Andy Burnham moans that Wes Streeting agrees with Andy Burnham – politicalbetting.com
Andy Burnham moans that Wes Streeting agrees with Andy Burnham – politicalbetting.com
On Saturday I thought Wes Streeting had played a blinder with his comments about Rejoining because it put Andy Burnham in an awkward position by either facing the situation of losing the by-election or losing the leadership contest with his response to Wes Streeting’s intervention.
2
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
If I was advising him I would point out that the prospects of him beating Rayner or even Miliband without Burnham are poor to non existent so trying hard to become a part of team Burnham is probably the right way forward.
Just lock the 'friends of Wes/Andy) in a room for 6 weeks to give some peace and quiet.
The Tories need the status quo kept in place
Regardless I bet he still entertains hopes of returning to being a player.
If Burnham is ever to beat Farage, it won't be because he's a better liar.
He should stick with what he believes in, and make the case for it. The gulf between him and Farage in Europe isn't exactly a secret, and there's no running away from it.
PR is another good example. Farage has backed it for years, and now seems to have decided it's poison, as soon as he has a sniff of power.
The alternative is taking the electorate for fools. Again, Farage is better at that.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
Whilst I think the Burnham factor should be taken into account, Reform really ought to win this by election. I don't think it does the Tories much harm if they do.
The best scenario for the Tories is if Labour goes left. They need the Lib Dems and their voters to be in a tricky position.
I'm pretty sure that a good path to a contented life is to rise to your level and then stop before the Peter Principle kicks in. But if you don't have absurd ambition, you tend not to become an MP.
Burnhams position on the EU is well known and Reform were always going to after him on that anyway . I think he might get away with it and his message seems to be to concentrate on domestic issues which will probably moderate the impact .
As for the Tories, they absolutely should want Reform to lose this by-election even if it might give Labour a boost . A Reform win will just re-inforce the narrative that Reform are the main opposition not the Tories.
Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty might be better prospects for the Tories to keep a deposit. If they shed votes there too then the writing is on the wall. The future then looks like being Farage's gimp
Losing it to Reform is fully catastrophic for Labour and doing anything to undermine him for the next few weeks is mad. If you actually believe in a closer relationship with Europe you’d wait to maximise the chance of a Labour government in ‘29.
Streeting might end up leader of a party on 10% in the polls. Nice one 👍
Being the 4th or even 5th party by seat numbers at the 2029 GE is on the horizon and approaching quickly.
Under FPTP anything is possible, especially when the parties are so close together in polls
Anyhoo, Dave (PBUH), OGH, and many others thought there's no chance the Tories end up as the largest party at the 2015 general election if UKIP poll more than 7%.
UKIP polled 12.6% and Dave won a majority.
For reference, his low point in his first term was -21% immediately before leaving office.
Pollsters we know well such as Yougov and Ipsos have him down at -26% and -27% respectively.
Or something.
You want the Tories to split the Reform vote so Burnham safely gets home, so he can then perform his Jiu-Jitsu moves to get us locked in with the EU.
I'd vote Reform in this by election.
Look at how the Populist right have destroyed traditional conservative parties elsewhere, notably France and USA. It is very possible.
At this rate, you'll be joining the party.
The French 2 round system is better than SV, because the voter knows who the 2 contenders are, rather than guessing.
Ultimately there should be a large market for a party that is smaller state/more conservative values than Labour, but which is less corrupt in all senses than Reform. But I do fear we'll get Reform first.
It's also fairly easy to implement - you won't have the first seat declared at 11:00 but could well have it declared by 12 or 12:30
Edit and I think it would be a very easy sell to the public - currently we are seeing elections being won on 30% of the vote and this will ensure that the winner is supported by at least 45% of the general public.
"I have no response to Streeting's statements on the EU, because I'm concentrating on policies to improve the lives of hard-working people in the here and now."
If it's blindingly obvious to a random like me why is it so hard for people who do politics professionally?
By and large, I did not see much evidence this year, that Reform and the Conservatives were splitting the Right of Centre vote very much (with the exception of Sutton). The parties seem to appeal to discrete sections of the electorate.
TSE is reminding us all that he's a tory and feels threatened
People like to “have an insight” or “share confidences” or “subtly stick the knife in”
I live in a leafier bit of Camden NW1. I’m equidistant between “clutch your phone” (Camden town tube - exactly right), “fat cyclists in Lycra” (inner circle, bang on) and “extremely posh houses” (where Peter Mandelson lives)
Could be the most useful map in history
https://hoodmaps.com/london
Woolwich is dismissed, in toto, as “lol machetes”. Brilliant
HAHAHAHAHA
I suggest this: The interests of Tories are best served by a fairly resounding Labour/Burnham win. Why?
The Tories have three years max to frame the next election in the way which gives them a chance. In the biggest picture the 2029 election will be Right v Left. It always is. Within that picture it will either be Labour v Reform or Labour v Tory.
What it can't be is Tory v Reform. The Left of Centre is just too big - 50% of the voting pool.
IMHO whoever wins this by election is in a decent position to be the contender for their half of the draw. If Reform win this, the next GE would be Labour v Reform. If Labour win it, the Tories are given a chance to recover the ground they have lost and frame the next election as Lab v Tory.
In France Les Républicains still exist but divided between those like Barnier who have served in Macron’s governments and those like Ciotti who have set up a group in alliance with Le Pen, Bardella and RN
It’s the country that matters. Britain. The British people. Ending Labour would be brilliant for GREAT BRITAIN
I’m afraid this is final proof that in the end you’re not a patriot and you’re not even that political. You support the Tory party out of sheer tribalism. Like a mindless oaf supporting Millwall
1) Labour factional infighting ✔
2) Attempt at 7D chess ✔
3) Obvious and ultimately self harming ✔
I think you are right - Mandelbrot grade idea, if not the man himself.
I guess the case against that is that it would be more a defeat for Burnham than for Starmer and Labour. How things play out in that scenario looks much more uncertain. But I think Starmer struggles on because the Labour Party doesn’t know how to do this sort of thing.
1/ Thought experiment doing the rounds in my head this morning. Burnham replaces Starmer. He walks into Number 10 with the Manchester accent and the real Labour framing. He announces the renationalisation of water, energy, rail, and grid. All of it. Funded by, well, vibes mostly.
Here’s how the next twelve months actually play out.
https://x.com/eggplant_elon/status/2055944901620068488?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
TL;DR - it doesn’t end well
My thoughts are
1. Burnham PROBABLY wouldn’t go this far left. He’d like to, but the gilt market would crush him before he even started
2. I’m increasingly skeptical he will win Makerfield. The opportunity to give Labour - and the powers-that-be - an almighty kicking, will be too hard to resist. I agree with the Labour pols in the Guardian who give him a ‘45%’ chance
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-deploys-new-low-cost-anti-drone-system-in-the-middle-east
The MoD do seem to be capable of getting things done during a crisis.
Ducking the issue completely is pretty inauthentic, since many in the electorate have opinions on the matter, and know that Burnham does too. But since it's blindingly obvious to even the most committed rejoiner that rejoining the EU could only happen, at the very earliest, after a General Election, there's very little to be lost addressing it head on.
Are we definitely sure this is happening?
Would be hilarious if he got cold feet and changed his mind.
Imagine if The Burnsiah loses. Streeting isn't especially popular with the party. The impact from Hormuz is the light of an oncoming train.
Labour MPs Always Chicken Out.
https://x.com/p_kallioniemi/status/2056283948624285724
Looks like Kerch Bridge has been closed since yesterday evening too.
There has been some hilarious 'staning for the defence industry, recently. Apparently the Evil MoD has been turning to new entrants and are funding small projects, cheaply. Which apparently risks the industrial base. Or something.
https://x.com/SNEAKERFANDAN/status/2055812830100611290?s=20
Tho slightly unfair on Thamesmead - “terrorism storage facility”
Far-right influencer EDobbin went to Tommy Robinson’s march and filmed himself harassing a 15-year-old girl in front of her mum. Even after they told him her age and walked away, he followed her, asking for her “details” and said she should have a “warning sign” on her.
The only time I lived south of the river was when I was in HMP Brixton on a rape charge. I was basically cool with the whole rape charge thing, but I was mortified by the address
https://t.me/noel_reports/46507
"DeepState said Russia’s Zapad grouping faked a claim of Borova’s full occupation by using infantry footage filmed 25 km away near Kolomyichykha, then adding reconnaissance drone footage over Borova. Users geolocated the mismatch."
I don’t especially want to see the end of Labour either, they are certainly better than the Polanski Greens.
Reform would destroy the UK and could end the Union, the Greens would destroy the economy and end the monarchy.