Thing is. Makerfield is the longest standing continuously Labour seat in the country by some measures. 1918. It's very insular. Very deprived. By poverty of expectations as much as anything. There'll be a lot of excitement at the media circus. No one ever goes there for almost any reason.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
Since your Tory friends were moved on, the story has changed dramatically - noting that recent data does carry significant uncertainty
Let's say SKS wants to hang on. He's the king of process. What can he do? Blocking Burnham would precipitate the challenges from other candidates and he'd lose to Ange or Ed. I'd say his best route is to delay the BE for as long as possible. Frenzy subsides, Reform win. SKS wins. The timing is in the gift of Jonathan Reynolds - who's married to SKS's political director and a Starmer loyalist.
The C4 news says that Starmer is not going to block Burnham. Is he in on the coronation too?
He's close to evens Next PM now which implies clear odds on for the by-election.
But imagine if he is crushed by Reform. Labour’s most popular candidate for PM. That means a Reform government is on the way
Or imagine the opposite. The boost to Labour and blow to Reform if he walks it. Or even just wins.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
The media circus around Farage campaigning against the King of the North in the latter's fiefdom will be something else. Real toe-to-toe stuff, eyeballs bulging, etc.
When did we last have a by-election as consequential as this?
None come to mind.
It will either confirm Reform as the probable next government or make that prospect look much less likely.
It's a godsend for anti-Faragists, really, after those Locals. The upside exceeds the downside.
Let's say SKS wants to hang on. He's the king of process. What can he do? Blocking Burnham would precipitate the challenges from other candidates and he'd lose to Ange or Ed. I'd say his best route is to delay the BE for as long as possible. Frenzy subsides, Reform win. SKS wins. The timing is in the gift of Jonathan Reynolds - who's married to SKS's political director and a Starmer loyalist.
The C4 news says that Starmer is not going to block Burnham. Is he in on the coronation too?
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar · 17m BREAKING: Keir Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming Labour candidate in Makerfield - paving his way for return to Parliament and leadership bid.
Let's say SKS wants to hang on. He's the king of process. What can he do? Blocking Burnham would precipitate the challenges from other candidates and he'd lose to Ange or Ed. I'd say his best route is to delay the BE for as long as possible. Frenzy subsides, Reform win. SKS wins. The timing is in the gift of Jonathan Reynolds - who's married to SKS's political director and a Starmer loyalist.
The C4 news says that Starmer is not going to block Burnham. Is he in on the coronation too?
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar · 17m BREAKING: Keir Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming Labour candidate in Makerfield - paving his way for return to Parliament and leadership bid.
Burnham will win. He is harnessing two of the most powerful forces in UK politics: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
It won’t even be close. Everyone knows I’m not a fan of Burnham but clearly most of the Labour Party want him . Not sure about the optics if he gets in . Can he just turn up and challenge Starmer within weeks ?
Or will he pretend to be a team player for a few months ?
I visited the Wetherspoons in this seat in the early 2000s, though it doesn't really feel that long ago. A slightly-too-long walk from Bryn station, but preferable to staying a second longer on the pacer 'train'.
Makerfield was the safest seat in Greater Manchester at the time, and probably in the top five safe seats in the country. It's the walk down that one road to the pub that I remember, because I was thinking 'this must be in the Makerfield constituency, I wonder where the border with the Wigan seat is?' in a somewhat nerdish way.
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
All the chess moves including Rayner's and Streeting's statements suggest a Burnham coronation is on the cards, voters of Makerfield permitting.
So possibly not the rats in a sack that it has appeared to be over the week.
So Cabinet mostly unchanged but Ange back in then.
Let's say SKS wants to hang on. He's the king of process. What can he do? Blocking Burnham would precipitate the challenges from other candidates and he'd lose to Ange or Ed. I'd say his best route is to delay the BE for as long as possible. Frenzy subsides, Reform win. SKS wins. The timing is in the gift of Jonathan Reynolds - who's married to SKS's political director and a Starmer loyalist.
The C4 news says that Starmer is not going to block Burnham. Is he in on the coronation too?
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar · 17m BREAKING: Keir Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming Labour candidate in Makerfield - paving his way for return to Parliament and leadership bid.
I wonder if Starmer will visit the constituency to campaign for him.
Another thing. There isn't really any non Reform competition. Lib Dems have never been a factor. There aren't any students so no Green vote (which isn't a proxy Labour too right wing vote). No Tories to speak of. It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget. Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
My analysis. I'd be extremely surprised if he loses.
This sort of local insight is invaluable. Much appreciated.
I'm also from Wigan (live in the US but visit for a couple of months every year). I can't say I'm ahead of @dixiedean on local knowledge but I'll throw in my 2 cents/tuppence.
As far as I know, Burnham actually lives in the Makerfield constituency, in Bamfurlong. Has done for a long time. So it'll be a lot harder to paint him as an outsider. I think this is important.
Wigan/Makerfield is actually favorable for him. He's liked for what he's done with the buses. There's longstanding respect for him for Hillsborough.
I also know personally local people who have gone full Reform and they have the same affliction as the Qanon dudes in the US. You can't reason with them.
There is also (as you can see in that reddit post) a huge reaction against Reform. There's a lot of proud old-school (and also old themselves) labour still around and in a byelection I can see them turning out.
My gut says Burnham will win it because he is a change candidate. Vote Burnham to get rid of Starmer is a one-sentence pitch that works.
But honestly I wouldn't be betting a fortune on it.
Burnham will win. He is harnessing two of the most powerful forces in UK politics: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
It won’t even be close. Everyone knows I’m not a fan of Burnham but clearly most of the Labour Party want him . Not sure about the optics if he gets in . Can he just turn up and challenge Starmer within weeks ?
Or will he pretend to be a team player for a few months ?
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
Why does Labour have such a long-term problem choosing female leaders?
Politicians are often overly optimistic. If you’re Starmer you’ve survived for the moment and you never know what can happen in the future .
Clearly there will be no leadership challenge until Burnham gets back into the Commons . And you never know what skeletons in the cupboard might be unearthed !
At one point it looked all over for Starmer within days . It’s not over till it’s over .
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
Labour is about more than Burnham. Just a squeak though at the moment.
A point of minor detail, but i am not sure whether Josh Simons or Andy Burnham know the Makerfield constituency very well. Burnham's statement today states that he grew up in Makerfield "and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people". Simons talks about allowing Burnham to "return home".
But if he lives where i believe he lives on the fringe of Golborne, he's in Leigh and Atherton (and was formerly its MP of course, logically) not in Makerfield.
This Dec 2025 piece in The Times suggests he was certainly there at the end of last year, had been for years, and isn't planning to move out. To be fair, it's a nice house, why would he...
"I live in what a friend calls East Lancs no-man’s land, which is where Greater Manchester meets Merseyside, in a little place called Golborne. We live in an old four-bedroom semi-detached house that was built for the Pilkington family, the famous glass manufacturers from St Helens, and it looks out to the East Lancs Road. We were very lucky, in that we bought in London in the early 1990s when prices were rock-bottom. When I got elected as MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester at the 2001 general election, it allowed us to get something bigger, and that’s where we’ve lived ever since. We don’t have any plans to move, but we are getting towards that empty nest stage, so we’ll see."
The get-out could be that he's referring to the wider geographical area considered to be "-in Makerfield" rather than the Westminster seat - i don't know how far out the boundaries of that locale are considered to extend.
Anyway, i am being pedantic in the extreme but thought i would put that out there. [EDIT: just scrolled to the bottom of The Times link and the pic at the bottom in his drawing room with dog and Christmas tree give you a bit of a feel for this man of the people's "4 bed semi"]
FWIW, i think he could comfortably win this seat. Yes, it's firmly Reform territory now but there will be many disgruntled ex Lab voters who will happily back the local lad and knowing it's a blatant bid to purge Starmer and take the crown. I think he might well have won Denton too if he'd been given the chance.
Another thing. There isn't really any non Reform competition. Lib Dems have never been a factor. There aren't any students so no Green vote (which isn't a proxy Labour too right wing vote). No Tories to speak of. It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget. Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
I mean. Makerfield. With the potential PM?
I think you're right. (But my record on by elections is poorish.)
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
Why does Labour have such a long-term problem choosing female leaders?
It doesn't
There hasn't been the right opportunity at the right time.
Harriet Harman probably the most deserving and worthy.
After Thatcher, May and Truss may be Labour just feel it would be an utter disaster like the Tories.
Another thing. There isn't really any non Reform competition. Lib Dems have never been a factor. There aren't any students so no Green vote (which isn't a proxy Labour too right wing vote). No Tories to speak of. It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget. Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
I mean. Makerfield. With the potential PM?
I guess he could get blocked still and then Reform would be near certs. AIUI Starmer rumoured not to be blocking him but these rumours havent always been reliable and Starmer officially only 1 vote from 9. No idea if the other votes would follow or not.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
It would be nice if we had a leader who levelled with the voters.
For all his faults, David Cameron did a bit of this before the 2010GE.
A point of minor detail, but i am not sure whether Josh Simons or Andy Burnham know the Makerfield constituency very well. Burnham's statement today states that he grew up in Makerfield "and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people". Simons talks about allowing Burnham to "return home".
But if he lives where i believe he lives on the fringe of Golborne, he's in Leigh and Atherton (and was formerly its MP of course, logically) not in Makerfield.
This Dec 2025 piece in The Times suggests he was certainly there at the end of last year, had been for years, and isn't planning to move out. To be fair, it's a nice house, why would he...
"I live in what a friend calls East Lancs no-man’s land, which is where Greater Manchester meets Merseyside, in a little place called Golborne. We live in an old four-bedroom semi-detached house that was built for the Pilkington family, the famous glass manufacturers from St Helens, and it looks out to the East Lancs Road. We were very lucky, in that we bought in London in the early 1990s when prices were rock-bottom. When I got elected as MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester at the 2001 general election, it allowed us to get something bigger, and that’s where we’ve lived ever since. We don’t have any plans to move, but we are getting towards that empty nest stage, so we’ll see."
The get-out could be that he's referring to the wider geographical area considered to be "-in Makerfield" rather than the Westminster seat - i don't know how far out the boundaries of that locale are considered to extend.
Anyway, i am being pedantic in the extreme but thought i would put that out there. [EDIT: just scrolled to the bottom of The Times link and the pic at the bottom in his drawing room with dog and Christmas tree give you a bit of a feel for this man of the people's "4 bed semi"]
FWIW, i think he could comfortably win this seat. Yes, it's firmly Reform territory now but there will be many disgruntled ex Lab voters who will happily back the local lad and knowing it's a blatant bid to purge Starmer and take the crown. I think he might well have won Denton too if he'd been given the chance.
Well he ought to know at least a quarter of it. Cos he was the MP for the two wards, Hindley and Hindley Green, which were in Leigh. And he lived near Bamfurlong. He grew up in Culcheth which is officially Warrington MBC but is a bit of a no man's land between there Leigh and Wigan.
I'm not best pleased to know that Burnham is now very likely going to become PM, given my longstanding dislike of the guy and his puffed up self importance, but in fairness i think i'd have emigrated if Rayner or Milliband had got it. The chances of that seem to be rapidly receding now. That has to be good for the country and avoiding another Truss style premiership.
I think he could well win in 2029 too, or at least enough to keep Lab in power as a minority.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
It would be nice if we had a leader who levelled with the voters.
For all his faults, David Cameron did a bit of this before the 2010GE.
As did Theresa May. And went from CONS WIN BOOTLE to losing her majority. That is fresh in the mind of all leaders. Hence Starmer's Ming vase strategy.
I'm hopeful that Burnham will win, and form an "amicable" pact with Starmer like Blair/Brown did.
Burnham takes over from Starmer in say 18 months time.
In the meantime, Burnham becomes Foreign Secretary, and Rayner Home Secretary. Perhaps Cooper to Health.
In 18 months Burnham and Starmer swap roles, and Starmer becomes Foreign Secretary.
Burnham's whole pitch is that he's going to Westminster to create change. Why would he prop up Starmer for another 18 months? That would be a betrayal.
Another thing. There isn't really any non Reform competition. Lib Dems have never been a factor. There aren't any students so no Green vote (which isn't a proxy Labour too right wing vote). No Tories to speak of. It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget. Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
I mean. Makerfield. With the potential PM?
The 62% was when Lab were in opposition though nationally. He'll need to produce a positive prospectus for change to overcome those who want to give the government a kick
Another thing. There isn't really any non Reform competition. Lib Dems have never been a factor. There aren't any students so no Green vote (which isn't a proxy Labour too right wing vote). No Tories to speak of. It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget. Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
I mean. Makerfield. With the potential PM?
The 62% was when Lab were in opposition though nationally. He'll need to produce a positive prospectus for change to overcome those who want to give the government a kick
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
Bond markets seem unpeturbed today. Maybe its the GDP good news, and it does look as if some delivery is happening with the NHS (matching my anecdata in Leicester).
An autumn coronation seems on the cards, perhaps even with Starmer doing the shift to FCO or Justice dept.
Well a dramatic day. Streeting resigns, but does he have the 81 Labour MPs behind him he needs to challenge Starmer? Burnham says he will try and contest a by election in a seat a supporter of his has vacated and which should be ideal for him, including as it does some of his old constituency of Leigh. Will the NEC allow him to be an approved Labour parliamentary candidate though?
Streeting is probably a lay for the leadership, now.
He’s unlikely to be sent back to health, so he’ll escape the consequences of his botched attempt at NHS reorganisation, and he will have to - uncharacteristically - keep his head down over coming weeks and hope that Burnham can’t afford not to use his talent in his future top team.
But if he lives where i believe he lives on the fringe of Golborne, he's in Leigh and Atherton (and was formerly its MP of course, logically) not in Makerfield.
Hmm, I'm sure I heard locally that he lives in Bamfurlong but that quote about the East Lancs road definitely puts him in Golborne.
However, Golborne is so close as to almost not matter. And the very important thing is he dosen't live across the East Lancs in Newtown-Le-Willows which is the 'posh' bit in the area, so he can't be painted as (much as) a champagne socialist.
I'll also say that if Reform are serious about getting a local candidate, Burnham might win at a canter. The most visible local Reform councillor, (Maureen O Bern) n Wigan is a Happy Shopper version of Pauline Hanson, and if they nominate someone like her, I could easily seeing it backfire.
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Well, I passed through when I did the Kirkby to Wigan rail line in 2017.
But did yoi set foot in it? No, you did not. Whereas it turns out I HAVE been to Makerfield. Making me the board's temporary exit on the place until Dixie arrives.
Is Rainford in the seat?
I alighted at Rainford if only to "reprise" the section between there and Kirkby soon after Headbolt Lane opened two years back. (Ie. Kirkby is no longer a terminus for Merseyrail or the Wigan line).
No - Rainford is next door in St. Helens North. But close.
A point of minor detail, but i am not sure whether Josh Simons or Andy Burnham know the Makerfield constituency very well. Burnham's statement today states that he grew up in Makerfield "and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people". Simons talks about allowing Burnham to "return home".
But if he lives where i believe he lives on the fringe of Golborne, he's in Leigh and Atherton (and was formerly its MP of course, logically) not in Makerfield.
This Dec 2025 piece in The Times suggests he was certainly there at the end of last year, had been for years, and isn't planning to move out. To be fair, it's a nice house, why would he...
"I live in what a friend calls East Lancs no-man’s land, which is where Greater Manchester meets Merseyside, in a little place called Golborne. We live in an old four-bedroom semi-detached house that was built for the Pilkington family, the famous glass manufacturers from St Helens, and it looks out to the East Lancs Road. We were very lucky, in that we bought in London in the early 1990s when prices were rock-bottom. When I got elected as MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester at the 2001 general election, it allowed us to get something bigger, and that’s where we’ve lived ever since. We don’t have any plans to move, but we are getting towards that empty nest stage, so we’ll see."
The get-out could be that he's referring to the wider geographical area considered to be "-in Makerfield" rather than the Westminster seat - i don't know how far out the boundaries of that locale are considered to extend.
Anyway, i am being pedantic in the extreme but thought i would put that out there. [EDIT: just scrolled to the bottom of The Times link and the pic at the bottom in his drawing room with dog and Christmas tree give you a bit of a feel for this man of the people's "4 bed semi"]
FWIW, i think he could comfortably win this seat. Yes, it's firmly Reform territory now but there will be many disgruntled ex Lab voters who will happily back the local lad and knowing it's a blatant bid to purge Starmer and take the crown. I think he might well have won Denton too if he'd been given the chance.
Well he ought to know at least a quarter of it. Cos he was the MP for the two wards, Hindley and Hindley Green, which were in Leigh. And he lived near Bamfurlong. He grew up in Culcheth which is officially Warrington MBC but is a bit of a no man's land between there Leigh and Wigan.
Cost of a by-election and the cost of Manchester Mayor by-election. Anyone running against Burnham will be asking the good people of Makerfield, how much is Andy Burnham's ego going to cost you?
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
It would be nice if we had a leader who levelled with the voters.
For all his faults, David Cameron did a bit of this before the 2010GE.
I'm pretty sure you'd get some of that that if/when he gets to run for the leadership.
I'm not a fan of Burnham, but let's wait and see what he actually does.
There’s no guarantee Burnhams currently better approval will last if he does become the PM .
As we’ve seen it’s easier to carp from the sidelines and offer all manner of goodies than to actually govern.
I’m still mystified by the constant accusations of Labour not doing anything in office . They’ve passed lots of legislation like the renters rights and workers rights , they are actually resetting the relationship with the EU etc .
I’m hoping that they can still sign agreements on the youth experience scheme and some trade issues even with the current situation.
I wonder how TSE and others who have spoken about 'poor house' if Burnham becomes next PM are feeling tonight?
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
It's the polling. Who scores best against Farage? It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Burnham’s appeal is that he is not in government, wrestling with all the issues that drag down a politician’s popularity. So people project their unrealistic hopes on him.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
Burnham wants to increase tax for his spending so he doesn't have to borrow though, Truss' problem was she cut tax but not spending
Let youse all into a little secret though it may doxx me. My Mam and late Dad proposed and seconded Andy Burnham to be the candidate in Leigh back in 2001. That ward is now in Makerfield. He's already been MP for two of the eight wards for quite some time. On my Mam's phone contacts first name is A for Andy.
Which would explain why he’s going for this constituency - can’t really run “carpetbagger” against the ( partial ) former MP
It was why I was surprised at reforms line “Makerfield deserves a local mp”. But may be they just are that stupid
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Makerfield is the longest standing continuously Labour seat in the country by some measures. 1918.
It's very insular. Very deprived. By poverty of expectations as much as anything.
There'll be a lot of excitement at the media circus.
No one ever goes there for almost any reason.
https://x.com/colefusionhq/status/2054673946910265702?s=61
It will either confirm Reform as the probable next government or make that prospect look much less likely.
It's a godsend for anti-Faragists, really, after those Locals. The upside exceeds the downside.
@PippaCrerar
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17m
BREAKING: Keir Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming Labour candidate in Makerfield - paving his way for return to Parliament and leadership bid.
Or will he pretend to be a team player for a few months ?
Makerfield was the safest seat in Greater Manchester at the time, and probably in the top five safe seats in the country. It's the walk down that one road to the pub that I remember, because I was thinking 'this must be in the Makerfield constituency, I wonder where the border with the Wigan seat is?' in a somewhat nerdish way.
Funny how some things stay with you.
It suggests a result closer to:
🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)
+/- vs. GE2024
If the constituency voted today”
Extremely close
https://x.com/joshhousden/status/2054971152586457156?s=46
I think his chances are better than that. Perhaps 75%
If this were a routine by-election caused for any other reason, then I'd be expecting Reform to win comfortably.
But this? Burnham will win, and win big.
It's straight up Labour v Reform.
And don't forget.
Last time Burnham was on the ballot in Makerfield he got 62% of the vote.
1.68? I mean DYOR. But I'm considering a second mortgage.
I mean. Makerfield. With the potential PM?
Who have Reform got on the bench they can pitch against The King?
"Makerfield?"
"No, actually I think I'll get her to bowl."
As far as I know, Burnham actually lives in the Makerfield constituency, in Bamfurlong. Has done for a long time. So it'll be a lot harder to paint him as an outsider. I think this is important.
Wigan/Makerfield is actually favorable for him. He's liked for what he's done with the buses. There's longstanding respect for him for Hillsborough.
Reform are huge in Wigan right now. My parents report their facebook feed is full of it. If you want a flavour of the kind of garbage that gets posted (and liked) here's a good example:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Wigan/comments/1t0z95l/misinformation_central/
I also know personally local people who have gone full Reform and they have the same affliction as the Qanon dudes in the US. You can't reason with them.
There is also (as you can see in that reddit post) a huge reaction against Reform. There's a lot of proud old-school (and also old themselves) labour still around and in a byelection I can see them turning out.
My gut says Burnham will win it because he is a change candidate. Vote Burnham to get rid of Starmer is a one-sentence pitch that works.
But honestly I wouldn't be betting a fortune on it.
I have warned for a while, that where there's a will, there's a way. If enough Labour MPs decide they want Burnham, it would happen. That seems to be happening.
I imagine a number of MPs have said to Starmer something along the lines of "don't stand in the way of Burnham getting back into Parliament and you can go with dignity, do so and I will nominate someone immediately."
Labour to win 2026 Makerfield By-election and Most Seats at the next General Election - 3/1
Burnham takes over from Starmer in say 18 months time.
In the meantime, Burnham becomes Foreign Secretary, and Rayner Home Secretary. Perhaps Cooper to Health.
In 18 months Burnham and Starmer swap roles, and Starmer becomes Foreign Secretary.
So his odds aren't far off for being Next PM but he's a bit short now.
Clearly there will be no leadership challenge until Burnham gets back into the Commons . And you never know what skeletons in the cupboard might be unearthed !
At one point it looked all over for Starmer within days . It’s not over till it’s over .
In the meantime they get nothing done, but can anyone tell the difference? Penalties, unless away goals count double.
Who scores best against Farage?
It's blindingly obvious when you think about that.
Jeremy Corbyn has submitted a Subject Access Request to Labour Together.
It’s been returned. All *583 pages*
Wonder why Josh Simons has left his seat
But if he lives where i believe he lives on the fringe of Golborne, he's in Leigh and Atherton (and was formerly its MP of course, logically) not in Makerfield.
This Dec 2025 piece in The Times suggests he was certainly there at the end of last year, had been for years, and isn't planning to move out. To be fair, it's a nice house, why would he...
"I live in what a friend calls East Lancs no-man’s land, which is where Greater Manchester meets Merseyside, in a little place called Golborne. We live in an old four-bedroom semi-detached house that was built for the Pilkington family, the famous glass manufacturers from St Helens, and it looks out to the East Lancs Road. We were very lucky, in that we bought in London in the early 1990s when prices were rock-bottom. When I got elected as MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester at the 2001 general election, it allowed us to get something bigger, and that’s where we’ve lived ever since. We don’t have any plans to move, but we are getting towards that empty nest stage, so we’ll see."
https://www.thetimes.com/life-style/property-home/article/andy-burnham-greater-manchester-mayor-interview-pglrgnb25
The get-out could be that he's referring to the wider geographical area considered to be "-in Makerfield" rather than the Westminster seat - i don't know how far out the boundaries of that locale are considered to extend.
Anyway, i am being pedantic in the extreme but thought i would put that out there. [EDIT: just scrolled to the bottom of The Times link and the pic at the bottom in his drawing room with dog and Christmas tree give you a bit of a feel for this man of the people's "4 bed semi"]
FWIW, i think he could comfortably win this seat. Yes, it's firmly Reform territory now but there will be many disgruntled ex Lab voters who will happily back the local lad and knowing it's a blatant bid to purge Starmer and take the crown. I think he might well have won Denton too if he'd been given the chance.
(But my record on by elections is poorish.)
There hasn't been the right opportunity at the right time.
Harriet Harman probably the most deserving and worthy.
After Thatcher, May and Truss may be Labour just feel it would be an utter disaster like the Tories.
Mr Yusuf
Voters will effectively be choosing the next PM.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
Labour’s problem is not Starmer. It is that the party and much of what was Labour Britain are decoupling from each other. The same is true of the Conservatives and Tory Britain.
Burnham thinks he can defy the bond markets, and if he were PM, that would end as well for him as it did for Truss. When you ask people to lend you money, they get a vote.
For all his faults, David Cameron did a bit of this before the 2010GE.
He grew up in Culcheth which is officially Warrington MBC but is a bit of a no man's land between there Leigh and Wigan.
I think he could well win in 2029 too, or at least enough to keep Lab in power as a minority.
An autumn coronation seems on the cards, perhaps even with Starmer doing the shift to FCO or Justice dept.
Although, however the NEC votes that remains true.
He’s unlikely to be sent back to health, so he’ll escape the consequences of his botched attempt at NHS reorganisation, and he will have to - uncharacteristically - keep his head down over coming weeks and hope that Burnham can’t afford not to use his talent in his future top team.
NEW THREAD
However, Golborne is so close as to almost not matter. And the very important thing is he dosen't live across the East Lancs in Newtown-Le-Willows which is the 'posh' bit in the area, so he can't be painted as (much as) a champagne socialist.
I'll also say that if Reform are serious about getting a local candidate, Burnham might win at a canter. The most visible local Reform councillor, (Maureen O Bern) n Wigan is a Happy Shopper version of Pauline Hanson, and if they nominate someone like her, I could easily seeing it backfire.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/12/andy-burnham-labour-reform-prime-minister-greater-manchester-mayor-westminster
I'm not a fan of Burnham, but let's wait and see what he actually does.
As we’ve seen it’s easier to carp from the sidelines and offer all manner of goodies than to actually govern.
I’m still mystified by the constant accusations of Labour not doing anything in office . They’ve passed lots of legislation like the renters rights and workers rights , they are actually resetting the relationship with the EU etc .
I’m hoping that they can still sign agreements on the youth experience scheme and some trade issues even with the current situation.
Starmer turning up could be a way to sink him!