Looking over my patent formula, Ayr Carrick & Cumnock, Edinburgh North & Leith, Edinburgh West and Dunbartonshire East all look like seats where Labour might win seats from tactical voting by the Conservatives in their favour. Intriguingly, the latter two are both currently Lib Dem held, which may make it difficult for the would-be tactical Tory to work out who to back.
Well Ruthie is making "don't vote tactically" a central plank of her election strategy. I'm not sure how much traction that is going to have even if it were clearer who to actually vote tactically for.
On topic, to my mind the best chance the LibDems have of a significant up-tick before the election is if a near-final draft of the Chilcot Report gets leaked. Although at x thousand pages long, it is going to be a big difficult to leave that on a photocopier....
The LibDems will probably be the only party with any grounds to look remotely smug. Probably wouldn't do the Greens any harm either.
Both outcomes would do more harm to Labour. The convenience of which should worry Ed Miliband.
I think a potentially popular manifesto item for the Tories would to be make it illegal to discriminate against people within the UK on the basis of their nationality (Scot, English, Welsh, Ulsterman). This would destroy the indefensible anomaly whereby EU citizens and Scots can get free uni education in Scotland but the English can't.
No such thing as discrimination on nationality. It is based purely on residence, not birth, as has been discussed on PB very many times. And it was the English who changed the rules, not the Scots, who have simply continued to apply the pre-existing rules.
Mind you, if you accept that there is such a thing as Scottish nationality, I congratulate you on your remarkably progressive thinking. Where's my passport with the Saltire?
Edinburgh West could be the messiest seat in Scotland. I can see the winner taking less than 30%.
Who on earth do you back if you are a tactical Tory though - surely Crockhart as the incumbent... not Labour - how can you put an argument to back the chap who is 4% ahead of your own belief vote, and whose party has gone backwards 20% nationally... you probably end up voting Conservative in the end because you might believe they have a chance even though they don't.
Edinburgh West could be the messiest seat in Scotland. I can see the winner taking less than 30%.
Who on earth do you back if you are a tactical Tory though - surely Crockhart as the incumbent... not Labour - how can you put an argument to back the chap who is 4% ahead of your own belief vote, and whose party has gone backwards 20% nationally... you probably end up voting Conservative in the end because you might believe they have a chance even though they don't.
Well, I suppose it would depend if a poll is taken there - if a poll shows it's an SNP/Labour fight then that might make the tactical argument easier. But otherwise, yes, I could see tactical Tories splitting both ways which will blow the seat wide open.
Deutsche Bank produces a trade weighted Sterling exchange rate. I.e., how has our exchange rate changed against our trading partners over time. At the beginning of 1995, this stood at 86. In the 20 year period since, it has seen lows of around 80, and highs of around 120. It is just above its long-term average at 103.
Taking "cable", the US dollar exchange rate, and looking at the last 30 years, we see that a pound buys 50% more dollars than 30 years ago.
If sterling is "in long term terminal decline", nobody told the financial markets.
If this was a fight I would throw the white towel in on dair's behalf. :-)
Edinburgh West could be the messiest seat in Scotland. I can see the winner taking less than 30%.
Who on earth do you back if you are a tactical Tory though - surely Crockhart as the incumbent... not Labour - how can you put an argument to back the chap who is 4% ahead of your own belief vote, and whose party has gone backwards 20% nationally... you probably end up voting Conservative in the end because you might believe they have a chance even though they don't.
My (fairly dumb) model actually has the Tories coming second there. In fact it has the big 4 in reverse order from last time!
Ishmael FPT: "I've met a lot of blokes in the pub recently who voted labour last time round, but are just waking up to the fact that ed, is, actually, too crap to vote for. They tell me they are still saying "labour" to the pollsters, but increasingly realise that they just won't be voting that way. "
This must be the only pub in Britain where a lot of blokes routinely discuss how they respond to opinion polls. Perhaps PB should officially adopt it?
Also the only pub where the punters have been polled by pollsters (plural). Unless they have joined YouGov enmass.
As a wild, wild card on US GOP candidate I've stuck a few quid on Carly Fiorina. You can get on Betfair exchange at around 150/1. I think these odds could tumble if she starts a run. Former HP executive.
I don't think she'll go very far. She had a so-so senate race in 2010 when Barbara Boxer beat her 52/42 in California (for reference, Obama beat Romney 60/37 in California in 2012, but 2010 was the great GOP wave election, so Fiorina's accomplishment was not that impressive).
That said, at those odds, she is bound to shorten just by announcing.
Ishmael FPT: "I've met a lot of blokes in the pub recently who voted labour last time round, but are just waking up to the fact that ed, is, actually, too crap to vote for. They tell me they are still saying "labour" to the pollsters, but increasingly realise that they just won't be voting that way. "
This must be the only pub in Britain where a lot of blokes routinely discuss how they respond to opinion polls. Perhaps PB should officially adopt it?
Also the only pub where the punters have been polled by pollsters (plural). Unless they have joined YouGov enmass.
I was joking. That was meant to be the apotheosis of the pbtory anecdote.
Comments
The LibDems will probably be the only party with any grounds to look remotely smug. Probably wouldn't do the Greens any harm either.
Both outcomes would do more harm to Labour. The convenience of which should worry Ed Miliband.
Mind you, if you accept that there is such a thing as Scottish nationality, I congratulate you on your remarkably progressive thinking. Where's my passport with the Saltire?
The weakest of weak sauce from the Telegraph.
'Perhaps. Not even necessarily that they'll keep trying, but that they won't be humiliated by the result at least, is how I read the phrase generally'
Agree,they certainly aren't in a rush to publish any supporting data that they are 'competitive',
That said, at those odds, she is bound to shorten just by announcing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31554844
Maybe MI5 should spend less time campaigning for new powers and more time down at the airport seeing who gets on and off the planes.