Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower than shown by the polls.
Except the NEV is almost bang on Reforms polling average.
Reform have outperformed in the north where many councils are thirds up and underperformed in London which was all out, hence their councillor number is not as high as expected for the net vote share
Some Tories still recognise an enemy when they see one. Practicality in many areas suggests 'deals' even if not officially a deal though.
The Conservatives finished with 23 seats, that’s six short of a majority, and with Labour on 19, Reform UK on 14 seats and the Liberal Democrats with one, it means [Swindon], which has for so long been a straight fight between Conservatives and Labour, is now split three ways...
The Conservative leader, and next council leader presumptive, Councillors Gary Sumner said: “We will not do a deal with Reform which has a stated aim to destroy the Conservative party".
RTÉ seem to believe that Starmer is safe because if he's replaced the new PM would have to hold a general election. Bizarre reporting.
This from a nation which appoints their PM and governing coalition only after many months of negotiation in smoke filled rooms after a general election, with the electorate having no further input to say whether they approve of the eventual governing coalition or not.
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
Remarkably, that was how Streeting got his first break in politics; having been beaten by yours truly in my own ward, it transpired that a newly elected Labour councillor in another ward was a teacher and hence disqualified, whereupon there was a by-election a few weeks later which gave a hitherto unknown Streeting an in to local politics as a councillor.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
"I know what.three.words isn't now the dominant coordinate system in the world and the aliens haven't quite taken over - but!..."
I think if Sir Keir can hold on for another 8 days the country will be so swept up with the euphoria of our #Eurovision win that these election results will be forgotten.
I am available to spin this out to 800 words if any commissioning eds have a hole they need filling.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower than shown by the polls.
Except the NEV is almost bang on Reforms polling average.
True. This suggests that the failure in this case was in translating the opinion polls into a seats forecast, which has implications for general election predictions.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Well go and look. I absolutely promise you it's a great place. They have a magnificent range of wines. As posted in my edit: Salusbury wines. Obviously I have no connection etc.
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
Yes. Greek food is also improving fast - following the wine
I went to Athens in the post Covid summer of 2022 and had it basically to myself. It was glorious. And I ate in loads of cool new restaurants. The food was generally excellent
The Greeks know how to keep it simple yet delicious
I don’t know why the wine suddenly got so good. But it did
Same revolution that happened in most of SE Europe and West Asia in the last couple of decades: winemaking had been traditional and beset with faults like oxidation and volatile acidity, or mass produced in Soviet style factories from “international” varieties. New generation of winemakers who’d been to proper wine college and learned from working in France, Spain, Italy and the New World came along and shook things up, and rediscovered traditional varieties. As you found recently in Turkey (and very much the case in Georgia and Armenia).
I do like the wine bar we go to in Durham. They have wines from many different nations. I had a really nice Armenian white there.
I do like the variety they have from different nations and not expensive either.
Looking like a bit of a shitshow in Birmingham. There’s still 22 seats to declare, but a majority is 51 and right now no one has more than 17.
The electoral system is not fit for purpose.
Sounds like they may be obliged to ... *gasps* .... cooperate.
Hopefully being unable to call fresh elections will force that, as the worry in parliament if such things happen is it's worth trying again to shake things up and NOT be forced to cooperate.
Most council decisions are not really partisan however, even if they end up selecting sides - there's no Tory or Reform or Labour unique policy on potholes, and they all will agree they think government doesn't give enough money and makes them build too many houses.
SNP & Greens have enough to form a majority. Referendum now!
Referendum now? Really? Why do you think there's a mandate for that when there's a combined 40.4% of the constituency vote for the two parties proposing secession, compared to 58.4% for those opposing it, excluding 1.4% of "others"?
I'm just messing around. I'm not even Scottish.
Unusual to admit that as a disqualification, well done!
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
Remarkably, that was how Streeting got his first break in politics; having been beaten by yours truly in my own ward, it transpired that a newly elected Labour councillor in another ward was a teacher and hence disqualified, whereupon there was a by-election a few weeks later which gave a hitherto unknown Streeting an in to local politics as a councillor.
RTÉ seem to believe that Starmer is safe because if he's replaced the new PM would have to hold a general election. Bizarre reporting.
This from a nation which appoints their PM and governing coalition only after many months of negotiation in smoke filled rooms after a general election, with the electorate having no further input to say whether they approve of the eventual governing coalition or not.
Last two elections have resulted in a rotisserie Taoiseach too.
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
Would you not check this beforehand? The mind boggles.
The Greens had a number of surprise wins. They may have been a paper candidate and not expecting to win.
Possibly, plus activists, candidates, and agents, are not universally knowledgeable about the electoral process and can have unearned confidence in how much they know about the rules.
Looking like a bit of a shitshow in Birmingham. There’s still 22 seats to declare, but a majority is 51 and right now no one has more than 17.
The electoral system is not fit for purpose.
So which alternative electoral system would deliver a majority in Birmingham based on yesterday's vote share?
Is anywhere producing a list of vote shares by LA?
I meant "yesterday's (fragmented) voting pattern" above.
But to answer your question, I suspect not and haven't found one for England. Sky do have constituency vote shares for each Scottish and Welsh constituency if you drill down.
Looking ahead, a pretty interesting by-election coming up.
Aberdeen South will become vacant due to Stephen Flynn transferring to Holyrood.
The 2024 result:
SNP Stephen Flynn 15,213 32.8 −12.5 Labour M. Tauqeer Malik 11,455 24.7 +15.9 Conservative John Wheeler 11,300 24.4 −10.0 Reform Michael Pearce 3,199 6.9 +6.5 Liberal Democrats Jeff Goodhall 2,921 6.3 −4.4 Green Guy Ingerson 1,609 3.5 +3.0 Scottish Family Graeme Craib 423 0.9 N/A Independent Sophie Molly 225 0.5 N/A
Oh please let Sophie Molly run again, there's a lack of novelty candidates in Scotland.
Anyone see the Guga guy at Edinburgh Central count?
I saw the pic. Angus R. giving every sign of not finding it funny.
As outgoing Minister for Culture and Heritage , wasn’t the protest aimed squarely at him ?
Looking like a bit of a shitshow in Birmingham. There’s still 22 seats to declare, but a majority is 51 and right now no one has more than 17.
The electoral system is not fit for purpose.
So which alternative electoral system would deliver a majority in Birmingham based on yesterday's vote share?
Is anywhere producing a list of vote shares by LA?
I meant "yesterday's (fragmented) voting pattern" above.
But to answer your question, I suspect not and haven't found one for England. Sky do have constituency vote shares for each Scottish and Welsh constituency if you drill down.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
In early stages (and US focused) - but this is a fun AI platform that tracks public predictions by pundits and then follows up whether they came true. https://www.app.vistadex.com/claim-markets
Robert Peston @Peston · 1h Pretty much every member of the cabinet has tweeted some version of “it’s all very sad what’s happened but sacking the boss would be worse” - apart from Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood
If I'm bored one weekend - I might write an LLM 'agent' who does all this pishy 'omg - but look at twitter!' punditry. Though I'm not sure I even care enough to say 'Claude - could you write me a pundit?'
1) Reform have done great, but I don't think well enough to win a majority. Not yet. Their areas of strength will see them to north of 200 seats but short of a majority as there is significant opposition, and it's becoming clear who is competitive regionally.
2) The Tories aren't dead. They are losing seats to Reform and aren't recovering in the Southern Wall lost to the Lib Dems. But there are still certain areas that are uniquely Tory and not susceptible to either of these.
3) The Greens haven't reached the 'tipping point'. They have done well but their vote is not as well distributed as some of the other parties. At this level they'd probably be similar to Reform last time: lots of second places but disappointingly few wins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to build on their momentum.
4) Given the above, I expect a Reform-Tory coalition or similar is the most likely next government. But three years is a long time in politics so who knows...
Reform's balloon has been gently deflating over the past 6-9 month.
By the time of the election, they will look like one of those Christmas balloons you find behind the sofa in April.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on. In general we are a bunch of gents of a certain age. I'm glad you stayed in the PB pub
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Doesn't that mean pollsters should be disappointed?
In part, but if parties are underperforming their polling, and you think the local elections are a more reliable guide than polling, then it implies their support is lower than we thought, which is not good for those parties.
But it seems churlish to argue that Reform did not have an objectively good day (let alone 'a disaster'), even if they undershot polling expectations.
Equally, the fact that Reform isn't storming ahead quite as much as we may have believed yesterday gives some hope to the other parties. They are clearly not an unstoppable force.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
No, you're not the average London centrist
1. I don't believe in the "average voter" - everyone is unique
2. This site is not blessed with smart younger people willing to explain why they are voting as they vote, you do that
3. We still need more young women (who doesn't, etc etc) but it's something
Special thoughts and prayers today for Anas Sarwar, who must have thought a couple of years ago he was going to be, or at least had an excellent chance to be, First Minister.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Labour have had a bad day on W Yorks. Almost a clean sweep for Reform in Wakefield.
So Reform are polling around 26% from what I can understand.
Badenoch just needs to continue slowly grinding it down.
Even 26% wouldn't do them a whole lot of good at a GE, since under FPTP they be regularly thwarted by tactical voting.
I think 26% is an excellent result for Reform given the circumstances. They've battered their way through a lot. And they've incurred a scar - backing out of that shitpost Green constituency asylum camp policy, as they will have to do, will cost them greatly in credibility.
However, they have done it - inflicted a massive defeat on the ruling party and won more votes than anyone else. They must now build on it.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Another potential example of PJH's Theory of Management Decision-making: If deferring a decision is an option, that is the decision that will be taken, especially if the point at which a decision should have been taken has already passed.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
Could Labour win any by election now? Might have to be ennobled instead.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Doesn't that mean pollsters should be disappointed?
In part, but if parties are underperforming their polling, and you think the local elections are a more reliable guide than polling, then it implies their support is lower than we thought, which is not good for those parties.
But it seems churlish to argue that Reform did not have an objectively good day (let alone 'a disaster'), even if they undershot polling expectations.
Equally, the fact that Reform isn't storming ahead quite as much as we may have believed yesterday gives some hope to the other parties. They are clearly not an unstoppable force.
The pundits got it right. It was the voters who got it wrong.
In fact. Birmingham is so f-ed that the only three party coalitions which can reach a majority would have to include Reform. Some of these results will be a big test of their ability to play nicely with others.
I will not vote Labour again whilst Sir Keir is in charge. I am as of right now, politically homeless.
Well when knocking up yesterday I came across someone who said they were still Labour supporters but had lent their vote to the Greens because (they thought that) if they voted Labour it would just encourage Starmer to stay on.
The man is like a useless barnacle on a ship, dragging it back in the water while clinging on for dear life.
1,354 English Council losses for Labour with 9 more councils to count tomorrow, going to get to well over 1,400, possibly 1,450 even. Plus complete and utter meltdown in Wales. And with a dire result in Scotland looking good by comparison, probably aided by the leader there having the guts to call for Starmer to go.
FFS, how bad does electoral armageddon have to get in order to get rid of him?
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
Kemi's Tories aren't centrist, though. Truss aside, her government would probably be the most right wing one we've had since Thatcher. She's to the right of May, Big Dog, and Sunak when it comes to immigration, the size of the state, welfare, and energy.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
Oddschecker suggests you can get 11/2 on Starmer being Labour leader at the next general election.
Nigel Farage is 12/1 to be next Prime Minister, which I think is quite attractive in light of the reluctance of the plotters to act, and Burnham's absence from the Commons.
Badenoch is 28/1 to be next Prime Minister, which is remarkable for the leader of the opposition given the PM's unpopularity. It's a bet on Labour inaction and a Farage implosion, which is surely pretty good value at 28/1 (albeit there's three years of inflation to consider).
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
Kemi's Tories aren't centrist, though. Truss aside, her government would probably be the most right wing one we've had since Thatcher.
Yeah but Labour aren’t anything. That’s the issue.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
Could Labour win any by election now? Might have to be ennobled instead.
It would be tricky, but if he is genuinely popular and many in Labour want Starmer gone then there is at least some reason to think he could buck national trends. Indeed, that would be the point. Heck of a risk though.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Another potential example of PJH's Theory of Management Decision-making: If deferring a decision is an option, that is the decision that will be taken, especially if the point at which a decision should have been taken has already passed.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
If you really really want Starmer gone then the quickest way would be to vote for Andy Burnham in any by election. Voting against him would be voting to keep Starmer.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
This is far, far worse than Brown. He had at least a chance of securing a coalition with the Liberals and remaining in office.
Starmer's Labour face a Canada style wipe out in 2029.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
At this moment they’ve lost my vote on principle.
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Can you defect to “won’t vote”? I guess you can.
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
Your political journey is actually quite compelling. From Corbynite to lapsed Labour supporter who might go Tory
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on
Am I not just the average London centrist?
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
Massive Corbynite when Jezza was in charge
But I’m talking about right now. I think I’m a very centrist voter.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
Could Labour win any by election now? Might have to be ennobled instead.
If he's not willing to give up on becoming PM, Burnham's best bet now would be to very publically throw his support behind Rayner or Miliband as part of a deal in which he would be allowed to stand for any parliamentary vacancy of his chosing. There's still plenty of time to stand for leader in 2027 or 2028 should a new Labour leader fail to turn things around.
Alternatively, just accept ennoblement and a high ranking seat in the Cabinet, while seeing out his term as GM Mayor.
Any candidate standing against Starmer who Burnham very publically endorses will pick up support not just from the Labour selectorate but also the wider electorate.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Another potential example of PJH's Theory of Management Decision-making: If deferring a decision is an option, that is the decision that will be taken, especially if the point at which a decision should have been taken has already passed.
There's always more road to kick the can down.
Anyone saying 'All the other options are worse' should consider that this option could get worse too - a lot worse. They haven't even started the Mandelson stuff. They haven't even started the public inquiry into the thing that we don't discuss.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
23-29(+8)
What does that figure you keep updating actually mean?
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
23-29(+8)
What does that figure you keep updating actually mean?
Reform Vs others (and treat Gaza Independents separately). That last Green win means Reform cannot get a majority, so we're confirmed NOC.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
Could Labour win any by election now? Might have to be ennobled instead.
It would be tricky, but if he is genuinely popular and many in Labour want Starmer gone then there is at least some reason to think he could buck national trends. Indeed, that would be the point. Heck of a risk though.
I actually think Burnham would win a suitable seat. The public at large doesn't 'like' right wing politicians - yes a sizable minority now love Nige, but many are voting for him out of despair and frustration. Show them a personable left wing option that looks like he could get the car back on the road, he'll get a seat.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
This is far, far worse than Brown. He had at least a chance of securing a coalition with the Liberals and remaining in office.
Starmer's Labour face a Canada style wipe out in 2029.
Not quite, but certainly down to double digits only in parliamentary seats if things continue.
What people forget, when judging yesterday on seat counts in England, is that although the combined Lab/LD/Green seat count is roughly equal to the combined Ref/Con seat count, the areas which DIDN'T see elections yesterday are ones where Reform and Con would pick up the vast majority of seats in a parliamentary election, and Labour very few. Basically nearly all are in the shires. So yesterday's results point to the two right wing parties between them ending up with a very large majority in a GE. The most right wing government since the universal franchise.
And meanwhile Starmer says keep calm and carry on. No.
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer until Christmas to change the party around
Jeesh they are such a bunch of utter testicle-free shite.
They deserve to lose their seats.
Xmas will become "let us wait until May and another round of local elections". If the public reject us again then...
Should we reconsider the odds on Farage (or Badenochn if you prefer) as next Prime Minister? Might Starmer end up leading Labour into the next election as he insists?
At some point it is entirely possible that the party deludes itself into believing it’s too late or disruptive to change leader and it needs to spend the remaining time preparing for the GE rather than holding a leadership contest. That was the calculation Labour made under Brown, after a couple of false starts. It’s entirely possible they’ll make the same assessment if Starmer really wants to hang on - I don’t put anything past them now.
Agreed. If this result doesn't nudge them, then what will?
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
This is far, far worse than Brown. He had at least a chance of securing a coalition with the Liberals and remaining in office.
Starmer's Labour face a Canada style wipe out in 2029.
Not quite, but certainly down to double digits in parliamentary seats if things continue.
What people forget, when judging yesterday on seat counts in England, is that although the combined Lab/LD/Green seat count is roughly equal to the combined Ref/Con seat count, the areas which DIDN'T see elections yesterday are ones where Reform and Con would pick up the vast majority of seats in a parliamentary election, and Labour very few. Basically nearly all are in the shires. So yesterday's results point to the two right wing parties between them ending up with a very large majority in a GE. The most right wing government since the universal franchise.
And meanwhile Starmer says keep calm and carry on. No.
I still don't get why that absolute muppet Glasman was given the time of day. First thing Starmer's successor needs to do is expel Glasman from the party. Besides which, attempting to do Blue Labour with Starmer was the equivalent of Nottingham Forest appointing Big Ange. Really not the bloke you wanted as 'manager' if that was your strategy.
Comments
To declare:
Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles
Crosland Moor - likely Green
Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance
Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss
Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
The Conservatives finished with 23 seats, that’s six short of a majority, and with Labour on 19, Reform UK on 14 seats and the Liberal Democrats with one, it means [Swindon], which has for so long been a straight fight between Conservatives and Labour, is now split three ways...
The Conservative leader, and next council leader presumptive, Councillors Gary Sumner said: “We will not do a deal with Reform which has a stated aim to destroy the Conservative party".
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/26091857.conservatives-finish-largest-party-hung-council-election/
I think if Sir Keir can hold on for another 8 days the country will be so swept up with the euphoria of our #Eurovision win that these election results will be forgotten.
I am available to spin this out to 800 words if any commissioning eds have a hole they need filling.
I do like the variety they have from different nations and not expensive either.
Most council decisions are not really partisan however, even if they end up selecting sides - there's no Tory or Reform or Labour unique policy on potholes, and they all will agree they think government doesn't give enough money and makes them build too many houses.
Badenoch just needs to continue slowly grinding it down.
They deserve to lose their seats.
But to answer your question, I suspect not and haven't found one for England. Sky do have constituency vote shares for each Scottish and Welsh constituency if you drill down.
REPEAT
BATTERY HAS DEFECTED
Barnet: Con +9, leaving them one short of a majority
Enfield: Con +6, leaving them one short of a majority
In both cases, Green hold balance of power. No LDs or Ref on either council.
Labour 27 (including the Mayor) -38 from 2022.
Newham Independents: 24 +24 from 2022
Greens: 16 +14 from 2022
Labour continue in charge with the Mayor but it will be a lot less comfortable with two strong Opposition parties in the Council chamber.
https://www.app.vistadex.com/claim-markets
I won’t vote Tory in a GE I expect but in the next mayoral election I probably will.
This site needs people like you. Thoughtful younger voters who show what's going on. In general we are a bunch of gents of a certain age. I'm glad you stayed in the PB pub
I work in the private sector, I earn a very decent salary. I’m pretty socially liberal. I liked Johnson as London mayor, thought Cameron was fine, best PM of my life is Blair etc.
1023-1022.
Equally, the fact that Reform isn't storming ahead quite as much as we may have believed yesterday gives some hope to the other parties. They are clearly not an unstoppable force.
1. I don't believe in the "average voter" - everyone is unique
2. This site is not blessed with smart younger people willing to explain why they are voting as they vote, you do that
3. We still need more young women (who doesn't, etc etc) but it's something
Almost a clean sweep for Reform in Wakefield.
However, they have done it - inflicted a massive defeat on the ruling party and won more votes than anyone else. They must now build on it.
I guess the only wild card now is Burnham. If he can land a seat in SW1 he would surely overthrow Skyr
Some of these results will be a big test of their ability to play nicely with others.
The man is like a useless barnacle on a ship, dragging it back in the water while clinging on for dear life.
1,354 English Council losses for Labour with 9 more councils to count tomorrow, going to get to well over 1,400, possibly 1,450 even. Plus complete and utter meltdown in Wales. And with a dire result in Scotland looking good by comparison, probably aided by the leader there having the guts to call for Starmer to go.
FFS, how bad does electoral armageddon have to get in order to get rid of him?
Nigel Farage is 12/1 to be next Prime Minister, which I think is quite attractive in light of the reluctance of the plotters to act, and Burnham's absence from the Commons.
Badenoch is 28/1 to be next Prime Minister, which is remarkable for the leader of the opposition given the PM's unpopularity. It's a bet on Labour inaction and a Farage implosion, which is surely pretty good value at 28/1 (albeit there's three years of inflation to consider).
...
I shan't be considering Labour again whilst Starmer is allowed to continue.
It'll only encourage them to persist.
23-26(+8)
Voting against him would be voting to keep Starmer.
Shambolic government. But Reform are utterly corrupt.
We have to wait until tomorrow for the Bradford count to be completed. Reform currently largest party.
Plus the election in one ward was postponed due to the death of a candidate.
Starmer's Labour face a Canada style wipe out in 2029.
Alternatively, just accept ennoblement and a high ranking seat in the Cabinet, while seeing out his term as GM Mayor.
Any candidate standing against Starmer who Burnham very publically endorses will pick up support not just from the Labour selectorate but also the wider electorate.
There's very much a Danelaw effect.
23-29(+8)
What people forget, when judging yesterday on seat counts in England, is that although the combined Lab/LD/Green seat count is roughly equal to the combined Ref/Con seat count, the areas which DIDN'T see elections yesterday are ones where Reform and Con would pick up the vast majority of seats in a parliamentary election, and Labour very few. Basically nearly all are in the shires. So yesterday's results point to the two right wing parties between them ending up with a very large majority in a GE. The most right wing government since the universal franchise.
And meanwhile Starmer says keep calm and carry on. No.
Starmer has nothing. There is nothing there.
They say go further and faster. But doing what?
Besides which, attempting to do Blue Labour with Starmer was the equivalent of Nottingham Forest appointing Big Ange. Really not the bloke you wanted as 'manager' if that was your strategy.