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There is now going to be a Westminster by-election which Labour could win – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,841
    Starmer must have seen Anthony Seldon’s advice about appointing people from the Blair government and taken it seriously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354

    In March 2025, Lammy (as Foreign Secretary) appointed Harriet Harman the UK Special Envoy for Women and Girls. The PM appears to have simply changed her job title

    You have got to be kidding me.

    We've got months of this now until the inevitable ending presumably now whenever Burnham makes it back to Westminister.

    Next week: King's speech - most of which will be torn up by Burnham in six or twelve or so months time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bonkers developments in Downing Street.

    Harriet Harman arrives. Is announced as the PM's new SPAD for Women and Girls.

    Gordon Brown has now arrived.

    Both are true. Not a joke!!!

    The Avengers Reassemble.

    Unfortunately, it's the Hillman Avengers.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillman_Avenger
    Oi !!

    That car is a classic

    Unlike those retreads
    Ah, my mum's first car. It used to regularly overheat and break down on the school run.

    Not a great choice for a nervous driver.
    Very thin tyres too !!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,381

    It all just feels so hollow.

    It’s obvious that Starmer doesn’t have a clue how to win the next election.

    To be fair, nor do any of his potential successors...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,134

    Leon said:

    This is Rishi in the rain with no brolly level stuff....

    It’s worse than that.
    It is. It is far worse than that

    Rishi and the brolly symbolised the inept but inevitable end of a jaded government running out of road. It was a mistake, and it looked sad

    This is a prime minister with a massive majority and three years to go, who keeps making insane unforced errors

    Who the fucking fuck believes that baroness Harman and Gordon Brown are the answer to his problems!?? How tone deaf can you get?
    Rishi was actually making some progress in fixing our problems, despite the missteps.

    That's the real tragedy.
    If he was making progress why did he bail early in a rush?

    The shit was about to hit fan with prisons etc so they hit eject rather than take responsibility.
    To be fair to him, most of that had been set in train well before him.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    If the Greens have Novara Media cheering them on we can be certain they are doomed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    nico67 said:

    I still find it astonishing that not a single member of the media has brought up the structure of Reform.

    Unless there’s a change effectively you cannot remove Farage . If the worst happened and he ended up in No 10 there’s no mechanism for the party to remove him barring a vote of no confidence . And turkeys don’t vote for Christmas .

    Will anyone in the media ask this obvious question ?

    Starmer's gifts from Ali, Rayner's mortgage, Mandelson's ties with Russia, the Telegraph, the Mail and GB News have been all over them. Farage's girlfriends house, 5 million quid from an overseas based crypto billionaire, and "Putin is the most impressive statesman" , not a whisper.
    His Putin apologia (blaming the EU for Ukraine for example) is something I will always hold against him and could not vote for him on that grounds alone, but it has been gone over a lot before, so it is not that surprising it no longer really comes up. He just denies the things he said and their direct implications and people clearly don't give a shit. Granted, as with Corbyn very known things can ultimately come back to suddenly matter again to the public, but I doubt it, he's clever enough to shift his position and pretend he never shifted.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,030
    kle4 said:

    I see Gordon Brown has been made ambassador to the World Bank.

    By whom, and what does an ambassador to the World Bank do?

    What does the World Bank do?

    Asking for the financially illiterate.
    Give us cancer through 5G. Or something
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited May 9

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    Even if that is true, its all fake spin though, Harriet Harperson has already got this role (and nobody cared).

    https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1898302783167582414?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Millions just voted to get Labour councillors out because... checks notes... there's issues around rights of women and girls and the World Bank isn't run as well as it should be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955

    If the Greens have Novara Media cheering them on we can be certain they are doomed.

    They have been interviewing all the Jezza era mob who are now working for the Greens.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,142
    edited May 9
    What the fuck are the cabinet doing? Where are Milliband, Streeting and co?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    Starmer has to do something gargantuan to survive, a complete change of narrative.

    Three options:
    1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
    2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
    3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad

    Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.

    Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.

    Screw it. Roll the dice.
    Agreed. Joining the EU now is a sure winner. Yes we have the Reform and Brexit types but they are now in the minority (by quite a distance). SKS should just go for it! It’s the only hope for him..
    He probably should have gone for it last year as a hail mary (I assumed it was in the long term plans for term 2 etc), but the problem is surely that the EU won't accept the UK as a member right now.

    Not because they wouldn't want us back in, that's just dumb as getting a nation of 70m back in would come with all sorts of benefits. But because the issue is still too raw, and whilst EU sentiment is higher than when the referendum occurred, Brexit support is still too high for the EU to want to risk rerunning the whole argument in another 10-15 years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    If the Greens have Novara Media cheering them on we can be certain they are doomed.

    Labour just need to adopt Green policies and they’re home and dry, it seems according to Novara.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    Another MP has called for Starmer to quit
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited May 9
    Media types seem to be reporting that Labour MPs are texting them going WTF, mental stuff.

    It would be quite funny if Starmer relaunch #45435823 is what actually tips the party move against him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Taz said:

    If the Greens have Novara Media cheering them on we can be certain they are doomed.

    Labour just need to adopt Green policies and they’re home and dry, it seems according to Novara.
    And Owen Jones.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123
    edited May 9

    Another MP has called for Starmer to quit

    Who ?

    Rupert Lowe ?

    Give over with the fucking vague posting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    Starmer must have seen Anthony Seldon’s advice about appointing people from the Blair government and taken it seriously.

    Maybe the idea is to distract the right with some Blair era people, whilst they roar full throated to the left.

    Which is where the larger portion of their former voters wish they were.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    murali_s said:

    What the fuck are the cabinet doing? Where are Milliband, Streeting and co?

    Dentist?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    Media types seem to be reporting that Labour MPs are texting them going WTF, mental stuff.

    It would be quite funny if Starmer relaunch #45435823 is what actually tips the party move against him.

    Like when Mugabe went on TV expected to announce his resignation, but didn't, so the next day it was taken out of his hands.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,498
    Roger said:

    On topic: give over

    That's a nice Lancashire turn of phrase. I went into a hardware shop in Clitheroe and when I changed my mind over the size of nail I wanted said "You're what we in the business call a 'bohemian buggery"

    Also Yorkshire.

    Constantly used by my Sheffield grandparents back in the 60s, 70s, 80s.

    @TSE cannot comment as he lives in Derbyshire.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    Is everybody enjoying the quiet?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    I dare say some Green voters would like well paid public sector non-jobs for themselves.

    They're not going to get them though.

    Which leaves them stuck with the issues of unaffordable housing, crap jobs and student debt they currently have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    kle4 said:

    I see Gordon Brown has been made ambassador to the World Bank.

    By whom, and what does an ambassador to the World Bank do?

    What does the World Bank do?

    Asking for the financially illiterate.
    Give us cancer through 5G. Or something
    I know a place which had a huge anti-5G crowd, posters and leaflets everywhere. Apparently a big issue everyone in town currently moans about is poor mobile coverage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Senior government sources confirm reshuffle is now dead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    So looks like Rayner and Haigh get to stay on the backbenches and wait for Andy.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,960

    This latest move has gone down very badly with the PLP.

    How do you know
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,134
    kle4 said:

    Dopermean said:

    Are we nearing the end?

    Scotland - Reform have replaced the Conservatives, otherwise minor changes
    Wales - Labour wiped out losing support to Plaid, Reform and Greens, Conservatives losing support to Reform

    England - Labour currently 1400+ down, but still second, Reform 1440+ up, LDs 3rd, Cons 4th, Greens 5th

    Compared to the predictions beforehand is the Labour disaster better or worse?
    Likewise Conservatives.
    Lib Dems underwhelming gains?

    I wasn't checking precise predictions beforehand, but my gut is that the Labour result was on par with the worst fears, even as it could really have been even worse.

    The Tories is a mixed picture in that they had some areas hold up ok (or even advance) to give them hope, but were utterly wiped out in others and are clearly now second choice in Wales and Scotland to Reform with no clear way back. So I'd say the initial thought is they did slightly better than expected, but actually it was still really terrible.

    LD gains are underwhelming in the sense if they were the only viable alternative to the big two they'd expect to do a lot better, but they aren't and their actual expectations were probably broadly met.
    The Conservatives seem to have been replaced by Reform in Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk as well
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Senior government sources confirm reshuffle is now dead.

    Starmer is too weak to move anyone right now, even a junior minister being sacked could trigger mass resignations.

    I honestly don't think I've seen a politician this bad, he's even worse than Liz Truss. At least the Tories got rid of her within weeks.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    Taz said:

    Another MP has called for Starmer to quit

    Who ?

    Rupert Lowe ?

    Give over with the fucking vague posting.
    You’re very touchy today Taz, everything okay?

    Tony Vaughan
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Senior government sources confirm reshuffle is now dead.

    Because everything is going so well.

    Because the PM no longer has the power to force his Cabinet to shift around.

    Because they expect a transition in 6 months anyway, so no point.

    Take your pick.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Taz said:

    If the Greens have Novara Media cheering them on we can be certain they are doomed.

    Labour just need to adopt Green policies and they’re home and dry, it seems according to Novara.
    And Owen Jones.
    As quoted on billboards in Iran.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Maybe I am becoming one of those conspiracy people but has Brown been appointed in order to stop him being able to probe and write about Prince Andrew and Epstein?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    Even if that is true, its all fake spin though, Harriet Harperson has already got this role (and nobody cared).

    https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1898302783167582414?s=20
    Re-announcing things is standard practice for government, and everyone else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited May 9

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    Even if that is true, its all fake spin though, Harriet Harperson has already got this role (and nobody cared).

    https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1898302783167582414?s=20
    Re-announcing things is standard practice for government, and everyone else.
    Yeah but it didn't work first time to get the Greenie-curious types on board...and you are literally pissing on all the Northern voters who just kicked in his balls chips as being totally out of touch. Genius political strategy. Its absolutely tone deaf stuff.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    MaxPB said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Senior government sources confirm reshuffle is now dead.

    Starmer is too weak to move anyone right now, even a junior minister being sacked could trigger mass resignations.

    I honestly don't think I've seen a politician this bad, he's even worse than Liz Truss. At least the Tories got rid of her within weeks.
    Is it time to start the Lettuce Counter?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Leon said:

    Bonkers developments in Downing Street.

    Harriet Harman arrives. Is announced as the PM's new SPAD for Women and Girls.

    Gordon Brown has now arrived.

    Both are true. Not a joke!!!

    It’s like a weird pantomime in Hell
    It's remarkable how utterly clueless he is.

    It's like watching someone trying to run a bath by manually emptying water from the cistern into the toilet bowl using tupperware and gently warming with a heating element, before he gets ready to bath his elbow in it.
    That's excellent. May steal
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,841
    Appointing two people with so much baggage shows that Starmer hasn't learnt any lessons from the Mandelson affair. For some young people, the first thing they'll learn about Harriet Harman is that she used to have links to a paedohpile advocacy group.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    Even if that is true, its all fake spin though, Harriet Harperson has already got this role (and nobody cared).

    https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1898302783167582414?s=20
    Re-announcing things is standard practice for government, and everyone else.
    Yeah but it didn't work first time to get the Greenie-curious type on board...and you are literally pissing on all the Northern voters who just kicked in his balls chips as being totally out of touch. Genius political strategy.
    The point of re-announcing things is that the message didn’t get heard the first time.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,058
    Dopermean said:

    Are we nearing the end?

    Scotland - Reform have replaced the Conservatives, otherwise minor changes
    Wales - Labour wiped out losing support to Plaid, Reform and Greens, Conservatives losing support to Reform

    England - Labour currently 1400+ down, but still second, Reform 1440+ up, LDs 3rd, Cons 4th, Greens 5th

    Compared to the predictions beforehand is the Labour disaster better or worse?
    Likewise Conservatives.
    Lib Dems underwhelming gains?

    I was predicting 100 gains for the LibDems based on change in poll share between May 2022 and May 2026.
    It is currently at 151 gains, so pretty good.
    LDs have net gained one Council so now in control in 15 Councils, - more than Conservatives or Reform.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,334
    .
    Icarus said:

    They have been ignored but the Liberal Democrats had a good election - In almost all places they were previously strong Greens or Reform didn't get a look in. if politics is a relay race Sir Ed has run a strong leg and now should hand the baton on. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives the new leader (Daisy Cooper for me) would start from a strong position without a mess to clean up.

    Look at places like Newcastle and Sunderland. Winning all 3 seats in ward after ward after ward. Huge gains in interesting places.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited May 9

    If this is Keith listening to the voters yesterday, I assume that he has been watching a rerun of the 1997 General Election broadcast.

    What has happened in this election? Labour humiliated in Scotland. Eviscerated in Wales, with no members elected at all in their former heartlands represented by giants like Nye Bevan. Labour literally removed from existence in swathes of England, with people voting for the Green Reform horseshoe party to punish beat the in office since the Danelaw lot.

    They are electing literal wife beaters in some cases. More DEI is not what is being asked for by these voters.

    But Labour also lost votes and seats to the Greens (and some of those Reform losses were because they lost votes to the Greens). Maybe more DEI is what Green voters want.
    Even if that is true, its all fake spin though, Harriet Harperson has already got this role (and nobody cared).

    https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1898302783167582414?s=20
    Re-announcing things is standard practice for government, and everyone else.
    Yeah but it didn't work first time to get the Greenie-curious type on board...and you are literally pissing on all the Northern voters who just kicked in his balls chips as being totally out of touch. Genius political strategy.
    The point of re-announcing things is that the message didn’t get heard the first time.
    I confidently predict this will do fuck all to win them back. They want stronger stance on Gaza, faster action on net zero, rent controls, not retread from Blair era with dodgy record when it comes to "protection of women and girls" being reannoucned to the same job as a year ago (and also social media is quickly sharing this is a bullshit announcement, you can't get away with this stuff as easy as in Gordon Brown days of reannouncement of a reannouncement of a reannouncement).
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Gordon Brown has been made ambassador to the World Bank.

    By whom, and what does an ambassador to the World Bank do?

    What does the World Bank do?

    Asking for the financially illiterate.
    Give us cancer through 5G. Or something
    I know a place which had a huge anti-5G crowd, posters and leaflets everywhere. Apparently a big issue everyone in town currently moans about is poor mobile coverage.
    We have had 2 arson attacks on 5G masts in Oxford in recent months
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    https://x.com/alistaircarns/status/2053056826208350647

    This is v good news!

    Al Carns is out then.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    Starmer has to do something gargantuan to survive, a complete change of narrative.

    Three options:
    1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
    2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
    3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad

    Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.

    Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.

    Screw it. Roll the dice.
    Agreed. Joining the EU now is a sure winner. Yes we have the Reform and Brexit types but they are now in the minority (by quite a distance). SKS should just go for it! It’s the only hope for him..
    He probably should have gone for it last year as a hail mary (I assumed it was in the long term plans for term 2 etc), but the problem is surely that the EU won't accept the UK as a member right now.

    Not because they wouldn't want us back in, that's just dumb as getting a nation of 70m back in would come with all sorts of benefits. But because the issue is still too raw, and whilst EU sentiment is higher than when the referendum occurred, Brexit support is still too high for the EU to want to risk rerunning the whole argument in another 10-15 years.
    Plus they'd expect us to swiftly join the euro - to lock us in. That is a very very hard sell in the UK. Plus Schenghen and most of our fishing. Also, any one of the 27 EU nations can veto, unless they get what they want. Gibraltar? The Cyprus bases? United Ireland? Negotiation would be hellish and take ten years and might not even result in a Yes, OK

    That's why IIRC the Spectator article on this theme said Starmer should call the referendum, then win it, then QUIT very quickly, leaving the mess to others, while enjoying the glory, and the praise of idiot Remainers like @Roger and @murali_s who think it will be super simple to Rejoin
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791
    The only way Burnham is getting back to Parliament is if Kemi (just for a laugh) makes him a peer.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 132
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    Starmer has to do something gargantuan to survive, a complete change of narrative.

    Three options:
    1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
    2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
    3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad

    Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.

    Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.

    Screw it. Roll the dice.
    Agreed. Joining the EU now is a sure winner. Yes we have the Reform and Brexit types but they are now in the minority (by quite a distance). SKS should just go for it! It’s the only hope for him..
    He probably should have gone for it last year as a hail mary (I assumed it was in the long term plans for term 2 etc), but the problem is surely that the EU won't accept the UK as a member right now.

    Not because they wouldn't want us back in, that's just dumb as getting a nation of 70m back in would come with all sorts of benefits. But because the issue is still too raw, and whilst EU sentiment is higher than when the referendum occurred, Brexit support is still too high for the EU to want to risk rerunning the whole argument in another 10-15 years.
    Support for rejoining drops as you ask people about losing the pound, freedom of movement and membership fees. Having a prime minister less popular than Nixon after Watergate make the argument to rejoin is perhaps not the best idea. If you want to do this, get Starmer out first.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    .

    Icarus said:

    They have been ignored but the Liberal Democrats had a good election - In almost all places they were previously strong Greens or Reform didn't get a look in. if politics is a relay race Sir Ed has run a strong leg and now should hand the baton on. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives the new leader (Daisy Cooper for me) would start from a strong position without a mess to clean up.

    Look at places like Newcastle and Sunderland. Winning all 3 seats in ward after ward after ward. Huge gains in interesting places.
    They did well in Durham last year out of the three main parties. They headed up the coalition before too.

    If only, nationally, the Lib Dem’s gave a fuck about the North East they could become well established here. However no Gail’s here and only a few Waitrose.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576
    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    To be fair, and thinking this through, that's why he's doing this with Harman and Brown.

    This isn't about the voters - that's gone now - this is about shoring up his position in the Labour movement so he survives the year.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    Yes, because “Change” meant bringing Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman back to advise government (?!)

    WTF?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    This is Rishi in the rain with no brolly level stuff....

    It’s worse than that.
    It is. It is far worse than that

    Rishi and the brolly symbolised the inept but inevitable end of a jaded government running out of road. It was a mistake, and it looked sad

    This is a prime minister with a massive majority and three years to go, who keeps making insane unforced errors

    Who the fucking fuck believes that baroness Harman and Gordon Brown are the answer to his problems!?? How tone deaf can you get?
    Rishi was actually making some progress in fixing our problems, despite the missteps.

    That's the real tragedy.
    If he was making progress why did he bail early in a rush?

    The shit was about to hit fan with prisons etc so they hit eject rather than take responsibility.
    To be fair to him, most of that had been set in train well before him.
    I thought Rishi was OK and doing a decent job. I think the same about Starmer. Neither were very good politicians. The country's problems predate both of them.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    Rejoin is such a bad idea.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446

    It'd be quite funny to see Andy Burnham fail here.

    It would be even funnier if Starmer were to offer him the chance and he was to turn it down
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    To be fair, and thinking this through, that's why he's doing this with Harman and Brown.

    This isn't about the voters - that's gone now - this is about shoring up his position in the Labour movement so he survives the year.
    But i don't see how it works even on that level. He is just irritating - deeply - everyone in his party under 60 years old, or any Labour MP or activist with common sense (a more limited number, but still significant)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,444

    FPT I am disappointed nobody picked up on my subtle Welsh dragon pun in the headline.

    Glad somebody picked up on the 'don't look back in Bangor' one though.

    Your headline had distinct echoes, for me, of Shortly there will be an election ....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463
    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    The guy who does the “thanks for shopping at Tesco” is Rishi Sunak and I cannot unhear it.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429
    edited May 9

    algarkirk said:

    Andrew Marr says Farage will be the PM after the next election. I disagree. May I suggest a little calm amidst the hype, based on these boring thoughts

    1) On Thursday about 73% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform. Almost all hyped up comment has ignored their existence.
    2) Projections of NEV from Thursday's elections gave Reform about a 7 point lead over the next place (Sky, Rallings and Thrasher
    3) Reform got 27% of the vote (NEV) and a 4 point swap between them and the Tories would put (astonishingly) Tories in the lead
    4) Starmer won't be PM at the next election
    5) Reform have peaked from their 35% polling
    6) Farage is widely hated
    6) The Green vote has a strong 'O Jeremy Corbyn' feel about it and is flaky, split between young impressionable and older enthusiastic recyclers
    7) At the next GE the 70%+ non Reform vote will operate tactically
    8) Reform are about 11/4 to get a majority in the next GE.

    You keep on posting something like this, but you don't present much evidence for it.

    Most Tory voters will tactically vote for Reform to stop a Labour or Green victory. Very few Labour or Green voters will vote tactically for a Tory to stop a Reform victory. Your anti-Reform 70+% doesn't exist.

    We know this from the opinion polling and the evidence of by-elections.

    If Reform maintain a lead then FPTP will deliver them a winner's bonus, and it's possible they win a majority on a very low national share of the vote.
    Thanks. All fair points.

    It seems to me that my points 1,2,3,5,6,8 are more or less factual. 4 is massively probable. 7 is a guess or intuition. I never claim that 70%+ is the anti-Reform vote, but that it is the non-Reform vote. My guess is that a substantial number of the 70+% non Reform voters will vote to keep Reform out and that 'who to vote for to keep Reform out in your seat' will be a major industry from 2028 onwards, and will have an effect.

    The reason for making my general point, whether right or wrong, is that extensive coverage of Thursday's elections have almost (except for Wales and Scotland) erased the realities of the 70% voting for Lab, Con, LD, Green and so on. This leads to a mistaken understanding what is going on. Which is 'fragmentation and disillusion - Yes'; 'Reform electorally unsurpassable - No.'

    Guesses about the future (betting relies on these to exist) involves imagining ahead. I imagine that the near prospect of a Reform government will, like being hanged in a fortnight, concentrate minds in quite a different way from this moment.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,878

    Is everybody enjoying the quiet?

    I pop off for an hour and come back to discover that what I thought was a PB gag that everyone had decided to run with is actually a fair representation of what our PM is doing with his Saturday morning.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    Honestly I’m sure it will make no difference but Farage to me comes across so badly when he’s asked about things he doesn’t like. “All I want to talk about is winning the election”.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    ydoethur said:

    FPT I am disappointed nobody picked up on my subtle Welsh dragon pun in the headline.

    Glad somebody picked up on the 'don't look in Bangor' one though.

    It was a drag on the thread.
    That was lloe grrrr.

    Even by your standards of punning
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    mwadams said:

    Is everybody enjoying the quiet?

    I pop off for an hour and come back to discover that what I thought was a PB gag that everyone had decided to run with is actually a fair representation of what our PM is doing with his Saturday morning.
    The Thick of It these days looks like a documentary of sensible joined up goverence in comparison....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    This is Rishi in the rain with no brolly level stuff....

    It’s worse than that.
    It is. It is far worse than that

    Rishi and the brolly symbolised the inept but inevitable end of a jaded government running out of road. It was a mistake, and it looked sad

    This is a prime minister with a massive majority and three years to go, who keeps making insane unforced errors

    Who the fucking fuck believes that baroness Harman and Gordon Brown are the answer to his problems!?? How tone deaf can you get?
    Rishi was actually making some progress in fixing our problems, despite the missteps.

    That's the real tragedy.
    If he was making progress why did he bail early in a rush?

    The shit was about to hit fan with prisons etc so they hit eject rather than take responsibility.
    To be fair to him, most of that had been set in train well before him.
    I thought Rishi was OK and doing a decent job. I think the same about Starmer. Neither were very good politicians. The country's problems predate both of them.
    The personal and political qualities of Little Big Man, although he was the most loathsome specie of LinkedIn wanker, were almost irrelevant by the time he got his size 3 Palm Angels slides under the desk at No. 10. The tories had already given us brexit which turned out to be rubbish, May, Johnson, Truss and a pandemic that was a Ukrainian style masterclass in corruption so the country had had more than enough of the c-nts no matter who was in charge.
  • This is beyond satire.

    So he was going to sack Rachel Reeves because after 22 months her being crap suddenly mattered.

    Now he isn't because it doesn't matter again.

    Does he have confidence in his Chancellor or not ? If he does then why last week did he say he didn't.

    These folk who are wanting him to go, will they be voting against the King's Speech ? Will they not be acting unlawfully if they vote for it ? They will be voting contrary to their consciences and that is unlawful for a councillor but not maybe an MP
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,126
    I’m strongly of the view that if Sunak had taken over after Johnson he’d have done a lot better.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,649

    Good morning

    Stephen Flynn will be missed in the HOC as he was excellent at holding Starmer to account

    There is no 'sugar coating this' seems to be the official speak for labour mps

    Wales ejected labour from the Senedd in a long forecasted result, but to her great credit Eluned Morgan made a gracious resignation speech accepting she had failed to prevent the devastating result

    Compare and contrast that to Starmer who blames everyone else or it didn't pass his desk

    I do not like hate being used towards Starmer, and certainly I do not hate him but just despair at how inept and unsuited he is and if labour allow him to continue they are looking at an existential crisis for their movement

    As for Kemi she is not going to be challenged, and whilst yesterday was poor for the conservatives, she has started the process of recovery and she has 3 years to complete the task

    I would really like to see a head to head between her and Farage as I expect she would show him up for what he is

    Interesting that yesterday and in today's mail Boris has firmly rowed in behind Kemi, which may well trigger some

    We are in different politics now and it is very interesting

    In the meantime I wish Rhun well as our new Plaid First Minister and note that 1 labour and 1 conservative are likely to be Presiding and Deputy Presiding Officers

    I agree with almost everything you posted, with one exception.

    In no way can you describe yesterday as "the process of recovery" for the Conservatives. It was - as you also said - "poor". Catastrophically in many places where they used to be very strong.

    Chatting with NE Tories yesterday they were decidedly glum, and a little bemused by my laughing in the face of disaster mindset.
    The most shocking thing for me in recent months is that I am part of quite a few Tory constituency groups.

    For the past year, every few days somebody gets removed from the various groups.

    Then you find out that in parts of the country a majority of the 2024 Tory activist base have defected to Reform.
    Yep. All prominent local fuckers are ex Tories. Though as the remaining sane nice Tories point out, they have purged themselves of the nutters.

    A note. At several points yesterday I was in a gaggle of LD and Tory activists / councillors. We all agreed that the clear and obvious place for both parties to go shopping is in the traditional centre right and to do so with some big picture reforms of how we do things in this country, wrapped in Cameronism "we're all in this together"

    And another note. Two people - both councillors, one Tory, one LD - suggested the only way to remove the SNP from its vice grip is for there to be an alliance of unionists. Competing with each other to split the no vote just means wall to wall SNP. How we would pull such a thing off is the question...
    in my neck of the woods one of the young tory boy portfolio holders decided to jump ship as he thought he would be running a Reform council from this weekend. As it is he's stuck with a couple of Millwall fans who've decided to give this politics thing a go. Still at least he got elected unlike some of his followers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    My wife and I are off to a wine bar this afternoon.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,340

    Leon said:

    This is Rishi in the rain with no brolly level stuff....

    It’s worse than that.
    It is. It is far worse than that

    Rishi and the brolly symbolised the inept but inevitable end of a jaded government running out of road. It was a mistake, and it looked sad

    This is a prime minister with a massive majority and three years to go, who keeps making insane unforced errors

    Who the fucking fuck believes that baroness Harman and Gordon Brown are the answer to his problems!?? How tone deaf can you get?
    Rishi was actually making some progress in fixing our problems, despite the missteps.

    That's the real tragedy.
    Don't tell us, tell Rishi. He was the one who went to the country six months early. He was the one who deprived us of half a year's extra Conservative rule. He was the one who didn't have the nous to look out the window to see if it was raining.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    How many Labour backbenchers would lose their seats? 250?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,834
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andrew Marr says Farage will be the PM after the next election. I disagree. May I suggest a little calm amidst the hype, based on these boring thoughts

    1) On Thursday about 73% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform. Almost all hyped up comment has ignored their existence.
    2) Projections of NEV from Thursday's elections gave Reform about a 7 point lead over the next place (Sky, Rallings and Thrasher
    3) Reform got 27% of the vote (NEV) and a 4 point swap between them and the Tories would put (astonishingly) Tories in the lead
    4) Starmer won't be PM at the next election
    5) Reform have peaked from their 35% polling
    6) Farage is widely hated
    6) The Green vote has a strong 'O Jeremy Corbyn' feel about it and is flaky, split between young impressionable and older enthusiastic recyclers
    7) At the next GE the 70%+ non Reform vote will operate tactically
    8) Reform are about 11/4 to get a majority in the next GE.

    You keep on posting something like this, but you don't present much evidence for it.

    Most Tory voters will tactically vote for Reform to stop a Labour or Green victory. Very few Labour or Green voters will vote tactically for a Tory to stop a Reform victory. Your anti-Reform 70+% doesn't exist.

    We know this from the opinion polling and the evidence of by-elections.

    If Reform maintain a lead then FPTP will deliver them a winner's bonus, and it's possible they win a majority on a very low national share of the vote.
    Thanks. All fair points.

    It seems to me that my points 1,2,3,5,6,8 are more or less factual. 4 is massively probable. 7 is a guess or intuition. I never claim that 70%+ is the anti-Reform vote, but that it is the non-Reform vote. My guess is that a substantial number of the 70+% non Reform voters will vote to keep Reform out and that 'who to vote for to keep Reform out in your seat' will be a major industry from 2028 onwards, and will have an effect.

    The reason for making my general point, whether right or wrong, is that extensive coverage of Thursday's elections have almost (except for Wales and Scotland) erased the realities of the 70% voting for Lab, Con, LD, Green and so on. This leads to a mistaken understanding what is going on. Which is 'fragmentation and disillusion - Yes'; 'Reform electorally unsurpassable - No.'

    Guesses about the future (betting relies on these to exist) involves imagining ahead. I imagine that the near prospect of a Reform government will, like being hanged in a fortnight, concentrate minds in quite a different way from this moment.

    Important to take into account in the 70% non-Reform vote is that it is very varied by geography, and in the main obvious who the alternative is.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
    107 Wine Shop & Bar, 107 Lower Clapton Road, London E5 0NP
    Binch, 51 Greenwood Road, London E8 1NT
    Yuki Bar, 426 Reading Lane, London E8 1DS
    Planque, Arches 322–324, Acton Mews, London E8 4EA
    Bruno, 211a Victoria Park Road, London E9 7JN
    Bastardo, Unit 3, 201 Richmond Road, London E8 3NJ
    Passione Vino Shoreditch, 85 Leonard Street, London EC2A 4QS
    Albers, 23A Englefield Road, London N1 4JX
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,315
    Icarus said:

    They have been ignored but the Liberal Democrats had a good election - In almost all places they were previously strong Greens or Reform didn't get a look in. if politics is a relay race Sir Ed has run a strong leg and now should hand the baton on. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives the new leader (Daisy Cooper for me) would start from a strong position without a mess to clean up.

    We (the LDs) struggled to stand still in Birmingham, largely due to the surge in support for the Greens eating into our support.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123
    Taz said:

    .

    Icarus said:

    They have been ignored but the Liberal Democrats had a good election - In almost all places they were previously strong Greens or Reform didn't get a look in. if politics is a relay race Sir Ed has run a strong leg and now should hand the baton on. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives the new leader (Daisy Cooper for me) would start from a strong position without a mess to clean up.

    Look at places like Newcastle and Sunderland. Winning all 3 seats in ward after ward after ward. Huge gains in interesting places.
    They did well in Durham last year out of the three main parties. They headed up the coalition before too.

    If only, nationally, the Lib Dem’s gave a fuck about the North East they could become well established here. However no Gail’s here and only a few Waitrose.
    Also the Lib Dem’s have always had some pockets in Gateshead and parts of Gateshead are very Lib Dem friendly.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    mwadams said:

    Is everybody enjoying the quiet?

    I pop off for an hour and come back to discover that what I thought was a PB gag that everyone had decided to run with is actually a fair representation of what our PM is doing with his Saturday morning.
    The Thick of It these days looks like a documentary of sensible joined up goverence in comparison....
    I admire Peter Mannion enough to have him as my avatar. Let me tell you, Kemi Badenoch is no Series 3 Peter Mannion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    My wife and I are off to a wine bar this afternoon.
    Christ with drink prices as they are you must be doing well for yourself....
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123
    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
    That Willmot-Brown was a dodgy geezer.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    My wife and I are off to a wine bar this afternoon.
    Christ with drink prices as they are you must be doing well for yourself....
    We used to go out three times a week, now it’s three times every two weeks. 🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947
    trukat said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    Starmer has to do something gargantuan to survive, a complete change of narrative.

    Three options:
    1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
    2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
    3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad

    Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.

    Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.

    Screw it. Roll the dice.
    Agreed. Joining the EU now is a sure winner. Yes we have the Reform and Brexit types but they are now in the minority (by quite a distance). SKS should just go for it! It’s the only hope for him..
    He probably should have gone for it last year as a hail mary (I assumed it was in the long term plans for term 2 etc), but the problem is surely that the EU won't accept the UK as a member right now.

    Not because they wouldn't want us back in, that's just dumb as getting a nation of 70m back in would come with all sorts of benefits. But because the issue is still too raw, and whilst EU sentiment is higher than when the referendum occurred, Brexit support is still too high for the EU to want to risk rerunning the whole argument in another 10-15 years.
    Support for rejoining drops as you ask people about losing the pound, freedom of movement and membership fees. Having a prime minister less popular than Nixon after Watergate make the argument to rejoin is perhaps not the best idea. If you want to do this, get Starmer out first.
    Support for rejoin grows, I presume, if you ask people about passport queues, abolishing roaming charges, boosting Britain’s exporters, lower prices, etc. Of course support goes up and down if you present different arguments.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
    107 - one of the trendier bars in the very middle of Hackney - literally calls itself "a wine bar"

    https://www.107wine.co.uk/

    It is @OnlyLivingBoy who is showing his age and out-of-touchness. @MaxPB is too young, anyway, to remember the 80s incarnation of "the wine bar"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited May 9
    Starmer has even lost Jon "Mandy is an inspired choice" Sopel,

    When Gordon Brown is the answer to the government’s unpopularity and lack of common touch…..😬
    https://x.com/jonsopel/status/2053053726152155350?s=20

    Right, that's Flint Wrexham back in the Labour column then
    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2053049052497948892?s=20

    This isn't going well is it.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    "I've been going out with a girl, her name is Julie.
    But last night she said to me, as we were watching telly......"
  • eekeek Posts: 33,915
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    Starmer has to do something gargantuan to survive, a complete change of narrative.

    Three options:
    1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
    2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
    3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad

    Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.

    Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.

    Screw it. Roll the dice.
    Agreed. Joining the EU now is a sure winner. Yes we have the Reform and Brexit types but they are now in the minority (by quite a distance). SKS should just go for it! It’s the only hope for him..
    He probably should have gone for it last year as a hail mary (I assumed it was in the long term plans for term 2 etc), but the problem is surely that the EU won't accept the UK as a member right now.

    Not because they wouldn't want us back in, that's just dumb as getting a nation of 70m back in would come with all sorts of benefits. But because the issue is still too raw, and whilst EU sentiment is higher than when the referendum occurred, Brexit support is still too high for the EU to want to risk rerunning the whole argument in another 10-15 years.
    Plus they'd expect us to swiftly join the euro - to lock us in. That is a very very hard sell in the UK. Plus Schenghen and most of our fishing. Also, any one of the 27 EU nations can veto, unless they get what they want. Gibraltar? The Cyprus bases? United Ireland? Negotiation would be hellish and take ten years and might not even result in a Yes, OK

    That's why IIRC the Spectator article on this theme said Starmer should call the referendum, then win it, then QUIT very quickly, leaving the mess to others, while enjoying the glory, and the praise of idiot Remainers like @Roger and @murali_s who think it will be super simple to Rejoin
    On fish as I chatted to my daughter this afternoon about Iceland and its forthcoming membership referendum - it’s the people who own the fishing rights who are fighting against them joining the EU. The attack line is that those rights are owned by about 5 people and they’ve got other interests that could keep them busy
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,841

    "I've been going out with a girl, her name is Julie.
    But last night she said to me, as we were watching telly......"

    "Gordon is an inspired choice..."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    My wife and I are off to a wine bar this afternoon.
    Christ with drink prices as they are you must be doing well for yourself....
    We used to go out three times a week, now it’s three times every two weeks. 🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂
    Still too often for Rachel Reeves liking....you clearly need to pay more tax.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Starmer is turning into a weird British version of Trump

    Right now the entire government of the UK is being run with just one purpose: to prolong the Prime Minister's tenure in Number 10 by a few more months, then a few more months after that, even though it is now obvious he is not up to the job, and voters, en masse, urgentlly want him gone. The interests of the United Kingdom are, apparently, secondary to the interests of Sir Keir Starmer

    It's like Trump in the Oval Office
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    I think somebody has hit Claude on the head the same way as Starmer....its absolutely moronic this morning.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,291
    edited May 9
    Can someone please explain why SKS thinks bringing in a man best known for being PM in a disastrous economic crash as an economic advisor and a woman who spent her early career carrying water for the pedophile lobby in as a women & girls' rights advisor is going to be just the thing to turn Labour around?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,878
    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
    107 Wine Shop & Bar, 107 Lower Clapton Road, London E5 0NP
    Binch, 51 Greenwood Road, London E8 1NT
    Yuki Bar, 426 Reading Lane, London E8 1DS
    Planque, Arches 322–324, Acton Mews, London E8 4EA
    Bruno, 211a Victoria Park Road, London E9 7JN
    Bastardo, Unit 3, 201 Richmond Road, London E8 3NJ
    Passione Vino Shoreditch, 85 Leonard Street, London EC2A 4QS
    Albers, 23A Englefield Road, London N1 4JX
    Nothing says quality like "Unit 3, 201 Richmond Road,"
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,878
    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    You do realise there are quite a lot of trendy bars in Hackney, many of which serve wine?
    There are plenty here in Lewisham too. Nobody calls them wine bars.

    The last true wine bar in the environs of Hackney (is Walford in Hackney?) was Dagmar’s, on Albert Square.
    107 - one of the trendier bars in the very middle of Hackney - literally calls itself "a wine bar"

    https://www.107wine.co.uk/

    It is @OnlyLivingBoy who is showing his age and out-of-touchness. @MaxPB is too young, anyway, to remember the 80s incarnation of "the wine bar"
    Tankerloads of red and a Bramdean Pudding at the Boot and Flogger.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    Together, we will build a stronger and fairer Britain.
    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2053060656706834786?s=20

    Somebody make it stop.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,623
    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    BTW - hello again everyone. Not that it has one jot of impact on your day, but it was quite like old times over the past few days and I really enjoyed the election day sparring.

    Yes, it was good

    If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism

    We do need PR at some point
    If not now, when ?

    Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.

    With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.

    "At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
    I agree. I want PR. But Labour cannot just shove it through with a vote, that would be disastrous and probably dangerous

    It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory

    That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
    If Labour back it, the Tories, on around 20% of the vote, are the only party which doesn't. You don't need another bloody referendum.

    If I were Starmer's replacement I would challenge Farage to back a Commons bill introducing it for the next General Election.
    According to local Reform activists, Reform have gone off PR. "Not in our interest"
    Are they renaming themselves from Reform to Same Old ?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress”

    Down the Dog and Duck in Sunderland it what you hear the locals saying every night.

    But you may overhear that kind of nonsense in a wine bar in Hackney where all of these policy advisers live after work.
    "Wine bar in Hackney" lol. The eighties called and want their cliche back.
    My wife and I are off to a wine bar this afternoon.
    Christ with drink prices as they are you must be doing well for yourself....
    During Covid I discovered the pleasures of meeting a friend, outdoors - in a park or by the Thames - with a bottle of wine each. We sit on a blanket or deck chairs and open his bottle, then mine, or vice versa, and we discuss the wines and the world

    We still do it even tho the pando is long gone. Because it is, I gotta say, often much nicer than going to a pub or a Hackney wine bar, because of course you bring sensational wines, and don't have to suffer mediocre bottles that cost £50

    Only problem is the British weather, which makes it impossible for seven months of the year
This discussion has been closed.