I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%. (That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
The whole MO of this govt seems to be about announcing goals, etc but doing nothing or reversing other things. I'm basically saying it's shambolic.
It is. What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
1) You can tax and spend in a balanced manner - your borrowing costs will be low. Markets don't have a problem with this, though your growth projections will be lower. 2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this 3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina 4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Kemi effect must stop outside the M25 as on the South Coast they have had major losses. My very safe Conservative seat looks gone now as well as neighbouring Tory seats.
Our conservative am was returned to the Senedd and there is a long way to go to 2029
Good for him but overall the Welsh Conservatives only got 10% of the vote and 7 Conservative seats, their worst Senedd or Welsh Assembly result ever
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
Just remember folks that 1% is roughly £30bn a year. Not immediately but over time. It’s a hell of a lot of money to find when there are so many things to do with the pittance we have.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Kemi effect must stop outside the M25 as on the South Coast they have had major losses. My very safe Conservative seat looks gone now as well as neighbouring Tory seats.
Our conservative am was returned to the Senedd and there is a long way to go to 2029
Good for him but overall the Welsh Conservatives only got 10% of the vote and 7 Conservative seats, their worst Senedd or Welsh Assembly result ever
Why do you say good for him ?
Janet Finch Saunders is a very popular and hard working am and a woman !!!!!
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
How is it going relative to say the EU - because there are external (Iran) factors in play here as well as local ones.
France is around 3.6 and Germany around 3.0 compared to the UKs 5.0 % .
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
An answer to the question that doesn't answer the actual question - so lets' be clearer since Feb 28th how much have our bonds risen and how much have they risen for say France / Italy / Germany.
I’m trying to see this from Streetings pov. If Burnham gets back his chances of being PM ever are massively diminished. It’s not as if Burnham is an old fogie. Would he even get a major job from Burnham? I don’t get the impression that they are particularly matey.
OTOH he has a serious job right now. The UK state is not much more than a health service with a pensions office these days. Other than maybe Chancellor ( and that depends on the occupant as Reeves shows) there isn’t a bigger job in government, short of PM. Does he really want to give that up?
It’s a tough call. He runs the risk he misses his chance and Starmer sacks him anyway. Sacking people is Starmer’s idea of action, after all. My guess is that he will duck it. But he may regret that for the rest of his career.
Would be nice, whilst they are having their internal issues, the govt could get on with agreeing funds for defence projects. As per the article below and elsewhere UK defence companies are in limbo and deciding whether they need to quit the UK, the next Gen jet is at risk and we are getting further behind getting the military up to scratch.
I’m convinced Starmer and Reeves would do anything not to have to spend on defence as it’s not in their worldview but they need to crack on with this now.
It’s a particularly sharp example but it’s also a part of the general picture. We had this with the last government, an obsession with internal politics and positioning when there was actually a country to run. We are seeing it again now. Months of dithering while the King over the water takes the slow train to Westminster is really not what the country needs.
I honestly get the gut feel that Starmer/Reeves are still hoping something comes along to remove the urgent need to throw money at defence. I’m sure Starmer is hoping somehow the Ukraine war ends and he can hide behind that.
The crazy thing is that these innovative defence companies are all potential growth streams for the country and so backing them should be worthwhile in multiple respects.
Something won't come along.
It's quite simple; we're staring at a once in a generation opportunity for defence businesses, and we've already missed the starting gun.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Kemi effect must stop outside the M25 as on the South Coast they have had major losses. My very safe Conservative seat looks gone now as well as neighbouring Tory seats.
The Tories still won most seats in Hampshire, so it stretches a bit along in parts but yes the Tories were overall trounced in Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and Surrey, Sussex and Wales and lost 6 seats in Birmingham and lost 19 seats in Scotland (though they held most of their Holyrood constituency seats). In Harlow they made gains but that was mainly down to the excellent council leader Dan Swords more than Kemi
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
The reason for that is the belief that, if Gordon Brittas goes, his successor will use spending to rebuild the Labour coalition.
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
How is it going relative to say the EU - because there are external (Iran) factors in play here as well as local ones.
France is around 3.6 and Germany around 3.0 compared to the UKs 5.0 % .
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
5.5% for twenty year borrowing. EU countries can borrow from the defence loan facility for thirty or forty years.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
not looking too good. Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Even if Farage survives the next two/three years- and given he plays as fast and loose with the truth as Polanski, that is far from a given- the vagaries of FPTP means that the chances of concentrating the Reform vote sufficient to win hundreds of new seats is a very long shot indeed. People will vote differently in elections that matter, and the general election will see a much weaker percentage for Reform versus the Conservatives.
Although most of the Lib Dems are not going to pushed out of the blue wall - massive majorities incoming in the seats they hold- the Tories can really only improve of 2024. So the Tories will probably still hold LOTO, After the next election, with Farage either a busted flush, or too old anyway, then the reunification of the right might then take place, until it does, the government will be Left/left of centre, with maybe three or even four parties propping up Labour. Electoral reform will be front and centre in such a case.
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
Just remember folks that 1% is roughly £30bn a year. Not immediately but over time. It’s a hell of a lot of money to find when there are so many things to do with the pittance we have.
Yup PSND just crossed £2.9trn, 94% of GRP, and will be over £3trn by the end of the year.
It might be curtains for Starmer anyway. If I was him I would block Burnham and dare them to trigger the leadership election. Let the entitled shits bring down the first Labour Government in 14 years just because Andy Burnham chose to be on the outside when Government seemed a distant prospect. It won't do him any good.
Maybe it's just that Thatcher and Blair were the freaks and the system chews up and spits out Prime Ministerial authority after 2-3 years. (Dave was protected by the coalition, but forced into a stupid referendum pledge after three.)
If so, is that a problem and is there an answer?
Macmillan, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, even John Major also all lasted longer than 3 years as PM, it is just Brexit unleashed constant waves if populist backlash against what the government of the day proposed or did if it was remotely difficult but unpopular
Or did social media unleash both Brexit and constant populist discontent?
Heath and Callaghan only lasted 4 and 3 years respectively and faced much populist discontent in the 1970s as did Wilson who only lasted 2 years in his second stint as PM but there wasn't social media then no
Point of order. Wilson's resignation came as a huge surprise. I remember the news breaking at school. The teachers were shocked. There was not much idea, at least amongst the general public, that it might happen.
I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%. (That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
The whole MO of this govt seems to be about announcing goals, etc but doing nothing or reversing other things. I'm basically saying it's shambolic.
It is. What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
1) You can tax and spend in a balanced manner - your borrowing costs will be low. Markets don't have a problem with this, though your growth projections will be lower. 2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this 3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina 4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
Those are the choices.
No, those are broad principles. The choices are much harder.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Kemi effect must stop outside the M25 as on the South Coast they have had major losses. My very safe Conservative seat looks gone now as well as neighbouring Tory seats.
Our conservative am was returned to the Senedd and there is a long way to go to 2029
Good for him but overall the Welsh Conservatives only got 10% of the vote and 7 Conservative seats, their worst Senedd or Welsh Assembly result ever
Why do you say good for him ?
Janet Finch Saunders is a very popular and hard working am and a woman !!!!!
Good for her, doesn't change the fact the Tories had their worst Senedd result ever
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
The technological and strategic factors are moving more quickly than they can move the photos of rugged looking squaddies around in the .docx
A lot of vaches sacrées/wastes of money/cherished national institutions should be going in the bin but SKS has neither the political capital nor the courage required to do it.
That is also true, and likely the only way that the UK government can start to square the funding circle is to chuck some programs in the bin.
The problem is that there aren't enough things that can be dispensed with in order to fund everything else. An increase in defence spend is necessary simply in order to avoid losing a large slice of our defence industry. Once gone, we won't get it back.
Lots of it should go. There just isn't the industrial capacity to sustain everything while delivering appropriate systems quickly. That's why it's going to take HMS Glasgow 18 years to go from contract award to commissioning. Hence running the T23s way past their design life until the few that are left barely float.
GCAP will be exactly the same. Years late and massively over-budget to the great detriment of actual defence capability.
I remember somebody from Air Command commenting in the 90s when Eurofighter was pulled back from the brink, "The good news is we've saved BAE, the bad news is we'll have keep saving it."
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
Just remember folks that 1% is roughly £30bn a year. Not immediately but over time. It’s a hell of a lot of money to find when there are so many things to do with the pittance we have.
IIRC the UK defence budget is something like the size of the US Marine Corp. While they have an advantage of leveraging the procurement of the other services, the disparity of what we achieve is pretty severe.
Quite simply, as with much public spending, we get less for our money than many peer nations.
We need to up our game in public procurement. To start with - contracts.
Lost in the all the nonsense about 4 star hotels for migrants is this - that the government ended up paying premium prices for block booking run down hotels for years. Why did we not get better prices? In fact, often , some simple calculations suggest it would have been cheaper to buy the properties outright.
We need purchasing skills in government that we don't currently possess. A Ministry of Supply? If Tesco can construct a special negotiating facility where they browbeat their suppliers into lower prices, why doesn't the government have one. Staffed with well trained civil service negotiators, who live for this stuff.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
not looking too good. Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Even if Farage survives the next two/three years- and given he plays as fast and loose with the truth as Polanski, that is far from a given- the vagaries of FPTP means that the chances of concentrating the Reform vote sufficient to win hundreds of new seats is a very long shot indeed. People will vote differently in elections that matter, and the general election will see a much weaker percentage for Reform versus the Conservatives.
Although most of the Lib Dems are not going to pushed out of the blue wall - massive majorities incoming in the seats they hold- the Tories can really only improve of 2024. So the Tories will probably still hold LOTO, After the next election, with Farage either a busted flush, or too old anyway, then the reunification of the right might then take place, until it does, the government will be Left/left of centre, with maybe three or even four parties propping up Labour. Electoral reform will be front and centre in such a case.
If massive anti Reform tactical voting then yes the 27% NEV Reform got last week certainly won't give Reform a majority and may not even give them most seats and a Labour minority government in a hung parliament is likely. Without anti Reform tactical voting though the left and liberal vote split between Labour, the Greens and LDs in England and the fact Reform has overtaken the Tories as the main party of the right means Reform almost certainly wins most seats with big gains from Labour and some from the Tories on less than 30% and even has an outside chance of a majority if both Labour and the Tories fail to exceed 20%.
As long as Starmer stays PM most voters seem to even prefer Farage to him so won't tactically vote Labour to beat Reform, though if Burnham or Streeting was Labour leader anti Reform tactical votes for Labour would likely surge
I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%. (That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
The whole MO of this govt seems to be about announcing goals, etc but doing nothing or reversing other things. I'm basically saying it's shambolic.
It is. What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
1) You can tax and spend in a balanced manner - your borrowing costs will be low. Markets don't have a problem with this, though your growth projections will be lower. 2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this 3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina 4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
Those are the choices.
No, those are broad principles. The choices are much harder.
And of course, if you want to Rejoin, guess what you will have to do?
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We were out on our walk at 6 today and it was cold. Up towards Glenshee there was snow on the hills. It really doesn’t feel like mid May.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
I really don't get the this guy went to a Taylor Swift concert on a free invite and to punish this corruption I'll go for the one who took £5m from overseas crypto king and didn't declare it vibe. Seems to be popular though!
I’m trying to see this from Streetings pov. If Burnham gets back his chances of being PM ever are massively diminished. It’s not as if Burnham is an old fogie. Would he even get a major job from Burnham? I don’t get the impression that they are particularly matey.
OTOH he has a serious job right now. The UK state is not much more than a health service with a pensions office these days. Other than maybe Chancellor ( and that depends on the occupant as Reeves shows) there isn’t a bigger job in government, short of PM. Does he really want to give that up?
It’s a tough call. He runs the risk he misses his chance and Starmer sacks him anyway. Sacking people is Starmer’s idea of action, after all. My guess is that he will duck it. But he may regret that for the rest of his career.
Would be nice, whilst they are having their internal issues, the govt could get on with agreeing funds for defence projects. As per the article below and elsewhere UK defence companies are in limbo and deciding whether they need to quit the UK, the next Gen jet is at risk and we are getting further behind getting the military up to scratch.
I’m convinced Starmer and Reeves would do anything not to have to spend on defence as it’s not in their worldview but they need to crack on with this now.
It’s a particularly sharp example but it’s also a part of the general picture. We had this with the last government, an obsession with internal politics and positioning when there was actually a country to run. We are seeing it again now. Months of dithering while the King over the water takes the slow train to Westminster is really not what the country needs.
I honestly get the gut feel that Starmer/Reeves are still hoping something comes along to remove the urgent need to throw money at defence. I’m sure Starmer is hoping somehow the Ukraine war ends and he can hide behind that.
The crazy thing is that these innovative defence companies are all potential growth streams for the country and so backing them should be worthwhile in multiple respects.
Something won't come along.
It's quite simple; we're staring at a once in a generation opportunity for defence businesses, and we've already missed the starting gun.
Yeah, Defence should be a huge opportunity for UK industry. I don't get it how we're somehow now shouting loudly to our JEF allies and others that we will be very happy to make stuff for them.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
How is it going relative to say the EU - because there are external (Iran) factors in play here as well as local ones.
France is around 3.6 and Germany around 3.0 compared to the UKs 5.0 % .
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
The BoE interest rate being one and a half percent higher than the ECB interest rate presently is why Eurozone countries have generally lower gilt rates.
On the contrary, the existence of a difference between German and Greek gilts despite identical interest rates shows you that ECB support is not absolute or a greek haircut is possible or that the risk of Greece leaving the euro is non-zero.
Labour MP Paula Barker tells the BBC her party could avoid "a load of chaos" if Starmer steps aside.
We will be back here in mid 2027. Whoever takes over won't be any more popular given the economic fallout from the Iran war has yet to hit but is pretty inevitable.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since May 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Kemi effect must stop outside the M25 as on the South Coast they have had major losses. My very safe Conservative seat looks gone now as well as neighbouring Tory seats.
Our conservative am was returned to the Senedd and there is a long way to go to 2029
Good for him but overall the Welsh Conservatives only got 10% of the vote and 7 Conservative seats, their worst Senedd or Welsh Assembly result ever
Why do you say good for him ?
Janet Finch Saunders is a very popular and hard working am and a woman !!!!!
Good for her, doesn't change the fact the Tories had their worst Senedd result ever
They were overshadowed by Labour who relatively speaking did far, far worse.
Kemi smashed it on Thursday despite the overall results, whether we like it or not.
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
The reason that they disappointed from the off was that they successfully sold the idea that “austerity “ was a Tory choice they did not have to make. They tried to get around it by the £22bn black hole but firstly that is a relatively trivial sum and secondly they saw the books. It didn’t fly.
So many people believed money was magically going to flow to their pet causes. It’s frustrating both for them and for those who knew better.
It might be curtains for Starmer anyway. If I was him I would block Burnham and dare them to trigger the leadership election. Let the entitled shits bring down the first Labour Government in 14 years just because Andy Burnham chose to be on the outside when Government seemed a distant prospect. It won't do him any good.
Maybe it's just that Thatcher and Blair were the freaks and the system chews up and spits out Prime Ministerial authority after 2-3 years. (Dave was protected by the coalition, but forced into a stupid referendum pledge after three.)
If so, is that a problem and is there an answer?
Macmillan, Churchill, Attlee, Wilson, even John Major also all lasted longer than 3 years as PM, it is just Brexit unleashed constant waves if populist backlash against what the government of the day proposed or did if it was remotely difficult but unpopular
Or did social media unleash both Brexit and constant populist discontent?
Heath and Callaghan only lasted 4 and 3 years respectively and faced much populist discontent in the 1970s as did Wilson who only lasted 2 years in his second stint as PM but there wasn't social media then no
Point of order. Wilson's resignation came as a huge surprise. I remember the news breaking at school. The teachers were shocked. There was not much idea, at least amongst the general public, that it might happen.
Wilson had the self-awareness tp know that he was 'ill' ...... experiencing the early signs of dementia. So he resigned.
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since Theresa May was leader in 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Yes, London was unexpectedly good for the Conservatives and they were close to winning in Barnet, Enfield and Wandsworth missing out by odd seats.
To make net gains overall was an achievement though with the caveats they were trounced in south west London and Havering. 321 of the 407 Conservative Councillors elected on Thursday are in ten Boroughs - of the others, twelve Boroughs have just 86 Conservative Councillors and in the other ten Boroughs no Conservatives at all.
In essence, the Conservatives, like the Liberal Democrats, are becoming marginalised into areas of strength and reduced elsewhere.
It's also worth noting more than half of all the Conservative seats won on Thursday (407 of 801) were in London while the rest of the country (and you can spin this however you like) saw more heavy losses.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since Theresa May was leader in 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Yes, London was unexpectedly good for the Conservatives and they were close to winning in Barnet, Enfield and Wandsworth missing out by odd seats.
To make net gains overall was an achievement though with the caveats they were trounced in south west London and Havering. 321 of the 407 Conservative Councillors elected on Thursday are in ten Boroughs - of the others, twelve Boroughs have just 86 Conservative Councillors and in the other ten Boroughs no Conservatives at all.
In essence, the Conservatives, like the Liberal Democrats, are becoming marginalised into areas of strength and reduced elsewhere.
It's also worth noting more than half of all the Conservative seats won on Thursday (407 of 801) were in London while the rest of the country (and you can spin this however you like) saw more heavy losses.
More importantly. There are large areas of the country where they are no longer in any meaningful existence. Their vote share is buttons and a sizeable way fourth or fifth place. Majority government is a long, long way off.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%. (That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
The whole MO of this govt seems to be about announcing goals, etc but doing nothing or reversing other things. I'm basically saying it's shambolic.
It is. What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
1) You can tax and spend in a balanced manner - your borrowing costs will be low. Markets don't have a problem with this, though your growth projections will be lower. 2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this 3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina 4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
Those are the choices.
No, those are broad principles. The choices are much harder.
I agree that the choices within those choice are harder, but the broad choices themselves are not only principles but facts. And to go constantly for a version of (3) is a mistake.
And we know it is dangerous because all governments keep trying to delude the simple minded by confusing things like debt and deficit. Stephen Kinnock tried to tell Andrew Neil (Times Radio) last week that our debt was falling. Which was quite funny.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
The reason that they disappointed from the off was that they successfully sold the idea that “austerity “ was a Tory choice they did not have to make. They tried to get around it by the £22bn black hole but firstly that is a relatively trivial sum and secondly they saw the books. It didn’t fly.
So many people believed money was magically going to flow to their pet causes. It’s frustrating both for them and for those who knew better.
I don't quite agree.
The pledge on income tax and VAT was part of the "Ming Vase" strategy but that works only when the economy is in good shape and the public finances are sound.
By committing to Clarke's spending plans for the first two years, Blair and Brown completely neutralised the old Conservative argument that Labour would put up taxes. Starmer and Reeves were clearly terrified any commitment to raise taxes would send millions of wavering voters back to the blue rosette.
With hindsight, giving themselves the freedom to act on taxes by breaking their pledge would probably have been no worse than what has happened since.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
The reason that they disappointed from the off was that they successfully sold the idea that “austerity “ was a Tory choice they did not have to make. They tried to get around it by the £22bn black hole but firstly that is a relatively trivial sum and secondly they saw the books. It didn’t fly.
So many people believed money was magically going to flow to their pet causes. It’s frustrating both for them and for those who knew better.
I don't quite agree.
The pledge on income tax and VAT was part of the "Ming Vase" strategy but that works only when the economy is in good shape and the public finances are sound.
By committing to Clarke's spending plans for the first two years, Blair and Brown completely neutralised the old Conservative argument that Labour would put up taxes. Starmer and Reeves were clearly terrified any commitment to raise taxes would send millions of wavering voters back to the blue rosette.
With hindsight, giving themselves the freedom to act on taxes by breaking their pledge would probably have been no worse than what has happened since.
Apart from they only got 33% with a pledge of financial probity. It seems reasonable to suspect they would have been sub 30s otherwise which probably wouldn't have been a majority.
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
I'm at a loss as to which one of Bozo, Truss, Sunak and Starmer did a decent job?
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
I was being charitable to Sunak who did his best but the horse was already over the hill and the stable door was slamming in the breeze.
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
The reason that they disappointed from the off was that they successfully sold the idea that “austerity “ was a Tory choice they did not have to make. They tried to get around it by the £22bn black hole but firstly that is a relatively trivial sum and secondly they saw the books. It didn’t fly.
So many people believed money was magically going to flow to their pet causes. It’s frustrating both for them and for those who knew better.
I don't quite agree.
The pledge on income tax and VAT was part of the "Ming Vase" strategy but that works only when the economy is in good shape and the public finances are sound.
By committing to Clarke's spending plans for the first two years, Blair and Brown completely neutralised the old Conservative argument that Labour would put up taxes. Starmer and Reeves were clearly terrified any commitment to raise taxes would send millions of wavering voters back to the blue rosette.
With hindsight, giving themselves the freedom to act on taxes by breaking their pledge would probably have been no worse than what has happened since.
They should have just come out and said the inheritance was much worse than we feared, we’re putting up taxes for this reason and be done with it.
They could have made a values argument for Labour then which probably would have worked.
But they tried to be too clever and did it in other ways.
And then winter fuel.
This government was screwed - again in hindsight - almost as soon as they decided to do “everything is going to get a lot worse”.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
There's an obvious way to get Burnham into Parliament.
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
Makes sense to at least offer the Party that option.
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
Kemi certainly isn't a drag on the Tories in London, the Tories had their best London results last week in terms of seats won since Theresa May was leader in 2018 and made gains in areas like Westminster and Barnet and Hillingdon where they lost parliamentary seats at the last general election. In the rest of the country though she isn't making many waves
Yes, London was unexpectedly good for the Conservatives and they were close to winning in Barnet, Enfield and Wandsworth missing out by odd seats.
To make net gains overall was an achievement though with the caveats they were trounced in south west London and Havering. 321 of the 407 Conservative Councillors elected on Thursday are in ten Boroughs - of the others, twelve Boroughs have just 86 Conservative Councillors and in the other ten Boroughs no Conservatives at all.
In essence, the Conservatives, like the Liberal Democrats, are becoming marginalised into areas of strength and reduced elsewhere.
It's also worth noting more than half of all the Conservative seats won on Thursday (407 of 801) were in London while the rest of the country (and you can spin this however you like) saw more heavy losses.
More importantly. There are large areas of the country where they are no longer in any meaningful existence. Their vote share is buttons and a sizeable way fourth or fifth place. Majority government is a long, long way off.
Indeed, though on the Sky News NEV last week Kemi and the Tories would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament with Reform winning most seats
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
How is it going relative to say the EU - because there are external (Iran) factors in play here as well as local ones.
France is around 3.6 and Germany around 3.0 compared to the UKs 5.0 % .
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
The BoE interest rate being one and a half percent higher than the ECB interest rate presently is why Eurozone countries have generally lower gilt rates.
On the contrary, the existence of a difference between German and Greek gilts despite identical interest rates shows you that ECB support is not absolute or a greek haircut is possible or that the risk of Greece leaving the euro is non-zero.
And the main reasons we have higher base rates is that this country has a stronger tendency to inflation than most, particularly when the engine of house price inflation bleeds into domestic demand. So the BoE needs to keep a lid on house prices.
We also have far more freedom than countries in the EZ do and the markets are scared that irresponsible politicians will use it.
Both factors together give governments very few options, far less than they are willing to admit.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
Tho it might also explain the lingering fondness of @Dura_Ace for the Greens
Is that any worse than a champagne socialist with a villa in Tuscany?
You could argue that owning a gas guzzler, built by a company that has publicly rejected going EV, is a direct attack on the proclaimed values of his party.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
How is it going relative to say the EU - because there are external (Iran) factors in play here as well as local ones.
France is around 3.6 and Germany around 3.0 compared to the UKs 5.0 % .
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
The BoE interest rate being one and a half percent higher than the ECB interest rate presently is why Eurozone countries have generally lower gilt rates.
On the contrary, the existence of a difference between German and Greek gilts despite identical interest rates shows you that ECB support is not absolute or a greek haircut is possible or that the risk of Greece leaving the euro is non-zero.
And the main reasons we have higher base rates is that this country has a stronger tendency to inflation than most, particularly when the engine of house price inflation bleeds into domestic demand. So the BoE needs to keep a lid on house prices.
We also have far more freedom than countries in the EZ do and the markets are scared that irresponsible politicians will use it.
Both factors together give governments very few options, far less than they are willing to admit.
Made worse by having a government whose economic strategy appears to be reduce supply, increase taxes, reduce output, increase prices, increase welfare.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
Also, has anyone been watching the bonds market? I know that they prefer Reeves to potential alternatives, but they're still putting the rate up. And up. And up.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
Just remember folks that 1% is roughly £30bn a year. Not immediately but over time. It’s a hell of a lot of money to find when there are so many things to do with the pittance we have.
IIRC the UK defence budget is something like the size of the US Marine Corp. While they have an advantage of leveraging the procurement of the other services, the disparity of what we achieve is pretty severe.
Quite simply, as with much public spending, we get less for our money than many peer nations.
We need to up our game in public procurement. To start with - contracts.
Lost in the all the nonsense about 4 star hotels for migrants is this - that the government ended up paying premium prices for block booking run down hotels for years. Why did we not get better prices? In fact, often , some simple calculations suggest it would have been cheaper to buy the properties outright.
We need purchasing skills in government that we don't currently possess. A Ministry of Supply? If Tesco can construct a special negotiating facility where they browbeat their suppliers into lower prices, why doesn't the government have one. Staffed with well trained civil service negotiators, who live for this stuff.
Salaries. Anyone who is any good is working for the supplier, not the Civil Service.
I wonder if he'll get around to announcing funding for the defence review ?
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%. (That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
The whole MO of this govt seems to be about announcing goals, etc but doing nothing or reversing other things. I'm basically saying it's shambolic.
It is. What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
1) You can tax and spend in a balanced manner - your borrowing costs will be low. Markets don't have a problem with this, though your growth projections will be lower. 2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this 3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina 4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
Those are the choices.
No, those are broad principles. The choices are much harder.
I agree that the choices within those choice are harder, but the broad choices themselves are not only principles but facts. And to go constantly for a version of (3) is a mistake.
And we know it is dangerous because all governments keep trying to delude the simple minded by confusing things like debt and deficit. Stephen Kinnock tried to tell Andrew Neil (Times Radio) last week that our debt was falling. Which was quite funny.
If Team Starmer thinks that those extracts are going to prove enticing, they have seriously misjudged things. AGAIN.
It is just typical Starmer word soup, no real content, just words
That won't save him.
We just need this to be over. For the country, for Labour and for him.
To be this beleagured cannot be easy to bear. Even if he tries to deluded himself that he has a future, deep down he must know that he has no future.
A long, bitter retirement beckons.
Speeches tend to be just words.
He needs a big policy announcement. Wealth tax, pr, join the single market, it is go big or go home time.
But there's no manifesto commitment to any of those, the Lords will strike all of them down and he doesn't have the political capital to ram any of them through the commons multiple times without it being killed by a thousand cuts.
If policy was popular with Lab MPs he would be fine getting it through commons. If a budget measure lords can't block.
So I guess that points to a wealth tax plus (and this is important) some kind of tax cut to help with cost of living crisis.
A really bold strategy would be a full council tax revaluation. Or its abolition and replacement with local income tax.
It would have many losers but I suspect in the Labour areas it would have many more winners.
It would be Reform areas that would be the biggest winners.
Council tax is equivalent to 0.5% of property wealth in aggregate. Even if you increased it to a flat 1%, a majority of households would get a cut, and that cut would be enormous in places like Teesside, where the current rate can be as high as 5% depending on band.
There was a lot of crap spouted on PB about people not caring about the WWC over the weekend. Well, this is the kind of policy that could hugely improve livelihoods in those areas, along with abolishing energy standing charges, quadrupling bus services (back to 2010 levels) and so on.
So why has no one done it or advocated for it, if they care so much about these areas ?
Because it would upset those who lose out and there’s no political courage to do it.
The problem with a council tax revaluation is that the manpower to actually do a revaluation doesn't exist.
the fix has to be based on sale prices attached to removal of stamp duty - but for Labour to see the benefit of that they needed to kick it off in August 2024 for implementation in April 2028..
If they did it now you would be looking at 2030 at the earliest.
And ?
There’s always an excuse not to do something. Typical public sector mentality. Do it anyway if it’s the right thing to do.
-2.2C at the vineyard last night and likely colder tonight. Coldest May night since I started recording in 2022. That probably means well over 50% crop loss, depending on how much the cold was concentrated at the bottom of the slope (there the weather station is).
This fucking weather is abominable
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
We're used to it up here. Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
It’s a short food trip. Lots of tastings, breweries, foraging, etc
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
This whole insane short video captures the moral decline, cultural disaster and political incoherence of the YooKay
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
Comments
2) You can tax and not spend, with a budget surplus - rare. Markets will like this
3) You can not tax and keep spending. Markets don't like this. You become Argentina
4) You can not tax and not spend - not sure that this has been tried since... forever? Markets would probably be OK with this
Those are the choices.
LMACO (pronounced El-Mac-O)
Labour MPs Always Chicken Out
Janet Finch Saunders is a very popular and hard working am and a woman !!!!!
Steal land from Frenchmen and chase them into a swamp - you get Blues played on the accordion.
I’m off on assignment to Northumberland on Wednesday
🥶🥶
It's quite simple; we're staring at a once in a generation opportunity for defence businesses, and we've already missed the starting gun.
EU countries can borrow from the defence loan facility for thirty or forty years.
Although most of the Lib Dems are not going to pushed out of the blue wall - massive majorities incoming in the seats they hold- the Tories can really only improve of 2024. So the Tories will probably still hold LOTO,
After the next election, with Farage either a busted flush, or too old anyway, then the reunification of the right might then take place, until it does, the government will be Left/left of centre, with maybe three or even four parties propping up Labour.
Electoral reform will be front and centre in such a case.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance
Wilson's resignation came as a huge surprise. I remember the news breaking at school. The teachers were shocked.
There was not much idea, at least amongst the general public, that it might happen.
The choices are much harder.
Blyth, Seaton Delaval or Ashington fine dining?
The problem for the current Government is they have never really got past the initial sense of disappointment, the sense for all they talked about being "different", they were just as bad as the Conservatives in terms of taking gifts, accepting free tickets, and the like.
After the pandemic, there was clearly a mood in the public for extreme transparency. No one objects to the Prime Minister attending a national event like the Cup Final or the Derby but to go to a Taylor Swift contest given the ticket prices beyond the reach of most fans didn't sit well. It looked vaguely triumphalist but worse, it simply looked as though one corrupt elite was being replaced by another and that looked worse givben the many and varied problems the country faces.
That in turn cemented the view the Conservatives and Labour were two cheeks of the same arse and has legitimised new parties such as Reform and the Greens (neither of whom, let's face it, are paragons of virtue and probity) to prosper on the simple message "we're not like the Uniparty".
The irony is, I suspect most backbench MPs are hard working types who are trying to do their best for their constituents.
GCAP will be exactly the same. Years late and massively over-budget to the great detriment of actual defence capability.
I remember somebody from Air Command commenting in the 90s when Eurofighter was pulled back from the brink, "The good news is we've saved BAE, the bad news is we'll have keep saving it."
Quite simply, as with much public spending, we get less for our money than many peer nations.
We need to up our game in public procurement. To start with - contracts.
Lost in the all the nonsense about 4 star hotels for migrants is this - that the government ended up paying premium prices for block booking run down hotels for years. Why did we not get better prices? In fact, often , some simple calculations suggest it would have been cheaper to buy the properties outright.
We need purchasing skills in government that we don't currently possess. A Ministry of Supply? If Tesco can construct a special negotiating facility where they browbeat their suppliers into lower prices, why doesn't the government have one. Staffed with well trained civil service negotiators, who live for this stuff.
As long as Starmer stays PM most voters seem to even prefer Farage to him so won't tactically vote Labour to beat Reform, though if Burnham or Streeting was Labour leader anti Reform tactical votes for Labour would likely surge
I was really looking forward to it. I love Northumberland and I love these foodie things. But it will be less fun if it’s minus 5 and blowing a hoolie
I’m apparently staying in a place called Tempus. Which seems quite chic for The Far North. Alnwick
https://thetempus.co.uk/
On the contrary, the existence of a difference between German and Greek gilts despite identical interest rates shows you that ECB support is not absolute or a greek haircut is possible or that the risk of Greece leaving the euro is non-zero.
Kemi smashed it on Thursday despite the overall results, whether we like it or not.
So many people believed money was magically going to flow to their pet causes. It’s frustrating both for them and for those who knew better.
To make net gains overall was an achievement though with the caveats they were trounced in south west London and Havering. 321 of the 407 Conservative Councillors elected on Thursday are in ten Boroughs - of the others, twelve Boroughs have just 86 Conservative Councillors and in the other ten Boroughs no Conservatives at all.
In essence, the Conservatives, like the Liberal Democrats, are becoming marginalised into areas of strength and reduced elsewhere.
It's also worth noting more than half of all the Conservative seats won on Thursday (407 of 801) were in London while the rest of the country (and you can spin this however you like) saw more heavy losses.
It'll be a balmy 12° and as much as 4° overnight.
T-shirt weather.
Ah well. I shall overdose on the local liquors to stay warm
Woe betide anyone who fancied a late spring break to Croatia...
Majority government is a long, long way off.
And we know it is dangerous because all governments keep trying to delude the simple minded by confusing things like debt and deficit. Stephen Kinnock tried to tell Andrew Neil (Times Radio) last week that our debt was falling. Which was quite funny.
The pledge on income tax and VAT was part of the "Ming Vase" strategy but that works only when the economy is in good shape and the public finances are sound.
By committing to Clarke's spending plans for the first two years, Blair and Brown completely neutralised the old Conservative argument that Labour would put up taxes. Starmer and Reeves were clearly terrified any commitment to raise taxes would send millions of wavering voters back to the blue rosette.
With hindsight, giving themselves the freedom to act on taxes by breaking their pledge would probably have been no worse than what has happened since.
It was a masterstroke of attack (possibly from the Tories?) to release it when they did.
Crazy - ticked
Sounds like he'll make a good 2020s political leader!
“This is Mohammad Baghdadi "Baggy" Khan reporting to duty as a newly elected Councillor in the Halliwell ward, Bolton. He looks composed in his Lamborghini Huracán Spyder, worth £100,000-£200,000, it does 19-23 mpg.
He is a member of @TheGreenParty.”
https://x.com/daveatherton/status/2053735294432608542?s=46
Tho it might also explain the lingering fondness of @Dura_Ace for the Greens
They could have made a values argument for Labour then which probably would have worked.
But they tried to be too clever and did it in other ways.
And then winter fuel.
This government was screwed - again in hindsight - almost as soon as they decided to do “everything is going to get a lot worse”.
I imagine when it's 40c in London in August everyone will be complaining about the weather - that's what we do.
We also have far more freedom than countries in the EZ do and the markets are scared that irresponsible politicians will use it.
Both factors together give governments very few options, far less than they are willing to admit.
No wonder Labour are in deep doo-doo.
Don’t let him now shift the goal posts.
The so-called insurgent parties are, in large part, seen by their sponsors and candidates as vehicles for grift.
The lack of outrage over Farage's £5m bung is normalising this. We are very much on the slippery road now.
https://www.northumberlandnationalpark.org.uk/discover-explore/things-to-do/discover-dark-skies/
Saw this banner headline when I turned on the BBC news this morning. Thought I'd missed something big overnight.
Genuinely pretty
If this was the Thick of It, 5 cabinet ministers would be launching leadership campaigns in other venues whilst he speaks.....
There’s always an excuse not to do something. Typical public sector mentality. Do it anyway if it’s the right thing to do.
Ker-chinggg
Anyone got recs historical/cultural/gastronomique for the big L?
Am going in, may be some time.
He is the problem not the solution