No berths, galley or fixed toilet? That would seem not to be class compliant (inshore minimum 2 fitted out berths, galley and fixed porta-potti) so Mr Offord has been cheating.
Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.
The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'
He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.
He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".
"And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?
"Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."
Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.
He hopes others will still be willing to follow.
"Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."
There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.
Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.
Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:
1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers. 2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words. 3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.
Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.
if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
Hmm. I was an MP for 13 years and had various interesting Select Committee jobs, and was PPS to Malcolm Wicks, who was careful to involve me in everything. Despite that I struggle to think of specific laws or practices that changed as a result of my efforts. On the other hand, it's easy to think of elections in which I was one of a few hundred people affecting the result, holding the seat against expectations. I never encountered any loonies or even got sworn at - the most was a firm "not interested". Canvassing in all subsequent elections has produced the same pattern, and I'm not convinced that mindless aggression to a stranger on your doorstep is that common. I never consciously lied, though I certainly concentrated on themes which I thought productive. I was able to help lots of individuals with their problems.
In the same way, I've never tried to disguise my identity here, and I can't remember anyone being rude (except for one poster who is rude to everyone). One or two people are scornful, but that's normal democracy.
Ultimately the test is whether you think that being part of a smallish group affecting things is worthwhile, even if you don't star yourself. Given the interest in everyone here in taking part in elections at all, where the probability of making a difference is small, I assume most of us would agree it's worthwhile. Would we suffer seriously under an autocracy if we kept our heads down? Probably not, but it'd be a rubbish way to help run society around us.
So I do think it's worth getting involved, and encourage everyone to do so. A life spent entirely indifferent to ytour surroundings is missing something important.
I too have enjoyed my political roles, and when younger considered the parliamentary route, which back then wasn't that practicable given my party and personal circumstances. But the more I saw an MPs job from the inside, the less I fancied it anyway. The most extraordinary thing is the dichotomy between the local presence - in your own patch you're considered someone important, almost a celebrity, even though getting anything done locally inevitably involves the council or other agencies doing it, since the MP has no actual power or authority other than the soft powers of influencing and shaming - whereas in parliament, where people would think you do have power - the seemingly responsible position of MP is, in all the parties and particularly the major ones - reduced to a position of mostly being a micro-managed impotent grunt, which no relatively senior person in the corporate world would tolerate. You're told where to be, how to vote, what to say and not say, and fed patsy questions to ask, and if you step significantly out of line by thinking for yourself, you're thrown into the wilderness and most likely your political future is over. And are dealing, with your team, with a vast pile of routine correspondence over almost all of which you have no influence and are simply a letterbox passing your constituent's representation to an official and the official's response back to the constituent. Yes, there are occasional opportunities to make a difference at a key committee or via private member legislation, but those come along only rarely such that even very long serving MPs struggle to point to very much where they've managed to make a difference. The most satisfying thing is probably resolving some resident's intractable problem tangling with officialdom, but then you get plenty of opportunity to do that as a councillor.
Being a council leader would be much more powerful than most backbench MPs.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
It's not the solution to all problems, but it is to quite a few!
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
Surely before council homes were sold off, retirees paying rent was par for the course anyway.
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
Surely before council homes were sold off, retirees paying rent was par for the course anyway.
Retirees paying very affordable rents with full security of tenure was.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
Wes Streeting's small majority is overplayed. Any MP taking over after the locals will anticipate three years as Prime Minister before the next election – longer or the same as Brown, May, Boris, Truss, Rishi and, in this scenario, Keir Starmer.
And if after those three years, Labour loses the general election, as is currently forecast, then the size of the leader's personal majority is irrelevant, doubly so given the modern trend of main party leaders stepping down immediately after election defeat. Either way there will be a new party leader.
So by all means oppose Wes Streeting but find better grounds for doing so. Like the obvious political one that Wes is on the right of the party but almost any conceivable opponent and most MPs are on the soft left.
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
Surely before council homes were sold off, retirees paying rent was par for the course anyway.
Retirees paying very affordable rents with full security of tenure was.
The tenure is, not sure about affordable rents though.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
Wes Streeting's small majority is overplayed. Any MP taking over after the locals will anticipate three years as Prime Minister before the next election – longer or the same as Brown, May, Boris, Truss, Rishi and, in this scenario, Keir Starmer.
And if after those three years, Labour loses the general election, as is currently forecast, then the size of the leader's personal majority is irrelevant, doubly so given the modern trend of main party leaders stepping down immediately after election defeat. Either way there will be a new party leader.
So by all means oppose Wes Streeting but find better grounds for doing so. Like the obvious political one that Wes is on the right of the party but almost any conceivable opponent and most MPs are on the soft left.
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
Surely before council homes were sold off, retirees paying rent was par for the course anyway.
Retirees paying very affordable rents with full security of tenure was.
The tenure is, not sure about affordable rents though.
It certainly used to be that social housing rents were below private sector rents. Not sure it is the case with housing associations.
The fact that Jenny Jones has to post this speaks volumes:
Jenny Jones @GreenJennyJones I've been in @TheGreenParty since 1988 and in all those long years our members have worked incredibly hard to highlight and explain the v real dangers of #ClimateChange for everyone, esp the poorest. But also to offer the fast fading opportunities for our safety and security. 1/2
Plans to help the poorest have always been part of our manifesto. It's obvious that a more equal society is stronger and more able to face the challenges.
We are fighting as hard as ever on environmental issues. Protecting people is fundamental to protecting our planet.
Solar update - yesterday was our first full day of generation - we generated over 30kWh which was more than 3x our own electricity consumption. I would recommend anyone with the financial and logistical ability to go for it.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.
The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'
He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.
He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".
"And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?
"Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."
Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.
He hopes others will still be willing to follow.
"Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."
There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.
Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.
Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:
1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers. 2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words. 3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.
Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.
if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
On the "dissonance"
Back when Major was coming up in politics, young people got involved in politics as activists. The expectation was that they would build a part time, volunteer "career" in politics. Until (generally) they achieved a level of success and stature in their real world jobs/occupations that made getting elected a practical possibility.
In the world where most seats were safe Tory or Labour yes, for the Tories barristers, solicitors, businessmen or bankers, for Labour journalists, human rights lawyers or senior union or charity officials would stand for maybe a hopeless seat then a safe seat and be made politically for life (if they were really high flyers or senior SPADs sometimes they would get a safe seat straight away). Marginal seats always were more likely to attract professional councillors and researchers for MPs and now of course with few seats safe for the 2 main parties more will have to be near full time professional politicians to hold or gain a Conservative or Labour seat. Much as most LD MPs tended to have been ex councillors or full time politicians before election, like most Green MPs.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
Did Labour have a particular monopoly on journalist MPs? In recent years it's been the Tory variety who caused all the havoc.
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
Depends. Do we view the threat level as a mere assessment of probability, or does it have to be on specific intelligence? On the former it would be justified, on the latter not.
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
Indeed, even I would vote for Streeting over a far left Independent if I lived in his seat
From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."
Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
Is that really at a level of persecution?
It very much depends on your definition of "persecution", and on your definition of "Christian". It is a spectrum, and needs thought.
There's a fair bit of distortion of persecution reports to meet political agendas, and there is also a level at which "persecution" blends into "discrimination".
What would you call the following?
Criminal punishment for conversion from Islam, or practicing Christianity at home? Arson attacks on Orthodox churches in Egypt? Russian imprisonment of Jehovah's witnesses? Hegseth applying his particular 'Christian' values to Christians in the armed forces who do not meet his criteria eg he sacked his Chief of Chaplains, and expelled some self-identified Christians as part of his wider purges. Campaigns by secularists in the UK that the right of Christians (or others) in the NHS to refuse to take part in abortion procedures be abolished? Same sex marriage not being fully equal in the Church of England? Being prevented from protesting outside an abortion clinic?
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
Indeed, even I would vote for Streeting over a far left Independent if I lived in his seat
The only way I see him losing is if the NHS goes pear shaped and some prominent centre left doctor stood against him as an Indy, with or without white suit. And there’s no sign of any such thing this far out.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
Indeed, even I would vote for Streeting over a far left Independent if I lived in his seat
Well he’s regularly accused of being a Tory, by his own side, after all!
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
The joint ticket of Darren Jones and Healey is being discussed mainly by friends of Darren Jones, one imagines. What is his experience? Bag handler for the widely derided Rachel Reeves and now for Keir Starmer, and it's not like anyone is applauding the Number 10 operation right now.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
No, we're in a moment. That can, and probably will change.
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
Depends. Do we view the threat level as a mere assessment of probability, or does it have to be on specific intelligence? On the former it would be justified, on the latter not.
According to various rumours, there has been an uptick in people, who may or may not be associated with the IRGC, using online recruitment and payment to get attacks carried out. This includes trying to radicalise people.
From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."
Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
Is that really at a level of persecution?
It very much depends on your definition of "persecution", and on your definition of "Christian". It is a spectrum, and needs thought.
There's a fair bit of distortion of persecution reports to meet political agendas, and there is also a level at which "persecution" blends into "discrimination".
What would you call the following?
Criminal punishment for conversion from Islam, or practicing Christianity at home? Arson attacks on Orthodox churches in Egypt? Russian imprisonment of Jehovah's witnesses? Hegseth applying his particular 'Christian' values to Christians in the armed forces who do not meet his criteria eg he sacked his Chief of Chaplains, and expelled some self-identified Christians as part of his wider purges. Campaigns by secularists in the UK that the right of Christians (or others) in the NHS to refuse to take part in abortion procedures be abolished? Same sex marriage not being fully equal in the Church of England? Being prevented from protesting outside an abortion clinic?
Persecution in a faith based context is being prevented from freely worshipping and attacks on places of worship, everything else above is merely a different view on a social issue
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
No, we're in a moment. That can, and probably will change.
Only if Labour get a new more electable leader than Starmer before the next general election
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
No, because it will serve as stimulation to a number of other random mental health patients. The difference between them and cold ideologues is always going to be a bit blurred.
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !
At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !
The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .
How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .
Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.
The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.
Fun fun fun.
One of the items on the Today programme this morning was the warning from Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara (one of the world's biggest fertiliser manifacturers) that we are going to lose 10 billion meals a week because of the shortage of fertilisers due to the Iran crisis.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.
Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.
I hope it doesn't cause offence.
I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.
Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.
Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.
A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.
When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."
Words can kill.
This is obviously true.
But if we extended that standard into the criminal law you’d have to arrest half the boomers posting on Facebook (and 90% of those posting about cyclists).
There are already thousands of posts a day which are already illegal (clear incitement) and aren’t investigated by the police. And yet we still have a “hurty words” narrative.
In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !
At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !
The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .
How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .
Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.
The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.
Fun fun fun.
One of the items on the Today programme this morning was the warning from Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara (one of the world's biggest fertiliser manifacturers) that we are going to lose 10 billion meals a week because of the shortage of fertilisers due to the Iran crisis.
Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.
Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.
In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.
My own personal private thesis on Reform in Scotland is that their impact will be limited because the kind of parochial, simplistic low-information types that form the backbone of their base elsewhere are, in Scotland, in the SNP camp already. That leaves them with avowedly Unionist, parochial, simplistic low-information types, which is a narrower pool.
I have no evidence for this, only my own prejudices.
This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.
Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.
I hope it doesn't cause offence.
I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.
Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.
Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.
A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.
When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."
Words can kill.
This is obviously true.
But if we extended that standard into the criminal law you’d have to arrest half the boomers posting on Facebook (and 90% of those posting about cyclists).
There are already thousands of posts a day which are already illegal (clear incitement) and aren’t investigated by the police. And yet we still have a “hurty words” narrative.
It's almost as if - Just because something is legal doesn't mean we should do it.
But that leads to personal responsibility - which is obviously wrong think.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
The joint ticket of Darren Jones and Healey is being discussed mainly by friends of Darren Jones, one imagines. What is his experience? Bag handler for the widely derided Rachel Reeves and now for Keir Starmer, and it's not like anyone is applauding the Number 10 operation right now.
The fallout from these elections already looks like it’s going to be substantial. I hope everyone’s got the popcorn ready for next weekend.
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
The ONS currently thinks the only growth in population between now and 2034 will be from net immigration. Without that net immigration, the population would decline 450k, and it only steepens from there on in.
If we actually went to net zero immigration, pressure on housing would probably start to unwind quite quickly as the population starts falling - you don't need many more houses than families wanting them for prices to start dropping substantially. We're perhaps a million houses short now - between building out everything that's already got planning, and that 450k population drop, we'd probably already be into oversupply by 2034.
I'm increasingly of the view that actually the nimbys are right, at least regarding housing (industrial premises and infrastructure are a different problem). We don't actually need much more housing, we just need to stop artificially expanding the population.
It will happen anyway sooner or later unless someone solves the replacement rate issue, so why keep throwing nasty up Barratt wonders to house immigrants? In 25-50 years time are going to recreate chunks of abandoned Chicago, as no-one will want them during a time of housing over-supply.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
I agree. His Blairite Mandy baggage is the main problem he has, not his marginal seat. He's my bet fwiw. I'm long at (I think) about 8.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
The joint ticket of Darren Jones and Healey is being discussed mainly by friends of Darren Jones, one imagines. What is his experience? Bag handler for the widely derided Rachel Reeves and now for Keir Starmer, and it's not like anyone is applauding the Number 10 operation right now.
The fallout from these elections already looks like it’s going to be substantial. I hope everyone’s got the popcorn ready for next weekend.
The *shifts* in markets for the next election could be of value - there will be a thundering herd of bettors using the results of the locals as reasons to bet.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.
Is it theoretically possible ? Of course.
But 50/1 is probably about right.
I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
That's PM Wes Streeting b*gg*r*d then.
To be fair to Streeting his seat has always been marginal, he gained it from the Tories in 2015
As I have been saying recently, he’ll win it by miles IMhO. Neither Tory, LibDem or Green are in any way competitive in the seat and I suspect the pro-Gaza social media Indy who did so well last time will prove to be a flash in the pan. And whatever his strengths and weaknesses, he is a good ground campaigner and has a strong team behind him. In 2024 Streeting was forbidden from doing any local campaigning at all; HQ sent him elsewhere, and even the odd day he did spent locally led to a ticking off from Labour Towers. That’s one problem he won’t have, next time. And of course he’s a lot more ‘famous’ now, and there’s plenty of evidence that voters do like having a prominent well known MP
I agree. His Blairite Mandy baggage is the main problem he has, not his marginal seat. He's my bet fwiw. I'm long at (I think) about 8.
I remember talking to him early in the 2017 campaign, when he really did think he might lose, as so engrained in his anti-Corbynism was he that he expected Labours campaign to be a catastrophic shambles. I told him then he’d get back because, campaign or not, the demographics were on his side as his area moved younger, more tenanted and more ethnic. In the event Corbyn’s storming campaign landed him a majority of 10,000
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
The joint ticket of Darren Jones and Healey is being discussed mainly by friends of Darren Jones, one imagines. What is his experience? Bag handler for the widely derided Rachel Reeves and now for Keir Starmer, and it's not like anyone is applauding the Number 10 operation right now.
The fallout from these elections already looks like it’s going to be substantial. I hope everyone’s got the popcorn ready for next weekend.
The *shifts* in markets for the next election could be of value - there will be a thundering herd of bettors using the results of the locals as reasons to bet.
Laying Reform and Greens for majority and for most seats at next GE is likely the smart bet
In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !
At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !
The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .
How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .
Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.
The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.
Fun fun fun.
Invest in companies exploring non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing.
Non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing:
Please invest in me.
The fun one is adding (enhanced) nitrogen fixing via GM to crops.
I know this is politicalbetting.com, not memestockbetting.com, but I would be genuinely interested in pointers to investable companies doing this kind of stuff...
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
The ONS currently thinks the only growth in population between now and 2034 will be from net immigration. Without that net immigration, the population would decline 450k, and it only steepens from there on in.
If we actually went to net zero immigration, pressure on housing would probably start to unwind quite quickly as the population starts falling - you don't need many more houses than families wanting them for prices to start dropping substantially. We're perhaps a million houses short now - between building out everything that's already got planning, and that 450k population drop, we'd probably already be into oversupply by 2034.
I'm increasingly of the view that actually the nimbys are right, at least regarding housing (industrial premises and infrastructure are a different problem). We don't actually need much more housing, we just need to stop artificially expanding the population.
It will happen anyway sooner or later unless someone solves the replacement rate issue, so why keep throwing nasty up Barratt wonders to house immigrants? In 25-50 years time are going to recreate chunks of abandoned Chicago, as no-one will want them during a time of housing over-supply.
I don’t think that’s true at all. Most of the housing pressure has not come from population growth, as demonstrated in Scotland (population up 11% since 2000, houses up 18%, prices up 205%)
I think there will be sustained pressure because relatively young immigrants, living in cramped conditions, will (hopefully) develop some wealth and live in multiple houses. And then you’ve got divorce, an ageing population…
(There’s a massive residual in that 200% price growth that isn’t explained by demographics, but that’s another debate…)
Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
The 2050-60 problem will be people starting to retire who have spent their entire life in rental properties because they never have had a chance to buy a home.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
The ONS currently thinks the only growth in population between now and 2034 will be from net immigration. Without that net immigration, the population would decline 450k, and it only steepens from there on in.
If we actually went to net zero immigration, pressure on housing would probably start to unwind quite quickly as the population starts falling - you don't need many more houses than families wanting them for prices to start dropping substantially. We're perhaps a million houses short now - between building out everything that's already got planning, and that 450k population drop, we'd probably already be into oversupply by 2034.
I'm increasingly of the view that actually the nimbys are right, at least regarding housing (industrial premises and infrastructure are a different problem). We don't actually need much more housing, we just need to stop artificially expanding the population.
It will happen anyway sooner or later unless someone solves the replacement rate issue, so why keep throwing nasty up Barratt wonders to house immigrants? In 25-50 years time are going to recreate chunks of abandoned Chicago, as no-one will want them during a time of housing over-supply.
I don’t think that’s true at all. Most of the housing pressure has not come from population growth, as demonstrated in Scotland (population up 11% since 2000, houses up 18%, prices up 205%)
I think there will be sustained pressure because relatively young immigrants, living in cramped conditions, will (hopefully) develop some wealth and live in multiple houses. And then you’ve got divorce, an ageing population…
(There’s a massive residual in that 200% price growth that isn’t explained by demographics, but that’s another debate…)
Housings relative attractiveness as an investment, our relatively low level of property taxation, and our openness to foreign investors, are at least as important as population and numbers of new homes. And the increasing proportion of single person households has been as important as the total number of people
To put current events in some sort of perspective, from 1968 onwards about 3500 people were killed as a consequence of the Northern Ireland conflict. Since 2000 about 150 people have been killed in the UK by terrorist attacks. There have been over 15,000 homicides in all in England and Wales since 2000.
Each one of these attacks it is of course a tragedy but we need to keep it in perspective. Everybody jumps up and down and says we must do "something". But what? We are never going to be able to prevent terror attacks carried out by random individuals and it is useless to pretend that we can. That is the world we live in unfortunately.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.
Is it theoretically possible ? Of course.
But 50/1 is probably about right.
I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
They've madebillions to invest in him getting the Presidency.
But by 2028 I think the Trump brand will be on a par with dog shit.
The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.
The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.
A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.
I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
While I think the triple lock is stupid - it makes no sense to say that pensioner income must necessarily go up faster than everyone else's - I strongly support a non-means tested pension - not least because if you means test a pension it then makes no sense to save for a pension.
Yes, this. Private pension saving will collapse if not only is it locked up in a way that risks a large portion of it being exposed to IHT (already on the way) but also all net income tax advantages are outweighed by the clawback of a means-tested state pension.
This stuff is so fundamental and obvious. There was broad consensus about this when the new state pension was introduced. People like Blair who seek to overturn all this are an embarrassment.
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).
Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
Phrasing the problem in terms of “corruption” plays into a Trumpian message of cleaning up the swamp etc. If you say the problem is the politicians and we need to kick them out, that works when you’re not in power, but what happens when you are in power? Were I American, I’d be drawn more to an Abughazaleh or Ocasio-Cortez message, who are calling for a more radical change in the system… although what’s radical left in the US is pretty mainstream in UK terms. (AOC’s radical proposal for maternity leave is that people should get 3 months paid leave (both sexes), which would be less than the UK currently has.)
The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.
The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.
A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.
I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
When you talk about upper limits for pensionable age - the next fun one, is varying by occupations.
People can do stuff at desks until they drop - an architect I know has retired about 3 times and now does volunteer architecture for charity, way into his 80s.
Not sure I can see too many people working laying railway track at 70+ years old,
This has long been the case with manual workers, for example brickies. When I worked at the Jobcentre you would find the sensible ones kept themselves fit, gained more specialist skills that youngsrers didn't have, and/or planned a route into something less physical such as supervisory roles, builders merchants or training. Those who didn't, were pretty f***ed by 50.
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
It’s a powerful ad. I’m not certain I entirely believe it. He blames corruption for America’s ills and there is undoubtedly industrial-scale corruption under Trump, but much of what he’s talking about isn’t corruption per se, it’s the legal influence of wealth within a US system of ultra-capitalism, IYSWIM.
That's a terrific piece, it really is. He's a seriously impressive guy.
I really like the way that he has no hesitation in calling out the Democrats too. Its almost non partisan, or if it is partisan it is for the average American.
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.
Is it theoretically possible ? Of course.
But 50/1 is probably about right.
I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
2028 though like 2008 might be the best chance for Democrats running for president for a generation
What an extraordinary win. From zero votes to almost half the votes (and with a decent turnout for a local)
There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
My gut is that they’ll overperform in English councils, but I suspect they might underperform vs Plaid in Wales.
Depends, they are neck and neck with Plaid in Wales and as it is PR there won't be the anti Reform tactical voting some council seats in England might see with FPTP
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).
Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.
Probably. The link to terrorism seems at least as plausible as widespread antisemitism and it has been previously suggested the mentally ill are easy recruits for suicide missions. The series of attacks in Golders Green might suggest an external protagonist who does not know about Jewish populations elsewhere in London.
But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
Interesting that Green vote down in rural part of the world.
Polanski not quite the cup of tea in those parts?
Well the Corbynite, pro Gaza, open borders, fuck landlords, wealth tax now, men in dresses are women, hard left agenda doesn’t go down well in rural England.
Solar update - yesterday was our first full day of generation - we generated over 30kWh which was more than 3x our own electricity consumption. I would recommend anyone with the financial and logistical ability to go for it.
The question I always ask: What is the projected payback period on your investment?
For industry, if an energy efficiency project has a payback greater than 2 or 3 years, then typically they aren't interested.
The madness is everywhere. Europe is heading into darkness
🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."
Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”
Ossoff is a very good campaigner (and far from the only one the new generation of Democrats have). Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
I don't think he's running for president this cycle. Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
Georgia is a swing state, if Ossoff won the presidency the Democrats would almost certainly hold his Georgia Senate seat anyway
He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.
Is it theoretically possible ? Of course.
But 50/1 is probably about right.
I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
2028 though like 2008 might be the best chance for Democrats running for president for a generation
Ossoff is 39 and will be 41 in election year. It's a bit young for American presidents. Clinton and Obama were 46 and 57 at the start of their terms, and of course there have been many older ones since.
Solar update - yesterday was our first full day of generation - we generated over 30kWh which was more than 3x our own electricity consumption. I would recommend anyone with the financial and logistical ability to go for it.
When is your estimated break even? (My friend was quoted about years, but thinks it will be six).
Interesting that Green vote down in rural part of the world.
Polanski not quite the cup of tea in those parts?
Well the Corbynite, pro Gaza, open borders, fuck landlords, wealth tax now, men in dresses are women, hard left agenda doesn’t go down well in rural England.
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).
Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.
Probably. The link to terrorism seems at least as plausible as widespread antisemitism and it has been previously suggested the mentally ill are easy recruits for suicide missions. The series of attacks in Golders Green might suggest an external protagonist who does not know about Jewish populations elsewhere in London.
But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
I regard Southport as terrorism, the state does not. It seems to regard Golder's Green as terrorism (yet presumably formed that lacking evidence other than the targets).
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
Generally victorious woman leaders come from the right not the left
Apart from Thatcher and victorious is a silly description, what other women from the right are you referring to
It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.
Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.
In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.
My own personal private thesis on Reform in Scotland is that their impact will be limited because the kind of parochial, simplistic low-information types that form the backbone of their base elsewhere are, in Scotland, in the SNP camp already. That leaves them with avowedly Unionist, parochial, simplistic low-information types, which is a narrower pool.
I have no evidence for this, only my own prejudices.
English nationalism shouldn't have any currency in Scotland so in principle Reform is a pure racism play here. They lack the plausible layer of nationalist respectability as they have in England. Which should mean the people voting for them don't care much about Scotland's status and could just as easily be former SNP supporters or former Tory supporters
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
So,they should put Angela Rayner in charge purely because she’s a woman.
She’d be their Liz Truss. She’s another clown high on their own supply. She wouldn’t bring me back to labour.
This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.
Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.
I hope it doesn't cause offence.
I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.
Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.
Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.
A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.
When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."
Words can kill.
This is obviously true.
But if we extended that standard into the criminal law you’d have to arrest half the boomers posting on Facebook (and 90% of those posting about cyclists).
There are already thousands of posts a day which are already illegal (clear incitement) and aren’t investigated by the police. And yet we still have a “hurty words” narrative.
That is because too often the Police are indeed going for the 'hurty words' rather than the real incitement. They do this because it is low hanging fruit, easy to get a clear up on and looks good on the stats. Most of the time you don't even have to bother with courts. Just a Police Caution. Far more difficult to prove real incitement by people who really are inciting.
This is what is wrong with the hate speech laws. They do exactly the opposite of what we want. The give the police lots of easy targets who are really doing bugger all beyond expressing an opinion the PTB do not like and allow them to ignore the more difficut but more dangerous behaviours.
Is it a mistake to have raised the terror threat on the back of the Golders Green attack, given it was a random mental patient with a history of wild knife attacks on the loose, rather than a politically motivated terrorist?
How isn't it a politically motivated terrorist? He seems to have travelled to Golders Green deliberately to stab Jews. (He has also been charged with another offence in Southwark earlier the same day, he was some way away).
Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.
Probably. The link to terrorism seems at least as plausible as widespread antisemitism and it has been previously suggested the mentally ill are easy recruits for suicide missions. The series of attacks in Golders Green might suggest an external protagonist who does not know about Jewish populations elsewhere in London.
But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
I regard Southport as terrorism, the state does not. It seems to regard Golder's Green as terrorism (yet presumably formed that lacking evidence other than the targets).
Owen Jones and friends are STILL wanking on about the poor Somalian knifeman (already convicted of almost murdering a policeman years ago) who unfortunately got kicked in the head by coppers after nearly slaughtering too Jews
They are most upset on the Somalian’s behalf, and demanding answers from the Met. Weirdly they don’t seem very upset about the two stabbed Jews in hospital
Interesting that Green vote down in rural part of the world.
Polanski not quite the cup of tea in those parts?
Well the Corbynite, pro Gaza, open borders, fuck landlords, wealth tax now, men in dresses are women, hard left agenda doesn’t go down well in rural England.
It’s not far from where my niece lives.
I am mildly surprised Reform did so well.
"Independents" transferring?
Maybe
Independents re usually NIMBY types. I’d expect them to go Green, or even worse, Lib Dem not Reform.
Just goes to show. You think you know somewhere !!!!
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
Anyone but Ange, or anyone without a vaj? Labour has managed not to have a woman leader yet, fifty years after the Tories first did. Other than a couple of times when the deputy (a position which it seems it is OK for a woman to hold) stepped in to cover a vacancy.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
So,they should put Angela Rayner in charge purely because she’s a woman.
She’d be their Liz Truss. She’s another clown high on their own supply. She wouldn’t bring me back to labour.
Not at all, I'm just questioning their motivation.
I'm not sure I can think of any current prominent Labour politician that would make a good PM.
Comments
That would seem not to be class compliant (inshore minimum 2 fitted out berths, galley and fixed porta-potti) so Mr Offord has been cheating.
That is the sort of problem we need to fix now by building homes
And if after those three years, Labour loses the general election, as is currently forecast, then the size of the leader's personal majority is irrelevant, doubly so given the modern trend of main party leaders stepping down immediately after election defeat. Either way there will be a new party leader.
So by all means oppose Wes Streeting but find better grounds for doing so. Like the obvious political one that Wes is on the right of the party but almost any conceivable opponent and most MPs are on the soft left.
That’s four times in 10 days.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2050136412544966739
There’s now apparently nothing left of the site at all,
Jenny Jones
@GreenJennyJones
I've been in @TheGreenParty since 1988 and in all those long years our members have worked incredibly hard to highlight and explain the v real dangers of #ClimateChange for everyone, esp the poorest. But also to offer the fast fading opportunities for our safety and security. 1/2
enny Jones
@GreenJennyJones
Plans to help the poorest have always been part of our manifesto. It's obvious that a more equal society is stronger and more able to face the challenges.
We are fighting as hard as ever on environmental issues.
Protecting people is fundamental to protecting our planet.
https://x.com/GreenJennyJones/status/2049737535618724276
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20
'Labour ministers and MPs have launched an “anyone but Ange” campaign in an attempt to keep Angela Rayner out of No 10 after the local elections
The former deputy prime minister is considering mounting a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer after next week’s local elections, depending on how poorly Labour performs across the country
Her ambitions are alarming some MPs who fear the party could end up “sleepwalking” into a Rayner premiership if she gets enough early momentum behind her
They are concerned that if the former deputy prime minister gets enough support among MPs to reach the final two she would easily win thanks to her popularity with the grassroots Labour membership
“A lot of us are saying ‘anyone but Ange’,” a minister said. Another Labour MP noted “a big … ‘anyone but Ange’ sentiment”.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has also long been considered a frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, there are doubts about whether he could beat Rayner thanks to his image within the party as a Blairite and the perception he was close to Lord Mandelson
This conclusion has led some MPs to suggest alternatives. A joint ticket of Darren Jones, the Cabinet Office minister, and John Healey, the defence secretary, is being discussed as an option to stop Rayner'
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2050098943372009638?s=20
There's a fair bit of distortion of persecution reports to meet political agendas, and there is also a level at which "persecution" blends into "discrimination".
What would you call the following?
Criminal punishment for conversion from Islam, or practicing Christianity at home?
Arson attacks on Orthodox churches in Egypt?
Russian imprisonment of Jehovah's witnesses?
Hegseth applying his particular 'Christian' values to Christians in the armed forces who do not meet his criteria eg he sacked his Chief of Chaplains, and expelled some self-identified Christians as part of his wider purges.
Campaigns by secularists in the UK that the right of Christians (or others) in the NHS to refuse to take part in abortion procedures be abolished?
Same sex marriage not being fully equal in the Church of England?
Being prevented from protesting outside an abortion clinic?
That can, and probably will change.
Is so, this would explain the reaction.
Jones at least has something about him.
Who in the post Trump GOP can even begin to compete ?
"You aren't the problem. Neither are your fellow Americans."
https://x.com/SarahLongwell25/status/2049819710171054100
But if we extended that standard into the criminal law you’d have to arrest half the boomers posting on Facebook (and 90% of those posting about cyclists).
There are already thousands of posts a day which are already illegal (clear incitement) and aren’t investigated by the police. And yet we still have a “hurty words” narrative.
Brace.
Malvern Hills DC Tenbury.
Reform 687 45.1% (NEW)
Con 461 30.3% (-2.1)
LD 193 12.7% (NEW)
Grn 183 12.0% (-10.1)
No Malvern Hills Indy (45.6) this time.
Turnout 40.5 (+7)
Reform Gain.
I have no evidence for this, only my own prejudices.
But that leads to personal responsibility - which is obviously wrong think.
Never say never, of course, but it would damage his authenticity - he's been explicit that he won't - and would be a horrible decision regarding a Senate seat which the Democrats need to hold.
I expect Zack is having it translated into British English as we speak
https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2049021999482102012
Polanski not quite the cup of tea in those parts?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/LMZWJ5DONsY
40-seconds clip from The Rest is History. It was Jim Callaghan btw.
If we actually went to net zero immigration, pressure on housing would probably start to unwind quite quickly as the population starts falling - you don't need many more houses than families wanting them for prices to start dropping substantially. We're perhaps a million houses short now - between building out everything that's already got planning, and that 450k population drop, we'd probably already be into oversupply by 2034.
I'm increasingly of the view that actually the nimbys are right, at least regarding housing (industrial premises and infrastructure are a different problem). We don't actually need much more housing, we just need to stop artificially expanding the population.
It will happen anyway sooner or later unless someone solves the replacement rate issue, so why keep throwing nasty up Barratt wonders to house immigrants? In 25-50 years time are going to recreate chunks of abandoned Chicago, as no-one will want them during a time of housing over-supply.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/04/russian-cloaks-launch-schedule-after-spaceport-falls-in-ukraines-sights
Ukraine is starting to go after Russia's orbital launch capability.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5845768-ossoff-not-running-2028/
He has two young daughters; he might not get it even if he ran, since it will be a crowded field; he's plenty young enough to wait, and build his reputation.
Is it theoretically possible ?
Of course.
But 50/1 is probably about right.
I'd put some money on Don Jnr getting the GOP nomination instead.
I think there will be sustained pressure because relatively young immigrants, living in cramped conditions, will (hopefully) develop some wealth and live in multiple houses. And then you’ve got divorce, an ageing population…
(There’s a massive residual in that 200% price growth that isn’t explained by demographics, but that’s another debate…)
https://x.com/columeastwood/status/2050160780943716776
But by 2028 I think the Trump brand will be on a par with dog shit.
This stuff is so fundamental and obvious. There was broad consensus about this when the new state pension was introduced. People like Blair who seek to overturn all this are an embarrassment.
Traditional Labour seems deeply conservative in this regard, as are I suspect some of their people from ethnic minority communities
"Kemi, bloody Kemi"
Schizophrenics with a history of wild knife attacks are likely to be easier to recruit to your cause.
There’s been lots of speculation that Reform will underperform expectations on May 7. The opposite could also occur
I really like the way that he has no hesitation in calling out the Democrats too. Its almost non partisan, or if it is partisan it is for the average American.
But it would be stupid for the authorities not to adopt a belt and braces approach until more details are known. Basically we want fewer attacks, and preferably none, whatever the motive.
It’s not far from where my niece lives.
I am mildly surprised Reform did so well.
For industry, if an energy efficiency project has a payback greater than 2 or 3 years, then typically they aren't interested.
🇳🇴 “A Syrian migrant found guilty of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed in Tromsø will serve just SIX MONTHS in prison after the sentencing court ruled that the attacker had a "low IQ" and "a reduced understanding of reality."
Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found to have raped the girl in September 2024, less than a year after arriving in Norway from Syria.”
https://x.com/rmxnews/status/2049829265277878701?s=46
It is certainly true that the field is overwhelmed with dangerous war mongering men, even some professing to be Christian who are the very antithesis of the teachings of Christ
She’d be their Liz Truss. She’s another clown high on their own supply. She wouldn’t bring me back to labour.
This is what is wrong with the hate speech laws. They do exactly the opposite of what we want. The give the police lots of easy targets who are really doing bugger all beyond expressing an opinion the PTB do not like and allow them to ignore the more difficut but more dangerous behaviours.
They are most upset on the Somalian’s behalf, and demanding answers from the Met. Weirdly they don’t seem very upset about the two stabbed Jews in hospital
Independents re usually NIMBY types. I’d expect them to go Green, or even worse, Lib Dem not Reform.
Just goes to show. You think you know somewhere !!!!
I'm not sure I can think of any current prominent Labour politician that would make a good PM.