There is now going to be a Westminster by-election which Labour could win – politicalbetting.com
There is now going to be a Westminster by-election which Labour could win – politicalbetting.com
Following Stephen Flynn’s election to Holyrood we now have a Westminster by-election in Aberdeen South. I do expect an SNP hold with the right candidate I could see an SNP loss. Does Andy Burnham fancying becoming the King of the North East of Scotland?
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Fitlike, furrybooots are you fae?
It really depends on whether SNP voters turn out again. I guess a quick by-election would not be in their favour.
D'oh how stupid of me to think that.
Glad somebody picked up on the 'don't look back in Bangor' one though.
The protest vote for Reform, even if they were to obtain an unlikely majority at the next election, would almost certainly do nothing to address that.
"The Labour Party need the chance to have an honest conversation about how we deliver the change we promised in 2024, and that requires new leadership which understands the urgent and real concerns of people across the UK," she said.
SHORTLY THERE WILL BE A WESTMINSTER BY-ELECTION IN WHICH LABOUR WILL... ?
Reform UK paper candidate who was elected in Bradford, Daniel Devaney, has resigned already saying he doesn't want to be a councillor and has gone away on holiday.
https://x.com/MyArrse/status/2052838969654509927
If nothing else, the complete annihilation of old style uniparty politics has finally injected excitement into Westminster - and even local elections (and PB). People can now vote for 5, 6 or 7 parties knowing that they are voting for something they actually desire, not out of dutiful tribalism
We do need PR at some point
Can’t one Labour person come out and say “this is a disaster. Starmer has to go”
It would be electrifying in its simplicity
1) On Thursday about 73% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform. Almost all hyped up comment has ignored their existence.
2) Projections of NEV from Thursday's elections gave Reform about a 7 point lead over the next place (Sky, Rallings and Thrasher
3) Reform got 27% of the vote (NEV) and a 4 point swap between them and the Tories would put (astonishingly) Tories in the lead
4) Starmer won't be PM at the next election
5) Reform have peaked from their 35% polling
6) Farage is widely hated
6) The Green vote has a strong 'O Jeremy Corbyn' feel about it and is flaky, split between young impressionable and older enthusiastic recyclers
7) At the next GE the 70%+ non Reform vote will operate tactically
8) Reform are about 11/4 to get a majority in the next GE.
Farage wants it; the LibDems have always wanted it; the Greens strongly support it. And Labour are possibly shell shocked enough to recognise their likely inability ever to win another commons majority.
With very broad cross party support, and a large Parliamentary majority, there will never be a better time.
"At some point" just means kick it into the long grass.
So a competitive by-election to come.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-members-keir-starmer-party-fortunes-poll
Pressure grows on Starmer as more Labour MPs call for resignation
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/may/09/may-elections-results-keir-starmer-labour-nigel-farage-reform-uk-politics-latest-news-updates
There are plenty now calling for him to go - but they want him to step down voluntarily, for obvious reasons, rather than have to drag him out of No.10,
This is characteristic of many such comments.
Clive Betts, MP for Sheffield South East, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Starmer has to go “in the not too distant future”.
Stephen Flynn will be missed in the HOC as he was excellent at holding Starmer to account
There is no 'sugar coating this' seems to be the official speak for labour mps
Wales ejected labour from the Senedd in a long forecasted result, but to her great credit Eluned Morgan made a gracious resignation speech accepting she had failed to prevent the devastating result
Compare and contrast that to Starmer who blames everyone else or it didn't pass his desk
I do not like hate being used towards Starmer, and certainly I do not hate him but just despair at how inept and unsuited he is and if labour allow him to continue they are looking at an existential crisis for their movement
As for Kemi she is not going to be challenged, and whilst yesterday was poor for the conservatives, she has started the process of recovery and she has 3 years to complete the task
I would really like to see a head to head between her and Farage as I expect she would show him up for what he is
Interesting that yesterday and in today's mail Boris has firmly rowed in behind Kemi, which may well trigger some
We are in different politics now and it is very interesting
In the meantime I wish Rhun well as our new Plaid First Minister and note that 1 labour and 1 conservative are likely to be Presiding and Deputy Presiding Officers
It either needs to be won in a referendum or as the fulfilment of an explicit manifesto promise, after a GE victory
That said, such is the disgruntled nature of the electorate right now, that referendum might pass today. People WANT change
a) they didn't promise any change in 2024 - because they needed to keep floating voters on board their manifesto was paper-thin
b) any new leadership will be selected by party members and activists, who are about the last people you'd expect to understand people's concerns in Basildon, Stroud, Hexham or wherever.
So if that's what she really thinks, Labour are in even more trouble than their dire election result indicated.
As there will be two by-elections at the same time maybe Lab and Con should make a secret pact to focus on one each
If I were Starmer's replacement I would challenge Farage to back a Commons bill introducing it for the next General Election.
It would be most disadvantageous to Reform with the current state of things.
Doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done, of course…
£100bn a year is about £30 per person per week. Whether that's tax rises or paying for things directly instead of via the state doesn't change the number. If we're honest, for some of us (a lot of us here) that would barely be noticed. For a lot of us, it would be unpleasant. For some, it would be painful, which is why it would be mad to do it as a flat rate thing. But if it really were life or death, freedom or slavery, we'd find it. You know, like the WW2 generation we eulogise did. The money is there.
But the threat is too distant and intangible. So we would all rather quibble and haggle about how someone else should pay more and we should pay less. See the mewling over winter fuel payments from a generation who didn't fund that boon for their parents.
Starmer isn't up to winning that argument with the public, but who is?
Labour have ZERO chance.
The Tories only just missed the equivalent Holyrood seat by 1200 votes, due to Reform. Labour nowhere.
It's a huge opportunity to give John Swinney a bad hair day, but it won't be Labour handling the scissors.
You are why people vote Reform.
Shame on you. Either you win a referendum or you win an election with PR in your manifesto
In no way can you describe yesterday as "the process of recovery" for the Conservatives. It was - as you also said - "poor". Catastrophically in many places where they used to be very strong.
Chatting with NE Tories yesterday they were decidedly glum, and a little bemused by my laughing in the face of disaster mindset.
At least with Birmingham we are going to get a preview of what the next Parliament will look like without some change
You need to have PR endorsed by the voters to overcome such opposition. Either in a referendum - which would be impossible for the current government to win because it is so unpopular - or by making it a manifesto commitment of parties that win a general election.
There are no shortcuts. Life is hard.
Starmer will go.
Farage's alleged incredibly dodgy business dealings, and who those dealings have been with must come under scrutiny.
The historic alleged racism, particularly the anti-Semitism will be scrutinised more as the election approaches.
The Trump adjacency as MAGA sinks.
Reform in office could well prove disastrous, particularly in the current climate. Flags are not cheap and something else has to give.
Oh, and one for the 2919 Tories, don't forget swing back!
Three options:
1) Announce that faced with the global economic and security threat we are going to apply to join the EU
2) Announce that with the obvious 6 way electoral politics delivered in recent elections FPTP is unsustainable and not supported by most parties elected in 2024 and thus a change to PR will be introduced
3) Announce that faced with our fiscal crisis he has instructed the Chancellor to place a tax on all foreigners living abroad
Remember folks, parliament is sovereign and can do whatever the fuck it likes. The Tories will bleat on about PR not being in the manifesto whist hoping you have forgotten that the Trussgasm was also not in the manifesto yet they backed that.
Reform will say PR is an attempt to cheat them, despite Farage stating openly that FPTP is an attempt to cheat them which is why they need PR.
Screw it. Roll the dice.
For the past year, every few days somebody gets removed from the various groups.
Then you find out that in parts of the country a majority of the 2024 Tory activist base have defected to Reform.
Asking them doesn't give a plausible policy platform at all.
This speech on Monday sounds like a complete joke. I genuinely don’t think Sir Keir understands how bad it is.
@DPJHodges
We've now had four cabinet Ministers - Lisa Nandy, Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood and Yvette Cooper - who have specifically failed to endorse Keir Starmer. These are all senior politicians, who know exactly what they're doing, and what signal their statements are sending.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2053019276454342896
The financial markets can impose instead.
Those people thinking they have nothing to lose by voting Reform or Green might discover they do if the welfare they receive or public services they use are cut.
It certainly isn't the one who is currently Prime Minister in name only.
And we could get back to fiscal sanity by cutting £30 per person a week of state entitlements. But flip knows what without further hurting people who are hurting enough.
The British people have spent decades voting to take out more than we put in, and now we think it's normal. Trouble is, it isn't.
A note. At several points yesterday I was in a gaggle of LD and Tory activists / councillors. We all agreed that the clear and obvious place for both parties to go shopping is in the traditional centre right and to do so with some big picture reforms of how we do things in this country, wrapped in Cameronism "we're all in this together"
And another note. Two people - both councillors, one Tory, one LD - suggested the only way to remove the SNP from its vice grip is for there to be an alliance of unionists. Competing with each other to split the no vote just means wall to wall SNP. How we would pull such a thing off is the question...
Then win it. Then retire in glory before the total crap show of negotiating re-entry begins
I think this would take him from 0% to around a 25% chance of survival.
It’s obvious that Starmer doesn’t have a clue how to win the next election.
My view is a Reform government wouldn't get anything done because they'd be utterly disorganised, incompetent and more interesting in grandstanding and pissing, and that's not how politics works.
Harriet Harman arrives. Is announced as the PM's new SPAD for Women and Girls.
Gordon Brown has now arrived.
Both are true. Not a joke!!!
For a politician to be vilified by the Palestine adjacent for what they see as his role in the genocide of 80,000 Gazans and hated by the Jewish lobby for, what they see as encouraging the assassination of Jewish people on the streets of Britain is a remarkable feat, even for justifiably the most hated man in Britain today.
Unfortunately beaten last night in the play offs for the Scottish Premiership.
I am sure that is exactly what all those Northern seats they got spanked in want to see as part of the change agenda, more DEI in the civil service. Farage must be pissing himself laughing.
Everyone can see this is over. But apparently not Keir Starmer. I conclude he’s thick as pig shit.
Reform aren’t 20 points ahead and a GE campaign is quite different from local elections .
Thursday was a free hit for voters in England . Some of the Reform policy positions might excite their base but the UK isn’t the USA and their core vote isn’t enough to get elected .
Most Tory voters will tactically vote for Reform to stop a Labour or Green victory. Very few Labour or Green voters will vote tactically for a Tory to stop a Reform victory. Your anti-Reform 70+% doesn't exist.
We know this from the opinion polling and the evidence of by-elections.
If Reform maintain a lead then FPTP will deliver them a winner's bonus, and it's possible they win a majority on a very low national share of the vote.