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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314

    Picture caption time.


    "I was speaking with Angela... Merkel, that is... and she advised me that what I needed was an iconic hand gesture to use when posing for photographs. This is what I came up with."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
    You fully on board with the corrupt crypto grifter now then?
    Not at all. I’d really like an alternative to Nigel fucking Farage. But we are where we are. The country desperately needs a hard right government to put the boot into multiple vested interests, they must also barbecue several dozen sacred cows

    Well for the first time in my life I voted Conservative. I have to say didn't even feel dirty afterwards. Partly because here in Wales there is too much of a dependency culture and I think there is at least an element in the Tories that wants to move on from Thatcher and save western civilisation.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,214

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
    Whatever you’re looking at is not a Union Jack. Try again.
    What I'm looking at is a tedious pedant :p
    I expect SKS has indeed been pictured with a Union Jack, probably Jack McConnell?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
    You fully on board with the corrupt crypto grifter now then?
    Not at all. I’d really like an alternative to Nigel fucking Farage. But we are where we are. The country desperately needs a hard right government to put the boot into multiple vested interests, they must also barbecue several dozen sacred cows

    Would a hard right government do that, or just invest in its own vested interests? Reform give people the right vibes apparently, which I personally find a little odd when they are busy recruiting every ex-Tory they can get their hands on, but the fundamentals do not allow for the easy answers many would hope for, or they'd be done already.

    I feel like Farage actually gets the challenge more than many of his supporters over the years have, hence why he never goes quite as far as many of them would like, and they end up splitting off into forgettable, and indeed forgotten, vanity projects.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    edited May 7
    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    kle4 said:

    Starmer needs about 100 days to beat the George Hamilton-Gordon in the PM rankings. Looks like a struggle. If he doesn't announce a timetable to go in the next 2 weeks he may make it, but the pressure will be immense, and the Cabinet are leaking like a particularly holey sieve.

    I think the idea with announcing a timetable for his departure is that it could buy him some more time.

    Let's say he says something like, "I want to stay as PM until summer 2028, to implement our manifesto and blah, blah, and then allow a new leader to set out their vision for a second Labour term," this reassures everyone that he won't try to lead Labour into the next election, it provides time for Burnham to return to the Commons, it moves the focus from forcing Starmer out to the contest to replace him.

    Maybe 2028 is a stretch, but 2027 could be possible. Particularly as the impetus to replace him doesn't exactly spring from a determination to implement radically different policies.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kylegriffin1.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING MS NOW:

    Kash Patel has ordered the polygraphing of more than two dozen former and current members of his security detail and other staff and has been described as in panic mode to save his job and find leakers among his team, according to two people briefed on the development.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kylegriffin1.bsky.social/post/3mlc4lxzmec2y

    Aren't polygraphs bullshit if people are practiced, calm, liars?
    They also hugely discriminate against the neuro diverse.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    If the rumour is current re Basildon then both the Tories and Labour each lost 4 councillors.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687

    Welfare U-turn was politically the dumbest mistake he made.

    I understand why he didn't want to push it through with Tory votes, but he should have done. Early in the term is the time to be bold.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    Der Spiegel has made the NSDAP membership database searchable online to allow people to check if their family members were Nazis.

    https://www.spiegel.de/geschichte/nsdap-archiv-finden-sie-heraus-was-ihre-familie-unter-hitler-getan-hat-a-4b37a614-a790-4798-92e2-be6a921da384
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miliband has jumped the gun, unless Labour are third or worse on seats and NEV tomorrow I expect Starmer to survive

    I don’t. I think this is it
    No. As long as Labour beat the Tories and Greens on seats and NEV Starmer survives even if Reform win
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him, and I don't mean oh we are disappointed in Labour government performance (they are disappointed in that), but Starmer as a personality it seems to really set people off. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.

    Personally I sort of think of him a bit like the way Rishi wasn't cut out for the top job, seems a nice family man, I am sure is very good as upper middle management crunching the spreadsheets, but never a leader and no grand vision or understanding on how to address big issues. I see Starmer a bit like the public sector equivalent. I am sure both in other times under other leaders probably would have been perfectly good at particular jobs e.g. Rishi under Cameron, Starmer under Blair.

    Both I think have also been bounced into getting increasingly iffy political stuff to try and save their own skin, that blots their copy book as honest bloke doing their best.
    Sunak was not a great election campaigner but he was probably the most competent PM we have had since Cameron, maybe even Blair
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    I posted that earlier today.
    Possible they don't win double figures of councillors between the three of them added together.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,530

    Der Spiegel has made the NSDAP membership database searchable online to allow people to check if their family members were Nazis.

    https://www.spiegel.de/geschichte/nsdap-archiv-finden-sie-heraus-was-ihre-familie-unter-hitler-getan-hat-a-4b37a614-a790-4798-92e2-be6a921da384

    "We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    He's been a disappointment, but the immediacy and severity of the dislike without any honeymoon has been a shock.
    One of the weirdnesses of the 2024GE was that in vote share terms Labour did really badly. They only increased their vote share by 1.6pp when the government party was shedding 19.9pp. Meanwhile you had this massive surge of votes for Reform, taking them to 14.3% and third in vote share, and they only returned 5 MPs.

    I think this was behind a lot of the anger and hostility towards Starmer after the election. FPTP presenting Labour with nearly two-thirds of the seats on barely one-third of the vote was simply enraging.
    There were far more votes to the right of Labour (Lib Dem, Con, Reform) than to the left (Green, SNP, PC, Lefty Indies) at 2024GE.
    So which way should he tack to attract more votes?
    I think his failure to attract more votes was mainly due to not having any sense of purpose. He could have developed a slightly more right-wing sense of purpose, or one to the left, or even a purposeful programme with the same positioning he was aiming for.

    He simply needed to be someone else who was better at politics, in terms of policy detail, political vision, and communication ability.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 7

    Beeb reporting Tory source says Basildon will be a Ref clean sweep (14 wards)

    Reform sweep Basildon and the Pope remains Catholic (Basildon even elected a Reform MP for half the town in 2024)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    edited May 7
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    But of course, it's possible that after Ref/Farage fail, rather than going back to the center Right, people will drift even further to the Hard Right...

    Lets hope not!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 7
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
    You fully on board with the corrupt crypto grifter now then?
    Not at all. I’d really like an alternative to Nigel fucking Farage. But we are where we are. The country desperately needs a hard right government to put the boot into multiple vested interests, they must also barbecue several dozen sacred cows

    Would a hard right government do that, or just invest in its own vested interests? Reform give people the right vibes apparently, which I personally find a little odd when they are busy recruiting every ex-Tory they can get their hands on, but the fundamentals do not allow for the easy answers many would hope for, or they'd be done already.

    I feel like Farage actually gets the challenge more than many of his supporters over the years have, hence why he never goes quite as far as many of them would like, and they end up splitting off into forgettable, and indeed forgotten, vanity projects.
    This is an astute reading. You’re right. Farage comprehends the problems better than 96% of his voters

    It’s one reason I’m prepared to give Reform my vote. Sorting immigration and asylum and finding some workable solution to islamism are necessary but far from sufficient
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    The Tories would be doing even worse if they didn’t have Kemi. Can you imagine their level of unpopularity if Jenrick had won the leadership and had stayed in the party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    The posher and more educated and wealthier the area the better the Tory vote will hold up against Reform. Kensington and Chelsea is probably back to being the safest Tory borough in the UK which it hasn't been since Brexit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miliband has jumped the gun, unless Labour are third or worse on seats and NEV tomorrow I expect Starmer to survive

    I don’t. I think this is it
    No. As long as Labour beat the Tories and Greens on seats and NEV Starmer survives even if Reform win
    What makes you so certain of this arbitrary metric you keep insisting on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    The posher and more educated and wealthier the area the better the Tory vote will hold up against Reform. Kensington and Chelsea is probably back to being the safest Tory borough in the UK which it hasn't been since Brexit
    Blue Lib Dems in type, even if not in policy!
  • MilesPartridgeMilesPartridge Posts: 89
    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    If the results go roughly as expected the best line for the Tories would be to say that if these elections had taken place six months ago they would have been better for Reform and worse for themselves. Try to spin a bit of momentum change is probably the best they can make of it.

    Why is Starmer so disliked personally? Is he? Well assuming he is I would certainly concur with LP about the undeserving landslide. More trivially, I think people can find a dull but honest leader more appealing than a charismatic but devious one. But dull and devious with it? That's worse.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    Norfolk , Suffolk and Essex were always going to be awful for the Tories .

    So too early to say what will happen elsewhere .
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319
    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    The Tories would be doing even worse if they didn’t have Kemi. Can you imagine their level of unpopularity if Jenrick had won the leadership and had stayed in the party?
    There is a graph of Tory Party popularity that shows it going up exponentially when Jenrick leaves
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%

    Is Trump planning to bomb the others?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Having checked Buckinghamshire for last year's results I can see that they have a large group called the 'IMPACT Alliance' which is a fun name. Combination of Labour, Green, Independents, and local Independents.

    I like when smaller parties combine in a political group, some areas seem to forget they can and there's not much advantage to being so tiny.

    (Parties do have rules about this sort of thing, possibly requiring central office to sign off, but if you aren't actually propping up an administration, which is a significant thing for a party to agree to, it shouldn't really matter).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him, and I don't mean oh we are disappointed in Labour government performance (they are disappointed in that), but Starmer as a personality it seems to really set people off. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.

    Personally I sort of think of him a bit like the way Rishi wasn't cut out for the top job, seems a nice family man, I am sure is very good as upper middle management crunching the spreadsheets, but never a leader and no grand vision or understanding on how to address big issues. I see Starmer a bit like the public sector equivalent. I am sure both in other times under other leaders probably would have been perfectly good at particular jobs e.g. Rishi under Cameron, Starmer under Blair.

    Both I think have also been bounced into getting increasingly iffy political stuff to try and save their own skin, that blots their copy book as honest bloke doing their best.
    Character flaws;

    1. He's vindictive
    2. He lacks compassion
    3. He lacks warmth
    4. He's indecisive

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    Get on with it.....
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung.
    In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
    Come to think of it most of the Reform seats in Wiltshire are indeed in less prosperous areas. Not 100% of them, but as a general trend.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 2,027
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
    And yet Essex is prosperous, but Reform are sweeping it. And Northumberland, where the Tories held up well against Reform last year, isn't.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,590

    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%

    As a libdem I would be very surprised if we got second place
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Lammy brings up Breakfast clubs lol
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
    An effective and competent Tory leader in comparison then as I said.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    If the results go roughly as expected the best line for the Tories would be to say that if these elections had taken place six months ago they would have been better for Reform and worse for themselves. Try to spin a bit of momentum change is probably the best they can make of it.

    Why is Starmer so disliked personally? Is he? Well assuming he is I would certainly concur with LP about the undeserving landslide. More trivially, I think people can find a dull but honest leader more appealing than a charismatic but devious one. But dull and devious with it? That's worse.

    No, he’s dull, devious, venal, hypocritical and treacherous

    Hence the overwhelming hatred. Even from my thoroughly Labour friends. They utterly despise him

    This is actually good news for Labour as @CorrectHorseBattery often points out. Starmer is so disliked the mere act of dumping him will give them several points in the polls and an emotional boost. And then maybe they can sustain that 🤷🏼‍♂️
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    edited May 7

    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%

    The GE might end up with a REF government and and a official Lib-Dem Opposition?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%

    The GE might end up with a REF government and and a official Lib-Dem Opposition?
    I just cannot see the LDs breaking through in enough areas, it would take an insane split of Labour/Tory/LD to see them top.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
    He only seemed competent because of his three predecessors being so terrible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7

    Lammy brings up Breakfast clubs lol

    Ticks it off on the bingo card.

    Iran
    Made the big calls right
    Respected on the international stage
    Coalition of the willing
    Further and Faster
    Patriotic Renewal
    Never crossed my desk
    Furious that nobody told me
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
    And that's before we talk about his inexplicably catastrophic decision to leave VE Day 80th anniversary commemorations early...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    He's been a disappointment, but the immediacy and severity of the dislike without any honeymoon has been a shock.
    One of the weirdnesses of the 2024GE was that in vote share terms Labour did really badly. They only increased their vote share by 1.6pp when the government party was shedding 19.9pp. Meanwhile you had this massive surge of votes for Reform, taking them to 14.3% and third in vote share, and they only returned 5 MPs.

    I think this was behind a lot of the anger and hostility towards Starmer after the election. FPTP presenting Labour with nearly two-thirds of the seats on barely one-third of the vote was simply enraging.
    There were far more votes to the right of Labour (Lib Dem, Con, Reform) than to the left (Green, SNP, PC, Lefty Indies) at 2024GE.
    So which way should he tack to attract more votes?
    I think his failure to attract more votes was mainly due to not having any sense of purpose. He could have developed a slightly more right-wing sense of purpose, or one to the left, or even a purposeful programme with the same positioning he was aiming for.

    He simply needed to be someone else who was better at politics, in terms of policy detail, political vision, and communication ability.
    And appointments... Mandelson, Reeves, replacing Lammy with Cooper
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
    And yet Essex is prosperous, but Reform are sweeping it. And Northumberland, where the Tories held up well against Reform last year, isn't.
    Is Essex prosperous after its residents have paid for housing and transport? Most of Northumberland is prosperous. Think Hexham, Alnwick and Berwick, rather than Blyth and Ashington.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 7
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
    And yet Essex is prosperous, but Reform are sweeping it. And Northumberland, where the Tories held up well against Reform last year, isn't.
    No it isn't for its location. Essex has the lowest average house price and income of the home counties and has a below average percentage of graduates. Essex people are hard working and aspirational but not expecially wealthy beyond say Chigwell and Buckhurst Hill, Theydon Bois and Brentwood and some of the wealthier rural parts in the north of the county.

    Northumberland is more expensive than the North East average
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    They start at a level and a few leaders might attract a personal vote. But as it's always been the punters vote for a Party not a leader.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,570
    Dopermean said:

    Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung.
    In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.

    There have been a few astute comments this evening, and I thought @isam ‘s comment of Reform being “Dubai MAGA” captured something real. It doesn’t surprise me that parts of Essex would go monopoly Reform because Essex is the most Dubai county in Britain as well as the most culturally American. It’s a sort of mashup of New Jersey, Texas and Dubai, with rainfall totals not far off those of the latter (and the country’s best still wines). Dubai MAGA could catch on as a term.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting movement on Polymarket

    The party to finish second in terms of seats in the local elections

    Since 10pm Lib dems have moved from 30% up to currently 47%

    The GE might end up with a REF government and and a official Lib-Dem Opposition?
    I just cannot see the LDs breaking through in enough areas, it would take an insane split of Labour/Tory/LD to see them top.
    I mean they're only 50 away from the Tories after Election 24.

    Granted it is easier to see them going past the Tories in seat numbers compared to beating Labour in seat numbers, but these are odd times.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 8,015
    Lib Dems also favourites on Betfair for "2nd Most Seats".
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
    Sure. True. But Sunak also seemed honest, intelligent, patriotic and well-meaning. And not criminally greedy (even if that’s just because he’s so stupidly rich)

    He’d have been a decent PM in better times. Nowhere near great but basically sound

    Starmer comes across as a weird squeaky voiced robotic traitor. I suspect he’d have been hated even in good times
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    Glad to be put straight that Northumberland is richer than Essex.
    Thanks for the southsplaining.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7
    Leon said:

    If the results go roughly as expected the best line for the Tories would be to say that if these elections had taken place six months ago they would have been better for Reform and worse for themselves. Try to spin a bit of momentum change is probably the best they can make of it.

    Why is Starmer so disliked personally? Is he? Well assuming he is I would certainly concur with LP about the undeserving landslide. More trivially, I think people can find a dull but honest leader more appealing than a charismatic but devious one. But dull and devious with it? That's worse.

    No, he’s dull, devious, venal, hypocritical and treacherous

    Hence the overwhelming hatred. Even from my thoroughly Labour friends. They utterly despise him

    This is actually good news for Labour as @CorrectHorseBattery often points out. Starmer is so disliked the mere act of dumping him will give them several points in the polls and an emotional boost. And then maybe they can sustain that 🤷🏼‍♂️
    The big problem Labour has is major headwinds of still a) lack of talent, b) there is no money, c) there is no growth and none will be magiced up in next 2 years, d) inflation is back and e) Trump causing mayhem across the globe.

    Also it takes time to really think through big policy changes and even longer for those to take effect. It is why the first 2 years of your 5 are so important. And Labour have done none of the hard yards.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    It'll be interesting to see where the Tory vote does hold up over Reform.

    We saw that last year in places like Cornwall where Reform got 28 to the Tory 7, whereas in Wiltshire, a similar county, the Tories got 37 to Reform's 10, and in Buckinghamshire the Tories got 48 to Reform only 3!

    Buckinghamshire is more prosperous than Wiltshire. Wiltshire is more prosperous than Cornwall.
    And yet Essex is prosperous, but Reform are sweeping it. And Northumberland, where the Tories held up well against Reform last year, isn't.
    Is Essex prosperous after its residents have paid for housing and transport? Most of Northumberland is prosperous. Think Hexham, Alnwick and Berwick, rather than Blyth and Ashington.
    There are houses worth 500k in Blyth these days and Ashington and Newbiggin are themselves slowly gentrifying.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    edited May 7
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    They start at a level and a few leaders might attract a personal vote. But as it's always been the punters vote for a Party not a leader.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. Look at Thatcher (83/87) Blair (97/01) Cameron (10/15) and Johnson (19)

    All were leaders that undoubtedly boosted their parties performance at those elections.

    Every election is differant.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499
    GIN1138 said:

    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    I think the leader thing can make sense in a lot of situations, but not in total isolation, so if the other context is horrible (rather than not great) that's pretty important. As is that it probably wouldn't have an immediate effect but perhaps be a sign of potentiality.
    Rishi Sunak was a long way from being a poor Tory leader by comparison with some of the others. As was William Hague. It didn't really help them.
    Bit of revisionist talk here.

    This was a man who couldn't organise to have an umbrella at an outdoor press conference in the pouring rain.

    He was a poor prime minister with no strategy, and little obvious ability.
    And that's before we talk about his inexplicably catastrophic decision to leave VE Day 80th anniversary commemorations early...
    He did on the other hand do a reasonable job of cleaning up his predecessor's mess and did a better job of negotiating with the EU than either May or Johnson did. He was definitely a better PM than Truss and Johnson, and was probably better than May as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 7

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    The Tories would be doing even worse if they didn’t have Kemi. Can you imagine their level of unpopularity if Jenrick had won the leadership and had stayed in the party?
    Had Jenrick won the leadership Reform may not have overtaken the Tories in 2025, though Kemi has more appeal than Jenrick in London and the home counties
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    Tthe Tory Party spokespeople kept saying how popular Kemi is which seems to mean little other than no one notices her enough to dislike her

    Sir John Curtis doesn't seem to agree with the PB Golden rule that leadership popularity is everything. As he showed with Zak when he asked what does it matter if his popularity dropped 14 points in a week when the Greens score hasn't shifted?

    Same with Kemi when the Tory kept saying she was the most popular of the leaders. "So what" he said? The Tories are still the least popular they've ever been!

    More John Curtis please less homespun nonsense from Big G!
    The issue is, the Tories aren't at that level of unpopularity because of Kemi. She is the least of their problems.

    The only thing that can probably revive the Tories, at this point, is a REF/Farage government and inevitable failure.
    The Tories would be doing even worse if they didn’t have Kemi. Can you imagine their level of unpopularity if Jenrick had won the leadership and had stayed in the party?
    Mikel Arteta has Arsenal 2/7f for the PL and in the CL Final yet, eighteen months into the job he had us with our two worst league finishes in decades (8th twice). People could have legitimately said he was doing a worse job than Unai Emery, and the late Wenger years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052520018621919594

    Party activist in Blackburn texts in:

    "I'm welling up at my count. Reform after Reform after Reform."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7
    Party activist in Blackburn texts in:

    "I'm welling up at my count. Reform after Reform after Reform."

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052520018621919594?s=20

    Britain Elects bloke is Labour activist if I remember correctly. Is he a councillor as well?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Leon said:

    If the results go roughly as expected the best line for the Tories would be to say that if these elections had taken place six months ago they would have been better for Reform and worse for themselves. Try to spin a bit of momentum change is probably the best they can make of it.

    Why is Starmer so disliked personally? Is he? Well assuming he is I would certainly concur with LP about the undeserving landslide. More trivially, I think people can find a dull but honest leader more appealing than a charismatic but devious one. But dull and devious with it? That's worse.

    No, he’s dull, devious, venal, hypocritical and treacherous

    Hence the overwhelming hatred. Even from my thoroughly Labour friends. They utterly despise him

    This is actually good news for Labour as @CorrectHorseBattery often points out. Starmer is so disliked the mere act of dumping him will give them several points in the polls and an emotional boost. And then maybe they can sustain that 🤷🏼‍♂️
    The big problem Labour has is major headwinds of still a) lack of talent, b) there is no money, c) there is no growth and none will be magiced up in next 2 years, d) inflation is back and e) Trump causing mayhem across the globe.

    Also it takes time to really think through big policy changes and even longer for those to take effect. It is why the first 2 years of your 5 are so important. And Labour have done none of the hard yards.
    Indeed. They have to play a bad hand. But Starmer is making a bad hand worse

    To be brutally honest I’m not sure any leader can save them. However I am CERTAIN Skyr can’t do it. So they may as well roll the dice
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    Leon said:

    If the results go roughly as expected the best line for the Tories would be to say that if these elections had taken place six months ago they would have been better for Reform and worse for themselves. Try to spin a bit of momentum change is probably the best they can make of it.

    Why is Starmer so disliked personally? Is he? Well assuming he is I would certainly concur with LP about the undeserving landslide. More trivially, I think people can find a dull but honest leader more appealing than a charismatic but devious one. But dull and devious with it? That's worse.

    No, he’s dull, devious, venal, hypocritical and treacherous

    Hence the overwhelming hatred. Even from my thoroughly Labour friends. They utterly despise him

    This is actually good news for Labour as @CorrectHorseBattery often points out. Starmer is so disliked the mere act of dumping him will give them several points in the polls and an emotional boost. And then maybe they can sustain that 🤷🏼‍♂️
    The big problem Labour has is major headwinds of still a) lack of talent, b) there is no money, c) there is no growth and none will be magiced up in next 2 years, d) inflation is back and e) Trump causing mayhem across the globe.

    Also it takes time to really think through big policy changes and even longer for those to take effect. It is why the first 2 years of your 5 are so important. And Labour have done none of the hard yards.
    There's no growth and money, and I don't think most parties care about either because policies that might lead to getting them are likely not popular.

    I for one am therefore super optimistic about the future.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    MelonB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung.
    In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.

    There have been a few astute comments this evening, and I thought @isam ‘s comment of Reform being “Dubai MAGA” captured something real. It doesn’t surprise me that parts of Essex would go monopoly Reform because Essex is the most Dubai county in Britain as well as the most culturally American. It’s a sort of mashup of New Jersey, Texas and Dubai, with rainfall totals not far off those of the latter (and the country’s best still wines). Dubai MAGA could catch on as a term.
    Know Essex well do you?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438
    MelonB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung.
    In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.

    There have been a few astute comments this evening, and I thought @isam ‘s comment of Reform being “Dubai MAGA” captured something real. It doesn’t surprise me that parts of Essex would go monopoly Reform because Essex is the most Dubai county in Britain as well as the most culturally American. It’s a sort of mashup of New Jersey, Texas and Dubai, with rainfall totals not far off those of the latter (and the country’s best still wines). Dubai MAGA could catch on as a term.
    Make Essex-Dubai Great Again

    MEDGA
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Eyes down. Here we go!
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    GET IN
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Fun, in that if it were just Con to Reform switching (obviously it is more complicated) it would not have been enough for Reform.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196
    Dopermean said:

    MelonB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung.
    In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.

    There have been a few astute comments this evening, and I thought @isam ‘s comment of Reform being “Dubai MAGA” captured something real. It doesn’t surprise me that parts of Essex would go monopoly Reform because Essex is the most Dubai county in Britain as well as the most culturally American. It’s a sort of mashup of New Jersey, Texas and Dubai, with rainfall totals not far off those of the latter (and the country’s best still wines). Dubai MAGA could catch on as a term.
    Know Essex well do you?
    Everyone knows that Essex is the absolute pits
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    Nadhim Zahawi on Sky News talking as if he never been near a Tory Party do....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 7
    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Fun, in that if it were just Con to Reform switching (obviously it is more complicated) it would not have been enough for Reform.
    Yes, LD and Labour vote down too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    Michael Trasher the only reason to watch Sky News these days.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Kemi Badenoch is the least unpopular Party leader.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Reform off and running, also a gain in Chorley from Lab. Theyll be out of sight of the pack soon enough
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    Theyre laughing at Chris Philp bigging up Kemi. Theyre a joke!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    edited May 7
    I'm not watching any coverage tonight as I cancelled my TV licence, which means I can't watch any live news (and as you all know, I'm a law abiding citizen so even if I could have a sneaky watch of SKY on YouTube, as, who would know? I won't...)

    So I'm relying on PB to keep me updated :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7
    GIN1138 said:

    I'm not watching any coverage tonight as I cancelled my TV licence, which means I can't watch any live news (and as you all know, I'm a law abiding citizen so even if I could have a sneaky watch of SKY on YouTube, as, who would know? I won't...)

    So I'm relying on PB to keep me updated :D

    Are the likes of Novara Media not doing a live stream?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Kemi Badenoch is the least unpopular Party leader.
    We'll be hearing that a lot until she is forced out for not being Reform-curious enough.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 658
    I do wish the BBC would update the number of councillors elected as soon as they know about them, rather than waiting to do it only when they have all the results in for a particular council.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 7
    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm not watching any coverage tonight as I cancelled my TV licence, which means I can't watch any live news (and as you all know, I'm a law abiding citizen so even if I could have a sneaky watch of SKY on YouTube, as, who would know? I won't...)

    So I'm relying on PB to keep me updated :D

    Are the likes of Novara Media not doing a live stream?
    No idea, but I'm happy enough chilling to some easy listening and reading PB.

    I will have to re-instate my licence for the GE though...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    From small acorns...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052525552985080067

    Hutton South (Brentwood) council election result:

    REF: 40.7% (+40.7)
    CON: 32.4% (-30.4)
    LDEM: 12.5% (-9.5)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    LAB: 6.8% (-8.5)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.

    Kemi Badenoch is the least unpopular Party leader.
    Kemi is far more popular with Reform voters than Starmer, Polanski and Davey certainly. However that does not help Tory candidates much as Reform voters still prefer Big Nige to Kemi.

    Labour, LD and Green voters though it seems are still not willing to tactically vote for a Kemi led Tories yet in big enough numbers for Tory incumbents to hold off Reform
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Reform to sweep Tameside. Labour heartland

    BBC
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 8,015

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    But presumably that will not be included in BBC totals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605


    Little Hadham and The Pelhams

    God I love ward names.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    MikeL said:

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    But presumably that will not be included in BBC totals.
    I guess not. There are 22 by elections i think alongside the regular elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Hertfordshire looking a bit better for the Tories than its Essex neighbour
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Don't forget that the real heartache for Labour will be tomorrow when they lose Wales.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7
    Breakfast clubs getting metnioned again from Labour talking head on Sky News.....

    Do they know how ridicilious they sound.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,930
    Leon said:

    Reform to sweep Tameside. Labour heartland

    BBC

    An area in which every single ward consistently voted for Andy Burnham.
    Just saying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    GIN1138 said:

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    From small acorns...
    Comes a mature tree in 25 years?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    HYUFD said:

    Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today
    Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:

    CON: 36.5% (-14.8)
    REF: 28.0% (+28.0)
    GRN: 13.4% (-1.7)
    LAB: 12.2% (+3.1)
    LDEM: 9.9% (-14.6)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Hertfordshire looking a bit better for the Tories than its Essex neighbour
    Broxbourne should be in imminently
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Reform to take Havering. BBC
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    kle4 said:

    Don't forget that the real heartache for Labour will be tomorrow when they lose Wales.

    Oh dear... How sad!
This discussion has been closed.