'John McDonnell has told @cathynewman he hopes Andy Burnham reinstates Jeremy Corbyn as a Labour MP and he’d “raise it with him” personally. @TimesRadio'
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
Starmer knowingly appointed a security risk to one of the highest diplomatic posts the nation has an gave him privileged access to classified information. Mandelson literally sold state secrets to Epstein and has a lot of dodgy links to China and Russia. That is an unforgiving lapse in judgement. Boris being ambushed with cake pales in comparison to the amount of damage someone like Mandelson has done and could continue to do in the position he was appointed to.
The cake business wasn’t the issue. This is pushed as a means to suggest the poor thing was so badly treated . The cake didn’t bring him down it was all the other stuff happening under his watch .
But the point is that Boris didn't actually go to any of those parties, at least that's what was discovered from actual evidence. The only thing that happened when Boris was actually there was the cake thing. And even then Boris actually resigned. So you know he took accountability for that. When has Starmer taken accountability for his failures?
There was a photo of Johnson with drink in hand at one of the parties. I don't know why people continue to make excuses for him.
There were also photos of Starmer with a bottle of beer in hand at his curry eating event.
… at a later point in the pandemic when the rules had been relaxed.
Starmer knowingly appointed a security risk to one of the highest diplomatic posts the nation has an gave him privileged access to classified information. Mandelson literally sold state secrets to Epstein and has a lot of dodgy links to China and Russia. That is an unforgiving lapse in judgement. Boris being ambushed with cake pales in comparison to the amount of damage someone like Mandelson has done and could continue to do in the position he was appointed to.
It’s not a lapse in judgement. He considered ot and decided it was the right thing to do.
He just had poor judgement - this wasn’t a one time error
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
Maybe that's how Starmer survives. Reform win, but there are allegations of overspending and Starmer says that he can't go until Burnham gets another chance.
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
Their partner could buy a house in Platt Wazz with the change, too.
Makerfield. Restore Britain is holding a local branch meeting in the area tonight, and a decision on our next steps will be taken over the weekend.
The mood with the membership locally is that we are very much up for a fight.
What I find hilarious is how ridiculously short Rupert Lowe is for next PM.
He was 75/1 last time I checked. Which was 3 times more likely than Rachel Reeves.
He probably is three times more likely than Rachel Reeves. Both scenarios are ludicrous, but it's just about possible to imagine a pathway for RL that involves Farage falling under a bus, and Reform and Restore merging whilst maintaining Reform's current position in the polls. What on earth would have to happen for RR to become PM? You'd need rows of busses to dispose of all the people the PLP would chose as leader over RR, and that's before she goes in front of the membership.
I suppose if Burnham took over, sacked her, then crashes and burns in a Truss style debt crisis she might just be in with a sniff, but if that happened I would have thought it would be more likely the PLP handed the job to Streeting with RR back as CofE.
Do you think Starmer wont stand in the end? Wonder if he tries to do a deal to get foreign sec, the bit of the PM job je seems to enjoy.
That wouldn’t work . You can’t have an ex PM in cabinet so soon after being pushed out and I doubt Starmer would even want it . Cameron came back after many years and wasn’t appointed by a PM who had shafted him .
Former PM Alec Douglas-Home (62-63?) was Foreign Secretary under Heath in the 1970s
Douglas-Home stepped down in 1965 having lost the 64 Election
Heath then won the first ever Election for the Tory leadership beating Reginald Maudling and Enoch Powell
So it was a slightly different dynamic compared to the one we are currently experiencing
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
A lot of people are assuming that because Burnham is so popular in Greater Manchester that that popularity would extend to the rest of the country. That's a big assumption to make imo.
Has some polling evidence for it, Yougov this month gives Burnham a +15% rating in the North, +12% in Wales, +5% in the Midlands, + 5% in London and +2% in Scotland. He is only viewed negatively in the South but even then only at -5%
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
Makerfield. Restore Britain is holding a local branch meeting in the area tonight, and a decision on our next steps will be taken over the weekend.
The mood with the membership locally is that we are very much up for a fight.
What I find hilarious is how ridiculously short Rupert Lowe is for next PM.
He was 75/1 last time I checked. Which was 3 times more likely than Rachel Reeves.
He probably is three times more likely than Rachel Reeves. Both scenarios are ludicrous, but it's just about possible to imagine a pathway for RL that involves Farage falling under a bus, and Reform and Restore merging whilst maintaining Reform's current position in the polls. What on earth would have to happen for RR to become PM? You'd need rows of busses to dispose of all the people the PLP would chose as leader over RR, and that's before she goes in front of the membership.
I suppose if Burnham took over, sacked her, then crashes and burns in a Truss style debt crisis she might just be in with a sniff, but if that happened I would have thought it would be more likely the PLP handed the job to Streeting with RR back as CofE.
Even in your latter scenario Reeves wouldn't be the next PM. Burnham would be the next PM, and Reeves would be the PM after.
There are some truly absurd odds for next PM, particularly given what's happened in the last day and a bit.
I don't suppose it really matters what odds someone gets for Rupert Lowe or Oliver Dowden to be next PM. They're both absurdities.
Presumably she takes the view that if we were still in the EU all SKS would have had to do is to stick to the EU party line ... sorry, I mean procedures.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
The seat is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
I'm not sure Burnham will have proved any such thing. He'll have shown that everyone wants to kick Starmer in the nuts, but that's hardly news. He's also currently running as a blank slate of hopium, which won't survive contact with being PM for long.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
You can’t get a more unbiased observer after all. She’s on the ground in Makerfield gauging the mood I’ve no doubt.
A lot of people are assuming that because Burnham is so popular in Greater Manchester that that popularity would extend to the rest of the country. That's a big assumption to make imo.
Has some polling evidence for it, Yougov this month gives Burnham a +15% rating in the North, +12% in Wales, +5% in the Midlands, + 5% in London and +2% in Scotland. He is only viewed negatively in the South but even then only at -5%
So he's a bit less popular outside the North and Midlands, as I expected.
Though in London he polls as well as the Midlands and he is still net positive in Scotland and Wales too.
Only in the South Is Burnham unpopular, so Burnham's leadership of Labour would likely be less of a worry for Kemi and Davey than it would be for Farage, Swinney and Polanski and ap Iorwerth
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
She's right. Hopefully when that piece of uslessness gets replaced we might get a government who knows right vfrom wrong. We might even get our BBC back. The one we had before it became emasculated.
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
If Reform win there's a whole heap of prospective MPs needed for them in 2029, I think candidates need to stand plenty of their own expenses for themselves - so perhaps Reform are just paying for the buses which wouldn't be all that much, I'd guess they might even have a few coach drivers on their books
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
I remember Crick getting extremely over excited that the Tories had widely overspent, wasnt it something about shipping a load of student activists around the country? He was banging on about every night as scandal of the century
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
The seat is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
I'm not sure Burnham will have proved any such thing. He'll have shown that everyone wants to kick Starmer in the nuts, but that's hardly news. He's also currently running as a blank slate of hopium, which won't survive contact with being PM for long.
Oh I don't know; there are quite a few politicians who've managed to keep running on hopium long past its typical half life.
Just a helpful reminder that bussing in armies of outside supporters who don't know the area isn't always a plus. It was noted as a driver of Plaid support in Caerphilly.
Just a helpful reminder that bussing in armies of outside supporters who don't know the area isn't always a plus. It was noted as a driver of Plaid support in Caerphilly.
Also Reform zealots might not be universally welcomed on the doorsteps.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
I remember Crick getting extremely over excited that the Tories had widely overspent, wasnt it something about shipping a load of student activists around the country? He was banging on about every night as scandal of the century
Wasn't that just for the Reckless by-election? I forget.
Anyone, point is that the worst that happens is that a few election agents are sacrificed to the courts, but if the money makes a difference and the election is won as a result no British court is daring to unseat the Prime Minister over it.
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Burnham is a local lad in Makerfield, but he isn't a local lad in Ashfield, Huddersfield or Lichfield.
On a human level I thought Starmer looked forlorn, even haunted today, and I did feel a bit for him
But politics is politics and he simply is not suited to be PM
Curiously, I had said exactly the same before I read your post. Yesterday morning he was full of vim ready to take on all comers with all the advantages of office. But, firstly with Wes and then with Burnham’s moves, it all fizzled away. He has weeks left as PM but the power has gone already. He cuts a sorry figure. If he wasn’t such a shit I would feel sorry for him.
Where’s that vitriol come from? Disagree with his politics, lament his ineptitude, but a bit like Theresa May I don’t think he’s an unnecessarily cruel individual.
The internet is a pretty nasty place sometimes and I think that is influencing how people feel about Starmer. Frankly if he did possess the kind of malice people suggest then he might have been a much better PM.
For me it's been throwing people in front of the bus for his own failures and mistakes. A real leader takes proper accountability and he's shown that he's not up to it and he's all too willing to scapegoat everyone else. The hypocrisy of how he called for Boris to resign for, IMO, much lesser offences than his repeated failures on Mandelson and then blame shifted all the responsibility to underlings has made me actively loathe him.
He has a lot of skeletons in the cupboard too. Actively loathing him is spot on. I have no sympathy for him especially in amongst that nest of vipers. As ye sew so shall ye reap.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
I remember Crick getting extremely over excited that the Tories had widely overspent, wasnt it something about shipping a load of student activists around the country? He was banging on about every night as scandal of the century
Wasn't that just for the Reckless by-election? I forget.
Anyone, point is that the worst that happens is that a few election agents are sacrificed to the courts, but if the money makes a difference and the election is won as a result no British court is daring to unseat the Prime Minister over it.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
Yes. The result is a potential watershed.
by-election of the decade if not the century to be honest.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
honestly i think you are getting carried away there.
Seems at least a distinct possibility that Burnham becomes PM and ends up completely wrecking his image and his favourability with voters simply because incumbents in the current climate get it in the neck from angry voters. And he will be dealing with the Iran War economic hit which is going to be massive if it doesn't get sorted in next month.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
If Burnham wins, it's probably not worth even having elections in future. So popular will he be that the whole mechanics of voting, etc., seem like a total waste of time and money.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
If Burnham wins, it's probably not worth even having elections in future. So popular will he be that the whole mechanics of voting, etc., seem like a total waste of time and money.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 47m Reform supporters getting a little angry. Not sure why. Journalists were briefed today Reform had 50 activists out in Makerfield. I think that was a complete lie. But I’m happy to be proved wrong if someone will provide evidence.
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
She's right. Hopefully when that piece of uslessness gets replaced we might get a government who knows right vfrom wrong. We might even get our BBC back. The one we had before it became emasculated.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
If Burnham wins, it's probably not worth even having elections in future. So popular will he be that the whole mechanics of voting, etc., seem like a total waste of time and money.
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
According to the World Bank, US GDP growth was 2.9% in 2023
It's population growth rates. I think it might be true, though annual estimates of population growth rates vary wildly. I've found figures of 0.6% and 0.83% cited for the US for 2023. Presumably 2023 was the peak of the Boriswave, so saw unusually large population growth in the UK.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
And the bond markets
If he funded spending through higher taxes the bond markets couldn't argue it was unfunded.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Burnham is a local lad in Makerfield, but he isn't a local lad in Ashfield, Huddersfield or Lichfield.
As I already posted Burnham has positive net favourables in every GB region except the South
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
I respectfully disagree. I don't think such a result would be much use in predicting any other results.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
I respectfully disagree. I don't think such a result would be much use in predicting any other results.
Of course it would, Reform won over 50% of the vote in Makerfield last week, if Burnham won it it would be a huge swing back from Reform to Labour
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 47m Reform supporters getting a little angry. Not sure why. Journalists were briefed today Reform had 50 activists out in Makerfield. I think that was a complete lie. But I’m happy to be proved wrong if someone will provide evidence.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
Burnham- any of 'em- will have the advantage of not having Johnson and Corbyn fans willing him to fail from the start. And Burnham probably does have more of the teflon quality to get away with Stuff than any PM for a while. If his return to the Commons is over a defeated RefUKker, that might give him the swagger that's probably key to cutting Farage off at the knees.
If it works.
Whether our next PM, whoever that is, is able to use their opportunity wisely and well to do some painful stuff to achieve some good stuff remains to be seen.
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
I remember Crick getting extremely over excited that the Tories had widely overspent, wasnt it something about shipping a load of student activists around the country? He was banging on about every night as scandal of the century
Wasn't that just for the Reckless by-election? I forget.
Anyone, point is that the worst that happens is that a few election agents are sacrificed to the courts, but if the money makes a difference and the election is won as a result no British court is daring to unseat the Prime Minister over it.
Its not about directly overturning the GE as such. Its about forcing a by-election in several constituencies. Whether that is then enough to change the overall GE result depends entirely on the winning party's majority.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
I am not at all sure about that
Any Burnham win will be portrayed as Farage losing, but if Reform win labour are facing an existential crises
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
Burnham isn't a centrist dork though is he, he is a Northerner and a bit of a lad now on the left of the Labour party,
Makerfield is only the 29th Reform target seat, if Farage can't even beat Labour there, Reform won't even get 50 seats at the next general election if Burnham replaces Starmer as PM! Then you are back to Kemi is our only hope to beat Labour
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Burnham is a local lad in Makerfield, but he isn't a local lad in Ashfield, Huddersfield or Lichfield.
As I already posted Burnham has positive net favourables in every GB region except the South
Your occasional reminder that people often vote very differently in Local and Parliamantary elections.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
I respectfully disagree. I don't think such a result would be much use in predicting any other results.
Yeah, this is ridiculous. Burnham, for reasons that frankly escape me, the flavour of the moment and the man (of course) who is going to replace the extremely unpopular boring prat that is PM right now. Winning will prove next to nothing in the overall scheme of things. Losing is another story.
Downing Street is refusing to hand over Lord Mandelson’s vetting file to Parliament, prompting accusations of a cover-up. Officials have withheld the key document from a second tranche of papers released to MPs about the peer’s appointment as ambassador to the US. The move has been condemned by Parliament’s intelligence and security committee (ISC), which is overseeing the publication of the Mandelson files.
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
Burnham isn't a centrist dork though is he, he is a Northerner and a bit of a lad now on the left of the Labour party,
Makerfield is only the 29th Reform target seat, if Farage can't even beat Labour there, Reform won't even get 50 seats at the next general election if Burnham replaces Starmer as PM! Then you are back to Kemi is our only hope to beat Labour
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
Presumably the election period hasn’t officially started yet.
The rules say
You will become a candidate on this date if you or others have already announced your intention to stand.5 For example, your party may have issued a press release when you were selected, you might have mentioned your intention at a residents’ meeting, or you may have already begun campaigning.
I think you could argue that the election is on now the date has been announced.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
Trump will be gone as POTUS by the time of the next UK GE
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Burnham is a local lad in Makerfield, but he isn't a local lad in Ashfield, Huddersfield or Lichfield.
As I already posted Burnham has positive net favourables in every GB region except the South
Your occasional reminder that people often vote very differently in Local and Parliamantary elections.
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
Burnham's carpetbagging may not be ignored by the Makersfield voter
Does he not liver there, or within a stone's throw of there at any rate? This isn't carpet bagging. Its certainly opportunistic but its not carpet bagging.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
People are definitely projecting a lot of hopes and dreams onto Burnham just as they did in 2024 with Starmer and 2017 with Corbyn. Might be a good idea to wait and see what he's like as PM (if he wins the by election).
There's a very real possibility he becomes Labour's Liz Truss, mortgage rates spike and public opinion sours on him very quickly. Just the fear of him becoming PM has sent our debt yields to the highest in the G7 once again.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
Burnham isn't a centrist dork though is he, he is a Northerner and a bit of a lad now on the left of the Labour party,
Makerfield is only the 29th Reform target seat, if Farage can't even beat Labour there, Reform won't even get 50 seats at the next general election if Burnham replaces Starmer as PM! Then you are back to Kemi is our only hope to beat Labour
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
An interesting fact from Google AI, assuming it's correct.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
Over a lot of America there is net outward migration.
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
@HYUFD please don't sink to the depths of the Centrist Dorks. They are lost, forever. They wishcast and hopecast 24/7. It is pathetic
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
Burnham isn't a centrist dork though is he, he is a Northerner and a bit of a lad now on the left of the Labour party,
Makerfield is only the 29th Reform target seat, if Farage can't even beat Labour there, Reform won't even get 50 seats at the next general election if Burnham replaces Starmer as PM! Then you are back to Kemi is our only hope to beat Labour
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
Trump will be gone as POTUS by the time of the next UK GE
Yeh but the economic effects of his War will still be with us.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
Fair enough. Commendable honesty
The way I see it, this by-election is nearly all downside risk for Labour. I am trying to be objective, but that is what I see
To explain: if Burnham wins - unless he wins massively (highly unlikely) - that's a nice boost for the party, but it will soon be overwhelmed by the grisly reality of the leadership struggle (will Starmer go quietly? Will the Labour right meekly submit?) followed by the blood letting of reshuffles. And then the reality of trying to improve Britain in the midst of all the headwinds
Will a loss be a blow for Farage? Yes, but pretty modest, unless they are idiots. It can be portrayed as a vote against the Labour prime minister, with a very unusual and prominent Labour candidate, on his home turf, etc etc. It means almost nothing for the other 650 seats in the Commons
However, if even Andy Burnham cannot win, against Reform, in a traditionally Labour constituency, in his home town, where he is a popular Labour mayor - well, then Labour really are existentially fucked. And then they still have Starmer in power...
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
I would suggest that depends very much on what he then does as PM. Much like Starmer, people may find the reality of a Burnham Government very different from the expectation.
People are definitely projecting a lot of hopes and dreams onto Burnham just as they did in 2024 with Starmer and 2017 with Corbyn. Might be a good idea to wait and see what he's like as PM (if he wins the by election).
There's a very real possibility he becomes Labour's Liz Truss, mortgage rates spike and public opinion sours on him very quickly. Just the fear of him becoming PM has sent our debt yields to the highest in the G7 once again.
If he funds spending with high tax though (and Burnham has promised a land tax, wealth tax and to put the top income tax rate back up to 50%) he will have balanced the books better than Truss. Truss cut tax but not spending so ended up with huge borrowing plans which the markets won't forgive
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Makerfield is in the top 50 Reform target seats, on current polls Reform should easily win it. However if Burnham wins it he has proved he could transform Labour's fortunes overnight
My hunch is that Burnham wins by about 3,000 votes. But Reform don't need to be discouraged by such a result of course, it's a bit of a one-off so to speak.
If Burnham won by 3,000 votes that would suggest a Burnham Labour party would win most seats not Reform, that would be devastating for Farage
If Andy Burnham could be a local candidate in 350 constituencies it would.
If Burnham then became Labour leader the bounce would be GB wide
Burnham is a local lad in Makerfield, but he isn't a local lad in Ashfield, Huddersfield or Lichfield.
As I already posted Burnham has positive net favourables in every GB region except the South
Your occasional reminder that people often vote very differently in Local and Parliamantary elections.
This was a GB parliamentary election poll
Labour with Starmer were on 35% in the polls in the run up to the 2024 election. I'm not sure you can make any judgements on how Labour will do in 2029 until/unless he actually becomes PM and starts having to make lots of unpopular decisions or blows up the economy by not being able to do so and just borrowing loads.
Reform are running buses full of supporters from as many counties as possible up to Makerfield for this weekend, and have hired hotels all over the area. Labour's operation also well underway.
Hiring hotels and those buses count as an election expense and the election has started so all this spending is part of the £180,050 that Reform can spend in total
The Electoral Commission claims the earliest you can become a candidate is the day a vacancy occurs. As Simons's has not taken the Hundreds/Northstead they may argue that it's outside the period. I'm sure the court case will be tedious and well reported.
If the coach trips to Maketfield are personal gifts do they count as election expenses?
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
On the first, you can’t avoid expenses by having stuff gifted, or even discounted below commercial cost. You have to declare the full market cost.
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
All this shows that in GE 2028/9 money will not be an issue for Reform. They are going to try to spend their way into power.
Nobody is going to force a rerun of a general election because a party broke spending limits. The rules are a fiction that the parties have mostly stuck to, most of the time, because no party wants to end up needing to raise £100m to fight a general election.
I remember Crick getting extremely over excited that the Tories had widely overspent, wasnt it something about shipping a load of student activists around the country? He was banging on about every night as scandal of the century
Wasn't that just for the Reckless by-election? I forget.
Anyone, point is that the worst that happens is that a few election agents are sacrificed to the courts, but if the money makes a difference and the election is won as a result no British court is daring to unseat the Prime Minister over it.
Its not about directly overturning the GE as such. Its about forcing a by-election in several constituencies. Whether that is then enough to change the overall GE result depends entirely on the winning party's majority.
Well, there are supposedly limits on national spending too. Which constituencies do you rerun if those are breached?
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
The Guardian has published their top 100 novels of all time, entries 21 to 100. Embarassingly I think I've read 6 and a half of them, with Midnight's Children being the half. The 6 are White Teeth, Half of a Yellow Sun, Never Let Me Go, Disgrace, Frankenstein, The Remains of the Day.
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
Fair enough. Commendable honesty
The way I see it, this by-election is nearly all downside risk for Labour. I am trying to be objective, but that is what I see
To explain: if Burnham wins - unless he wins massively (highly unlikely) - that's a nice boost for the party, but it will soon be overwhelmed by the grisly reality of the leadership struggle (will Starmer go quietly? Will the Labour right meekly submit?) followed by the blood letting of reshuffles. And then the reality of trying to improve Britain in the midst of all the headwinds
Will a loss be a blow for Farage? Yes, but pretty modest, unless they are idiots. It can be portrayed as a vote against the Labour prime minister, with a very unusual and prominent Labour candidate, on his home turf, etc etc. It means almost nothing for the other 650 seats in the Commons
However, if even Andy Burnham cannot win, against Reform, in a traditionally Labour constituency, in his home town, where he is a popular Labour mayor - well, then Labour really are existentially fucked. And then they still have Starmer in power...
Makerfield is only Reform's 29th target seat, Labour could lose it and still have a comfortable majority. If Burnham loses it will just be Streeting who challenges Starmer, if Reform lose it though that would totally stall any Reform momentum.
Kemi could also say that if Reform can't even win their 29th target seat then only the Tories can beat Labour, as usual
If Burnham wins it strongly suggests a 10 year Labour government.
Evidence A in my case against the PB Centrist Dork groupthink clusterwank
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
Not me. The next three years are going to be rough as shit economically unless Trump can get some way out of Iran War and PM Burnham will get the blame.
Fair enough. Commendable honesty
The way I see it, this by-election is nearly all downside risk for Labour. I am trying to be objective, but that is what I see
To explain: if Burnham wins - unless he wins massively (highly unlikely) - that's a nice boost for the party, but it will soon be overwhelmed by the grisly reality of the leadership struggle (will Starmer go quietly? Will the Labour right meekly submit?) followed by the blood letting of reshuffles. And then the reality of trying to improve Britain in the midst of all the headwinds
Will a loss be a blow for Farage? Yes, but pretty modest, unless they are idiots. It can be portrayed as a vote against the Labour prime minister, with a very unusual and prominent Labour candidate, on his home turf, etc etc. It means almost nothing for the other 650 seats in the Commons
However, if even Andy Burnham cannot win, against Reform, in a traditionally Labour constituency, in his home town, where he is a popular Labour mayor - well, then Labour really are existentially fucked. And then they still have Starmer in power...
Although I'm sticking with my analysis that I'd be surprised if Burnham loses, I tend more towards your analysis of the longer term import of it. Losing Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton weren't crushing blows for Reform.
Comments
What if the passengers are all asked to pay for tickets on the coaches, so that the party doesn't incur any cost for the coach, and all the passengers happen to receive personal gifts from a very generous individual who lives in Thailand - would that count as an election expense then?
He just had poor judgement - this wasn’t a one time error
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterloo_railway_station_(Merseyside)
I suppose if Burnham took over, sacked her, then crashes and burns in a Truss style debt crisis she might just be in with a sniff, but if that happened I would have thought it would be more likely the PLP handed the job to Streeting with RR back as CofE.
Heath then won the first ever Election for the Tory leadership beating Reginald Maudling and Enoch Powell
So it was a slightly different dynamic compared to the one we are currently experiencing
On the second, I don’t know for sure but would guess the party declares the net cost, if any
https://x.com/Anna_Soubry/status/2054976587402002487
https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/2055362765704065048
Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin
Robert Jenrick
@RobertJenrick
·
33m
I am looking to hire a chief economic advisor.
https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2055361563846926585
There are some truly absurd odds for next PM, particularly given what's happened in the last day and a bit.
I don't suppose it really matters what odds someone gets for Rupert Lowe or Oliver Dowden to be next PM. They're both absurdities.
Only in the South Is Burnham unpopular, so Burnham's leadership of Labour would likely be less of a worry for Kemi and Davey than it would be for Farage, Swinney and Polanski and ap Iorwerth
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RQDEi_ffTK0
It was noted as a driver of Plaid support in Caerphilly.
Anyone, point is that the worst that happens is that a few election agents are sacrificed to the courts, but if the money makes a difference and the election is won as a result no British court is daring to unseat the Prime Minister over it.
"Based on recent data through 2024–2025, the UK population has been increasing at a faster percentage rate than the USA, driven almost entirely by high net international migration rather than natural change. While both countries have shown similar long-term growth trends since 2006, the UK's recent annual growth rates (e.g., 1.0% in 2023) have outpaced the US"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/16/are-our-elections-being-stolen-police-forces-claims-mps
I think the Tories got a fine in the end.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=US&utm_source=chatgpt.com
According to the World Bank, US GDP growth was 2.9% in 2023
Seems at least a distinct possibility that Burnham becomes PM and ends up completely wrecking his image and his favourability with voters simply because incumbents in the current climate get it in the neck from angry voters. And he will be dealing with the Iran War economic hit which is going to be massive if it doesn't get sorted in next month.
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
@DPJHodges
·
47m
Reform supporters getting a little angry. Not sure why. Journalists were briefed today Reform had 50 activists out in Makerfield. I think that was a complete lie. But I’m happy to be proved wrong if someone will provide evidence.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2055363629696811200
I doubt Anna Soubry has been right ever in her entire political career.
You are a valued PB commenter because, despite your obvious and often admirable loyalty to the Blue Cause, you give sharp eyed and objective analyses of the facts,. You admit when things are shit
Or you DID
A Burnham win by 3000 votes would not be "devastating" for Farage. Are you on ketamine? It would be a close fought campaign in a - let us not forget - tradtionally VERY SOLID Labour seat where the victor is the single most charismatic Labour politician around, and also a successful local mayor, and it would have been won partly as a vote AGAINST a loathed Labour Prime Minister
It would mean almost nothing for the wider national context, it would be unique, in so many ways
All of you, get a fucking grip. It's a mass pyschosis
"Burnham has still got to go to Makerfield and get a result, and I would love it if Reform beat him."
Why am I reminded of the giant inflatable Bozo that was paraded around Hartlepool?
If it works.
Whether our next PM, whoever that is, is able to use their opportunity wisely and well to do some painful stuff to achieve some good stuff remains to be seen.
Any Burnham win will be portrayed as Farage losing, but if Reform win labour are facing an existential crises
The stakes couldn't be higher
Makerfield is only the 29th Reform target seat, if Farage can't even beat Labour there, Reform won't even get 50 seats at the next general election if Burnham replaces Starmer as PM! Then you are back to Kemi is our only hope to beat Labour
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/15/no-10-refuses-release-mandelson-vetting-files/
https://www.theguardian.com/books/ng-interactive/2026/may/12/the-100-best-novels-of-all-time
Oh, I like that...
There's a very real possibility he becomes Labour's Liz Truss, mortgage rates spike and public opinion sours on him very quickly. Just the fear of him becoming PM has sent our debt yields to the highest in the G7 once again.
It depresses me a bit to think how short life is in relation to the number of books one could read.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/america-first-in-action-u-s-records-net-negative-migration-across-every-metro-area/
At last he is on board
The way I see it, this by-election is nearly all downside risk for Labour. I am trying to be objective, but that is what I see
To explain: if Burnham wins - unless he wins massively (highly unlikely) - that's a nice boost for the party, but it will soon be overwhelmed by the grisly reality of the leadership struggle (will Starmer go quietly? Will the Labour right meekly submit?) followed by the blood letting of reshuffles. And then the reality of trying to improve Britain in the midst of all the headwinds
Will a loss be a blow for Farage? Yes, but pretty modest, unless they are idiots. It can be portrayed as a vote against the Labour prime minister, with a very unusual and prominent Labour candidate, on his home turf, etc etc. It means almost nothing for the other 650 seats in the Commons
However, if even Andy Burnham cannot win, against Reform, in a traditionally Labour constituency, in his home town, where he is a popular Labour mayor - well, then Labour really are existentially fucked. And then they still have Starmer in power...
Didn't help me past 8 in total, mind.
Kemi could also say that if Reform can't even win their 29th target seat then only the Tories can beat Labour, as usual
Losing Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton weren't crushing blows for Reform.