Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Problem is that popularity is mainly with Reform voters, who will stick with Farage and the Tory core vote.
Cleverly polls better net than Kemi with Labour, LD and Green voters as Yougov found and the Tories need their tactical votes in Tory held seats to beat Reform
Sorry HYUFD, but as we say in Scotland you are talking utter mince! Reform have already peaked in the polls despite their electoral performance over the next 24hrs in the English locals and Devolved Parliaments as the current Labour Government continues to implode.
The momentum is with Kemi Badenoch while Farage's own personal polling continues to fall as the shine comes off his latest reincarnation as the unelected leader of the Reform party which he owns and treats like the political party fiefdoms as he did with the revolving doors of UKIP and the Brexit Party. Already Reform is leaking members to Advance, Restore and back to the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.
I am going to predict that Farage won't even hang around long enough to fight the next GE as Reform leader and the Conservative MPs who jumped ship too soon and defected are going to be left struggling to keep that sinking ship alive by then. I should add that the biggest betting mistake I ever made was not getting a bet on back in the Spring of 2020 that none of the party leaders in charge at Westminster and the devolved governments would around to fight the next GE...
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.
Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.
Does this make me a PB aTory?
Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
We are all PB Tories now.
I was out delivering Labour leaflets last night trying to hold back the Green wave in SE London. As I complained to my wife about the Green's lack of realism and ultra woke nonsense I thought, is this what it feels like to be a Tory?
To an extent yes.
For a long time, there was a hefty chunk of the Conservative Party that wasn't that political, really. Yes, they believed in the virtues of Business, and didn't like Taxes. But the key word was pragmatic. See Iain MacLeod's "we have work to do" speech.
That bit of the Conservative Party turned to dust a while back. The nearest modern equivalent is probably Starmer Labour, maybe Lib Dems where they are a thing.
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
Seb Coe is qlso a contender for London Mayor as Tory candidate
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
2024 was a record breaking result for the Conservatives. If opinion poll trends hold, 2029 will be even more record breaking under Badenoch's leadership.
Labour have allowed crime to run rampant in our capital, whilst the Conservatives are concreting over our green spaces,' @Nigel_Farage tells @theLDNstandard 'Voters have a chance to deliver real change in London.'
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Problem is that popularity is mainly with Reform voters, who will stick with Farage and the Tory core vote.
Cleverly polls better net than Kemi with Labour, LD and Green voters as Yougov found and the Tories need their tactical votes in Tory held seats to beat Reform
Sorry HYUFD, but as we say in Scotland you are talking utter mince! Reform have already peaked in the polls despite their electoral performance over the next 24hrs in the English locals and Devolved Parliaments as the current Labour Government continues to implode.
The momentum is with Kemi Badenoch while Farage's own personal polling continues to fall as the shine comes off his latest reincarnation as the unelected leader of the Reform party which he owns and treats like the political party fiefdoms as he did with the revolving doors of UKIP and the Brexit Party. Already Reform is leaking members to Advance, Restore and back to the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.
I am going to predict that Farage won't even hang around long enough to fight the next GE as Reform leader and the Conservative MPs who jumped ship too soon and defected are going to be left struggling to keep that sinking ship alive by then. I should add that the biggest betting mistake I ever made was not getting a bet on back in the Spring of 2020 that none of the party leaders in charge at Westminster and the devolved governments would around to fight the next GE...
Sounds like wishful thinking to me. Reform will get a fuckton of publicity tomorrow and there is no reason they can't re-peak. You are looking at the polling graph as if it is in some way determinate rather than descriptive
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Why not say if you make the effort you'll reward yourself with a pint?
I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.
One possible outcome (prob making the best of a bad bunch) is a Conservative-LD coalition.
However, they just might not be able to deal.
I expect they would; the Tory leader is actualy quite a decent guy. The LDs would be understandably nervous, given the history, but if it blocks Reform I'd suspect they'll be up for it. They will however both be positioning for the expected mayoral election which will probably be a Tory v LibDem contest, unless Reform really do storm the county.
Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.
Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.
Does this make me a PB aTory?
Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
Seems Saudi Arabia holds some cards. The US has never been so isolated.
President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom”, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.-NBC News
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
Seb Coe is qlso a contender for London Mayor as Tory candidate
Whereas Mark Francois is very likely a non runner.
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
Seb Coe is qlso a contender for London Mayor as Tory candidate
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
They also sell tasteless lager and televise football, if your preferences are more basic!
Seems Saudi Arabia holds some cards. The US has never been so isolated.
President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom”, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.-NBC News
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
I see no evidence that people taking photos of their ballots to prove their vote because of community pressure is a real thing.
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Focus groups are glorified subsamples.
OGH would tell you that Badenoch's not in Cameron's class, she's only looking good because Starmer's so dire (look at the share not the lead as Sir Bob Worcester used to say.)
At various points she's polling worse than the worst LOTOs in the last 50 years.
Corbyn never lost as many councillors at his worst than Badenoch did in 2025 and is likely to lose in 2026.
People say this is the mot unpopular government in history, so why isn't Kemi doing better?
Who would do a better job?
Where does the Conservative Party think they are in the 1997-2010 continuum?
- One scandal away from office (Mandelson’s preparing resignations, for example) - One more heave - One more leader - Big rethink
Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.
Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.
Does this make me a PB aTory?
Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.
Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.
Does this make me a PB aTory?
Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
Seb Coe is qlso a contender for London Mayor as Tory candidate
Seb Coe is old enough to be American president. Has there been any sign he is actively pursuing the Mayoralty?
I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.
One possible outcome (prob making the best of a bad bunch) is a Conservative-LD coalition.
However, they just might not be able to deal.
I expect they would; the Tory leader is actualy quite a decent guy. The LDs would be understandably nervous, given the history, but if it blocks Reform I'd suspect they'll be up for it. They will however both be positioning for the expected mayoral election which will probably be a Tory v LibDem contest, unless Reform really do storm the county.
My local Hampshire Tory councillor has been doing stuff all over social media about potholes/roadworks and, er, buses, the latter being something the Tories have had a lack of interest in up to this point. So yes maybe preparing for a deal.
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
It gives those people some method of being able to keep their ballot secret without needing to stand up to their husbands or "community leaders" themselves. They can just say they had to do it. Again it's not going to solve all of the issues but there will definitely be a reduction in coercion overall.
Postal ballots are the real problem IMO and even though I use postal voting (though I forgot to post my ballot this time so I'll need to go and drop it into the polling station anyway) the system should be restricted to essentially people with severe physical disabilities that couldn't otherwise vote because the journey to the polling station is too taxing.
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
Seb Coe is qlso a contender for London Mayor as Tory candidate
Is that for real, or are you just wish casting in order to keep Cleverly on the potential LOTO position?
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
It gives those people some method of being able to keep their ballot secret without needing to stand up to their husbands or "community leaders" themselves. They can just say they had to do it. Again it's not going to solve all of the issues but there will definitely be a reduction in coercion overall.
Postal ballots are the real problem IMO and even though I use postal voting (though I forgot to post my ballot this time so I'll need to go and drop it into the polling station anyway) the system should be restricted to essentially people with severe physical disabilities that couldn't otherwise vote because the journey to the polling station is too taxing.
There is no reason why CCTV can't be used in polling booths. They already know how you voted through your ballot paper number.
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Cookie will be crossdressing as an old maid as he pauses to cast his vote while cycling to communion.
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
What will save Badenoch is that there are no serious contenders, just has beens like Cleverly and the untried like Lam.
It is a choice worse than Labours options.
Labour are looking for the next PM though and Burnham outpolls all other political leaders of any party at present. The Conservatives just need a leader who can stop the party going extinct and Cleverly might get the anti Reform tactical votes for that
I am not convinced that there are in reality many anti Reform voters willing to vote Tory, but even if there were than that is not a great position. That support would be wafer thin and disappear quickly.
The Tories need a leader who can put out a clear vision of what they and the party are for, and what they want to achieve, not just what they are against. Labour are the same. There has to be some sort of ideological backbone.
I’m quite tempted, at the last moment, to vote Conservative to give Kemi a vote of confidence - like @Cookie
Not that it matters in the ultra woke wastelands on the Primrose Hill borders
But I’ll stick with Reform at least for now. Epater les bourgeois and all that
However on the subject of Kemi I note she is now getting voluble support from right leaning intelligentsia - some of it across the pond. I saw Niall Ferguson enthusing about her on X this week. This may not seem important, but it is. Badenoch is building an intellectual and media base, of influential people. It gives her gravitas and salience
Note that Starmer had none of this and has none of this, and boy does it show
Will it be enough to save her? I hope so. As a new born balcony gardener Badenoch to me resembles a young plant you bought two years ago that spiralled down towards an inevitable death but now, suddenly, in the last few months, vigorous new growth and sudden fresh leaves are appearing. You do not bin that plant
The d'Hondt system must confuse quite a number of voters if they look at the arithmetic of vote counting. But a rule of thumb is, use the regional list vote to express your genuine preference and the constituency vote for your tactical vote to thwart your disfavoured party/candidate if necessary. This means that the constituency vote is the difficult one to cast because you need to know where the balance of parties is in the constituency.
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
Wish me luck, I may need it...
As I said, we are all PB Tories now.
P.S. I am not sure I could go that far. Is drawing a cock and balls not an option?
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
It gives those people some method of being able to keep their ballot secret without needing to stand up to their husbands or "community leaders" themselves. They can just say they had to do it. Again it's not going to solve all of the issues but there will definitely be a reduction in coercion overall.
Postal ballots are the real problem IMO and even though I use postal voting (though I forgot to post my ballot this time so I'll need to go and drop it into the polling station anyway) the system should be restricted to essentially people with severe physical disabilities that couldn't otherwise vote because the journey to the polling station is too taxing.
Yeah, all those female Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton would have voted for Matt Goodwin if they hadn't been intimidated for the blond lady with the dogs.
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
Wish me luck, I may need it...
I thought you'd decided internally you were a Tory so not much of hardship I imagine.
Presumably this was sotto voce from Alex Cole-Hamala, I understood most parties have a restriction on members and reps publicly advocating voting for another party.
Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).
I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.
The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that
Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
I agree that if Streeting triggers a contest it seems inconceivable that there won’t be a reaction to try and find an alternative candidate. That assumes that he doesn’t already have the cabinet sewn up, of course, but I suspect there’s still enough opposition there to try and find an alternative. I am a broken record on this but if I was Miliband, Cooper, Healey in this scenario I might be looking at installing phone lines as a “reluctant” unity candidate…
Surely the role of the union block vote makes it different? You have a significant percentage cast by very political actors who have no direct stake in becoming PM themselves
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Cookie will be crossdressing as an old maid as he pauses to cast his vote while cycling to communion.
Those living at the other end of the road to Cookie get to vote, watched over by Danger Mouse, Count Duckula, Chorlton and the Wheelies, and their friends in our polling station.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Why not say if you make the effort you'll reward yourself with a pint?
Ukraine has just hit a Russian military complex at Naro-Fominsk, just 40 miles outside Moscow.
#explodey
That's just SW of the concentration of >100 air defence systems around Moscow that Ukraine published a map of on Monday, after flying FP-1 drones through the defences. Suggests that Ukraine is planning to concentrate on targets left undefended by the emphasis on defending the Victory Day parade.
When do we have to wait to actually get a good idea of the trend? Friday evening? Or even later than that?
The London councils announcing in the small hours tonight will give some idea as to how badly Labour and Greens will do in the capital, and the northern results expected overnight plus the hotchpotch of councils electing by thirds will reveal whether the Reform surge is on. Tory prospects should start becoming clearer by Friday lunchtime, the LibDems in the afternoon, the SNP by evening. Although a lot of the Hampshire counting is tonight, I think, which will provide a snashot on the Tories, Reform and LDs.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
I try to vote in local elections on local issues. That's assuming I know enough about them. However I have decided the Greens under Zack are too toxic, which of course is based on national issues.
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Why not say if you make the effort you'll reward yourself with a pint?
I would. Definitely.
(If I could still climb stairs.Is there a lift?)
There is indeed! It really could function as the pb pub. No trains for Sunil, sadly, but it is within earshot of trams.
I’m quite tempted, at the last moment, to vote Conservative to give Kemi a vote of confidence - like @Cookie
Not that it matters in the ultra woke wastelands on the Primrose Hill borders
But I’ll stick with Reform at least for now. Epater les bourgeois and all that
However on the subject of Kemi I note she is now getting voluble support from right leaning intelligentsia - some of it across the pond. I saw Niall Ferguson enthusing about her on X this week. This may not seem important, but it is. Badenoch is building an intellectual and media base, of influential people. It gives her gravitas and salience
Note that Starmer had none of this and has none of this, and boy does it show
Will it be enough to save her? I hope so. As a new born balcony gardener Badenoch to me resembles a young plant you bought two years ago that spiralled down towards an inevitable death but now, suddenly, in the last few months, vigorous new growth and sudden fresh leaves are appearing. You do not bin that plant
I don’t mind Kemi. But I can’t trust that she has a grip of the wets and that they won’t return on mass if the Tory MP count recovers.
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Cookie will be crossdressing as an old maid as he pauses to cast his vote while cycling to communion.
Those living at the other end of the road to Cookie get to vote, watched over by Danger Mouse, Count Duckula, Chorlton and the Wheelies, and their friends in our polling station.
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
Wish me luck, I may need it...
I thought you'd decided internally you were a Tory so not much of hardship I imagine.
Presumably this was sotto voce from Alex Cole-Hamala, I understood most parties have a restriction on members and reps publicly advocating voting for another party.
I am not advocating anyone to go and vote for another party and I am parroting our open campaign about voting LD on the Peach ballot. Its literally all we have said nationally.
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Focus groups are glorified subsamples.
OGH would tell you that Badenoch's not in Cameron's class, she's only looking good because Starmer's so dire (look at the share not the lead as Sir Bob Worcester used to say.)
At various points she's polling worse than the worst LOTOs in the last 50 years.
Corbyn never lost as many councillors at his worst than Badenoch did in 2025 and is likely to lose in 2026.
People say this is the mot unpopular government in history, so why isn't Kemi doing better?
The Tories are recovering from the worst defeat in their history - it was never going to be easy. Badenoch has at least shown some signs of improvement. She'd do better if she concentrated on money issues rather than cultural ones, the latter is stronger territory for Reform, and perhaps she needs a stronger shadow Chancellor to help with that.
Ukraine has just hit a Russian military complex at Naro-Fominsk, just 40 miles outside Moscow.
#explodey
That's just SW of the concentration of >100 air defence systems around Moscow that Ukraine published a map of on Monday, after flying FP-1 drones through the defences. Suggests that Ukraine is planning to concentrate on targets left undefended by the emphasis on defending the Victory Day parade.
Also Putin has cancelled the clean up day where Moscowites turn out to smarten the place up ready for the parade. People on the streets talking to each other about the state of the country is seen as a security threat it seems.
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Cookie will be crossdressing as an old maid as he pauses to cast his vote while cycling to communion.
Alas no cross-dressing today and certainly no church, but chances are I will go there on my bike (for reasons connected to the possibility of alcohol afterwards).
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
There's a chance the residents might deprive Reform of a majority - although as the Havering residents were effectively Reform before it was invented, it may not matter.
When do we have to wait to actually get a good idea of the trend? Friday evening? Or even later than that?
The London councils announcing in the small hours tonight will give some idea as to how badly Labour and Greens will do in the capital, and the northern results expected overnight plus the hotchpotch of councils electing by thirds will reveal whether the Reform surge is on. Tory prospects should start becoming clearer by Friday lunchtime, the LibDems in the afternoon, the SNP by evening. Although a lot of the Hampshire counting is tonight, I think, which will provide a snashot on the Tories, Reform and LDs.
A lot of the London councils counting overnight are in the south-west and not necessarily that indicative of what's happening in the rest of the city.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
Huzzah!
Am I the only PBer openly voting Reform today? If so it shows how badly skewed this site is becoming. Reform are leading the polls and have done for many months. Indeed in recent days it looks like their decline has halted and they’re slowly improving again - as they remain in front
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Focus groups are glorified subsamples.
OGH would tell you that Badenoch's not in Cameron's class, she's only looking good because Starmer's so dire (look at the share not the lead as Sir Bob Worcester used to say.)
At various points she's polling worse than the worst LOTOs in the last 50 years.
Corbyn never lost as many councillors at his worst than Badenoch did in 2025 and is likely to lose in 2026.
People say this is the mot unpopular government in history, so why isn't Kemi doing better?
The Tories are recovering from the worst defeat in their history - it was never going to be easy. Badenoch has at least shown some signs of improvement. She'd do better if she concentrated on money issues rather than cultural ones, the latter is stronger territory for Reform, and perhaps she needs a stronger shadow Chancellor to help with that.
I don't think the Tories are recovering from their worst defeat in their history. Their have shed around a quarter of that 24% share of the vote.
I am not convinced that there is benefit to changing Badenoch for another muppet. The problems run much deeper than that.
Off topic, I have one of the most pleasant polling stations to vote in in the country. It is at the local cricket club: it is possible to vote, then go upstairs for a reasonably well-kept and reasonably priced pint of real ale and a low-key conversation while catching an only-vaguely-interested eye over whatever cricket is happening beneath the setting sun, or else sitting on a comfy seat looking at whatever is exciting Sky Sports today. Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
Real ale and cricket? Pleasant? Is this a parody account?
Cookie will be crossdressing as an old maid as he pauses to cast his vote while cycling to communion.
Alas no cross-dressing today and certainly no church, but chances are I will go there on my bike (for reasons connected to the possibility of alcohol afterwards).
I diverted on my bike to waste my vote as always, only observation would be what an absolute mess of gridlocked beeping SUVs and other private vehicles on those roads. Are people really that stupid that they get in their car and do that every weekday morning?
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
Fair comment
My view is this .
If I woke up with the Tories winning the next election and Badenoch in charge of course I would be disappointed but not fearful of what could happen to the country . If it was Reform I would be horrified and I expect they would trash our democracy and it will become even more polarised with performative cruelty on steroids .
When do we have to wait to actually get a good idea of the trend? Friday evening? Or even later than that?
The London councils announcing in the small hours tonight will give some idea as to how badly Labour and Greens will do in the capital, and the northern results expected overnight plus the hotchpotch of councils electing by thirds will reveal whether the Reform surge is on. Tory prospects should start becoming clearer by Friday lunchtime, the LibDems in the afternoon, the SNP by evening. Although a lot of the Hampshire counting is tonight, I think, which will provide a snashot on the Tories, Reform and LDs.
A lot of the London councils counting overnight are in the south-west and not necessarily that indicative of what's happening in the rest of the city.
Redbridge is in the NE of the capital and won't declare until tomorrow afternoon!
In the pub last night was asked "Why haven't we got any elections?" - this in deepest Leicestershire. Not sure if would be better if all local elections were at the same time as I think happens in for example France.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
There's a chance the residents might deprive Reform of a majority - although as the Havering residents were effectively Reform before it was invented, it may not matter.
The real racists were the 'Independent Residents' thoroughly nasty but lost their seats last time round- the RAs are mostly 1950s Morris Minor conservatives.
April data highlighted another challenging month for the UK construction sector as business activity decreased and cost inflation intensified.
The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) – an index tracking changes in total industry activity – registered 39.7 in April, down from 45.6 in March and indicative of a sharp fall in overall business activity. Reduced output has been seen in each month since January 2025 and the latest reading was the weakest for five months.
Civil engineering activity (index at 35.3) registered the steepest decline, followed by house building (38.2). Commercial work (42.7) showed some resilience in comparison to elsewhere in the construction sector, although the latest reduction was the fastest recorded so far in 2026.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
Huzzah!
Am I the only PBer openly voting Reform today? If so it shows how badly skewed this site is becoming. Reform are leading the polls and have done for many months. Indeed in recent days it looks like their decline has halted and they’re slowly improving again - as they remain in front
Yet just one PBer votes for them? Tsk
Do Luckyguy or theProle have a vote today? They have both made Reform-friendly noises in the past.
I think the site is reasonably representative of middle class views*. For a brief period of political history - coinciding with the site's founding - this corresponded reasonably closely to 'representative of UK political views.' But this is no longer true and Reform voting is a bit of a niche pursuit among the middle classes.
*why this is is a deeper question. I suppose we middle class types have the freedom to sit at work checking in on pb.com in a way that Tesco delivery drivers or quarrymen or dustbin men do not.
It seems everyone on here is now voting Conservative and praising Kemi Badenoch to the skies.
To use the gardening analogy, being cosseted in the indoor garden with the herbaceous intelligentsia and Niallus Fergusonium might be fine but she'll have to cope with the more rigorous environment of the outdoor world before long.
Her tendency to the uncosted populist pledge is a concern as is my abiding doubt whatever she says on working or not working with Reform will go out the window if the Parliamentary arithmetic means Reform plus Conservatives equals a majority. Oddly enough, I'd be more likely to vote for her if she said she would support a non-Reform Government but we all know that won't happen.
Here in Newham, fortunately, voting Conservative is about as useful as voting Lib Dem, Reform or CPA. I will vote LD for the Mayor but as I have three Council seats and one LD candidate, I have a dilemma over my other two votes which I've not resolved.
Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!
Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!
Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!
It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.
Focus groups are glorified subsamples.
OGH would tell you that Badenoch's not in Cameron's class, she's only looking good because Starmer's so dire (look at the share not the lead as Sir Bob Worcester used to say.)
At various points she's polling worse than the worst LOTOs in the last 50 years.
Corbyn never lost as many councillors at his worst than Badenoch did in 2025 and is likely to lose in 2026.
People say this is the mot unpopular government in history, so why isn't Kemi doing better?
The Tories are recovering from the worst defeat in their history - it was never going to be easy. Badenoch has at least shown some signs of improvement. She'd do better if she concentrated on money issues rather than cultural ones, the latter is stronger territory for Reform, and perhaps she needs a stronger shadow Chancellor to help with that.
The "signs of improvement" are that her party has *fallen* to a range of 17-21% in the polls. *Her* ratings are good-ish, but her *party*s are not.
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
One way round this is to provide people with a dummy extra ballot that they can take a photo of, to satisfy the person trying to coerce them, while they put their true voting intention on a genuine ballot paper.
As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.
It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.
That's it.
Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.
The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
Well I approve of the sentiment, but I can't see how you'd enforce it. "Please surrender your phone". "I don't habe it with me." "OK". *vote* *click* *send to community-leader*
It gives those people some method of being able to keep their ballot secret without needing to stand up to their husbands or "community leaders" themselves. They can just say they had to do it. Again it's not going to solve all of the issues but there will definitely be a reduction in coercion overall.
Postal ballots are the real problem IMO and even though I use postal voting (though I forgot to post my ballot this time so I'll need to go and drop it into the polling station anyway) the system should be restricted to essentially people with severe physical disabilities that couldn't otherwise vote because the journey to the polling station is too taxing.
Yeah, all those female Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton would have voted for Matt Goodwin if they hadn't been intimidated for the blond lady with the dogs.
I think it’s worth reminding everyone that there was no evidence found at all of “family voting” or coercion, and that no issues were raised during voting.
Even if there was some sort of vast Muslim conspiracy, the simple demographic arithmetic finds it near impossible for the result to have been swung by it. It would require exceptionally high turnout differentials. The Greens won a 12 point victory, and the left:right ratio was 7:1.
But MaxPB thinks Khan allow wins London due to Muslim voters, even though they make up only 15% of the population, so we’re going to struggle to persuade.
Seems Saudi Arabia holds some cards. The US has never been so isolated.
President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom”, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.-NBC News
Is Saudi policy to keep this going until Iran collapses?
It's a good question. There may be some strategy behind it - Saudi wants a deal with Iran and this performative stuff gets in the way of that. But I suspect mainly Saudi is pissed off and doesn't appreciate Trump launching operations to Saudi detriment without informing them. Once bitten, twice shy.
When do we have to wait to actually get a good idea of the trend? Friday evening? Or even later than that?
The London councils announcing in the small hours tonight will give some idea as to how badly Labour and Greens will do in the capital, and the northern results expected overnight plus the hotchpotch of councils electing by thirds will reveal whether the Reform surge is on. Tory prospects should start becoming clearer by Friday lunchtime, the LibDems in the afternoon, the SNP by evening. Although a lot of the Hampshire counting is tonight, I think, which will provide a snashot on the Tories, Reform and LDs.
A lot of the London councils counting overnight are in the south-west and not necessarily that indicative of what's happening in the rest of the city.
I believe the prospective Tory gains of Westminster and Wandswoth count tonight, as well as Hammersmith, Havering and possibly Bexley. SO that's a decent spread - not just the LD ones
After the boundary changes, my constituency is still leaning SNP, so held my nose and voted Lab and Con on the list. The list ballot paper unfurled like a scroll today.
April data highlighted another challenging month for the UK construction sector as business activity decreased and cost inflation intensified.
The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) – an index tracking changes in total industry activity – registered 39.7 in April, down from 45.6 in March and indicative of a sharp fall in overall business activity. Reduced output has been seen in each month since January 2025 and the latest reading was the weakest for five months.
Civil engineering activity (index at 35.3) registered the steepest decline, followed by house building (38.2). Commercial work (42.7) showed some resilience in comparison to elsewhere in the construction sector, although the latest reduction was the fastest recorded so far in 2026.
Seems Saudi Arabia holds some cards. The US has never been so isolated.
President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom”, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.-NBC News
Like everyone else who has ever bribed Trump, they're discovering it's only a temporary transaction, and does not make him any more reliable in the future. The war is damaging every economy on the world (with the exception of oil producers outside of the region, exemplified by Norway), and governments are fed up with it.
I'm not sure I can convince myself to go through with voting LibDem. Even though it's the only logical choice here. Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
Yes. I voted against Reform by voting for the Havering Residents Association, who are more conservative than the Conservatives (and mostly ex-Conservatives) who I wouldn't normally touch with a bargepole. Things are so bad I even considered voting Tory, but they have clearly given up in this ward whereas the RA's have continued fighting it hard. I still expect to wake up with 3 Reform councillors and a Reform council though.
Huzzah!
Am I the only PBer openly voting Reform today? If so it shows how badly skewed this site is becoming. Reform are leading the polls and have done for many months. Indeed in recent days it looks like their decline has halted and they’re slowly improving again - as they remain in front
Yet just one PBer votes for them? Tsk
What reform doing for you locally - the leaflets I’ve seen had nothing that was the people being elected could do anything about
Morning all Civic duty completed here in the Broads, compulsory turnout report 'steady' - one in front of me, one in as i left. On the ca. 1 mile walk to and from spotted 5 vote Reform and 2 Vote Tory placards/posters but Reform score a double win for the comically large farmers field style placard in the front garden of the house across the road directly opposite the polling station. My vote probably didnt cancel that out for impact
It seems everyone on here is now voting Conservative and praising Kemi Badenoch to the skies.
To use the gardening analogy, being cosseted in the indoor garden with the herbaceous intelligentsia and Niallus Fergusonium might be fine but she'll have to cope with the more rigorous environment of the outdoor world before long.
Her tendency to the uncosted populist pledge is a concern as is my abiding doubt whatever she says on working or not working with Reform will go out the window if the Parliamentary arithmetic means Reform plus Conservatives equals a majority. Oddly enough, I'd be more likely to vote for her if she said she would support a non-Reform Government but we all know that won't happen.
Here in Newham, fortunately, voting Conservative is about as useful as voting Lib Dem, Reform or CPA. I will vote LD for the Mayor but as I have three Council seats and one LD candidate, I have a dilemma over my other two votes which I've not resolved.
Yes re Badenoch, but how much of that is down to her and how much is down to a realignment that was happening anyway?
I remain deeply skeptical that anyone else would have done any better right now, out of the relatively slim pickings the Tories have when it comes to parliamentary talent.
That’s not to say that I think Badenoch is perfect, or that she is putting in enough of the hard graft to formulate an alternative or to look like a party ready to return to government, but it strikes me as silly to suggest a defenestration, another bout of infighting and a new leader will do anything to help the Tories right now. If the polls haven’t moved in the next 18 months, I can understand the party feeling a greater concern about what their offering is and should be. Right now, they just need to give Badenoch time and see what happens.
I’m quite tempted, at the last moment, to vote Conservative to give Kemi a vote of confidence - like @Cookie
Not that it matters in the ultra woke wastelands on the Primrose Hill borders
But I’ll stick with Reform at least for now. Epater les bourgeois and all that
However on the subject of Kemi I note she is now getting voluble support from right leaning intelligentsia - some of it across the pond. I saw Niall Ferguson enthusing about her on X this week. This may not seem important, but it is. Badenoch is building an intellectual and media base, of influential people. It gives her gravitas and salience
Note that Starmer had none of this and has none of this, and boy does it show
Will it be enough to save her? I hope so. As a new born balcony gardener Badenoch to me resembles a young plant you bought two years ago that spiralled down towards an inevitable death but now, suddenly, in the last few months, vigorous new growth and sudden fresh leaves are appearing. You do not bin that plant
I don’t mind Kemi. But I can’t trust that she has a grip of the wets and that they won’t return on mass if the Tory MP count recovers.
Just to understand: you *don’t* want to attract new voters? Isn’t that a little counterintuitive for a political party?
Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
30% now.
Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.
In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.
A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.
Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.
So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.
*Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
Kemi isn't going anywhere.
Good morning
Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29
Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast
Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road
The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.
This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
What will save Badenoch is that there are no serious contenders, just has beens like Cleverly and the untried like Lam.
It is a choice worse than Labours options.
Labour are looking for the next PM though and Burnham outpolls all other political leaders of any party at present. The Conservatives just need a leader who can stop the party going extinct and Cleverly might get the anti Reform tactical votes for that
I am not convinced that there are in reality many anti Reform voters willing to vote Tory, but even if there were than that is not a great position. That support would be wafer thin and disappear quickly.
The Tories need a leader who can put out a clear vision of what they and the party are for, and what they want to achieve, not just what they are against. Labour are the same. There has to be some sort of ideological backbone.
Yes but out Reforming Reform just means a likely Reform takeover of the Tories. There is no point Kemi leading a Reform 2 party
Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).
I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.
The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that
Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
I agree that if Streeting triggers a contest it seems inconceivable that there won’t be a reaction to try and find an alternative candidate. That assumes that he doesn’t already have the cabinet sewn up, of course, but I suspect there’s still enough opposition there to try and find an alternative. I am a broken record on this but if I was Miliband, Cooper, Healey in this scenario I might be looking at installing phone lines as a “reluctant” unity candidate…
Surely the role of the union block vote makes it different? You have a significant percentage cast by very political actors who have no direct stake in becoming PM themselves
There isn't a union block vote for party leader. Trade Union members get a vote. Though there have been some questions raised about literature sent with the ballot papers in an attempt to encourage the vote in one direction over another.
In the pub last night was asked "Why haven't we got any elections?" - this in deepest Leicestershire. Not sure if would be better if all local elections were at the same time as I think happens in for example France.
In contrast, I don't understand why councils have to have them all on the same day
As usual I won't tell you who I voted for. But I did have two votes and I split them. The local one was more right-wing but I voted for them because they popped round, identified a local area that needed improvement, and I thought they were decent and would at least try. The other one was more left wing and a bit spur-of-the-moment. The two were from different parties.
Comments
Even so, I'm only 70% sure I'll bother. If that's true for reasonaly-engaged me with such a fine polling station, it's no wonder turnout is unimpressive.
For a long time, there was a hefty chunk of the Conservative Party that wasn't that political, really. Yes, they believed in the virtues of Business, and didn't like Taxes. But the key word was pragmatic. See Iain MacLeod's "we have work to do" speech.
That bit of the Conservative Party turned to dust a while back. The nearest modern equivalent is probably Starmer Labour, maybe Lib Dems where they are a thing.
I think this counts as "grim reality"
Dull.
Is Saudi policy to keep this going until Iran collapses?
Where does the Conservative Party think they are in the 1997-2010 continuum?
- One scandal away from office (Mandelson’s preparing resignations, for example)
- One more heave
- One more leader
- Big rethink
?
Postal ballots are the real problem IMO and even though I use postal voting (though I forgot to post my ballot this time so I'll need to go and drop it into the polling station anyway) the system should be restricted to essentially people with severe physical disabilities that couldn't otherwise vote because the journey to the polling station is too taxing.
I wonder what Labour would poll with Burnham or Streeting not stepping on rakes constantly.
I missed many threads including a Holyrood seats one. Here in Banffshire & Buchan Coast it feels like a 3 way toss-up. SNP hold it and the MSP is less swivel-eyed than some of them. Tories are standing a decent candidate. And then we have the fuker.
I am voting tactically. The LD campaign has - with exceptions in a few seats - been entirely focused on the list vote. I've had it from the boss man himself that tactical voting is ok.
So I am going out later to vote Tory for the first time ever. To try and stop both an SNP majority and the fukers.
Wish me luck, I may need it...
The Tories need a leader who can put out a clear vision of what they and the party are for, and what they want to achieve, not just what they are against. Labour are the same. There has to be some sort of ideological backbone.
Not that it matters in the ultra woke wastelands on the Primrose Hill borders
But I’ll stick with Reform at least for now. Epater les bourgeois and all that
However on the subject of Kemi I note she is now getting voluble support from right leaning intelligentsia - some of it across the pond. I saw Niall Ferguson enthusing about her on X this week. This may not seem important, but it is. Badenoch is building an intellectual and media base, of influential people. It gives her gravitas and salience
Note that Starmer had none of this and has none of this, and boy does it show
Will it be enough to save her? I hope so. As a new born balcony gardener Badenoch to me resembles a young plant you bought two years ago that spiralled down towards an inevitable death but now, suddenly, in the last few months, vigorous new growth and sudden fresh leaves are appearing. You do not bin that plant
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/L_5CUqhFS0Y
P.S. I am not sure I could go that far. Is drawing a cock and balls not an option?
Presumably this was sotto voce from Alex Cole-Hamala, I understood most parties have a restriction on members and reps publicly advocating voting for another party.
https://watersidearts.org/about/news/cosgrove-hall-films-archive-in-sale-library/
Even though it's the only logical choice here.
Is tactical voting more prevalent than ever on here this time?
(If I could still climb stairs.Is there a lift?)
https://t.me/noel_reports/45904
Doubt very much if I'll vote Green at the GE. If I'm still here, of course!!!!
Also Putin has cancelled the clean up day where Moscowites turn out to smarten the place up ready for the parade. People on the streets talking to each other about the state of the country is seen as a security threat it seems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W5aKwrsYIM
Am I the only PBer openly voting Reform today? If so it shows how badly skewed this site is becoming. Reform are leading the polls and have done for many months. Indeed in recent days it looks like their decline has halted and they’re slowly improving again - as they remain in front
Yet just one PBer votes for them? Tsk
I am not convinced that there is benefit to changing Badenoch for another muppet. The problems run much deeper than that.
Are people really that stupid that they get in their car and do that every weekday morning?
Welcome to the dark side
Joe Guinan
@joecguinan
·
7h
From “a decade of national renewal” to “don’t cry on camera if the results are bad.”
https://x.com/joecguinan/status/2052194315514826791?s=20
April data highlighted another challenging month for the UK construction sector as business activity decreased and cost inflation intensified.
The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) – an index tracking changes in total industry activity – registered 39.7 in April, down from 45.6 in March and indicative of a sharp fall in overall business activity. Reduced output has been seen in each month since January 2025 and the latest reading was the weakest for five months.
Civil engineering activity (index at 35.3) registered the steepest decline, followed by house building (38.2). Commercial work (42.7) showed some resilience in comparison to elsewhere in the construction sector, although the latest reduction was the fastest recorded so far in 2026.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/20cf659688d14e4b9777c07ae41548e1
I think the site is reasonably representative of middle class views*. For a brief period of political history - coinciding with the site's founding - this corresponded reasonably closely to 'representative of UK political views.' But this is no longer true and Reform voting is a bit of a niche pursuit among the middle classes.
*why this is is a deeper question. I suppose we middle class types have the freedom to sit at work checking in on pb.com in a way that Tesco delivery drivers or quarrymen or dustbin men do not.
To use the gardening analogy, being cosseted in the indoor garden with the herbaceous intelligentsia and Niallus Fergusonium might be fine but she'll have to cope with the more rigorous environment of the outdoor world before long.
Her tendency to the uncosted populist pledge is a concern as is my abiding doubt whatever she says on working or not working with Reform will go out the window if the Parliamentary arithmetic means Reform plus Conservatives equals a majority. Oddly enough, I'd be more likely to vote for her if she said she would support a non-Reform Government but we all know that won't happen.
Here in Newham, fortunately, voting Conservative is about as useful as voting Lib Dem, Reform or CPA. I will vote LD for the Mayor but as I have three Council seats and one LD candidate, I have a dilemma over my other two votes which I've not resolved.
Even if there was some sort of vast Muslim conspiracy, the simple demographic arithmetic finds it near impossible for the result to have been swung by it. It would require exceptionally high turnout differentials. The Greens won a 12 point victory, and the left:right ratio was 7:1.
But MaxPB thinks Khan allow wins London due to Muslim voters, even though they make up only 15% of the population, so we’re going to struggle to persuade.
The list ballot paper unfurled like a scroll today.
The war is damaging every economy on the world (with the exception of oil producers outside of the region, exemplified by Norway), and governments are fed up with it.
Civic duty completed here in the Broads, compulsory turnout report 'steady' - one in front of me, one in as i left. On the ca. 1 mile walk to and from spotted 5 vote Reform and 2 Vote Tory placards/posters but Reform score a double win for the comically large farmers field style placard in the front garden of the house across the road directly opposite the polling station. My vote probably didnt cancel that out for impact
I remain deeply skeptical that anyone else would have done any better right now, out of the relatively slim pickings the Tories have when it comes to parliamentary talent.
That’s not to say that I think Badenoch is perfect, or that she is putting in enough of the hard graft to formulate an alternative or to look like a party ready to return to government, but it strikes me as silly to suggest a defenestration, another bout of infighting and a new leader will do anything to help the Tories right now. If the polls haven’t moved in the next 18 months, I can understand the party feeling a greater concern about what their offering is and should be. Right now, they just need to give Badenoch time and see what happens.