As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Well, having opened all three for a wee tastie, I’d say that the Deanston is clearly the quality tipple, elegant, smooth, a little sweet on the taste with a nice warming gingery finish. For value, the Ard is more to my usual preference, more salty and peaty but not overly so - not medicinal like an Islay - think a slightly lighter, more subtle version of Talisker and the one I’d turn to if I’d just come back soaked after a walk with the dog in the rain. The US one is interesting, the single malt taste not what you’d expect from the states with all its Bourbons and Ryes - the latter my usual choice (although I’m not buying anything from the evil empire right now) - it’s bright and fresh with a rich taste and vanilla finish, but perhaps lacks the depth of the Scottish ones, being only five years after all.
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
I think the idea that the LDs are a political party has long faded. They're a glee club.
Still big in many places, but it's old timers for the most part - all the young people are going Green. So I do wonder if the Greens may start eating in to the shire counties - they've already got a couple of parliamentary seats in those areas.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
I went up to Skye last year, for the first time since my early 20s, and greatly enjoyed it, partly due to exceptional weather, but it is becoming over touristed with plenty of Koreans and the like driving about in their oversized hire cars. I fancy another Scottish trip next spring - being in the South I tend to neglect it as the continent is so easy. I hear good things of Mull?
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
The Future's Bright. The Future's Green
Green for me, but only for the locals. Chap’s more like the sort of Liberal I used to campaign for back in the 70’s.
Mind, the General Election will almost certainly be a different matter, should I live another three years.
These locals are going to be a 2019 Euros redux, aren’t they, with the Greens standing in for the LibDems? A remarkable result, with the so-called main parties both humiliated, but not necessarily much of a guide to where we will be in three years time?
Suspect the point about Gaza is not that it's a widely-shared voter concern, but that for a smallish but geographically-concentrated slice of the electorate, it's the issue.
The bigger question is this. How do politicians do anything about the first three issues without upsetting people for who the fourth one is key?
The political triumph of Reform is to convince a winning coalition of voters that there is so much waste and woke that it's possible to cut taxes and make people's surroundings better at the same time.
The political failure of Reform is that... there isn't really.
Whilst some of that isn't going to be easy, I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about Reform's opportunities to improve things. There is actually a reasonable amount of low hanging fruit which for various reasons government's of various colours have refused to fix.
At one extreme, the tax system and the £100k tax trap. It's really not going to be difficult to come up with a better system than the complete mess which we have at present.
At a different level, we're moving house at the moment. Why have I and my wife had to do (and pay for) three different ID checks (both Estate agents and my solicitors) at about £15 a pop? Fair enough to make the solicitors do it, but that should be sufficient. OK, it's only cost us £90, but multiply that up by the number of houses sold a year, and it's £50-£100mil a year wasted from the population's pockets every year. Trivial on one level, but also trivial to fix.
Take crime. 75% of the noticeable crime (burglaries, shop lifting, that sort of thing) in my small town is the product of half a dozen people. They should be locked up and the key thrown away, rather than doing odd bouts of six weeks inside here and there, plus the odd bit of community service. Three strikes and it's ten years inside would virtually solve low level crime. It would probably pay for itself quite quickly in reduced policing costs too.
£3mil got spent on the A road I use to get to work recently, because about 15 years ago there was a spate of motorcycle accidents (all of them idiots on motorbikes being idiots), and it briefly became categorised as dangerous, and that's how long it takes the bureaucracy to respond. It's currently categorised as so dangerous that it doesn't even qualify for yellow backs on the speed limit signs, however they've (completely unnecessarily) reduced the speed limit, covered everything in white paint and rumble strips and stuff up average speed cameras anyway. There should be a complete moratorium on these sorts of projects followed by a rigorous VFM evaluation before they are allowed to proceed - I can guarantee 95% of them will fail.
Don't even get me started on my local NHS trust, who (for instance) haven't yet discovered email, but insist on posting appointment notifications, even when there is no possibility of the notification arriving prior to the appointment. Also the complete wasted MRI slot I had where I informed them (as per their procedure) there was a risk I had metal splinters in my eyes prior to the day, and they somehow failed to have Xray provision available to check my eyes and my MRI had to be cancelled and the slot go unused.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Everywhere one looks, there are loads of easy wins. If Reform manage do 10% of them, they should make the UK a much better place.
Three strikes and 10 years imprisonment sounds good but you'd soon have a backlash and juries refusing to convict a shoplifter facing 10 years for pinching a bottle of water.
I have a trial in Aberdeen next week. Absolutely routine concerned in the supply of drugs. Lots of evidence. Not much value. But its in the High Court because s205B of the Criminal Procedure (S) Act said that a 3rd conviction for being concerned in the supply at indictment level has a minimum sentence of 5 years. So, we end up with a trial when we should have a plea. There is absolutely no incentive to plead because the Court cannot give a discount. And they won't give him any more given the value.
Minimum sentences have consequences. All too often in my experience not good ones.
I think you've got the opposite problem. The chap you're dealing with is classic low level scum class. He will be making people's lives a misery. He is persistent (hence he's up in front of the beak for the 3rd time for the same offence). The waste of your time is that he's going to only get 5 years, which means he'll be back making people's lives a misery in 2.5 years, and probably back in court shortly afterwards. He should be getting an actual 10 years behind bars. Not for his sake, but because if we actually want to reduce crime, you have to dispense with the scum class. And the only possible way to do that is unfortunately to keep there where they can't be scummy.
If you lock him up for 10years a go rather than 2.5, it will probably reduce his court appearances by 2/3rds over the time, so there's probably a financial saving in the courts system too, even if the actual trial costs a few bob.
Or we could be radical and rethink all this. Two issues: Firstly, we demonise suppliers (for whom I have no fondness) while soft pedalling on users when users are the ones who can stop all this from starting in the first place. No users = no suppliers, just as no handlers = many fewer thieves. We don't treat handlers as less culpable than thieves. The penalty for use should be substantially greater than that for supply but we dare not do it because it would seriously criminalise people who we don't think are criminal, many of whom went to the right sort of achool.
Secondly, decriminalise the lot. it's a medical and social issue. Like alcohol, being a NEET, sugar in fizzy drinks, benefits junkieism and being an idiot.
Hard to disagree that if we are serious about our drug problems we should be gong after the users as well as dealers. It is rather chicken and egg - if there were no users, there would be no dealers, if we succeeded in locking up all the dealers, there could be no users.
On a practical note, there are probably 100x the number of users there are dealers. Locking up virtually every dealer is a plausible (if difficult) task. Locking up every user is a non-starter, although I suspect casual usage would drop pretty substantially if getting nicked in possession of any amount meant an automatic 12 months in chokey, and the plod got keener on nicking people for possession.
I've also got quite a lot of sympathy for the "legalise and tax it" view. If you can't control it, you can at least prevent it being a major source of crime. I suspect the problem is that legalisation would reduce low level crime less than one might hope - in my experience, pond life is pond life, and the crims currently pushing drugs are unlikely to suddenly take up honest work instead.
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
I think the idea that the LDs are a political party has long faded. They're a glee club.
Still big in many places, but it's old timers for the most part - all the young people are going Green. So I do wonder if the Greens may start eating in to the shire counties - they've already got a couple of parliamentary seats in those areas.
The Greens are frothing nutters. The LDs once were the party of lemon tree growers and their vote was bolstered by the frothing nutters.
I don't think they can recover from being absent from politics for the last few years.
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
Presumably one signature was by the Shabana who protested on behalf of a free Palestine while the other is by the Home Secretary who is cracking down on those protesting on behalf of a free Palestine.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Well, having opened all three for a wee tastie, I’d say that the Deanston is clearly the quality tipple, elegant, smooth, a little sweet on the taste with a nice warming gingery finish. For value, the Ard is more to my usual preference, more salty and peaty but not overly so - not medicinal like an Islay - think a slightly lighter, more subtle version of Talisker and the one I’d turn to if I’d just come back soaked after a walk with the dog in the rain. The US one is interesting, the single malt taste not what you’d expect from the states with all its Bourbons and Ryes - the latter my usual choice (although I’m not buying anything from the evil empire right now) - it’s bright and fresh with a rich taste and vanilla finish, but perhaps lacks the depth of the Scottish ones, being only five years after all.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
Another day of pretty feeble progress. I got started early, but for the first time in ages, with no coffee in me. I’d have had to have started 45 minutes later to have one at the hotel
I think that did slow me down a bit, but I was still making good progress. Then hard it started to rain hard. The forecast had predicted a couple of short showers in the morning; it rained hard for three hours from ten until one
I was luckily near a little town at about half past ten. I was quite wet, even under my little umbrella, and decided to stop in a café. I stayed for two and a half hours, catching up on the missing caffeine
The forecast was also for a couple of “soaking showers” in the afternoon, so I decided not to push the walk too far. I walked just over fifteen miles, though a couple as a detour for provisions into the nearby town Vendays-Montelivet
I’m in staying at a beautiful farm in a really smart cabin, with a kitchen where I can grill some bread with a cheese I’ve never heard of before (Bethmale) and saucisson, or some big anchovies in oil
There are several little ponies in the meadow behind my place, but they wouldn’t stand in the right place when I took the picture
Another day of pretty feeble progress. I got started early, but for the first time in ages, with no coffee in me. I’d have had to have started 45 minutes later to have one at the hotel
I think that did slow me down a bit, but I was still making good progress. Then hard it started to rain hard. The forecast had predicted a couple of short showers in the morning; it rained hard for three hours from ten until one
I was luckily near a little town at about half past ten. I was quite wet, even under my little umbrella, and decided to stop in a café. I stayed for two and a half hours, catching up on the missing caffeine
The forecast was also for a couple of “soaking showers” in the afternoon, so I decided not to push the walk too far. I walked just over fifteen miles, though a couple as a detour for provisions into the nearby town Vendays-Montelivet
I’m in staying at a beautiful farm in a really smart cabin, with a kitchen where I can grill some bread with a cheese I’ve never heard of before (Bethmale) and saucisson, or some big anchovies in oil
There are several little ponies in the meadow behind my place, but they wouldn’t stand in the right place when I took the picture
I rather wonder if on your travels you have an undelivered parcel or two. Kept safely of course, but entirely baffling the recipients with the tracking.
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
I think the idea that the LDs are a political party has long faded. They're a glee club.
Still big in many places, but it's old timers for the most part - all the young people are going Green. So I do wonder if the Greens may start eating in to the shire counties - they've already got a couple of parliamentary seats in those areas.
The Greens are winning ex Labour and a few LD voters in big cities, the ex shire LD vote is largely ex Tory or centrist Remainer and would not go for Polanski's Greens. The seats they won there were pre Polanski
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
Juicy. But I can imagine it's just "writing your name" vs "signing". The first looks like the former, the second the latter.
It's a curious story, but I'm struggling to think of an explanation that reflects badly on Shabana. Presumably the accusation at the time was that the Labour election agent and others hoovered up a load of postal votes, got the ID forms filled in ligitimately, then filled in the voting forms themselves (I think there were also a load where the "voters" were unaware they had voted, but presumably the signatures on those at least matched each other) . That's obviously all very naughty, and IIRC several councillors got disqualified over it, but if anything it makes Shabana a victim, rather than a guilty party.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
I do think the 'failed to win a seat in parliament' thing is overplayed when judging Farage's success. No, Brexit is not entirely down to him but he has been a big part of the debate for a long time, he's come and gone as leader and remains with his supporters pretty popular despite being in the public eye for decades. Sure, he didn't win a seat during long periods when hsi party was not as popular as it is now, and that is very funny, but he has now managed it and is currently riding pretty high.
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
I had not noticed this one. New powers to enforce on pavement parking given to Councils in England under the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act , which was given Royal Assent last Wednesday.
I hope that will help resolve the "Police: Talk to the Council. Council: Talk to the Police" black hole that causes such problems at present.
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
Not a sign of insanity at all.
He should relax, he will indeed be remembered, sadly with great fondness by his supporters.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
I went up to Skye last year, for the first time since my early 20s, and greatly enjoyed it, partly due to exceptional weather, but it is becoming over touristed with plenty of Koreans and the like driving about in their oversized hire cars. I fancy another Scottish trip next spring - being in the South I tend to neglect it as the continent is so easy. I hear good things of Mull?
Mull is a good place for those who like islands, Scotland, fairly remote and ordinary for Scotland, neither empty nor overcrowded. We, over 30 years, have just got attached to it and spend a bit of time there most years. And I notice that our children also still like it and when we are there often some of them make the trip and bring the baby to introduce him/her to their old haunts. Not thrilling in the way Skye can be. We just feel a sense of belonging.
The ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish, which is a journey from nowhere to nowhere, is an interesting alternative route to get there. As is, for my son in law, the geese strewn grassy and bumpy landing strip for light aircraft. The baby's mother doesn't allow that route for the baby. No idea why not.
Another day of pretty feeble progress. I got started early, but for the first time in ages, with no coffee in me. I’d have had to have started 45 minutes later to have one at the hotel
I think that did slow me down a bit, but I was still making good progress. Then hard it started to rain hard. The forecast had predicted a couple of short showers in the morning; it rained hard for three hours from ten until one
I was luckily near a little town at about half past ten. I was quite wet, even under my little umbrella, and decided to stop in a café. I stayed for two and a half hours, catching up on the missing caffeine
The forecast was also for a couple of “soaking showers” in the afternoon, so I decided not to push the walk too far. I walked just over fifteen miles, though a couple as a detour for provisions into the nearby town Vendays-Montelivet
I’m in staying at a beautiful farm in a really smart cabin, with a kitchen where I can grill some bread with a cheese I’ve never heard of before (Bethmale) and saucisson, or some big anchovies in oil
There are several little ponies in the meadow behind my place, but they wouldn’t stand in the right place when I took the picture
Will be walking the other side of France (Marne) in a week or so. Any tips?
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
I do think the 'failed to win a seat in parliament' thing is overplayed when judging Farage's success. No, Brexit is not entirely down to him but he has been a big part of the debate for a long time, he's come and gone as leader and remains with his supporters pretty popular despite being in the public eye for decades. Sure, he didn't win a seat during long periods when hsi party was not as popular as it is now, and that is very funny, but he has now managed it and is currently riding pretty high.
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
I’m sure I just saw Priti Patel at Shenfield station.
Shenfield, Shenfield? I know that name.
i think that is where the Green Dragon is, where World in Action interviewed gammons in 1967 who were annoyed about Barbara Castle bring in the breathalyser.
Interesting - because legal judgements are using this in the U.K…
Not that I’m aware of at a CoA level or above anyway. Can you give me a citation, genuinely interested to read the case report, or just the name and I’ll find it
It's quite surreal how sanguine most of Europe is about this. We are at most a couple of months away from an energy shock that will strain the fabric of society, but politicians and the media are acting like it won't happen.
I've started stockpiling petrol. The legally permitted maximum of 30 litres that can be kept at home will fill the tank of my scooter five times over.
Also a good supply of canned food, because I expect the shelves to be stripped when people realise how bad things are going to get if the strait doesn't re-open in the near future.
The number of people being removed to countries accused of gaming the UK immigration system has plummeted, the Express can reveal*.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is under growing pressure to impose visa bans on countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Jamaica as returns to these countries dropped by as much as 88%.
And it comes as the number of people claiming asylum from some of these countries surged by a staggering 373%.
The number of removals to Pakistan fell from 5,198 in 2015 to 1,237 last year. This is the biggest drop of any country worldwide.
Returns to Bangladesh fell from 2,302 in 2015 to 312, removals to Jamaica plummeted from 524 to just 63 over the same decade and the number of people being booted out to Sri Lanka dropped from 1,162 to 277.
Critics have accused Labour of “padding out” their removal numbers with Albanians, Brazilians and the EU.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
I do think the 'failed to win a seat in parliament' thing is overplayed when judging Farage's success. No, Brexit is not entirely down to him but he has been a big part of the debate for a long time, he's come and gone as leader and remains with his supporters pretty popular despite being in the public eye for decades. Sure, he didn't win a seat during long periods when hsi party was not as popular as it is now, and that is very funny, but he has now managed it and is currently riding pretty high.
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
Looking on the other side of coin, how many people not selected by one of the "main parties" (inc the nationalists) have won an UK mainland parliamentary seat in the last 50 years? I've not checked, but you can probably count them on the fingers of one hand.
Like him or loathe him, to spin up a functional political party from scratch and get any representation in the commons by winning election (rather than deflection) is a very remarkable achievement. If (and it's hardly a done deal yet) he goes on to win a GE, regardless of what he does with the results, it will be difficult to dispute his crown as the most skilled political operator of at least the last 50 years.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
It's quite surreal how sanguine most of Europe is about this. We are at most a couple of months away from an energy shock that will strain the fabric of society, but politicians and the media are acting like it won't happen.
I've started stockpiling petrol. The legally permitted maximum of 30 litres that can be kept at home will fill the tank of my scooter five times over.
Also a good supply of canned food, because I expect the shelves to be stripped when people realise how bad things are going to get if the strait doesn't re-open in the near future.
It's making me think about The Death of Grass by John Christopher, where people were overly calm about an encroaching food crisis thinking it would never hit them, then the entire country descends into complete anarchy over the span of about 2 days when the scale of the catastrophe huts.
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
I think what I don't quite understand about this is in points 5 and 6 of the X thread.
5/ At the start of 2026, around 8.4 billion barrels of oil and oil products were in stock, comprising 6.6 billion barrels on land and 1.8 billion barrels afloat in ships. This consisted of approximately 5.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 3.2 billion barrels of refined products.
6/ However, only about 800 million barrels of this stockpile is usable without putting the system under operational stress. 280 million barrels had already been used by 23 April – a drawdown of 35%.
So, what 90% of the stock is unusable without putting the system under pressure? It goes on to say there are minimum levels to be kept in pipelines and tanks, OK, I can get that, but 90%, that makes very little sense to me. How can 'the system' need sooo much of what is supposedly stock?
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There was terrible polling for GOP for Kansas the other day!!!
Adam Hamilton -had he run as an Independent, and had the Dems stood aside- would have stood a good chance. (Polls had him leading Marshall by eight points in a head-to-head.)
As it is, I think Hamilton's decision to run as "an independent minded Democrat" probably dooms him. Still: should he get the Democratic nomination, I think he'll run Marshall rather closer than Trump's 16 point margin; probably a 6-8 point Republican victory.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
I don't think he will.
And, what's perhaps more important, I really don't want him to be PM.
I'm sure that enough people really don't want him to be PM that will ensure he won't be.
Another day of pretty feeble progress. I got started early, but for the first time in ages, with no coffee in me. I’d have had to have started 45 minutes later to have one at the hotel
I think that did slow me down a bit, but I was still making good progress. Then hard it started to rain hard. The forecast had predicted a couple of short showers in the morning; it rained hard for three hours from ten until one
I was luckily near a little town at about half past ten. I was quite wet, even under my little umbrella, and decided to stop in a café. I stayed for two and a half hours, catching up on the missing caffeine
The forecast was also for a couple of “soaking showers” in the afternoon, so I decided not to push the walk too far. I walked just over fifteen miles, though a couple as a detour for provisions into the nearby town Vendays-Montelivet
I’m in staying at a beautiful farm in a really smart cabin, with a kitchen where I can grill some bread with a cheese I’ve never heard of before (Bethmale) and saucisson, or some big anchovies in oil
There are several little ponies in the meadow behind my place, but they wouldn’t stand in the right place when I took the picture
Will be walking the other side of France (Marne) in a week or so. Any tips?
I doubt that my style of walking holiday offers many sensible walking holiday tips..
Smile and say bonjour to everyone you see in villages and little towns. Eat and drink the most local produce that you find
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
Churchill used to have a bottle of champers for breakfast, before starting drinking.
It's quite surreal how sanguine most of Europe is about this. We are at most a couple of months away from an energy shock that will strain the fabric of society, but politicians and the media are acting like it won't happen.
I've started stockpiling petrol. The legally permitted maximum of 30 litres that can be kept at home will fill the tank of my scooter five times over.
Also a good supply of canned food, because I expect the shelves to be stripped when people realise how bad things are going to get if the strait doesn't re-open in the near future.
I understand the panic but surely our leaders have a plan to escort the ships and respond in kind to any attempts by Iran to hold their blockade. If not they'll pay a very heavy price when their remaining supporters desert them. This is Europe's chance to show it's mettle. 😂
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There was terrible polling for GOP for Kansas the other day!!!
Adam Hamilton -had he run as an Independent, and had the Dems stood aside- would have stood a good chance. (Polls had him leading Marshall by eight points in a head-to-head.)
As it is, I think Hamilton's decision to run as "an independent minded Democrat" probably dooms him. Still: should he get the Democratic nomination, I think he'll run Marshall rather closer than Trump's 16 point margin; probably a 6-8 point Republican victory.
$6 a gallon petrol (and what $8 a gallon diesel?) will see some unlikely wins...
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
I think what I don't quite understand about this is in points 5 and 6 of the X thread.
5/ At the start of 2026, around 8.4 billion barrels of oil and oil products were in stock, comprising 6.6 billion barrels on land and 1.8 billion barrels afloat in ships. This consisted of approximately 5.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 3.2 billion barrels of refined products.
6/ However, only about 800 million barrels of this stockpile is usable without putting the system under operational stress. 280 million barrels had already been used by 23 April – a drawdown of 35%.
So, what 90% of the stock is unusable without putting the system under pressure? It goes on to say there are minimum levels to be kept in pipelines and tanks, OK, I can get that, but 90%, that makes very little sense to me. How can 'the system' need sooo much of what is supposedly stock?
There are two parallels. Just-in-time in manufacturing and food deliveries to supermarkets. With the latter, the worry during Covid was we were only two weeks away from starvation - and no toilet roll.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
While it was possible until very recently to draw parallels between the essentially 2 party FPTP systems in the US and U.K. I don’t think you can now. There are no challengers to the American duopoly. The British political system, however,is now a three or four party system in England, and more outside England. So the anti-Starmer vote will not necessarily be to Farage’s advantage. I give you BJO of this parish.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
Electorally unsuccessful, but politically consequential. His consequentiality might well be sinking Tory chances at the next GE and handing Labour (or some centre-left coalition) a second term, during which we change the electoral system and move toward rejoining the EU.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
@MaxPB thanks so much for your post last lauding the new game Pragmata.
I have really bonded with my 7-year old daughter over that game over the last week.
Beautiful.
Now you've got me interested. I shall check it out. Currently obsessed by Satisfactory, it perfectly suits the maths geek in me.
The previews for the new Bond game (First Light) have also been *really* good. If you're a fan of the Hitman games, and I am, it looks like a great combination of them and some third person shooter action.
Interesting - because legal judgements are using this in the U.K…
Not that I’m aware of at a CoA level or above anyway. Can you give me a citation, genuinely interested to read the case report, or just the name and I’ll find it
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There was terrible polling for GOP for Kansas the other day!!!
Adam Hamilton -had he run as an Independent, and had the Dems stood aside- would have stood a good chance. (Polls had him leading Marshall by eight points in a head-to-head.)
As it is, I think Hamilton's decision to run as "an independent minded Democrat" probably dooms him. Still: should he get the Democratic nomination, I think he'll run Marshall rather closer than Trump's 16 point margin; probably a 6-8 point Republican victory.
$6 a gallon petrol (and what $8 a gallon diesel?) will see some unlikely wins...
Gas prices in Kansas are currently about $4 (with diesel at $5)... which doesn't seem that much but it's up about 50% on a year ago, and $5 or $6 gas is by no means impossible.
And, yes, in that scenario, it's perfectly possible for there to be some wild results.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
I don't think he will.
And, what's perhaps more important, I really don't want him to be PM.
I'm sure that enough people really don't want him to be PM that will ensure he won't be.
I'm with you. Tactical voting on FPTP will kill Reform even if they win a plurality of votes. I would vote SNP to stop Reform from winning in my constituency. They are that bad.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
I do think the 'failed to win a seat in parliament' thing is overplayed when judging Farage's success. No, Brexit is not entirely down to him but he has been a big part of the debate for a long time, he's come and gone as leader and remains with his supporters pretty popular despite being in the public eye for decades. Sure, he didn't win a seat during long periods when hsi party was not as popular as it is now, and that is very funny, but he has now managed it and is currently riding pretty high.
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
Looking on the other side of coin, how many people not selected by one of the "main parties" (inc the nationalists) have won an UK mainland parliamentary seat in the last 50 years? I've not checked, but you can probably count them on the fingers of one hand.
Like him or loathe him, to spin up a functional political party from scratch and get any representation in the commons by winning election (rather than deflection) is a very remarkable achievement. If (and it's hardly a done deal yet) he goes on to win a GE, regardless of what he does with the results, it will be difficult to dispute his crown as the most skilled political operator of at least the last 50 years.
I think there were more than 5 independents elected last GE alone.
I think that we can only regard someone as the most skillex political operator of the last 50 years if they win more than one GE. So the bar is Cameron on 2, both Blair and Thatcher on 3.
If Farage becomes PM, I think he would emulate my football team wth serial relegations following an unusual triumph.
Interesting - because legal judgements are using this in the U.K…
Not that I’m aware of at a CoA level or above anyway. Can you give me a citation, genuinely interested to read the case report, or just the name and I’ll find it
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
Juicy. But I can imagine it's just "writing your name" vs "signing". The first looks like the former, the second the latter.
Signatures don't match all the time*. Partly that's because as humans we aren't that consistent - there's a natural drift over time, and we're also influenced by the size and shape of the box we're writing in. If it's a small box, my signature will be more like RSmithson (illegible, of course). If it's a wide one, it'll be different.
And, as you say, this more likely that the first she was writing her name so it was readable.
* Which is why, of course, a lot of the vote rigging stuff was bollocks in the US. The question is do signatures vary any more than on -say- cheques?
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
'Both of my sons vote Reform,' she interjects, 'but they do it for a joke. They think that Farage is hilarious.'
I was asked to sign something in person for the first time in years the other day. I have genuinely forgotten how I signed stuff in the past.
I can barely hold a pen these days. Really. If I have to do anything more than a signature and maybe my number and email - checking in to hotels, say - I genuinely toil. It feels unnatural, and I scrawl laboriously. Writing several pages would now be agony, and I wonder if I could do it
We are losing the skill of handwriting, as a species
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
I went up to Skye last year, for the first time since my early 20s, and greatly enjoyed it, partly due to exceptional weather, but it is becoming over touristed with plenty of Koreans and the like driving about in their oversized hire cars. I fancy another Scottish trip next spring - being in the South I tend to neglect it as the continent is so easy. I hear good things of Mull?
Mull is a good place for those who like islands, Scotland, fairly remote and ordinary for Scotland, neither empty nor overcrowded. We, over 30 years, have just got attached to it and spend a bit of time there most years. And I notice that our children also still like it and when we are there often some of them make the trip and bring the baby to introduce him/her to their old haunts. Not thrilling in the way Skye can be. We just feel a sense of belonging.
The ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish, which is a journey from nowhere to nowhere, is an interesting alternative route to get there. As is, for my son in law, the geese strewn grassy and bumpy landing strip for light aircraft. The baby's mother doesn't allow that route for the baby. No idea why not.
Lochaline to Fishnish is a joy which I have done many times (some glorious scenery on the run up - and sweeping roads you can do some unwise speeds if so inclined; not in winter though!).
I will tell anyone who will listen that in my extensive travels around this planet, Mull is the most perfect mix of sea, sky and mountain vistas. There is a place overlooking Inch Kenneth (linked to the Mitford sisters) that has a spectacular view through 360 degrees. I don't know anywhere better (possibly excepting the high Himalayas in northern Pakistan).
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
I think what I don't quite understand about this is in points 5 and 6 of the X thread.
5/ At the start of 2026, around 8.4 billion barrels of oil and oil products were in stock, comprising 6.6 billion barrels on land and 1.8 billion barrels afloat in ships. This consisted of approximately 5.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 3.2 billion barrels of refined products.
6/ However, only about 800 million barrels of this stockpile is usable without putting the system under operational stress. 280 million barrels had already been used by 23 April – a drawdown of 35%.
So, what 90% of the stock is unusable without putting the system under pressure? It goes on to say there are minimum levels to be kept in pipelines and tanks, OK, I can get that, but 90%, that makes very little sense to me. How can 'the system' need sooo much of what is supposedly stock?
The issue is that most "stocks" are in transit in one way or another: in ships, in pipelines, in barrels, or in tanks at refineries. They can't just be drawndown.
For what it's worth, I think we should remember that the price mechanism is going to do a fair amount of the heavy lifting here. We're lucky this is happening as we move into summer, and people are simply going to drive and fly less. Now, sure, this will also cause some distress as a greater proportion of peoples' disposible income is spent on fuel rather than on -say- coffee.
We should also remember that the Gulf States will be working really hard to get pipelines out that bypass the Straits. (And that includes Iran, who has a pipeline and a port beyond them.)
It's going to be nasty, sure, but I'm actually much more worried about the impact on electricity prices in places where natural gas is the marginal power source.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
I think he will be PM.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
Churchill used to have a bottle of champers for breakfast, before starting drinking.
Not that Farage is a Churchill for our times.
That's wrong
Churchill started the day with a small tumbler of scotch, diluted with water. He called it his "mouthwash"
The champagne came later. Famously, he would have a pint bottle of Pol Roger, at lunch
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
I went up to Skye last year, for the first time since my early 20s, and greatly enjoyed it, partly due to exceptional weather, but it is becoming over touristed with plenty of Koreans and the like driving about in their oversized hire cars. I fancy another Scottish trip next spring - being in the South I tend to neglect it as the continent is so easy. I hear good things of Mull?
Mull is a good place for those who like islands, Scotland, fairly remote and ordinary for Scotland, neither empty nor overcrowded. We, over 30 years, have just got attached to it and spend a bit of time there most years. And I notice that our children also still like it and when we are there often some of them make the trip and bring the baby to introduce him/her to their old haunts. Not thrilling in the way Skye can be. We just feel a sense of belonging.
The ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish, which is a journey from nowhere to nowhere, is an interesting alternative route to get there. As is, for my son in law, the geese strewn grassy and bumpy landing strip for light aircraft. The baby's mother doesn't allow that route for the baby. No idea why not.
Lochaline to Fishnish is a joy which I have done many times (some glorious scenery on the run up - and sweeping roads you can do some unwise speeds if so inclined; not in winter though!).
I will tell anyone who will listen that in my extensive travels around this planet, Mull is the most perfect mix of sea, sky and mountain vistas. There is a place overlooking Inch Kenneth (linked to the Mitford sisters) that has a spectacular view through 360 degrees. I don't know anywhere better (possibly excepting the high Himalayas in northern Pakistan).
I knew someone that lived on Mull but commuted to Edinburgh. He could work from home sometime but spent days in Edinburgh every week. Hell of a journey.
The number of people being removed to countries accused of gaming the UK immigration system has plummeted, the Express can reveal*.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is under growing pressure to impose visa bans on countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Jamaica as returns to these countries dropped by as much as 88%.
And it comes as the number of people claiming asylum from some of these countries surged by a staggering 373%.
The number of removals to Pakistan fell from 5,198 in 2015 to 1,237 last year. This is the biggest drop of any country worldwide.
Returns to Bangladesh fell from 2,302 in 2015 to 312, removals to Jamaica plummeted from 524 to just 63 over the same decade and the number of people being booted out to Sri Lanka dropped from 1,162 to 277.
Critics have accused Labour of “padding out” their removal numbers with Albanians, Brazilians and the EU.
* they are doing a lot of heavy lifting given these figures are publicly available. Even removing 5000 here, 2000 there, is just a drop in the bucket.
Surely in any given year there are going to be countries where removals are up and those where they're down? You can always paint a picture that things are a disaster by pointing solely at those countries where removals are down.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national electiin, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked, Cameron was obliged to call the vote. He showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I cam think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party; Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
What makes a successful politician? Many years ago I was told by a London Labour agent that I was the best politician he had ever known. Why? Because I was the first Liberal to win elected office in Woolwich since the 1st World War. But despite serving for12 years there was no clear evidence of my effect in a one party environment. But since retirement I also have another 12 years of service and I can look round my village and see physical evidence of my achievement.
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
There's an excellent article in The Atlantic, about how Trump is completely obsessed with his legacy (destruction of Iran, triumphal arches, the ballroom, his name on parks and buildings), and is disinterested in the fate of the Republican Party.
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
I do think the 'failed to win a seat in parliament' thing is overplayed when judging Farage's success. No, Brexit is not entirely down to him but he has been a big part of the debate for a long time, he's come and gone as leader and remains with his supporters pretty popular despite being in the public eye for decades. Sure, he didn't win a seat during long periods when hsi party was not as popular as it is now, and that is very funny, but he has now managed it and is currently riding pretty high.
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
Looking on the other side of coin, how many people not selected by one of the "main parties" (inc the nationalists) have won an UK mainland parliamentary seat in the last 50 years? I've not checked, but you can probably count them on the fingers of one hand.
Like him or loathe him, to spin up a functional political party from scratch and get any representation in the commons by winning election (rather than deflection) is a very remarkable achievement. If (and it's hardly a done deal yet) he goes on to win a GE, regardless of what he does with the results, it will be difficult to dispute his crown as the most skilled political operator of at least the last 50 years.
I think there were more than 5 independents elected last GE alone.
I think that we can only regard someone as the most skillex political operator of the last 50 years if they win more than one GE. So the bar is Cameron on 2, both Blair and Thatcher on 3.
If Farage becomes PM, I think he would emulate my football team wth serial relegations following an unusual triumph.
If Cameron had managed to avoid the EU Referendum he would still be Prime Minister on four wins.
EXCLUSIVE: 'Keir Starmer is UK's best leader and can win next election for Labour'
Anna Turley MP issued a rally cry in the face of difficult polling ahead of the May elections next week, pointing out Tony Blair lost around 1,150 councillors in 1999.
EXCLUSIVE: 'Keir Starmer is UK's best leader and can win next election for Labour'
Anna Turley MP issued a rally cry in the face of difficult polling ahead of the May elections next week, pointing out Tony Blair lost around 1,150 councillors in 1999.
The number of people being removed to countries accused of gaming the UK immigration system has plummeted, the Express can reveal*.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is under growing pressure to impose visa bans on countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Jamaica as returns to these countries dropped by as much as 88%.
And it comes as the number of people claiming asylum from some of these countries surged by a staggering 373%.
The number of removals to Pakistan fell from 5,198 in 2015 to 1,237 last year. This is the biggest drop of any country worldwide.
Returns to Bangladesh fell from 2,302 in 2015 to 312, removals to Jamaica plummeted from 524 to just 63 over the same decade and the number of people being booted out to Sri Lanka dropped from 1,162 to 277.
Critics have accused Labour of “padding out” their removal numbers with Albanians, Brazilians and the EU.
* they are doing a lot of heavy lifting given these figures are publicly available. Even removing 5000 here, 2000 there, is just a drop in the bucket.
Surely in any given year there are going to be countries where removals are up and those where they're down? You can always paint a picture that things are a disaster by pointing solely at those countries where removals are down.
No this is a trend. The Albanian increase is because of the deal the Tories did, Labour focused on a significant number of Brazilians playing the system with fake Portuguese documents. But there are certain countries the UK is very poor at deporting people to and got worse, basically given up.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
"He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament"
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If ever there was a more pointless exercise in "democracy" it was that "a free kick of Bishop Brennan up the arse" election.
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
Juicy. But I can imagine it's just "writing your name" vs "signing". The first looks like the former, the second the latter.
Signatures don't match all the time*. Partly that's because as humans we aren't that consistent - there's a natural drift over time, and we're also influenced by the size and shape of the box we're writing in. If it's a small box, my signature will be more like RSmithson (illegible, of course). If it's a wide one, it'll be different.
And, as you say, this more likely that the first she was writing her name so it was readable.
* Which is why, of course, a lot of the vote rigging stuff was bollocks in the US. The question is do signatures vary any more than on -say- cheques?
I forget where I read it, but Terry Pratchett once wrote about his signature that it was simplifying over time, and he expected to end up as a straight line. He did a lot of book signings - I went to one as a teenager and remember he was very friendly to everyone.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national electiin, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked, Cameron was obliged to call the vote. He showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I cam think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party; Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
What makes a successful politician? Many years ago I was told by a London Labour agent that I was the best politician he had ever known. Why? Because I was the first Liberal to win elected office in Woolwich since the 1st World War. But despite serving for12 years there was no clear evidence of my effect in a one party environment. But since retirement I also have another 12 years of service and I can look round my village and see physical evidence of my achievement.
It's a good question. I'd say political success comes in two main forms, there are politicians who are good at winning elections, votes, and minds, and changing things that way, and there are politicians who are good at governance, who enact change through skilfull use of power. Truly great politicians - Thatcher, say? - achieve both
We know Farage is very good at the first kind of success. So he is a very good politician in that one sense. We have no idea what he might be like in office, governing, because he's never had the chance. He might well be shite. Or not
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
Juicy. But I can imagine it's just "writing your name" vs "signing". The first looks like the former, the second the latter.
Signatures don't match all the time*. Partly that's because as humans we aren't that consistent - there's a natural drift over time, and we're also influenced by the size and shape of the box we're writing in. If it's a small box, my signature will be more like RSmithson (illegible, of course). If it's a wide one, it'll be different.
And, as you say, this more likely that the first she was writing her name so it was readable.
* Which is why, of course, a lot of the vote rigging stuff was bollocks in the US. The question is do signatures vary any more than on -say- cheques?
I forget where I read it, but Terry Pratchett once wrote about his signature that it was simplifying over time, and he expected to end up as a straight line. He did a lot of book signings - I went to one as a teenager and remember he was very friendly to everyone.
Mine has deteriorated from untidy to a squiggle over the last 10 years or so. I still use it quite a lot on legal documents and it is not what it was. The Home Secretary's signatures, however, is weird.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
I went up to Skye last year, for the first time since my early 20s, and greatly enjoyed it, partly due to exceptional weather, but it is becoming over touristed with plenty of Koreans and the like driving about in their oversized hire cars. I fancy another Scottish trip next spring - being in the South I tend to neglect it as the continent is so easy. I hear good things of Mull?
Mull is a good place for those who like islands, Scotland, fairly remote and ordinary for Scotland, neither empty nor overcrowded. We, over 30 years, have just got attached to it and spend a bit of time there most years. And I notice that our children also still like it and when we are there often some of them make the trip and bring the baby to introduce him/her to their old haunts. Not thrilling in the way Skye can be. We just feel a sense of belonging.
The ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish, which is a journey from nowhere to nowhere, is an interesting alternative route to get there. As is, for my son in law, the geese strewn grassy and bumpy landing strip for light aircraft. The baby's mother doesn't allow that route for the baby. No idea why not.
Lochaline to Fishnish is a joy which I have done many times (some glorious scenery on the run up - and sweeping roads you can do some unwise speeds if so inclined; not in winter though!).
I will tell anyone who will listen that in my extensive travels around this planet, Mull is the most perfect mix of sea, sky and mountain vistas. There is a place overlooking Inch Kenneth (linked to the Mitford sisters) that has a spectacular view through 360 degrees. I don't know anywhere better (possibly excepting the high Himalayas in northern Pakistan).
I knew someone that lived on Mull but commuted to Edinburgh. He could work from home sometime but spent days in Edinburgh every week. Hell of a journey.
He must have loved Covid!
Don't think I could live there. The winters would be brutal. But the rest of the year? Magnificent. Been badly sunburnt on Mull in April.
White-tailed eagles, otters, weird moths, corncrakes wandering around Iona - a joy.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
"He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament"
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If ever there was a more pointless exercise in "democracy" it was that "a free kick of Bishop Brennan up the arse" election.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand???
Winning that EU election terrified the Tories into promising a referendum on EU membership, if they won the subsequent UK general election. The Tories won the UK election. So Cameron had to call the referendum which Farage had forced. Et voila
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
"He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament"
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If ever there was a more pointless exercise in "democracy" it was that "a free kick of Bishop Brennan up the arse" election.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand???
Winning that EU election terrified the Tories into promising a referendum on EU membership, if they won the subsequent UK general election. The Tories won the UK election. So Cameron had to call the referendum which Farage had forced. Et voila
Bugger off did it.
For one thing, it was under Theresa May. You know, the PM who took over AFTER Cameron had resigned because of the Referendum.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand timelines? Muppet.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
"He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament"
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If ever there was a more pointless exercise in "democracy" it was that "a free kick of Bishop Brennan up the arse" election.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand???
Winning that EU election terrified the Tories into promising a referendum on EU membership, if they won the subsequent UK general election. The Tories won the UK election. So Cameron had to call the referendum which Farage had forced. Et voila
Bugger off did it.
For one thing, it was under Theresa May. You know, the PM who took over AFTER Cameron had resigned because of the Referendum.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand timelines? Muppet.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national electiin, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked, Cameron was obliged to call the vote. He showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I cam think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party; Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
What makes a successful politician? Many years ago I was told by a London Labour agent that I was the best politician he had ever known. Why? Because I was the first Liberal to win elected office in Woolwich since the 1st World War. But despite serving for12 years there was no clear evidence of my effect in a one party environment. But since retirement I also have another 12 years of service and I can look round my village and see physical evidence of my achievement.
It's a good question. I'd say political success comes in two main forms, there are politicians who are good at winning elections, votes, and minds, and changing things that way, and there are politicians who are good at governance, who enact change through skilfull use of power. Truly great politicians - Thatcher, say? - achieve both
We know Farage is very good at the first kind of success. So he is a very good politician in that one sense. We have no idea what he might be like in office, governing, because he's never had the chance. He might well be shite. Or not
Just to add to this: Obama is a great example of the successful politician of the first type. A brilliantly charismatic campaigner, coming from nowhere to win the Democratic nomination and then the presidency. Superb oratory, inspirising presence. And yet in office? A sad disappointment. Not great at the governing bit
The number of people being removed to countries accused of gaming the UK immigration system has plummeted, the Express can reveal*.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is under growing pressure to impose visa bans on countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Jamaica as returns to these countries dropped by as much as 88%.
And it comes as the number of people claiming asylum from some of these countries surged by a staggering 373%.
The number of removals to Pakistan fell from 5,198 in 2015 to 1,237 last year. This is the biggest drop of any country worldwide.
Returns to Bangladesh fell from 2,302 in 2015 to 312, removals to Jamaica plummeted from 524 to just 63 over the same decade and the number of people being booted out to Sri Lanka dropped from 1,162 to 277.
Critics have accused Labour of “padding out” their removal numbers with Albanians, Brazilians and the EU.
* they are doing a lot of heavy lifting given these figures are publicly available. Even removing 5000 here, 2000 there, is just a drop in the bucket.
Surely in any given year there are going to be countries where removals are up and those where they're down? You can always paint a picture that things are a disaster by pointing solely at those countries where removals are down.
No this is a trend. The Albanian increase is because of the deal the Tories did, Labour focused on a significant number of Brazilians playing the system with fake Portuguese documents. But there are certain countries the UK is very poor at deporting people to and got worse, basically given up.
Sure, but at the same time, you need to look at both sides of the equation.
I.e., both the number arriving and claiming asylum, and the numbers being returned.
Let's take Bangladesh. In 2016 there were 2,256 asylum applications. That then dropped to 1,712 in 2017, to 1,294 in 2018, and then was below 1,000 in each of the years between 2019 and 2021. It then shot up in 2022 and 2023, reaching 5,017 in 2023.
By contrast, Albalian asylum applications defied Covid, and shot up about 15x between 2018 and 2021, reaching 4,400 in that year.
If you assume a three to four year gap between claiming and returning, then it's not very surprising that we only saw a relatively small number of people being returned to Bangladesh, because a lot of this is from years when there simply weren't many asylum applications.
The question, really, is whether those numbers start to move up sharply in 2026 and 2027 as you start coming on the the three year mark on lots odf people arriving. I would hope that they do, but we shall see.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I hate to burst this specific bubble but can you remind me how long it took him to win a seat in Parliament and the number of attempts? His vehicle wasn’t even the official Leave campaign. That “win” belongs to Johnson. He’s lost far more than he’s won.
This is quite alarmingly stupid
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
I’ll not rise to the pathetic last sentence but, again, you've written a masterclass in self-contradiction. You spend four paragraphs accusing others of letting emotion cloud judgment, then close by calling someone a "dullard", which is, itself, pure emotion clouding your judgment. The irony is so thick it matches your intelligence
Now, the substance. You're conflating political disruption with political success, and they aren't the same thing. By your logic, the man who throws a grenade into a crowded room is the most effective person there. Leave has left the UK poorer, less influential, and still bitterly divided, by your logic a wound he opened and then retreated to GB News while others managed the wreckage.
You note he "let the poshos do the high-minded stuff" while he handled the "grubbier immigration angle." You intend this as tactical praise. Others might call it a deliberate choice to inflame rather than inform.
Reform leading the polls is also a rather different achievement in a first-past-the-post system, as the 2024 results demonstrated. four million votes, five seats. Farage has been genuinely, remarkably effective at acquiring attention and applying pressure. That's real. But a politician who has never held a cabinet position, never passed legislation, and whose greatest legacy remains deeply contested isn't obviously the century's greatest success, he may simply be its greatest agitator.
Those are meaningfully different things, and distinguishing between them isn't emotional. It's the judgment you're asking others to exercise.
I may be a dullard but fuck knows what that makes you.
Comments
On a practical note, there are probably 100x the number of users there are dealers. Locking up virtually every dealer is a plausible (if difficult) task. Locking up every user is a non-starter, although I suspect casual usage would drop pretty substantially if getting nicked in possession of any amount meant an automatic 12 months in chokey, and the plod got keener on nicking people for possession.
I've also got quite a lot of sympathy for the "legalise and tax it" view. If you can't control it, you can at least prevent it being a major source of crime. I suspect the problem is that legalisation would reduce low level crime less than one might hope - in my experience, pond life is pond life, and the crims currently pushing drugs are unlikely to suddenly take up honest work instead.
I have really bonded with my 7-year old daughter over that game over the last week.
Beautiful.
I don't think they can recover from being absent from politics for the last few years.
I think that did slow me down a bit, but I was still making good progress. Then hard it started to rain hard. The forecast had predicted a couple of short showers in the morning; it rained hard for three hours from ten until one
I was luckily near a little town at about half past ten. I was quite wet, even under my little umbrella, and decided to stop in a café. I stayed for two and a half hours, catching up on the missing caffeine
The forecast was also for a couple of “soaking showers” in the afternoon, so I decided not to push the walk too far. I walked just over fifteen miles, though a couple as a detour for provisions into the nearby town Vendays-Montelivet
I’m in staying at a beautiful farm in a really smart cabin, with a kitchen where I can grill some bread with a cheese I’ve never heard of before (Bethmale) and saucisson, or some big anchovies in oil
There are several little ponies in the meadow behind my place, but they wouldn’t stand in the right place when I took the picture
Interesting - because legal judgements are using this in the U.K…
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/04/donald-trump-legacy-history/686817/
And though Trump has long compared himself to America’s two greatest presidents, we were recently told by two people who are in a position to know such things—a senior administration official and a longtime Trump confidant—that the president had, in private conversations, begun thinking about himself less as a peer of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and more as an addition to Hegel’s immortal trifecta.
“He’s been talking recently about how he is the most powerful person to ever live,” the confidant told us. “He wants to be remembered as the one who did things that other people couldn’t do, because of his sheer power and force of will.”
I'm no fan of his, but it seems both churlish and mistaken to deny his impact on British politics over the last 20 years.
This is lily-livered Keir, AGAIN. I rate this as one cheer.
I've seen presentations about Edinburgh, and there seem to be remarkably few problems.
He should relax, he will indeed be remembered, sadly with great fondness by his supporters.
The ferry from Lochaline to Fishnish, which is a journey from nowhere to nowhere, is an interesting alternative route to get there. As is, for my son in law, the geese strewn grassy and bumpy landing strip for light aircraft. The baby's mother doesn't allow that route for the baby. No idea why not.
Labour have no strength in depth. Only the Greens, Reform and the SNP are worse off.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2050614172497379711?s=20
i think that is where the Green Dragon is, where World in Action interviewed gammons in 1967 who were annoyed about Barbara Castle bring in the breathalyser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_tqQYmgMQg
I've started stockpiling petrol. The legally permitted maximum of 30 litres that can be kept at home will fill the tank of my scooter five times over.
Also a good supply of canned food, because I expect the shelves to be stripped when people realise how bad things are going to get if the strait doesn't re-open in the near future.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is under growing pressure to impose visa bans on countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Jamaica as returns to these countries dropped by as much as 88%.
And it comes as the number of people claiming asylum from some of these countries surged by a staggering 373%.
The number of removals to Pakistan fell from 5,198 in 2015 to 1,237 last year. This is the biggest drop of any country worldwide.
Returns to Bangladesh fell from 2,302 in 2015 to 312, removals to Jamaica plummeted from 524 to just 63 over the same decade and the number of people being booted out to Sri Lanka dropped from 1,162 to 277.
Critics have accused Labour of “padding out” their removal numbers with Albanians, Brazilians and the EU.
https://x.com/Express_Knowles/status/2050611359415513108?s=20
* they are doing a lot of heavy lifting given these figures are publicly available. Even removing 5000 here, 2000 there, is just a drop in the bucket.
Like him or loathe him, to spin up a functional political party from scratch and get any representation in the commons by winning election (rather than deflection) is a very remarkable achievement. If (and it's hardly a done deal yet) he goes on to win a GE, regardless of what he does with the results, it will be difficult to dispute his crown as the most skilled political operator of at least the last 50 years.
There's a great article by Nate Silver looking at why modern politicians become so unpopular so quickly. In it, he points out that a large part of Donald Trump's coalition was "not Harris". And the problem is that it's very hard to remain popular with the group who voted with you solely because you weren't someone else.
At the same time, politicians get enormous majorities (which they see as mandates) based on being "not [x]". Trump got it in the US, and Starmer got it in the UK.
This leads to hubris, which is an unfortunate thing to mix with support that is rather less deep than you think it is.
Farage will likely be PM in 2028 or 2029.
He will probably achieve this on 35% of the vote. He will be elected alongside a whole host of characters, many of whom have little experience.
He may be a Meloni, and grasp the nettle, and be a competent administrator.
He may also be someone whose flaws -whether laziness, love of alcohol, or inability to work with others- are quickly exposed by time in office.
If I had to choose the more likely scenario, it would be the second.
But we shall see.
5/ At the start of 2026, around 8.4 billion barrels of oil and oil products were in stock, comprising 6.6 billion barrels on land and 1.8 billion barrels afloat in ships. This consisted of approximately 5.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 3.2 billion barrels of refined products.
6/ However, only about 800 million barrels of this stockpile is usable without putting the system under operational stress. 280 million barrels had already been used by 23 April – a drawdown of 35%.
So, what 90% of the stock is unusable without putting the system under pressure? It goes on to say there are minimum levels to be kept in pipelines and tanks, OK, I can get that, but 90%, that makes very little sense to me. How can 'the system' need sooo much of what is supposedly stock?
As it is, I think Hamilton's decision to run as "an independent minded Democrat" probably dooms him. Still: should he get the Democratic nomination, I think he'll run Marshall rather closer than Trump's 16 point margin; probably a 6-8 point Republican victory.
And, what's perhaps more important, I really don't want him to be PM.
I'm sure that enough people really don't want him to be PM that will ensure he won't be.
Anthropic is reportedly in talks to buy AI chips from Fractile, a UK SRAM-based AI chip startup whose product is expected to launch next year.
Smile and say bonjour to everyone you see in villages and little towns. Eat and drink the most local produce that you find
Not that Farage is a Churchill for our times.
Also 35%? Show your working there.
Is what I’ve seen so far…
And, yes, in that scenario, it's perfectly possible for there to be some wild results.
I think that we can only regard someone as the most skillex political operator of the last 50 years if they win more than one GE. So the bar is Cameron on 2, both Blair and Thatcher on 3.
If Farage becomes PM, I think he would emulate my football team wth serial relegations following an unusual triumph.
https://news.sky.com/story/sean-hogg-and-the-guidelines-for-sentencing-under-25s-in-scotland-12868279
And, as you say, this more likely that the first she was writing her name so it was readable.
* Which is why, of course, a lot of the vote rigging stuff was bollocks in the US. The question is do signatures vary any more than on -say- cheques?
There is a special kind of mediocre brain which is unable to divorce emotional dislike from rational assessment. Any rational assessment of Farage says he is the most succesful politician in the UK in the 21st century. He is personally responsible for building UKIP to such an extent that they WON a national election, for the EU parliament, He did this very deliberately: to pressure the Tories into calling a Brexit vote. This worked. Cameron was obliged to call the vote. Farage showed greater strategic nous, in this instance, than any politician I can think of, in my adult lifetime
What's more, he was then instrumental in winning that referendum. He let the poshos - Boris and Gove - do the high-minded sovereignty stuff, while he did the grubbier immigration angle they did not want to touch. A clever two pronged attack, which, against all the odds, won that vote. We Brexited. Farage changed world history
Most politicians might be content with that - but he's come back for more, and he has transformed a whole NEW party. Which has now led the polls in this country for a year or more. Almost unprecedented. He's also an electrifying campaigner. Recall when he announced his takeover of Reform in Clacton, he had the entire media at his beck and call, and he went on to win that seat in Westminster, giving Reforn real momentum such that he now has very senior Tories - ex chancellors, ex Home Secretaries - defecting to his cause
He might well change British political history for the SECOND time
Now, none of this means he is a nice man, let alone a good man, you might justifiably see him as utterly malignant and a destructive force. Fair enough. But looking at what he achieved and then claiming he is "unsuccessful" is, as I say, a symptom of a specific kind of effete, struggling intellect which cannot separate emotions from judgment. It is the cognition of a dullard: and that is what you are
'Both of my sons vote Reform,' she interjects, 'but they do it for a joke. They think that Farage is hilarious.'
https://www.dailymail.com/columnists/article-15785149/DAN-HODGES-old-pit-village-Labour-core-Starmer-Farage.html
We are losing the skill of handwriting, as a species
I will tell anyone who will listen that in my extensive travels around this planet, Mull is the most perfect mix of sea, sky and mountain vistas. There is a place overlooking Inch Kenneth (linked to the Mitford sisters) that has a spectacular view through 360 degrees. I don't know anywhere better (possibly excepting the high Himalayas in northern Pakistan).
For what it's worth, I think we should remember that the price mechanism is going to do a fair amount of the heavy lifting here. We're lucky this is happening as we move into summer, and people are simply going to drive and fly less. Now, sure, this will also cause some distress as a greater proportion of peoples' disposible income is spent on fuel rather than on -say- coffee.
We should also remember that the Gulf States will be working really hard to get pipelines out that bypass the Straits. (And that includes Iran, who has a pipeline and a port beyond them.)
It's going to be nasty, sure, but I'm actually much more worried about the impact on electricity prices in places where natural gas is the marginal power source.
Churchill started the day with a small tumbler of scotch, diluted with water. He called it his "mouthwash"
The champagne came later. Famously, he would have a pint bottle of Pol Roger, at lunch
Come the evening he began drinking properly
He does get around, doesn't he?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-uks-best-leader-37099107
EXCLUSIVE: 'Keir Starmer is UK's best leader and can win next election for Labour'
Anna Turley MP issued a rally cry in the face of difficult polling ahead of the May elections next week, pointing out Tony Blair lost around 1,150 councillors in 1999.
There are no tanks.
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If ever there was a more pointless exercise in "democracy" it was that "a free kick of Bishop Brennan up the arse" election.
We know Farage is very good at the first kind of success. So he is a very good politician in that one sense. We have no idea what he might be like in office, governing, because he's never had the chance. He might well be shite. Or not
Don't think I could live there. The winters would be brutal. But the rest of the year? Magnificent. Been badly sunburnt on Mull in April.
White-tailed eagles, otters, weird moths, corncrakes wandering around Iona - a joy.
Winning that EU election terrified the Tories into promising a referendum on EU membership, if they won the subsequent UK general election. The Tories won the UK election. So Cameron had to call the referendum which Farage had forced. Et voila
For one thing, it was under Theresa May. You know, the PM who took over AFTER Cameron had resigned because of the Referendum.
Jesus fucking Christ do you really not understand timelines? Muppet.
Lol.
I.e., both the number arriving and claiming asylum, and the numbers being returned.
Let's take Bangladesh. In 2016 there were 2,256 asylum applications. That then dropped to 1,712 in 2017, to 1,294 in 2018, and then was below 1,000 in each of the years between 2019 and 2021. It then shot up in 2022 and 2023, reaching 5,017 in 2023.
By contrast, Albalian asylum applications defied Covid, and shot up about 15x between 2018 and 2021, reaching 4,400 in that year.
If you assume a three to four year gap between claiming and returning, then it's not very surprising that we only saw a relatively small number of people being returned to Bangladesh, because a lot of this is from years when there simply weren't many asylum applications.
The question, really, is whether those numbers start to move up sharply in 2026 and 2027 as you start coming on the the three year mark on lots odf people arriving. I would hope that they do, but we shall see.
Now, the substance. You're conflating political disruption with political success, and they aren't the same thing. By your logic, the man who throws a grenade into a crowded room is the most effective person there. Leave has left the UK poorer, less influential, and still bitterly divided, by your logic a wound he opened and then retreated to GB News while others managed the wreckage.
You note he "let the poshos do the high-minded stuff" while he handled the "grubbier immigration angle." You intend this as tactical praise. Others might call it a deliberate choice to inflame rather than inform.
Reform leading the polls is also a rather different achievement in a first-past-the-post system, as the 2024 results demonstrated. four million votes, five seats.
Farage has been genuinely, remarkably effective at acquiring attention and applying pressure. That's real. But a politician who has never held a cabinet position, never passed legislation, and whose greatest legacy remains deeply contested isn't obviously the century's greatest success, he may simply be its greatest agitator.
Those are meaningfully different things, and distinguishing between them isn't emotional. It's the judgment you're asking others to exercise.
I may be a dullard but fuck knows what that makes you.