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Holyrood election – seats to watch – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848
    edited May 1

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
    Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to

    It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
    Meloni, Merkel, Takaichi etc as well as Thatcher.

    Whereas left/liberal female leaders eg Hillary, Truss, Harris, Royal etc either lost or in the case of Gillard scraped home in a hung parliament (May the rightwing exception on that front). Sturgeon is perhaps the most notable exception along with Golda Meir
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    :+1: I'm on at 50/1
    I don't think he's running for president this cycle.
    Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
    Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
    Ossoff: ‘Zero interest’ in running for president in 2028
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5845768-ossoff-not-running-2028/

    He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.

    Is it theoretically possible ?
    Of course.

    But 50/1 is probably about right.

    I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
    2028 though like 2008 might be the best chance for Democrats running for president for a generation
    Ossoff is 39 and will be 41 in election year. It's a bit young for American presidents. Clinton and Obama were 46 and 57 at the start of their terms, and of course there have been many older ones since.
    Same age as Macron though when he was elected
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    Probably. The link to terrorism seems at least as plausible as widespread antisemitism and it has been previously suggested the mentally ill are easy recruits for suicide missions. The series of attacks in Golders Green might suggest an external protagonist who does not know about Jewish populations elsewhere in London.

    But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
    I regard Southport as terrorism, the state does not. It seems to regard Golder's Green as terrorism (yet presumably formed that lacking evidence other than the targets).
    Interviewing the suspect might suggest that he had external support or encouragement
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    edited May 1
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
    Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to

    It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
    Meloni, Meir, Merkel, Takaichi etc as well as Thatcher.

    Whereas left/liberal female leaders eg Hillary, Truss, Harris, Royal etc either lost or in the case of Gillard scraped home in a hung parliament (May the rightwing exception on that front). Sturgeon is perhaps the most notable exception
    Indira Gandhi, Srimavo Bandaranaike, Benazir Bhutto, Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda Zia.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,649

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    Probably. The link to terrorism seems at least as plausible as widespread antisemitism and it has been previously suggested the mentally ill are easy recruits for suicide missions. The series of attacks in Golders Green might suggest an external protagonist who does not know about Jewish populations elsewhere in London.

    But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
    I regard Southport as terrorism, the state does not. It seems to regard Golder's Green as terrorism (yet presumably formed that lacking evidence other than the targets).
    I guess the distinction is whether violence was in the pursuit of an ideology. Making the distinction might determine how to deal with each type of violence. eg how to stop people being radicalised into terrorism; how to manage serious mental health conditions to keep people safe when they are near those who are afflicted.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    We've lost the trad Lab bloc to Reform and the Islamic vote to Greens/Independents. What's left is the tofu munchers, and you'd think they'd embrace diversity at every opportunity. But perhaps draw a line at working class Northerners.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    Leon said:

    The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness


    🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."

    Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”

    https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46

    What do you expect ?

    It’s going to end up,like that Blackadder gag. ‘The case of the Bloody Knife’ AI fleshed out the details but this is the joke.


    ‘ The Perpetrator: A man was caught red-handed, standing over a murdered body with the knife still in his hand.

    The Evidence: 13 witnesses saw him stab the victim, and upon arrest, the man shouted, "I'm glad I killed the bastard!".

    The Defense: Sir Bob Massingbird not only secured an acquittal but also got the murderer knighted in the New Year's Honours List.

    The Outcome: The relatives of the victim were forced to pay to wash the blood out of the murderer's jacket’
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    We've lost the trad Lab bloc to Reform and the Islamic vote to Greens/Independents. What's left is the tofu munchers, and you'd think they'd embrace diversity at every opportunity. But perhaps draw a line at working class Northerners.
    Pannier munchers?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,281

    Eabhal said:

    FTP

    isam said:

    This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.

    Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.

    I hope it doesn't cause offence.

    I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
    In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.

    Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.

    Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.

    A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.

    When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."

    Words can kill.
    This is obviously true.

    But if we extended that standard into the criminal law you’d have to arrest half the boomers posting on Facebook (and 90% of those posting about cyclists).

    There are already thousands of posts a day which are already illegal (clear incitement) and aren’t investigated by the police. And yet we still have a “hurty words” narrative.
    That is because too often the Police are indeed going for the 'hurty words' rather than the real incitement. They do this because it is low hanging fruit, easy to get a clear up on and looks good on the stats. Most of the time you don't even have to bother with courts. Just a Police Caution. Far more difficult to prove real incitement by people who really are inciting.

    This is what is wrong with the hate speech laws. They do exactly the opposite of what we want. The give the police lots of easy targets who are really doing bugger all beyond expressing an opinion the PTB do not like and allow them to ignore the more difficut but more dangerous behaviours.
    That’s a good point.

    I think we can extend that to the thousands of arrests of PA supporters (the large majority of which have not been charged). Imagine if that time and energy had been extended to those actually inciting violence, or keeping checks on the kind of individual likely to actually stab Jews in London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
    Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to

    It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
    Meloni, Meir, Merkel, Takaichi etc as well as Thatcher.

    Whereas left/liberal female leaders eg Hillary, Truss, Harris, Royal etc either lost or in the case of Gillard scraped home in a hung parliament (May the rightwing exception on that front). Sturgeon is perhaps the most notable exception
    Indira Gandhi, Srimavo Bandaranaike, Benazir Bhutto, Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda Zia.
    In 1971 Gandhi's second placed opponent was the Indian Communist party, so then she was with the INC to the right of them
  • eekeek Posts: 33,908
    edited May 1

    Solar update - yesterday was our first full day of generation - we generated over 30kWh which was more than 3x our own electricity consumption. I would recommend anyone with the financial and logistical ability to go for it.

    When is your estimated break even? (My friend was quoted about years, but thinks it will be six).
    I can’t see a break even that makes sense for me (edit mainly because our roof is so bad for the number of panels I can put on it) on solar.

    The break even for a battery is probably 3 years if you can source them cheaply enough
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    The MHI is still in place on the Council I believe.
    This is a 2 seat ward and the vacancy was for the Tory who came second last time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739
    edited May 1

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    Funny old world where a leftie like me agrees with pretty much everything Major says.
    Mind you, he's a cricket fan, so I was always more willing to give him the time of day.
    Major is a good egg.
    A Currie d egg!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
    Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to

    It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
    Meloni, Merkel, Takaichi etc as well as Thatcher.

    Whereas left/liberal female leaders eg Hillary, Truss, Harris, Royal etc either lost or in the case of Gillard scraped home in a hung parliament (May the rightwing exception on that front). Sturgeon is perhaps the most notable exception along with Golda Meir
    Indira Ghandi

    Benazir Bhutto


  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    :+1: I'm on at 50/1
    I don't think he's running for president this cycle.
    Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
    Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
    Ossoff: ‘Zero interest’ in running for president in 2028
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5845768-ossoff-not-running-2028/

    He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.

    Is it theoretically possible ?
    Of course.

    But 50/1 is probably about right.

    I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
    They've madebillions to invest in him getting the Presidency.

    But by 2028 I think the Trump brand will be on a par with dog shit.
    Along with Vance, Rubio and anyone else connected with the administration.

    But someone will still get nominated.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness


    🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."

    Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”

    https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46

    What do you expect ?

    It’s going to end up,like that Blackadder gag. ‘The case of the Bloody Knife’ AI fleshed out the details but this is the joke.


    ‘ The Perpetrator: A man was caught red-handed, standing over a murdered body with the knife still in his hand.

    The Evidence: 13 witnesses saw him stab the victim, and upon arrest, the man shouted, "I'm glad I killed the bastard!".

    The Defense: Sir Bob Massingbird not only secured an acquittal but also got the murderer knighted in the New Year's Honours List.

    The Outcome: The relatives of the victim were forced to pay to wash the blood out of the murderer's jacket’
    If this insanity continues we will see a very nasty right wing government take power in one or more European countries. And I don’t mean Farage or Meloni. I mean something more like the AfD
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections

    The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country

    Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her

    They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership

    “A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.

    Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson

    This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20

    Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.

    Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
    Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
    Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to

    It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
    Meloni, Merkel, Takaichi etc as well as Thatcher.

    Whereas left/liberal female leaders eg Hillary, Truss, Harris, Royal etc either lost or in the case of Gillard scraped home in a hung parliament (May the rightwing exception on that front). Sturgeon is perhaps the most notable exception along with Golda Meir
    Left/liberal female leaders would include Gro Harlem Brundtland, Corazon Aquino, Claudia Sheinbaum, Édith Cresson, Xiomara Castro, and Yulia Tymoshenko.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness


    🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."

    Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”

    https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46

    What do you expect ?

    It’s going to end up,like that Blackadder gag. ‘The case of the Bloody Knife’ AI fleshed out the details but this is the joke.


    ‘ The Perpetrator: A man was caught red-handed, standing over a murdered body with the knife still in his hand.

    The Evidence: 13 witnesses saw him stab the victim, and upon arrest, the man shouted, "I'm glad I killed the bastard!".

    The Defense: Sir Bob Massingbird not only secured an acquittal but also got the murderer knighted in the New Year's Honours List.

    The Outcome: The relatives of the victim were forced to pay to wash the blood out of the murderer's jacket’
    If this insanity continues we will see a very nasty right wing government take power in one or more European countries. And I don’t mean Farage or Meloni. I mean something more like the AfD
    That’s my worry too.

    That’s the last thing we want or need.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,170
    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
    Unbelievably at my Uni the paternity leave is just 2 weeks. At one of the hot beds of woke. I guess men don't matter as much as women.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    I'm not a great fan of overreading single local by election results.
    Nevertheless, an impressive Reform win.
    In an area that won't be holding elections next week.
    Although Malvern Hills has another by election first up after the locals.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
    Yes, but UK mat leave is 9 months paid, so the UK maternity allowance alone is more than AOC’s proposal (3 months each).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373
    Texas Public Opinion Research poll has Talarico (Dem) leading the Texas Senate race against Paxton (Repub) by 5%. His lead against Cornyn is reduced to 3% - but Paxton more likely to be the Republican candidate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikcMZUWpq8g
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    FWIW I think he's wrong to blame pharma companies for America's healthcare woes (they are only a small part of its problems; insurers and PBMs are far more to blame), but bang on the money about the corruption of politics engendered by the unlimited funding Citizens United allows.

    And lobbying did help kill healthcare reform.

    But his real skill is narrative; the analysis isn't 100% right, but the narrative is compelling, and readily accessible for the average voter.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
    Unbelievably at my Uni the paternity leave is just 2 weeks. At one of the hot beds of woke. I guess men don't matter as much as women.
    How very odd!
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    :+1: I'm on at 50/1
    I don't think he's running for president this cycle.
    Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
    Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
    Ossoff: ‘Zero interest’ in running for president in 2028
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5845768-ossoff-not-running-2028/

    He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.

    Is it theoretically possible ?
    Of course.

    But 50/1 is probably about right.

    I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
    They've madebillions to invest in him getting the Presidency.

    But by 2028 I think the Trump brand will be on a par with dog shit.
    Along with Vance, Rubio and anyone else connected with the administration.

    But someone will still get nominated.
    *MTG waves*

    *Gets slapped down by Tucker Carlson...*
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739
    edited May 1

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    edited May 1
    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    They are Australian.

    Anyway, blocking them will improve my feed, so cheers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    It feels like we could wake up in a country with completely different political geography next Friday. The realignment that Brexit hinted was possible will finally arrive.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    Just been canvassed by one of my local Labour councillors. I had to interrupt her spiel halfway through to explain that I’m standing against her! Anyway, she was very nice and I wished her well. I don’t think she views us as her main opposition in a ward with a current split Labour/Green representation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    edited May 1
    Leon said:

    The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness


    🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."

    Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”

    https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46

    It's an odd sentencing tbh - if the reason he's done is due to "low IQ and a reduced understanding of reality" he needs to be kept in secure psychiatric accomodation for the rest of his life.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
    I don't think Reform are anybody's friends! Not outside of Washingtom and Moscow anyway.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,552
    eek said:

    Solar update - yesterday was our first full day of generation - we generated over 30kWh which was more than 3x our own electricity consumption. I would recommend anyone with the financial and logistical ability to go for it.

    When is your estimated break even? (My friend was quoted about years, but thinks it will be six).
    I can’t see a break even that makes sense for me (edit mainly because our roof is so bad for the number of panels I can put on it) on solar.

    The break even for a battery is probably 3 years if you can source them cheaply enough
    Without wanting to temper OLB's enthusiasm, yesterday was an unusually sunny day. We managed 36 yesterday, but over the course of a year we average around 14 per day.
    Still, I'd urge anyone who can to invest in solar.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    FWIW I think he's wrong to blame pharma companies for America's healthcare woes (they are only a small part of its problems; insurers and PBMs are far more to blame), but bang on the money about the corruption of politics engendered by the unlimited funding Citizens United allows.

    And lobbying did help kill healthcare reform.

    But his real skill is narrative; the analysis isn't 100% right, but the narrative is compelling, and readily accessible for the average voter.
    It’s far too subtle a point for a campaign advert, but there’s a difference between corruption and lobbying. Lobbying is legal, corruption is illegal. There’s nothing inherently wrong with companies expressing their views to politicians. The problem is a system where politicians are so reliant on donations and donations so unregulated, and where wealth is very unequally distributed… but that’s not corruption. That’s how the US system deliberately runs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739
    edited May 1
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    I am assuming Tenbury Wells is now in the sprawling Malvern Hills Council area. If I am correct and this Tenbury is Tenbury Wells it is closer to Stourport/ Kiddy as it is to Great Malvern. Not far from Bromyard either which was quite Brexity a decade ago.

    The Greens next door in North Herefordshire should be nervous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    .

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    Another random on X ?

    The worst take, since it came from a mainstream (or at least would be mainstream) politician, was Polanski's.
    And he's still to actually apologise directly for it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
    I don't think Reform are anybody's friends! Not outside of Washingtom and Moscow anyway.
    Kemi seems to quite like them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
    Rochdale you have seen the light now you live up here. With all those windmills, solar panels etc we should be paying buttons rather than the highest prices in the empire. That is how colonies work though, suck them dry.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    FWIW I think he's wrong to blame pharma companies for America's healthcare woes (they are only a small part of its problems; insurers and PBMs are far more to blame), but bang on the money about the corruption of politics engendered by the unlimited funding Citizens United allows.

    And lobbying did help kill healthcare reform.

    But his real skill is narrative; the analysis isn't 100% right, but the narrative is compelling, and readily accessible for the average voter.
    It’s far too subtle a point for a campaign advert, but there’s a difference between corruption and lobbying. Lobbying is legal, corruption is illegal. There’s nothing inherently wrong with companies expressing their views to politicians. The problem is a system where politicians are so reliant on donations and donations so unregulated, and where wealth is very unequally distributed… but that’s not corruption. That’s how the US system deliberately runs.
    Unrestricted political spending, which is where America is now, is corrupt, IMO. Deliberate choice (which it isn't for an awful lot of voters*) or not.

    But yes, there is a difference between that and the activities of the Trump crime family (but also a degree of overlap).

    *Congress chose, several times, to limit campaign finance; they were overruled by a handful of judges.

    And Democrats are still campaigning to overturn Citizens United.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    A possible Brexit benefit is that we are not beholden to special interests in the EU car industry, which looks like it will be absolutely gutted by China over the next few years.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/30/the-rise-of-the-temu-range-rover

    At the start of the decade Chinese cars accounted for 1% of all new sales in the country. Now they account for 15%, which is the highest figure among the big European markets.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    Another random on X ?

    The worst take, since it came from a mainstream (or at least would be mainstream) politician, was Polanski's.
    And he's still to actually apologise directly for it.
    The Welsh Green leader has suggested the retweet was incorrect. I saw someone on X say "so you think it's OK for the police to kick people in the head then?" to which the obvious answer is yes, if they have a knife. You have to render them incapable of using it.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,908

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The law isn't there to close down the minimarts / vape shops - our local trading standards closed 2 shops (out of probably 20 dodgy ones around town) on Tuesday and spent most of Wednesday pointing out they have to catch them selling dodgy items - because unlike alcohol you can (currently) sell cigarettes without any licence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    A possible Brexit benefit is that we are not beholden to special interests in the EU car industry, which looks like it will be absolutely gutted by China over the next few years.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/30/the-rise-of-the-temu-range-rover

    At the start of the decade Chinese cars accounted for 1% of all new sales in the country. Now they account for 15%, which is the highest figure among the big European markets.

    They now account for nearly a third of sales in S Korea, which has, outside of China, probably the most competitive car industry in the world.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
    Yes, but UK mat leave is 9 months paid, so the UK maternity allowance alone is more than AOC’s proposal (3 months each).
    Bulgaria they get 2 with pay and option to take another one without pay
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 1
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    Of the - relatively few, compared to current expectations - Reform councillors newly elected last year, already 74 have resigned, defected, or been expelled or suspended from their party. With over 1,000 new Reform councillors due to be elected this time around, most of whom have little idea of what they have signed up for and many of whom won’t actually be expecting to be elected, the chaos about to be inflicted upon many of our councils over the coming year we can only imagine. The upside for PB’ers is that there is likely to be a lot more local by-elections over coming months than we’ve been used to prior. Meanwhile we can only pat Leon on the head for his naive belief that electing some of these extremist numpties to represent us is going to lead to any sort of improvement in the lives of British voters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
    That would probably command majority public support.
    One caveat is the way in which Trump campaigned on deporting "the worst of the worst" criminals, and has done no such thing.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness


    🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."

    Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”

    https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46

    It's an odd sentencing tbh - if the reason he's done is due to "low IQ and a reduced understanding of reality" he needs to be kept in secure psychiatric accomodation for the rest of his life.
    Yes, and yet apparently that won’t happen, or so it is being reported…
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Not really. Neither Green nor LD voters will touch reform with a barge pole, and Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse that has sat on any reform of our political system for my entire lifetime. As a signed up LibDem, I’ve voted Green now for each of the last three GEs.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    It feels like we could wake up in a country with completely different political geography next Friday. The realignment that Brexit hinted was possible will finally arrive.
    I note that the Economist, through gritted teeth, is now admitting that Brexit did not damage The City as they predicted

    “The City has bounced back despite fears over Brexit”

    https://x.com/theeconomist/status/2049787141232767093?s=46
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739
    edited May 1

    A possible Brexit benefit is that we are not beholden to special interests in the EU car industry, which looks like it will be absolutely gutted by China over the next few years.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/30/the-rise-of-the-temu-range-rover

    At the start of the decade Chinese cars accounted for 1% of all new sales in the country. Now they account for 15%, which is the highest figure among the big European markets.

    And you don't think it will be OK here?

    Just in Bridgend, the best selling marque for a decade has been the SAIC MG from Nathaniel who have now disposed of their Fiat dealership. Sinclair Mercedes also stock BYD, Days Ford (in Neath) are also Chery, FRF Vauxhall/Peugeot stock Leapmotor. Bassetts Nissan have been replaced by Jaecoo/ Omodo.

    Basically in or out of the EU the European Motor Industry is f*****, especially in Britain.

    If you want ( I don't) an enormous £30K Chelsea Tractor that looks like a £100,000 plus Range Rover, why not go for the Temu Range Rover? It's not like Omoda reliability and residuals are likely to be any worse than JLR.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    edited May 1

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
  • TresTres Posts: 3,647

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
    This earlier attack seems to have been completely buried in all the news reporting I've heard.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
    The "war crime" one about the police is actually moderately popular, among the stupid.

    When someone notices the police use expanding bullets, generally.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    This is extraordinary stuff from @BBCNews - thanks to @AlexArmstrong for the edit.

    https://x.com/joerichlaw/status/2049979662164508921?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
    This earlier attack seems to have been completely buried in all the news reporting I've heard.
    As he is (presumably) a Muslim, then the first attack may just have been someone he knows. It doesn't mean the second attack wasn't terrorist-related. Maybe we should wait for the trial to avoid jumping to conclusions
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Not really. Neither Green nor LD voters will touch reform with a barge pole, and Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse that has sat on any reform of our political system for my entire lifetime. As a signed up LibDem, I’ve voted Green now for each of the last three GEs.
    And you still think yourself a LibDem?

    Plenty who will vote Tory knowing it will be alost cause, rather than going for a "winning here" vote for Reform.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
    Leon and Glenn are both impressive adverts for banning access to social media for younger people and for anyone whose mental capacity hasn’t expanded since those teenage years. Too many people have burrowed their way down rabbit holes since, to regard social media as an unalloyed positive. It’s a shame Leon’s PB account has regenerated so many times, since comparing his PB output now with that of years back would be akin to comparing the Parliamentary debates of today with those from the last century.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499
    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    They are getting cleverer than that.

    My local hair dresser (former GreeK Cypriot outfit, taken over by a very dubious Turkish chap) started taking card payment after the change over.

    According to the cousin who works there, the owner has a half dozen shops. And supports a nice house in Hertfordshire off them. Including a helicopter pad, with a helicopter.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    Nigelb said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
    That would probably command majority public support.
    One caveat is the way in which Trump campaigned on deporting "the worst of the worst" criminals, and has done no such thing.
    In the "this is already the law" category
    asylum application are paused if an applicant is charged with an offence that could result in a sentence of 12 months or more
    visas refused or cancelled if convicted and sentenced to 12 months or more and discretion to refuse for sentences less than 12 months.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
    This earlier attack seems to have been completely buried in all the news reporting I've heard.
    As he is (presumably) a Muslim, then the first attack may just have been someone he knows. It doesn't mean the second attack wasn't terrorist-related. Maybe we should wait for the trial to avoid jumping to conclusions
    The coverage on the Golders Green attacks has been wall to wall, breathless. I didn't even know he'd stabbed someone earlier till the Owen Jones tweet/Sky News muting their X replies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Not really. Neither Green nor LD voters will touch reform with a barge pole, and Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse that has sat on any reform of our political system for my entire lifetime. As a signed up LibDem, I’ve voted Green now for each of the last three GEs.
    And you still think yourself a LibDem?

    Plenty who will vote Tory knowing it will be alost cause, rather than going for a "winning here" vote for Reform.
    If the LDs can find a decent candidate, I’d be up for backing him or her next time. But the reality is that my seat looks like being a battle between the Tory MP and Reform, neither of whom I can vote for, so the only hope is that a centre left candidate can come through the middle. And right now that looks impossible for either Labour or LibDem.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    A possible Brexit benefit is that we are not beholden to special interests in the EU car industry, which looks like it will be absolutely gutted by China over the next few years.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/30/the-rise-of-the-temu-range-rover

    At the start of the decade Chinese cars accounted for 1% of all new sales in the country. Now they account for 15%, which is the highest figure among the big European markets.

    Not for NI. Whilst EU tariffs don't normally apply in NI, anti-dumping tariffs apparently do:

    https://mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/northern-ireland-slaps-tariffs-on
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
    I don't think Reform are anybody's friends! Not outside of Washingtom and Moscow anyway.
    Kemi seems to quite like them.
    Glib thing to say, but not true.

    She's delighted at the clear-out of the deadwood to Reform.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    Fortunately in pre-election Purdah we can't comment on Zack and his very strange Golders Green intervention.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    Bloody hell, big ‘I stand with soldier F’ vibe.
    Do you think they took it down because they were too thick to realise the history, or did wiser heads have a word with the edgelord tendency?

    https://x.com/flying_rodent/status/2050197888131596764?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    Of the - relatively few, compared to current expectations - Reform councillors newly elected last year, already 74 have resigned, defected, or been expelled or suspended from their party. With over 1,000 new Reform councillors due to be elected this time around, most of whom have little idea of what they have signed up for and many of whom won’t actually be expecting to be elected, the chaos about to be inflicted upon many of our councils over the coming year we can only imagine. The upside for PB’ers is that there is likely to be a lot more local by-elections over coming months than we’ve been used to prior. Meanwhile we can only pat Leon on the head for his naive belief that electing some of these extremist numpties to represent us is going to lead to any sort of improvement in the lives of British voters.
    I thought some numbers had previously been shared on here, and Reform wasn't much different to the other parties in terms of percentage of resignations, defections and expulsions. A quick look at the Open Council Data changes log certainly shows it happening to all parties
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,946
    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
    He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
    The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.

    That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
    The ONS currently thinks the only growth in population between now and 2034 will be from net immigration. Without that net immigration, the population would decline 450k, and it only steepens from there on in.

    If we actually went to net zero immigration, pressure on housing would probably start to unwind quite quickly as the population starts falling - you don't need many more houses than families wanting them for prices to start dropping substantially. We're perhaps a million houses short now - between building out everything that's already got planning, and that 450k population drop, we'd probably already be into oversupply by 2034.

    I'm increasingly of the view that actually the nimbys are right, at least regarding housing (industrial premises and infrastructure are a different problem). We don't actually need much more housing, we just need to stop artificially expanding the population.

    It will happen anyway sooner or later unless someone solves the replacement rate issue, so why keep throwing nasty up Barratt wonders to house immigrants? In 25-50 years time are going to recreate chunks of abandoned Chicago, as no-one will want them during a time of housing over-supply.
    I don’t think that’s true at all. Most of the housing pressure has not come from population growth, as demonstrated in Scotland (population up 11% since 2000, houses up 18%, prices up 205%)

    I think there will be sustained pressure because relatively young immigrants, living in cramped conditions, will (hopefully) develop some wealth and live in multiple houses. And then you’ve got divorce, an ageing population…

    (There’s a massive residual in that 200% price growth that isn’t explained by demographics, but that’s another debate…)
    The thing with house prices is that demand is very inelastic. People really, really, want somewhere to live.

    So when supply is constrained, they usually will spend as much as they can humanly afford to have somewhere to live.

    All the while there aren't enough houses to go round, people will pretty outbid each other until they have no money to raise their bids. This doesn't change all that much between 10 people chasing 6 houses and 11 people chasing 7 houses.

    In reality, what has changed on your example is that there is still insufficient housing for the population, but there is more money chasing the same houses (big drivers being banks lending bigger multiples, more female participation in the workforce).

    The other thing is that household size is probably dropping through changing family structures which increases demand.

    There's also quite a lot of suppressed demand (typically young people currently sharing HMOs or living with parents) which will keep expanding the number of households as more housing comes available - this pressure holds house prices up against modest increases in supply.

    Scotland's housing market is also interconnected to England, where the population has risen much faster than the rate of house building.

    The counterpart of housing demand being very inelastic is that if supply exceeds demand, prices really crash. It's virtually impossible to reach this position by building more housing because private builders will stop building as soon as sale prices drop below the cost of building (as as noted plenty on here in the past, we've deliberately made building housing really expensive via planning and building regs requirements).

    It's quite easy to achieve an excess of supply with fairly modest depopulation, and at that point prices go off a cliff, especially for less desirable houses. Hence the abandoned neighborhoods in Chicago.

    In the UK we're currently going backwards - all the housing we've built in the last 10 years (and there's lot of it - new estates all over my part of the world) isn't sufficient for the increase in population from immigration in that time alone.

    A sane immigration policy (i.e. almost none) could lead to substantial net emmigration. If that happened, we could not issue one single more planning permission, and house prices would still almost certainly be falling within ten years. That is how easy the whole problem is to fix with our current demographics.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    malcolmg said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have).
    Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?

    "You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
    https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100

    It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
    Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
    Statutory Paternity leave in the UK is 2 weeks @ either £194.32 a week or 90% of their average weekly earnings
    Yes, but UK mat leave is 9 months paid, so the UK maternity allowance alone is more than AOC’s proposal (3 months each).
    Bulgaria they get 2 with pay and option to take another one without pay
    What is with this hatred of the younger generations?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499

    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
    The council sees business rates paid
    The government sees taxes paid on every penny - employment taxes, profits, VAT. The lot - unless the people running it are very very stupid.
    The owners get washed money

    What's the problem?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
    How difficult would it be to monitor high street traffic and pursue what must be massive discrepancies between reported turnover and the amount of footfall ?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,355
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    It feels like we could wake up in a country with completely different political geography next Friday. The realignment that Brexit hinted was possible will finally arrive.
    I note that the Economist, through gritted teeth, is now admitting that Brexit did not damage The City as they predicted

    “The City has bounced back despite fears over Brexit”

    https://x.com/theeconomist/status/2049787141232767093?s=46
    Yes I saw that too.

    Last week they were saying similar things about farming and the post-Brexit restructuring of subsidies.

    They usually accompany it with phrases like "rare Brexit benefit" though - they can't quite bring themselves to admit that the massive damage they foresaw hasn't really happened.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
    This earlier attack seems to have been completely buried in all the news reporting I've heard.
    As he is (presumably) a Muslim, then the first attack may just have been someone he knows. It doesn't mean the second attack wasn't terrorist-related. Maybe we should wait for the trial to avoid jumping to conclusions
    The coverage on the Golders Green attacks has been wall to wall, breathless. I didn't even know he'd stabbed someone earlier till the Owen Jones tweet/Sky News muting their X replies.
    Coincidentally, I'm reading about an early 19th Century moral panic, and The Six Acts of 1819.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    IanB2 said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
    Leon and Glenn are both impressive adverts for banning access to social media for younger people and for anyone whose mental capacity hasn’t expanded since those teenage years. Too many people have burrowed their way down rabbit holes since, to regard social media as an unalloyed positive. It’s a shame Leon’s PB account has regenerated so many times, since comparing his PB output now with that of years back would be akin to comparing the Parliamentary debates of today with those from the last century.
    I dunno. I seem to be doing OK for someone with diminished cognitive capacity

    You’re alone in a sad house in Ventnor. I’m lying in a hammock on the balcony in my free five star safari lodge in Rwanda, watching this hippo as he surfaces in the lake



    Imagine what I could achieve if my brain wasn’t addled. I’d probably be intergalactic Pope, or something
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    Dopermean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
    That would probably command majority public support.
    One caveat is the way in which Trump campaigned on deporting "the worst of the worst" criminals, and has done no such thing.
    In the "this is already the law" category
    asylum application are paused if an applicant is charged with an offence that could result in a sentence of 12 months or more
    visas refused or cancelled if convicted and sentenced to 12 months or more and discretion to refuse for sentences less than 12 months.
    And if the person has ILR? That all sounds like relatively short-term visas
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
    I don't think Reform are anybody's friends! Not outside of Washingtom and Moscow anyway.
    Kemi seems to quite like them.
    Glib thing to say, but not true.

    She's delighted at the clear-out of the deadwood to Reform.
    I'll buy you a Key Lime Pie if the Tories and Reform don't help each other either formally or informally at the next GE if Badenoch remains LOTO.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133

    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
    The council sees business rates paid
    The government sees taxes paid on every penny - employment taxes, profits, VAT. The lot - unless the people running it are very very stupid.
    The owners get washed money

    What's the problem?
    You don't think these businesses go insolvent owing HMRC?
    PPE medpro (Mone and Barrowman) owed HMRC £39m, I think your local money laundering operation will have realised they can go insolvent owing HMRC 5 figures without much fuss.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    Bloody hell, big ‘I stand with soldier F’ vibe.
    Do you think they took it down because they were too thick to realise the history, or did wiser heads have a word with the edgelord tendency?

    https://x.com/flying_rodent/status/2050197888131596764?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    https://bsky.app/profile/richardgallagher.bsky.social/post/3mks44q7pnk2s

    Bloody Sunday footage included in a tweet by Kemi Badenoch valorising British soldiers

    Those who do not remember history are condemned to...repost it on Twitter
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    Another random on X ?

    The worst take, since it came from a mainstream (or at least would be mainstream) politician, was Polanski's.
    And he's still to actually apologise directly for it.
    The Welsh Green leader has suggested the retweet was incorrect. I saw someone on X say "so you think it's OK for the police to kick people in the head then?" to which the obvious answer is yes, if they have a knife. You have to render them incapable of using it.
    Better they were kicked in the head than that they were shot in it.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133

    Dopermean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
    That would probably command majority public support.
    One caveat is the way in which Trump campaigned on deporting "the worst of the worst" criminals, and has done no such thing.
    In the "this is already the law" category
    asylum application are paused if an applicant is charged with an offence that could result in a sentence of 12 months or more
    visas refused or cancelled if convicted and sentenced to 12 months or more and discretion to refuse for sentences less than 12 months.
    And if the person has ILR? That all sounds like relatively short-term visas
    Same for ILR
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)

    There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
    Unless the Reform is the same person who used to be the Malvern Hills Indy.
    Even if he is it means a LOT of people in Malvern are not put off by the Reform branding. And Malvern Hills (which I know well) is not classic Reform territory
    It feels like we could wake up in a country with completely different political geography next Friday. The realignment that Brexit hinted was possible will finally arrive.
    I note that the Economist, through gritted teeth, is now admitting that Brexit did not damage The City as they predicted

    “The City has bounced back despite fears over Brexit”

    https://x.com/theeconomist/status/2049787141232767093?s=46
    Yes I saw that too.

    Last week they were saying similar things about farming and the post-Brexit restructuring of subsidies.

    They usually accompany it with phrases like "rare Brexit benefit" though - they can't quite bring themselves to admit that the massive damage they foresaw hasn't really happened.
    The City has actually closed the gap, again, on NYC. It could feasibly rank, once more, as the world’s leading financial centre in a year or two

    It’s raced ahead in some areas even as in others - like the LSE - it has stumbled

    The hopes that Paris, Milan or Frankfurt would take over turned out to be grossly exaggerated
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Very close and a similar dynamic to neighbouring North Herefordshire Parliamentary constituency. Zack's anti -Semite Corbyn Party are shipping votes, presumably to Tories. Remember Tories, Reform are not your friends.
    I don't think Reform are anybody's friends! Not outside of Washingtom and Moscow anyway.
    Kemi seems to quite like them.
    Glib thing to say, but not true.

    She's delighted at the clear-out of the deadwood to Reform.
    I still suspect the other Ewok Powell* (not Tiny Tom) will be a future Tory Prime Minister, hopefully, after I am dead and buried.

    * both from Wolverhampton too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    London is hot, sweaty and full of people. Horrible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499
    Dopermean said:

    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
    The council sees business rates paid
    The government sees taxes paid on every penny - employment taxes, profits, VAT. The lot - unless the people running it are very very stupid.
    The owners get washed money

    What's the problem?
    You don't think these businesses go insolvent owing HMRC?
    PPE medpro (Mone and Barrowman) owed HMRC £39m, I think your local money laundering operation will have realised they can go insolvent owing HMRC 5 figures without much fuss.
    The smarter ones realise, I think, that paying tax is kicking money up to a higher gang boss. My local barber shop raised the pay for employees, re-did the inside, even tidied up the outside of the shop. Though they only ever have two people working there, despite having 6 chairs. The previous owner would have a minimum of 4 people working all the time.

    If the level of money laundering is as many think it is, there is an enormous incentive for the authorities to look away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?

    How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).

    Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.

    It seems, from Owen Jones on X, that he also knifed a Muslim, and has been charged with three counts of attempted murder
    This earlier attack seems to have been completely buried in all the news reporting I've heard.
    As he is (presumably) a Muslim, then the first attack may just have been someone he knows. It doesn't mean the second attack wasn't terrorist-related. Maybe we should wait for the trial to avoid jumping to conclusions
    The coverage on the Golders Green attacks has been wall to wall, breathless. I didn't even know he'd stabbed someone earlier till the Owen Jones tweet/Sky News muting their X replies.
    Coincidentally, I'm reading about an early 19th Century moral panic, and The Six Acts of 1819.
    After the Siege of Sidney Street, Churchill (as Home Sec.) was booed by some locals. Because he was seen as soft on immigrants.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,739
    IanB2 said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
    Leon and Glenn are both impressive adverts for banning access to social media for younger people and for anyone whose mental capacity hasn’t expanded since those teenage years. Too many people have burrowed their way down rabbit holes since, to regard social media as an unalloyed positive. It’s a shame Leon’s PB account has regenerated so many times, since comparing his PB output now with that of years back would be akin to comparing the Parliamentary debates of today with those from the last century.
    I remember him here back in 2005. Only the name changes.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    So... what is the government doing about it? They piss about passing stupid laws about things that don't need to be illegal, yet will not sit down with the police and Treasury sols to devise a package to close down obvious illegality.

    Deporting any immigrant who commits an offence with a tariff over 6 months would be a good start. I'd be more generous towards people granted asylum, but if you come here and commit rape for example, you should be deemed to have withdrawn your request for asylum. It doesn't matter if you are sent home and killed, it is perfectly possible to choose not to commit crimes and you have effectively chosen that yourself.
    That would probably command majority public support.
    One caveat is the way in which Trump campaigned on deporting "the worst of the worst" criminals, and has done no such thing.
    In the "this is already the law" category
    asylum application are paused if an applicant is charged with an offence that could result in a sentence of 12 months or more
    visas refused or cancelled if convicted and sentenced to 12 months or more and discretion to refuse for sentences less than 12 months.
    And if the person has ILR? That all sounds like relatively short-term visas
    Same for ILR
    And how often do deportations actually happen?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Martha's Rule. Useful thing if you are in a hospital and the patient is obviously dying and the nurses/doctors are doing nothing to stop it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/01/marthas-rule-how-a-woman-saved-her-father-from-near-death-in-hospital-oxford
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,499

    IanB2 said:

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    I have found the single worst Woke Left take on the Golders Green stabbings. Prepare yourself

    Here it is

    “That guy’s going to get slammed with terrorism charges and spend the rest of his life in prison, all because he was unlucky enough to be off his meds in a Jewish neighborhood during an artificially manufactured moral panic about antisemitism”

    The tweeter has 460,000 followers

    https://x.com/caitoz/status/2050034507273871445?s=46

    I saw one yesterday saying that the police had committed a war crime.
    ah bless, we can see the both of you rotting your brains in real-time
    Leon and Glenn are both impressive adverts for banning access to social media for younger people and for anyone whose mental capacity hasn’t expanded since those teenage years. Too many people have burrowed their way down rabbit holes since, to regard social media as an unalloyed positive. It’s a shame Leon’s PB account has regenerated so many times, since comparing his PB output now with that of years back would be akin to comparing the Parliamentary debates of today with those from the last century.
    I remember him here back in 2005. Only the name changes.
    Which of the several million personalities are you referring to?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    Dopermean said:

    malcolmg said:

    Anecdote alert. Haircut time, lady barber ranting about a local case where a carwash was turned over by police and half a dozen people found who shouldn't be working there. Three straightforward illegals and I think three asylum seekers not supposed to be working. The owner will get a hefty fine, but he's a Turkish Kurd, fairly well known in the area, in fact he occasionally drinks in my local. As she pointed out, why won't he be deported? If he lives here but chooses to break our laws, that seems reasonable.

    She was all for shooting (sic) illegal immigrants/workers which seems a bit extreme and has in fact heard of Rupert Lowe which surprised me. She's a bit right wing and prone to conspiracy theories but I think the sticking point, as a businesswoman is these businesses operate paying no tax and ignore regulatory requirements.

    Why aren't the police and immigration more heavy-handed? They should seek to close these places down. If you find illegal immigrants working at a business you should raid it on a random day every week. Or there should be a legal mechanism to close it down.

    If she's a representative sample, there's a lot of rage out there, which is brought out by seeing obvious illegal activity on the high street (minimarts, vape shops, barbers, car washes) which are obvious to us citizens but the authorities do f all about.

    The game played is that the premises, equipment etc is owned by a one company. Which then hires out to another company. When the later outfit is caught, goes bankrupt. Another company takes over the lease.....

    "Just collects me rent, don't knows nuffink about no crimes, Orificer."
    Most if not all deal in cash only which is a big clue.
    My barber pointed out you don't actually need customers to launder cash, you just put the dirty money through and hey presto it has just become the proceeds of selling soft drinks, or vape fluids, or whatever
    The council sees business rates paid
    The government sees taxes paid on every penny - employment taxes, profits, VAT. The lot - unless the people running it are very very stupid.
    The owners get washed money

    What's the problem?
    You don't think these businesses go insolvent owing HMRC?
    PPE medpro (Mone and Barrowman) owed HMRC £39m, I think your local money laundering operation will have realised they can go insolvent owing HMRC 5 figures without much fuss.
    The smarter ones realise, I think, that paying tax is kicking money up to a higher gang boss. My local barber shop raised the pay for employees, re-did the inside, even tidied up the outside of the shop. Though they only ever have two people working there, despite having 6 chairs. The previous owner would have a minimum of 4 people working all the time.

    If the level of money laundering is as many think it is, there is an enormous incentive for the authorities to look away.
    Is it still cash laundering, or are cards somehow involved now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    The only by election yesterday.

    Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.

    Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
    Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
    LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
    Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)

    No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.

    Turnout 40.5 (+7)

    Reform Gain.

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
    But considering Reform got 45.1% from zero, the Tories only dropping 2.1% is frankly amazing.

    Greens to LD is interesting too. Not quite alligning wth expectations.
    Not really. Neither Green nor LD voters will touch reform with a barge pole, and Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse that has sat on any reform of our political system for my entire lifetime. As a signed up LibDem, I’ve voted Green now for each of the last three GEs.
    And you still think yourself a LibDem?

    Plenty who will vote Tory knowing it will be alost cause, rather than going for a "winning here" vote for Reform.
    If the LDs can find a decent candidate, I’d be up for backing him or her next time. But the reality is that my seat looks like being a battle between the Tory MP and Reform, neither of whom I can vote for, so the only hope is that a centre left candidate can come through the middle. And right now that looks impossible for either Labour or LibDem.
    Several of the MRPs have East Wight going Green, and Vix does seem an excellent candidate. Presumably in West Wight the best "stop Reform candidate" is the Labour incumbent.
This discussion has been closed.