I woke up really early, I think at about three. The first thing I thought about was my clothes, which I’d neglected to bring in
It was raining hard, and somehow seemed to be raining harder under my clothes than above them; they were saturated. I knew that I had to get back to sleep and work it out in the morning, but I kept waking up worrying
When I finally got up at about six, it was still hammering down. I got myself coffee and figured that I’d have to spin my clothes in the washing machine, then take them to a laundrette to dry them
I didn’t want to wake up the chess players, so I had to wait. It was still raining hard so I waited until nearly eight. The spin finished as the rain lightened, so I headed for the laundrette
It was an outdoor public one, under a little shelter, about a mile out of the way. So I didn’t really start walking the right way until nearly ten
The weather improved and I made quite good progress considering the start. When I arrived in La Porge I realised that most of the restaurants were closed, including Chez Pussy which I’d obviously hoped to visit
I got to the Hotel La Porge at the far end of town and was most relieved to see that their restaurant was open. Except it wasn’t..
The lovely lady at reception, who I think was running the place, told me I had to have an advance order for the restaurant
But after some sweet talking I was served dinner in jars. I had pâté de campagne for starters, and a rather nice turkey hotpot for main. And a couple of very good glasses of local vin
I had a good chat with her and she promised to make me a coffee early in the morning, so I could leave before breakfast started in the morning
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
Until just now I have posted it all of three times in 13 hours. Maybe Just twice. Not exactly a barrage
I expected a boost to Reform post the locals purely on the basis that the reporting that they'd done so well would probably cause a few people who had checked out to become interested in them again. I am surprised the Greens are so high, even if they were likely to get a smaller boost for similar reasons, but just MOE so nothing to it.
The LDs doing ok, but being ignored, could likely explain a dip for them if it were not also MOE.
The risk for Labour (in particular) is that after today’s omnishambolic bollocks a lot more people will think “what the hell, Farage cannot be worse”
Reform then become the ultimate protest party for a Protestant nation. Farage becomes a kind of Cromwell with Yusuf as Halifax and my prose works as the New Model Army defeating the Prince Rupert of Wokeness at the Naseby of No Stop With The Fucking Metaphors Now
Then we execute the Charles 1 of “change” outside the Banqueting House of the Bond markets
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
On the upside if there's any councillors or other officials with pending investigations or suspensions they are probably getting overlooked or shelved whilst MPs are in crisis mode.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Only if they can get anti Reform tactical voting, which isn't very likely while Starmer remains PM as at present he is even more unpopular than Farage
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
That should give you hope. Courage, my friend. We can do this. We can get Big Nigel into power
Not very different to the NEV share. And wasn't Reform's NEV share higher last year? I can also tell you that from my experience in Wales there will be anti Reform tactical voting.
They came second in Wales, totally supplanting Labour
I think they will be happy with that. Indeed avoiding actual government means they can carp from the opposition benches - ideal for a full assault on national power in 28-29
Reform actually did better in Wales on NEV than GB wide last week, 29% to 26% GN wide and 16% in Scotland
The point though is that Reform are currently benefitting from the left vote being split between different parties. 4 if you include Scotland and Wales.
One of only five pubs to appear in every edition of the CAMRA Good Beer Guide. The wooden arrangement in the background should allow you to guess its name.
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
That should give you hope. Courage, my friend. We can do this. We can get Big Nigel into power
Not very different to the NEV share. And wasn't Reform's NEV share higher last year? I can also tell you that from my experience in Wales there will be anti Reform tactical voting.
They came second in Wales, totally supplanting Labour
I think they will be happy with that. Indeed avoiding actual government means they can carp from the opposition benches - ideal for a full assault on national power in 28-29
Reform actually did better in Wales on NEV than GB wide last week, 29% to 26% GN wide and 16% in Scotland
The point though is that Reform are currently benefitting from the left vote being split between different parties. 4 if you include Scotland and Wales.
To an extent but the Tories are also splitting the rightwing vote now, while Reform now are winning most of the 2019 Boris voters, the Tories are still holding onto most of their 2024 Rishi voters
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
That should give you hope. Courage, my friend. We can do this. We can get Big Nigel into power
Not very different to the NEV share. And wasn't Reform's NEV share higher last year? I can also tell you that from my experience in Wales there will be anti Reform tactical voting.
They came second in Wales, totally supplanting Labour
I think they will be happy with that. Indeed avoiding actual government means they can carp from the opposition benches - ideal for a full assault on national power in 28-29
Reform actually did better in Wales on NEV than GB wide last week, 29% to 26% GN wide and 16% in Scotland
The point though is that Reform are currently benefitting from the left vote being split between different parties. 4 if you include Scotland and Wales.
To an extent but the Tories are also splitting the rightwing vote now, while Reform now are winning most of the 2019 Boris voters, the Tories are still holding onto most of their 2024 Rishi voters
Total left of centre votes still looks higher than right of centre combined. In spite of a very unpopular left of centre government.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Although also the districts and unitaries where Reform start on 0 (barring defectors)
I'm pleased that my initial assessment of the noname MP jumping the gun was correct. It has helped Starmer stay in place for the foreseeable future. Labour just can't do regicide. Totally incapable. It took Brown almost 2 years of plotting before he finally got Blair to stand down and if not for Iraq I think he would have taken Labour to a third straight victory in 2009 after telling Brown to go fuck himself.
They really needed to wait until early 2028 to do this, yes that means more council losses and demoralised activists but it also shows they gave him 4 years to prove himself and the public would forgive a knifing a year out from the election as well as putting enough distance between their leadership drama and the Tory dramas of 2016-2024 where we had 5 different PMs.
In all this what we've learned is that the potential replacements for Starmer are just as useless or worse. I actually think that Labour currently have the best person for the job which is more a reflection on how poor the talent pool is than anything about Starmer because he's completely shit.
My guess is that he'll brazen this out for a few weeks, let it all die down and hope the news cycle moves on then shuffle out Streeting and bring back Rayner.
So they're looking to suspend Burnham for what? Organising MP's to sign a letter saying they don't want a contest now? Quite, quite mad if true. Andy Burnham'll end up being the first Green PM at the rate things are going.
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
He referred to that, but made the point that Blair wasn’t really forced out of office by his own troops in the same way that Johnson, Truss and now possibly Starmer were.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
He referred to that, but made the point that Blair wasn’t really forced out of office by his own troops in the same way that Johnson, Truss and now possibly Starmer were.
I think that’s stretching it a bit. Blair would not have gone if the pressure from Brown and his coterie wasn’t there.
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
Sources in Downing St say Attorney General Richard Hermer is looking at whether, in the light of today, Labour’s NEC can suspend Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham for 1) conduct prejudicial or grossly detrimental to Party; 2) disrepute; 3) factionalism; or 4) undermining unity.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
He referred to that, but made the point that Blair wasn’t really forced out of office by his own troops in the same way that Johnson, Truss and now possibly Starmer were.
I think that’s stretching it a bit. Blair would not have gone if the pressure from Brown and his coterie wasn’t there.
Agreed. Blair was forced out, no question. He enjoyed being prime minister and - with some justification- felt he was better at it than Brown would ever be. He left reluctantly. They all leave reluctantly
It was a slow ejection but he was still ejected
Labour are fucking delusional if they think the voters aren’t noticing all of this. And making decisions thereby. They have - inter alia - destroyed all their arguments against the Tories that related to Liz Truss. Because this is worse than Truss. Interest rates have spiked ever higher than during the Trussterfuck
Etc etc
Meanwhile the Tories did at least dump Truss. Starmer remains like some rotting fish behind the radiator
Quite remarkable goings on in Scotland. Clyde playing Hamilton in the playoffs. Clyde at home in the first leg. Which is being played at New Douglas Park. Which is/was the home of Hamilton who they ground share with. Hamilton will be at home in the second leg. Which will be played at Broadwood the home of Clyde for 26 years after moving from their own ground last year in a dispute with the owner.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
In the case of Blair, he set out a timetable for his departure that wasn't quite the one he had originally intended. I don't think that's the same as being 'forced out.'
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
David Cameron.
Harold Wilson?
Yup Harold Wilson, was a bit of a trick question.
Technically Harold Wilson was leading in the polls when he lost the 1970 general election.
I'm pleased that my initial assessment of the noname MP jumping the gun was correct. It has helped Starmer stay in place for the foreseeable future. Labour just can't do regicide. Totally incapable. It took Brown almost 2 years of plotting before he finally got Blair to stand down and if not for Iraq I think he would have taken Labour to a third straight victory in 2009 after telling Brown to go fuck himself.
They really needed to wait until early 2028 to do this, yes that means more council losses and demoralised activists but it also shows they gave him 4 years to prove himself and the public would forgive a knifing a year out from the election as well as putting enough distance between their leadership drama and the Tory dramas of 2016-2024 where we had 5 different PMs.
In all this what we've learned is that the potential replacements for Starmer are just as useless or worse. I actually think that Labour currently have the best person for the job which is more a reflection on how poor the talent pool is than anything about Starmer because he's completely shit.
My guess is that he'll brazen this out for a few weeks, let it all die down and hope the news cycle moves on then shuffle out Streeting and bring back Rayner.
Another advantage of 2028 is Burnham is up for reelection then. As I understand it, if he resigns within 6 months of May 2028 then no by election needed for the Mayoral role (the deputy just fills the position in the interim).
Markets also won't care much about a more fiscally irresponsible leader being in place for a maximum of 12 months - there's only so much real world impact they can have. They will look through it to the next election.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
I think the the third place winners are back up in 2028. The metros are on a four year cycle with a fallow first year.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
David Cameron.
Harold Wilson?
Yup Harold Wilson, was a bit of a trick question.
Technically Harold Wilson was leading in the polls when he lost the 1970 general election.
What about in 1976? What was the polling like then?
One of only five pubs to appear in every edition of the CAMRA Good Beer Guide. The wooden arrangement in the background should allow you to guess its name.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
Quite remarkable goings on in Scotland. Clyde playing Hamilton in the playoffs. Clyde at home in the first leg. Which is being played at New Douglas Park. Which is/was the home of Hamilton who they ground share with. Hamilton will be at home in the second leg. Which will be played at Broadwood the home of Clyde for 26 years after moving from their own ground last year in a dispute with the owner.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
David Cameron.
Harold Wilson?
Churchill?
That was 71 years ago.
Attlee of course was forced to reign despite winning the popular vote in 1951, if we take it back 75 years.
One of only five pubs to appear in every edition of the CAMRA Good Beer Guide. The wooden arrangement in the background should allow you to guess its name.
Looks very Dorset. No idea of the name.
Very Good.
It's the Square & Compass at Worth Matravers.
I was thinking of Kimmeridge but wasn’t sure if there is still a pub there. But has that look of the coast and sea about it.
Quite remarkable goings on in Scotland. Clyde playing Hamilton in the playoffs. Clyde at home in the first leg. Which is being played at New Douglas Park. Which is/was the home of Hamilton who they ground share with. Hamilton will be at home in the second leg. Which will be played at Broadwood the home of Clyde for 26 years after moving from their own ground last year in a dispute with the owner.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
That should give you hope. Courage, my friend. We can do this. We can get Big Nigel into power
Not very different to the NEV share. And wasn't Reform's NEV share higher last year? I can also tell you that from my experience in Wales there will be anti Reform tactical voting.
They came second in Wales, totally supplanting Labour
I think they will be happy with that. Indeed avoiding actual government means they can carp from the opposition benches - ideal for a full assault on national power in 28-29
Reform actually did better in Wales on NEV than GB wide last week, 29% to 26% GN wide and 16% in Scotland
The point though is that Reform are currently benefitting from the left vote being split between different parties. 4 if you include Scotland and Wales.
To an extent but the Tories are also splitting the rightwing vote now, while Reform now are winning most of the 2019 Boris voters, the Tories are still holding onto most of their 2024 Rishi voters
Total left of centre votes still looks higher than right of centre combined. In spite of a very unpopular left of centre government.
No, the Tories and Reform are level with Labour, the LDs and Greens on 45% each and of course that ignores the fact the LDs governed with the Tories for 5 years. The Labour and Green combined vote is only 32%, Corbyn 2019 levels
As Lewis Goodall pointed out on LBC earlier, a Labour leader hasn’t been forced out for a hundred years or so.
Was it that long ago that Brown evicted Blair?
The reason I don't include Blair in my list of leaders forced out is that he was going to stand down anyway, and he wasn't forced out immediately like Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss were.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
David Cameron.
Harold Wilson?
Yup Harold Wilson, was a bit of a trick question.
Technically Harold Wilson was leading in the polls when he lost the 1970 general election.
What about in 1976? What was the polling like then?
Generally behind in the polls, there was one poll right before he quit that had Labour ahead by 7% but it was an outlier (and I think was more down to Jim Callaghan about to become PM.)
One of only five pubs to appear in every edition of the CAMRA Good Beer Guide. The wooden arrangement in the background should allow you to guess its name.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
I think the the third place winners are back up in 2028. The metros are on a four year cycle with a fallow first year.
Up next year in Bradford. Last year was the fallow year.
As far as I'm aware all of the met boroughs are on the same cycle.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
I think the the third place winners are back up in 2028. The metros are on a four year cycle with a fallow first year.
Up next year in Bradford. Last year was the fallow year.
As far as I'm aware all of the met boroughs are on the same cycle.
The cycle restarts after an all up election, usually due to boundary changes.
Russia has launched 59 kinzhal missiles at Ukraine since the middle of last year.
58 of them have been diverted by Ukraine's electronic warfare measures. Remarkable.
Is it as remarkable as Boy George guesting on San Marino's Eurovision entry?
I doubt Boy Geoge can now sing "I'm a man without conviction" with a straight face. After he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for falsely imprisoning a male escort...
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Also a chance for Labour to lose every single ward in Wigan again.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
I can actually. I have lost all faith in the left of centre parties. But Reform are trending downwards. The left's bigger problem is that it is split more ways than the right is. But tactical voting can address that.
That should give you hope. Courage, my friend. We can do this. We can get Big Nigel into power
Not very different to the NEV share. And wasn't Reform's NEV share higher last year? I can also tell you that from my experience in Wales there will be anti Reform tactical voting.
They came second in Wales, totally supplanting Labour
I think they will be happy with that. Indeed avoiding actual government means they can carp from the opposition benches - ideal for a full assault on national power in 28-29
Reform actually did better in Wales on NEV than GB wide last week, 29% to 26% GN wide and 16% in Scotland
The point though is that Reform are currently benefitting from the left vote being split between different parties. 4 if you include Scotland and Wales.
To an extent but the Tories are also splitting the rightwing vote now, while Reform now are winning most of the 2019 Boris voters, the Tories are still holding onto most of their 2024 Rishi voters
Total left of centre votes still looks higher than right of centre combined. In spite of a very unpopular left of centre government.
No, the Tories and Reform are level with Labour, the LDs and Greens on 45% each and of course that ignores the fact the LDs governed with the Tories for 5 years. The Labour and Green combined vote is only 32%, Corbyn 2019 levels
Would the Lib Dems go into government under Reform. And SNP/Plaid must be worth 4%.
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Also a chance for Labour to lose every fucking ward in Wigan again.
Language please, this site is for refined political commentators not Reform voters or Angela Rayner supporters
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Also a chance for Labour to lose every fucking ward in Wigan again.
Language please, this site is for refined political commentators not Reform voters or Angela Rayner supporters
That's me telt. You're right. Have edited. Apologies for being overly annoyed. Being a Wiganer I am normally a Labour voter. But under extreme pressure my inner Reform voter floods out like projectile vomit
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Also a chance for Labour to lose every fucking ward in Wigan again.
Language please, this site is for refined political commentators not Reform voters or Angela Rayner supporters
Upcoming "mega El Niño" raising alarms around the world -- and now in the Washington Post -- comparing to the 1877 event that "wiped out 4% of the Earth's population"
Prepare now for the potential of the "worst environmental disaster in human history"
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Upcoming "mega El Niño" raising alarms around the world -- and now in the Washington Post -- comparing to the 1877 event that "wiped out 4% of the Earth's population"
Prepare now for the potential of the "worst environmental disaster in human history"
The 1877 event led to UK's 1879 infamous wet summer - a total disaster for uk farming with widespread v low yields and crop failure.
Brace.
This is at the same time as the Indian government has told farmers to halve their use of fertiliser - with an obvious knock-on impact to crop yields - due to shortages following the war in Iran.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Croutons from the very first Caesar salad? (Made in Mexico, I believe...)
Upcoming "mega El Niño" raising alarms around the world -- and now in the Washington Post -- comparing to the 1877 event that "wiped out 4% of the Earth's population"
Prepare now for the potential of the "worst environmental disaster in human history"
103 districts with all seats, 44 districts with 1/3 seats, 35 Unitary authorities all seats, 14 Unitary with 1/3 seats.
Tees Valley will be 100% Reform unless things rapidly change.
Labour were 4th in the 2025 locals on seats won behind Reform, the Tories and LDs on similar seats up as mostly up next year (with no London elections either in 2027). If they go in with Starmer still as PM they could end up 5th on seats won behind the Greens too
Next year the third place winners in the metro boroughs that were all out thiscyear will be defending their seats.
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
I think the the third place winners are back up in 2028. The metros are on a four year cycle with a fallow first year.
Up next year in Bradford. Last year was the fallow year.
As far as I'm aware all of the met boroughs are on the same cycle.
The cycle restarts after an all up election, usually due to boundary changes.
We have elections in Bradford next year, then the following year, then it is the fallow year.
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Coral from one of the islands where the US marines slogged it to the death with the Japanese Imperial Army?
Russia has launched 59 kinzhal missiles at Ukraine since the middle of last year.
58 of them have been diverted by Ukraine's electronic warfare measures. Remarkable.
Is it as remarkable as Boy George guesting on San Marino's Eurovision entry?
I doubt Boy Geoge can now sing "I'm a man without conviction" with a straight face. After he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for falsely imprisoning a male escort...
Perhaps change the lyrics. ‘I’m a man, with a conviction’
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Croutons from the very first Caesar salad? (Made in Mexico, I believe...)
That’s wrong BUT it is actually and weirdly close to the truth
Someone missed an opportunity to do a Heseltine and storm out of the cabinet meeting when Starmer refused to let them speak on the leadership question.
May be they remembered how that worked out for Hezza?
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Have you actually been out in the sunshine all day, or have you just been inside, downing the booze and trying to snare the rest of us into sharing your admiration for your own tacky Nick Nacks that you’ve acquired to try and make your bedsit a bit more interesting?
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Have you actually been out in the sunshine all day, or have you just been inside, downing the booze and trying to snare the rest of us into sharing your admiration for your own tacky Nick Nacks that you’ve acquired to try and make your bedsit a bit more interesting?
Upcoming "mega El Niño" raising alarms around the world -- and now in the Washington Post -- comparing to the 1877 event that "wiped out 4% of the Earth's population"
Prepare now for the potential of the "worst environmental disaster in human history"
As I pointed out yesterday you are being far too optimistic. Based on the NEV from the local elections the centre right might stumble to a majority at the next election. And that is mid term with a very unpopular Prime minister.
I get it. You too can’t cope with the idea, emotionally
Have you ever thought of engaging with an argument rather than just insulting the poster? It’s what intelligent people actually do. I say this knowing that, if you reply at all, you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
OK I’ll give you a fun picture quiz instead
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Coral from one of the islands where the US marines slogged it to the death with the Japanese Imperial Army?
Comments
2) Who would make them feel best about themselves?
The answers are not necessarily the same, but people can fool themselves than 2) = 1).
I woke up really early, I think at about three. The first thing I thought about was my clothes, which I’d neglected to bring in
It was raining hard, and somehow seemed to be raining harder under my clothes than above them; they were saturated. I knew that I had to get back to sleep and work it out in the morning, but I kept waking up worrying
When I finally got up at about six, it was still hammering down. I got myself coffee and figured that I’d have to spin my clothes in the washing machine, then take them to a laundrette to dry them
I didn’t want to wake up the chess players, so I had to wait. It was still raining hard so I waited until nearly eight. The spin finished as the rain lightened, so I headed for the laundrette
It was an outdoor public one, under a little shelter, about a mile out of the way. So I didn’t really start walking the right way until nearly ten
The weather improved and I made quite good progress considering the start. When I arrived in La Porge I realised that most of the restaurants were closed, including Chez Pussy which I’d obviously hoped to visit
I got to the Hotel La Porge at the far end of town and was most relieved to see that their restaurant was open. Except it wasn’t..
The lovely lady at reception, who I think was running the place, told me I had to have an advance order for the restaurant
But after some sweet talking I was served dinner in jars. I had pâté de campagne for starters, and a rather nice turkey hotpot for main. And a couple of very good glasses of local vin
I had a good chat with her and she promised to make me a coffee early in the morning, so I could leave before breakfast started in the morning
So a chance for Labour to claw back some of this year's losses.
That's the hope in our ward, for example.
Reform then become the ultimate protest party for a Protestant nation. Farage becomes a kind of Cromwell with Yusuf as Halifax and my prose works as the New Model Army defeating the Prince Rupert of Wokeness at the Naseby of No Stop With The Fucking Metaphors Now
Then we execute the Charles 1 of “change” outside the Banqueting House of the Bond markets
On the upside if there's any councillors or other officials with pending investigations or suspensions they are probably getting overlooked or shelved whilst MPs are in crisis mode.
Moldova's is the best song for me, of what I've heard.
They really needed to wait until early 2028 to do this, yes that means more council losses and demoralised activists but it also shows they gave him 4 years to prove himself and the public would forgive a knifing a year out from the election as well as putting enough distance between their leadership drama and the Tory dramas of 2016-2024 where we had 5 different PMs.
In all this what we've learned is that the potential replacements for Starmer are just as useless or worse. I actually think that Labour currently have the best person for the job which is more a reflection on how poor the talent pool is than anything about Starmer because he's completely shit.
My guess is that he'll brazen this out for a few weeks, let it all die down and hope the news cycle moves on then shuffle out Streeting and bring back Rayner.
Organising MP's to sign a letter saying they don't want a contest now?
Quite, quite mad if true.
Andy Burnham'll end up being the first Green PM at the rate things are going.
They really should…
Edit - just seen that this was answered.
A political saddo recently asked me.
In the last 60 years only two Prime Ministers have resigned whilst leading in the polls.
Can PBers name them?
I got one of them straight away.
It was a slow ejection but he was still ejected
Labour are fucking delusional if they think the voters aren’t noticing all of this. And making decisions thereby. They have - inter alia - destroyed all their arguments against the Tories that related to Liz Truss. Because this is worse than Truss. Interest rates have spiked ever higher than during the Trussterfuck
Etc etc
Meanwhile the Tories did at least dump Truss. Starmer remains like some rotting fish behind the radiator
Clyde playing Hamilton in the playoffs.
Clyde at home in the first leg. Which is being played at New Douglas Park. Which is/was the home of Hamilton who they ground share with.
Hamilton will be at home in the second leg. Which will be played at Broadwood the home of Clyde for 26 years after moving from their own ground last year in a dispute with the owner.
Harold Wilson?
Technically Harold Wilson was leading in the polls when he lost the 1970 general election.
Doesn't bear thinking about.
Markets also won't care much about a more fiscally irresponsible leader being in place for a maximum of 12 months - there's only so much real world impact they can have. They will look through it to the next election.
It's the Square & Compass at Worth Matravers.
https://www.squareandcompasspub.co.uk/
you’re just going to make some tired comment about my intelligence to sooth your narcissism, social anxiety, and general emotional insecurity. So win win really.
Attlee of course was forced to reign despite winning the popular vote in 1951, if we take it back 75 years.
There was the odd outlier.
58 of them have been diverted by Ukraine's electronic warfare measures. Remarkable.
As far as I'm aware all of the met boroughs are on the same cycle.
Better than Serbian Death Metal!
You're right.
Have edited.
Apologies for being overly annoyed.
Being a Wiganer I am normally a Labour voter. But under extreme pressure my inner Reform voter floods out like projectile vomit
https://x.com/_tomscotson/status/2054297224729833839
Ryan Maue
@RyanWeather
Upcoming "mega El Niño" raising alarms around the world -- and now in the Washington Post -- comparing to the 1877 event that "wiped out 4% of the Earth's population"
Prepare now for the potential of the "worst environmental disaster in human history"
https://wapo.st/4d43jSC
https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2054187677746897086
====
The 1877 event led to UK's 1879 infamous wet summer - a total disaster for uk farming with widespread v low yields and crop failure.
Brace.
This dull green grey pebbly stuff in a Georgian silver salt cellar, in my flat, is actually exceptional. Why?
Clue: elsewhere on this shelf I have a medieval crossbow bolt, some musket balls from Edgehill, a few bullets from the Somme, and an arrowhead from Karahan Tepe, found by me (also nestled in Georgian salt cellars)
Firstly, props to TSE for the fabulous pun in the header. Excellent work, sir.
Secondly, how the actual fuck have they managed to foul this up so epically?
We are mega-fucked.
Looks like a vintage Eurovision. So much crazy variety. What were Greece thinking?
Edit: or kidney stones?
'Hanta's coming to town.'