was a “a roll of the dice” by Streeting because “he can see the writing is on the wall”. A friend of Burnham said Streeting was “clearly trying to create a dividing line.”

    Please please please let's not talk about Brexit until after I've won.

    Andy Burnham must be the most disingenuous candidate out there.
    It’s an unusual situation. Normally, a politician has to win over their party before winning over the public. This is the reverse.
    The public really don’t like being told what to think by the politicians. Burnham, like Starmer, is tying himself in knots to say one thing nationally and the opposite locally.

    I think I could probably be persuaded to vote Reform if I lived in Makerfield, it will be interesting to see how much of a paper candidate the Tories put up.

    Nationally, Kemi will want to give the impression of fighting hard for every seat, but locally I suspect they lose their deposit and don’t care much if it keeps Burnham out of the Commons.

    Could Burnham’s campaign for the top job be the biggest instant failure since Ron DeSantis?
    It’s an interesting question what is in the Tories’ best long term interests. Remember there’s also the question of Reform winning the by-election, which is bad news for them, compared to Reform’s bubble continuing to slowly leak. With a Labour winner, the Tories would prefer Starmer staying to getting Burnham, but maybe they’d rather Burnham than Streeting? Whereas they wouldn’t mind Ange. Burnham also puts PR back on the agenda, which instinctively the Tories hate, yet might actually be in their best interests.
    I think it's in the Tories' interests for Reform to win following a calamitous campaign by Burnham in which the Labour Party is clearly split.
    Yes that was my thinking.

    Tories got just shy of 11% at the last election, as Reform got more than 30%.

    So the obvious move from the Tories is to run a paper candidate - assuming that Reform run a properly-vetted local candidate who doesn’t turn out to be one of Tommy Robinson’s football hooligan mates

    Big G sees it the other way round, that from the country’s point of view Burnham’s better than Rayner or Streeting; that Reform are the Tories’ main rivals, so the Tories should campaign hard and split the right-of-centre vote.

    I think both are valid, but given the seat demographics the Tory soft-pedal is the better option here.
    I think its strategic against tactical and the strategic position supports @Big_G_NorthWales. Reform is a threat to the very existence of the Tory party. Labour isn't. A win for Reform here would throw Labour into total chaos and undermine the Labour government but it would make Reform, not the Tories, the threat to that government. The price for the Tories of a Reform win is too high a price to pay and they should do what they can to encourage their supporters not to back Reform.
    I agree on strategy v tactics, but would save strategy for the general election, use the tactics for a by-election which is only happening as a vanity project for the Labour candidate.
    If Reform win then they are going to have all the momentum and will be the next Government. Which I suspect would reduce the incentive for people to vote Tory, if you want a right wing party vote for the winner (Reform), if you don't vote Lib Dem / Labour as appropriate.

    The Tories need the status quo kept in place
    Makerfield is seat 29 on Reform's target list:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk

    Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.

    The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
    The Tories have lost most votes to Reform. Badenoch is campaigning nationally on the line that only the Tories can beat Labour. The better Reform do, the less Badenoch’s line works, the worse it is for the Tories. Labour winning a Labour seat doesn’t hurt the Tories; Reform winning is very bad for them.
    Yes, as a Tory I want Burnham to win the by election. Burnham polls best in the North, Wales and Midlands and would take votes from Reform and the Greens. However he polls worst in the South so would not take many votes from the Tories and would enable Kemi to put clear blue low tax, controlled spending water with a high tax, high spend Burnham led Labour
    Then you’re not a true patriot and you’re certainly not right wing. If Reform wins here that could actually be the end of Labour - forever. Given what damage they’ve done to the country surely that is overwhelmingly desirable? Yes it might mean the end of your party too, but who cares. It’s just a party

    It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN

    I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
    I am a Tory, not hard right. If the Tory party didn’t exist I would be a swing voter between LD and Reform, I wouldn’t join Reform.

    I don’t especially want to see the end of Labour either, they are certainly better than the Polanski Greens.

    Reform would destroy the UK and could end the Union, the Greens would destroy the economy and end the monarchy.
This discussion has been closed.