Anyway, in a piece of remarkable serendipity I'm in Parliament this afternoon (yes really!) and am thus well placed to pick up the scuttlebut on Starmer plans. Will report back on anything relevant.
Three Labour holds in Manchester now, I think. But, I think, 16 Labour losses now.
In Manchester. Which for the last fifteen years or so has never had more non-Labour wins at an election than can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in their last nadir in the Brown era there were only seven or eight wards in which non-Labour (the LDs, in those days) were viable.
This is in what we kept being told (and I think it is true) is the best-run city in the country, which is outgrowing London.
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
I can't say I've noticed any flirting with Lib Demmery under Badenoch!
Lol, but there's a kernel of truth there. Today we can see why Labour were so desperate to cancel local elections in a third of the seats up for re-election. They could have dragged out their reorg for another few years just to cover up how badly they're really doing.
Three Labour holds in Manchester now, I think. But, I think, 16 Labour losses now.
In Manchester. Which for the last fifteen years or so has never had more non-Labour wins at an election than can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in their last nadir in the Brown era there were only seven or eight wards in which non-Labour (the LDs, in those days) were viable.
This is in what we kept being told (and I think it is true) is the best-run city in the country, which is outgrowing London.
Doesn't really say much for Burnham's vote-winning powers?
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Liberal Democrat LOSS to No Overall Control Changes w/ 2022 for outgoing councillors.
Didn't win in Shetland either where they have lost a constituency to the SNP. A bit ominous that. Makes an SNP majority just a bit more credible. Good result for them in Aberdeen Central as well.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
BBC WATO analysis by Jonny Diamond is Reform and Nigel are smashing it out of the park. BBC loving the Labour bloodbath. Criticism of Tories too.
Not much comment on other parties, but eulogising Team Farage.
Reform has clearly had a good local elections despite declining figures in the opinion polls. What would you like the BBC to say?
Reform have done well but with no scrutiny and much eulogising from the BBC, particularly its Political Editor.
My surprise is the headlines didn't comment upon the good night had by other parties. They love the story of plucky Nigel reaching Downing Street from nowhere.
Never mind dead duck Starmer. Do we think Badenoch has done enough?
Regaining the flagship Westminster council is big. Mixed results elsewhere. No obvious rival. But as with Labour, backbenchers will spend Monday extrapolating from their local council results to their own seats and panicking accordingly.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Furious Scottish Labour MP tells me: “We offered the people of Scotland nothing and gifted the SNP a free run after all their arrests and incompetence. Another cataclysmic campaign led by Douglas Alexander. The world he can remain in the Cabinet does not exist.”
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
I've stopped by Primrose Hill. Looks like it will be a Labour hold, Tories second, but Greens a close third maybe. Reform beating the LibDems for fourth.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Furious Scottish Labour MP tells me: “We offered the people of Scotland nothing and gifted the SNP a free run after all their arrests and incompetence. Another cataclysmic campaign led by Douglas Alexander. The world he can remain in the Cabinet does not exist.”
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Goodness! They stayed LD even after the Clegg debacle. Why did this happen?
Depending on POV the SNP threw hunners of cash and resources at the seat or they had a very good candidate. Both can be true of course.
In fairness I think its both and the sitting Lib Dem was not exactly high profile. Was this not the constituency that the SNP spent more on in a by election than on the whole of the Brexit campaign?
Another Green gain from Lab, another Reform gain from Lab in Manchester. I think Labour are still on three.
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
Another Green gain from Lab, another Reform gain from Lab in Manchester. I think Labour are still on three.
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
That's what happens when the party snub the King of the North.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Goodness! They stayed LD even after the Clegg debacle. Why did this happen?
Depending on POV the SNP threw hunners of cash and resources at the seat or they had a very good candidate. Both can be true of course.
In fairness I think its both and the sitting Lib Dem was not exactly high profile. Was this not the constituency that the SNP spent more on in a by election than on the whole of the Brexit campaign?
You mean the remain vote might have been even higher than 62% if the SNP had flung a bit more cash at it?
Another Green gain from Lab, another Reform gain from Lab in Manchester. I think Labour are still on three.
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
That's what happens when the party snub the King of the North.
Yes terrible up North, maybe not too bad in London
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Another Green gain from Lab, another Reform gain from Lab in Manchester. I think Labour are still on three.
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
Which is why Labour don't want a by-election for GM mayor.
Still a lot of London results to come, so I'm not sure we can yet altogether conclude that it's less disastrous for Lab than elsewhere. I'm waiting for the Greenwich results. Turnout is up over 8 ppts since 2022 (lower turnouts in the more deprived Woolwich and Thamesmead seats - around 40-50% elsewhere). Greens have put in a lot of effort, and will be hoping to get close at least.
'kin 'ell. We won't be able to move for flags on council lampposts after today!
I dunno. Most of the big Reform wins are in mets, which elect by thirds. So they won't actually get into power. Which means we get to draw the whole agony out over another two years.
It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.
How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.
We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.
Unfortunately, as true now as it was in 2008.
I'm not sure it IS actually true.
Don't forget that the man who said it, Juncker, was the ultimate arrogant technocrat, at least until Starmer came along.
Firstly, there's often no single "right" solution - a lot depends on normative assumptions.
Secondly, leaders should lead, not just follow. Stand or fall on their records, and persuade voters to follow them.
Thirdly, he probably didn't know what to do. The main lesson of the last two decades has been that supposedly competent technocrats are often just as incompetent as everyone else.
Fourthly, blaming the voters for your own bad decisions is beyond cowardly.
But of course it's the classic centrist, European elite's contempt for democracy in one quote.
Ruperts Mob pick up the first GY seat by a distance
And a second with 50% of the vote
One wonders what could have happened if they stood in many more areas. Could have hurt Reform .
They did absolutely flood Yamouth with activists tbf, hundreds door knocking
Maybe the BBC can do a nice puff piece on Restore ! It’s only right that they should get some publicity and hopefully can take some votes from Reform in the future !
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
I can't say I've noticed any flirting with Lib Demmery under Badenoch!
Mogg is just talking nonsense in a posh voice so people take it seriously - story of his career and possibly life in general.
Still a lot of London results to come, so I'm not sure we can yet altogether conclude that it's less disastrous for Lab than elsewhere. I'm waiting for the Greenwich results. Turnout is up over 8 ppts since 2022 (lower turnouts in the more deprived Woolwich and Thamesmead seats - around 40-50% elsewhere). Greens have put in a lot of effort, and will be hoping to get close at least.
A few Redbridge turnouts have been published:
27% turnout in Clementswood (part of Ilford South), but 53% in Wanstead Park (part of Leyton & Wanstead).
It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.
How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.
We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.
It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.
How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.
We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
I can't say I've noticed any flirting with Lib Demmery under Badenoch!
Mogg is just talking nonsense in a posh voice so people take it seriously - story of his career and possibly life in general.
People mistake him for a fool, when actually he is a genuinely nasty piece of work.
Can someone convince me that Burnham can find a safe seat in the Manchester area ?
Don't look at what Labour are polling today.
Think about how many ex or absent Labour voters want Burnham instead of Starmer. Then remember that at parliamentary constituency level rather than wards Reform and Green will split the vote and set a lowish bar to win.
Can someone convince me that Burnham can find a safe seat in the Manchester area ?
In his favour: he probably does have enough of a personal vote to see him through in the right seat
Against him: If a constituency electorate is forced to the polls to Vote For A Man You Must Accept As Your MP So He Can Achieve His Goal of Becoming Prime Minister, I’d expect a fairly large anti-vote just to upset the apple cart.
Has to be said, you have to admire the Reform team here at the Aberdeen count. They are wearing the weirdest fucking clothes. Fat man walking around in tight which shorts and a Union Jack T-shirt. Another in a lumberjack shirt and reform baseball hat.
Green hold in Carisbrooke, and the first Reform gain of the afternoon, from the Tories, in Lake S.
Meanwhile Labour has, against all expectations, held the Cowes seat of their former sole councillor now MP for IoW west. Anti Reform tactical voting is doing some power lifting here!
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
Another Green gain from Lab, another Reform gain from Lab in Manchester. I think Labour are still on three.
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
Which is why Labour don't want a by-election for GM mayor.
I wonder whether this might be the beginning of the end for the Burnham challenge. The Manchester results don't seem to be doing him any favours, and it's difficult to see any constituency where he'd be guaranteed a win (I'd guess that deserting the office of Mayor to further his own ambition would not play well were he to stand in a GM seat).
Liberal Democrat LOSS to No Overall Control Changes w/ 2022 for outgoing councillors.
Tories holding up well, obviously it's Tory to Reform and LD/Lab to Tory. Can't be anything else can it?
It can and there was an example here in a by-election a few weeks ago where a LD seat went Reform. The LDs actually went up in share of the vote but the Tory/labour vote collapsed to Reform. This is setting up Reform/LD marginals (happening in Devon as well) where neither party is actually taking votes from each other, but other parties. This is generally what has happened in Gosport I believe. Helped by the LDs failing to stand a candidate in one seat they held (why?) which then became a Tory gain, making the situation look even worse and the Tory position look respectable. The Tories also held their strong seats, although I know the patch I am surprised some of these strong seats are strong Tory and not LD/Tory marginals. They look marginal, but aren't.
Can someone convince me that Burnham can find a safe seat in the Manchester area ?
Don't look at what Labour are polling today.
Think about how many ex or absent Labour voters want Burnham instead of Starmer. Then remember that at parliamentary constituency level rather than wards Reform and Green will split the vote and set a lowish bar to win.
I think you overstate the appeal of Burnham in Manchester. We like him - but not that much. And we like him for being mayor of GM and advocating for GM - once he gives that up, he also gives up his broad support.
On the results today, there's not a single seat in GM he'd win. Though Trafford hasn't declared yet and is unlikely to sway as Green or Reform as elsewhere in GM.
Comments
https://x.com/tynewearelects/status/2052723262723883380?s=61
But, I think, 16 Labour losses now.
In Manchester. Which for the last fifteen years or so has never had more non-Labour wins at an election than can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in their last nadir in the Brown era there were only seven or eight wards in which non-Labour (the LDs, in those days) were viable.
This is in what we kept being told (and I think it is true) is the best-run city in the country, which is outgrowing London.
https://x.com/gretamsimpson/status/2052724489658499529/photo/1
Meanwhile David McCulloch has just won in Sharston [Manchester] for Reform
@MENnewsdesk
. “I don’t know what to say… I’ll do my best” he said.
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2052711372920676529
Gosport Borough Council Results (half up)
➡️ RFM: 9 (+9)
🌳 CON: 5 (-1)
🔶 LDM: 0 (-7)
🌹 LAB: 0 (-1)
Liberal Democrat LOSS to No Overall Control
Changes w/ 2022 for outgoing councillors.
The passion of Reform. The experience of the system of the Tories.
THE REFORMATORY PARTY.
NEWS: Alistair Carmichael, the LibDem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has congratulated the SNP’s candidate for Shetland Islands, saying it looks as if his party has lost the seat. The shift represents a political earthquake in the far north.
https://x.com/cameronamackay/status/2052717040423612459?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
PRAISE THE LORD
My surprise is the headlines didn't comment upon the good night had by other parties. They love the story of plucky Nigel reaching Downing Street from nowhere.
Furious Scottish Labour MP tells me: “We offered the people of Scotland nothing and gifted the SNP a free run after all their arrests and incompetence. Another cataclysmic campaign led by Douglas Alexander. The world he can remain in the Cabinet does not exist.”
https://x.com/agneschambre/status/2052723454529397245?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I'm agog to see the final score in GM. It feels like Lab will have lost about 90% of what they were defending. I find it implausible to imagine my own seat anything but Lab. And yet, almost everywhere in GM they've been obliterated.
It's 3-0 to the Lib Dems.
FWIW Lib Dems think Edinburgh Northern in the bag.
Significant drops in the Tory vote in both wards declared so far, despite higher turnout
Posh bits sticking with the LibDems.
Reform are polling well but it looks as if the independently minded voters of the island have moved tactically to try and shut them out
There aren’t however enough Indy seats to hold to deliver a majority, so a lot depends on what happens to the Tory and LD seats
And a fourth Indy hold in Binstead
Don't forget that the man who said it, Juncker, was the ultimate arrogant technocrat, at least until Starmer came along.
Firstly, there's often no single "right" solution - a lot depends on normative assumptions.
Secondly, leaders should lead, not just follow. Stand or fall on their records, and persuade voters to follow them.
Thirdly, he probably didn't know what to do. The main lesson of the last two decades has been that supposedly competent technocrats are often just as incompetent as everyone else.
Fourthly, blaming the voters for your own bad decisions is beyond cowardly.
But of course it's the classic centrist, European elite's contempt for democracy in one quote.
27% turnout in Clementswood (part of Ilford South), but 53% in Wanstead Park (part of Leyton & Wanstead).
Think about how many ex or absent Labour voters want Burnham instead of Starmer. Then remember that at parliamentary constituency level rather than wards Reform and Green will split the vote and set a lowish bar to win.
Against him: If a constituency electorate is forced to the polls to Vote For A Man You Must Accept As Your MP So He Can Achieve His Goal of Becoming Prime Minister, I’d expect a fairly large anti-vote just to upset the apple cart.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/england/councils/E10000029
Meanwhile Labour has, against all expectations, held the Cowes seat of their former sole councillor now MP for IoW west. Anti Reform tactical voting is doing some power lifting here!
The other Cowes seat is yet another Indy hold
BBC count so far:
Reform 539 seats
LibDems 332
Tories 302
Labour 285
Greens 105
Inds 44
Are we back to a lawyerly version of Mrs Thatcher's cabinet as featured in Spitting Image?
https://youtu.be/omC3xeCZBX0?t=55
They should join forces with Alba and Change UK. Would be a formidable election winning alliance.
So far the Reform threat isn’t delivering
And another Indy hold in Brading
The Tory and LD seats seem to be counting slower, but here’s the first Tory hold of the day in Fairlee, another Reform target missed
On the results today, there's not a single seat in GM he'd win. Though Trafford hasn't declared yet and is unlikely to sway as Green or Reform as elsewhere in GM.