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Fools Rusholme in? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,256
edited May 13 in General
Fools Rusholme in? – politicalbetting.com

I know Manchester fairly well and my first reaction to the idea of Andy Burnham standing in a potential Rusholme by-election was that’s good idea from Burnham but there is a caveat.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,182
    Zeroth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Burnham has to get the approval of the NEC to be a Labour parliamentary candidate in Rusholme. If not, then even if Labour held it he would not be an MP in time to join any Starmer v Streeting Labour leadership contest.

    Burnham does poll better with Greens than Starmer or Streeting though so if he was allowed to fight the by election then he likely wins it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,445
    RobD said:

    Zeroth

    Just beaten by minus-oneth, shame.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    If Galloway et al pile in, that makes Burnham’s path to victory easier, surely?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    I hope he loses
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,114
    I reckon they should elect a Raynor-Miliband ticket.

    Raynor as the more charismatic figure, as well as being the first female Labour PM.

    Miliband I think is far more capable at policy and governing. He can be Chancellor and drive much of the policy agenda.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    IanB2 said:

    If Galloway et al pile in, that makes Burnham’s path to victory easier, surely?

    Certainly. Greens ought to be the big threat.
    Galloway would simply split that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,934
    Burnham to join the Rusholme Ruffians?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,091
    edited May 13
    Ratters said:

    I reckon they should elect a Raynor-Miliband ticket.

    Raynor as the more charismatic figure, as well as being the first female Labour PM.

    Miliband I think is far more capable at policy and governing. He can be Chancellor and drive much of the policy agenda.

    You can't be First Lord of the Treasury whilst you are under investigation by HMRC

    Plus she lacks the gravitas necessary.

    Deputy leader was her level and she screwed that up
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Streeting and Ed M
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    IanB2 said:

    If Galloway et al pile in, that makes Burnham’s path to victory easier, surely?

    Galloway takes the Green vote en masse and cannibalises the Labour vote.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    Go on holiday, nothing will happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,445
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    The UK, forever swapping PMs. If only we could emulate the stability of those Italians, eh.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Galloway et al pile in, that makes Burnham’s path to victory easier, surely?

    Galloway takes the Green vote en masse and cannibalises the Labour vote.
    He'd take part of the Green vote.
    Can't see him taking the studenty bit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Looking at those numbers, I think a Burnham victory would be far from certain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    You're using lots of energy as Labour tries to Burnham all up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,934
    edited May 13
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Streeting and Ed M

    Ed gets Chancellor if he doesn't stand.

    Nothing if he does. (Or maybe the top job. Do you feel lucky, punk?)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    HYUFD said:

    Burnham has to get the approval of the NEC to be a Labour parliamentary candidate in Rusholme. If not, then even if Labour held it he would not be an MP in time to join any Starmer v Streeting Labour leadership contest.

    Burnham does poll better with Greens than Starmer or Streeting though so if he was allowed to fight the by election then he likely wins it

    Are the NEC really going to greenlight a situation where Starmer holds off Streeting only for Burnham to become MP 2 months later and have a go?
    It would be madness.
    Perhaps McSweeney really was holding it altogether.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    At 100/1 on Miliband I can understand that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Rob Ford agrees with me.

    Could be tricky. Muslim voters have swung very hard against Labour, this seat has v large Muslim community and Burnham would be replacing a Muslim MP

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2054645290531975556
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327
    edited May 13
    Nationally a NET 51% of 2024 Labour voters would regard Andy Burnham as acceptable to them as PM, but so too would a NET 29% of 2024 Green voters. (Opinium, fieldwork 6th May 2026) (i.e. Net acceptable v unacceptable)

    Those two groups constitute 75% of the Rusholme voting electorate in 2024. I don't think Burnham should have too many worries over being elected there.

    His main worry should be the extremely small chance that the NEC Officers group will play ball by both allowing him to stand and also delaying the leadership contest timetable by a couple of months in order for the by-election to take place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    Didn't PB use to have more than one editor? (Other than OGH).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rob Ford agrees with me.

    Could be tricky. Muslim voters have swung very hard against Labour, this seat has v large Muslim community and Burnham would be replacing a Muslim MP

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2054645290531975556

    Whats Burnham said about Gaza? Or ILR?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    I'm not convinced Andy has a seat.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,881
    I'd have thought the last thing Galloway would want to do is help Labour/ Burnham win the seat. I think he'd want to stand aside and advise his supporters to vote Green.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    Sean_F said:

    Looking at those numbers, I think a Burnham victory would be far from certain.

    Electoral Calculus currently has a prediction of the Greens getting 49.9% at the next GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,934
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rob Ford agrees with me.

    Could be tricky. Muslim voters have swung very hard against Labour, this seat has v large Muslim community and Burnham would be replacing a Muslim MP

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2054645290531975556

    Has Burnham got the Asian community leaders votes?

    Is the Asian community impressed with what he has done for them as Manc Mayor?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    So my contact in Withington says there's talk of Burnham standing there.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    edited May 13
    I gave up doomscrolling and instead made a wild mushroom risotto. I cook with wine, sometimes I even add it to the food.
    The idea of black pudding and scallops will have to wait as I had to come home rather than schlep to Stockbridge for Waitrose.

    The risotto is il Riposo. Time to have another glass.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    Ed is favourite to be "next permanent chancellor of the exchequer" with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253381184
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278
    edited May 13
    There's been talk that Starmer could just make sure the writ isn't moved for a by-election in any kind of meaningful time.

    But the Speaker can move the writ if there is recess.

    Recess is due for half term I think?

    Speaker might think the people of Rushholme or ANO Manchester seat deserve representation.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Starmer should just resign. He's done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,182
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    Thanks, btw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    'Politics UK understands around 1,600 new members have joined Labour since last Thursday

    The vast majority cited support for Keir Starmer as the reason'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054620202155778065?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    'Keir Starmer invited all Ministers into his office tonight to tell them that for the sake of the country, "Wes can't win"

    One Minister said: “There was something in his eyes I haven't seen before. And I liked it"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054610378571587974?s=20
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blow the final whistles in Scotland now!

    God please let this be the case
    Having a non-old firm team win would be amazing, even if it is Hearts.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    'Keir Starmer invited all Ministers into his office tonight to tell them that for the sake of the country, "Wes can't win"

    One Minister said: “There was something in his eyes I haven't seen before. And I liked it"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054610378571587974?s=20

    Fear
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rob Ford agrees with me.

    Could be tricky. Muslim voters have swung very hard against Labour, this seat has v large Muslim community and Burnham would be replacing a Muslim MP

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2054645290531975556

    Has Burnham got the Asian community leaders votes?

    Is the Asian community impressed with what he has done for them as Manc Mayor?
    I mentioned that X is a cesspit.

    Plenty of people ranting that Burnham is a “Zionist.” Galloway could easily run a campaign along those lines.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,881
    What would Burnham's pitch be: I've been a great mayor for Manchester, which is why I'm abandoning the mayorality now in favour of furthering my own naked ambition?

    The voters may well feel that Burnham simply wants to use them, and send him a big 'F*ck off' message.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681
    Sean_F said:

    Looking at those numbers, I think a Burnham victory would be far from certain.

    If he wins the by-election, what if he then doesn't win the leadership election?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    HYUFD said:

    'Keir Starmer invited all Ministers into his office tonight to tell them that for the sake of the country, "Wes can't win"

    One Minister said: “There was something in his eyes I haven't seen before. And I liked it"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054610378571587974?s=20

    Reads like sub Jilly Cooper fan fic
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,091
    HYUFD said:

    'Politics UK understands around 1,600 new members have joined Labour since last Thursday

    The vast majority cited support for Keir Starmer as the reason'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054620202155778065?s=20

    I find that rather hard to believe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's exciting writing all these threads, exhausting, but exciting.

    The UK, forever swapping PMs. If only we could emulate the stability of those Italians, eh.
    And the fiscal stability of Greece.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    Sweeney74 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Keir Starmer invited all Ministers into his office tonight to tell them that for the sake of the country, "Wes can't win"

    One Minister said: “There was something in his eyes I haven't seen before. And I liked it"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054610378571587974?s=20

    Reads like sub Jilly Cooper fan fic
    Sounds like Starmer gets the hayfever too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Would Britons vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest?

    Remain: 25% (-8 from 11 May 2023)
    Leave: 24% (+12)
    Would not vote: 40% (-5)

    Reform voters most in favour of leaving

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2054592699638931735?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    2026 Generic Congressional Vote

    🔵Democrats: 48.9%
    🔴Republicans: 42.3%

    Democrats’ 6.6-point generic ballot lead is their largest of this cycle in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average.

    https://x.com/RCPolling/status/2054598142876655974?s=20
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rob Ford agrees with me.

    Could be tricky. Muslim voters have swung very hard against Labour, this seat has v large Muslim community and Burnham would be replacing a Muslim MP

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2054645290531975556

    Whats Burnham said about Gaza? Or ILR?
    This is relevant:

    How Andy Burnham stood up to Starmer over Israel and could now reshape UK foreign policy
    If he became PM, the Greater Manchester mayor would likely reorient British policy on Israel

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-andy-burnham-stood-starmer-over-israel-and-could-now-reshape-uk-foreign-policy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    'Pope infuriates Iranians and risks reigniting Trump row by awarding top Vatican honour to Tehran ambassador'

    https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2054610524525011072?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 13
    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    HYUFD said:

    Would Britons vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest?

    Remain: 25% (-8 from 11 May 2023)
    Leave: 24% (+12)
    Would not vote: 40% (-5)

    Reform voters most in favour of leaving

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2054592699638931735?s=20

    As a candidate for the worst Brexit proxy, that's up there.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    rottenborough said:

    There's been talk that Starmer could just make sure the writ isn't moved for a by-election in any kind of meaningful time.

    But the Speaker can move the writ if there is recess.

    Recess is due for half term I think?

    Speaker might think the people of Rushholme or ANO Manchester seat deserve representation.

    Let's face it he'd love the adulation he'd get from the opposition for moving it as fast as possible, if it was football a team mate would put their foot through his knee in training.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    HYUFD said:

    'Pope infuriates Iranians and risks reigniting Trump row by awarding top Vatican honour to Tehran ambassador'

    https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2054610524525011072?s=20

    What’s Ollie done now!!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681
    ThomasNashe said:

    What would Burnham's pitch be: I've been a great mayor for Manchester, which is why I'm abandoning the mayorality now in favour of furthering my own naked ambition?

    The voters may well feel that Burnham simply wants to use them, and send him a big 'F*ck off' message.

    They might like the idea of having the PM in their own constituency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,182
    edited May 13
    HYUFD said:

    'Pope infuriates Iranians and risks reigniting Trump row by awarding top Vatican honour to Tehran ambassador'

    https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2054610524525011072?s=20

    Top trolling from the Vatican, offering a papal knighthood to an ambassador from a Muslim theocratic regime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,806
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278

    Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦
    @jurgen_nauditt

    Russian refinery in Perm completely halts operations following Ukrainian drone attack — Reuters.

    The facility in question is the Permnaftoorgsintez refinery, which belongs to Lukoil and is Russia's seventh-largest oil refinery.
    In 2024, the company processed approximately 12.6 million tons of crude oil.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2054610894999707760
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    Andy_JS said:

    Ed is favourite to be "next permanent chancellor of the exchequer" with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253381184

    Is that because all the hopefuls are promising it to him if he doesn't run?
    Can't see why he'd want it, either stay at Energy and see it through or be PM and appoint someone to see it through.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,551
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    1 more Green MP doesn't make a difference, but stopping Burnham helps keep Labour down
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,934
    HYUFD said:

    2026 Generic Congressional Vote

    🔵Democrats: 48.9%
    🔴Republicans: 42.3%

    Democrats’ 6.6-point generic ballot lead is their largest of this cycle in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average.

    https://x.com/RCPolling/status/2054598142876655974?s=20

    There is other polling significantly ahead of that.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    Andy_JS said:

    Ed is favourite to be "next permanent chancellor of the exchequer" with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253381184

    Are they not hiring temps for the role any more?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    edited May 13
    My sample of 2 green/lab swing voters indicates Burnham would win
    One actually is in the constituency
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You make these bold statements with no evidence

    Tactical voting may well come into play, and no tory would vote Plaid but you did !!!!!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,422
    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,422
    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You make these bold statements with no evidence

    Tactical voting may well come into play, and no tory would vote Plaid but you did !!!!!
    I’d expect some to do it just because Burnham loosing would be hilarious.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    RochdalePioneers said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    Indeed - he should have resigned and laid out a timetable
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,914
    HYUFD said:

    Would Britons vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest?

    Remain: 25% (-8 from 11 May 2023)
    Leave: 24% (+12)
    Would not vote: 40% (-5)

    Reform voters most in favour of leaving

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2054592699638931735?s=20

    Oh god, not again!
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    Foss said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You make these bold statements with no evidence

    Tactical voting may well come into play, and no tory would vote Plaid but you did !!!!!
    I’d expect some to do it just because Burnham loosing would be hilarious.
    I expect some to vote tactically as Burnham is an entitled, arrogant arsehole.
  • Herner_WerzogHerner_Werzog Posts: 18
    rottenborough said:

    There's been talk that Starmer could just make sure the writ isn't moved for a by-election in any kind of meaningful time.

    But the Speaker can move the writ if there is recess.

    Recess is due for half term I think?

    Speaker might think the people of Rushholme or ANO Manchester seat deserve representation.

    The power of the Speaker to move a writ during recess is very limited see:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06609/SN06609.pdf

    It has only been used when MPs have been awarded peerages or have died. Can't see Starmer granting a Manchester MP a peerage, so for this route to work, Andy would need to be in league with the Grim Reaper.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533
    HYUFD said:

    'Politics UK understands around 1,600 new members have joined Labour since last Thursday

    The vast majority cited support for Keir Starmer as the reason'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054620202155778065?s=20

    To join in on a leadership election more like!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533
    Andy_JS said:

    Ed is favourite to be "next permanent chancellor of the exchequer" with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253381184

    It is quite damning of Reeves that her name is never mentioned as next PM. Usually CoE is pole position.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    RochdalePioneers said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You make these bold statements with no evidence

    Tactical voting may well come into play, and no tory would vote Plaid but you did !!!!!
    Only as I always use my vote, I had voted for all 4 Tory candidates but had 6 votes and Labour and the LDs did not stand, had they stood I would have voted for them for my last 2 votes over Plaid
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    1 more Green MP doesn't make a difference, but stopping Burnham helps keep Labour down
    I would certainly vote for Burnham and Labour over the Greens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,534
    edited May 13
    HYUFD said:

    'Politics UK understands around 1,600 new members have joined Labour since last Thursday

    The vast majority cited support for Keir Starmer as the reason'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054620202155778065?s=20

    I fear that's a typo for

    "Politics UK understands around 1,500 Labour councillors lost their jobs last Thursday.

    The vast majority cited lack of support for Keir Starmer as the reason."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278
    Herner_Werzog said:

    rottenborough said:

    There's been talk that Starmer could just make sure the writ isn't moved for a by-election in any kind of meaningful time.

    But the Speaker can move the writ if there is recess.

    Recess is due for half term I think?

    Speaker might think the people of Rushholme or ANO Manchester seat deserve representation.

    The power of the Speaker to move a writ during recess is very limited see:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06609/SN06609.pdf

    It has only been used when MPs have been awarded peerages or have died. Can't see Starmer granting a Manchester MP a peerage, so for this route to work, Andy would need to be in league with the Grim Reaper.
    Thanks.

    Seems Andy B will have to become bankrupt asap.

    Shame New Labour never built the super casinos.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,675
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    2026 Generic Congressional Vote

    🔵Democrats: 48.9%
    🔴Republicans: 42.3%

    Democrats’ 6.6-point generic ballot lead is their largest of this cycle in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average.

    https://x.com/RCPolling/status/2054598142876655974?s=20

    There is other polling significantly ahead of that.
    It's hard to judge what is really going on from US polls as they have no equivalent of the BPC and just about anybody can set up shop. I do get the impression though that DJT is under water and dragging the GOP down with him.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 798
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    I don’t
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278

    Ben Walker
    @BNHWalker
    ·
    37m
    Rusholme and Withington, real battles that could go either way. Perhaps the greatest throw of the dice in modern British political history. But does the Labour movement have the balls for it?

    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2054646666532131238
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 8,001
    HYUFD said:

    Would Britons vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest?

    Remain: 25% (-8 from 11 May 2023)
    Leave: 24% (+12)
    Would not vote: 40% (-5)

    Reform voters most in favour of leaving

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2054592699638931735?s=20

    The wasn't a column for Dont give a fuck..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    ThomasNashe said:

    I'd have thought the last thing Galloway would want to do is help Labour/ Burnham win the seat. I think he'd want to stand aside and advise his supporters to vote Green.

    Nah the hard left is a very factionalist place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    ThomasNashe said:

    I'd have thought the last thing Galloway would want to do is help Labour/ Burnham win the seat. I think he'd want to stand aside and advise his supporters to vote Green.

    Nah the hard left is a very factionalist place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    Vance is clearly planning to have Trump impeached.

    Under President Trump, we are unleashing the most aggressive federal anti-fraud efforts in American history. We won't rest until we root out every bit of fraud infecting our government and screwing over taxpayers.
    https://x.com/JDVance/status/2054348259208876329

    Unless he's a lying sack of shit, of course.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,934
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ed is favourite to be "next permanent chancellor of the exchequer" with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253381184

    It is quite damning of Reeves that her name is never mentioned as next PM. Usually CoE is pole position.
    Damning. But not remotely surprising.

    Her Cabinet term ends the day Starmer's does.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    Andy_JS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    As this turns to shit I can only say this; Starmer could have prevented all this

    How could he have?
    Accepted the verdict of last Thursday and laid out a timetable for his resignation
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,534
    HYUFD said:

    Would Britons vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest?

    Remain: 25% (-8 from 11 May 2023)
    Leave: 24% (+12)
    Would not vote: 40% (-5)

    Reform voters most in favour of leaving

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2054592699638931735?s=20

    Fun fact:

    In last night's Eurovision semi-final, Boy George of Culture Club fame represented San Marino.

    Unfortunately, he failed to qualify for Saturday's grand final!

    The second semi-final is tomorrow night.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533
    HYUFD said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    1 more Green MP doesn't make a difference, but stopping Burnham helps keep Labour down
    I would certainly vote for Burnham and Labour over the Greens
    You don't live in Rusholme though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You make these bold statements with no evidence

    Tactical voting may well come into play, and no tory would vote Plaid but you did !!!!!
    Only as I always use my vote, I had voted for all 4 Tory candidates but had 6 votes and Labour and the LDs did not stand, had they stood I would have voted for them for my last 2 votes over Plaid
    You still voted Plaid
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    I would have thought a more middle class public sector worker heavy seat would be better for Burnham. Surely they can see the most advantageous places from the local election results. Are there really that many willing to stand down in his place?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico

    @KemiBadenoch is fab in the Commons. Best Party leader in the Commons since Hague.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2054614123384590767
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,210
    Ratters said:

    I reckon they should elect a Raynor-Miliband ticket.

    Raynor as the more charismatic figure, as well as being the first female Labour PM.

    Miliband I think is far more capable at policy and governing. He can be Chancellor and drive much of the policy agenda.

    The Ange/Ed dream ticket as proposed weeks ago by Ed Miliband himself.

    It is interesting that neither Raynor nor Miliband seem over-eager to become Prime Minister, and I think we saw something similar on the Conservative side too a couple of years ago. Such is the pressure from intrusive press and offensive social media comment, allied perhaps to a sense of impotence in a world lurching from crisis to crisis sown by the superpowers, that the bloom has come off the rose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,278
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I can see some Reform and Tory supporters in Rusholme voting for the Greens since neither of those parties stands a chance of winning.

    No Tory is ever going to vote for the Marxist Polanski and his party and no Reform vote will vote for uber woke Polanski's party either
    You really don’t understand the voters, do you?
    I know Tory and Reform voters despise the Polanski Greens far more than they hate Burnham
    A few in your circle maybe but that is anecdotal
    As Ben Walker says - it's gonna be a real roll of the dice for Burnham.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Our recent polling of Muslims in areas with a high concentration of British Muslims - which included Manchester Rusholme - showed almost half would vote tactically for a Green candidate to keep out Labour.

    https://x.com/IGMansfield/status/2054658375279857870
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    rottenborough said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico

    @KemiBadenoch is fab in the Commons. Best Party leader in the Commons since Hague.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2054614123384590767

    Err has he forgotten Dave.
  • vinovino Posts: 217
    ThomasNashe said:

    I'd have thought the last thing Galloway would want to do is help Labour/ Burnham win the seat. I think he'd want to stand aside and advise his supporters to vote Green.

    Would Galloway run?
    He didn't in Gorton & Denton and instantly Greens became the favourites.
    Reform & the Tories stand no chance in Rusholme so if I was a Reform voter there I would vote Green - all depends on the Workers Party of Britain
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