Will it be a blue Monday for Starmer? Will Labour MPs impose a new order? – politicalbetting.com
Will it be a blue Monday for Starmer? Will Labour MPs impose a new order? – politicalbetting.com
Today seems pivotal for the continued premiership of Sir Keir Starmer with his speech trying to save his job. Labour MPs are in shellshock with everything’s gone Green and Reform.
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Either way, plenty of Confusion.
He's just a talking head, on the road to nowhere.
the fix has to be based on sale prices attached to removal of stamp duty - but for Labour to see the benefit of that they needed to kick it off in August 2024 for implementation in April 2028..
If they did it now you would be looking at 2030 at the earliest.
Or further and faster down the plughole?
Don't play that game. Show them if they want Burnham he has to get in first, and you'll bow to the inevitable and stand down IF he gets back in, not before.
If so, is that a problem and is there an answer?
Deep down, the Left knows Rayner would be a disaster so they can’t risk her.
That would leave them only one other option - Ed Miliband - and how much confidence do they have that he will save their seats?
Whereas if he lets Burnham back he knows he’s definitely finished.
What if Sir Keir says “Sod it. If Andy Burnham wants to be an MP he can run at the General Election. By the way, I’m seeing The King shortly to dissolve Parliament…”
Would Burnham want to run for Parliament knowing he may not be elected? Would he want to run knowing that if elected he may be Leader of the Opposition and face 5 years out of Government? And what if Burnham ran, didn’t win a seat but Labour won reelection because people thought Burnham would become an MP and replace Starmer but Starmer, in fact, remains PM?
It won’t happen. But if it did, we’ll, I’m not really sure when I’d stop laughing.
Although technically the average tenure is probably just over three years.
He wasn’t willing to do the hard yards as in coming back into the Commons without an expectation of just being handed the leadership on a plate .
I'm thinking of Michael Portillo, who became obnoxious in government and then human again after losing his seat.
Mr Burnham is looking at the road not taken and regretting his choice.
I do think that West might row back though. There’ll also have been a whipping operation to get some wavering MPs to come out afterwards and suggest it was better than the Gettysburg Address to try and dampen a challenge.
Burnham’s machinations continue to make him look foolish.
Theory: we mostly leave politics to two groups of people; idealists and those who want their popularity officially validated. The first are hopeless at the tradeoffs that are needed when all the low-hanging fruit has been picked and eaten. The second go bonkers when asked to do anything unpopular but necessary.
Hence, all of this.
Burnham didn't cause this psyshodrama
Starmer has achieved it all on his own
Starmer gets out the Special Podium - and calls an election...
He applied for selection as candidate for Gorton and Denton.
Harder yards running a major City rather than lounging on the back benches at Westminster.
Yougov - Doing well as PM - Starmer 22% yes 70% no. Truss 11% yes 71% no.
If we’re being honest, what could he really announce or do that would be a game changer? I can think of one thing - a rejoin referendum, probably for after the next GE - but that will cause all sorts of unknowns and it’s uncertain quite what the effect will be.
@CorrectHorseBattery said he thought a specific statement was unclear. I disagreed and explained what I thought it meant.
I’m not quite sure why that warranted such an intemperate reply from you
It's been nearly a year now, and some UK defence contractors, particularly the smaller businesses, are planning to (or already have) decamp to the US or Europe, as they can't exist on nothing.
This during a once in a generation opportunity due defence businesses, as Europe rearms while developing new technology.
Which remind me of another Brexit benefit - our partner in GCAP, Italy, can borrow long term from the €150bn European defence loan facility at around 3%.
The UK 20 year gilt yield is nearly double that, at around 5.5%.
(That's what the fantasy scheme to decouple defence spending from UK borrowing requirements was about.)
It's also hugely entitled of Burnham and his pushers, the king over the water, that he's basically the next PM in waiting. Forget that he's currently ineligible, that a sitting MP needs to step aside, that the by-election is a foregone conclusion, that the leadership election is in-the-bag...
I hope he does get a by-election
I hope he loses
I hope Labour also lose the Mayoralty of GM
There’s recently been a rule of thumb among Westminster wags that there’s no situation so bad that a speech by Keir Starmer can’t make it worse. From the overnight briefing of what the PM plans to say at 10:00 this morning that adage looks like being proved again.
‘Strength through fairness’ (meaningless)
‘Putting Britain at the heart of Europe’ (they talk of nothing else at the Dog and Duck).
‘Hope, urgency’ (whatever)
‘Incremental change won’t cut it’ (said it before — so what really big change, rupture do you have in mind?).
Ho hum. Tumbleweed already blowing through Downing Street.
https://x.com/afneil/status/2053730703720796204
My working (betting) hypothesis* is that Kemi is a drag on the Tories (sorry Big G); Polanski is a flash in the pan; and Reform have a ceiling of about 25%-30%. The next government will be a Labour minority with Farage as LOTO. The choice for Labour is who is best placed to face such a LOTO. So if it is Burnham, then call the election now.
*Other theories available over the period to the next GE.
He can't have a boot in both camps.
What the chances she finds Starmer does enough to convince her to back down.
Previously you had to resign after winning a Parliamentary seat now you need to resign before hand
OTOH he has a serious job right now. The UK state is not much more than a health service with a pensions office these days. Other than maybe Chancellor ( and that depends on the occupant as Reeves shows) there isn’t a bigger job in government, short of PM. Does he really want to give that up?
It’s a tough call. He runs the risk he misses his chance and Starmer sacks him anyway. Sacking people is Starmer’s idea of action, after all. My guess is that he will duck it. But he may regret that for the rest of his career.
I am well used to Kemi being underestimated
After last week she is going to surprise on the upside, and at least she can look on with a smile as labour tears itself apart
I can't get too excited about the machinations of the Labour Party when oil remains close to $100 a barrel.
I don't share the general contempt for Starmer though I do share the disappointment. Oddlly enough, three of the last four Prime Ministers, for all they might have coveted the job, have proved completely unfit to do the job once they got it.
In politics, it's fair to say your opponents will always be loud and your friends quiet but what the latter say matters and what the former say doesn't. Reading Sir Graham Brady's excellent book I'm reminded most Prime Ministers initially resolve to fight on, to weather the storm but at some point they either talk to people whose opinion counts or have a personal revelation (or epiphany) and decide for whatever reason it's time to go.
Outside an election, it's incredibly hard to shift a Prime Minister from any party who doesn't want to go so it comes down ultimately to the personal decision and all the ranting and raving from opponents matters much less then the view of a trusted friend.
A lot of vaches sacrées/wastes of money/cherished national institutions should be going in the bin but SKS has neither the political capital nor the courage required to do it.
I suspect we need to go back to Cameron to find someone capable of doing the job, May is close but she created an impossible situation for herself via the Death tax so it's hard to put her in the fit to do the job list.
We now have multiple camps competing for who ends up winning:
BURNHAM: Needs a delay of 4-5 weeks to allow for a byelection to be held
RAYNER: Thinks the tax thing isn't that big an issue now
STREETING: Already declared he'll stand if someone else challenges
MILLIBAND: Encouraged to run as the Stop Streeting candidate
WEST: The horse of stalking
BURGON: Bound to be one of the nutters running and its his turn
Its absolutely possible that Starmer survives a while due to timing issues. But the consensus is a new leader is needed, its just a question of who. So he can say whatever he likes later, they're already past him. And the Kings Speech on Wednesday? If he is having to hastily redraft and redraft the speech tonight then what are they doing for the Kings Speech? Making it up in the back of a car as they drive to parliament?
There aren't many constituencies like that nowadays.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/10/defence-sovereignty-europe-builds-low-cost-weapons-drones
I’m convinced Starmer and Reeves would do anything not to have to spend on defence as it’s not in their worldview but they need to crack on with this now.
Surely what's good for Truss is good for Starmer...
What, though, would you propose to get our borrowing costs down to European levels ?
She claims she might “abandon” the challenge if the speech is amazing but we’ve already seen it and…it’s not.
“Why is the wine standing up?
And why is it in the heat cone from the lamp?”
None of it is wine I’m ever likely to drink. Except maybe a couple of sweets. They can cope. 95% is spirits and sherries and weird beers from Russia, Greenland, Svalbard
There is no heat. LED bulb
Next
Change
Renewal
Fixing the foundations
14 years
£22 billion black hole
Far right
Division
Reform
Farage
Not our war
Brexit
Breakfast clubs
Lifting children out of poverty
What an orator this man is they would be mad to replace him!!
https://www.ft.com/content/99c8774e-e6ba-408a-82a8-9ab8ab5138ff?syn-25a6b1a6=1
This isn't gonna cut the mustard for me. He has to drop the red lines. This is the essence of Starmer's political incompetence. You CANNOT complain about brexit and make deals all the while insisting with your dying breath on red lines. This is political suicide: The brexiteers will hate you for any deal and any complaint about brexit. And the rejoiners will hate you for keeping us out. It is british politics 101: divide and conquer and Starmer just doesn't get it.
For me, the red lines go or Starmer goes. End of story.
The crazy thing is that these innovative defence companies are all potential growth streams for the country and so backing them should be worthwhile in multiple respects.
Even Greek gilts are less at 3.7.
Because of the weight of the ECB as lender of last resort Eurozone countries have generally lower gilts.
It does appear to have passed them by that there’s a lot of conflict in the world right now, military technology in moving forward at an extraordinary pace, and for at least the next couple of years the Americans seem determined to do their own thing irrespective of what their allies think.
Not that the last lot were much better, but pretty much the whole of Europe has been riding on US coat-tails for decades now.
The problem is that there aren't enough things that can be dispensed with in order to fund everything else. An increase in defence spend is necessary simply in order to avoid losing a large slice of our defence industry. Once gone, we won't get it back.