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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top y
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target
Survation private polling suggests the LDs "competitive" in Solihill CON target number 3
http://t.co/4JXAuHaYct pic.twitter.com/WOdNRrFFyc
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Tories in Cheltenham @ 7/4
Tories in Cheltenham @ 6/5
LD in Cardiff Central @ 11/4
Tories in Eastbourne @ 13/8
Tories in Cheadle @ 6/5
Labour in Bermondsey @ 7/4
Assuming Leeds NE should be Leeds NW, you can get 13/5 on Labour there.
There are only so many votes that don't matter that can be lost. Antifrank has done some excellent analysis against this. Once about a third of the country is down to almost zero the falls in the bastions begin.
The Lib dem vote in Solihull will fall by several thousand. It is possible, I suppose, with UKIP etc that the Tory vote could fall by a few thousand as well but the overwhelming probability is that Burt is gone for a burton.
The word “competitive is vague” – I’m told they meant it as within five points.
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I understand Survation will be releasing some figures later on today, so we shall be able to see for ourselves…
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9259
£50 Mid Dorset & North Poole @ 4-11 CON
£25 Somerton & Frome (Top up) @ 4-11 CON
is how I've played all this.
Where ?!
It perhaps raises an interesting question of who is going to come second.
Can anyon help me out ?
"We now have Labour as very narrow favourites to emerge as the largest party, with a 51% chance to the Tories’ 49%. But, just as every week since our new model launched in January, it’s basically 50-50.
The chances of a Hung Parliament are up again, to 86%, as David Cameron’s chances of securing a majority are down to 8% and Ed Miliband’s stay on 5%
It is very likely that Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP, the SDLP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens would have a majority of seats between them (our model gives an 82% chance of some combination of these having the required 323 seats). Whether Ed Miliband can convert that into a place in Number 10 remains to be seen, but our model suggests that’s more likely than David Cameron being able to remain.
Our central forecast is for the Tories to win 33.7% of the vote and 281 seats, and Labour to win fewer votes (31.4%) but one more seat (282). That combined vote share – 65.1% – for the two parties would be their lowest since 1918."
Reminds me of a line in Neil Young's Ambulance Blues. "You're all just p****ng in the wind".
FYI At the last GE, with the Lib Dems Cleggasm surge they managed to lose a net number of seats to the Conservatives.
The Survation poll is unlikely to have prompted for the Greens.
The Ofcom guidelines are clear. "Up to the same coverage as Labour and the Conservatives", not the same, up to. The broadcaster still has considerable leeway as to how they implement this.
Watford was a superb punt at 11-2, hat tip for that one. But you HAVE bet on single seats
@Casino Royale
Why would it damage the Tories? If they preannouce it, and it's publically popular, and then days later the Lib Dems and Labour vote it down then they'd be the ones risking damage. Particularly if Osborne manages the political presentation effectively - he can set an almighty trap.
The key word here is 'shoehorn' and the expiry on 5th April of the existing IHT threshold level. The Lib Dems will want something they can campaign on too, so expect a trade on higher property taxes for the living with cuts for the deceased
Have you forgotten the omnishambles budget already?
The keyword here is 'class'. If Labour can ensure that the Tories get virtually no C2, DE voters then you can forget a majority and probably kiss goodbye to largest party. Handing them the chance to bang on about the Tories and their 'millionaire's tax avoidance measures' is handing it to them on a plate.
The Libdems are using it as an example of how the Tories are unfair on tax on their website. If they want any credibility at all at this election they are not going to back down on it. If they did it would indicate they had learned nothing from the Tuition fees debacle.
Look I want to see IHT scrapped altogether but frankly if Tories want to invite a whole world of pain by trying to do something that has massive predictable class overtones to it before the election by all means go ahead. It will be reminiscent of the omnishambles budget furore all over again.
At this stage when all the economic markers seem to be going the Tories way I'd leave it alone. Put it back in the manifesto and leave it for next time. But hey knowing Tory strategic thinking it will likely be the first thing Osborne announces when he stands up.
PS And I don't think the 'Pay more now so you have less not to be taxed when your dead' idea (higher property taxes) will impress anyone who its intended to impress. Frankly it sounds as misguided as Brown abolishing the 10p Tax rate.
In Scotland and Wales SNP and PC have that status.
So far this week (inc. today's Sun YG and Populus) - LibDems on an ELBOW score of 8.3%, which, if sustained till Sunday, would be their highest weekly score since 24th August
And I can confirm that in Broxtowe five years ago Gordon Brown wasn't very well liked but Nick P was. It showed in the result. Will probably again.
It is much harder for the broadcaster to give the same ratio to two or three parties as it does to one party. The reality will be plain once the offical period begins. I suspect you will be quite upset at the outcome.
Remember , I did forecast that the Conservatives would gain this seat back in 2010 , I admit my error .
And that is all I am admitting to. Oh and the swing was several % better than the national one.
Far far better to do something at the bottom end e.g. a 10p tax rate or a cut in the basic rate. I also think introducing higher council tax bands at the top end is necessary because it is ridiculous and unfair to have someone in a £400K house pay the same council tax as someone in a £2 mio house.
If the Tories are going to do anything they have to do something which shows that the recovery and the economy are for the many not the few.
It just isn't going to happen. Burt just held on with an even smaller majority in 2010 than 2005 with the benefit of the Cleggasm.
The witless Lib Dems narrowly defeated Burt for deputy and instead elected the retiring Malcolm Bruce thereby removing a credibility enhancing opportunity for Burt.
With the Greens standing for the first time (it is not the first time for UKIP), I think I feel pretty much as certain as I do about Salmond winning Gordon, as I do of Burt's defeat.
Bear in mind that the Tories lost the seat in 2005 primarily because their MP was virtually of normal retirement age, and generally regarded as making little effort in the constituency. The Tories have chosen a younger and apparently more energetic candidate now.
I am amazed that 2/7 is still available on the Tories (I got 2/5 a good while back.
Anyway I thought we were meant to analyse the polling data, not rely on first hand-experience which can only give rise to - shudder - ANECDOTES!
Be interesting to see what happens in euroland today. One would imagine their favourite supper, fudge, will be served at the last minute.
I also believe that the referendum campaign was the most dishonest I have ever been involved in and that SNP economics does the impossible and make Labour look sane (well almost).
While Greece crashes and burns we are going to have 2 left wing parties competing to throw the most unfunded goodies at the electorate. They are both a disgrace but one believes in my country and one doesn't.
And if you do genuinely believe in the Union, then you must surely be aware that the only way it can possibly be saved from the position we are in today is via Full Fiscal Autonomy, nothing else can possibly prevent Independence and only an SNP landslide in May can achieve this.
"one believes in my country and one doesn't. "
The problem that you have is that a majority of people in Scotland believe that SCOTLAND is their country.
The Brit Nat side achieved their pyrrhic victory in the Referendum by persuading enough of that majority that the best interests of Scotland lay in supporting the Union, not that the United Kingdom was their country.
Even the GE2015 will be fought primarily on what is best for Scotland-even Ruth Davidson is reported on Reporting Scotland this lunch time (Tories Scotland conference) as criticising the bedroom tax (yes-she even called it the "bedroom tax")
FFA is obviously more complex in delivery given the easiest way to achieve it is very risky for the SNP. They might get away with a FFA for EVEL deal with the Tories because, effectively they would remove the Tories from Scottish decisions forever. However, it would work even better as a bargaining tool to get Labour to accept the inevitable.
Sounds to me like Clegg is on a knife edge even if he's named:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/19/lib-dem-polling-brings-hope-of-future-coalition-role
"Party officials are confident that Nick Clegg will retain his seat despite three polls showing he is behind. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA"
"Party officials are confident that Clegg will retain his seat in Sheffield Hallam despite three polls showing he is behind. They admit the seat has switched from being a Lib Dem/Tory fight to a contest against Labour, but are confident that the large Conservative vote in the seat can be squeezed by warning of the dangers of a Labour government with an overall majority."
I say this as a Clegg net backer.
A federal approach could work. But the Conservatives don't want to emasculate Westminster, and the left want to carve England into little political fiefdoms.
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The Liberal Democrats will be returned in May with increased majorities. Clegg and Alexander will not lose their seats, they are respected by the nation for their hard work and personal sacrifice in getting the economic recovery on track.
People instinctively trust the Lib Dems, and when they see the alternative of Labour / SNP / UKIP or Green, they will all flock back to Clegg and stand behind him.
By George !
That avatar looks familiar.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/19/lib-dem-polling-brings-hope-of-future-coalition-role
I could go on forever but I need to pick my kids up from the private school I had to pay to send them to to avoid the calamity that is Curriculum for Excellence.
So there is no problem with this outcome.
Scottish Unis seem to be doing ok...
Sure, the SNP's clear objective for now is to milk England for every penny they can. But if it leads to actual full and final independence I for one think they will rue the day.
http://imgur.com/1mvcnyR,PPabmw6,INKdpLv,JiuAn48,7ENOqkc,MNlXJ5X,HZtbXUV#1
No Nick Clegg and no bar chart