Noch out. Will it be curtains for Kemi? – politicalbetting.com
Noch out. Will it be curtains for Kemi? – politicalbetting.com
While the main headlines on Friday will likely be about Labour’s woes, the Conservatives are also set for a tough time, potentially losing 500-1,000 councilors in England and falling behind Reform in Scotland and Wales.
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OT - in the case of all the party leaders, the real question is who would have higher ratings, if they replaced the leader.
In the case of Labour, there are a couple of candidates. In the case of the Conservatives, who polls better?
Replacing the leader, to do the same or worse, won’t happen in any party.
The locals are also being fought on some very unhelpful previous baselines, so heavy losses are not automatically proof that a different leader would do better. A leadership contest now risks reminding voters of exactly the chaos they threw out in 2024.
The difficulty is that Tory MPs are not famous for calmly distinguishing structural decay from leadership failure. If the result is bad enough, Bob Blackman’s postbox may still require reinforced concrete.
Look at the bar chart in this header.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/02/09/one-party-has-form-for-ousting-leaders-the-other-less-so/
For most people it's beyond the pale to advocate for someone who's just stabbed two people and put the blame on the police who for once did a good job under the circumstances to eliminate a threat before anyone died.
It shows us one of two things, either Polanski has a completely empathy compass (probably true) or he's calculated that supporting a Muslim terrorist vs Jews will win him votes (maybe true). Either one shows he's unfit for office but as we've been discussing, many young women seem to let all of the facts wash over them and seem to want to put their own feel good factor first, right now voting for the greens makes them feel good about themselves. That may change over time but probably not in the short term.
We can have a sensible discussion about motive, blame, punishment etc. But to argue that the police should have held back from whatever they needed to do to disarm him is to see only one tiny part of the picture of potential harms here.
There's an interesting piece in the New Statesman today, by its Editor, which has a genuine feel unlike all those Times and Telegraph "exclusives". Paywall, but here are some extracts:
------------------------
Angela vs Andy vs Wes vs Keir
Rayner is prepared to risk it all
By Tom McTague
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/05/angela-vs-andy-vs-wes-vs-keir
...Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party. But she is also known to be sceptical of the idea that the members of the NEC who rejected Burnham’s attempt to return to parliament in January will allow him back now......
... And so, the question turns to Rayner’s own ambitions.....Politics is not merely counting, but having the instincts to seize opportunities, and to make virtues of vices. Those around Rayner have been struck by her confidence.....Rayner believes modern politics demands characters who are unafraid of being divisive, of making enemies and even of nurturing them. The theatre of Donald Trump dressing down those he opposes has not gone unnoticed among her team, who believe the executives of water companies deserve similar treatment. Though Rayner bristles at those who dislike her for her upbringing or accent, she does not resent those who hold her in disdain for her politics. Indeed, she believes it would be a source of strength in power. She is also prepared to risk it all.
Some people just don't live in the real world, Roger is one of them. I think sometimes he's still on the set of that Lebanese advert with bikini clad women singing this praises hoping for a passport.
And while it seems highly unlikely that it will be Badenoch ordering the new Downing St curtains in three years time, as the headline seems to suggest, you never know.
Oddschecker no, Befair Exchange no, Betfair Sportsbook no, PredictIt no, Smarkets no, Polymarket no, Kalshi no, SpreadEx no, Sporting index no, Ladbrokes YES, William Hill no, Paddypower no.
https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/scottish-politics/2026-scottish-parliamentary-election-constituency-betting/255351594/main-markets
Just to emphasize how bad of a hole the Trump Administration is in right now, (his approval rating on) gas prices this morning literally plummeted so far we had to fix the Y axis of this chart.
https://x.com/davidshor/status/2051782989894361406
Changing leader now risks reminding the public of the exact chaos they voted against. The counterpoint is that Tory MPs have spent the last decade mistaking leadership changes for strategy, so “fools to do so” is not exactly a disqualifying condition.
Diamond
Yes the elections will be difficult, but the big story will indeed be the Labour losses.
Kemi's approval ratings have now improved too and she clearly polls better than Starmer, Farage and Polanski on a net approval rating basis and about level with Davey. So I expect she now probably survives, her main rival Jenrick has defected to Reform and while Cleverly is now the likely Tory reserve leader he seems to be looking towards running for London Mayor and only in the event of a Tory disaster ie coming well behind both Reform and Labour on NEV and maybe even falling behind the LDs and Greens on seats won would a VONC and a Cleverly coronation come into prospect
I like Kemi and would be disappointed if she were ousted. I also think it would be the wrong decision. The argument that she has them on lower VI than the GE is an easy one to make, but it applies to every other leader bar Farage as well; the market has been blown up by the TNT that is Reform and the Greens, but the best thing to do is wait for the dust to settle and plough on. Same goes for Sir Keir and Labour. We live in a disposable culture which is not necessarily healthy and it would be good if a couple of leaders suffered the hard times and came out the other side stronger
The "Challenge" series
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/06/02/the-challenge-for-labour/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/06/12/the-challenge-for-plaid-cymru/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/06/21/the-challenge-for-reform-uk/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/07/11/the-challenge-for-the-liberal-democrats/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/07/22/challenge-for-the-snp/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/09/08/the-challenge-for-the-green-parties/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/09/20/the-challenge-for-the-conservatives/
Other (2024)
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/24/persepolis-now-looking-at-the-future-of-iran/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/15/the-butterfly-effect-bush-vs-gore-revisited/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/29/senatus-populusque-previewing-novembers-other-elections/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/25/trumped-why-the-democrats-lost-and-what-they-need-to-do-next/
Other (2025)
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/08/the-law-of-unintended-consequences/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/08/rebuild-copy-or-destroy-how-should-we-deal-with-our-cities-history/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/03/07/the-seventy-five-years-war-how-to-fix-israel-and-palestine/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/22/papa-dont-preach-looking-at-the-contenders-to-be-next-pope/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/10/03/analysing-the-september-2025-yougov-mrp/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/11/11/will-tactical-voting-stop-reform-im-not-convinced/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/11/19/the-first-cut-is-the-lightest/
Other (2026)
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/01/13/wipeout-in-wales-could-labour-get-0-seats-in-the-senedd/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/02/05/rage-against-the-machine-charting-the-rise-of-outsider-parties/
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/04/15/knives-out-will-labour-mps-remove-sir-keir-starmer/
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/05/06/noch-out-will-it-be-curtains-for-kemi/
Thanks!
Ladbrokes have Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill as SNP (1/2), but suggestions that Greens are winning here (such as MiC's MRP). Greens at 6/4 looks value.
As long as she is more popular than the party she leads it does make sense to hang onto her in case Reform supporters get fed up with Farage.
He ended up in court with a few cuts and bruises. As opposed to dead, or dead along with random bystanders.
Police being regularly unarmed (with guns) is something of which the UK should be proud.
However, Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Kemi's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
"Why?" asked Leon on the phone incredulously.
"Simple!" Kemi's underling replied. "You're not entitled to any..." He paused for effect. "...Statue-Tory Sick Pay!"
I thank you!
Relevant https://x.com/history99917180/status/2051972269463756934
@Steven_Swinford
Zack Polanski is the most unpopular he has been since becoming Green leader in the wake of his intervention over the Golders Green stabbings, a YouGov poll has found
Before that intervention - on 28-29 April - 39% of Britons held an unfavourable view of Polanski
That has now risen to 47% based on polling conducted on 4-5 May
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2052012588838293684
So if the Tories are not back in front of Reform by the time of the next general election, Cleverly could still be swapped for Kemi in order to squeeze Labour. LD and Green tactical votes for Tories in Tory held seats. Farage on -77% with Labour voters, -81% with LDs and -86% with Greens is still toxic for supporters of left and liberal voters and far more unpopular with them than Sir James, though less so relative to Kemi.
For the moment though as you say Kemi has a positive rating with Reform and Tory voters, +18% and +54% respectively, while Cleverly is on -21% with Reform voters
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_Favourability_260421.pdf
Let's hope that turns out not to be the case.
Buddhist sect welcomes humanoid robot Gabi with precept ceremony
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/society/20260506/buddhist-sect-welcomes-humanoid-robot-gabi-with-precept-ceremony
Under a roof of paper lanterns strung across Jogye Temple in downtown Seoul, a group of monks from the Jogye Order, Korea's largest Buddhist sect, sat across from a postulant awaiting a precept ceremony — except that postulant was the country's first humanoid robot to take part in the ritual.
Clad in humble black shoes and the Buddhist order's ceremonial gray and brown robe, the 1.3-meter-tall robot stood in front of Buddhist monks and nuns as it pledged to commit itself to Buddhism in the ceremony held Wednesday, ahead of Buddha's Birthday later this month.
The robot folded its hands together and bowed to the monks officiating the ceremony, as one of the monks carefully hung a 108-bead rosary and attached a sticker instead of the original ritual where one has to slightly burn his arms near an incense stick.
Will you devote yourself to the holy Buddha?" one of the monks asked.
"Yes, I will devote myself," the robot replied in an audible voice.
"Will you devote yourself to the holy teaching?" the monk asked.
"Yes, I will devote myself," the robot answered.
The monk then laid out five precepts, or common vows, for a Buddhist to live by that were altered for the robot.
They included respecting life and not hurting it, not damaging other robots and objects, following humans and not talking back to them, not behaving or speaking in a deceptive manner, and saving energy and not overcharging...
This isn't a case of someone on the ground, unarmed and defenceless, being beaten to a pulp by police.
Now, if they had kept beating him after he was disarmed, then we could have a discussion about this. And, certainly, the police shouldn't use more force than is necessary. But this doesn't seem to be one of those cases where the police have a case to answer: it was a volatile, mentally ill, armed man who needed to be disarmed and restrained before he could hurt others.
Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
Of them Britain has,
1/ The weakest economy.
2/ The lowest taxes.
3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".
https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963
As Professor R L Gregory pointed out, in his excellent books on the eye and the brain, much of what we perceive is heavily edited by the brain. This is often how optical illusions work.
In this case Zack wanted to see (subconsciously) police brutality. So his internal LLM did the job for him.
It’s probably punching down to insist he uses objective facts. That would traumatise him further.
You think UK has a Thatcherite economy ?
I support Kemi because she is the best the conservatives have and it is undeniable she has improved her ratings and is being noticed
As with all leaders, she has her faults but is refeshing and should be given the time to change the brand
As for Cleverly he had his chance and sabotaged it all by himself !!!!
Furthermore, he is yestedays news and if anyone is looking for successors to Kemi than one from Claire Coutinho, Laura Trott and Katie Lam are far more likely - the world has suffered from too many men in positions of power
Large countries try to bake in resilience. So, they'll have a plan for diversified energy generation, for example. Or they'll have a big army or navy to defend their interests overseas.
Small countries can't afford to do that.
The smaller countries, therefore, end up with greater volatility, but higher growth.
The greatest examples of all of this are places like Hong Kong. When the wind blows the wrong way, boy do they hurt. But over time it's the right strategy.
If the Tories are still trailing Reform by the next GE it would be former Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary with appeal to tactical anti Reform Labour and LD voters Sir James Tory MPs would turn to not any of those 3
Aside from anything else, it massively trivialises the word 'traumatised'.
"I was traumatised by seeing my comrades lying dead round me after the shell hit, their bodies still twitching" - seems the right sort of level. Or else "I was traumatised by years of abuse, never knowing what mood he was going to be in when I got home".
"I was traumatised by seeing something I think I saw on telly, but it turns out I just hallucinated something which met my political prejudices" is not an adequate use of the word.
Cleverly best chance is London mayor vote
"I was traumatised by seeing my comrades lying dead round me after the shell hit, their bodies still twitching" - seems the right sort of level. Or else "I was traumatised by years of abuse, never knowing what mood he was going to be in when I got home".
"I was traumatised by seeing something I think I saw on telly, but it turns out I just hallucinated something which met my political prejudices" is not an adequate use of the word.
ETA: quotes a bit broken, my response to Cookie below.
Completely agree. That and the 35k likes per minute on Bluesky suggests Polanski is a disappointing caricature of the very online left.
What's wrong with: 'It was a pretty uncomfortable watch that at first sight appeared to echo some of the heavy handed law enforcement tactics seen elsewhere. Having fully analysed the situation and considered the alternative actions the police and attacker may have taken, I am delighted he is still alive to face the consequences of his actions and the treatment he needs.'
https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Deltapoll-Conservative-leadership-241007.pdf
1) the stabber was on the ground and had been tasered
2) possibly the reason he did not let go of the knife was the taser meant his knife-holding muscles were in spasm
3) authorities were too quick to play up the antisemitism angle and ignored that he'd stabbed a Muslim man the same day
As well as the pro-police lines already mentioned, it has also been suggested the head-kicking coppers feared he had a suicide bomb.
I'm planning a server migration this weekend, which will hopefully solve the posting issue.
Now, in an ideal world, you probably kick the knife out of the attacker's hands. But this isn't an ideal world: it's a guy with a knife whose stabbed people, and you want to disarm him as soon as possible (while opening yourself up to as little risk as possible).
And a lot of things that were once tailwinds to growth -like falling birthrates and increased life expectancy- are now headwinds. And at the same time, we (as in the developed world) are no longer the only purchasers of raw materials; now we need to compete with China, India and a host of other rapidly developing nations. That means we're paying more for commodities at the same time that every worker is supporting more and more retirees.
If there were easy answers, then politicians would have already implemented them.
It's one of the things that makes the response by some to this incident so jarring. The police did exactly what people like me on the left have asked them to do - they found a non-lethal way to apprehend a dangerous person armed with a knife. They deserve our congratulations and gratitude.
Ted Turner - Mr CNN and Mr Jane Fonda, dead at 87.
RIP Ted, and god bless WCW and thank you.
A few examples which the data tell us should work:
- sorting out the distorted marginal tax rates and thresholds that inhibit labour market participation
- Tilting tax and monetary policy to encourage more consumer spending, business spending, investment in riskier but higher yielding assets and discourage saving in low yield assets
- Liberalisation of planning rules for infrastructure
- restructuring the energy market to allow regional pricing
- Providing fully state run (rather than subsidised) early years childcare for working parents
- Rejoining the single market
- Cutting corporation tax to 15%
And so on. Aggregation of marginal gains
Both list and seat
https://x.com/polliticsuk/status/2052027072923525295?s=61
Our borrowing costs need to be considered and Burnhams ‘fuck the Bond markets’ attitude doesn’t help.
Reform UK are battling to win the East of England, a traditional Conservative heartland, in the upcoming local elections.
The Telegraph's Political Editor, @Tony_Diver was given access to a day on the campaign trail with Robert Jenrick, travelling across Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex.
Can the former Conservative MP help turn one of the bluest areas in England teal?
What exactly is "raising kids in the British way"? I promise I am not being obtuse here but I didn't really understand what she meant. Are kids raised in the UK very different to kids raised in say Italy or Spain?
What's the situation with costs of running the site? I don't think we've had a whip around recently?