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Why the mainstream parties will be swept aside next week – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    After Starmer failed to back Reeves at PMQ's, his spokesperson has just said the PM has full confidence in the chancellor

    The real question should be, do labour mps have full confidence in Starmer ?
  • It is so bleeding obvious that Burnham needs to take over. So, so obvious.

    The data is staring us in the face.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700

    Leon said:

    Easy to feel disheartened by these antisemitic attacks taking place in the UK but let's not feel ashamed. It's Israel not Britain that's to blame.

    Right?

    It shames the nation. It’s disgraceful

    If I was Jewish I would absolutely not feel safe in the UK. Not at home, not in the synagogue, not walking the streets

    And the left have enabled this in different ways
    I'd imagine elements of the left don't understand the damage that being against 'Zionism' but not 'Anti-semitic' has done. Idiots like Corbyn being pals with lots of interesting characters.
    "Antisemitism" has been so devalued by the false claims on anyone who is against Israels Genocide that it is now worthless.
    No it hasn’t.

    Just like Ali Disaster Area claiming racial persecution by the Met, didn’t invalidate all other claims of racism by the Met.
    Watermelons are antisemitic types have seriously undermined actual antisemitism.

    Billy Liar syndrome.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833

    While he suggests the fiscal rules “will stay in any context,” he says “there’s certainly a case, when we look at the pressure on defence spending, to consider that exceptionally outside of the rules.”

    Talking of telling the truth, paying lip service to a rigid framework while actually ignoring it helps to create an environment where politicians are more concerned with appearances than reality.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    edited April 29

    It is so bleeding obvious that Burnham needs to take over. So, so obvious.

    The data is staring us in the face.

    SKS clique don't care about winning as long as a centre left figure is prevented from becoming PM
    They have only themselves to claim for the bloodbath that is about to ensure.
  • The Greens literally have an anti-Semite as deputy leader. Shameful.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,646
    Oil in the opposite of freefall. Freerise?

    On topic, I don't agree that we have never had it so bad. The people who think so and are attracted by various charlatans will vote to make things worse for them and for everyone else. It's entirely their fault that they do so but as always no-one likes home truths.
  • malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pretending the rise in anti-Semitic attacks is happening in a vacuum is just a case of not wanting to deal with reality.

    I never remember so many incidents pre both the Gaza and Iran wars . Of course anytime anyone mentions this they get paraded as anti-Semitic .

    The media are now so terrified to even discuss this .

    Attributing the rise in attacks due to the situation in the Middle East isn’t justifying violence it’s simply stating the bleeding obvious !

    They normalised it all by letting the weekly hatefest marches in London continue to do what they want, shout what they want etc and as usual police stood by instead of nipping it in the bud.
    Exactly. Well said
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700

    The Greens literally have an anti-Semite as deputy leader. Shameful.

    They have a Jewish leader elected overwhelmingly by the membership recently.

    When someone claims someone else is antisemitic this should not longer be taken at face value thanks to Zionist distortion of the term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas

    The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US.

    American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d.

    The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5 million b/d last week. Unsustainable.

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2049506125196796300
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas

    The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US.

    American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d.

    The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5 million b/d last week. Unsustainable.

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2049506125196796300
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    Leon said:

    Sundowners. Zebra behind us hippos in front, fish eagles all around



    It is just such a stunning place for adventures.

    If you ever get the chance, jump at going to the Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    rcs1000 said:

    This is a good article. My only criticism is that it's parochial.

    The last two decades, across the developed world, have been shit. Now, not shit in absolute terms; no one is starving. But shit in relative terms, with the historic pattern of progress, and children wealthier than their parents breaking down.

    This economic discontinuity has happened in the US, in Europe, and in Japan.

    The only places it has not happened are Australia and Canada (and perhaps Norway).

    It's happened where there is lots of immigration. And it's happened where there's been essentially none.

    And it is the result of three interconnecting factors.

    Firstly, dependency ratios. In the 60s, 70s and 80s, people were having fewer children, and there weren't many old people. The amount of 'work' that was spent on the retired and kids was diminishing. This was combined with women spending more time in work, which meant economic output only went in one direction.

    Secondly, from the mid 1970s and the oil shock, the cost of commodities went into long-term decline, driven by a combination of increased efficiency and new resources (often in the developed world). The amount of money spent on heating homes and powering cars kept on going down, leaving more money for other things.

    Thirdly, the developed world first had a monopoly on making things, particularly expensive things. The developing world shipped commodities to Europe, the US and Japan, who made those commodities into expensive goods. And people in the developed world were rich, and people in the developing world were poor.

    Then each of those boosts became a drag.

    Demographics turned negative, as the number of old people grew relative to the number of workers. Every year, more money had to be taken out of workers paychecks to pay for the pensions and healthcare of old people.

    Commodities got expensive, thanks to the developing world.. well.. developing. And wanting their fair share of coal and oil and gas and copper.

    Governments in the late 1990s discovered that you could temporarily get out of the hole by borrowing and importing. It turns out
    that selling an imported iPhone is economic activity! And that worked for a while.

    But ultimately, we ceased to do anything useful at exactly the same time that demographics came to smack us around the head.

    To make things worse, politicians in the West attempted to solve the demographic issues with migration. Birth rate of 1.2? Population pyramid inverted? Simply import more people. Which led to a breakdown in social cohesion and more expensive housing. Not least because too many of our leaders thought it better to hide the issues in front of us.

    Candidly, we need politicians who can tell us the truth.

    The problem, as South America has shown over the last seventy years, is that we don't want to hear the truth. Nobody gets elected by actual identification of the issues.

    They get elected by whispering the most seductive words in the English language: "it's not your fault".

    This has been happening for decades though.

    I’ve worked very very hard all my adult life. And I’ve had a modestly successful career.

    But my parents had waaaay more fun than I did and were relatively speaking a lot better off than I have been
    It's the 17-18 years since the GFC that has seen the breakdown of the cycle of growth, and the resulting decline of traditional parties.
  • ajbajb Posts: 184
    We often see here a view that wishes government would just be a good administrator, and be careful with money. That's very sensible - if you're a pensioner, or close to it. It's a short term view, as if Britain, like a pensioner, had already made it's main opportunities and made its main life decisions, and now just needs to look after it's health for the next decade or so, and avoid running out of cash. The mainstream political parties try to offer this "sensible" path, which is understandable,given the dominance of the pensioner vote.

    But it's a problem for those with their life ahead of them; and those thinking of their kid's lives. It assumes that most things which aren't working well can't be fixed now, and have to be lived with. That there aren't really any serious opportunities, and that the right investments are now obvious, with no serious risk of missing out, or being taken for mugs. It's a rather dour, quietist vision, even in the best light, and it's being rejected.

    Keir Starmer is probably a decent administrator. Even Rishi Sunak probably was. But neither have any grasp of strategy. Even in good, peaceful times, you need a strategy, as otherwise those who have one will eat your lunch. And these are not good times - history is back with a vengeance, with the international order collapsing and artificial intelligence changing how business works.

    This can't be written off as just wishful thinking by voters. They understand that their are risks and tradeoffs. But they know the country needs to "have a go", look for ways to succeed; it can't afford not to.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    After Starmer failed to back Reeves at PMQ's, his spokesperson has just said the PM has full confidence in the chancellor

    The real question should be, do labour mps have full confidence in Starmer ?

    And if so - do they have a death wish?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pretending the rise in anti-Semitic attacks is happening in a vacuum is just a case of not wanting to deal with reality.

    I never remember so many incidents pre both the Gaza and Iran wars . Of course anytime anyone mentions this they get paraded as anti-Semitic .

    The media are now so terrified to even discuss this .

    Attributing the rise in attacks due to the situation in the Middle East isn’t justifying violence it’s simply stating the bleeding obvious !

    They normalised it all by letting the weekly hatefest marches in London continue to do what they want, shout what they want etc and as usual police stood by instead of nipping it in the bud.
    How many of these "hatefest marches" did you attend in order to be an authority on such matters?

    I only ever went on one but noticed a massive Jewish contingent on the march. Presumably by your logic all these Jews are antisemites?

    Conflating Zionism with Judaism is by definition literally antisemitic
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    It is so bleeding obvious that Burnham needs to take over. So, so obvious.

    The data is staring us in the face.

    SKS clique don't care about winning as long as a centre left figure is prevented from becoming PM
    They have only themselves to claim for the bloodbath that is about to ensure.
    Hate to be the one to break it to you, but, err, Starmer is a centre left figure.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,983
    edited April 29
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    The problem is that a lot of people in these places are stuck. The ones that had get up and go have long gone, with funding or without.

    Those left have either lost the will, have some reason to hang around, or are part of the problem.

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/HW6VwJt7pfJ9ES6A7

    Welcome to Edlo!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pretending the rise in anti-Semitic attacks is happening in a vacuum is just a case of not wanting to deal with reality.

    I never remember so many incidents pre both the Gaza and Iran wars . Of course anytime anyone mentions this they get paraded as anti-Semitic .

    The media are now so terrified to even discuss this .

    Attributing the rise in attacks due to the situation in the Middle East isn’t justifying violence it’s simply stating the bleeding obvious !

    They normalised it all by letting the weekly hatefest marches in London continue to do what they want, shout what they want etc and as usual police stood by instead of nipping it in the bud.
    I think it's very easy to blame Muslims in the UK for changing views about Israel.

    It's also wrong.

    Views of Israel have gone into absolute freefall everywhere.

    South Korea and Japan have worse favorable/unfavorables on Israel than the UK, despite having essentially no Muslim populations. And that's from both countries having -historically- being quite warm towards Israel.
    But today’s story isn’t about views on the state of Israel and its government. It’s a blatantly antisemetic attack on Jewish civilians going about their business in Golder’s Green, London.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Leon said:

    Easy to feel disheartened by these antisemitic attacks taking place in the UK but let's not feel ashamed. It's Israel not Britain that's to blame.

    Right?

    It shames the nation. It’s disgraceful

    If I was Jewish I would absolutely not feel safe in the UK. Not at home, not in the synagogue, not walking the streets

    And the left have enabled this in different ways
    I'd imagine elements of the left don't understand the damage that being against 'Zionism' but not 'Anti-semitic' has done. Idiots like Corbyn being pals with lots of interesting characters.
    "Antisemitism" has been so devalued by the false claims on anyone who is against Israels Genocide that it is now worthless.
    Says you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    We’re sick of so called numbers
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    Good header @RochdalePioneers.

    We are where we are because mainstream politicians have failed to rise to the challenge of the post-GFC years. They have chosen to represent a seemingly immovable “system”, despite playing to the gallery and pretending they care about issues that matter to the man and woman on the street. It is no surprise that people feel repeatedly let down and why they are casting around for alternatives.

    I have said before and it remains my view that if western democracies are to survive in their current form they need political leaders to emerge (on either the left or the right) who are able to speak frankly and honestly to some of these issues, demonstrate they say what they mean, and take tough decisions even if that means weathering the storm of criticism from various quarters. I generally try to be a glass-half-full person, so I hope that in time that will happen. But we are enduring a bit of a wait.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    Quite right. People have given up on parties they know have not, and will not, improve their lives. In the north of England I expect Labour to get virtually obliterated.

    That said, I'm bearish on Reform's performance in Scotland. I expect them to underperform the polls by a notable margin.

    Lord Malc will no doubt buy another car, boat and house to console himself.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    We’re sick of so called numbers
    You can always stop listening to experts...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    TACO due in... say 48 hours?


    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    22m
    BREAKING: US Central Command has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes which would likely target Iranian infrastructure, per Axios.

    President Trump believes this would break the "negotiating deadlock."

    US gasoline futures are up another +5% amid the news.

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2049519482394079635
  • I am encouraged Mr Burnham wants to spend more money on defence.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    TACO due in... say 48 hours?


    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    22m
    BREAKING: US Central Command has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes which would likely target Iranian infrastructure, per Axios.

    President Trump believes this would break the "negotiating deadlock."

    US gasoline futures are up another +5% amid the news.

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2049519482394079635

    Dump then pump?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    The scene is set for Labour’s Liz Truss moment. We’ll have an inexperienced new PM taking over in the middle of an energy crisis.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,872
    Off topic, but important: Mitch McConnell, despite his impending retirement, and his serious health problems, is speaking out:
    Headlines often say that Americans don’t support U.S. aid to Ukraine, but real Americans say otherwise. They have consistently affirmed that Washington should aid Kyiv in resisting Russian aggression. Congress last year acted on that wish: Republican majorities on both armed services committees authorized $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for each of the next two years. Appropriators fully funded that authorization for fiscal 2026 with overwhelming support.

    Yet the Ukraine aid we passed months ago is now collecting dust at the Pentagon. When Senate appropriators have sought an explanation from the department’s policy shop, led by Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, they’ve been stonewalled.
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/28/mitch-mcconnell-congress-funded-ukraine-pentagon-is-stalling/

    (He's had a remarkable career. I'd be pleased if his second wife, Elaine Chao, replaced him in the Senate.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_McConnell )
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323
    edited April 29
    Quotes kaput.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323

    Off topic, but important: Mitch McConnell, despite his impending retirement, and his serious health problems, is speaking out: Headlines often say that Americans don’t support U.S. aid to Ukraine, but real Americans say otherwise. They have consistently affirmed that Washington should aid Kyiv in resisting Russian aggression. Congress last year acted on that wish: Republican majorities on both armed services committees authorized $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for each of the next two years. Appropriators fully funded that authorization for fiscal 2026 with overwhelming support.

    Yet the Ukraine aid we passed months ago is now collecting dust at the Pentagon. When Senate appropriators have sought an explanation from the department’s policy shop, led by Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, they’ve been stonewalled.

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/28/mitch-mcconnell-congress-funded-ukraine-pentagon-is-stalling/

    (He's had a remarkable career. I'd be pleased if his second wife, Elaine Chao, replaced him in the Senate.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_McConnell )

    Otoh McConnell blocked Garland from the Supreme Court and stopped the impeachment of Donald Trump. The man is a partisan hack whose only regret is ceding control to a regime even more extreme. Be careful what you wish for.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,331
    So many of these Iran metrics are guesses based on when the crisis ends. Even if Trump declares victory tomorrow the disruption continues well into the summer. And he won't. So oil prices will continue to rise and with it energy prices and with it food prices.

    Industry now estimating 9% average food price inflation in the best case scenario. The best case. And that would mean some stuff going up 20%+ as last time.

    This is a more severe shock than the Ukraine crisis and from a supply perspective has already gone on longer with no end in sight. It is going to be BRUTAL, and people simply don't know it.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,745
    People'd like to be wealthier but they spend less of their lives working. And about 60 years ago they cut back on producing new taxpayers collectively to afford a better life in the moment.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    So many of these Iran metrics are guesses based on when the crisis ends. Even if Trump declares victory tomorrow the disruption continues well into the summer. And he won't. So oil prices will continue to rise and with it energy prices and with it food prices.

    Industry now estimating 9% average food price inflation in the best case scenario. The best case. And that would mean some stuff going up 20%+ as last time.

    This is a more severe shock than the Ukraine crisis and from a supply perspective has already gone on longer with no end in sight. It is going to be BRUTAL, and people simply don't know it.

    Cool
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,131
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    You make a very good point, some people have/do move though, I've had numerous colleagues who've relocated or worked away during the week.
  • algarkirk said:

    I am encouraged Mr Burnham wants to spend more money on defence.

    However:

    "Burnham argues defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules to fund a rise through borrowing."


    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2049510846619914708


    Which is fine as long as you can explain how it is more effective to borrow more rather than spend less on other stuff, how the markets will react WRT belief in UK solvency and how the economics of 'guns and butter' make us all safer and better off.

    But he is silent about all this, how he is going to pay the interest (currently paid by additional borrowing) and pay it back. Having a plan without explaining the hard bit is the approach of the underpants gnomes.

    In this important regard he seems no better than the others.
    Fully agreed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    We’re sick of so called numbers
    You can always stop listening to experts...
    Assembly of Experts? :lol:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    edited April 29
    algarkirk said:

    I am encouraged Mr Burnham wants to spend more money on defence.

    However:

    "Burnham argues defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules to fund a rise through borrowing."


    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2049510846619914708


    Which is fine as long as you can explain how it is more effective to borrow more rather than spend less on other stuff, how the markets will react WRT belief in UK solvency and how the economics of 'guns and butter' make us all safer and better off.

    But he is silent about all this, how he is going to pay the interest (currently paid by additional borrowing) and pay it back. Having a plan without explaining the hard bit is the approach of the underpants gnomes.

    In this important regard he seems no better than the others.
    Don’t agree. Military spending isn’t really investment in that its return is limited (other than economic stimulus). We all need to pay higher taxes to pay for this, not borrow from our children.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    They upset him over tariffs, which were too ridiculous for some of the Conservative Justices to abandon their principles over - so they can at least return to advancing their own political interests when they do align with his, which is of course the job of a Supreme Court Justice, whatever their background.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878

    algarkirk said:

    I am encouraged Mr Burnham wants to spend more money on defence.

    However:

    "Burnham argues defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules to fund a rise through borrowing."


    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2049510846619914708


    Which is fine as long as you can explain how it is more effective to borrow more rather than spend less on other stuff, how the markets will react WRT belief in UK solvency and how the economics of 'guns and butter' make us all safer and better off.

    But he is silent about all this, how he is going to pay the interest (currently paid by additional borrowing) and pay it back. Having a plan without explaining the hard bit is the approach of the underpants gnomes.

    In this important regard he seems no better than the others.
    Don’t agree. Military spending isn’t really investment in that its return is limited (other than economic stimulus). We all need to pay higher taxes to pay for this, not borrow from our children.
    Spot on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    edited April 29

    Off topic, but important: Mitch McConnell, despite his impending retirement, and his serious health problems, is speaking out: Headlines often say that Americans don’t support U.S. aid to Ukraine, but real Americans say otherwise. They have consistently affirmed that Washington should aid Kyiv in resisting Russian aggression. Congress last year acted on that wish: Republican majorities on both armed services committees authorized $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for each of the next two years. Appropriators fully funded that authorization for fiscal 2026 with overwhelming support.

    Yet the Ukraine aid we passed months ago is now collecting dust at the Pentagon. When Senate appropriators have sought an explanation from the department’s policy shop, led by Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, they’ve been stonewalled.

    I'd say better late than never, but that is often not the case.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,501

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    The advantage is probably +1 for the GOP in Louisiana and possibly +1 in Alabama.

    Which would be a reversion to what it was in 2022.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    People may have no means of going, and I'm not sure how much it would cost to fund them to do so, though I agree with the basic suggestion that places to not have an inherent reason to continue on. They grow, they shrink, and some will disappear.

    Obviously we do everything in our power to prevent places growing when there is demand, but some still slips through.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,238

    We need a Red Pill Blue Pill moment. Life isn't supposed to be like this

    Our economy can't grow because working productivity is low
    Working productivity is low because so many people are miserable and depressed and broke
    You now need two wages to even have a chance of paying your bills
    We both have the worst social security in Europe in terms of what it pays and the highest cost ever

    So we need to take the other pill.

    I said earlier that if elected as leader of Sunderland council (as an example) that I would focus on streets and heritage. Get your teams working with residents to clean up their area. Pull the weeds, fill the cracks, repair the potholes. Buy some flagpoles and put actual flags up which go up and down. Get heritage boards up showcasing our proud community history.

    Create a buzz that gets people actually wanting to do shit together. Thanks also to the person posting the Guardian article about Newton Aycliffe town centre. A perfect example - absentee landlord doesn't give a Rat Fuck about the place their asset is in. CPO them, as Stockton have done. Literally bulldoze the most broken properties. Create mini arcade shops so that people can have a shop unit inside the bigger property for a peppercorn rent - a chance to trade and offer something different than the shitty chains now departing.

    That's a starter for 10. So much of the failure of our society is that people have given up. My town is fucked so why bother trying. No wonder fewer people work and productivity is low.

    Boosterism?

    No amount of enthusiasm is going to cure the demographics. 500,000 Brits are forecast to emigrate each year for the next 10 years. If immigration is reduced to a net 10,000 a year, will those who arrive have the skills and productivity (and taxpaying ability) to replace them?

    Everything will be driven by the numbers and mix of those coming in and leaving.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833
    edited April 29
    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited April 29

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,501
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833
    IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    Yes, but looking at a longer clip, it's been edited to make the police look bad. The suspect was refusing to let go of the knife at that point.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049474591593025847
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,501

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    We laugh in the face of $118.28.

    Now at $119.44.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    Housing minister Matthew Pennycook on rent controls just now: "We're not doing this. It's not a credible or serious policy proposition... we exhaustively went through the evidence... We've really, really alive to the potential detrimental consequences for renters"

    https://x.com/Smyth_Chris/status/2049515911690797514
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,331

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    Have you asked them how they feel? Many of us stick a mask on and pretend we're ok.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
    Everything north of the Tyne is better
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    The advantage is probably +1 for the GOP in Louisiana and possibly +1 in Alabama.

    Which would be a reversion to what it was in 2022.
    Very small beer in the great scheme of things. The Dems majority in the House will be maybe 40 or 50.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878

    Brent crude up $7 today to $118.28.

    Brace! Brace!

    We laugh in the face of $118.28.

    Now at $119.44.
    Yeah but that's priced in the plastic frippery that is the US dollar. I'm sure that.. (wait, what!...)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    Yes, but looking at a longer clip, it's been edited to make the police look bad. The suspect was refusing to let go of the knife at that point.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049474591593025847
    Yes, but looking at the details, the cop was kicking to make him give up his knife. He then gave up the knife and then the cop on the right was still stamping on his head.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,623

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    Have you asked them how they feel? Many of us stick a mask on and pretend we're ok.
    Yes I have. They feel fine.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,501

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    The advantage is probably +1 for the GOP in Louisiana and possibly +1 in Alabama.

    Which would be a reversion to what it was in 2022.
    Very small beer in the great scheme of things. The Dems majority in the House will be maybe 40 or 50.
    The majority in 2018 was 235-199 so not an unreasonable prediction.
  • London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    Its not that its bad. As you say it isn't for the majority. The issue is we have passed the peak and things are flatlining/declining, whereas expectations are for continuous improvement.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
    Everything north of the Tyne is better
    Durham is a First Class County.

    Northumberland is a Minor County.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
    Everything north of the Tyne is better
    Durham is a First Class County.

    Northumberland is a Minor County.
    Durham doesn’t even have a Hundred team
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858
    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 579

    I am encouraged Mr Burnham wants to spend more money on defence.

    Except he doesn't. He wants to BORROW money to pay for defence. Big difference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Enten: "These are the worst numbers I've ever seen for any president on inflation. Trump is 49 points underwater. Biden -- inflation absolutely crushed his presidency -- but at his worst he was only 43 points underwater. Trump is in a worse position on inflation than Jimmy Carter was!"

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049539902375637186


    Narrator: The inflation from the Straits has barely started
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
    Everything north of the Tyne is better
    Durham is a First Class County.

    Northumberland is a Minor County.
    Durham doesn’t even have a Hundred team
    Lucky old Durham.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    We need a Red Pill Blue Pill moment. Life isn't supposed to be like this

    Our economy can't grow because working productivity is low
    Working productivity is low because so many people are miserable and depressed and broke
    You now need two wages to even have a chance of paying your bills
    We both have the worst social security in Europe in terms of what it pays and the highest cost ever

    So we need to take the other pill.

    I said earlier that if elected as leader of Sunderland council (as an example) that I would focus on streets and heritage. Get your teams working with residents to clean up their area. Pull the weeds, fill the cracks, repair the potholes. Buy some flagpoles and put actual flags up which go up and down. Get heritage boards up showcasing our proud community history.

    Create a buzz that gets people actually wanting to do shit together. Thanks also to the person posting the Guardian article about Newton Aycliffe town centre. A perfect example - absentee landlord doesn't give a Rat Fuck about the place their asset is in. CPO them, as Stockton have done. Literally bulldoze the most broken properties. Create mini arcade shops so that people can have a shop unit inside the bigger property for a peppercorn rent - a chance to trade and offer something different than the shitty chains now departing.

    That's a starter for 10. So much of the failure of our society is that people have given up. My town is fucked so why bother trying. No wonder fewer people work and productivity is low.

    What you are proposing is pretty much exactly what Mayor Pete did in South Bend, Indiana.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    I get the impression that the Northumberland pit villages are doing significantly better than those in much of Durham.

    If so are there any particular reason ? Proximity to Newcastle or better communications perhaps ?
    Everything north of the Tyne is better
    Durham is a First Class County.

    Northumberland is a Minor County.
    Chester-la-Rue :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    The advantage is probably +1 for the GOP in Louisiana and possibly +1 in Alabama.

    Which would be a reversion to what it was in 2022.
    Very small beer in the great scheme of things. The Dems majority in the House will be maybe 40 or 50.
    Generic party ballot poll: 50:50

    https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2049132351817437601
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    Sandpit said:

    Seems like the SCOTUS may have handed another massive win to Trump in last couple of hours over voting rights act:



    The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act in the middle of primary season could create a potentially chaotic scramble among states that may consider drawing new maps.

    At least one outcome is clear: The decision will improve Republicans’ fortunes ahead of the midterm elections. How big of an advantage that becomes remains to be seen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/us/supreme-court-voting-rights

    The advantage is probably +1 for the GOP in Louisiana and possibly +1 in Alabama.

    Which would be a reversion to what it was in 2022.
    Very small beer in the great scheme of things. The Dems majority in the House will be maybe 40 or 50.
    Generic party ballot poll: 50:50

    https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2049132351817437601
    The Silver Bulletin average has the Dems 6 points up:

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    I've got a vague memory of there being some large organisation that used to distribute regeneration funds to the most deprived areas independent of the UK govt.... Perhaps @Fishing knows what it was?

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/20/cornwall-and-wales-benefited-from-eu/#:~:text=In recent years, the European,received them in the past.

    It's not just easy, it is unfortunately the truth to a large extent.
    Politicians may well need to ask themselves how they get voters to stop voting against their own interests, but they're battling right wing media operations promoting simplistic, xenophobic solutions

    What we need are simplistic solutions where we send one pound abroad to get seventy pence back.
    If you're in a former pit village in the NE then voting to leave the EU, lose your regeneration funding and see the Conservative government direct the funds from the smaller UK version to Tunbridge Wells is clearly a rational decision.
    A very well-made point.

    Interestingly the study I linked to seems to suggest that while the EU regen funding to the most deprived areas could lift them to the level where they were no longer in the most deprived category, when they then lost that funding they declined again. The regeneration doesn't stick, so either the regeneration needs to be an even higher level, for longer, or there's some other underlying issue. Clearly continuing funding to a region once it is less deprived than other regions is politically difficult (unless you're the Conservatives funding Tunbridge Wells etc).

    Sunak admission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62436193
    The underlying issue is that those pit villages have no reason to exit. They came into being because of a hole in the ground and they ceased to have purpose when that hole ran fallow. Spending money on them is a waste. The decent thing would have been to fund people moving out of them to places there is future - as we did when we shipped chunks of London to Milton Keynes - and then flatten them - as they are doing in the dead parts of Detroit. Except we imported masses of people removing anywhere for them to go, and then spent a fortune telling them it's all going to be ok after the *next* regeneration.
    There's a distinct difference between pit villages which have no reason to still exist (Durham, South Wales) and those pit villages which do have good reason to still exist (Yorkshire, Midlands).

    The first get boarded up houses being sold for a tenner, the second get new housing estates.

    This is a generations long pattern, here is a BBC program from 1969 about a declining Durham pit village with a doomed pit:

    1969: Craghead Colliery | A Year in the Life | BBC Archive

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQyxIH1Px20
    If you can only sell your house for £10, you can’t sell up and move to another area, so it’s a vicious circle.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Enten: "These are the worst numbers I've ever seen for any president on inflation. Trump is 49 points underwater. Biden -- inflation absolutely crushed his presidency -- but at his worst he was only 43 points underwater. Trump is in a worse position on inflation than Jimmy Carter was!"

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049539902375637186


    Narrator: The inflation from the Straits has barely started

    Which is why Starmer is (should be) safe. No new PM wants the forthcoming cost of living crisis to define their first six months. Should be as that relies on candidates for PM having an inkling of common sense and economic understanding, which might be asking a tad too much.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 579

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    He was holding onto the knife and hiding it under his body. You can see it in the video.

    The American policy in such cases is to dump all the bullets into the suspect.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    The media aren’t interested in people that are doing ok. They only want to tell us about the poor and miserable ones, especially if they can pin the mental health badge onto them.
  • scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
  • IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    Are you fucking serious?

    He’s just stabbed two Jews and is still holding a knife and resisting. In literally any other country on earth he would have been shot dead. He’s incredibly lucky
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833

    scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    We ramped up foreign aid during that period. The problem is that we were too internationalist and needed to look after our own first.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
  • OT - Yup, Rochdale Pioneers has this one bang on!
  • scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
    Yes, that's what happens when you inherit one of the largest budget deficits in the EU.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,672
    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?
  • scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
    Yes, that's what happens when you inherit one of the largest budget deficits in the EU.
    Do you think we might have been able to cut something else other than the police?

    Of all the things to cut, that has to be the dumbest.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    All the polls tell me is people want change. But do they want Reform change? Not convinced.

    I still think Kemi has a legitimate chance of being change.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    edited April 29
    Deleted duplicate.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    edited April 29
    Deleted. Duplicate.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    If we had compulsory voting, with a NOTA option, NOTA would win an absolute majority. It would be a deserved majority.
  • Leon said:

    Sundowners. Zebra behind us hippos in front, fish eagles all around



    It is just such a stunning place for adventures.

    If you ever get the chance, jump at going to the Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.
    I have done Ngorongoro and the landscapes are peerless and the noom is intense. Tho honestly the game viewing is actually better here in Akegawa

    I have had superior game experiences in Zambia. In Kafue and Luangwa at the end of the Dry. But other than that this is top class

    And only here in Rwanda can you combine superb classic safari with mountain gorillas a few hours away
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,672

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    If we had compulsory voting, with a NOTA option, NOTA would win an absolute majority. It would be a deserved majority.
    Yes but as Labour discovered, simply saying "change" without enunciating what that means, only gets you so far.

    For some, I suspect "change" is more about a reversion to what they once knew - nostalgia ain't what it used to be as someone once said, but the past can be appealing if the future looks difficult and dangerous.

    For others, and without calling a spade a garden implement, it's about immigration and "boats".

    In more practical terms, how do you reduce fly tipping, how do you re-invigorate the High Street and how do you get more Police on the streets? These are slogans I've seen from leaflets here in East Ham but without a single syllable of explanation as to how these desirable aims are to be achieved.
This discussion has been closed.