Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave.
Still quite fascinated by Bexley’s election. Looks like Reform’s vote was pretty evenly spread at around 30 per cent and the drops in Con and Lab votes were also pretty uniform and large - but not quite large enough to lose in most of the wards they had. Reform left just short of take off point.
The downside of an airwar campaign. Havering was the opposite; a lot of Reform's winning percentages weren't spectacular, but they got them almost everywhere.
Sienna Rodgers @siennamarla NEW: Labour’s affiliated unions have demanded a meeting with the PM “to discuss the urgent change in direction that we all know is needed”
NOTE: This is not just from the Labour left unions – it’s from *all* of them – and Tulo is chaired by a leadership-friendly union general secretary
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave.
I think @OnlyLivingBoy was right this morning, in the comfortably off London suburbs people aren't looking to "roll the dice" so the Tories are holding up very well vs Reform and Labour against the Greens. I'm surprised the same phenomenon didn't extent to other large city suburbs. Birmingham and Manchester look like a wipe out for Labour.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Well go and look. I absolutely promise you it's a great place. They have a magnificent range of wines. As posted in my edit: Salusbury wines. Obviously I have no connection etc.
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
SNP & Greens have enough to form a majority. Referendum now!
SNP have lost 8 MSPs in an election Swinney said he needed an SNP majority for indyref2, even he isn't that stupid.
He will get his nice house as FM and 6 figure salary though staying as head of the Scottish government. SNP voting fodder done their job for him of getting him back in power while he doesn't reach the total he needs to have to push the hassle of indyref2 with the UK government
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
Depends on whose NEV share you look at; you can choose between second and fifth.
For the PB predictions competition and for my bets it is the BBC/Curtice NEV I use.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
I’ve tried that. It’s nice. But I think slightly overpriced. English whites are not quite yet at the level of English fizz
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
BBC is miles behind in only counting councils when fully announced.
Sky has Lib Dem gains in England up at 142 councillors, so almost double the BBC.
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
Sky is showing them +142, and I think it's more up to date.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Well go and look. I absolutely promise you it's a great place. They have a magnificent range of wines. As posted in my edit: Salusbury wines. Obviously I have no connection etc.
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
Yes. Greek food is also improving fast - following the wine
I went to Athens in the post Covid summer of 2022 and had it basically to myself. It was glorious. And I ate in loads of cool new restaurants. The food was generally excellent
The Greeks know how to keep it simple yet delicious
I don’t know why the wine suddenly got so good. But it did
Looking ahead, a pretty interesting by-election coming up.
Aberdeen South will become vacant due to Stephen Flynn transferring to Holyrood.
The 2024 result:
SNP Stephen Flynn 15,213 32.8 −12.5 Labour M. Tauqeer Malik 11,455 24.7 +15.9 Conservative John Wheeler 11,300 24.4 −10.0 Reform Michael Pearce 3,199 6.9 +6.5 Liberal Democrats Jeff Goodhall 2,921 6.3 −4.4 Green Guy Ingerson 1,609 3.5 +3.0 Scottish Family Graeme Craib 423 0.9 N/A Independent Sophie Molly 225 0.5 N/A
Oh please let Sophie Molly run again, there's a lack of novelty candidates in Scotland.
Anyone see the Guga guy at Edinburgh Central count?
I saw the pic. Angus R. giving every sign of not finding it funny.
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
BBC is miles behind in only counting councils when fully announced.
Sky has Lib Dem gains in England up at 142 councillors, so almost double the BBC.
The BBC count them differently. They compare them with the last time the same seats were up even if since then theres been defections and by-elections .
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave.
I think @OnlyLivingBoy was right this morning, in the comfortably off London suburbs people aren't looking to "roll the dice" so the Tories are holding up very well vs Reform and Labour against the Greens. I'm surprised the same phenomenon didn't extent to other large city suburbs. Birmingham and Manchester look like a wipe out for Labour.
In Westminster the Labour administration has been pretty indistinguishable from the prior Tory continuum. There have been bits and pieces of wokeness leaking out of Labour's well chaperoned seams, but quite limited.
Best back to Tory though.
Elsewhere - I'm fairly sure that the police will have to be quite present in some town halls where there's a strong Green/Reform split. It'll be no loss to the nation if they go in heavy handed.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
Depends on whose NEV share you look at; you can choose between second and fifth.
For the PB predictions competition and for my bets it is the BBC/Curtice NEV I use.
Not for the first time my gut feel failed me when I predicted Reform to underperform in Scotland. They will have picked up a large chunk of their votes from former SNP supporters, nota bene those of us who see Scottish politics purely in independence versus unionism terms.
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
I’ve tried that. It’s nice. But I think slightly overpriced. English whites are not quite yet at the level of English fizz
That too many English winemakers use these easy-to-grow never-heard-of grapes that no serious winemaking country would bother with, remains a clue.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Well go and look. I absolutely promise you it's a great place. They have a magnificent range of wines. As posted in my edit: Salusbury wines. Obviously I have no connection etc.
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
Yes. Greek food is also improving fast - following the wine
I went to Athens in the post Covid summer of 2022 and had it basically to myself. It was glorious. And I ate in loads of cool new restaurants. The food was generally excellent
The Greeks know how to keep it simple yet delicious
I don’t know why the wine suddenly got so good. But it did
Same revolution that happened in most of SE Europe and West Asia in the last couple of decades: winemaking had been traditional and beset with faults like oxidation and volatile acidity, or mass produced in Soviet style factories from “international” varieties. New generation of winemakers who’d been to proper wine college and learned from working in France, Spain, Italy and the New World came along and shook things up, and rediscovered traditional varieties. As you found recently in Turkey (and very much the case in Georgia and Armenia).
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
BBC is miles behind in only counting councils when fully announced.
Sky has Lib Dem gains in England up at 142 councillors, so almost double the BBC.
The BBC count them differently. They compare them with the last time the same seats were up even if since then theres been defections and by-elections .
Yep. On the island, last time, the LDs got one seat, but won three more in subsequent by-elections, making four. One of those stood down and her seat wasn’t held, the other three got re-elected, and they gained the Tory MP’s former seat, so still on four. BBC has that as three gains. So a fair few of the LD gains arise from holding seats already gained in a by-election. The advantage of the BBC methodology is that you can track party electoral performance from one round of locals to the next, without having to account for defections and by-election changes during the intervening period.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
The LibDems will be disappointed in England not have done better. But they'll be very happy with their Scottish result: some of the swings they achieved, particularly in the Highlands have been enormous.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
I’ve tried that. It’s nice. But I think slightly overpriced. English whites are not quite yet at the level of English fizz
That too many English winemakers use these easy-to-grow never-heard-of grapes that no serious winemaking country would bother with, remains a clue.
That they are now selling it and making a good profit provides another.
Robert Peston @Peston · 1h Pretty much every member of the cabinet has tweeted some version of “it’s all very sad what’s happened but sacking the boss would be worse” - apart from Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood
The Lib Dems are currently only up by 79 councillors. It's like they're determined to get to 20 years of increased councillors in a row by only making tiny incremental gains at each election.
BBC is miles behind in only counting councils when fully announced.
Sky has Lib Dem gains in England up at 142 councillors, so almost double the BBC.
The BBC count them differently. They compare them with the last time the same seats were up even if since then theres been defections and by-elections .
I want to see the difference compared to the last election, so that I can see how the votes have changed, not with all the defections, etc, messing the comparison up.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
[Rayner] is now seriously considering launching a leadership bid in the coming days. The Times reported that last week, and my understanding is the same. Whether she does, however, depends on how Starmer handles the coming hours, and what the mood in the party is.
Rayner recently joked to friends “you’ll have to drag Keir out of Number 10, and you’ll have to drag me in.” She seems increasingly willing to be dragged.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
I’ve tried that. It’s nice. But I think slightly overpriced. English whites are not quite yet at the level of English fizz
That too many English winemakers use these easy-to-grow never-heard-of grapes that no serious winemaking country would bother with, remains a clue.
Fewer and fewer do. But Bacchus is decent (not my taste but I can appreciate it).
Best still whites are Chardonnays and Pinots Blanc/Gris from a small handful of very good sites. The best 2 are probably Danbury Ridge Chardonnay (Burgundian quality) and Oxney Organic Chardonnay.
Exceptional political trolling from Zelenskyy by issuing a decree claiming he is authorising the 9 May parade in Moscow to go ahead (by agreeing to this 3 day ceasefire)
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Doesn't that mean pollsters should be disappointed?
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave.
I think @OnlyLivingBoy was right this morning, in the comfortably off London suburbs people aren't looking to "roll the dice" so the Tories are holding up very well vs Reform and Labour against the Greens. I'm surprised the same phenomenon didn't extent to other large city suburbs. Birmingham and Manchester look like a wipe out for Labour.
In Westminster the Labour administration has been pretty indistinguishable from the prior Tory continuum. There have been bits and pieces of wokeness leaking out of Labour's well chaperoned seams, but quite limited.
Best back to Tory though.
Elsewhere - I'm fairly sure that the police will have to be quite present in some town halls where there's a strong Green/Reform split. It'll be no loss to the nation if they go in heavy handed.
It appears the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street was a big issue. One wonders where this will now end up. The GLA are very much in favour, but local residents are against it.
SNP & Greens have enough to form a majority. Referendum now!
Referendum now? Really? Why do you think there's a mandate for that when there's a combined 40.4% of the constituency vote for the two parties proposing secession, compared to 58.4% for those opposing it, excluding 1.4% of "others"?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
I’ve tried that. It’s nice. But I think slightly overpriced. English whites are not quite yet at the level of English fizz
That too many English winemakers use these easy-to-grow never-heard-of grapes that no serious winemaking country would bother with, remains a clue.
Lots of english wine is grown in Chelmsford and mixed into under other brands anyway
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
SNP & Greens have enough to form a majority. Referendum now!
Referendum now? Really? Why do you think there's a mandate for that when there's a combined 40.4% of the constituency vote for the two parties proposing secession, compared to 58.4% for those opposing it, excluding 1.4% of "others"?
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
Yorkshire Live having trouble with their spell checker or upset at Bradford's results:
As the ocunt contunies during the election in Bradford, so far Reform ar in the lead with 20 seats, reepresenting 31% of the votes. Labour currently has 10 seats and the Tories have six.
You can find pout who has been elected so far here.
We have some immediate by-elections arising from the London results. The new Hackney Mayor Zoë Garbett was also re-elected as a councillor in Dalston, so that seat has been vacated. Meanwhile in Camden, one of the new Grn cllrs for Regent's Park is disqualified due to working for the council.
1) Reform have done great, but I don't think well enough to win a majority. Not yet. Their areas of strength will see them to north of 200 seats but short of a majority as there is significant opposition, and it's becoming clear who is competitive regionally.
2) The Tories aren't dead. They are losing seats to Reform and aren't recovering in the Southern Wall lost to the Lib Dems. But there are still certain areas that are uniquely Tory and not susceptible to either of these.
3) The Greens haven't reached the 'tipping point'. They have done well but their vote is not as well distributed as some of the other parties. At this level they'd probably be similar to Reform last time: lots of second places but disappointingly few wins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to build on their momentum.
4) Given the above, I expect a Reform-Tory coalition or similar is the most likely next government. But three years is a long time in politics so who knows...
Here's a question. Who the heck is going to run Birmingham?
God knows. Greens now in second place, just behind Reform.
I guess the other question in Brum is, why would anyone want to run the city?
Does the bin strike have any plausible resolution?
The LD suggestion was to outsource bin collection, like many other councils do. Then the equal pay issue is no longer relevant. I guess Reform and the Tories would also support this.
Here's a question. Who the heck is going to run Birmingham?
God knows. Greens now in second place, just behind Reform.
I guess the other question in Brum is, why would anyone want to run the city?
Does the bin strike have any plausible resolution?
The bin strike is resolved, IIRC. But the resolution could not be signed because of purdah.
"However, local elections on 7 May mean the authority, currently Labour run, is prevented from voting to make a final decision because of pre-poll restrictions on policy changes."
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Doesn't that mean pollsters should be disappointed?
In part, but if parties are underperforming their polling, and you think the local elections are a more reliable guide than polling, then it implies their support is lower than we thought, which is not good for those parties.
1) Reform have done great, but I don't think well enough to win a majority. Not yet. Their areas of strength will see them to north of 200 seats but short of a majority as there is significant opposition, and it's becoming clear who is competitive regionally.
2) The Tories aren't dead. They are losing seats to Reform and aren't recovering in the Southern Wall lost to the Lib Dems. But there are still certain areas that are uniquely Tory and not susceptible to either of these.
3) The Greens haven't reached the 'tipping point'. They have done well but their vote is not as well distributed as some of the other parties. At this level they'd probably be similar to Reform last time: lots of second places but disappointingly few wins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to build on their momentum.
4) Given the above, I expect a Reform-Tory coalition or similar is the most likely next government. But three years is a long time in politics so who knows...
Reform's balloon has been gently deflating over the past 6-9 month.
By the time of the election, they will look like one of those Christmas balloons you find behind the sofa in April.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower than shown by the polls.
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
The last time that happened in 1976 there was no suggestion of a GE. I suspect the Bond Markets would be even more spooked by a GE during a UK financial crisis.
Yes. A general election would only be called in those circumstances if the Commons refused to pass an austerity budget, otherwise it would create panic in the bond markets.
You all seem to be missing the point, if I might say so. Jenrick (cleverly?) didn't give any indication of when. And, a general election is absolutely inevitable. We have them every 5 years.
Here's a question. Who the heck is going to run Birmingham?
God knows. Greens now in second place, just behind Reform.
I guess the other question in Brum is, why would anyone want to run the city?
Does the bin strike have any plausible resolution?
The bin strike is resolved, IIRC. But the resolution could not be signed because of purdah.
"However, local elections on 7 May mean the authority, currently Labour run, is prevented from voting to make a final decision because of pre-poll restrictions on policy changes."
So it's not resolved, because Unite might discover that a disparate coalition of Reform etc is not prepared to settle on the same terms as the previous Labour administration. It's called overplaying your hand.
1) Reform have done great, but I don't think well enough to win a majority. Not yet. Their areas of strength will see them to north of 200 seats but short of a majority as there is significant opposition, and it's becoming clear who is competitive regionally.
2) The Tories aren't dead. They are losing seats to Reform and aren't recovering in the Southern Wall lost to the Lib Dems. But there are still certain areas that are uniquely Tory and not susceptible to either of these.
3) The Greens haven't reached the 'tipping point'. They have done well but their vote is not as well distributed as some of the other parties. At this level they'd probably be similar to Reform last time: lots of second places but disappointingly few wins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to build on their momentum.
4) Given the above, I expect a Reform-Tory coalition or similar is the most likely next government. But three years is a long time in politics so who knows...
The uniquely Tory point is an interesting one, and one I’ve also clocked. There are still plenty of redoubts up and down the country. One of the things I have long thought is that if Reform were on course for a majority those Tory wards (which I think are generally the leafy affluent suburbs of population centres) would reliably start flipping. But they haven’t - not yet - at least not in the numbers to give Reform the numbers to win.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower than shown by the polls.
Sure, but my point is the "disaster" is for the polling not Reform...
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
I'm not sure I really buy that. But maybe.
Looking at Peter Kellner's ready reckoner for judging the results, only the Tories have reached a number of seats that equals to relief. The other parties are down at disappointment or disaster levels, though with more councillors to be elected.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
Other parties apart from winners Reform of course
Nope. Reform are (BBC) currently on ~1,400 councillors which was classified by Kellner as a disaster.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Pegging reality to a model instead of a model to reality is a bold approach.
Models are useful to help us understand reality. Here the model suggests that Reform did not do as well in the local elections as suggested by the polling, which suggests that their support is lower than shown by the polls.
Except the NEV is almost bang on Reforms polling average.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Well go and look. I absolutely promise you it's a great place. They have a magnificent range of wines. As posted in my edit: Salusbury wines. Obviously I have no connection etc.
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
Yes. Greek food is also improving fast - following the wine
I went to Athens in the post Covid summer of 2022 and had it basically to myself. It was glorious. And I ate in loads of cool new restaurants. The food was generally excellent
The Greeks know how to keep it simple yet delicious
I don’t know why the wine suddenly got so good. But it did
Same revolution that happened in most of SE Europe and West Asia in the last couple of decades: winemaking had been traditional and beset with faults like oxidation and volatile acidity, or mass produced in Soviet style factories from “international” varieties. New generation of winemakers who’d been to proper wine college and learned from working in France, Spain, Italy and the New World came along and shook things up, and rediscovered traditional varieties. As you found recently in Turkey (and very much the case in Georgia and Armenia).
Well, yes, I kinda knew that (but thanks, nonetheless) but Greece seems to have gone beyond this into a new level of whites. Sensational
The reds are improving, as well
Did I tell you I went to the oldest winery in the world? It's in Armenia, A cave, 6000BC or something. The wild thing is that you can buy a bottle next door made of the SAME GRAPE
‘ Sarah Ferguson's secret 'friends with benefits' relationship with P. Diddy: It lasted for years, now ANDREW LOWNIE reveals illicit trysts with 'bad boy' rapper that'll have world agog’
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
Or, if you're Dan Hodges, move on to the same prediction.
My general impression is today we saw a fight between the knuckle dragging morons and the high-minded intellectuals - which ended in a score draw. On to round 2.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
Or, if you're Dan Hodges, move on to the same prediction.
We should feel bad for him, I think he's stuck in a groundhog day loop even though time moves on for the rest of us.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Perhaps Desperate Dan should resign if he continually fails to deliver anything but bad predictions that Keir Starmer is about to resign.
Pundits are not judged by the quality of their predictions or none of them would ever last in the job.
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
I am told it is harder than it looks, being a columnist. You have to produce a whole new opinion twice a week. And make it sound fresh and new and interesting. You are BOUND to say things which are stupid in retrospect. That is accepted, as part of the deal. The key is to keep the audience engaged
And that Hodges does. We all quote him. I've also met him and he's a nice chap. Intense, but nice. Good bloke
Not many people could so easily cope with facial disfigurement and a world famous Mum who exposed her pubes to 300 million people
Looking like a bit of a shitshow in Birmingham. There’s still 22 seats to declare, but a majority is 51 and right now no one has more than 17.
The electoral system is not fit for purpose.
So which alternative electoral system would deliver a majority in Birmingham based on yesterday's vote share?
Part of the problem is that Birmingham is the largest council in the country with around 1.2m residents. They should chop it up. A North Brum, would be Con/Ref, South Brum probably Con/Ref and then Central Brum Green/Indie
Comments
https://bsky.app/profile/lewisbaston.bsky.social/post/3mldx3dmvwk24
The downside of an airwar campaign. Havering was the opposite; a lot of Reform's winning percentages weren't spectacular, but they got them almost everywhere.
Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Labour’s affiliated unions have demanded a meeting with the PM “to discuss the urgent change in direction that we all know is needed”
NOTE: This is not just from the Labour left unions – it’s from *all* of them – and Tulo is chaired by a leadership-friendly union general secretary
Greek white wine has improved. I was in Thessaloniki last year and you can wander into food and wine that would get michelin stars here.
He will get his nice house as FM and 6 figure salary though staying as head of the Scottish government. SNP voting fodder done their job for him of getting him back in power while he doesn't reach the total he needs to have to push the hassle of indyref2 with the UK government
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer
Amusingly I think I’ve seen Offord accuse the SCons of dividing the Unionist vote and Findlay accuse Reform of the same.
Sky has Lib Dem gains in England up at 142 councillors, so almost double the BBC.
I went to Athens in the post Covid summer of 2022 and had it basically to myself. It was glorious. And I ate in loads of cool new restaurants. The food was generally excellent
The Greeks know how to keep it simple yet delicious
I don’t know why the wine suddenly got so good. But it did
Who the heck is going to run Birmingham?
Best back to Tory though.
Elsewhere - I'm fairly sure that the police will have to be quite present in some town halls where there's a strong Green/Reform split. It'll be no loss to the nation if they go in heavy handed.
Trouble is that, unlike Westminster governments, councils don't have the escape hatch of calling fresh elections.
So the Tories have done a bit better than their polling suggested, and we wait to see how the other parties have fared.
@Peston
·
1h
Pretty much every member of the cabinet has tweeted some version of “it’s all very sad what’s happened but sacking the boss would be worse” - apart from Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood
https://x.com/Peston/status/2052809902297399717
Reform 21 (+21)
Ind 9 (+4)
Grn 6 (+3)
LD 5 (-5)
Con 4 (-5)
Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
So it looks like Reform have underperformed expectations based on polling by some distance.
Rayner recently joked to friends “you’ll have to drag Keir out of Number 10, and you’ll have to drag me in.” She seems increasingly willing to be dragged.
New Statesman
https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/2052811561173946753
Best still whites are Chardonnays and Pinots Blanc/Gris from a small handful of very good sites. The best 2 are probably Danbury Ridge Chardonnay (Burgundian quality) and Oxney Organic Chardonnay.
Exceptional political trolling from Zelenskyy by issuing a decree claiming he is authorising the 9 May parade in Moscow to go ahead (by agreeing to this 3 day ceasefire)
Very good
Does the bin strike have any plausible resolution?
And it is in @Leon territory.
Richard Osley
@RichardOsley
We have a MESS in Camden. a Green candidate has been elected but is a teacher at one of the borough’s schools… which means you can’t be a councillor. He’s been told he can’t sign the induction papers. By-election likely in Regent’s Park.
https://x.com/RichardOsley/status/2052798411661836502
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
Though "ocunt" might be vaguely familiar.
Absolute shredding of Labour, who have controlled the council pretty much since 1971.
We have some immediate by-elections arising from the London results. The new Hackney Mayor Zoë Garbett was also re-elected as a councillor in Dalston, so that seat has been vacated. Meanwhile in Camden, one of the new Grn cllrs for Regent's Park is disqualified due to working for the council.
My guess is no.
1) Reform have done great, but I don't think well enough to win a majority. Not yet. Their areas of strength will see them to north of 200 seats but short of a majority as there is significant opposition, and it's becoming clear who is competitive regionally.
2) The Tories aren't dead. They are losing seats to Reform and aren't recovering in the Southern Wall lost to the Lib Dems. But there are still certain areas that are uniquely Tory and not susceptible to either of these.
3) The Greens haven't reached the 'tipping point'. They have done well but their vote is not as well distributed as some of the other parties. At this level they'd probably be similar to Reform last time: lots of second places but disappointingly few wins. It remains to be seen if they can continue to build on their momentum.
4) Given the above, I expect a Reform-Tory coalition or similar is the most likely next government. But three years is a long time in politics so who knows...
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-england-scotland-wales-2026-starmer-12593360?postid=11655214#liveblog-body
"However, local elections on 7 May mean the authority, currently Labour run, is prevented from voting to make a final decision because of pre-poll restrictions on policy changes."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqxlxv0vvnxo
Could be a paper candidate not expecting to have a chance.
Kemi fans, please explain.
By the time of the election, they will look like one of those Christmas balloons you find behind the sofa in April.
Yay!
Squeaky bum time.
Looking like a bit of a shitshow in Birmingham. There’s still 22 seats to declare, but a majority is 51 and right now no one has more than 17.
The electoral system is not fit for purpose.
"Apollo astronauts saw UFOs from the Moon, new files reveal"
It's their job to shift effortlessly on to the next prediction when the last one does not occur and provide colour commentary on events of the day in a way that pleases their paymasters and audiences.
The reds are improving, as well
Did I tell you I went to the oldest winery in the world? It's in Armenia, A cave, 6000BC or something. The wild thing is that you can buy a bottle next door made of the SAME GRAPE
OK, it's disgusting, but still
‘ Sarah Ferguson's secret 'friends with benefits' relationship with P. Diddy: It lasted for years, now ANDREW LOWNIE reveals illicit trysts with 'bad boy' rapper that'll have world agog’
https://x.com/dailymail/status/2052785265542881287?s=61
https://x.com/sarahllester/status/2052837214183145965?s=20
Except the vast numbers of tits are writing for it.
And that Hodges does. We all quote him. I've also met him and he's a nice chap. Intense, but nice. Good bloke
Not many people could so easily cope with facial disfigurement and a world famous Mum who exposed her pubes to 300 million people