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Scotland says Yes, No, or maybe – politicalbetting.com

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  • Turnout at 5pm is up here in Lancashire by 3-5%. I'm hoping it's people coming out who last year were taken aback by Reform's success.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635

    Turnout at 5pm is up here in Lancashire by 3-5%. I'm hoping it's people coming out who last year were taken aback by Reform's success.

    Or it could be those emboldened by it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    No 55%
    Yes 45%

    :innocent:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    What if Labour dont do quite as badly as predicted?

    Don't worry, PB's anti Starmer fans will find something to criticise him for.
    Mandelson? :innocent:
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Demolition Day for Starmer: our prediction over on Emergency Podcast: https://youtu.be/9fqnmVjdSR4
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,378
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Do we think anyone from Labour is really going to go for Starmer tomorrow or within the next week or two, or are they all going to wait for each other for so long that the moment passes & Starmer survives (as has happened up until now)?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2052422782491808252
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,896
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,378
    On dodgy barbers and vape shops:

    "Where [Trading Standards] capacity exists, results can be dramatic. Operation Vulcan, a joint effort involving Greater Manchester Police, Trading Standards, Immigration Enforcement, HMRC and even the Intellectual Property Office, targeted Cheetham Hill, the “counterfeit capital of Europe”. They closed 206 criminal establishments, seized 1048 tonnes of counterfeit goods with a value of £1.56bn, and as a result saw a dramatic reduction in other crimes — public order offences down 45 per cent, vehicle and violent crime both down 69 per cent, burglary down 58 per cent and theft cut in half. For crime clusters, and targeting visible, rampant criminality makes us all safer."


    https://thecritic.co.uk/the-underworld-on-the-high-street/

    (My bolding)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Yes 45%
    No 55%
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,378
    More on rat virus:


    Paul Nuki 🦋
    @PaulNuki
    Important and welcome news re the hantavirus: it does NOT seem to be evolving fast genetically

    From
    @benfarmerDT
    in Cape Town for
    @TelGlobalHealth
    :

    The virus behind the deadly cruise ship hantavirus outbreak is nearly identical to a well known South American strain, easing fears of a new more virulent mutant version, a leading expert has said.

    https://x.com/PaulNuki/status/2052393544225075395
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,209
    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    I don't think you can have a meaningful negotiation on how to implement independence when you don't know whether there's a mandate for independence in the first place.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,556

    On dodgy barbers and vape shops:

    "Where [Trading Standards] capacity exists, results can be dramatic. Operation Vulcan, a joint effort involving Greater Manchester Police, Trading Standards, Immigration Enforcement, HMRC and even the Intellectual Property Office, targeted Cheetham Hill, the “counterfeit capital of Europe”. They closed 206 criminal establishments, seized 1048 tonnes of counterfeit goods with a value of £1.56bn, and as a result saw a dramatic reduction in other crimes — public order offences down 45 per cent, vehicle and violent crime both down 69 per cent, burglary down 58 per cent and theft cut in half. For crime clusters, and targeting visible, rampant criminality makes us all safer."


    https://thecritic.co.uk/the-underworld-on-the-high-street/

    (My bolding)

    They sprang immediately back up again in other guises. There is a street in Cheetham Hill with a good 30-odd vape shops on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    On dodgy barbers and vape shops:

    "Where [Trading Standards] capacity exists, results can be dramatic. Operation Vulcan, a joint effort involving Greater Manchester Police, Trading Standards, Immigration Enforcement, HMRC and even the Intellectual Property Office, targeted Cheetham Hill, the “counterfeit capital of Europe”. They closed 206 criminal establishments, seized 1048 tonnes of counterfeit goods with a value of £1.56bn, and as a result saw a dramatic reduction in other crimes — public order offences down 45 per cent, vehicle and violent crime both down 69 per cent, burglary down 58 per cent and theft cut in half. For crime clusters, and targeting visible, rampant criminality makes us all safer."


    https://thecritic.co.uk/the-underworld-on-the-high-street/

    (My bolding)

    Its the fact that in Birmingham this has been openly franchised. Its ridicilous all the plod need to do is just keep raiding these places and make their lives an absoliute pain. Instead it seems in all the towns up and down the land everybody knows them, they get raided once in a blue moon and for the criminals it is just seen as cost.of doing business.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,194
    nico67 said:

    Zack Polanski faces questions over houseboat and council tax

    The Green Party leader admitted he was not a spokesman for the British Red Cross after a Times investigation. Now attention is turning to his living arrangements


    Zack Polanski faces fresh questions over his council tax arrangements as the Green Party looks set to make sweeping gains in local elections across Britain on Thursday.

    The left-wing leader, 43, maintains that he only occasionally stayed on a narrowboat in east London, despite his partner referring to it as their “amazing home” over the past three years.

    Government guidance appears to suggest that boat owners could be liable to pay council tax if it is their sole or main residence.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/zack-polanski-council-tax-news-l5jng8b73

    As much as I think Polanski isn’t great the attention on his affairs by the media compared to what Farage has been up to is quite something .
    Is it? I distinctly recall endless stories about his girlfriends house, his Nazi apeing youth and now this 5million donation. Were you not paying attention?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,378
    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Just voted and must say there was a decent queue waiting to get inside. No mention of the secret ballot in the instructions given.

    Looking at the ballot paper I was slightly amused to see I had the opportunity to vote for Mark Reckless as I know that would have caused a few convulsions on pb.

    n.b As he's only number two on the list there's no guarantee of him getting in
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635

    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    I don't think you can have a meaningful negotiation on how to implement independence when you don't know whether there's a mandate for independence in the first place.
    There cannot be a meaningful mandate for independence without understanding what shape that would take.
    The implications and consequences of breaking up the country are many and far reaching. This much is obvious.

    Alternatively we could propose a plebiscite on the general will towards independence and then once a framework/agreement between the two sides has been reached put that back to the people. On a super-majority basis (at least).
    That sounds fun doesn’t it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    nico67 said:

    Zack Polanski faces questions over houseboat and council tax

    The Green Party leader admitted he was not a spokesman for the British Red Cross after a Times investigation. Now attention is turning to his living arrangements


    Zack Polanski faces fresh questions over his council tax arrangements as the Green Party looks set to make sweeping gains in local elections across Britain on Thursday.

    The left-wing leader, 43, maintains that he only occasionally stayed on a narrowboat in east London, despite his partner referring to it as their “amazing home” over the past three years.

    Government guidance appears to suggest that boat owners could be liable to pay council tax if it is their sole or main residence.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/zack-polanski-council-tax-news-l5jng8b73

    As much as I think Polanski isn’t great the attention on his affairs by the media compared to what Farage has been up to is quite something .
    Is it? I distinctly recall endless stories about his girlfriends house, his Nazi apeing youth and now this 5million donation. Were you not paying attention?
    The Times also been very keen to look into Richard Tice approach to tax efficiency. I think we will continue to get plenty more media interest in Reform if they continue to lead the polls.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,356
    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    Yes Cameron was particularly stupid in not allowing anybody to do any planning for a Yes vote.

    I think an alternative is two referenda, one to start negotiations and the second on a final deal.

    Of course any such deal would contain something to upset everybody so it would probably be rejected. Then you'd probably have to have a third referendum to decide whether to leave with no deal or to remain.

    The whole process would probably take a decade. But at least the outcome would have democratic legitimacy.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    edited May 7

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Do we think anyone from Labour is really going to go for Starmer tomorrow or within the next week or two, or are they all going to wait for each other for so long that the moment passes & Starmer survives (as has happened up until now)?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2052422782491808252

    It feels very finely balanced to me and much will depend on how organised the plotters are (something none of us can confirm - albeit there sure has been a lot of briefing).

    I’d have it about 60/40 that he survives. If he’s going it’ll need people to move against him quickly, otherwise he gets the chance to set the narrative (reshuffle? Cabinet ring round?) and the moment will be lost. I also think Burnham not being around complicates things and might cause some to sit on their hands for now. A lot of this comes down to Streeting and Rayner.

    Why I think it’s more likely than not he stays: we’ve all seen the Labour Party march themselves up to the top of the hill over leadership woes many times in the past, only for them to collectively lose their bottle at the last minute.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,445

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    I'd agree but Scottish affairs are none of my business. Since the Scots have been voting the Scottish Nationalist Party into government for what seems like my entire adult life, that seems to me to be a fair indication of a 'settled will'. By all accounts they haven't been such a wonderful government at dealing with Scottish affairs so who am I to suppose that it isn't their main policy that keeps their electors voting for them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,863

    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
    It's ironic that some of the things that are now characterised as British Trump wannabe act were actually implemented by Tony Blair. Remember when Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre was burned down by the inmates?
  • eekeek Posts: 33,921

    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
    It's ironic that some of the things that are now characterised as British Trump wannabe act were actually implemented by Tony Blair. Remember when Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre was burned down by the inmates?
    We still have illegal immigration centres so I don't see why Farage is bigging them up as a new idea (well I do but it's not accurate)..
  • eekeek Posts: 33,921
    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    Yes Cameron was particularly stupid in not allowing anybody to do any planning for a Yes vote.

    I think an alternative is two referenda, one to start negotiations and the second on a final deal.

    Of course any such deal would contain something to upset everybody so it would probably be rejected. Then you'd probably have to have a third referendum to decide whether to leave with no deal or to remain.

    The whole process would probably take a decade. But at least the outcome would have democratic legitimacy.
    Meanwhile are the other 26 countries supposed to stand still while we arse around.

    Cameron's problem and the reason he lost was that Yes became everyone else's desired unicorn outcome no matter how impossible that scenario was in the real world.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429

    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    I don't think you can have a meaningful negotiation on how to implement independence when you don't know whether there's a mandate for independence in the first place.
    If you are right then a mandate is sought by a first referendum to enter negotiations and agree terms prior to a second, confirmatory, referendum.

    Personally i think an SNP majority could be construed as a mandate, once enough time has passed after (IIRC) 2014.

  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    I'd agree but Scottish affairs are none of my business. Since the Scots have been voting the Scottish Nationalist Party into government for what seems like my entire adult life, that seems to me to be a fair indication of a 'settled will'. By all accounts they haven't been such a wonderful government at dealing with Scottish affairs so who am I to suppose that it isn't their main policy that keeps their electors voting for them.
    It is no such thing as the settled will. The SNP have courted the left wing vote specifically stating that a vote for them is not a vote for independence (then volt face after the fact)
    And the union side is fractured versus a single separatist side.
    And there has been no meaningful change in the yes/no split since the referendum.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    Virtually rerunning the indyref has been fun
    Shall we do AV/PR too?!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
    It's ironic that some of the things that are now characterised as British Trump wannabe act were actually implemented by Tony Blair. Remember when Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre was burned down by the inmates?
    Blair was a Dubya Tribute Act.
  • AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    I'd agree but Scottish affairs are none of my business. Since the Scots have been voting the Scottish Nationalist Party into government for what seems like my entire adult life, that seems to me to be a fair indication of a 'settled will'. By all accounts they haven't been such a wonderful government at dealing with Scottish affairs so who am I to suppose that it isn't their main policy that keeps their electors voting for them.
    Polls consistently put support for independence around 45-50%, which is some way from being 'settled will'. If support was over 60% for a couple of years and the SNP got a majority at the same time, then the case for a referendum would be irrefutable. But in the current situation, with voters also rating independence as low on their list of priorities, there's no real pressure for indyref2.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,863
    https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/2052385045067743353

    "Every great man has been to prison - Nelson Mandela went to prison."

    "You'd compare yourself to Nelson Mandela?"

    @lewis_goodall clashes with Independent campaigner Akhmed Yakoob, accused of money laundering, after Yakoob says he has 'puppet masters in the Zionist regime'.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    Few? Including me give a monkeys what the Scots say think or vote.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,519
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    EU leaders frustrated by the failed US-led Ukraine negotiations are preparing for potential talks with Putin, the FT reports.

    European Council president António Costa said the bloc has Kyiv’s backing to be “prepared to contribute positively for negotiation.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/2052385045067743353

    "Every great man has been to prison - Nelson Mandela went to prison."

    "You'd compare yourself to Nelson Mandela?"

    @lewis_goodall clashes with Independent campaigner Akhmed Yakoob, accused of money laundering, after Yakoob says he has 'puppet masters in the Zionist regime'.

    Is he the TikTok lawyer who rocked up to defend the two lads who beat up the plod at Manchester Airport?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,863

    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
    It's ironic that some of the things that are now characterised as British Trump wannabe act were actually implemented by Tony Blair. Remember when Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre was burned down by the inmates?
    Blair was a Dubya Tribute Act.
    Dubya was in favour of an amnesty. It was Clinton's Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act that was the antecedent of Trump's ICE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    EU leaders frustrated by the failed US-led Ukraine negotiations are preparing for potential talks with Putin, the FT reports.

    European Council president António Costa said the bloc has Kyiv’s backing to be “prepared to contribute positively for negotiation.”

    We dont hear much about Starmers coalition of the willing these days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777
    Sweeney74 said:

    Virtually rerunning the indyref has been fun
    Shall we do AV/PR too?!

    Yes 32%
    No 68%
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,209
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    I'd agree but Scottish affairs are none of my business. Since the Scots have been voting the Scottish Nationalist Party into government for what seems like my entire adult life, that seems to me to be a fair indication of a 'settled will'. By all accounts they haven't been such a wonderful government at dealing with Scottish affairs so who am I to suppose that it isn't their main policy that keeps their electors voting for them.
    The constituency share of the vote for the SNP in Holyrood elections, and the IndyRef share for Yes, has been:

    1999 28.7%
    2003 23.8%
    2007 32.9%
    2011 45.4%
    2014 IndyRef 44.7%
    2016 46.5%
    2021 47.7%
    2026 ???

    There's definitely a large settled minority in favour of independence, but no sign of majority support.

    The opinion polls for today's election suggests that the constituency vote for the SNP might drop below 40% - the SNP will hold onto so many constituency seats only because the rest of the vote is split in so many directions.

    I think you'd need stronger evidence of support for independence before holding another referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,863

    https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/2052385045067743353

    "Every great man has been to prison - Nelson Mandela went to prison."

    "You'd compare yourself to Nelson Mandela?"

    @lewis_goodall clashes with Independent campaigner Akhmed Yakoob, accused of money laundering, after Yakoob says he has 'puppet masters in the Zionist regime'.

    Is he the TikTok lawyer who rocked up to defend the two lads who beat up the plod at Manchester Airport?
    That's the one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/2052385045067743353

    "Every great man has been to prison - Nelson Mandela went to prison."

    "You'd compare yourself to Nelson Mandela?"

    @lewis_goodall clashes with Independent campaigner Akhmed Yakoob, accused of money laundering, after Yakoob says he has 'puppet masters in the Zionist regime'.

    Is he the TikTok lawyer who rocked up to defend the two lads who beat up the plod at Manchester Airport?
    That's the one.
    He was even too "interesting" for them and they ditched him pretty quickly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    nico67 said:

    The media have their narrative and will run with it regardless of the results. And of course we’ll get the Man of the People aka the grifting , lying loathsome cxnt Farage popping up telling us the people want change and want him to continue his lying and grifting from No 10 !

    Plus his British Trump wannaba act of ICE and internment camps and so on.
    It's ironic that some of the things that are now characterised as British Trump wannabe act were actually implemented by Tony Blair. Remember when Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre was burned down by the inmates?
    Blair was a Dubya Tribute Act.
    Dubya was in favour of an amnesty. It was Clinton's Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act that was the antecedent of Trump's ICE.
    I was thinking more of Iraq...
  • glwglw Posts: 10,923
    edited May 7
    Scott_xP said:

    @johnphudson.bsky.social‬

    SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse

    https://bsky.app/profile/johnphudson.bsky.social/post/3mlbjn7n76a22

    If the stuff about the missiles is correct then we are surely at the point where rational people will be saying that Iran has won.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Just voted and must say there was a decent queue waiting to get inside. No mention of the secret ballot in the instructions given.

    Looking at the ballot paper I was slightly amused to see I had the opportunity to vote for Mark Reckless as I know that would have caused a few convulsions on pb.

    n.b As he's only number two on the list there's no guarantee of him getting in

    By contrast, in Primrose Hill I’d say voting is “torpid”
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    I have voted! Tory of course. Maybe we can win back Barnet.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/2052385045067743353

    "Every great man has been to prison - Nelson Mandela went to prison."

    "You'd compare yourself to Nelson Mandela?"

    @lewis_goodall clashes with Independent campaigner Akhmed Yakoob, accused of money laundering, after Yakoob says he has 'puppet masters in the Zionist regime'.

    Is he the TikTok lawyer who rocked up to defend the two lads who beat up the plod at Manchester Airport?
    I can't remember now but was the original footage that got released (which suggested the police initiated the attack) from a mobile phone?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,470

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,136

    Voted in local elections. Despite not supporting any party currently, it was a surprisingly easy decision to make.

    Labour, Tories and Greens are standing but have simply not bothered campaigning at all.

    The encumbent Lib Dem Councillor has been campaigning regularly and sent much fluff through our door addressing local issues, and we had a good conversation a couple of weeks ago when he came to our door. We discussed issues like the need for a High School in our area and roads that need work.

    The only other party standing is Reform, but I am not a racist shithead. They sent one flyer which I did not bother reading to be fair, but the side I saw while picking it up to recycle it had a half-page picture of Nigel Farage next to a few pledges like Stop the Boats.

    I did not see what boats it is they think are coming to a landlocked Council in the North West of England, nor how Councillors are meant to stop them.

    Are people travelling down the river? Or up the Ship Canal?

    So +1 vote for the yellow peril. +2 if you include Mrs Roberts.

    Hold the front page.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,209
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    Sure, but didn't the Baltic States all have to work that out in a hurry in 1991, and I don't think any of them ever regretted it?

    The idea that Scottish independence is impossible merely because it would be economically difficult is risible.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,253
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    How could it be done then since it clearly can (or I presume it can if you have done it a few times)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777
    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    For starters, the death rate is at least an order of magnitude higher...
    "Oh, god! Oh, god! We're all going to die?"
    Definitely. The only question is when. And of what.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    That's........unusual is it not. Whereabouts can I ask?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,016
    edited May 7
    No tanks available for the Russian May 9 Victory parade:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy2gj2jlr8o

    The war special military operation situation has developed, not necessarily to Russia's advantage
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,777

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    That's........unusual is it not. Whereabouts can I ask?
    Ilford North, under Redbridge Council.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,583

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    My polling station had just one lady sitting at a table dishing out the ballot papers.
    Wondered if they had a lone working policy?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,775
    Sweeney74 said:

    Virtually rerunning the indyref has been fun
    Shall we do AV/PR too?!

    You're saying that like it's a bad thing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,583

    Turnout at 5pm is up here in Lancashire by 3-5%. I'm hoping it's people coming out who last year were taken aback by Reform's success.

    Is that 3-5% up on the final total. Or up on the turnout at 5pm?
  • berberian_knowsberberian_knows Posts: 199

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.


    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    If Burnham's ego is big enough, he should try a Macron-style reverse takeover and leave the Labour party, stand as an independent, and then invite Labour MPs to defect to him.
    He could ask Chuka Umunna to join
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    No tanks available for the Russian May 9 Victory parade:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy2gj2jlr8o

    The war special military operation situation has developed, not necessarily to Russia's advantage

    Putin is apparently channelling his inner JD Vance about the Ukrainians’ ingratitude. They have not been giving Russia any tanks.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,519
    ydoethur said:

    No tanks available for the Russian May 9 Victory parade:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy2gj2jlr8o

    The war special military operation situation has developed, not necessarily to Russia's advantage

    Putin is apparently channelling his inner JD Vance about the Ukrainians’ ingratitude. They have not been giving Russia any tanks.
    They offered to send some drones
  • berberian_knowsberberian_knows Posts: 199

    On dodgy barbers and vape shops:

    "Where [Trading Standards] capacity exists, results can be dramatic. Operation Vulcan, a joint effort involving Greater Manchester Police, Trading Standards, Immigration Enforcement, HMRC and even the Intellectual Property Office, targeted Cheetham Hill, the “counterfeit capital of Europe”. They closed 206 criminal establishments, seized 1048 tonnes of counterfeit goods with a value of £1.56bn, and as a result saw a dramatic reduction in other crimes — public order offences down 45 per cent, vehicle and violent crime both down 69 per cent, burglary down 58 per cent and theft cut in half. For crime clusters, and targeting visible, rampant criminality makes us all safer."


    https://thecritic.co.uk/the-underworld-on-the-high-street/

    (My bolding)

    I was in Exmouth at the weekend and at least two (now closed) shops ("International mini marts") had council posters in the window saying they had been closed for illegal trading.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,775

    nico67 said:

    Zack Polanski faces questions over houseboat and council tax

    The Green Party leader admitted he was not a spokesman for the British Red Cross after a Times investigation. Now attention is turning to his living arrangements


    Zack Polanski faces fresh questions over his council tax arrangements as the Green Party looks set to make sweeping gains in local elections across Britain on Thursday.

    The left-wing leader, 43, maintains that he only occasionally stayed on a narrowboat in east London, despite his partner referring to it as their “amazing home” over the past three years.

    Government guidance appears to suggest that boat owners could be liable to pay council tax if it is their sole or main residence.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/zack-polanski-council-tax-news-l5jng8b73

    As much as I think Polanski isn’t great the attention on his affairs by the media compared to what Farage has been up to is quite something .
    Is it? I distinctly recall endless stories about his girlfriends house, his Nazi apeing youth and now this 5million donation. Were you not paying attention?
    I know what you mean, but I had a brief vision of a gorilla.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,953
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,896
    Just voted, according to the wifey on the desk turnout no bad, lots of young ones.
    I guess on the ‘baristas have turned against Zack’ metric that means lots of new Reform voters,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,490
    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,369

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    Taking a quick break from campaigning. Big issue in the ward is that someone in a Hi-Viz jacket turned up and told the Lib Dem teller that she could not take numbers as it was personal information. She left in tears and we have upped this to the Acting Returning Officer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,209
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?

    RTÉ are expecting a disappointing result for Labour in Wales.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?

    I’ve been in Edinburgh today and on a Scottish subsample of the people in my meeting there was close to 100% turnout here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    ydoethur said:

    No tanks available for the Russian May 9 Victory parade:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy2gj2jlr8o

    The war special military operation situation has developed, not necessarily to Russia's advantage

    Putin is apparently channelling his inner JD Vance about the Ukrainians’ ingratitude. They have not been giving Russia any tanks.
    Their boost to Russia’s tank repair industry simply cannot be overstated.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,286
    edited May 7
    POLLING PLACE REPORT
    1. Had no idea there were so many people who couldn't speak English particularly well in my ward - mainly eastern Europeans, but also many more black people than I realised. Interesting because I don't really bump into them in the shop, pub or post office etc. I know from friends that they are very involved in the local nursery/primary school - but I don't have kids.
    2. Council staff doing amazing work, google translate is very impressive nowadays
    3. SNP will smash my area because a large proportion of people had no idea who to vote for and were chatting to the one teller (I thought this was a queue to vote but actually just people wanting to know about the election). I listened in and he was fastidious about the rules, but nevertheless the rosette etc will have had an influence.
    4. Brisk. Very.
    5. I love stuff like this, like the walk to Bonfire Night with thousands of people, or to a carol service, or to a football stadium. Buzzing.
    6. My partner completely forgot about the list vote and froze and the enormous size of the ballot. I had to fold mine four times to get in the box.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,648

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    That's........unusual is it not. Whereabouts can I ask?
    Ilford North, under Redbridge Council.
    Bleeding Essex, innit? Fuzz probably thought there was a rave going on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?

    Well it was pretty chilly in Birkhill this morning.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,209
    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    It was intended as such.

    They didn't quite foresee this...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,583

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    Pollcheck has them projected as joint fourth.
    I remember that too. I thought I was virtually alone on here in thinking it a much fairer system.
    I wonder what result we'd have under the old system?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    Eabhal said:

    POLLING PLACE REPORT


    1. Had no idea there were so many people who couldn't speak English particularly well in my ward - mainly eastern Europeans, but also many more black people than I realised. Interesting because I don't really bump into them in the shop, pub or post office etc. I know from friends that they are very involved in the local nursery/primary school - but I don't have kids.
    2. Council staff doing amazing work, google translate is very impressive nowadays
    3. SNP will smash my area because a large proportion of people had no idea who to vote for and were chatting to the one teller (I thought this was a queue to vote but actually just people wanting to know about the election). I listened in and he was fastidious about the rules, but nevertheless the rosette etc will have had an influence.
    4. Brisk. Very.
    5. I love stuff like this, like the walk to Bonfire Night with thousands of people, or to a carol service, or to a football stadium. Buzzing.
    6. My partner completely forgot about the list vote and froze and the enormous size of the ballot. I had to fold mine four times to get in the box.
    My list vote didn’t really fit in the box either. Not sure it really needed to be anything like that size.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429
    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    It may not seem a problem to some, but IIRC at the last referendum the SNP were desperate not to talk about it more than they had to, and failed to announce a clear decision on the way ahead.

    In reality unless you are a tiny and fairly unambitious country you need your own currency. German, France etc are in a monetary union with ever closer political union so that the Eurozone acts as the nation state for monetary purposes. Good luck with Scotland agreeing that with the remaining UK and the pound. And is Scotland want the Euro, they would need to say so.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,847
    Turned up to vote this morning before heading off to work. Too early. Brainfart me thought the polls opened at 6am, not 7am, so there were some bemused polling station workers looking at me like I'd grown a second head at 6.30am.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    Wales is one of the most interesting results of the night, IMHO.

    The Labour result could range anywhere from disaster to utter annihilation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,789
    ydoethur said:

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    It was intended as such.

    They didn't quite foresee this...
    Labour could do worse than third.

    Many of us former (for the moment at least) Labour voters have voted PC. And as I have read on here today (and from several correspondents) Badenoch Tories are smashing it out of the park.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,775
    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    Tax income doesn't come in evenly, it comes in in dribs and drabs. You need to be able to issue debt to even the flow. Plus if you wanted to build a large capital project (say a dam) you need to issue debt to pay for it until the savings come in. But if you don't control your own currency you run the risk of defaulting on that debt
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,775
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?

    Dogs have been pictured outside polling stations.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    Even Blair at his gerrymandering best could not have imagined how thoroughly despised and hated the Labour Party could become.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,452
    We went to vote just after five o'clock. Steady, verging on brisk.

    15 candidates on the ballot, fighting it out for 3 seats.

    If we hold the one we are defending, that will be a very good result. If we land all three, that will be amazing.

    Meanwhile, if I don't finish bottom where I'm standing, that will be an achievement.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm hearing turnout today is brisk; has anyone else heard anything?

    Dogs have been pictured outside polling stations.
    slows at my location nr Horsham
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Foss said:

    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-06/when-will-the-election-results-in-your-area-be-announced
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    Foss said:

    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?

    Here you go.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-06/when-will-the-election-results-in-your-area-be-announced
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Foss said:

    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-06/when-will-the-election-results-in-your-area-be-announced
    nico67 said:

    Foss said:

    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?

    Here you go.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-06/when-will-the-election-results-in-your-area-be-announced
    Fab! Thank you both!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429
    Foss said:

    Is there a list of expected declaration times somewhere?

    https://x.com/ekajcw/status/2052111317872296162?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I don't know how accurate this might be but here is a list
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    You don't think Scotland's large banking sector might see it as an issue that they have in effect no lender of last resort?

    Or the EU while negotiating accession terms?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,452
    dixiedean said:

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    Pollcheck has them projected as joint fourth.
    I remember that too. I thought I was virtually alone on here in thinking it a much fairer system.
    I wonder what result we'd have under the old system?
    You're not alone. I'm a big fan of d'Hondt.

    We need it for Westminster.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    dixiedean said:

    Given that we're expecting Labour to come third in the Welsh election I am petty enough to recall a PBer denouncing the new voting system in use today as being a gerrymander to ensure perpetual Labour rule in Wales.

    Lol.

    Pollcheck has them projected as joint fourth.
    I remember that too. I thought I was virtually alone on here in thinking it a much fairer system.
    I wonder what result we'd have under the old system?
    You're not alone. I'm a big fan of d'Hondt.

    We need it for Westminster.
    D’hondt think so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    algarkirk said:

    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    It may not seem a problem to some, but IIRC at the last referendum the SNP were desperate not to talk about it more than they had to, and failed to announce a clear decision on the way ahead.

    In reality unless you are a tiny and fairly unambitious country you need your own currency. German, France etc are in a monetary union with ever closer political union so that the Eurozone acts as the nation state for monetary purposes. Good luck with Scotland agreeing that with the remaining UK and the pound. And is Scotland want the Euro, they would need to say so.

    Scotland’s share of the UK deficit per capita is north of £10bn. The actual figure is more because no one north of the border has shown any interest in our economy for a long time. I am pretty sure that an independent Scotland would really struggle to borrow even a proportion of that at a sensible rate, that is less than 6%.
    The result would be that an independent Scotland would either have to increase taxes yet further or cut spending or both.
    You might argue that this is a good thing: we are certainly borrowing far too much at the moment and our children and grandchildren will pay the price.
    But it’s not what the delusionists want to believe or what the SNP think they can sell. So they try to avoid talking about it.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,088
    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    You don't think Scotland's large banking sector might see it as an issue that they have in effect no lender of last resort?

    Or the EU while negotiating accession terms?
    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    You don't think Scotland's large banking sector might see it as an issue that they have in effect no lender of last resort?

    Or the EU while negotiating accession terms?
    It seems Scotland is uniquely too wee, too poor and too stupid to become an independent country. After 319 years of Westminster rule, it doesn’t say much for the current arrangements benefiting Scotland.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,452

    Was my polling station the only one to have a security dude in attendance, letting in only one voter at a time?

    They heard you were coming!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,507
    Scott_xP said:

    @johnphudson.bsky.social‬

    SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse

    https://bsky.app/profile/johnphudson.bsky.social/post/3mlbjn7n76a22

    So that's probably 1/2 to 2/3 of the way to the USA midterms.

    Mr Trump will not be a happy bunny.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,346
    eek said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
    We should learn from Brexit. Any future referendum should be on the full published prospective agreement that would be put into effect by both sides in the event of a Yes vote. Neither side can then hide behind evasion or failing to answer the hard questions.

    Yes Cameron was particularly stupid in not allowing anybody to do any planning for a Yes vote.

    I think an alternative is two referenda, one to start negotiations and the second on a final deal.

    Of course any such deal would contain something to upset everybody so it would probably be rejected. Then you'd probably have to have a third referendum to decide whether to leave with no deal or to remain.

    The whole process would probably take a decade. But at least the outcome would have democratic legitimacy.
    Meanwhile are the other 26 countries supposed to stand still while we arse around.

    Cameron's problem and the reason he lost was that Yes became everyone else's desired unicorn outcome no matter how impossible that scenario was in the real world.
    And that is why Cameron should have insisted the Brexiteers devise and put some flesh on the bones of an agreed position to be put to a referendum, not just leave and a miracle happens.
This discussion has been closed.