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Labour are the favourites to win the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Meta and X do publish location aiui which is what the BBC used to trace the accounts, although the article also notes that some are set up in Britain and then sold. As for identity verification, would that apply to pb too? It is probably coming because legislators hate privacy (except their own) and opponents are child molesting terrorists. I gather even iphones now require it although I am too poor to own one to confirm this.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    You are the Tory party. How do you play this by election? Play to win* or play to meh?

    They got over 4000 votes last time.

    This seems important.

    *Not literally, obviously. But trying to maximise vote.


    Bonus question - does the answer change if you are Kemi?

    Got to go for it and try to increase the miserable 4,000 votes for two reasons. First, it might cost the Fukkers victory and even though Olukemi likes Fukker policies more than her own tory policies anything that dents Fukker ascendency is good for the tories. Second, if the tories go backwards here on top of the locals then the narrative that the Badenoch Project is bleeding out at our feet is reinforced.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    Ironically, the same complaint Labour members have about Starmer.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,116
    The surest sign that Andy Bur

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    And an Evertonian who became an enthusiast for Manchester.

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    And an Evertonian who became an enthusiast for Manchester.
    You guys really need to improve on your critiques of Burnham ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Dura_Ace said:

    You are the Tory party. How do you play this by election? Play to win* or play to meh?

    They got over 4000 votes last time.

    This seems important.

    *Not literally, obviously. But trying to maximise vote.


    Bonus question - does the answer change if you are Kemi?

    Got to go for it and try to increase the miserable 4,000 votes for two reasons. First, it might cost the Fukkers victory and even though Olukemi likes Fukker policies more than her own tory policies anything that dents Fukker ascendency is good for the tories. Second, if the tories go backwards here on top of the locals then the narrative that the Badenoch Project is bleeding out at our feet is reinforced.
    The Conservatives would be doing well to reach four figures, in this by-election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,128
    Heathener said:

    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

    Hello Heathener. Good to see you again. What was it that put you off Starmer? I ask because I'm not sure why I have. Sometimes he just seems a little out of his depth which I don't mind and at others he seems like a nasty piece of work.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Have you done many railways outside of Britain?

    It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
    @LostPassword
    Not too many sadly.

    Done Eurotunnel to Paris, and Brussels
    Brussels to Amsterdam
    Part of Paris Metro
    Part of Brussels Metro
    Ostend to Brussels
    Part of Amsterdam Metro and some trams
    Part of Berlin U-Bahn and S-Bahn and some trams
    Part of Vienna U-Bahn and some trams
    Rome Airport to Termini station
    Part of Rome Metro and some trams
    Part of Barcelona Metro and some trams
    Pisa to Florence
    Some trams in Geneva
    Geneva Airport to Geneva
    Geneva to Montreux
    Zurich Airport to Zurich
    Zurich to Chur

    Stateside:
    New Mexico Rail Runner (Albuquerque to Santa Fe)
    Denver's Light Rail (entire as of 2011 - vastly expanded since!)

    Railways in India:
    Mangalore to Chennai plus one local route in Chennai
    Shoranur to Trivandrum
    Kochin Metro (entire)
    I recommend Colombo to Badulla.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    edited May 15

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Have you done many railways outside of Britain?

    It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
    @LostPassword
    Not too many sadly.

    Done Eurotunnel to Paris, and Brussels
    Brussels to Amsterdam
    Part of Paris Metro
    Part of Brussels Metro
    Ostend to Brussels
    Part of Amsterdam Metro and some trams
    Part of Berlin U-Bahn and S-Bahn and some trams
    Part of Vienna U-Bahn and some trams
    Rome Airport to Termini station
    Part of Rome Metro and some trams
    Part of Barcelona Metro and some trams
    Pisa to Florence
    Some trams in Geneva
    Geneva Airport to Geneva
    Geneva to Montreux
    Zurich Airport to Zurich
    Zurich to Chur

    Stateside:
    New Mexico Rail Runner (Albuquerque to Santa Fe)
    Denver's Light Rail (entire as of 2011 - vastly expanded since!)

    Railways in India:
    Mangalore to Chennai plus one local route in Chennai
    Shoranur to Trivandrum
    Kochin Metro (entire)
    Try Chicago to Dallas. You really do get an appreciation for the size of the States that’s very hard to get any other way and an understanding of how lucky they are to have all that low density land.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Have you done many railways outside of Britain?

    It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
    @LostPassword
    Not too many sadly.

    Done Eurotunnel to Paris, and Brussels
    Brussels to Amsterdam
    Part of Paris Metro
    Part of Brussels Metro
    Ostend to Brussels
    Part of Amsterdam Metro and some trams
    Part of Berlin U-Bahn and S-Bahn and some trams
    Part of Vienna U-Bahn and some trams
    Rome Airport to Termini station
    Part of Rome Metro and some trams
    Part of Barcelona Metro and some trams
    Pisa to Florence
    Some trams in Geneva
    Geneva Airport to Geneva
    Geneva to Montreux
    Zurich Airport to Zurich
    Zurich to Chur

    Stateside:
    New Mexico Rail Runner (Albuquerque to Santa Fe)
    Denver's Light Rail (entire as of 2011 - vastly expanded since!)

    Railways in India:
    Mangalore to Chennai plus one local route in Chennai
    Shoranur to Trivandrum
    Kochin Metro (entire)
    I recommend Colombo to Badulla.
    I recommend lying in the bath watching YouTube videos of train journeys on your phone. It works out cheaper even after the replacement costs of phones dropped in the water, and some of them have Michael Portillo.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,297
    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Have you met Ofcom? They couldn’t require a fart in a bathtub.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    By-election forecast: Reform and Labour will accuse each other of breaking spending limits.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,032
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

    Hello Heathener. Good to see you again. What was it that put you off Starmer? I ask because I'm not sure why I have. Sometimes he just seems a little out of his depth which I don't mind and at others he seems like a nasty piece of work.
    Starmer has to deal with the world as it is, not the world that left wing voters want it to be.

    And, he gets excoriated for it, like every other Labour Prime Minister.
    Growth is good. Starmer is just a dork who cannot communicate or lead.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    Foss said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Have you done many railways outside of Britain?

    It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
    @LostPassword
    Not too many sadly.

    Done Eurotunnel to Paris, and Brussels
    Brussels to Amsterdam
    Part of Paris Metro
    Part of Brussels Metro
    Ostend to Brussels
    Part of Amsterdam Metro and some trams
    Part of Berlin U-Bahn and S-Bahn and some trams
    Part of Vienna U-Bahn and some trams
    Rome Airport to Termini station
    Part of Rome Metro and some trams
    Part of Barcelona Metro and some trams
    Pisa to Florence
    Some trams in Geneva
    Geneva Airport to Geneva
    Geneva to Montreux
    Zurich Airport to Zurich
    Zurich to Chur

    Stateside:
    New Mexico Rail Runner (Albuquerque to Santa Fe)
    Denver's Light Rail (entire as of 2011 - vastly expanded since!)

    Railways in India:
    Mangalore to Chennai plus one local route in Chennai
    Shoranur to Trivandrum
    Kochin Metro (entire)
    Try Chicago to Dallas. You really do get an appreciation for the size of the States that’s very hard to get any other way and an understanding of how lucky they are to have all that low density land.
    That or you can read the terms on American Express cards and realise it's all set up for people flying from one state to another three times a week.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Have you met Ofcom? They couldn’t require a fart in a bathtub.
    The reason this hasn’t been done is political rather than bureaucratic though. Should just happen.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,989
    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Firstly this wouldn't do much about racism because plenty of people are doing it under known identities including the site owner. Secondly the adversary would work around it by using hacked or sold accounts. Thirdly it would have a chilling effect on anyone trying to criticize a bad government or their boss or anyone who might have power over them.

    Just log off Twitter.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,244
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
    Anti-FPTP social media accounts traced to the Isle of Wight
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,864
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    If you are shameless enough to get away with it ('sincerity is so important... if you can fake that, you've got it made'), having very few principles probably makes for more effective government. More space to respond to events.

    One of Starmer's problems has been an inability to be shameless. Hence sticking to red lines and the tortured legalese that just annoys people.

    Maybe starmerism (soft left incremental improvements) with more panache than Starmer can muster will be just the job. Otherwise, what exactly is the plan that placates the voters and the bond markets?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox in Makerfield on ITV news 2 votes for Burnham, 1 against

    That's a landslide 67% v 33%.

    Of course... What is it they say about small datasets?
    In 2024 FPTP gave a landslide to 33.7%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
    Sure, but you can do a lot with that kind of majority.
    Yes. But they were a team that started the match with most of the stadium against them
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,864
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

    Hello Heathener. Good to see you again. What was it that put you off Starmer? I ask because I'm not sure why I have. Sometimes he just seems a little out of his depth which I don't mind and at others he seems like a nasty piece of work.
    Starmer has to deal with the world as it is, not the world that left wing voters want it to be.

    And, he gets excoriated for it, like every other Labour Prime Minister.
    Same's increasingly true on the right.

    Pragmatism of the 'world as it is/we have work to do' sort is out of fashion everywhere. In part because pragmatism now requires all of us to make sacrifices of one sort or the other.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428
    Heathener said:

    Barnesian said:

    What I expect from Burnham:
    * more nationalisation of strategic services such as water and railways
    * removal of red lines on single market and customs union
    * PR in the next Labour manifesto

    What I expect from Rayner:
    * focus on workers rights
    * more tax on big companies to subsidise poorer people

    What I expect from Streeting:
    * more privatisation of the NHS following the Mandelson/Palantir agenda

    This is why I am very pro Burnham, neutral on Rayner and anti Streeting.

    Wes Streeting is the most odious little rat I think I've ever seen in British politics, which is saying something. A person utterly devoid of principles who would push anyone under a train to further his own ends.

    I'm still seething with anger at this "Labour" Government for whom I so mistakenly and bitterly voted.
    You did claim at the time to be a tactical voter; you just ignored all the sensible advice you got as to who was on to win in your own local area
  • A Labour Win in Makerfield must be the same locked on certainty as Copeland was in 2017

    Really If these Labour people weren't so stupid they would be dangerous.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,436

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    If you are shameless enough to get away with it ('sincerity is so important... if you can fake that, you've got it made'), having very few principles probably makes for more effective government. More space to respond to events.

    One of Starmer's problems has been an inability to be shameless. Hence sticking to red lines and the tortured legalese that just annoys people.

    Maybe starmerism (soft left incremental improvements) with more panache than Starmer can muster will be just the job. Otherwise, what exactly is the plan that placates the voters and the bond markets?
    I just want some adminstrative competence. Have a plan, tell us what it is, execute on it, don't do dumb things and then u-turn on them every five minutes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,137

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    And an Evertonian who became an enthusiast for Manchester.
    Good morning

    Maybe the most important unifying fact is they are all very anti Liverpool
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523
    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    speak to BBC Breakfast, Reed is asked whether he expects there to be a leadership challenge. He says he does not.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

    Hello Heathener. Good to see you again. What was it that put you off Starmer? I ask because I'm not sure why I have. Sometimes he just seems a little out of his depth which I don't mind and at others he seems like a nasty piece of work.
    Starmer has to deal with the world as it is, not the world that left wing voters want it to be.

    And, he gets excoriated for it, like every other Labour Prime Minister.
    Same's increasingly true on the right.

    Pragmatism of the 'world as it is/we have work to do' sort is out of fashion everywhere. In part because pragmatism now requires all of us to make sacrifices of one sort or the other.
    We can also choose who we listen to on social media nowadays. In the past our opinions may have been shaped by those we read in newspapers, journals, from tv or radio who would be quite a diverse bunch of experts and well informed.

    Now, if we want to believe we can just spend more money with MMT or fix the boats with Rwanda or whatever, it is trivial to find people claiming to be experts (often just obsessives rather than experts) and we can listen only to them, and assume the government aren't doing it because they are thick or malevolent, rather than question the practicality of what we want.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,137
    edited May 15

    speak to BBC Breakfast, Reed is asked whether he expects there to be a leadership challenge. He says he does not.

    Coronation then or just in denial

    Reported 235 labour mps want Starmer to resign
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,032

    A Labour Win in Makerfield must be the same locked on certainty as Copeland was in 2017

    Really If these Labour people weren't so stupid they would be dangerous.

    What does this even mean?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,865
    Let's get on with it. The Government should move the writ for the Makerfield by election as soon as possible.

    The by election can get done by the end of the Parliamentary session in July.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,208
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    The evidence says otherwise regarding your latter comment. When Corbyn was the coming thing, he unsuccessfully stood against him for leader in 2015, and stood down in 2017 in order to become GM Mayor.

    The fact that he like quite a few have cooled on Blairism is not disputed, that is fine by me.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,137

    Let's get on with it. The Government should move the writ for the Makerfield by election as soon as possible.

    The by election can get done by the end of the Parliamentary session in July.

    Agreed
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951

    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?

    It will be a thing for sure but outweighed by those who 1) want Starmer removed pronto 2) like Burnham 3) fancy having a PM in their constituency
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523

    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?

    It will be a thing for sure but outweighed by those who 1) want Starmer removed pronto 2) like Burnham 3) fancy having a PM in their constituency
    Shame. I would love to see Burnham lose. Mostly because I don't like these deals that make a mockery of our electoral system.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    They were shedding support in the polls even before the day of the election.

    GE2024 felt like 650 by-elections.
    The general election campaign was a disaster for Labour. If they'd had an averagely competent campaign the Tories would have finished third, behind the Lib Dems, and Labour's vote share would have been closer to 40% than 33%.

    That's Labour lost the election campaign, but still won a landslide majority, is a measure of how far behind the Tories started the campaign, of the winner's bonus from FPTP, and the source of post-election dissonance.
    A precondition of a competent campaign is having some idea of what you hope to do if elected
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951

    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?

    It will be a thing for sure but outweighed by those who 1) want Starmer removed pronto 2) like Burnham 3) fancy having a PM in their constituency
    Shame. I would love to see Burnham lose. Mostly because I don't like these deals that make a mockery of our electoral system.
    I wish I could feel the same but our electoral system is not worthy of such principled support imo - it doesn't seem to be working.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    NEW THREAD

  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Firstly this wouldn't do much about racism because plenty of people are doing it under known identities including the site owner. Secondly the adversary would work around it by using hacked or sold accounts. Thirdly it would have a chilling effect on anyone trying to criticize a bad government or their boss or anyone who might have power over them.

    Just log off Twitter.
    That’s ridiculously defeatist. It would remove large amounts of slop, and stop social media from falsely influencing narratives from anonymous accounts.

    As to the chilling effect, in the UK? Nonsense. And in countries with dictatorships these platforms are already firewalled and censored.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,764
    edited May 15
    Doctor Who international distribution rights

    AMC+ (a US-only streamer) has obtained the rights to stream Doctor Who (2005-2022). So that's Nine (Ecclestone) to Thirteen (Whittaker). Doctor Who (2023-2025) remains with Disney+. This is good in the sense that US people can still watch the show in the US, bad in the sense that the rights are now fragmented, thus:
    • Doctor Who (1963-1989): ?
    • Doctor Who (1995-1995): ?
    • Doctor Who (2005-2022): AMC+, US-only
    • Doctor Who (2023-2025): Disney+, worldwide ex UK
    • Doctor Who (2026-????): to be determined
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs9ZqoqTqB0

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

    Hello Heathener. Good to see you again. What was it that put you off Starmer? I ask because I'm not sure why I have. Sometimes he just seems a little out of his depth which I don't mind and at others he seems like a nasty piece of work.
    Starmer has to deal with the world as it is, not the world that left wing voters want it to be.

    And, he gets excoriated for it, like every other Labour Prime Minister.
    Same's increasingly true on the right.

    Pragmatism of the 'world as it is/we have work to do' sort is out of fashion everywhere. In part because pragmatism now requires all of us to make sacrifices of one sort or the other.
    That is true as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?

    That is easily the best line for Reform to take.

    This is a needless by-election, called to satisfy one man’s ego.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    I wonder how many people would vote against Burnham on principle because they don't like the way their constituency is being used as a stepping stone for his ambition? Less than 2 years ago they voted for an MP presumably because they had some affitity for him. For him to walk away after promising to represent them for the next 5 years just to satisfy internal Labour party politics would surely piss off at least some of those voters?

    That is easily the best line for Reform to take.

    This is a needless by-election, called to satisfy one man’s ego.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    rcs1000 said:

    We've now got a public row between Farage and Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2055011762802667721

    Farage is lying

    Fortunately Elon is the very model of honesty and probity.

    Serial liar calls serial liar a liar.

    Tough call.
  • edited May 15

    A Labour Win in Makerfield must be the same locked on certainty as Copeland was in 2017

    Really If these Labour people weren't so stupid they would be dangerous.

    What does this even mean?
    It means that if Burnham had 1% of the intelligence he thinks he has he would have picked a seat that he could win. He could be struggling to come third.

    Belatedly Starmer's puppet masters have taken it out of his hands, let Burnham stand and lose. Yes, that IS what they should have done last time but this time the Burnham failure will be too late to save Starmer and his intellectual right hand man, Steve Reed.

    The only person who can stop Burnham losing this by-election is Farage himself and I have no doubt he will try.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    A Labour Win in Makerfield must be the same locked on certainty as Copeland was in 2017

    Really If these Labour people weren't so stupid they would be dangerous.

    What does this even mean?
    It means that if Burnham had 1% of the intelligence he thinks he has he would have picked a seat that he could win. He could be struggling to come third.

    Belatedly Starmer's puppet masters have taken it out of his hands, let Burnham stand and lose. Yes, that IS what they should have done last time but this time the Burnham failure will be too late to save Starmer and his intellectual right hand man, Steve Reed.

    The only person who can stop Burnham losing this by-election is Farage himself and I have no doubt he will try.
    Or on the other point of view if Burnham can win this by election polls suggest will go Reform, he can present himself as the saviour Labour need to beat Farage
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    HYUFD said:

    A Labour Win in Makerfield must be the same locked on certainty as Copeland was in 2017

    Really If these Labour people weren't so stupid they would be dangerous.

    What does this even mean?
    It means that if Burnham had 1% of the intelligence he thinks he has he would have picked a seat that he could win. He could be struggling to come third.

    Belatedly Starmer's puppet masters have taken it out of his hands, let Burnham stand and lose. Yes, that IS what they should have done last time but this time the Burnham failure will be too late to save Starmer and his intellectual right hand man, Steve Reed.

    The only person who can stop Burnham losing this by-election is Farage himself and I have no doubt he will try.
    Or on the other point of view if Burnham can win this by election polls suggest will go Reform, he can present himself as the saviour Labour need to beat Farage
    That’s exactly the message I think. And fair dos it does show some courage from Burnham.

    I’ve never been particularly impressed with him - too chippy - but I’ve come across enough people on the left in the last 24 hours who do seem to think he’s the messiah that I think he probably would enjoy a decent honeymoon.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    MelonB said:

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
    Meta and X do publish location aiui which is what the BBC used to trace the accounts, although the article also notes that some are set up in Britain and then sold. As for identity verification, would that apply to pb too? It is probably coming because legislators hate privacy (except their own) and opponents are child molesting terrorists. I gather even iphones now require it although I am too poor to own one to confirm this.
    You’re telling me that there is a market for my PB ID? Can I start the bidding at £1000?
This discussion has been closed.