Apparently the new Mayor of Hackney has won a seat on the Council. However, she can't, as mayor, also be a councillor, so there's a by-election lined up.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
So, the Tories write off the 72 Lib Dem seats, do they not need any of them?
We've had 22 years of that here in Westmorland. You can't out Farron Farron by being more like Farron. The best we did was 2017 when we had the most Reformesque candidate and were committed to Brexit and leave. And that was the same election that May almost lost nationally.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
Don't be ridiculous. Labour under Starmer have been disappointing but remember who was the party of Austerity, Brexit and Boris Johnson Covid capers.
So Reform enter GE29 with a record to defend. Makes life a little easier for their opponents. The silver lining for the Tories is that they can be insurgents despite their baggage.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
Astute
No idea where the exact truth lies over Lab to Reform transfer, though in the northern wall it feels pretty obvious that it is happening. However, for a bit of boring data, the regular stuff in polling about where the 2024 vote has gone is informative even if not definitive.
So, for example, YouGov recently said this of the 2024 Labour vote and where it would vote now (% points):
Lab 46 Green 20 LDs 12 Reform 10 Bar 11 (this includes Tories at 4!)
This will be regionally variable. Hampstead, Oxford, and Cambridge Labour votes won't drift off identically to Barnsley and Hartlepool ones. (Try meeting them all and having a chat.) So in places it is obvious that the churn Lab to Reform is going to be substantial.
So Reform enter GE29 with a record to defend. Makes life a little easier for their opponents. The silver lining for the Tories is that they can be insurgents despite their baggage.
There’s still a ways to go before a good number of councils actually get controlled by Reform. Because of the elections in thirds a good number won’t return Reform majorities for a couple of years yet (if they continue to do well).
Conservatives hold Frognal: lots of incumbents holding on here.
Frognal is very Jewish. This result is unsurprising after Kemi's admirable speeches on anti-Semitism
The Jewish vote is now as solidly Tory as the C of E vote used to be
Yes, I'm shocked that rich people in big houses who returned Mrs Thatcher for decades voted Conservative. Class and wealth trump religion.
Jewish areas massively out-Tory non Jewish equivalent areas though. Prestwich/Broughton is rather more favourable to the Conservatives than Didsbury/Withington.
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
I doubt that either of these extremely smart chaps is unaware that a lot of people who previously voted Labour now vote Reform, especially given their academic area of focus. I've never met Rob Ford but I have chatted to John Curtice and he strikes me as far more interested in analyzing the numbers than in putting his own spin on them, whatever that may be. S classic academic, in other words. As an aside, I spent a decent chunk of my childhood in a somewhat down at heel neighbourhood in a northern English city and a lot of the folks voting Labour at the time also held bracingly rightwing views on pretty much every issue - they were Labour because the party was born from the union movement and looked after people like them through things like council housing. Trade unions themselves often had leadership far to the left of the rank and file, often because Left wing leaders negotiated better deals. So there may be some naive tofu eating leftists who have no idea how a lot of working class people see the world, but I'm not one of them!
The point of which being, again, it is not so much that that segment of the population has changed its mind; it is is that now there is a party which expresses that view.
The locals blame their ills on ‘darkies’ and other foreigners like they blamed the EU. No need to look in the mirror when there is a finger to point. Same old I’m afraid.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Kentish Town South: Labour hold 3. Greens notch up another good 2nd.
Haverstock ward: same result. Labour hold, Greens close 2nd. FPTP will turn a narrow Labour lead in vote share over the Borough into a healthy seat lead.
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
Kemi certainly secure then, Starmer probably too as Labour have beaten the Greens and the PM's biggest rival in Parliament Rayner's main platform was she could win back votes Labour lost to the Greens
Looks like the SNP losing fairly badly across Edinburgh: Southern to Labour, Northern to Lib Dems and Central maybe green.
Any idea why?
My guess is partly an aversion to the horror show of indyref2, but I confess Scottish national politics is as opaque to me in a way Camden ain't
Is there local stuff? Badly run city?
It looks like a mixed night for the SNP: poor performance in Edinburgh, and some of the islands; but a very strong one in Shetland, which has -historically- been a LibDem stronghold.
Labour down 13 seats in Birmingham after 34 of 101.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
According to a knowledgeable (Lib Dem) activist the Greens were always going to peak late in the counts, and would therefore not get the attention from media reporting as a result. Seems to be bearing out so far.
Final result in Rochdale, with Reform gaining Spotland and Failinge from Labour by 9 votes. That leaves: Labour 31 (held 2, lost 12) Reform 15 (gained 13) Conservative 7 (held 1, lost 1) Workers' Party 4 (held 2) LD 3 (held 1)
The locals blame their ills on ‘darkies’ and other foreigners like they blamed the EU. No need to look in the mirror when there is a finger to point. Same old I’m afraid.
What do you mean ‘what do you expect’
I put ‘as expected’ in my post you fucking retard.
Looks like the SNP losing fairly badly across Edinburgh: Southern to Labour, Northern to Lib Dems and Central maybe green.
Any idea why?
My guess is partly an aversion to the horror show of indyref2, but I confess Scottish national politics is as opaque to me in a way Camden ain't
Is there local stuff? Badly run city?
It looks like a mixed night for the SNP: poor performance in Edinburgh, and some of the islands; but a very strong one in Shetland, which has -historically- been a LibDem stronghold.
Labour having gained two seats in Scotland was not on my bingo card for the day. (Albeit it's still early days.)
Labour down 13 seats in Birmingham after 34 of 101.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
The great advantage of FPTP is it tends to produce majorities...
Labour down 13 seats in Birmingham after 34 of 101.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
"This [Reform vote] will decline significantly as we approach a GE."
You have absolutely no firm idea if this will happen. No one does. Pure hopecasting
Greenwich going quite for Labour so far. 13 Lab, 1 Ref, 0 Green (though a few near misses). Most of the action, so far, though, has been in the hinterlands.
The locals blame their ills on ‘darkies’ and other foreigners like they blamed the EU. No need to look in the mirror when there is a finger to point. Same old I’m afraid.
What do you mean ‘what do you expect’
I put ‘as expected’ in my post you fucking retard.
Hmmm. Go lie down my friend! You’ve been up a long time…
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
The only way Labour could push the Reform vote back down (short of Farage imploding) would be by embracing McSweeney's strategy of delivering on things like leaving the ECHR and genuinely putting the interests of those voters first, but it's almost impossible to imagine that happening now.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Greenwich going quite for Labour so far. 13 Lab, 1 Ref, 0 Green (though a few near misses). Most of the action, so far, though, has been in the hinterlands.
Interesting and surprising. I was expecting a Green takeover in Lewisham but those results suggest maybe not.
Tories losing close to half their seats. Kemi's take: "The Conservatives are coming back!"
She is deluded.
My solid blue area is now a shade of teal. Looks like they lost the farming vote but kept the usual subjects (Kippers). They even knocked out a couple of long standing independents who worked hard for their constituents.
Fewer PB Centrist Dads claiming that Farage is a total and perpetual loser, I note
When you step back, what he has done - AGAIN - is quite astonishing
Reform will be running a lot of councils after today.
The exposure will begin.
Most of their gains seem to be coming in councils electing by thirds. So we have two more cycles of this to go through before they are running a lot of councils.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
No it isn't. Only in Leave-voting areas (which obviously is still in a majority of the country), which is far short of what the SNP achieved.
lol, k, Mister Copey McCopeface
I'm quite happy to see Labour get a kicking, although sure I don't like to see Reform winning, but I'm merely correcting your bizarre inability to cope with numbers, once again.
Also, you're being boring and stupid.
The pattern identified of Reform support following the Leave vote is useful information for people looking to predict the next election. Your mindless ramping and abuse, less so.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
"This [Reform vote] will decline significantly as we approach a GE."
You have absolutely no firm idea if this will happen. No one does. Pure hopecasting
I think the sustained nature of their polling, likely given a boost by great results today, will not fade that easily. The supporters know they will win many MPs if they lead, they won't be easily spooked off.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
No it isn't. Only in Leave-voting areas (which obviously is still in a majority of the country), which is far short of what the SNP achieved.
lol, k, Mister Copey McCopeface
I'm quite happy to see Labour get a kicking, although sure I don't like to see Reform winning, but I'm merely correcting your bizarre inability to cope with numbers, once again.
Also, you're being boring and stupid.
The pattern identified of Reform support following the Leave vote is useful information for people looking to predict the next election. Your mindless ramping and abuse, less so.
Fewer PB Centrist Dads claiming that Farage is a total and perpetual loser, I note
When you step back, what he has done - AGAIN - is quite astonishing
Reform will be running a lot of councils after today.
The exposure will begin.
That will take years. Most are normal enough and officers keep the plates spinning.
I also think once you dig a bit deeper a fairly large proportion of the newly elected Refoem councillors will be formerly Tory anyway and will have enough experience not to completely fuck up bin collections or anything very visible.
John curtice forecast on BBC, Tories highest prediction is 3 constituency seats, Greens 1. Not sure how he gets that as Ettrick and Aberdeenshire west both sound like Tory holds and the Tories have 2 seats confirmed Greens were talking up chances in Glasgow Southside but may fall short there
Comments
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
2 members elected:
Lab 1,292
Con 1,290
Con 1,285
So Con very close to 2 gains, Lab just held on to one seat, could be important.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
https://x.com/nadiawhittomemp/status/2052743555936838075?s=61
LDs going backwards in quite a few of their remaining more traditionally Labour areas, like Hull and struggling here.
In Almondbury they were nobbled by Reform due to a 15% Green vote share, despite being the incumbents.
The current one's official picture has him with a (real!) red rose in his buttonhole, so I suspect he was a defection:
https://democracy.cambridge.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=1218
Independent - 11
Conservative - 2
Labour - 1
Liberal Democrat - 4
Green - 2
Reform UK - 19
Reform one short
A procession as expected.
No indyref2
EDIT: I may have misheard Laura K and it was the Libs?
Do we know what happened there?
First time in British electoral history, they claim, a head of govt has lost their seat.
Couldn’t happen to a better person.
😂😂😂😂🥂🥂🥂🥂
Oh, the howling...
Or might he?
So, for example, YouGov recently said this of the 2024 Labour vote and where it would vote now (% points):
Lab 46
Green 20
LDs 12
Reform 10
Bar 11 (this includes Tories at 4!)
This will be regionally variable. Hampstead, Oxford, and Cambridge Labour votes won't drift off identically to Barnsley and Hartlepool ones. (Try meeting them all and having a chat.) So in places it is obvious that the churn Lab to Reform is going to be substantial.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_Results_260505_w.pdf
😂
The exposure will begin.
The locals blame their ills on ‘darkies’ and other foreigners like they blamed the EU. No need to look in the mirror when there is a finger to point. Same old I’m afraid.
My guess is partly an aversion to the horror show of indyref2, but I confess Scottish national politics is as opaque to me in a way Camden ain't
Is there local stuff? Badly run city?
Ref 18
Green 7
Labour 1
Indy 1
Restore have a future as the thorn in the side of Reform in the same way that UKIP were to the Tories.
She is deluded.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
Labour 31 (held 2, lost 12)
Reform 15 (gained 13)
Conservative 7 (held 1, lost 1)
Workers' Party 4 (held 2)
LD 3 (held 1)
Ref 15
LD 12
Labour 6
I put ‘as expected’ in my post you fucking retard.
Your thoughts so far ?
See most Tory seats were in your neck of the woods.
Druids Heath must have changed a bit since I was around there.
Remind you of anything?
(But at least the SNP have a charismatic superstar in John Swinney.)
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
You have absolutely no firm idea if this will happen. No one does. Pure hopecasting
"This is great but I want to see Labour people in tears. Live. On TV"
Easy win for the Greens, nearly 4,600 ahead in Edinburgh Central. Angus Robertson in 3rd place, out of parliament
LDs second on 4 constituency seats
(Reform manage a (distant) third. Their best ward so far in Camden.)
Also, you're being boring and stupid.
The pattern identified of Reform support following the Leave vote is useful information for people looking to predict the next election. Your mindless ramping and abuse, less so.
Lab 13
Con 12
Ref 4
LD 1
Greens were talking up chances in Glasgow Southside but may fall short there