Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
Also in the early days of the church sainthood was by acclamation anyway, did that apply then? Though he is often referred to as 'Venerable' which implies only the first step along the way. OTOH the are Anglican churches dedicated to St Bede so clearly he is recognised as being a saint even without the Catholic formalisation of it much later. Anyway I'm no expert and I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will chip in.
If we're discussing our patron saint, do we really care what might be the precise rules of the Catholic Church ? Bede was a seriously good egg, which is what counts.
What is the spread compared with US, German, French, etc bonds?
France for example is at 3.70 . Eurozone countries tend to get shielded to a degree because of the ECB which means their debt is viewed as less risky .
New: Cat Little, cabinet office permanent secretary, disputes Olly Robbins’ evidence to the foreign affairs select committee
Little says the Cabinet Office did NOT try to avoid Mandelson getting DV as Robbins claimed
Robbins told the committee the Cabinet Office’s position was that Mandelson did not need to undergo vetting
Little says she can produce an audit trail showing in fact there was a debate between security officials and the Cabinet Office advised the Foreign Office that Mandelson SHOULD undergo DV vetting
And she says the question was brought up by the Foreign Office
What an almighty mess. This is just going to on and on until Starmer is gone.
That’s not what Robbins said. He said that there was pressure to get it done and that Mandelson’s appointment was announced before it was done.
The Patron saint of Palestine, which we imported via returning Crusaders.
LOL
The St George was a Palestinian ‘hot take’
BTW as sorry I am for your teams relegation, especially as you seem a decent guy, I did put a fiver on them at 5/4 to go down after a post lf yours here.
I didn't say that St George was a Palestinian, merely that he is the Patron Saint of Palestine (as well as a number of other places, including Moscow).
But it was returning Crusader Knights that popularised St George in England, and paradoxically the lack of a local shrine was part of the reason, other rivals being particularly associated with regions of England.
And Georgia - their flag is a rip off of England's 😁
Happy St George's Day!
What's this? St George changed their name to Georgia and self-identified as gender-fluid?
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Brilliant reporting from @PronouncedAlva here. Polanski has certainly been on a journey - from Lib Dem centrist to Corbyn’s heir. Now he says he was wrong to have criticised Corbyn on antisemitism.
He’s an utter loon.
I was thinking of voting Green in the District election, as the local candidate seems to have some sensible policies and I think the LD/Localist coalition could do with some opposition other than from the Tories who are the party of SUV-owning nimbies.
But from what I've seen of the direction taken by the Greens nationally I don't think I can in all conscience do that.
I'm well established as a voter for the local friendly Green councillors having voted for them in locals since Corbyn ascended in 2015 as one of my out routes from an individual who clearly had issues with the West and was a potential prime minister.
My council vote is not currently in doubt, the possible parliamentary vote for one of those sensible types if it looks the best way of defeating Reform is in doubt. I was already on the page of giving some benefit of some doubt to Labour, and the more Polanski fishes in the Corbyn pool, though I don't think he is anywhere near to Tunis graveyard level yet, and looks likely to lead a substantial parliamentary party, the more benefit of more doubt Labour are likely to get with me.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
Sure, or sortition, or going back to MPs choosing leaders instead of party members, or lots of options, just not what we have.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
Ref UK will like him, as will cricket munchkins - the patron Saint of Boundaries.
St Botolph-without-Bishopsgate in the City of London has one of the great churchyards of the City, which contains an ex-Livery Hall as the church hall with Coade Stone statues, a tennis court you can hire, and a Victorian turkish bath. It is also one of the larger City Parks.
I didn't know he was actually patron saint of boundaries. I was aware of all the London churches being by gates, but just assumed it was a London thing. And yes have often been in the Bishopsgate gardens and even sang in the church once many years ago at a very posh wedding!
Edity - I should really have known this too as a one time geographer!
I have a thing for City of London Churches, and visited and photographed them all before quality digital cameras were anything like affordable - I used the old APS system - when I was living near City Road for a couple of years in the late 1990s. I would love to have bought a dual aspect flat between City Road and the HAC with a balcony overlooking the cricket ground, but the budget was a bit too limited.
This St Botolph is also a longstanding "inclusive church". They provided an office for the Lesbian and Gay Christian Movement as far back as the late 1970s, until the Archdeacon of London took legal action in 1989.
The most way-out thing I ran into looking up St Botolph for the comment was a 2023 proposal for an "air rights" building which would cantilever half way over the listed Turkish Bath.
So the discussion at work is to get rid of St George, St Andrew, and St David and have one single British patron saint.
Who would you choose as Britain’s new patron saint?
I alluded to this earlier - St. Alban. He is probably fictitious - but his name is literally 'St. Great Britain' (etymologically Alban = Alba = Albion".
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
In the process of disclosing to MPs information relevant to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, one document is weirdly absent, as Cat Little, chief operating officer of the civil service told MPs in answer to a question from John Whittingdale. It is a minute and note of the meeting in which the prime minister gave instructions that Peter Mandelson should be appointed to Washington. Ms Little said her team was still looking for it
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
As an aside, that is one thing which the gerrymandering debate in the US often ignores.
Congressional seats operate on FPTP, so however "fair" electoral maps are (and there are also heated arguments about how to define fair, even among those who are genuinely in favour of fairness), they will always result in disproportionate outcomes in Red and Blue states.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
St. Dr. Bede? Or Dr. St. Bede?
The Church of England celebrates him on 25 May.
So coincides roughly with the existing late May (Whitsun) bank holiday.
Id say quite an eye raising new MRP poll - Tories pushing Ref for largest party
As I said last year my expectation is that the Tories will be at about 27-29% and reform down on 20-22% by the end of this year and by the time the election rolls around I think the Tories will sit at about 31-33% with Reform down to about 15%. They just need to hold to their current course.
It won't be a massive victory or a landslide but right now the Tories are on course for at least most seats at the next GE IMO. Again Labour screwing up on jobs and tax really opened the door and Starmer being a complete shitbird has helped rehabilitate thr final years of Rishi/Hunt.
Fascinating, and all huge if true. And this MRP is nowhere close to previous efforts. A possible multiple tectonic plate shift: up to recently the reason for not voting Tory, and voting Labour (or LD where relevant) instead is that the Tories are Reformlite and would partner with Reform.
With Labour a wreckage, and if Tories competitive or ahead of Reform, voting Tory starts to look possible. Though they need a new leader. Labour's new leader before the GE would be another plate shifting.
Damn, I find myself obliged to agree with Tim Montgomerie.
The enthusiasm and relentlessness with which the political-media-establishment discuss scandals like Boris' birthday cake, Mandelson's vetting and taking the knee etc... while defence cuts, family breakdown and our workforce's poor technical skillas have never got anything like the same intensity of attention and as sure as night follows day we end up with no real military, exploding welfare bills and a low productivity economy. Now, that is scandalous. https://x.com/montie/status/2047019533861364117
So the discussion at work is to get rid of St George, St Andrew, and St David and have one single British patron saint.
Who would you choose as Britain’s new patron saint?
I alluded to this earlier - St. Alban. He is probably fictitious - but his name is literally 'St. Great Britain' (etymologically Alban = Alba = Albion".
Saint Frideswide. Time for a woman. And an Oxford chap, to boot.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
Although the poll quoted is of 2024 Labour voters (~one-third of the voters) so it's not just due to party memberships being out of touch with the voters.
So the discussion at work is to get rid of St George, St Andrew, and St David and have one single British patron saint.
Who would you choose as Britain’s new patron saint?
I alluded to this earlier - St. Alban. He is probably fictitious - but his name is literally 'St. Great Britain' (etymologically Alban = Alba = Albion".
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
Damn, I find myself obliged to agree with Tim Montgomerie.
The enthusiasm and relentlessness with which the political-media-establishment discuss scandals like Boris' birthday cake, Mandelson's vetting and taking the knee etc... while defence cuts, family breakdown and our workforce's poor technical skillas have never got anything like the same intensity of attention and as sure as night follows day we end up with no real military, exploding welfare bills and a low productivity economy. Now, that is scandalous. https://x.com/montie/status/2047019533861364117
Not to mention the criminal gangs taking over every high street in the country. Neither the UK government nor local authorities nor the police seem capable of dealing with it, hiding in plain sight. We're dependent on the BBC to blow the whistle:
This puts our pitiful efforts at sleaze into context.
I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.
On April 21st, the left screen moved first.
I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.
At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.
On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.
At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.
Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.
I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.
My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.
The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:
Reviewed.
That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one...
This puts our pitiful efforts at sleaze into context.
I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.
On April 21st, the left screen moved first.
I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.
At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.
On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.
At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.
Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.
I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.
My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.
The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:
Reviewed.
That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one...
(contd) Let me show you my flags.
March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.
March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.
April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.
April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.
April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.
That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.
The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.
So the discussion at work is to get rid of St George, St Andrew, and St David and have one single British patron saint.
Who would you choose as Britain’s new patron saint?
I alluded to this earlier - St. Alban. He is probably fictitious - but his name is literally 'St. Great Britain' (etymologically Alban = Alba = Albion".
I thought it meant St White
Well, take this with all the authority of "bloke off the internet told me" - i.e. you may be right - but "St. Great Britain" was my understanding.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
So join a party.
I have considered joining all of them just for the leadership vote. Doesn't feel right, but yes, perhaps I should.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
Also in the early days of the church sainthood was by acclamation anyway, did that apply then? Though he is often referred to as 'Venerable' which implies only the first step along the way. OTOH the are Anglican churches dedicated to St Bede so clearly he is recognised as being a saint even without the Catholic formalisation of it much later. Anyway I'm no expert and I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will chip in.
If we're discussing our patron saint, do we really care what might be the precise rules of the Catholic Church ? Bede was a seriously good egg, which is what counts.
The Church of England doesn't have a canonization process but tends to accept decisions of the Catholic Church in the matter
Damn, I find myself obliged to agree with Tim Montgomerie.
The enthusiasm and relentlessness with which the political-media-establishment discuss scandals like Boris' birthday cake, Mandelson's vetting and taking the knee etc... while defence cuts, family breakdown and our workforce's poor technical skillas have never got anything like the same intensity of attention and as sure as night follows day we end up with no real military, exploding welfare bills and a low productivity economy. Now, that is scandalous. https://x.com/montie/status/2047019533861364117
Thus far most would agree with TM. But his next words would be 'It therefore follows that Reform running the country is the right answer'. Which is more doubtful.
Id say quite an eye raising new MRP poll - Tories pushing Ref for largest party
As I said last year my expectation is that the Tories will be at about 27-29% and reform down on 20-22% by the end of this year and by the time the election rolls around I think the Tories will sit at about 31-33% with Reform down to about 15%. They just need to hold to their current course.
It won't be a massive victory or a landslide but right now the Tories are on course for at least most seats at the next GE IMO. Again Labour screwing up on jobs and tax really opened the door and Starmer being a complete shitbird has helped rehabilitate thr final years of Rishi/Hunt.
And what happens when Reform and the Greens get massive positive publicity from doing well in the local elections (and the Tories and Labour badly)? The above analysis just seems to assume current trends will persist over 2-3 years with nothing knocking them off course.
Damn, I find myself obliged to agree with Tim Montgomerie.
The enthusiasm and relentlessness with which the political-media-establishment discuss scandals like Boris' birthday cake, Mandelson's vetting and taking the knee etc... while defence cuts, family breakdown and our workforce's poor technical skillas have never got anything like the same intensity of attention and as sure as night follows day we end up with no real military, exploding welfare bills and a low productivity economy. Now, that is scandalous. https://x.com/montie/status/2047019533861364117
Thus far most would agree with TM. But his next words would be 'It therefore follows that Reform running the country is the right answer'. Which is more doubtful.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
Although the poll quoted is of 2024 Labour voters (~one-third of the voters) so it's not just due to party memberships being out of touch with the voters.
Sure, the wider public also want high spending, low taxes, excellent unlimited healthcare, low immigration with plenty of carers and nurses on good pay but at low cost to the exchequer, so aren't likely to be fans of the realism of Streeting and Mahmood either, but it is worse within the party memberships.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
Sure, or sortition, or going back to MPs choosing leaders instead of party members, or lots of options, just not what we have.
Another option if we can't go back to MPs choosing leaders could be open primaries for any leadership of a party with over 100 MPs.
Just contacted my GP by Online booking. They replied "we have arranged a "soon type appointment"". It's in three weeks. Glad it was soon.
Ah, good old SoonTM.
I had to go to A&E last week. In and out in about an hour. Wound dressed and referred back to GP, where follow-up (with nurse) was on day specified, and again took about 10 minutes.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
St. Dr. Bede? Or Dr. St. Bede?
The Church of England celebrates him on 25 May.
A pedant notes that 25 May is an innovation. The Book of Common Prayer of 1662 commemorates Bede on 27 May.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
St. Dr. Bede? Or Dr. St. Bede?
The Church of England celebrates him on 25 May.
A pedant notes that 25 May is an innovation. The Book of Common Prayer of 1662 commemorates Bede on 27 May.
Apparently there is a clash with St Augustine of Cantervury
Just to be clear, I am not and never will be a Burnham fan. I am utterly convinced he’s not got any ideas that I’ve heard.
But he’s clearly Labour’s best option now.
Westminster record
* Voted for the Iraq War. * Backed the 2004 introduction of higher tuition fees. * Senior health minister in the period leading into the Mid Staffs scandal (later apologised, but it still sits on the CV).
Leadership bids
* 2010: finished 4th, eliminated early. * 2015: started as a frontrunner, ended up squeezed out by Corbyn. Campaign dogged by charges of positioning and inconsistency (not least on welfare abstentions).
Political style
* Long-time Labour insider who often presents as an outsider. * Tendency to track where the party mood is going rather than set it.
Mayoral record
* Effective regional advocate, especially on transport and Covid-era funding rows. * But the Clean Air Zone reversal stands out: shifted from a charging scheme to a non-charging model under pressure. Pragmatism or retreat, depending on taste.
Burnham’s reputation has improved markedly since leaving Westminster. But the parliamentary record is that of a conventional New Labour minister with some difficult baggage and two failed leadership runs. The “next PM” framing relies heavily on his mayoral reinvention holding up under national scrutiny.
Personally, I’ve never liked him, but that may just be my own prejudices and a lingering dislike of the whole New Labour schtick showing through.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
Sure, or sortition, or going back to MPs choosing leaders instead of party members, or lots of options, just not what we have.
Another option if we can't go back to MPs choosing leaders could be open primaries for any leadership of a party with over 100 MPs.
One of the problems Corbyn had - besides many personal failings - is that he was the choice of the party membership forced onto the MPs. Imagine how much worse it would be for a leader chosen by an open primary to be forced onto the membership and MPs of a party.
Just to be clear, I am not and never will be a Burnham fan. I am utterly convinced he’s not got any ideas that I’ve heard.
But he’s clearly Labour’s best option now.
Westminster record
* Voted for the Iraq War. * Backed the 2004 introduction of higher tuition fees. * Senior health minister in the period leading into the Mid Staffs scandal (later apologised, but it still sits on the CV).
Leadership bids
* 2010: finished 4th, eliminated early. * 2015: started as a frontrunner, ended up squeezed out by Corbyn. Campaign dogged by charges of positioning and inconsistency (not least on welfare abstentions).
Political style
* Long-time Labour insider who often presents as an outsider. * Tendency to track where the party mood is going rather than set it.
Mayoral record
* Effective regional advocate, especially on transport and Covid-era funding rows. * But the Clean Air Zone reversal stands out: shifted from a charging scheme to a non-charging model under pressure. Pragmatism or retreat, depending on taste.
Burnham’s reputation has improved markedly since leaving Westminster. But the parliamentary record is that of a conventional New Labour minister with some difficult baggage and two failed leadership runs. The “next PM” framing relies heavily on his mayoral reinvention holding up under national scrutiny.
Personally, I’ve never liked him, but that may just be my own prejudices and a lingering dislike of the whole New Labour schtick showing through.
Bit in bold is simply untrue. He became Health Minister in June 2009 and launched the inquiry the following month. The height of the failings were in 2005-2006. A junior minister can't be held to the same level of accountability. When in charge he put in motion uncovering what went on.
If nothing else comes from this conflict, getting these often dangerous and unseaworthy vessels out of the world’s oceans is definitely a good thing, not to mention that they almost exclusively trade with sanctioned nations such as Iran, Russia, North Korea…
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I think this makes the mistake of being led by what voters say, rather than what leaders will do and how that impacts what voters do.
Pretty confident that without tackling immigration and at least some attempt at balancing the books Labour would fail regardless of whether Labour 24 voters today prefer candidates who would rather avoid those tasks.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
Just contacted my GP by Online booking. They replied "we have arranged a "soon type appointment"". It's in three weeks. Glad it was soon.
Ah, good old SoonTM.
I had to go to A&E last week. In and out in about an hour. Wound dressed and referred back to GP, where follow-up (with nurse) was on day specified, and again took about 10 minutes.
On the topic of medical anecdotes I spent some time yesterday waiting in the reception of a medical facility nearby with stunning views over the hills of the Sheeps Head and Mizen peninsulas (I was too mesmerised by the view to think to take a photo).
I would defy anyone to have had a better view from the reception of a medical facility, anywhere in the world.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I think this makes the mistake of being led by what voters say, rather than what leaders will do and how that impacts what voters do.
Pretty confident that without tackling immigration and at least some attempt at balancing the books Labour would fail regardless of whether Labour 24 voters today prefer candidates who would rather avoid those tasks.
My biggest concern with Burnham is he’ll throw out the migration reforms Mahmood has been doing.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
Sure, or sortition, or going back to MPs choosing leaders instead of party members, or lots of options, just not what we have.
Another option if we can't go back to MPs choosing leaders could be open primaries for any leadership of a party with over 100 MPs.
One of the problems Corbyn had - besides many personal failings - is that he was the choice of the party membership forced onto the MPs. Imagine how much worse it would be for a leader chosen by an open primary to be forced onto the membership and MPs of a party.
Not sure that would be the case. An open primary would drag leaders towards the centre (MPs are less extreme than members in all parties) and show that they are broadly electable (MPs want to keep their seats so like electable leaders). Corbyn failed to maintain support as MPs thought him extreme (on some stuff) and unelectable.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I think this makes the mistake of being led by what voters say, rather than what leaders will do and how that impacts what voters do.
Pretty confident that without tackling immigration and at least some attempt at balancing the books Labour would fail regardless of whether Labour 24 voters today prefer candidates who would rather avoid those tasks.
My biggest concern with Burnham is he’ll throw out the migration reforms Mahmood has been doing.
And if Labour don't tackle it, then it boosts Reforms chances of winning and things like "repatriation" come into play.
Id say quite an eye raising new MRP poll - Tories pushing Ref for largest party
As I said last year my expectation is that the Tories will be at about 27-29% and reform down on 20-22% by the end of this year and by the time the election rolls around I think the Tories will sit at about 31-33% with Reform down to about 15%. They just need to hold to their current course.
It won't be a massive victory or a landslide but right now the Tories are on course for at least most seats at the next GE IMO. Again Labour screwing up on jobs and tax really opened the door and Starmer being a complete shitbird has helped rehabilitate thr final years of Rishi/Hunt.
Fascinating, and all huge if true. And this MRP is nowhere close to previous efforts. A possible multiple tectonic plate shift: up to recently the reason for not voting Tory, and voting Labour (or LD where relevant) instead is that the Tories are Reformlite and would partner with Reform.
With Labour a wreckage, and if Tories competitive or ahead of Reform, voting Tory starts to look possible. Though they need a new leader. Labour's new leader before the GE would be another plate shifting.
I think Labour and Tories will be closely tied for first.
Just to be clear, I am not and never will be a Burnham fan. I am utterly convinced he’s not got any ideas that I’ve heard.
But he’s clearly Labour’s best option now.
Westminster record
* Voted for the Iraq War. * Backed the 2004 introduction of higher tuition fees. * Senior health minister in the period leading into the Mid Staffs scandal (later apologised, but it still sits on the CV).
Leadership bids
* 2010: finished 4th, eliminated early. * 2015: started as a frontrunner, ended up squeezed out by Corbyn. Campaign dogged by charges of positioning and inconsistency (not least on welfare abstentions).
Political style
* Long-time Labour insider who often presents as an outsider. * Tendency to track where the party mood is going rather than set it.
Mayoral record
* Effective regional advocate, especially on transport and Covid-era funding rows. * But the Clean Air Zone reversal stands out: shifted from a charging scheme to a non-charging model under pressure. Pragmatism or retreat, depending on taste.
Burnham’s reputation has improved markedly since leaving Westminster. But the parliamentary record is that of a conventional New Labour minister with some difficult baggage and two failed leadership runs. The “next PM” framing relies heavily on his mayoral reinvention holding up under national scrutiny.
Personally, I’ve never liked him, but that may just be my own prejudices and a lingering dislike of the whole New Labour schtick showing through.
Bit in bold is simply untrue. He became Health Minister in June 2009 and launched the inquiry the following month. The height of the failings were in 2005-2006. A junior minister can't be held to the same level of accountability. When in charge he put in motion uncovering what went on.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Burnham, for his work on the Hillsborough inquiry.
He went to the memorial service at Anfield as sports minister, was booed and jeered by the crowd, but unlike many sports ministers before him decided to actually do something about it.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
What do you want him to do? No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them. Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start. Anything more call a magician.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
62% of Britons see the Labour government as at least as sleazy and disreputable as the previous Conservative government
More sleazy: 32% About as sleazy: 30% Less sleazy: 24%
That is pretty damning poll findings for Keir Starmer's Labour Government considering they have been in power for less than two years when compared to the Conservative party who were in Office for fourteen years before they lost the last GE.
Shows how badly engaged the British public is
Last Con Govts Johnson £800k loan facility £bns PPE contracts to donors / friends (Mone, Meller, Marks etc)
PWC, Fujitsu, KPMG, Capita etc probably "donate" to both parties, with in kind assistance to embed their people
The reality is that with the way public sector procurement works they're the only organisations big enough to afford to do it and jump through all the hoops with anything vaguely approaching the capability.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
What do you want him to do? No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them. Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start. Anything more call a magician.
But Burnham was and is in the London elite before he left for Manchester? He’s obviously changed but his tradition is not of an outsider at all.
I agree with everything you’ve said. But without any actual ideas we’re going to be back in an identical position in a year. Not getting into scandals is of course a requirement but that doesn’t mean you’ll win. Ed M was pretty clear of scandal but was rubbish.
He’d be best to carry on much of what this government has done under the hood but quietly ditch other things.
Devolution could be an interesting counter to Reform but would need to counter immigration. From what I’ve read of him, he’s not been very strong on tackling it.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
It seems bizarre to me that Labour will pick a candidate with as many public gaffes as she’s had. She will be Labour’s Truss without a miracle.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Another argument in favour of PR ?
Sure, or sortition, or going back to MPs choosing leaders instead of party members, or lots of options, just not what we have.
Another option if we can't go back to MPs choosing leaders could be open primaries for any leadership of a party with over 100 MPs.
One of the problems Corbyn had - besides many personal failings - is that he was the choice of the party membership forced onto the MPs. Imagine how much worse it would be for a leader chosen by an open primary to be forced onto the membership and MPs of a party.
Not sure that would be the case. An open primary would drag leaders towards the centre (MPs are less extreme than members in all parties) and show that they are broadly electable (MPs want to keep their seats so like electable leaders). Corbyn failed to maintain support as MPs thought him extreme (on some stuff) and unelectable.
I feel like it is attempting to graft an element of a presidential system onto a parliamentary one.
The main issue that arises is one of mandate. If a party's leader has been selected by an open primary - potentially involving more direct votes in their favour than any other British election - and the party they lead gains a Commons majority, then it becomes incredibly hard for MPs to remove that leader when they have lost confidence in them, because by doing so they would be going against all those primary voters.
Thus you have something akin to an executive President in a parliamentary system, aka a great big mess.
No 10 has come out fighting after calls for Keir Starmer to face a privileges committee probe.
The PM's spokesperson tells reporters "I don't accept" he misled parliament by denying pressure had been put on Olly Robbins to approve Mandelson's appointment through the vetting process.
"There is a distinction between the government asking for updates about an appointment process and any suggestion that there was pressure on the vetting outcome, and that was the question that Prime Minister was responding to yesterday…
"We don't accept that asking for updates on the progress of an appointment amounts to pressure in relation to the vetting process or outcome."
62% of Britons see the Labour government as at least as sleazy and disreputable as the previous Conservative government
More sleazy: 32% About as sleazy: 30% Less sleazy: 24%
That is pretty damning poll findings for Keir Starmer's Labour Government considering they have been in power for less than two years when compared to the Conservative party who were in Office for fourteen years before they lost the last GE.
Shows how badly engaged the British public is
Last Con Govts Johnson £800k loan facility £bns PPE contracts to donors / friends (Mone, Meller, Marks etc)
PWC, Fujitsu, KPMG, Capita etc probably "donate" to both parties, with in kind assistance to embed their people
The reality is that with the way public sector procurement works they're the only organisations big enough to afford to do it and jump through all the hoops with anything vaguely approaching the capability.
And why is public sector procurement like that? Surely it's completely unrelated to lobbing by firms like PWC and Capita! They will always be arguing for more regulation, more compliance, knowing that they can carry the cost but smaller competition can't.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
62% of Britons see the Labour government as at least as sleazy and disreputable as the previous Conservative government
More sleazy: 32% About as sleazy: 30% Less sleazy: 24%
That is pretty damning poll findings for Keir Starmer's Labour Government considering they have been in power for less than two years when compared to the Conservative party who were in Office for fourteen years before they lost the last GE.
Shows how badly engaged the British public is
Last Con Govts Johnson £800k loan facility £bns PPE contracts to donors / friends (Mone, Meller, Marks etc)
PWC, Fujitsu, KPMG, Capita etc probably "donate" to both parties, with in kind assistance to embed their people
The reality is that with the way public sector procurement works they're the only organisations big enough to afford to do it and jump through all the hoops with anything vaguely approaching the capability.
And why is public sector procurement like that? Surely it's completely unrelated to lobbing by firms like PWC and Capita! They will always be arguing for more regulation, more compliance, knowing that they can carry the cost but smaller competition can't.
Maybe so, but I think the answer is less interesting than that. They take zero risk, like taking their time and love policy and process - so it drives them to those organisations as an answer.
It’s that day in the year when the most annoying people on earth say “AcKshUaLly St George WaS SyRiaN and WoulD be A RefUgee”
That bit doesn't bother me. What does is that England has a patron saint who isn't English and has no association with England. Could have picked someone worthy.
We could always switch to St Edmund. Plus it's a good excuse of a bank holiday in that long slog towards Christmas.
I think St Botolph needs a revival. Just for the name.
I'd go for Bede (though I'm not sure he's officially a saint ?).
I think he is, the Catholic Church made him a Doctor of the Church in 1899 and I think that included formal canonisation
St. Dr. Bede? Or Dr. St. Bede?
The Church of England celebrates him on 25 May.
A pedant notes that 25 May is an innovation. The Book of Common Prayer of 1662 commemorates Bede on 27 May.
Apparently there is a clash with St Augustine of Cantervury
A pedant notes further that the Church of England, both anciently and now marks Augustine of Canterbury on 26 May.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
What do you want him to do? No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them. Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start. Anything more call a magician.
But Burnham was and is in the London elite before he left for Manchester? He’s obviously changed but his tradition is not of an outsider at all.
I agree with everything you’ve said. But without any actual ideas we’re going to be back in an identical position in a year. Not getting into scandals is of course a requirement but that doesn’t mean you’ll win. Ed M was pretty clear of scandal but was rubbish.
He’d be best to carry on much of what this government has done under the hood but quietly ditch other things.
Devolution could be an interesting counter to Reform but would need to counter immigration. From what I’ve read of him, he’s not been very strong on tackling it.
He was MP for Leigh who got to Cambridge from his local comp. Unless you class being in London as an MP and Minister to do your job as "London elite?" In which case we'd be pretty short of any politician at all to fulfill that criterion.
62% of Britons see the Labour government as at least as sleazy and disreputable as the previous Conservative government
More sleazy: 32% About as sleazy: 30% Less sleazy: 24%
That is pretty damning poll findings for Keir Starmer's Labour Government considering they have been in power for less than two years when compared to the Conservative party who were in Office for fourteen years before they lost the last GE.
Shows how badly engaged the British public is
Last Con Govts Johnson £800k loan facility £bns PPE contracts to donors / friends (Mone, Meller, Marks etc)
PWC, Fujitsu, KPMG, Capita etc probably "donate" to both parties, with in kind assistance to embed their people
The reality is that with the way public sector procurement works they're the only organisations big enough to afford to do it and jump through all the hoops with anything vaguely approaching the capability.
Even they often don't have the capability, but they end up subcontracting (sometimes to multiple levels). So you have a system where the procurement process is so complicated that it's effectively outsourced to the big players who end up running their own procurement process to find the people who end up doing the work.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
What do you want him to do? No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them. Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start. Anything more call a magician.
But Burnham was and is in the London elite before he left for Manchester? He’s obviously changed but his tradition is not of an outsider at all.
I agree with everything you’ve said. But without any actual ideas we’re going to be back in an identical position in a year. Not getting into scandals is of course a requirement but that doesn’t mean you’ll win. Ed M was pretty clear of scandal but was rubbish.
He’d be best to carry on much of what this government has done under the hood but quietly ditch other things.
Devolution could be an interesting counter to Reform but would need to counter immigration. From what I’ve read of him, he’s not been very strong on tackling it.
He was MP for Leigh who got to Cambridge from his local comp. Unless you class being in London as an MP and Minister to do your job as "London elite?" In which case we'd be pretty short of any politician at all to fulfill that criterion.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
a hair dryer at a Paris airport broke Polymarket weather markets & made someone $34,000 richer
- polymarket was settling Paris temperature bets on a single Météo France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle runway perimeter - basically unguarded
- the guy bought the long-shot outcome (like "22°C" when everyone expected 18°C) for pennies, since nobody thought it'd hit
- then he walked up to the probe and briefly heated the air around it with a portable heat source, spiking the reading just long enough to register as the daily max
- temperature snapped back to normal in minutes, the market resolved in his favor, and he cashed out - twice, on April 6 and April 15, before Météo France caught on and filed charges https://x.com/aaronjmars/status/2047017251270734309
Other than the separation of fools from their money, what actual crime has this chap committed?
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
Rayner is to be fair not especially left.
I think she’d be a very good item in the Burnham or Streeting governments but not to lead them.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
As I said, probably not with Rayner but, like the Sun in Liverpool, the public just walk away from the traditional Press + Broadcasters. We've already seen some of this play out around Brexit and Corbyn.
Anthony Seldon thinks Starmer should bring back even more figures from the Blair era "to make the progressive dream happen", with Blair himself as foregin secretary. It's pure nostalgia.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
Rayner is to be fair not especially left.
I think she’d be a very good item in the Burnham or Streeting governments but not to lead them.
It doesn't matter how far left she actually is. From the viewpoint of the right wing, privately educated, mysogynist, snobs who own our media she is simultaneously scary and open for ridicule.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
As I said, probably not with Rayner but, like the Sun in Liverpool, the public just walk away from the traditional Press + Broadcasters. We've already seen some of this play out around Brexit and Corbyn.
That won't help a Labour led Rayner. It is fine for the billionaire press barons who are also heavily involved with social media, where they can have more direct control and interactions with the public.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Commenters on this board regularly miss that Burnham is popular. We always hear "he couldn't win a by election". Well. He's consistently outpolled the Labour Party by a country mile in GM.
I’ve got no doubt he’s popular and would win a by-election. I also think he’d raise Labour’s poll ratings a lot in the short term.
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Not being Keir Starmer would be a start. Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible. But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
Okay but again, what does he actually want to do?
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
What do you want him to do? No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them. Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start. Anything more call a magician.
Not quite enough. To answer, on behalf of a putative PM, that there are no great answers, and ask what someone else wants is not the stuff of being a PM. Being a PM is about trust, vision, capacity, problem solving, good communication, team building and retention, intelligence and leadership. It's hard. That's why we mostly mostly don't want the job, while asking it of those who do.
In particular it is fair to ask and expect the Burnhams and the Farages etc about the essential bits of the state they are less interested in. I want to know from Farage about his plans for the successful and respectful assimilation of minorities and the Islamic population. I want to know from Burnham about whether he believes the solution to the government debt crisis is to increase the debt by £130 billion a year or whether he has a better plan and if so what it is. Etc.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
Worse than that.
When a new PM is chosen mid-term (which has happened a lot recently), the general public have no input at all, and MPs mostly only get to generate the shortlist. Beyond that, it comes down to one of these small groups of frankly weird people.
OK, democracy is more effective at rejecting afterwards than electing beforehand, but it's a heck of a flaw.
Pressure v asking for updates this is quite subjective .
It seems now that Robbins has confirmed Starmer didn’t know and wasn’t lying about knowing Mandelson had issues with the vetting , the media have now moved onto this ridiculous attempt re the Priviliges Committee .
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
Rayner is to be fair not especially left.
I think she’d be a very good item in the Burnham or Streeting governments but not to lead them.
Pressure v asking for updates this is quite subjective .
It seems now that Robbins has confirmed Starmer didn’t know and wasn’t lying about knowing Mandelson had issues with the vetting , the media have now moved onto this ridiculous attempt re the Priviliges Committee .
This is irrelevant as has been said.
Starmer appointed Mandelson. Risk but backfired. He should resign for that.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
I think this is where a change to use a PR voting system could help Britain. It would force politicians to work across party lines, instead of simply pandering to their base.
The combined membership of the political parties is 1-2% of the adult population, yet effectively they decide our PMs between them. The rest of us get left with a choice between dumb and dumber.
Worse than that.
When a new PM is chosen mid-term (which has happened a lot recently), the general public have no input at all, and MPs mostly only get to generate the shortlist. Beyond that, it comes down to one of these small groups of frankly weird people.
OK, democracy is more effective at rejecting afterwards than electing beforehand, but it's a heck of a flaw.
Disagree there. I think MPs choosing the PM is fine. Voters should take more care in who we elect as MPs.
Most 2024 Labour voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham, while also tending to see Angela Rayner favourably. They are, though, much less keen on Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood
Its this kind of poll that makes me despair. Streeting and Mahmood are the ones who would have the best chance of making the party electable and the best chance of tackling some of the countries big problems. But their influence quickly gets capped as they don't pander to the party established viewpoint.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
I just cannot see Rayner as PM, she doesn’t pass the test.
I don’t think Burnham will be a good PM - but I can at least imagine him doing the job.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
The press will be absolutely brutal with her.
Given the declining status of the Press at some point they will try that and loose badly. I don't think we're they yet (esp. with Rayner), but it's coming.
How does that play out? It is not just the papers but there is in built misogyny and snobbery within social media and even broadcast too, alongside a dislike of the lefty side of the left.
Rayner is to be fair not especially left.
I think she’d be a very good item in the Burnham or Streeting governments but not to lead them.
'Not especially left' in which respects?
She gave a really good interview a few years ago where she explained she wasn’t particularly on board with Corbyn’s agenda.
Comments
But what exactly does he want to do? That’s what I am not sure about. I worry he’s like Sir Keir was, where we’re projecting things onto him without knowing anything.
All I’ve heard is he likes devolution.
Who would you choose as Britain’s new patron saint?
Bede was a seriously good egg, which is what counts.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2047209134085271553
St George’s flag stands for unity over hatred and decency over division.
Those are the values I will always fight for.
Some try to hijack our flag to spread hate, I reject their plastic patriotism.
Really not sure what she is talking about.
Same thing happened with the Tories and Rory the ex Tory. The only candidates willing to take on party orthodoxy get a bit of respect from their opponents but have no way of progressing within the UK political framework, perhaps beyond standing as Mayor of one of the big cities.
My council vote is not currently in doubt, the possible parliamentary vote for one of those sensible types if it looks the best way of defeating Reform is in doubt. I was already on the page of giving some benefit of some doubt to Labour, and the more Polanski fishes in the Corbyn pool, though I don't think he is anywhere near to Tunis graveyard level yet, and looks likely to lead a substantial parliamentary party, the more benefit of more doubt Labour are likely to get with me.
Also. Manchester is the fastest growing economy in the country. It's utterly, bewilderingly transformed from 30 years ago. OK. It didn't start with him, and he isn't solely responsible.
But he hasn't screwed it up. Quite the opposite.
This St Botolph is also a longstanding "inclusive church". They provided an office for the Lesbian and Gay Christian Movement as far back as the late 1970s, until the Archdeacon of London took legal action in 1989.
The most way-out thing I ran into looking up St Botolph for the comment was a 2023 proposal for an "air rights" building which would cantilever half way over the listed Turkish Bath.
https://spitalfieldslife.com/2023/07/30/at-the-bishopsgate-bathhouse/
In the process of disclosing to MPs information relevant to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, one document is weirdly absent, as Cat Little, chief operating officer of the civil service told MPs in answer to a question from John Whittingdale. It is a minute and note of the meeting in which the prime minister gave instructions that Peter Mandelson should be appointed to Washington. Ms Little said her team was still looking for it
Congressional seats operate on FPTP, so however "fair" electoral maps are (and there are also heated arguments about how to define fair, even among those who are genuinely in favour of fairness), they will always result in disproportionate outcomes in Red and Blue states.
🚨NEW @Ipsos_in_the_UK polling for Wales Senedd election. Plaid lead Reform by 5 🚨
Plaid 30%
Reform UK 25%
Welsh Labour 15%
Welsh Conservatives 12%
Wales Green Party 10%
Welsh Lib Dems 6%
Other 2%
Fieldwork by Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. N=747. 504 voters. April 2-8.
They replied "we have arranged a "soon type appointment"".
It's in three weeks.
Glad it was soon.
With Labour a wreckage, and if Tories competitive or ahead of Reform, voting Tory starts to look possible. Though they need a new leader. Labour's new leader before the GE would be another plate shifting.
The enthusiasm and relentlessness with which the political-media-establishment discuss scandals like Boris' birthday cake, Mandelson's vetting and taking the knee etc... while defence cuts, family breakdown and our workforce's poor technical skillas have never got anything like the same intensity of attention and as sure as night follows day we end up with no real military, exploding welfare bills and a low productivity economy.
Now, that is scandalous.
https://x.com/montie/status/2047019533861364117
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62l429w2pko
I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.
On April 21st, the left screen moved first.
I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.
At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.
On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.
At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.
Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.
I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.
My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.
The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:
Reviewed.
That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one...
Let me show you my flags.
March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.
March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.
April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.
April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.
April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.
That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.
The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.
Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012...
https://x.com/gothburz/status/2047148829917528134
Unless we can go for St Ivel
To the question "Which Party leads your Council?"
Only 46% knew. 20% wrong 34% don't know.
There are patron saints, then there are M&S patron saints.
* Voted for the Iraq War.
* Backed the 2004 introduction of higher tuition fees.
* Senior health minister in the period leading into the Mid Staffs scandal (later apologised, but it still sits on the CV).
Leadership bids
* 2010: finished 4th, eliminated early.
* 2015: started as a frontrunner, ended up squeezed out by Corbyn. Campaign dogged by charges of positioning and inconsistency (not least on welfare abstentions).
Political style
* Long-time Labour insider who often presents as an outsider.
* Tendency to track where the party mood is going rather than set it.
Mayoral record
* Effective regional advocate, especially on transport and Covid-era funding rows.
* But the Clean Air Zone reversal stands out: shifted from a charging scheme to a non-charging model under pressure. Pragmatism or retreat, depending on taste.
Burnham’s reputation has improved markedly since leaving Westminster. But the parliamentary record is that of a conventional New Labour minister with some difficult baggage and two failed leadership runs. The “next PM” framing relies heavily on his mayoral reinvention holding up under national scrutiny.
Personally, I’ve never liked him, but that may just be my own prejudices and a lingering dislike of the whole New Labour schtick showing through.
Although Rayner's overall favourability amongst all voters (-31%) is below that of Mahmood (-22) and Streeting (-20), that is entirely because she is like Marmite. Her negative ratings are off the scale with 2024 Conservative and 2024 Reform voters, and it is only that dragging down her net favourability. Yet there is not a cat in hell's chance of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters supporting Labour under Mahmood or Streeting either. Leave them out of the equation and the picture changes.
What matters to Labour is that a new leader is given the time of day by those who might actually consider voting Labour. That is, it wins back 2024 Labour voters who have since deserted the party and also makes some appeal to 2024 Greens and 2024 Lib Dems. The polling shows that Rayner is by a long way the more (net) favourably regarded by 2024 Labour and 2024 Greens than Streeting and Mahmood. (Streeting is the more favourably regarded by 2024 Lib Dems.)
Rayner is also a close ally of Burnham, and that could reflect better on her than is currently reflected in the polls. With a contest imminent Burnham is going to have to rein back his ambition. My advice to Rayner would be to offer Burnham anything he asks for to get his endorsement, and when she becomes PM to make him a Lord and to bring him into the government as Deputy PM with specific responsibility for the Regions, Devolved Nations and Local Government. And all the while Burnham could stay on as GM Metro Mayor until his term is up, because he would not be an elected MP.
He became Health Minister in June 2009 and launched the inquiry the following month.
The height of the failings were in 2005-2006.
A junior minister can't be held to the same level of accountability.
When in charge he put in motion uncovering what went on.
https://x.com/deptofwar/status/2047272909920444776
If nothing else comes from this conflict, getting these often dangerous and unseaworthy vessels out of the world’s oceans is definitely a good thing, not to mention that they almost exclusively trade with sanctioned nations such as Iran, Russia, North Korea…
Pretty confident that without tackling immigration and at least some attempt at balancing the books Labour would fail regardless of whether Labour 24 voters today prefer candidates who would rather avoid those tasks.
We agree he’s not Keir Starmer. Good.
But you know more than most, what would he actually DO?
I would defy anyone to have had a better view from the reception of a medical facility, anywhere in the world.
https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2047272152693432627
Green vote won’t hold.
He went to the memorial service at Anfield as sports minister, was booed and jeered by the crowd, but unlike many sports ministers before him decided to actually do something about it.
No one has great answers. Not least because the electorate won't stand for them.
Not being the very epitome of the London elite with an uncanny knack for making the worst decision at every opportunity and generally being unlikeable would be a start.
Anything more call a magician.
Rayner just strikes me as a fundamentally unserious candidate. On the one hand I can see her being temporarily very popular but on the other hand I can see her polling under 10%.
I agree with everything you’ve said. But without any actual ideas we’re going to be back in an identical position in a year. Not getting into scandals is of course a requirement but that doesn’t mean you’ll win. Ed M was pretty clear of scandal but was rubbish.
He’d be best to carry on much of what this government has done under the hood but quietly ditch other things.
Devolution could be an interesting counter to Reform but would need to counter immigration. From what I’ve read of him, he’s not been very strong on tackling it.
The main issue that arises is one of mandate. If a party's leader has been selected by an open primary - potentially involving more direct votes in their favour than any other British election - and the party they lead gains a Commons majority, then it becomes incredibly hard for MPs to remove that leader when they have lost confidence in them, because by doing so they would be going against all those primary voters.
Thus you have something akin to an executive President in a parliamentary system, aka a great big mess.
No 10 has come out fighting after calls for Keir Starmer to face a privileges committee probe.
The PM's spokesperson tells reporters "I don't accept" he misled parliament by denying pressure had been put on Olly Robbins to approve Mandelson's appointment through the vetting process.
"There is a distinction between the government asking for updates about an appointment process and any suggestion that there was pressure on the vetting outcome, and that was the question that Prime Minister was responding to yesterday…
"We don't accept that asking for updates on the progress of an appointment amounts to pressure in relation to the vetting process or outcome."
Unless you class being in London as an MP and Minister to do your job as "London elite?"
In which case we'd be pretty short of any politician at all to fulfill that criterion.
I think she’d be a very good item in the Burnham or Streeting governments but not to lead them.
In particular it is fair to ask and expect the Burnhams and the Farages etc about the essential bits of the state they are less interested in. I want to know from Farage about his plans for the successful and respectful assimilation of minorities and the Islamic population. I want to know from Burnham about whether he believes the solution to the government debt crisis is to increase the debt by £130 billion a year or whether he has a better plan and if so what it is. Etc.
When a new PM is chosen mid-term (which has happened a lot recently), the general public have no input at all, and MPs mostly only get to generate the shortlist. Beyond that, it comes down to one of these small groups of frankly weird people.
OK, democracy is more effective at rejecting afterwards than electing beforehand, but it's a heck of a flaw.
Pressure v asking for updates this is quite subjective .
It seems now that Robbins has confirmed Starmer didn’t know and wasn’t lying about knowing Mandelson had issues with the vetting , the media have now moved onto this ridiculous attempt re the Priviliges Committee .
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2047281356183416923
Starmer appointed Mandelson. Risk but backfired. He should resign for that.