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Holyrood election – seats to watch – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,174
edited May 1 in General
Holyrood election – seats to watch – politicalbetting.com

With less than a week until polls open for the elections on 7th May, now is a good time to take a more detailed look at some of the seats to look out for during the Election Day count in Scotland.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,448
    Many thanks, very interesting.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    First?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Third like the Greens
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    FTP
    isam said:

    This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.

    Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.

    I hope it doesn't cause offence.

    I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
    In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.

    Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.

    Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.

    A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.

    When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."

    Words can kill.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    We missed an obvious header title -

    "Seven Days in May", to discuss the plotting against the PM.

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    edited May 1
    Duplicate
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    OT

    Interesting analysis. I am being very circumspect with bets on this election - with massive apparent support for the challenger parties, the polling is much more risky than normal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,434
    To put current events in some sort of perspective, from 1968 onwards about 3500 people were killed as a consequence of the Northern Ireland conflict. Since 2000 about 150 people have been killed in the UK by terrorist attacks. There have been over 15,000 homicides in all in England and Wales since 2000.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420

    We missed an obvious header title -

    "Seven Days in May", to discuss the plotting against the PM.

    An interesting week with Teresa.

    Not Theresa. No. That would be just wrong...

    DONALD Trump’s White House staff referred to Theresa May as a veteran porn star after spelling her name wrong THREE TIMES in official documents.

    The dropping of that all important ‘h’ meant glamour model ‘Teresa May’ was due to take part in a ‘bilateral meeting’ instead.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2722238/who-is-teresa-may-porn-actress-who-starred-in-the-prodigys-smack-my-b-up-video-all-you-need-to-know/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    If the SNP are heading for a majority they will need to win most of these seats, gaining the borders seats and Eastwood from the Tories and Dumbarton from Labour in particular. If the SNP fail to win those seats and lose Strahkelvin and Bearsden to the LDs they are doing worse than last time and if they also lose Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform may even not have enough seats for a majority with Reform
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420
    edited May 1

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,930

    We missed an obvious header title -

    "Seven Days in May", to discuss the plotting against the PM.

    An interesting week with Teresa.

    Not Theresa. No. That would be just wrong...

    DONALD Trump’s White House staff referred to Theresa May as a veteran porn star after spelling her name wrong THREE TIMES in official documents.

    The dropping of that all important ‘h’ meant glamour model ‘Teresa May’ was due to take part in a ‘bilateral meeting’ instead.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2722238/who-is-teresa-may-porn-actress-who-starred-in-the-prodigys-smack-my-b-up-video-all-you-need-to-know/
    Be fair. At least their comeback plan isn't abolishing every single jury trial and immediately imposing digital and physical ID cards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920
    HYUFD said:

    If the SNP are heading for a majority they will need to win most of these seats, gaining the borders seats and Eastwood from the Tories and Dumbarton from Labour in particular. If the SNP fail to win those seats and lose Strahkelvin and Bearsden to the LDs they are doing worse than last time and if they also lose Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform may even not have enough seats for a majority with Reform

    The SNP looking for a majority with Reform is presumably a product of your fevered imagination.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    FPT
    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,269

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    Why not write a letter to #10 if it makes you feel better. Or place a bet ....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    HYUFD said:

    If the SNP are heading for a majority they will need to win most of these seats, gaining the borders seats and Eastwood from the Tories and Dumbarton from Labour in particular. If the SNP fail to win those seats and lose Strahkelvin and Bearsden to the LDs they are doing worse than last time and if they also lose Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform may even not have enough seats for a majority with Reform

    I'm betting - by voting - that whilst the SNP can lose the coast seat, the fukers have put the shits up enough people by threatening jobs and prosperity to dampen their appeal. Which is why I am voting for your boi James Adams.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920
    Two countries separated by a common language and the gulf between US politicians' ears.

    Eric Daugherty
    @EricLDaugh
    🚨 LMFAO! SEN. JOHN KENNEDY just DROPPED this hilarious line:

    "My Democratic colleagues really like Keir Starmer...who is just to the left of Lenin. He's very unpopular with the people of the UK. He's polling right up there with gonorrhea!"

    "I don't know how much longer he can last, but this guy, he would give Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez a run for her money in terms of his loony woke ideas!" 😭

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2049961728314589207?s=20
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    edited May 1
    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,819

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    SIX DAYS TO SAVE THE LABOUR PARTY!!!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920
    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    I guess the SNP want to contrast themselves with the party with actual control over energy policy who at a recent GE promised to reduce energy bills, save Grangemouth and provide thousands of GB Energy jobs in Aberdeen. 'At least we're not these lying arseholes' is not a high minded electoral strategy, but all's fair etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Invest in companies exploring non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    FTP

    isam said:

    This seems a good moment to report Mrs PtP's visit to Golders Green on Wednesday when she happened to have a work appointment there with the Jewish Chronicle. She didn't witness the attack but spoke to a number who did. They made it clear to her that it had little to do with anti-semitism and everything to do with a nutcase committing a horrible crime, because that's what some nutcases do. It isn't surprising that local leaders have taken the opportunity to press their claims in the aftermath but any suggestion that Golders Green or anywhere else in London is a no go zone are complete bollox. I have passed through myself several times in the past few days and there are no signs of the local Jews hiding in terror, covering their stars of David, removing their skull caps, or dressing any differently to the way they do normally. I was personally able to make my usual visit to Daniels and scoff a smoked salmon bagel without fear. In short, it is business as usual.

    Mrs PtP is half Jewish. I am not Jewish, although I do have a roman nose. Neither of us has a dog in this fight. I used to think this was perhaps a lazy or unprincipled position but increasingly I see it as one to be proud of.

    I hope it doesn't cause offence.

    I agree that this attacker is more crazy than motivated by religion or politics, but I wonder how people would feel about it if an equally deranged, serial offender who had only been out of a mental home a few days was a white Englishman who randomly sought out Muslims in one of East London’s Islamic neighbourhoods. I reckon people would be laying the blame at Farage and Rupert Lowe’s door, and Sir Keir would be referencing ‘far right thuggery’
    In that case it would be accurate - what the "currents of hate" in the sea of online discourse do, is carry people along them.

    Which is why it is very dangerous to make interoperate statements and ones that are political untruths.

    Years back, Shell was going to decommission a floating storage tank in the North Sea - the Brent Spar. It had been clean out and was going to be sunk. Greenpeace was very opposed to this. So they mounted a campaign that went over the top - even claiming that the Brent Spar was radioactive.

    A guy with a few screws loose took this as the spur to plant a bomb near a Shell petrol station in Germany. Fortunately no one was hurt.

    When asked, Greenpeace were very defensive about the rhetoric they'd used. It was curious to see how they couldn't understand that their intemperate language could be (mis)interpreted as a call to... action. "But the cause is right, so we were justified in..."

    Words can kill.
    So in this case it is right to blame the ‘current of hate’ towards Jews we see at the moment online and in London marches?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,437
    edited May 1

    HYUFD said:

    If the SNP are heading for a majority they will need to win most of these seats, gaining the borders seats and Eastwood from the Tories and Dumbarton from Labour in particular. If the SNP fail to win those seats and lose Strahkelvin and Bearsden to the LDs they are doing worse than last time and if they also lose Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform may even not have enough seats for a majority with Reform

    The SNP looking for a majority with Reform is presumably a product of your fevered imagination.
    At last night's hustings here on the island, (even) the local Tory leader ruled out any deal with Reform - which is important since the most likely outcomes here are either a Reform majority or Reform largest party.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,269

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
    Gone native?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,819

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
    "In the year of our Lord 2026, SNP activists, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of Holyrood. They fought like warrior politicians. They fought like Scottish Nationalists. And they won yet another majority."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924

    HYUFD said:

    If the SNP are heading for a majority they will need to win most of these seats, gaining the borders seats and Eastwood from the Tories and Dumbarton from Labour in particular. If the SNP fail to win those seats and lose Strahkelvin and Bearsden to the LDs they are doing worse than last time and if they also lose Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform may even not have enough seats for a majority with Reform

    The SNP looking for a majority with Reform is presumably a product of your fevered imagination.
    Sorry, should have said 'for a majority with the Greens', even if the Scottish and British (arguably English) nationalists are not as far apart as some may think
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,988

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Invest in companies exploring non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing.
    Non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing:



    Please invest in me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,694

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Invest in companies exploring non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing.
    Non-fossil fuel nitrogen fixing:



    Please invest in me.
    The fun one is adding (enhanced) nitrogen fixing via GM to crops.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited May 1

    Two countries separated by a common language and the gulf between US politicians' ears.

    Eric Daugherty
    @EricLDaugh
    🚨 LMFAO! SEN. JOHN KENNEDY just DROPPED this hilarious line:

    "My Democratic colleagues really like Keir Starmer...who is just to the left of Lenin. He's very unpopular with the people of the UK. He's polling right up there with gonorrhea!"

    "I don't know how much longer he can last, but this guy, he would give Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez a run for her money in terms of his loony woke ideas!" 😭

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2049961728314589207?s=20

    To be fair to Kennedy he was right that Starmer is woke even if I would not call him 'looney left' though in Louisiana where he is a US Senator I expect virtually all UK politicians would now be considered 'looney left' except maybe Farage and Rosindell
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,694
    Another day, another grift.

    Trump sons take stake in Kazakh miner that won $1.6bn US contract
    https://x.com/FT/status/2049939056256012735
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,817

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    I guess the SNP want to contrast themselves with the party with actual control over energy policy who at a recent GE promised to reduce energy bills, save Grangemouth and provide thousands of GB Energy jobs in Aberdeen. 'At least we're not these lying arseholes' is not a high minded electoral strategy, but all's fair etc.
    Judging by a telly hustings I saw in Aberdeen the SNP are going to have a very hard job persuading oil and gas workers that they are on their side.

    Kirsty Blackman looked pretty down-in-the-mouth during it - not surprising given the anger of the audience. Michael Marra for Labour did a much better job even though he didn't have much to shout about either. Think he must be a strong contender to take over from Anas.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
    Golly, you have drunk the Yoon-Aid.
    Still, given the moveable feast that is your poltical allegiance, I can't say I would be surprised to see you touting for the evil Natz down the line (though I wouldn't be terribly reassured by that support).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    I guess the SNP want to contrast themselves with the party with actual control over energy policy who at a recent GE promised to reduce energy bills, save Grangemouth and provide thousands of GB Energy jobs in Aberdeen. 'At least we're not these lying arseholes' is not a high minded electoral strategy, but all's fair etc.
    Judging by a telly hustings I saw in Aberdeen the SNP are going to have a very hard job persuading oil and gas workers that they are on their side.

    Kirsty Blackman looked pretty down-in-the-mouth during it - not surprising given the anger of the audience. Michael Marra for Labour did a much better job even though he didn't have much to shout about either. Think he must be a strong contender to take over from Anas.

    Surely not once Anas becomes FM?!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,371
    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,483

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    Funny old world where a leftie like me agrees with pretty much everything Major says.
    Mind you, he's a cricket fan, so I was always more willing to give him the time of day.
    Major is a good egg.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    Typical Reform hypocrisy. Far from stopping the boats, we should own more of them.

    Reform's Scottish leader says he owns six houses, six boats and five cars

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0pl271kzyo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,694
    edited May 1
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    Syria is doing pretty well, though.

    After record rains in recent months & storage efforts in late-2025, #Syria's Grain Authority has assessed that the country won't require *any* wheat imports in 2026.

    That'd be the first time in many, many years.

    https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/2049911878739013809
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,599
    Ruth Davidson wins the internet.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,240
    Very interesting contests in progress in Scottish constituencies. Certainly one of the benefits of the fractured state of British politics.

    Thanks for the article. I presume that essentially all of the constituencies not mentioned are uninteresting because they're assumed to be safe SNP holds?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,493

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    Funny old world where a leftie like me agrees with pretty much everything Major says.
    Mind you, he's a cricket fan, so I was always more willing to give him the time of day.
    Major is a good egg.
    Good in parts. I cried when he lost the election to that awful Blair in '97

    Commitment to public service, big tick.
    Cricket, big tick.
    Absolutely wedded to the declinist mantra of the early 90s, big cross.
    Bizaarely pro-EU, big cross.

    And his constant sniping from the sidelines during the Brexit tumult was particularly offputting.

    Beginning to think; if Starmer's only supporter is Major, he's an absolute goner after the locals.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920
    FF43 said:

    Typical Reform hypocrisy. Far from stopping the boats, we should own more of them.

    Reform's Scottish leader says he owns six houses, six boats and five cars

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0pl271kzyo

    In true proudScotbut over-compensation he's kitted out his 'biggest yacht' like this. More cringey than the conspicuous consumption tbh.




    https://x.com/Malcolm_Offord/status/2049765029650522373?s=20

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,434
    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    My recollection is it pissed it down all through February. Was that really no more than normal?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    Very interesting contests in progress in Scottish constituencies. Certainly one of the benefits of the fractured state of British politics.

    Thanks for the article. I presume that essentially all of the constituencies not mentioned are uninteresting because they're assumed to be safe SNP holds?

    Not impossible that there might be a Reform surprise in the boundless desert between Glasgow & Edinburgh, after all Reform had their solitary electoral Scottish win in Whitburn and Blackburn in West Lothian. People are pissed off about Grangemouth and it's always been a neglected area despite moaning about the central belt getting everything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    The deluge of January not sufficient to make up for it I suppose.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,240

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
    "The elections are going to show that people are fed up with the status quo..."

    Where have these people been?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,797
    @DoctorG

    "This seat was previously held by Nicola Sturgeon, whom some of you may be able to recall."

    I LOL'd

    :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,371
    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,988

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    My recollection is it pissed it down all through February. Was that really no more than normal?
    February is winter, rather than spring?
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
    "The elections are going to show that people are fed up with the status quo..."

    Where have these people been?
    There is, of course, nothing less status quo than a former Director of Public Prosecutions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    Foss said:

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
    "The elections are going to show that people are fed up with the status quo..."

    Where have these people been?
    There is, of course, nothing less status quo than a former Director of Public Prosecutions.
    Has he considered adding a fourth chord to the music?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    My recollection is it pissed it down all through February. Was that really no more than normal?
    February is winter, rather than spring?
    Water doesn't just go away, surely if it happens in February it doesn't need to happen in March. Apparently April has been fairly dry though.

    Anyway, I don't agree with the screwy idea that a northern European country has 3 equal length seasons. As far as I am concerned it starts in February when the days are getting obviously longer and plants start budding/flowering, and summer starts on 1 May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited May 1

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420

    Foss said:

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
    "The elections are going to show that people are fed up with the status quo..."

    Where have these people been?
    There is, of course, nothing less status quo than a former Director of Public Prosecutions.
    Has he considered adding a fourth chord to the music?
    He's going down down, deeper and down...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    In the USA regular gasoline has gone up by an average of 17 cents a gallon in 2 days !

    At least we can be sure that the Iran war will end before early voting begins for the mid-terms !

    The GOP can try and rig the vote but there’s a point at which the Blue Wave will be unstoppable if gas prices and inflation remain high .

    How much more will it go up by when they resume the bombing ?
    I dread to think ! If interest rates start going up aswell as inflation then that’s going to hammer those especially on variable rate mortgages . It will also increase government borrowing costs .

    Most of the public seem to be unaware of the horror show that’s fast approaching.
    Horror show doesn't cover it. The world faces a shortage of oil with the brutal price increase that will follow. Not just the price of filling up your Mondeo. The price of everything you buy. Food price inflation forecast to be 9% if it all stops now - and it won't. Which means 20%+ again on core staples.

    The one I am watching for? Meaty goodness. Several analysts warning that there will be culls of herds due to lack of feed which will create an initial cratering of prices as meat is dumped wholesale, followed by skyrocketing prices due to lack of product.

    Fun fun fun.
    Not helped in the UK by the very dry spring.
    If there isn't significant rain soon, this year's harvest will be well down again.
    The deluge of January not sufficient to make up for it I suppose.

    I wasn't here in January, glad to have missed it. Although February was unpleasant if not too cold. Might make my winter trip later in the year next year - late Jan to early March is one idea. I'll miss Christmas flight premiums too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    On the "dissonance"

    Back when Major was coming up in politics, young people got involved in politics as activists. The expectation was that they would build a part time, volunteer "career" in politics. Until (generally) they achieved a level of success and stature in their real world jobs/occupations that made getting elected a practical possibility.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,434
    edited May 1

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.

    The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.

    A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.

    I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The comment of a man who no longer needs to get elected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited May 1
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    In a hung parliament though backbenchers have significant power, as was seen from 2017-19. The social media aggression isn't helpful but if you are elected as an MP in the North and Midlands, Scotland or Wales, Cornwall or Norfolk the £98,599 MPs salary will easily enable you to buy a home in your constituency and if you set aside half your salary for it probably pay off most or even all of the mortgage in one parliament, so you are set for life as a home owner even if you lose your seat
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814

    viewcode said:

    @DoctorG

    "This seat was previously held by Nicola Sturgeon, whom some of you may be able to recall."

    I LOL'd

    :)

    Although Nicola herself of course has no memory of it...
    She recalls that she was awesome and right about everything - the one thing politicians retain perfect memory about.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.

    An Indian friend, who I worked with for some years, told me that his church in India was burned moderately frequently. When the RSS types get all anti-muslim and head out to start a riot, they used to set fire to it, on the way.

    So his fellow worshippers rebuilt the church with a substantial set of walls, and a thin straw thatch roof on a metal frame. So now, the roof burns. Which makes the RSS lads happy. But it burns very quickly and doesn't do much damage to the building.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    On topic and regarding the list being a top up system.

    I'm amused by the idea that the Tories could effect a self-decapitation by performing well in Eastwood. It's a circumstance that would almost tempt a tactical vote if you lived there.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,568
    algarkirk said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.

    The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.

    A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.

    I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
    While I think the triple lock is stupid - it makes no sense to say that pensioner income must necessarily go up faster than everyone else's - I strongly support a non-means tested pension - not least because if you means test a pension it then makes no sense to save for a pension.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661

    FF43 said:

    Typical Reform hypocrisy. Far from stopping the boats, we should own more of them.

    Reform's Scottish leader says he owns six houses, six boats and five cars

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0pl271kzyo

    In true proudScotbut over-compensation he's kitted out his 'biggest yacht' like this. More cringey than the conspicuous consumption tbh.




    https://x.com/Malcolm_Offord/status/2049765029650522373?s=20

    Like Heaven, I think countries should contain many mansions. Many and big ones in the case of Lord Offord I suppose, but he's not relatable.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    I believe West Bank orthodox Arabs and Pakistani Christians suffer quite a lot of persecution
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,849

    FF43 said:

    Typical Reform hypocrisy. Far from stopping the boats, we should own more of them.

    Reform's Scottish leader says he owns six houses, six boats and five cars

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0pl271kzyo

    In true proudScotbut over-compensation he's kitted out his 'biggest yacht' like this. More cringey than the conspicuous consumption tbh.




    https://x.com/Malcolm_Offord/status/2049765029650522373?s=20

    Stop the (Offord) boats?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited May 1

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    On the "dissonance"

    Back when Major was coming up in politics, young people got involved in politics as activists. The expectation was that they would build a part time, volunteer "career" in politics. Until (generally) they achieved a level of success and stature in their real world jobs/occupations that made getting elected a practical possibility.
    In the world where most seats were safe Tory or Labour yes, for the Tories barristers, solicitors, businessmen or bankers, for Labour journalists, human rights lawyers or senior union or charity officials would stand for maybe a hopeless seat then a safe seat and be made politically for life (if they were really high flyers or senior SPADs sometimes they would get a safe seat straight away). Marginal seats always were more likely to attract professional councillors and researchers for MPs and now of course with few seats safe for the 2 main parties more will have to be near full time professional politicians to hold or gain a Conservative or Labour seat. Much as most LD MPs tended to have been ex councillors or full time politicians before election, like most Green MPs.

    We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,817
    kle4 said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The comment of a man who no longer needs to get elected.
    Well, yes, but there won't be any change unless the ground is prepared by discussion. To that extent TB is performing a useful function by making these comments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    edited May 1

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    algarkirk said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.

    The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.

    A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.

    I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
    When you talk about upper limits for pensionable age - the next fun one, is varying by occupations.

    People can do stuff at desks until they drop - an architect I know has retired about 3 times and now does volunteer architecture for charity, way into his 80s.

    Not sure I can see too many people working laying railway track at 70+ years old,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814

    kle4 said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The comment of a man who no longer needs to get elected.
    Well, yes, but there won't be any change unless the ground is prepared by discussion. To that extent TB is performing a useful function by making these comments.
    I agree. For all I am somewhat dismissive of think tanks and the like because they are mostly either in someone's pocket producing ideas on demand, or ideologically driven and producing ideas to back up that ideology - or both - it is still helpful to have people with some status and reach at least suggest some ideas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
    It produces a (anti?) reaction among progressive types everywhere. Because many people instinctively shy away from causes celebrated by the American Right.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    edited May 1

    algarkirk said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    The R4 coverage of this made it sound as if it had the sort of complexity that puts people off. If it save £66bn per annum then either it makes people £66bn poorer or in fact it is made up in other ways. Plenty of pensioners are already poor, while plenty are not.

    The fact to acknowledge is that most people must, will or should stop working at some point. The upper limit from the state provision point of view can't possibly be much over about 69/70 (which is a bit high anyway). They are going to be paid somehow to be retired. I am one of them.

    A simple and comprehensive start to this is a non means tested state pension, more or less universal. This needs to be enough so that those with little else don't starve. If cut to starvation levels, it just increases the means tested benefits bill The billions that need to be saved from the current bill should be through properly taxing pensioners, on the same basis as workers, abolishing the triple lock, and being realistic about the contribution future pensioners need to make through tax and NI.

    I wish one could add 'return to proper defined benefit work pensions' but I fear that ship has sailed.
    When you talk about upper limits for pensionable age - the next fun one, is varying by occupations.

    People can do stuff at desks until they drop - an architect I know has retired about 3 times and now does volunteer architecture for charity, way into his 80s.

    Not sure I can see too many people working laying railway track at 70+ years old,
    This has long been the case with manual workers, for example brickies. When I worked at the Jobcentre you would find the sensible ones kept themselves fit, gained more specialist skills that youngsrers didn't have, and/or planned a route into something less physical such as supervisory roles, builders merchants or training. Those who didn't, were pretty f***ed by 50.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
    It produces a (anti?) reaction among progressive types everywhere. Because many people instinctively shy away from causes celebrated by the American Right.
    I’m willing to be informed otherwise, but I feel Christians being persecuted by ultra nationalist Jews in Israel would be a cause that the America Right wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
    It produces a (anti?) reaction among progressive types everywhere. Because many people instinctively shy away from causes celebrated by the American Right.
    I’m willing to be informed otherwise, but I feel Christians being persecuted by ultra nationalist Jews in Israel would be a cause that the America Right wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.
    Only parts of it. Some of the very few American Right anti-Trump posts I've ever seen have come from those who are extremely anti-Israel and complaining that Trump is in their pocket.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,371
    edited May 1

    Foss said:

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2049871567006355872

    The PM’s plan for 8 May

    There is no coming back. He simply has to go.

    " a slap in the face"?

    Oh no. It is going to be a punch in the face.

    Then a knee in the bollocks.

    And then in many places, a trip to Madame Guillotine.

    "So, lads, after the beheading, my fightback begins! Lads? LADS???"
    "The elections are going to show that people are fed up with the status quo..."

    Where have these people been?
    There is, of course, nothing less status quo than a former Director of Public Prosecutions.
    Has he considered adding a fourth chord to the music?
    He's going down down, deeper and down...
    It is a vile calumny to suggest Status Quo lacked musicianship. Consider their many two tunes – Pictures of Matchstick Men, and all the rest.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,371
    'We'll win Havering,' declares Nigel Farage as Reform targets three more London councils in local elections
    Exclusive: Reform UK leader convinced party will win Havering - and could seize Bexley, Bromley, and Barking and Dagenham
    ...
    “My first press call on the morning of May 8 is going to be outside Havering Town Hall at about 7.30 in the morning.

    “I look forward to seeing you there.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-local-elections-london-reform-win-havering-councils-b1280565.html
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    On the "dissonance"

    Back when Major was coming up in politics, young people got involved in politics as activists. The expectation was that they would build a part time, volunteer "career" in politics. Until (generally) they achieved a level of success and stature in their real world jobs/occupations that made getting elected a practical possibility.
    Indeed. Note Major states he got interested in politics at 14, he built a banking career, served as a councillor in Lambeth and entered Parliament at 36.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,793
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    On the "dissonance"

    Back when Major was coming up in politics, young people got involved in politics as activists. The expectation was that they would build a part time, volunteer "career" in politics. Until (generally) they achieved a level of success and stature in their real world jobs/occupations that made getting elected a practical possibility.
    In the world where most seats were safe Tory or Labour yes, for the Tories barristers, solicitors, businessmen or bankers, for Labour journalists, human rights lawyers or senior union or charity officials would stand for maybe a hopeless seat then a safe seat and be made politically for life (if they were really high flyers or senior SPADs sometimes they would get a safe seat straight away). Marginal seats always were more likely to attract professional councillors and researchers for MPs and now of course with few seats safe for the 2 main parties more will have to be near full time professional politicians to hold or gain a Conservative or Labour seat. Much as most LD MPs tended to have been ex councillors or full time politicians before election, like most Green MPs.

    We are now in a world where it could be Reform on current polls who are the only party who can parachute in the high flyers to safe seats, alongside maybe the SNP in Scotland
    Did Labour have a particular monopoly on journalist MPs? In recent years it's been the Tory variety who caused all the havoc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
    It produces a (anti?) reaction among progressive types everywhere. Because many people instinctively shy away from causes celebrated by the American Right.
    I’m willing to be informed otherwise, but I feel Christians being persecuted by ultra nationalist Jews in Israel would be a cause that the America Right wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.
    Only parts of it. Some of the very few American Right anti-Trump posts I've ever seen have come from those who are extremely anti-Israel and complaining that Trump is in their pocket.
    I’ll qualify that by saying the American Right in government which afaics holds Israel as the only country with which they have a special relationship (cf the UK ambassador to the court of King Donald).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    "Crypto-billionaire"

    No red flags, those people are never completely dismissive of rules and the law in order to make a quick buck.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,988
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) won an initial round Thursday in his $787 million defamation case over Fox News coverage of a phone call he had with President Donald Trump last year about protests in Los Angeles.

    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/gavin-newsoms-fox-news-defamation-lawsuit-moves-forward
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,554

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    From your second link: The Hebrew University's Faculty of Comparative Religion also took to social media to express its shock at the "heinous and utterly dangerous hate crime," which it said was "part of a deeply disturbing rise in Christianophobia that is becoming alarmingly prevalent in the Old City of Jerusalem and in many other places across Israel."

    Christianophobia is a word I've not seen before. What happened to live and let live?
    Persecution of Christians is not especially uncommon. There is a reflexive reaction from more progressive types about it, since it became a cause with the American Right. More Culture War nonsense.
    Is that really at a level of persecution?
    In various countries, it is.
    .
    Your comment specifically raised reaction from progressive types in the US, however.
    It produces a (anti?) reaction among progressive types everywhere. Because many people instinctively shy away from causes celebrated by the American Right.
    I’m willing to be informed otherwise, but I feel Christians being persecuted by ultra nationalist Jews in Israel would be a cause that the America Right wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.
    Only parts of it. Some of the very few American Right anti-Trump posts I've ever seen have come from those who are extremely anti-Israel and complaining that Trump is in their pocket.
    I’ll qualify that by saying the American Right in government which afaics holds Israel as the only country with which they have a special relationship (cf the UK ambassador to the court of King Donald).
    There’s a chunk of MAGA that is very anti-Semitic. See their break with Trump over Israel.

    Fucker Carlson is a case in point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,437
    edited May 1

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some support for Starmer from Sir John Major 'Britain must not keep changing prime ministers, Sir John Major has warned in a broadside at those who treat politics as a "game show" while leaving big problems to the next generation.

    The former Conservative prime minister accused today's focus-group obsessed politicians of thinking their job was to "provide fodder for the media and project your own career" while delaying action on complex issues like healthcare, pensions and climate change.'

    He also regrets the growth in the professional political clash 'ir John also criticised the growing number of professional politicians in all parties.

    He said Labour MPs used to be "people without money, without privilege, working class people who really knew their constituents" but now "they're much younger, much better educated, and in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were".

    "And you can see on the Conservative side, where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers?

    "Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They're very sparse now on the Conservative benches."

    Sir John, the last prime minister not to go to university, was inspired to enter politics after a chance meeting at the age of 13 with his local MP, Marcus Lipton, who arranged a visit to the Commons.

    He hopes others will still be willing to follow.

    "Well, I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on how can I earn more money, how can I avoid public service like the plague because I don't like the idea of it, then we are in deep doodah."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgepy0xw1nzo

    There are reasons why people avoid politics either as a first or subsequent career.

    Note that Major has a significant dissonance; he is both calling for young people to enter politics and for the back benches to be full of people with previous (presumably successful) occupations - 'working class' Labour - white van man and industrial workers - and Tory soldiers and businesspeople.

    Three reasons to avoid parliamentary politics:

    1) MPs are disregarded by their own leadership and have almost no interesting powers.
    2) Political discourse is mostly a tiring and tiresome dishonest exercise in dead words.
    3) Social media and the aggressive minority of loonies and single issue fanatics, with the occasional murderer set loose on you.

    Finally, its insecurity may have been fun once upon a time, but the sort of stability you need now to occupy and retain even a modest place on the housing ladder makes politics a tough ask for the young and not rich.

    if you are idealistic what is the point of sitting for years on the back benches watching government kick everything into the future?
    Hmm. I was an MP for 13 years and had various interesting Select Committee jobs, and was PPS to Malcolm Wicks, who was careful to involve me in everything. Despite that I struggle to think of specific laws or practices that changed as a result of my efforts. On the other hand, it's easy to think of elections in which I was one of a few hundred people affecting the result, holding the seat against expectations. I never encountered any loonies or even got sworn at - the most was a firm "not interested". Canvassing in all subsequent elections has produced the same pattern, and I'm not convinced that mindless aggression to a stranger on your doorstep is that common. I never consciously lied, though I certainly concentrated on themes which I thought productive. I was able to help lots of individuals with their problems.

    In the same way, I've never tried to disguise my identity here, and I can't remember anyone being rude (except for one poster who is rude to everyone). One or two people are scornful, but that's normal democracy.

    Ultimately the test is whether you think that being part of a smallish group affecting things is worthwhile, even if you don't star yourself. Given the interest in everyone here in taking part in elections at all, where the probability of making a difference is small, I assume most of us would agree it's worthwhile. Would we suffer seriously under an autocracy if we kept our heads down? Probably not, but it'd be a rubbish way to help run society around us.

    So I do think it's worth getting involved, and encourage everyone to do so. A life spent entirely indifferent to ytour surroundings is missing something important.
    I too have enjoyed my political roles, and when younger considered the parliamentary route, which back then wasn't that practicable given my party and personal circumstances. But the more I saw an MPs job from the inside, the less I fancied it anyway. The most extraordinary thing is the dichotomy between the local presence - in your own patch you're considered someone important, almost a celebrity, even though getting anything done locally inevitably involves the council or other agencies doing it, since the MP has no actual power or authority other than the soft powers of influencing and shaming - whereas in parliament, where people would think you do have power - the seemingly responsible position of MP is, in all the parties and particularly the major ones - reduced to a position of mostly being a micro-managed impotent grunt, which no relatively senior person in the corporate world would tolerate. You're told where to be, how to vote, what to say and not say, and fed patsy questions to ask, and if you step significantly out of line by thinking for yourself, you're thrown into the wilderness and most likely your political future is over. And are dealing, with your team, with a vast pile of routine correspondence over almost all of which you have no influence and are simply a letterbox passing your constituent's representation to an official and the official's response back to the constituent. Yes, there are occasional opportunities to make a difference at a key committee or via private member legislation, but those come along only rarely such that even very long serving MPs struggle to point to very much where they've managed to make a difference. The most satisfying thing is probably resolving some resident's intractable problem tangling with officialdom, but then you get plenty of opportunity to do that as a councillor.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,797
    HYUFD said:

    Tony Blair: ‘Outdated and unaffordable’ state pension must go
    Ex-PM proposes overhaul to save £66bn by 2070, but critics warn it is ‘complex and highly intrusive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/state-pensions/tony-blair-abolish-state-pension/ (£££)

    Blair is now economically right of Farage let alone Starmer and Kemi, Polanski and Davey. He backs Trump's Iran War too. Abolishing the state pension would be political suicide for any party leader who proposed it as he well knows, just ringfence NI contributions for it. While there may be some logic in his alternative 'Lifespan Fund' it would require pensioners to work 5 more years to get it at a time life expectancy has stalled, his group also wants to scrap pensions credit as well as ditch the triple lock
    He keeps imposing 1990s solutions that don't work in the 2020s, for 1990s problems that don't exist in the 2020s. By 2040 the boomer bulge will have disappeared thru ordinary mortality and (hopefully) the retired/worker ratio will have improved. It's the next fifteen years that's the problem.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342

    FF43 said:

    Thing I'm noticing in this election is the SNP advertising very heavily. Going hard on reducing bills.

    Which raises the should be obvious question. Either they can reduce bills, so why hasn't the party in power done so already? Or they can't reduce bills, so why are they making false promises? The SNP are trying to pull the trick of being the natural party of government and insurgents at the same time. I would think that trick is wearing thin by now, but presumably they have done the focus groups.

    In terms of results, most of the parties in Scotland have problems of different kinds so I expect the SNP to stay about the same by default. Wildcard is how well Reform does.

    Bills go up: the evil perfidious English
    Bills go down: the brave Sots
    Golly, you have drunk the Yoon-Aid.
    Still, given the moveable feast that is your poltical allegiance, I can't say I would be surprised to see you touting for the evil Natz down the line (though I wouldn't be terribly reassured by that support).
    ??? That's what *The SNP* are saying. That's not what I think.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,542
    Thank-you for the header.

    That pond clearly needs a bus in it ""!!
This discussion has been closed.