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Labour are the favourites to win the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • MartinVegasMartinVegas Posts: 62
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Two issues here. One major one minor.
    Neither of those stations are in Makerfield.
    Of far, far more import.
    I'm assuming you went to Poole's. And BOUGHT A PASTY!!!!
    They must have known you were a stranger.
    Poole's was never any good anyway. Galloway's are much better.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 14
    Yougov May favourable ratings out today have Burnham polling best of Labour leadership contenders across the board with Labour, Reform, Tory, LD and Green voters.

    Of the other contenders, Rayner does best with Labour and Green voters, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper do best with LDs, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood best with Tory and Reform voters

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov May favourable ratings out today have Burnham polling best of Labour leadership contenders across the board with Labour, Reform, Tory, LD and Green voters.

    Of the other contenders, Rayner does best with Labour and Green voters, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper do best with LDs, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood best with Tory and Reform voters

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026

    "polls best" surely is "least disliked" out of that list?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,257

    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.

    What's the premise?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Two issues here. One major one minor.
    Neither of those stations are in Makerfield.
    Of far, far more import.
    I'm assuming you went to Poole's. And BOUGHT A PASTY!!!!
    They must have known you were a stranger.
    Poole's was never any good anyway. Galloway's are much better.

    Indeed.
    Do they have many in the States?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2055040369918615688

    Seen and heard enough already. Makerfield victory for Labour = Burnham coronation
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov May favourable ratings out today have Burnham polling best of Labour leadership contenders across the board with Labour, Reform, Tory, LD and Green voters.

    Of the other contenders, Rayner does best with Labour and Green voters, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper do best with LDs, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood best with Tory and Reform voters

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026

    "polls best" surely is "least disliked" out of that list?
    Only politician with net favourability. +4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 14

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I went back to the post-election polling for Gorton & Denton and applied the "Burnham effect" to Makerfield

    It suggests a result closer to:

    🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
    ➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
    🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)

    +/- vs. GE2024
    If the constituency voted today'

    https://x.com/JoshHousden/status/2054971152586457156?s=20

    How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
    There is from the Burnham bounce seen in polls, if Burnham wins this by election I think he likely beats Reform at the next general election, so not great for Farage. Nor Polanski as polling shows he does much better with Green voters than Starmer is. Not great for Kemi either as she has benefited too the last few weeks from Starmer's unpopularity relative to her but polls have Burnham significantly more popular than Kemi
    It is simply too early to say HYUFD. We can’t predict any of this so far out.
    We can, the polling suggests Burnham could get as big a bounce as Boris did in 2019 or Major did in 1990 and both went on to win the following general election
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,093
    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox in Makerfield on ITV news 2 votes for Burnham, 1 against

    Left wing news finds what it wants.

    Shocker
  • MartinVegasMartinVegas Posts: 62
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Two issues here. One major one minor.
    Neither of those stations are in Makerfield.
    Of far, far more import.
    I'm assuming you went to Poole's. And BOUGHT A PASTY!!!!
    They must have known you were a stranger.
    Poole's was never any good anyway. Galloway's are much better.

    Indeed.
    Do they have many in the States?
    Mate, over here a pie is a bloody pizza or at best has fruit in it. And don't talk to me about those abominations called 'pot pies'.

    We have a great place called the Cornish Pasty Company that does a good job with pasties though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    230 Labour MPs now want Starmer to go, according to the ipaper.

    https://x.com/eleanormia/status/2054860315641118908
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,119
    edited May 14
    Burnham will come in on a backdrop of the public expecting him to be so poor if he’s even 10% better than Starmer at not stepping on rakes he’ll get a bounce.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov May favourable ratings out today have Burnham polling best of Labour leadership contenders across the board with Labour, Reform, Tory, LD and Green voters.

    Of the other contenders, Rayner does best with Labour and Green voters, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper do best with LDs, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood best with Tory and Reform voters

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026

    "polls best" surely is "least disliked" out of that list?
    Only politician with net favourability. +4.
    Not being in Parliament is popular!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov May favourable ratings out today have Burnham polling best of Labour leadership contenders across the board with Labour, Reform, Tory, LD and Green voters.

    Of the other contenders, Rayner does best with Labour and Green voters, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper do best with LDs, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood best with Tory and Reform voters

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026

    "polls best" surely is "least disliked" out of that list?
    Burnham is viewed net positively by Labour, Green and LD voters, even 20-30% of Tory and Reform voters have a positive view of him
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,127
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I went back to the post-election polling for Gorton & Denton and applied the "Burnham effect" to Makerfield

    It suggests a result closer to:

    🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
    ➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
    🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)

    +/- vs. GE2024
    If the constituency voted today'

    https://x.com/JoshHousden/status/2054971152586457156?s=20

    How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
    There is from the Burnham bounce seen in polls, if Burnham wins this by election I think he likely beats Reform at the next general election, so not great for Farage. Nor Polanski as polling shows he does much better with Green voters than Starmer is. Not great for Kemi either as she has benefited too the last few weeks from Starmer's unpopularity relative to her but polls have Burnham significantly more popular than Kemi
    You simply cannot project a poll today to what happens over the next 3 years, and not least because Burnham could be PM by August and face the most extraordinary political choices
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    GIN1138 said:

    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.

    What's the premise?
    https://everymanplayhouse.com/event/the-assassination-of-margaret-thatcher/

    In August 1983, Thatcher had a cataract operation in Windsor. The author of the short story saw her leaving at the end of her stay and wondered 'if there was a gunman in here with me now, they could pop her off'.

    So she ran with it and wrote a short story in 2014. The Everyman adopted it into a production and are showing it now.

    The resident of the flat is at home when a gunman comes in, pretending to be a plumber; a thirty minute discussion about whether this is a good idea or not endures as the resident tries to dissuade him from assassinating Thatcher.

    Unfortunately her efforts are in vain and the title is correct. It doesn't deal with the aftermath at all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,257

    GIN1138 said:

    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.

    What's the premise?
    https://everymanplayhouse.com/event/the-assassination-of-margaret-thatcher/

    In August 1983, Thatcher had a cataract operation in Windsor. The author of the short story saw her leaving at the end of her stay and wondered 'if there was a gunman in here with me now, they could pop her off'.

    So she ran with it and wrote a short story in 2014. The Everyman adopted it into a production and are showing it now.

    The resident of the flat is at home when a gunman comes in, pretending to be a plumber; a thirty minute discussion about whether this is a good idea or not endures as the resident tries to dissuade him from assassinating Thatcher.

    Unfortunately her efforts are in vain and the title is correct. It doesn't deal with the aftermath at all.
    A leftie fantasy about someone murdering Margaret Thatcher?

    Think I'll give it a swerve...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    dixiedean said:

    To clear up the is Burnham from Makerfield question.
    Makerfield was a forest mentioned in the Domesday book.

    "An area of this size would have encompassed most of the land bordered by present-day Warrington, Wigan, and Leigh boroughs. When Makerfield was referred to it could have been anywhere within this woodland area."
    Newton-le-willows used to be Newton-in-Makerfield.

    So. He grew up, went to school and lives in the area of Makerfield.
    If not necessarily the constituency itself.

    Honestly, I think Burnham will win, even though national polling would suggest any other Labour candidate would lose.
    Local candidate - check (let's be honest here)
    High profile candidate - check
    Candidate likely to be Prime Minister afterwards and the prestige that comes with this - check
    Opposition will be split many ways (you'll have every man and his dog run in the seat, this will take votes away from Reform/the others as Lord Buckethead gets 109 votes) - check

    Burnham will win the seat.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.

    What's the premise?
    https://everymanplayhouse.com/event/the-assassination-of-margaret-thatcher/

    In August 1983, Thatcher had a cataract operation in Windsor. The author of the short story saw her leaving at the end of her stay and wondered 'if there was a gunman in here with me now, they could pop her off'.

    So she ran with it and wrote a short story in 2014. The Everyman adopted it into a production and are showing it now.

    The resident of the flat is at home when a gunman comes in, pretending to be a plumber; a thirty minute discussion about whether this is a good idea or not endures as the resident tries to dissuade him from assassinating Thatcher.

    Unfortunately her efforts are in vain and the title is correct. It doesn't deal with the aftermath at all.
    A leftie fantasy about someone murdering Margaret Thatcher?

    Think I'll give it a swerve...
    Hence why it was run in Liverpool. Don't think it would get such a good reaction as the audience tonight gave it in any other city......(!)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I went back to the post-election polling for Gorton & Denton and applied the "Burnham effect" to Makerfield

    It suggests a result closer to:

    🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
    ➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
    🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)

    +/- vs. GE2024
    If the constituency voted today'

    https://x.com/JoshHousden/status/2054971152586457156?s=20

    How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
    There is from the Burnham bounce seen in polls, if Burnham wins this by election I think he likely beats Reform at the next general election, so not great for Farage. Nor Polanski as polling shows he does much better with Green voters than Starmer is. Not great for Kemi either as she has benefited too the last few weeks from Starmer's unpopularity relative to her but polls have Burnham significantly more popular than Kemi
    You simply cannot project a poll today to what happens over the next 3 years, and not least because Burnham could be PM by August and face the most extraordinary political choices
    Polls in 1990 showed a Major led Tories leading Kinnock when Thatcher trailed him, they were right. Polls in 2019 showed a Boris led Tories leading Corbyn when May trailed him, they were right.

    Polls now show a Burnham led Labour leading Farage when Starmer trails him, they may be right as well
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just got back from seeing 'The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher' at the Liverpool Everyman.

    Wasn't disappointed.

    What's the premise?
    https://everymanplayhouse.com/event/the-assassination-of-margaret-thatcher/

    In August 1983, Thatcher had a cataract operation in Windsor. The author of the short story saw her leaving at the end of her stay and wondered 'if there was a gunman in here with me now, they could pop her off'.

    So she ran with it and wrote a short story in 2014. The Everyman adopted it into a production and are showing it now.

    The resident of the flat is at home when a gunman comes in, pretending to be a plumber; a thirty minute discussion about whether this is a good idea or not endures as the resident tries to dissuade him from assassinating Thatcher.

    Unfortunately her efforts are in vain and the title is correct. It doesn't deal with the aftermath at all.
    A leftie fantasy about someone murdering Margaret Thatcher?

    Think I'll give it a swerve...
    58 is surprisingly early for a cateract.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,489
    We need Matt Goodwin standing in the by-election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    MattW said:

    We need Matt Goodwin standing in the by-election.

    He’s ruled himself out

    https://x.com/goodwinmj/status/2055041427822805025
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,489
    carnforth said:

    MelonB said:

    Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).

    The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.

    As an outsider, my question is: are the soft left secret leftists who want to get into power and will be soft to do it, or a different tribe? See also: are centre right tories secret rightists who just want to get into power?
    I always treated the soft left as roughly Neil Kinnock.

    But everything has warped so much in recent years that former Tories are now the deranged, lunatic far left !

    So I have no idea. It is in the eye of the beholder.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,489

    MattW said:

    We need Matt Goodwin standing in the by-election.

    He’s ruled himself out

    https://x.com/goodwinmj/status/2055041427822805025
    Spoilsport. It would add much to the gaiety of the nation.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,453
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    MelonB said:

    Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).

    The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.

    As an outsider, my question is: are the soft left secret leftists who want to get into power and will be soft to do it, or a different tribe? See also: are centre right tories secret rightists who just want to get into power?
    I always treated the soft left as roughly Neil Kinnock.

    But everything has warped so much in recent years that former Tories are now the deranged, lunatic far left !

    So I have no idea. It is in the eye of the beholder.
    Seriously, "soft left" is a term that has no meaning from a real ideological POV. it just refers to the average vaguely egalitarian Labour member. Unless you are a proper leftist (who have self deported or been thrown out, largely) or you are a Blairite freak, you area "soft left".
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    MelonB said:

    Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).

    The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.

    As an outsider, my question is: are the soft left secret leftists who want to get into power and will be soft to do it, or a different tribe? See also: are centre right tories secret rightists who just want to get into power?
    I always treated the soft left as roughly Neil Kinnock.

    But everything has warped so much in recent years that former Tories are now the deranged, lunatic far left !

    So I have no idea. It is in the eye of the beholder.
    I suppose this is another way to ask it: do we all have dual political personalities? Our moderate side and our radical side? Are centrist politicians simply better at self-censorship? Or can one be genuinely soft left or soft right? I hope such people exist, but I can't claim to be one.
  • Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,257

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Oh?
  • Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    An unbelievable detail in this case: the police handcuffed the dying victim of a stabbing because the assailant accused him of racism.

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15818111/Sikh-man-stabbed-18-year-old-university-student-death-eight-inch-ceremonial-knife-claiming-hed-racially-abused-court-hears.html

    After he was stabbed Mr Nowak tried to climb a fence to escape but Digwa was 'aggressively pursuing' him, leaving a trail of blood, the court heard.

    Police were called to the scene but arrested Mr Nowak after Digwa claimed he had been racially
    abused.

    Mr Nowak was then handcuffed before passing out and dying in the street a short time later.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    edited May 14

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    They did that with Brown and it went down very badly

    They need a full process
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,119
    edited May 14
    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    They did that with Brown and it went down very badly

    They need a full process
    Did it go down badly? Brown famously got a honeymoon which he wasted by bottling the planned snap election.
  • Free advice Andy: shut down snap election discussion immediately if you don’t intend to call one.

    Second, kill off the unpopular stuff from Starmer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    If Burnham doesn't win the by-election, what does Starmer do?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,756
    edited May 14
    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox...

    Vox Pop. Vox Pop. Vox Pox is...something different

    :)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 15

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20

    A More in Common poll has also had a Burnham led Labour taking the lead with 30% to 28% for Reform, 18% for the Tories, 12% for the LDs and the Greens collapsing to a mere 6%

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/andy-burnham-keir-starmer-reform-uk-poll
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox in Makerfield on ITV news 2 votes for Burnham, 1 against

    That's a landslide 67% v 33%.

    Of course... What is it they say about small datasets?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    edited May 15
    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox in Makerfield on ITV news 2 votes for Burnham, 1 against

    That's a landslide 67% v 33%.

    Of course... What is it they say about small datasets?
    Small file size?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    We've now got a public row between Farage and Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2055011762802667721

    Farage is lying

    Fortunately Elon is the very model of honesty and probity.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 15
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
    Trouble is there's no evidence she's holding those seats.
    She lost 60% of Councillors outside London.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    rcs1000 said:

    We've now got a public row between Farage and Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2055011762802667721

    Farage is lying

    Fortunately Elon is the very model of honesty and probity.

    As is our Nige.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    I do like Vox Pox.
    Think it should become standard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 15
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
    Trouble is there's no evidence she's holding those seats.
    She lost 60% of Councillors outside London.
    Mostly in areas last up in 2021 or 2022 the Tories didn't win in 2024.

    Though the Tories did win Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Harlow and Hillingdon and most seats in Wandsworth and Enfield and tied most seats in Barnet, areas the Tories lost seats in 2024 at the general election
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,257
    edited May 15
    I post this with no comment (and I hope this won't get me banned, but I appreciate it IS very "provocative" for PB )

    Here's David Starkey speaking to the artist formally known as Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (Tommy Robinson)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJv__XnJOqs
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
    Trouble is there's no evidence she's holding those seats.
    She lost 60% of Councillors outside London.
    Mostly in areas last up in 2021 or 2022 the Tories didn't win in 2024.

    Though the Tories did win Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Harlow and most seats in Wandsworth or Barnet, areas the Tories lost in 2024.
    As I said. She's losing outside London.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,756
    rcs1000 said:

    We've now got a public row between Farage and Elon Musk.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2055011762802667721

    Farage is lying

    Fortunately Elon is the very model of honesty and probity.

    Known for it.

    Which is why there's a Mars launch later this year. Manned by AI-driven robots. I'm going to drive a Tesla Roadster from Dallas to Spaceport Texas and cheer it on surrounded by thousands of Muskrats standing on their Cybertruck tailgates as the last of the refuelling tankers and the Starship lander launch simultaneously to dock with the refuelling depot in orbit and mate with the orbiting stack to transfer to Mars via the Hohmann transfer orbit just before the window closes at the end of the year.

    Because that's what Elon said would happen last year. And Elon never lies

    (punches the wall)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 15
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
    Trouble is there's no evidence she's holding those seats.
    She lost 60% of Councillors outside London.
    Mostly in areas last up in 2021 or 2022 the Tories didn't win in 2024.

    Though the Tories did win Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Harlow and most seats in Wandsworth or Barnet, areas the Tories lost in 2024.
    As I said. She's losing outside London.
    Harlow isn't in London, nor is Fareham and Broxbourne, both Tory held councils, or Hampshire where the Tories won most seats
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,753

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.

    Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
    Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
    I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).

    Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
    Have you done many railways outside of Britain?

    It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
    @LostPassword
    Not too many sadly.

    Done Eurotunnel to Paris, and Brussels
    Brussels to Amsterdam
    Part of Paris Metro
    Part of Brussels Metro
    Ostend to Brussels
    Part of Amsterdam Metro and some trams
    Part of Berlin U-Bahn and S-Bahn and some trams
    Part of Vienna U-Bahn and some trams
    Rome Airport to Termini station
    Part of Rome Metro and some trams
    Part of Barcelona Metro and some trams
    Pisa to Florence
    Some trams in Geneva
    Geneva Airport to Geneva
    Geneva to Montreux
    Zurich Airport to Zurich
    Zurich to Chur

    Stateside:
    New Mexico Rail Runner (Albuquerque to Santa Fe)
    Denver's Light Rail (entire as of 2011 - vastly expanded since!)

    Railways in India:
    Mangalore to Chennai plus one local route in Chennai
    Shoranur to Trivandrum
    Kochin Metro (entire)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,753
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh


    “When compared with Burnham as PM, voters in The i Paper poll placed him on 12 per cent, compared with 23 per cent for Farage, 17 per cent for Badenoch and 16 per cent for Polanski”

    BMG/independent

    Yet on a forced choice Ipsos yesterday had Burnham as preferred PM to Farage with 46% to just 30% for Farage

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2054790826857734295?s=20
    Yes but the next election won't be a contest between just two parties. I think the Tories in particular will make a bit of a comeback over the next couple of years. Kemi is improving a lot.
    In most seats it will, Kemi's problem is while popular with Reform voters she isn't winning them back to the Tories and she isn't winning over many voters who voted Labour in 2024 either who if they have switched parties have gone Reform or Green mainly. While the LD vote in 2024 is also holding firm. So she is just left with the Tory core vote which now is even smaller than 2024, thus if she held the 2024 Tory seats with a few gains from Labour in London and the South she would be doing well
    Trouble is there's no evidence she's holding those seats.
    She lost 60% of Councillors outside London.
    Mostly in areas last up in 2021 or 2022 the Tories didn't win in 2024.

    Though the Tories did win Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Harlow and most seats in Wandsworth or Barnet, areas the Tories lost in 2024.
    As I said. She's losing outside London.
    Harlow isn't in London, nor is Fareham and Broxbourne, both Tory held councils, or Hampshire where the Tories won most seats
    If you consider them part of Kent, then Bexley and Bromley also held.

    If!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    If Burnham fails to win the by-election, I can't see Streeting deciding to end his challenge. He'll probably continue to attempt to replace Starmer as leader.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    If Burnham fails to win the by-election, I can't see Streeting deciding to end his challenge. He'll probably continue to attempt to replace Starmer as leader.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 265

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    Maybe they'll put it to the members, but it will take the form of a single question asking if they approve of Burnham as leader, with a big box to tick for yes votes, and a much smaller one for the neins, er, nos...
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 1,065
    edited May 15
    You are the Tory party. How do you play this by election? Play to win* or play to meh?

    They got over 4000 votes last time.

    This seems important.

    *Not literally, obviously. But trying to maximise vote.


    Bonus question - does the answer change if you are Kemi?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139

    You are the Tory party. How do you play this by election? Play to win* or play to meh?v

    They got over 4000 votes last time.

    This seems important.

    *Not literally, obviously. But trying to maximise vote.


    Bonus question - does the answer change if you are Kemi?

    You are the Tory party. How do you play this by election? Play to win* or play to meh?

    They got over 4000 votes last time.

    This seems important.

    *Not literally, obviously. But trying to maximise vote.


    Bonus question - does the answer change if you are Kemi?

    Max vote, you're taking votes off Reform not Burnham. Strategically a Burnham win is better for you
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    It’s a lovely evening here in Northumberland as well, and I’ve just had a whisky tasting with puddings at England’s only single malt distillery which is ALSO on the site* of England’s earliest Anglo-Saxon palace, Ad Gefrin, complete with museum, a summer palace dating from 550AD complete with timber theatre and church and pagan temple and mentioned by Bede in his History of the English People

    As you drink your whisky the walls turn into the colours of different seasons matching the mood of the booze

    Clever



    *actually about 3 miles away but hey

    I'm not sure being the only distillery on that site is a claim to fame - there would hardly be room for two.
    As I said, it’s “England’s only single malt distillery”. And apparently it is

    A nice drop, as well. Not immortal but rather drinkable
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_whisky_distilleries_in_England

    It’s a shame you don’t get out and about more.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    Burnham is 1.78 for the by election and 1.93 for being the next leader.

    Suggests he is a foregone conclusion to become PM if he can overcome the next hurdle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Something to order, from your by-election winnings:

    https://wightwhisky.com/products/pre-order-no-1-single-malt
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334

    James Murray is the new Health Secretary.

    James Murray.

    Wikipedia: MP for Ealing North since 2019. Deputy Mayor of London under Sadiq Khan. Chief Secretary to the Treasury until yesterday afternoon. Gay like Streeting. St Paul's School like George Osborne. Oxford PPE like pretty much all of them.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Murray_(London_politician)
    https://www.jamesmurray.org/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 15
    Ratters said:

    Burnham is 1.78 for the by election and 1.93 for being the next leader.

    Suggests he is a foregone conclusion to become PM if he can overcome the next hurdle.

    As I suggested yesterday, on the back of a by-election win, where the Labour Party machine pulled together to get him across the line, he’ll be a shoo-in, especially if the win is decisive as Bart is suggesting. There won’t be any appetite for a contest - Ange becomes deputy, Ed becomes Chancellor, and Wes can think himself lucky if he’s allowed to slink back to health to finish the job.

    Don’t underestimate the problem Reform - and probably the other parties too - now have in finding a decent, credible candidate for the highest profile by-election of all time.

    If Labour loses the next election, Wes might be in with a shot as next LOTO. But then, that election might not be under FPTP….
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334

    Free advice Andy: shut down snap election discussion immediately if you don’t intend to call one.

    Second, kill off the unpopular stuff from Starmer.

    Starmer is the unpopular stuff from Starmer.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334
    Andy_JS said:

    If Burnham fails to win the by-election, I can't see Streeting deciding to end his challenge. He'll probably continue to attempt to replace Starmer as leader.

    If Starmer has agreed to a coronation of Burnham, then it follows Starmer has agreed to step down, so Wes and anyone else can throw their hats into the ring if Burnham loses Makerfield.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 15

    Andy_JS said:

    If Burnham fails to win the by-election, I can't see Streeting deciding to end his challenge. He'll probably continue to attempt to replace Starmer as leader.

    If Starmer has agreed to a coronation of Burnham, then it follows Starmer has agreed to step down, so Wes and anyone else can throw their hats into the ring if Burnham loses Makerfield.
    Even Labour knows that an extended leadership contest and the accompanying internal punch up is sub optimal in a world heading towards economic crisis. If Burnham wins, he’s straight into the top job. If he loses, I wouldn’t put it past Starmer to stay on. After all, if Burnham - by polling the most popular alternative leader - can’t get elected, then it proves that Labour rather than Starmer is the fundamental source of unpopularity, and that switching leaders would be making the same mistake as the last lot.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,448
    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334
    'Don't swim' at 12 of 14 river bathing sites
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgzvqq9345o

    Not that our rivers are too polluted or anything. It's those animals. They go anywhere.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Good morning, everyone.

    A mix of very poor communication, the unnecessarily precious Ming vase nonsense, and backbench children who think governing doesn't mean trying to balance books but just fling around the unlimited free cash that's laying around, pausing only to whack up taxes for more spending.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,220
    ...

    It’s a lovely evening here in Northumberland as well, and I’ve just had a whisky tasting with puddings at England’s only single malt distillery which is ALSO on the site* of England’s earliest Anglo-Saxon palace, Ad Gefrin, complete with museum, a summer palace dating from 550AD complete with timber theatre and church and pagan temple and mentioned by Bede in his History of the English People

    As you drink your whisky the walls turn into the colours of different seasons matching the mood of the booze

    Clever



    *actually about 3 miles away but hey

    I'm not sure being the only distillery on that site is a claim to fame - there would hardly be room for two.
    As I said, it’s “England’s only single malt distillery”. And apparently it is

    A nice drop, as well. Not immortal but rather drinkable
    https://www.cooperkingdistillery.co.uk/blog/the-english-whisky-map
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,934
    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    ...

    It’s a lovely evening here in Northumberland as well, and I’ve just had a whisky tasting with puddings at England’s only single malt distillery which is ALSO on the site* of England’s earliest Anglo-Saxon palace, Ad Gefrin, complete with museum, a summer palace dating from 550AD complete with timber theatre and church and pagan temple and mentioned by Bede in his History of the English People

    As you drink your whisky the walls turn into the colours of different seasons matching the mood of the booze

    Clever



    *actually about 3 miles away but hey

    I'm not sure being the only distillery on that site is a claim to fame - there would hardly be room for two.
    As I said, it’s “England’s only single malt distillery”. And apparently it is

    A nice drop, as well. Not immortal but rather drinkable
    https://www.cooperkingdistillery.co.uk/blog/the-english-whisky-map
    There’s a very decent one in the Cotswolds
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Good morning, everyone.

    A mix of very poor communication, the unnecessarily precious Ming vase nonsense, and backbench children who think governing doesn't mean trying to balance books but just fling around the unlimited free cash that's laying around, pausing only to whack up taxes for more spending.
    The hype around Burnham reminds me of the hype around Sunak, at one stage.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Streeting seems to have gone from tomorrow’s man to yesterday’s man in less than 24 hours
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 15
    ..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,572

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I wouldn't be so sure.

    Name recognition is probably doing a lot of work for Burnham here, particularly since he's been Mayor of Manchester for a while and was around during Covid.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,572
    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    They were shedding support in the polls even before the day of the election.

    GE2024 felt like 650 by-elections.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,934
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quick Vox Pox in Makerfield on ITV news 2 votes for Burnham, 1 against

    That's a landslide 67% v 33%.

    Of course... What is it they say about small datasets?
    That they are informative if they come from a truly random sample…?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
    Sure, but you can do a lot with that kind of majority.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,116

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,959

    dixiedean said:

    To clear up the is Burnham from Makerfield question.
    Makerfield was a forest mentioned in the Domesday book.

    "An area of this size would have encompassed most of the land bordered by present-day Warrington, Wigan, and Leigh boroughs. When Makerfield was referred to it could have been anywhere within this woodland area."
    Newton-le-willows used to be Newton-in-Makerfield.

    So. He grew up, went to school and lives in the area of Makerfield.
    If not necessarily the constituency itself.

    Honestly, I think Burnham will win, even though national polling would suggest any other Labour candidate would lose.
    Local candidate - check (let's be honest here)
    High profile candidate - check
    Candidate likely to be Prime Minister afterwards and the prestige that comes with this - check
    Opposition will be split many ways (you'll have every man and his dog run in the seat, this will take votes away from Reform/the others as Lord Buckethead gets 109 votes) - check

    Burnham will win the seat.
    Would be bloody funny if he didn't
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,448
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    So what pronouncements can we expect from the Kim Jong Un of the North today?

    I do not understand why someone so plainly mediocre is being touted as the saviour of the nation.

    I think the Labour Party has gone mad.

    They won 411 seats, and then they fell to pieces, almost from the moment that they won the election.
    Those 411 seats were gifted them by our rotten voting system, on the back of the lowest ever winning (sic) vote share. The shoots of the subsequent collapse grew from their fundamental lack of popularity and legitimacy to begin with.
    Sure, but you can do a lot with that kind of majority.
    Instead we have just loaded U-turn after U-turn, upsetting both sides of every argument, a total failure to promote the positives we are achieving and indtilling a sense that the economy is doomed, all presided over by a PM who is not good at politics.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,116
    So my prediction.

    If he wins the by-election then somehow Labour will see sense and Andy Burnham will be PM. He'll steer the Party back to some roots and, critically, he'll shore up support in the north. He'll get a bounce and Labour will edge back towards the 30's % some of which may be at the expense of the Greens. Burnham will stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Gov't.

    If Labour select Andy Burnham they may even get a second term, either on their own or in coalition. And by the end of that Farage will be either too old or ...

    The voters of Makerfield hold in their hands the future direction of the UK.

  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    UK anti-immigration social media accounts traced to Sri Lanka and Vietnam

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyn30dp3o

    Hostile states but increasingly just people who have realised it is an easy way of making money.
    I don’t know why Ofcom can’t require all social media platforms to require identity verification for all accounts, and publish location.

    X is full of this shit. The racist stuff for a long time, but most recently some of the pro-Zack material too, and large chunks of pro and anti-Israel content.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,116
    Barnesian said:

    What I expect from Burnham:
    * more nationalisation of strategic services such as water and railways
    * removal of red lines on single market and customs union
    * PR in the next Labour manifesto

    What I expect from Rayner:
    * focus on workers rights
    * more tax on big companies to subsidise poorer people

    What I expect from Streeting:
    * more privatisation of the NHS following the Mandelson/Palantir agenda

    This is why I am very pro Burnham, neutral on Rayner and anti Streeting.

    Wes Streeting is the most odious little rat I think I've ever seen in British politics, which is saying something. A person utterly devoid of principles who would push anyone under a train to further his own ends.

    I'm still seething with anger at this "Labour" Government for whom I so mistakenly and bitterly voted.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,448
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    And an Evertonian who became an enthusiast for Manchester.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,116
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading now from multiple sources it’s going to be a Burnham coronation.

    I don’t think it will even go to the members.

    He hasn't been selected yet, let alone won a by election which hasn't been called. So hold your horses.

    However. It is fascinating the differing opinions those with connections to the NW and those outwith the area have about Andy Burnham.

    He's never off TV and radio phone ins locally.
    Let me say that I don’t like Burnham at all, I think he’s a weathervane and was a poor minister.

    However, the public clearly sees something I don’t see and so I am admitting defeat and jumping on the Burnham train.

    It would also be nice to have a PM not from the south. I say as a southerner.

    But I stand by what I said and I’ve bet on the outcome too. He will be the next PM and I suspect he will be coronated.
    I really like Andy Burnham and he's the ONLY reason that I would EVER consider voting Labour again. He's down to earth, speaks straight, has good northern roots with considerable talent in rugby league, football, and cricket. He sticks to his principles and he's soft Left. He doesn't dress like a Metropolitan pillock either.

    And I know a lot of people like me, including Conservative voters, who think the same about him. Someone I know, a pub owner in Manchester, tory-voter with a lot of money, really likes him, thinks he's done a fantastic job in the city, and desperately did not want to lose him as mayor.

    I sense some vitriol on here, and I suspect some of it if you examine yourselves is because he's a threat. Even if that's not true, you'd better believe it: that Andy Burnham reaches parts no other current Labour politiician can reach.

    He is the only one who can stop a Reform or Reform-Tory Government.

    If they don't elect Burnham as leader and de facto PM then Labour are certainly finished next GE.
    He has principles in the sense of:

    “These are my principles and if you don’t like them, I have others.”

    He was an enthusiast for Blair, when that was the coming thing. And, he was an enthusiast for Corbyn, when that was the coming thing.
    He's positioned somewhere between those two, who were after all separated by at least 10 years, but above all he's a pragmatist. And he is pro business. To whoever it was who compared him to Sunak, dearie me. Burnham walks the walk: he's been mayor of Manchester and has good gritty northern roots. As far removed from the mega-wealth marriage backed hedge fund manager as you can imagine.

    I think you need to work on your reasons better Sean.
This discussion has been closed.