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Fools Rusholme in? – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Especially as he tactically voted for Plaid
    No I didn't, as I said I would have voted for Labour or the LDs as my last 2 votes had they stood candidates not Plaid
    At least your second political preference gave you something to celebrate last week, rather than having merely to drown your sorrows at so many defeated Conservatives. We happily give you that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,444
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Any Conservative considering voting for the Polanski led Greens should certainly be expelled from the party if a member and should not be allowed to call themselves a Conservative if just a voter. As clearly anyone voting for Polanski and his awful party has not a Tory bone in his body
    You cannot call yourself a Conservative because you voted for a party that wants to break up the UK.
    I voted for 4 Tories on a 6 vote ballot and 2 Plaid as they were the only other party who bothered to stand so still technically I mainly voted for unionist candidates
    And Harold Shipman mainly didn't kill his patients.
  • HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 341
    algarkirk said:

    If Streeting lacks the 81 and Burnham lacks a seat offer, what have we been doing all week?

    I predict both to be the case.

    Who knows. My old boss used to argue that if any major bit of kit broke and everything got a bit febrile. The best thing to do is send everyone to the pub - they can do less damage there than at work trying to find workarounds. Then the folks who know how to fix it can fix it and everyone can come back tomorrow and get on with the job.

    Problem is nowadays it seems no one wants to put their phone down. So you just seem to get endless speculation and rumour. At the moment we know very little. It is not obvious that Streeting has the numbers but he may. It is also not obvious that Burnham has lined up a seat, everyone that anyone speculates about seems to leads to a denial but those denials may be false. It seems that it is time to open a beer and see what tomorrow brings.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,645
    dixiedean said:

    So. Burnham doesn't have a seat. Streeting may not have the numbers. Miliband and Rayner don't seem keen.

    Do we end up either a punch drunk and humiliated Starmer counting in office with less than zero political capital
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Surely HY is advocating tactical voting - just not to your taste?
    No - quite the opposite
    No, he said "I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory". That is, he would vote tactically to block the Green candidate. The implication is that in Rusholme for example he would vote Labour to stop the Greens.
    And let Burnham win where some would not want that result
    Burnham has a -15% rating with Tory voters and -30% with Reform voters, Polanski has a -49% rating with Tories and a massive -62% rating with Reform voters

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
    Irrelevant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 13

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    That 'penalty' decision gets worse with every viewing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 13

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Any Conservative considering voting for the Polanski led Greens should certainly be expelled from the party if a member and should not be allowed to call themselves a Conservative if just a voter. As clearly anyone voting for Polanski and his awful party has not a Tory bone in his body
    You cannot call yourself a Conservative because you voted for a party that wants to break up the UK.
    I voted for 4 Tories on a 6 vote ballot and 2 Plaid as they were the only other party who bothered to stand so still technically I mainly voted for unionist candidates
    And Harold Shipman mainly didn't kill his patients.
    I voted for all unionist candidates on the ballot paper
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Yeah okay bro
  • Al Carns to stand, nice
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    Streeting in.

    Burnham wins a by-election and into cabinet.

    This is clearly the best option for Labour.

    Why would Streeting let a rival like Burnham in?
  • HYUFD said:

    Streeting in.

    Burnham wins a by-election and into cabinet.

    This is clearly the best option for Labour.

    Why would Streeting let a rival like Burnham in?
    Because Streeting wants to win
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196

    Al Carns to stand, nice

    What are you talking about
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    Streeting in.

    Burnham wins a by-election and into cabinet.

    This is clearly the best option for Labour.

    Why would Streeting let a rival like Burnham in?
    Because Streeting wants to win
    Which he won't if he lets Burnham in who would soon try and oust him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Surely HY is advocating tactical voting - just not to your taste?
    No - quite the opposite
    No, he said "I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory". That is, he would vote tactically to block the Green candidate. The implication is that in Rusholme for example he would vote Labour to stop the Greens.
    And let Burnham win where some would not want that result
    Burnham has a -15% rating with Tory voters and -30% with Reform voters, Polanski has a -49% rating with Tories and a massive -62% rating with Reform voters

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
    Irrelevant
    Of course it is relevant, it shows quite clearly Tory and Reform voters hate Polanski and his party far more than they dislike Burnham
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 847

    That 'penalty' decision gets worse with every viewing.

    Point has been made that Beaton spent around 20 seconds at the monitor compared with around a 6 minute delay from the end of the West Ham v Arsenal match.

    For me the quality of image and camera angles aren't even close to how good the English Premier league version is

    Wait til you see some of the previous examples of Scottish VAR, you could fill a comedy show with it
  • vinovino Posts: 217
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+3)
    CON: 20% (+1)
    LAB: 18% (-4)
    LDM: 14% (+1)
    GRN: 12% (-3)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @tweetfreshwater
    , 9-10 May.
    Changes w/ 10-12 Apr.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,829
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Surely HY is advocating tactical voting - just not to your taste?
    No - quite the opposite
    No, he said "I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory". That is, he would vote tactically to block the Green candidate. The implication is that in Rusholme for example he would vote Labour to stop the Greens.
    And let Burnham win where some would not want that result
    Burnham has a -15% rating with Tory voters and -30% with Reform voters, Polanski has a -49% rating with Tories and a massive -62% rating with Reform voters

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
    Irrelevant
    Of course it is relevant, it shows quite clearly Tory and Reform voters hate Polanski and his party far more than they dislike Burnham
    For someone in politics your lack of understanding of tactical voting is breathtaking
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    She will be after the 2027 locals I expect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,252

    Reddit and left Twitter’s opposition to Streeting to me indicates he’d be a good candidate.

    Until Labour works out what the problems of the country are, what the solutions to those problems are, what the policies that lead to those solutions are, and how to persuade people to vote for them, it will continue to lose and will deserve to lose. "Owning the libs" does not tell me whether Streeting is good or bad, it tells me you have poor judgement.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    After taking Starmer and labour apart today I can see why you would hope for that

    It is not happening and she now needs to take on Farage with the same gusto
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    edited May 13
    I fear that there are a number of Councils who are going to find it difficult to come to any decisions.
    If no one is working with Reform and Labour stifled by Centralisation and bureaucracy, then there isn't any obvious majority in a few places.
    Newcastle. Seemed a slam dunk Green Lib Dem administration.
    Apparently Ed Davey isn't keen however.
    But there mathematically isn't another solution unless the unlikely event of one of them working with Reform.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,738
    Although it's unlikely, it's clearly possible that Starmer sees off this seemingly half-baked insurgency and remains in place, with his power relatively undiminished. And, if so, his personal poll ratings begin to improve, because he's shown he's a political street fighter who can defeat his opponents.
    I know this may sound bonkers.
    But stranger things have happened.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,420

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    Since when have national party leaders resigned over poor local government elections? What a ridiculous idea. Starmer is only at risk because it's the final straw after two years of doing nothing useful
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,738

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    After taking Starmer and labour apart today I can see why you would hope for that

    It is not happening and she now needs to take on Farage with the same gusto
    It's much harder for Kemi to take on Farage with the same gusto when she agrees with many of his key policy planks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,829
    DoctorG said:

    Row on Radio Scotland (between two Irishmen) over the VAR influence and decisions over the last few games, specifically re penalties given/not given

    Both English and Scottish premier leagues to be decided by contentious VAR calls this year?

    We need a draw. 11 men behind the ball. Park the bus.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,252
    IanB2 said:

    ...The Labour Party is the most horrendous organisation; if you ever get close to it, hold your nose.

    We are getting an object lesson in that right now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319

    That 'penalty' decision gets worse with every viewing.

    Scottish football is more corrupt than a Farage donor. There’s no way the Scottish football authorities will let Hearts win on Sunday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    dixiedean said:

    I fear that there are a number of Councils who are going to find it difficult to come to any decisions.
    If no one is working with Reform and Labour stifled by Centralisation and bureaucracy, then there isn't any obvious majority in a few places.
    Newcastle. Seemed a slam dunk Green Lib Dem administration.
    Apparently Ed Davey isn't keen however.
    But there mathematically isn't another solution unless the unlikely event of one of them working with Reform.

    Davey may or may not have expressed a view, but it really will be up to the council group there to decide whether and what deal to do with the other parties. There’s no central control within the LibDems over local council groups - although there may well be a strategic awareness that helping the rise of the Green Party is likely suboptimal for the LibDems.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 13

    Reddit and left Twitter’s opposition to Streeting to me indicates he’d be a good candidate.

    I agree 100%. Describing him as a "Tory" or "small c-conservatvie" is ridiculous.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    After taking Starmer and labour apart today I can see why you would hope for that

    It is not happening and she now needs to take on Farage with the same gusto
    It's much harder for Kemi to take on Farage with the same gusto when she agrees with many of his key policy planks.
    Not really - there are plenty of dividing lines
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,925
    Is it possible that nothing happens tomorrow and we head for the summer recess with Keir unchallenged as PM?

    I think so
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    Matt Frei on Trump's visit to China. Very interesting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mieZ8g10bKw
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,738

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    After taking Starmer and labour apart today I can see why you would hope for that

    It is not happening and she now needs to take on Farage with the same gusto
    It's much harder for Kemi to take on Farage with the same gusto when she agrees with many of his key policy planks.
    Not really - there are plenty of dividing lines
    Such as?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I fear that there are a number of Councils who are going to find it difficult to come to any decisions.
    If no one is working with Reform and Labour stifled by Centralisation and bureaucracy, then there isn't any obvious majority in a few places.
    Newcastle. Seemed a slam dunk Green Lib Dem administration.
    Apparently Ed Davey isn't keen however.
    But there mathematically isn't another solution unless the unlikely event of one of them working with Reform.

    Davey may or may not have expressed a view, but it really will be up to the council group there to decide whether and what deal to do with the other parties. There’s no central control within the LibDems over local council groups - although there may well be a strategic awareness that helping the rise of the Green Party is likely suboptimal for the LibDems.
    Yes. He used the term "worried".
    But there isn't an alternative...
    For believers in PR you'd think they'd relish it.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/inside-newcastles-political-dilemma-election-33934931
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950

    Al Carns to stand, nice

    What are you talking about
    MP for B'ham Selly Oak that no-one's heard of.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764

    That 'penalty' decision gets worse with every viewing.

    Scottish football is more corrupt than a Farage donor. There’s no way the Scottish football authorities will let Hearts win on Sunday.
    My instinct when I saw it live was that no way that’s hit his hand, only a ball headed goes that far.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Congratulations appear to be in order for former Defence secretary Ben Wallace.

    The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has issued a warrant for his arrest. I doubt there is much chance of extradition.

    https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/2054672066259915177
  • Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Surely HY is advocating tactical voting - just not to your taste?
    No - quite the opposite
    No, he said "I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory". That is, he would vote tactically to block the Green candidate. The implication is that in Rusholme for example he would vote Labour to stop the Greens.
    And let Burnham win where some would not want that result
    Burnham has a -15% rating with Tory voters and -30% with Reform voters, Polanski has a -49% rating with Tories and a massive -62% rating with Reform voters

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
    Irrelevant
    Of course it is relevant, it shows quite clearly Tory and Reform voters hate Polanski and his party far more than they dislike Burnham
    For someone in politics your lack of understanding of tactical voting is breathtaking
    Why on earth would a Tory tactically vote for a candidate of a far left Marxist's party to beat a more centrist popular Mayor of Greater Manchester?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said Starmer wouldn’t be challenged lol

    I originally said whichever of their parties were second on NEV last week would be safe, that was Kemi not Starmer, certainly with Sky
    Kemi lost 60% of her seats outside London, starting from a low base.

    Abysmal.

    She should be out.
    Her Tories still beat Labour on NEV and made net gains in London
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    Stop insulting conservatives who see tactical voting as legitimate
    Surely HY is advocating tactical voting - just not to your taste?
    No - quite the opposite
    No, he said "I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory". That is, he would vote tactically to block the Green candidate. The implication is that in Rusholme for example he would vote Labour to stop the Greens.
    And let Burnham win where some would not want that result
    Burnham has a -15% rating with Tory voters and -30% with Reform voters, Polanski has a -49% rating with Tories and a massive -62% rating with Reform voters

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
    Irrelevant
    Of course it is relevant, it shows quite clearly Tory and Reform voters hate Polanski and his party far more than they dislike Burnham
    For someone in politics your lack of understanding of tactical voting is breathtaking
    Why on earth would a Tory tactically vote for a candidate of a far left Marxist's party to beat a more centrist popular Mayor of Greater Manchester?
    To prevent him becoming a left wing labour PM
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 13
    All of this makes you wonder whether winning a majority of say 40 is better than 170, not just for this administration but for any government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    Congratulations appear to be in order for former Defence secretary Ben Wallace.

    The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has issued a warrant for his arrest. I doubt there is much chance of extradition.

    https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/2054672066259915177

    He should be checking his upstairs windows don't open fully, mind.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687
    Andy_JS said:

    All of this makes you wonder whether winning a majority of say 40 is been better than 170 for any government.

    Boris couldn't make 80 work...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    I'd vote Green over Reform/Restore on the grounds that the Greens are going to deport me like the Re lot.

    I'm sane by the way, my mother had me tested.
    You don't seriously believe Reform/Restore would start deporting people who are legally in the UK?
    Lol the naivety/indifference of white British Reformists is off the scale.
    Okay then. Which people do you think are likely to be deported?
  • dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
    That’s a good point and possibly the best argument for Burnham. He can’t be blamed for this desperate clueless shit-show of a government, because he’s not in it

    If he does somehow win the leadership, he needs to clear out most of the Cabinet. It’s like a new editor of a newspaper. The best ones impose their personality with a huge painful purge. It hurts but it works. Everyone grasps: this is new

    He obviously starts with kicking Tiny Tears out of Number 11
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
    Yes but how does he get a seat? The MP for Rusholme has just said he's not resigning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    Andy_JS said:

    All of this makes you wonder whether winning a majority of say 40 is better than 170, not just for this administration but for any government.

    You are Frances Pym and I claim my £10….
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    edited May 13
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
    Yes but how does he get a seat? The MP for Rusholme has just said he's not resigning.
    I don't know.
    I do know he applied for Gorton and Denton and the Party in Westminster decided they'd put rocket boosters under the Greens and Reform instead.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    Nicki Minaj is a fan of Kemi.

    https://x.com/NICKIMINAJ/status/2054668229411299550

    😩 The UK is truly one of a kind.

    They will portray her in film & TV one day…just like they did with Margaret Thatcher.
  • No one seems to have noticed that Labour are down 4 in that freshwater poll. It’s not just that Reform have got a major boost from the locals, Labour are plunging. The Tories are not
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 13
    Nick Watt on Newsnight: senior Labour source says two-thirds of cabinet have told Starmer he needs to go soon.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    No one seems to have noticed that Labour are down 4 in that freshwater poll. It’s not just that Reform have got a major boost from the locals, Labour are plunging. The Tories are not

    Are they new?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    So according to Nick Watt the only person who can save us from Miliband is Starmer .

    Apparently Miliband won’t stand if Starmer decides to fight on !
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    edited May 13

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
    That’s a good point and possibly the best argument for Burnham. He can’t be blamed for this desperate clueless shit-show of a government, because he’s not in it

    If he does somehow win the leadership, he needs to clear out most of the Cabinet. It’s like a new editor of a newspaper. The best ones impose their personality with a huge painful purge. It hurts but it works. Everyone grasps: this is new

    He obviously starts with kicking Tiny Tears out of Number 11
    Clearly this government is moribund.
    The only possible way back is someone who hasn't been in it.
    And given that we've three more years of it, like it or not, thanks to those of us who voted for it, it's in everyone's interest that it at least gets some kind of hearing.
    How that happens is above my pay grade.
    But that's how I see it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Nick Watt on Newsnight: senior Labour source says two-thirds of cabinet have told Starmer he needs to go soon.

    "Cabinet" is not a fixed number. Are we talking about the Minister ministers, or everybody including the Parliamentary undersecretaries?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    nico67 said:

    So according to Nick Watt the only person who can save us from Miliband is Starmer .

    Apparently Miliband won’t stand if Starmer decides to fight on !

    Starmer v Streeting then, I suspect Starmer wins that about 60% to 40% with Ed Miliband backing the PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    nico67 said:

    So according to Nick Watt the only person who can save us from Miliband is Starmer .

    Apparently Miliband won’t stand if Starmer decides to fight on !

    Starmer v Streeting then, I suspect Starmer wins that about 60% to 40% with Ed Miliband backing the PM
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    So according to Nick Watt the only person who can save us from Miliband is Starmer .

    Apparently Miliband won’t stand if Starmer decides to fight on !

    Starmer v Streeting then, I suspect Starmer wins that about 60% to 40% with Ed Miliband backing the PM
    It's a stitch-up. Starmer will oppose Streeting right up until the moment when no-one else is viable and then support him for the sake of party unity and it will be a coronation.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 647
    edited May 13
    If Andy Burnham had any sense he would continue to serve his term out as a successful mayor and wait until after the next general election, to take over from whomever loses it. Becoming Prime Minister now is not very appealing since there is no money in the coffers and the party is divided and lacking realism. Labour could regain power as part of a coalition in about 2031. We may have to wait until 2029 for the next election but we won't be waiting that much longer for the one after I reckon.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
    Going back two years he could have actually had a clear plan for government when it was so obvious Labour were going to win; and then implemented that plan.
    Indeed so

    Labour could have avoided ALL of this - all of it - if they’d spent just a few of those 14 years in opposition deciding what to do in power. Starmer should have entered Number 10 in calm command. With firm ideas, a ready team, a steady gaze at the horizon

    Instead they entered office with one plan: to grasp as many freebies as possible and squabble over who got the nice free houses

    A pitiful spectacle. They don’t deserve a second term and they won’t get one. They may not survive the defeat coming their way
    This is why I have to back Burnham.
    At least he wasn't in the tent when this lack of plan was formulated.
    And he's quite spectacularly failed to bankrupt Manchester.
    That’s a good point and possibly the best argument for Burnham. He can’t be blamed for this desperate clueless shit-show of a government, because he’s not in it

    If he does somehow win the leadership, he needs to clear out most of the Cabinet. It’s like a new editor of a newspaper. The best ones impose their personality with a huge painful purge. It hurts but it works. Everyone grasps: this is new

    He obviously starts with kicking Tiny Tears out of Number 11
    Clearly this government is moribund.
    The only possible way back is someone who hasn't been in it.
    And given that we've three more years of it, like it or not, thanks to those of us who voted for it, it's in everyone's interest that it at least gets some kind of hearing.
    How that happens is above my pay grade.
    But that's how I see it.
    I tend to agree

    I’d prefer Streeting because he’s on the right (and I have a possibly delusional belief he’d be OK)

    Failing that, Burnham is the best for the reasons we’ve discussed. He’s not tainted by this abject failure. He’s done well in Manchester (it seems). He’s a fresh-ish face who might bring fresh ideas

    Rayner is a horrible risk and a likely disaster
    Miliband is worse
    Keeping Starmer? lol
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950

    If Andy Burnham had any sense he would continue to serve his term out as a successful mayor and wait until after the next general election, to take over from whomever loses it. Becoming Prime Minister now is not very appealing since there is no money in the coffers and the party is divided and lacking realism. Labour could regain power as part of a coalition in about 2031. We may have to wait until 2029 for the next election but we won't be waiting that much longer for the one after I reckon.

    You're convinced a Farage-led government wouldn't last long?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    If Andy Burnham had any sense he would continue to serve his term out as a successful mayor and wait until after the next general election, to take over from whomever loses it. Becoming Prime Minister now is not very appealing since there is no money in the coffers and the party is divided and lacking realism. Labour could regain power as part of a coalition in about 2031. We may have to wait until 2029 for the next election but we won't be waiting that much longer for the one after I reckon.

    Burnham could beat Farage at the next GE, once Farage gets in he may be difficult to dislodge
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    If Andy Burnham had any sense he would continue to serve his term out as a successful mayor and wait until after the next general election, to take over from whomever loses it. Becoming Prime Minister now is not very appealing since there is no money in the coffers and the party is divided and lacking realism. Labour could regain power as part of a coalition in about 2031. We may have to wait until 2029 for the next election but we won't be waiting that much longer for the one after I reckon.

    He'd be 59 by the next election and possibly facing 5 years as LOTO.
    Is that really a plan?
    His time was Gorton and Denton.
    But the control freaks in Labour HQ weren't having it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 13
    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting leads him by only 7%, even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader. Rayner leads Farage by an even lower 6% in terms of who they would prefer to win the next GE on a forced choice
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    edited May 13
    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting by only 7% even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader

    Folk keep ignoring the polling which is staring them in the face.
    It is said Major became PM because polling showed he had the best chance of winning an election.
    And he lasted 7 years despite few obvious qualities.
    Burnham beats Farage.
    That is all.
    The rest is overthinking.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Reddit and left Twitter’s opposition to Streeting to me indicates he’d be a good candidate.

    I agree 100%. Describing him as a "Tory" or "small c-conservatvie" is ridiculous.
    OK, I'll bite. Why is it ridiculous?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    IanB2 said:


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey
    Apparently
    @brumlabour
    can’t appoint its Leader in Birmingham, because it has to await approval from Starmer or Steve Reed! The last centrally annointed leader hardly worked out well. Utter disregard for local members & elected councillors again.


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey

    And how does that work regarding possible rainbow coalition with Greens, Lib Dens & Indies to run
    @BhamCityCouncil ? Birmingham is now hanging around waiting for central Labour Party to distract its attention from leadership struggles to colonially appoint a Brum labour leader.

    https://x.com/dgbailey/status/2054493850836566395

    Yep. When my group of LibDem councillors found ourselves in the balance, me and my deputy had meetings with both Tory and Labour group leaders to discuss a possible deal. The Tory leader asked us what sort of deal we had in mind, I tabled some suggestions I had already prepared and agreed with colleagues, and he promised to get back to me the next morning. So off we trotted to meet the Labour leader and deputy, who immediately launched into a twenty minute lecture about how even the idea of a deal would have to be referred to some local government committee within London Labour Party, then referred to HQ for sign off, with the details of any agreement similarly referred back to the same committee before Labour councillors locally would be able to agree to it. They explained the meeting schedule of the various party bodies that would be deciding on our deal, and it was clear that the whole thing would take weeks, and that we’d never get to see or meet the real decision makers. The next morning the Tory leader got back to us with a few tweaks to what we had suggested, and our coalition deal was done, and lasted the full four years.

    The Labour Party is the most horrendous organisation; if you ever get close to it, hold your nose.
    "Process"...

    That goes some way towards explaining why it's taken Starmer a year and a half, with an impregnable Commons majority, to do not very much at all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting leads him by only 7%, even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader. Rayner leads Farage by an even lower 6% in terms of who they would prefer to win the next GE on a forced choice

    It isn't a presidential election though.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 13
    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    On the NYT's reporting of Israeli abuses:

    https://x.com/MosheELavi/status/2054618395698418124

    'The timing compounds everything. On a day when documented reporting on Hamas sexual violence was again circulating, the NYT chose to run an opinion column built substantially on unverifiable anonymous testimony asserting that Israelis are conducting systemic rape campaigns, not as a rigorously evidenced investigative report but as an opinion piece with the imprimatur of the paper of record.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    White House casts Tucker Carlson as a possible domestic terrorist.
    https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/2054359125597757797

    You don't have to like Carlson (FWIW, I hold him in deep contempt) to be alarmed by the way in which the administration is steadily perverting the institutions of the state to go after its opponents.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    At least we can all console ourselves by laughing at Rangers.
    With all the drama elsewhere I hadn't clocked they lost at home to Hibs.
  • Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey
    Apparently
    @brumlabour
    can’t appoint its Leader in Birmingham, because it has to await approval from Starmer or Steve Reed! The last centrally annointed leader hardly worked out well. Utter disregard for local members & elected councillors again.


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey

    And how does that work regarding possible rainbow coalition with Greens, Lib Dens & Indies to run
    @BhamCityCouncil ? Birmingham is now hanging around waiting for central Labour Party to distract its attention from leadership struggles to colonially appoint a Brum labour leader.

    https://x.com/dgbailey/status/2054493850836566395

    Yep. When my group of LibDem councillors found ourselves in the balance, me and my deputy had meetings with both Tory and Labour group leaders to discuss a possible deal. The Tory leader asked us what sort of deal we had in mind, I tabled some suggestions I had already prepared and agreed with colleagues, and he promised to get back to me the next morning. So off we trotted to meet the Labour leader and deputy, who immediately launched into a twenty minute lecture about how even the idea of a deal would have to be referred to some local government committee within London Labour Party, then referred to HQ for sign off, with the details of any agreement similarly referred back to the same committee before Labour councillors locally would be able to agree to it. They explained the meeting schedule of the various party bodies that would be deciding on our deal, and it was clear that the whole thing would take weeks, and that we’d never get to see or meet the real decision makers. The next morning the Tory leader got back to us with a few tweaks to what we had suggested, and our coalition deal was done, and lasted the full four years.

    The Labour Party is the most horrendous organisation; if you ever get close to it, hold your nose.
    "Process"...

    That goes some way towards explaining why it's taken Starmer a year and a half, with an impregnable Commons majority, to do not very much at all.
    Two years, pretty much
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,180
    Andy_JS said:

    All of this makes you wonder whether winning a majority of say 40 is better than 170, not just for this administration but for any government.

    Or, it's not about the number.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey
    Apparently
    @brumlabour
    can’t appoint its Leader in Birmingham, because it has to await approval from Starmer or Steve Reed! The last centrally annointed leader hardly worked out well. Utter disregard for local members & elected councillors again.


    Prof David Bailey
    @dgbailey

    And how does that work regarding possible rainbow coalition with Greens, Lib Dens & Indies to run
    @BhamCityCouncil ? Birmingham is now hanging around waiting for central Labour Party to distract its attention from leadership struggles to colonially appoint a Brum labour leader.

    https://x.com/dgbailey/status/2054493850836566395

    Yep. When my group of LibDem councillors found ourselves in the balance, me and my deputy had meetings with both Tory and Labour group leaders to discuss a possible deal. The Tory leader asked us what sort of deal we had in mind, I tabled some suggestions I had already prepared and agreed with colleagues, and he promised to get back to me the next morning. So off we trotted to meet the Labour leader and deputy, who immediately launched into a twenty minute lecture about how even the idea of a deal would have to be referred to some local government committee within London Labour Party, then referred to HQ for sign off, with the details of any agreement similarly referred back to the same committee before Labour councillors locally would be able to agree to it. They explained the meeting schedule of the various party bodies that would be deciding on our deal, and it was clear that the whole thing would take weeks, and that we’d never get to see or meet the real decision makers. The next morning the Tory leader got back to us with a few tweaks to what we had suggested, and our coalition deal was done, and lasted the full four years.

    The Labour Party is the most horrendous organisation; if you ever get close to it, hold your nose.
    "Process"...

    That goes some way towards explaining why it's taken Starmer a year and a half, with an impregnable Commons majority, to do not very much at all.
    Two years, pretty much
    I was allowing then a few months grace to get over the shock of winning, and get they're feet under the table.
    Even on that generous measure, they've been feeble.

    That's not a party political view, it's shared across the political spectrum, including Starmer's current Labour critics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    Andy_JS said:

    All of this makes you wonder whether winning a majority of say 40 is better than 170, not just for this administration but for any government.

    Or, it's not about the number.
    It's not the size; it's what you do with it ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Being DPP is all about being good at process.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,818

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
    Can you really be dim and make it as a DPP?

    Good night.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting by only 7% even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader

    Folk keep ignoring the polling which is staring them in the face.
    It is said Major became PM because polling showed he had the best chance of winning an election.
    And he lasted 7 years despite few obvious qualities.
    Burnham beats Farage.
    That is all.
    The rest is overthinking.
    I think several could beat Farage. I still see him as a protest vote which will disappear when a serious leader leading a serious party turns up
    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting leads him by only 7%, even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader. Rayner leads Farage by an even lower 6% in terms of who they would prefer to win the next GE on a forced choice

    It would be interesting to see some analysis of Burnham's vote and Streetings and even why Starmer is such a voter turn-off
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,818

    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
    Can you really be dim and make it as a DPP?

    Good night.
    Yes.

    Also, it's possibly he has got supider as he's gotten older.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting leads him by only 7%, even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader. Rayner leads Farage by an even lower 6% in terms of who they would prefer to win the next GE on a forced choice

    It isn't a presidential election though.
    No but I expect the Green and LD vote will collapse to Labour in Labour held marginal seats if it looks like Farage could become PM at the next GE.

    I don't however expect the Tory vote to collapse to Reform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting by only 7% even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader

    Folk keep ignoring the polling which is staring them in the face.
    It is said Major became PM because polling showed he had the best chance of winning an election.
    And he lasted 7 years despite few obvious qualities.
    Burnham beats Farage.
    That is all.
    The rest is overthinking.
    Heseltine actually led Kinnock in polls by more than Major did but given Thatcher trailed Kinnock in polling by 1990 Major was an acceptable compromise for Thatcherites who wanted to hold their seats but could not stand Hezza
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,126
    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
    I wouldn't say 'dim' - just a very narrow horizon. I somehow imagine him pondering over a menu - then ordering the same thing as last time. I think that's maybe my overriding picture of him - 'Same again'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 13
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
    I wouldn't say 'dim' - just a very narrow horizon. I somehow imagine him pondering over a menu - then ordering the same thing as last time. I think that's maybe my overriding picture of him - 'Same again'.
    He plays the flute but there are apparently no public videos of him playing it. Sums up Starmer's boring-ness. This would be something interesting for the public to see.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.

    Starmer is simply dim. And he's not even dim but cunning, he is just simply and irredeemably, dim
    I wouldn't say 'dim' - just a very narrow horizon. I somehow imagine him pondering over a menu - then ordering the same thing as last time. I think that's maybe my overriding picture of him - 'Same again'.
    "Peas again tonight, Norma?"
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 564

    nico67 said:

    Ratters said:

    The biggest tragedy of this as a centre left liberal, is that Labour were in opposition for 14 years. Four election defeats. And they managed to scrape themselves to a huge majority where they shouldn't have been constrained on passing legislation, not if they were good at politics.

    And yet here we are, 22 months in, discussing how they best replace the PM who has become one of the least liked in history.

    And two of the four potential candidates to replace him are the same as those who contested the 2010 leadership election. And the king over the water not only lost that one, but also the 2015 leadership election.

    It's just so tragically useless.

    I really hope we get a surprise and someone unexpected comes through and wins . It’s bizarre that we’ll end up with two PMs , Johnson and Starmer who had big majorities and couldn’t even get close to serving a full term .

    Maybe this is just the new normal .
    No it’s not normal

    Starmer, in particular, just had to be a competent man with a plan. Given that he was DPP for years and they had 14 years in opposition, this expectation was entirely reasonable

    His failures on both counts are bizarre. I see only two policies where he’s shown real determination and a plan to battle through opposition. But those two policies were “assisted dying” and paying to give away the Chagos islands. The first was highly contentious and the second arguably treasonous

    It’s mad. Why those two? It’s not implausible Starmer is compromised in some way. If he isn’t compromised then he’s really quite dim, singularly unsuited to politics, and becoming DPP merely requires a paper shuffling apparatchik
    THere is a third determined policy.

    Corrupt the courts to squash fossil fuel and genocide protesters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Nigelb said:

    White House casts Tucker Carlson as a possible domestic terrorist.
    https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/2054359125597757797

    You don't have to like Carlson (FWIW, I hold him in deep contempt) to be alarmed by the way in which the administration is steadily perverting the institutions of the state to go after its opponents.

    Indeed, he's a horrible, horrible man, but the degradation of state institutions in general is worrying. And whilst they didn't cause it, the Supreme Court gave a green light to every kind of perversion, abuse, and corruption under the sun.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    What Tory or Reform voter is going to vote for a far left Marxist Republican who wants massive tax hikes, unlimited spending, unlimited immigration and is uber woke and wants to rejoin the EU?
    You are just silly

    Tactical voting is very real
    I would vote for any party over the far left Greens as would any sane Tory
    I'd vote Green over Reform/Restore on the grounds that the Greens are going to deport me like the Re lot.

    I'm sane by the way, my mother had me tested.
    You don't seriously believe Reform/Restore would start deporting people who are legally in the UK?
    Reform? Probably not, especially as they try to become more and more mainstream.

    Restore? Of course they would.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston show poll just show on ITV finds Burnham leads Farage by 16% but Streeting by only 7% even worse than the 11% Starmer lead over the Reform leader

    Folk keep ignoring the polling which is staring them in the face.
    It is said Major became PM because polling showed he had the best chance of winning an election.
    And he lasted 7 years despite few obvious qualities.
    Burnham beats Farage.
    That is all.
    The rest is overthinking.
    Heseltine actually led Kinnock in polls by more than Major did but given Thatcher trailed Kinnock in polling by 1990 Major was an acceptable compromise for Thatcherites who wanted to hold their seats but could not stand Hezza
    My first political bet, I won £1 off my Yorkshire Heseltine fan flatmate
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,229
    dixiedean said:

    If Andy Burnham had any sense he would continue to serve his term out as a successful mayor and wait until after the next general election, to take over from whomever loses it. Becoming Prime Minister now is not very appealing since there is no money in the coffers and the party is divided and lacking realism. Labour could regain power as part of a coalition in about 2031. We may have to wait until 2029 for the next election but we won't be waiting that much longer for the one after I reckon.

    He'd be 59 by the next election and possibly facing 5 years as LOTO.
    Is that really a plan?
    His time was Gorton and Denton.
    But the control freaks in Labour HQ weren't having it.
    Not for the first time in history, the control freaks seem freakishly terrible at controlling stuff.
This discussion has been closed.