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Could Sir Keir Starmer fall on his sword? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Getting Burnham into parliament is the only difficult bit. Once he’s in, he’s set.

    What happened to the virtually unanimous view of the Labour party after Starmer was elected that the next leader had to be a woman? Completely forgotten?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Foxy said:

    Is the notion that SKS would perhaps rather bring the whole edifice down and declare a GE rather than face the indiginity of being deposed an underpriced scenario? That's what Sunak did.

    Wishful thinking. Although Farage has friends who could help us out in Donald Trump and Putin's post apocalyptic World.
    It seems even Mr Toad is beginning to worry about Twitter being dominated by nazis:

    https://bsky.app/profile/dailyherald.bsky.social/post/3mjymykwb3c2e
    Isn't Musk looking to support Lowe because he considers Farage is little more than a woke lefty?
  • Getting Burnham into parliament is the only difficult bit. Once he’s in, he’s set.

    What happened to the virtually unanimous view of the Labour party after Starmer was elected that the next leader had to be a woman? Completely forgotten?
    They want to win again, or at least have a chance. And Rayner has done a deal with Burnham. So
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    Pulpstar said:

    I didn't vote for him, but when Starmer got in he definitely had a "decent bloke" air about him. A touch boring, but plodding and (seemingly) with a methodical plan of dull incremental improvement (Hah !).

    Now after being in the post just under 2 years he seems petty, spiteful (See this and blocking Burnham) and desperate to stay in the job not because he's particularly good at it, or for the country heck even for the Labour party but because he is there and enjoys the power the office of PM beholds.

    Twitter vibe is that Starmer is sticking because when he goes he'll be fair game with the red tops over various 'stories'. Obviously vibes are vibes, but hard to see what enjoyment he is getting out of it currently. Even the power of the office seems somewhat impotent.
    Twitter vibe isn't exactly a reliable source...
    Obviously, but there don't seem to be any 'reliable' reasons for Starmer's limpet-like attachment to No.10.

    The good of the party - nope
    Personal ambition - nope
    Enjoys the job - nope
    Is good at the job - nope
    Stabilty in this time of crisis - favoured by Labour apparatchiks despite all the feckin Starmer-induced instability, but still nope.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,319
    It all looks rather gutless .

    You weren’t bothered in doing the hard work in trying to become an MP in 2024 and you wouldn’t have bothered , the only reason you’re interested now is because you expect to be appointed Leader .

    Burnham tried twice to become leader and failed miserably.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    Why quite so dismissive of the BBC's local reporting ?
    It's the sort of thing you would once have found in the local paper, which doesn't exist anymore.

    They have genuinely interesting local news along with the mundane.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/lnp/ldrs
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited April 22

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
  • Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    Feels like London at least, is fairly anti-Reform.

    I'm not convinced that Green vote is very strong either, seems like an anti-Labour/stop Reform vote than a "Greens must win" vote. I suspect a lot of these people once voted for Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    Taz said:

    Matt Le Tissier arguing with Grok about Chemtrails wasn’t what I was expecting on Twitter.

    https://x.com/mattletiss7/status/2046726814328897847?s=61

    That's very much the sort of thing I expect, and also what the block function is designed for.
    It can clear a great deal of stupidity from your feed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    edited April 22

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    Beyond the outer suburbs Reform won't win in London and they don't need to either. London is likely to be the best result for the Tories in May as it is the only UK region the Tories will likely still beat Reform so they will then be the main gainers from Labour. Hence it has the Tories picking up Barnet and holding all their other London councils except Bromley
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    If these figures are anywhere near correct, the short to medium term strategic cost of the Iran adventure is considerable.

    Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN:
    50% THAAD interceptors
    50% Patriot interceptors
    45% Precision Strike Missiles
    30% Tomahawk missiles
    20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles
    20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)

    https://x.com/johnmdonnelly/status/2046677772060197189
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Pulpstar said:

    I didn't vote for him, but when Starmer got in he definitely had a "decent bloke" air about him. A touch boring, but plodding and (seemingly) with a methodical plan of dull incremental improvement (Hah !).

    Now after being in the post just under 2 years he seems petty, spiteful (See this and blocking Burnham) and desperate to stay in the job not because he's particularly good at it, or for the country heck even for the Labour party but because he is there and enjoys the power the office of PM beholds.

    Twitter vibe is that Starmer is sticking because when he goes he'll be fair game with the red tops over various 'stories'. Obviously vibes are vibes, but hard to see what enjoyment he is getting out of it currently. Even the power of the office seems somewhat impotent.
    Twitter vibe isn't exactly a reliable source...
    Obviously, but there don't seem to be any 'reliable' reasons for Starmer's limpet-like attachment to No.10.

    The good of the party - nope
    Personal ambition - nope
    Enjoys the job - nope
    Is good at the job - nope
    Stabilty in this time of crisis - favoured by Labour apparatchiks despite all the feckin Starmer-induced instability, but still nope.

    He was at continuity Sunak levels of incompetence but the Robbins sacking has dropped him into Johnson levels of self-preserving incompetence.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    Beyond the outer suburbs Reform won't win in London and they don't need to either
    I am sure they don't need to - but it puts to bed this idea they're a coalition winning everywhere which at one point Johnson was achieving (albeit helped by Jezza).

    I still think your big Tory boys are underpriced.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    https://x.com/i/status/2046884577268875769

    Bit more detail from YG on who is ahead where. Some good 3 way fights
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.
    He wouldn't be my choice but the choices are getting smaller. Thornberry blew it for me yesterday when she put up a half baked reason for Starmer firing Olly. Even she looked embarrassed. Lammy's out as is Cooper (Gaza related) McFadden was pathetic this morning........It's beginning to look easier to walk through the eye of a needle.....
  • nico67 said:

    It all looks rather gutless .

    You weren’t bothered in doing the hard work in trying to become an MP in 2024 and you wouldn’t have bothered , the only reason you’re interested now is because you expect to be appointed Leader .

    Burnham tried twice to become leader and failed miserably.

    I don't think that first line is reasonable at all.

    Becoming a Labour MP in 2024 was not exactly hard work, and being Mayor of Greater Manchester is a bigger job than being a backbench MP.

    Yes he tried twice to become leader, but the last of those times was well over a decade ago.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,314

    Re locals. Driving around the last two days, I've seen only two posters (and one of those might have been an HQ). Nor have I had any leaflets (although Labour and the Indys each sent one just before the campaign started). It all seems very quiet this year.

    Oh, the neighbours had their postal vote gubbins delivered yesterday.

    Maybe campaigning has moved almost entirely online.

    It depends if you live in a target or marginal ward. We (LDs) are currently bombarding a subset of Birmingham wards with leaflets, and my own ward is being deluged by the Greens. Reform and the Tories are also pretty active.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    I honestly believed that whales had mammalian teats so this has come as something of a shock to me.
    Should be safe for work, but it does look a bit weird.

    CISSE Singar 🇸🇳
    @csingar
    Translated from French
    The blue whale produces milk so rich and thick that it resembles double cream with 50% fat content … perfectly suited so that its calf can feed underwater without the milk dispersing.
    How could one not believe in the Creator behind these marvels 🥹

    https://x.com/csingar/status/2046519685525459140?s=20

    *obviously the 'how could one not believe in the Creator' stuff is rubbish.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    Feels like London at least, is fairly anti-Reform.

    I'm not convinced that Green vote is very strong either, seems like an anti-Labour/stop Reform vote than a "Greens must win" vote. I suspect a lot of these people once voted for Johnson.
    We got a leaflet from Lowe's outfit yesterday. Felt like someone had done a shit through our letterbox.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    HYUFD said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    Beyond the outer suburbs Reform won't win in London and they don't need to either
    I am sure they don't need to - but it puts to bed this idea they're a coalition winning everywhere which at one point Johnson was achieving (albeit helped by Jezza).

    I still think your big Tory boys are underpriced.
    I went to Hinckley yesterday. Still the hundreds of thousands of pounds of flags on every Worcestershire roundabout/ island but Hinckley? Man alive, it was reminiscent of the Golden Jubilee.

    Farage is going to do very well in a fortnight, better than he was doing two weeks ago. This current Starmer psycho drama isn't helping. I suspect the Tories are going to have to throw their lot in with Reform for 2029.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    In London? Though I suspect the final vote share for Reform might be higher than what the polls record by 3-4 points and Greens a bit lower.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579

    https://x.com/i/status/2046884577268875769

    Bit more detail from YG on who is ahead where. Some good 3 way fights

    Really hoping the Tories win back Barnet, my parents have their fingers crossed for a Tory win in Enfield too but it looks like it will from Lab maj to Lab/Green which will inevitably make everything worse for another 4 years before the Tories make a comeback.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,955

    Roger said:

    Sacking Olly Robbins stands in the face of all things to do with fair play Labour are supposed to stand for. It reeks of unfairness and every Minister sent out to defend the decision is another good man pushed under a bus to protect the PM, The latest is Pat Mcfadden. It's horrible to watch.

    We expect it of the Tories but Labour should be better than this.

    The Robbins firing was the point of no return for Starmer as far as I am concerned. Scratching around for a scapegoat, particularly when the wrong one is selected, is the mark of a scoundrel. This is Johnsonian level buck passing.
    Robbins is hardly being hard done by. Probably half a million quid for not working for a few months, then back to MD level role within Goldmans before returning to run the government for whoever is the 2028 GE winner.
    It is the principle rather than the man that concerns me.
    It is politics, and Robbins a willing participant. If he didn't want to act as the potential scapegoat with the backup of a big payout and city job, he could have, perhaps, you know, actually glanced at the vetting report he overruled.
    You are not seeing the wood from the trees.

    This is Johnsonian smoke and mirrors. Starmer was supposed to be a straight up guy. The Robbins sacking to deflect from a roll of the dice that went wrong is not being a straight up guy.
    I accept that Starmer is not and can't portray himself as a straight up guy, but I never particularly thought him such. Not sure I'd ever think of any candidate for PM as such, because you don't get into those positions without ambition overruling ethics from time to time.
    The Robbins sacking demonstrates a clear incompetence. The Mandelson call was simply a misjudgement, albeit a misjudgement made when lots of facts were available. Having made the bad call I would have taken the high road, but Robbins is quite something else.
    It was a MASSIVELY STUPID misjudgement
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    edited April 22
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer will likely step down before the next general election. I think he will survive May though unless Labour are either beaten by the Tories on seats won and NEV or the Greens beat Labour on seats won in London, both of which would be terminal for him as Labour would not only be behind Reform but not even polling as their main opposition

    I am not sure because you are a Johnson fanboi that you understand the negative magnitude of Starmer's decision to sack Robbins to save his own hide.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,466
    edited April 22

    HYUFD said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    Beyond the outer suburbs Reform won't win in London and they don't need to either
    I am sure they don't need to - but it puts to bed this idea they're a coalition winning everywhere which at one point Johnson was achieving (albeit helped by Jezza).

    I still think your big Tory boys are underpriced.
    I went to Hinckley yesterday. Still the hundreds of thousands of pounds of flags on every Worcestershire roundabout/ island but Hinckley? Man alive, it was reminiscent of the Golden Jubilee.

    Farage is going to do very well in a fortnight, better than he was doing two weeks ago. This current Starmer psycho drama isn't helping. I suspect the Tories are going to have to throw their lot in with Reform for 2029.
    I think it is more likely to be a bit curate's egg- very uneven. I think the Tories will live to fight another day. If they did throw their lot in with Farage- then we would see a real surge for the Lib Dems.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323

    I honestly believed that whales had mammalian teats so this has come as something of a shock to me.
    Should be safe for work, but it does look a bit weird.

    CISSE Singar 🇸🇳
    @csingar
    Translated from French
    The blue whale produces milk so rich and thick that it resembles double cream with 50% fat content … perfectly suited so that its calf can feed underwater without the milk dispersing.
    How could one not believe in the Creator behind these marvels 🥹

    https://x.com/csingar/status/2046519685525459140?s=20

    *obviously the 'how could one not believe in the Creator' stuff is rubbish.

    Trouble is, anti-religious scientists could be just as bad. Blue whales produce thick milk: how could one not believe in the creator evolution? Giraffes have long necks to reach the leaves: how could one not believe in divine creation evolution?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,238
    Nigelb said:

    If these figures are anywhere near correct, the short to medium term strategic cost of the Iran adventure is considerable.

    Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN:
    50% THAAD interceptors
    50% Patriot interceptors
    45% Precision Strike Missiles
    30% Tomahawk missiles
    20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles
    20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)

    https://x.com/johnmdonnelly/status/2046677772060197189

    All because Trump liked the videos of things being blown up. And now he's asking for 42% more cash.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124

    Starmer being panned by James O'Brexit. Specifically because of the Robbins sacking.

    It's over.

    He's right though. He's done many irritating things since becoming leader but this is visceral. It's something decent people don't do.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    nico67 said:

    It all looks rather gutless .

    You weren’t bothered in doing the hard work in trying to become an MP in 2024 and you wouldn’t have bothered , the only reason you’re interested now is because you expect to be appointed Leader .

    Burnham tried twice to become leader and failed miserably.

    I don't think that first line is reasonable at all.

    Becoming a Labour MP in 2024 was not exactly hard work, and being Mayor of Greater Manchester is a bigger job than being a backbench MP.

    Yes he tried twice to become leader, but the last of those times was well over a decade ago.
    He also did very poorly - when the pool of potential candidates for Leader was much smaller. Not promising, is it?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,238

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    Feels like London at least, is fairly anti-Reform.

    I'm not convinced that Green vote is very strong either, seems like an anti-Labour/stop Reform vote than a "Greens must win" vote. I suspect a lot of these people once voted for Johnson.
    We got a leaflet from Lowe's outfit yesterday. Felt like someone had done a shit through our letterbox.
    There's a lot of that down my way wrt Reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    edited April 22
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Roger said:

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.
    He wouldn't be my choice but the choices are getting smaller. Thornberry blew it for me yesterday when she put up a half baked reason for Starmer firing Olly. Even she looked embarrassed. Lammy's out as is Cooper (Gaza related) McFadden was pathetic this morning........It's beginning to look easier to walk through the eye of a needle.....
    Healey barely knows how to spell his own name, Milliband had a go and failed, Streeting loses his seat at the next GE.

    I don't like her, but if she can chivvy along HMRC Rayner is smarter than most. I like Jones and Carns, although neither profile is big enough yet.

    Unless he has improved in his years away from Westminster I don't believe Burnham is as impressive as he thinks he is.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,238
    edited April 22
    CFD for Oil up almost 9% since 17th. Ouch.




  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/i/status/2046884577268875769

    Bit more detail from YG on who is ahead where. Some good 3 way fights

    Really hoping the Tories win back Barnet, my parents have their fingers crossed for a Tory win in Enfield too but it looks like it will from Lab maj to Lab/Green which will inevitably make everything worse for another 4 years before the Tories make a comeback.
    Well it has them doing much better in Barnet than the Westminster and Wandsworth targets!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,208

    Roger said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Before Burnham's abortive coup a few months ago a long time friend gave me chapter and verse. Because I thought it indiscreet and I wasn't completely certain about its accuracy I didn't repeat it on here.

    I met him a few weeks later and congratulated him on being correct. I asked him where he got his information and he proudly told me. It was 100% watertight. His source was an unimpeachable client and he was proud to tell me who and how he knew him. He didn't even tell me to keep it to myself. Well he now tells me history is about to repeat itself.

    Another abortive coup ?
    A Burnham coup to the advantage of Burnham (ie becoming PM) requires a few imponderables, and without thinking them through remains either useless or only to the benefit of someone else.

    Vacant seat
    Being nominated
    Winning it
    Getting enough MPs to back you
    Winning the subsequent battle in which Burnham's ego is faced by other egos.

    Also: ensuring the PM doesn't time a resignation to forestall you.

    Each stage reduces the chance and increases the odds. The current 8/1 is too short. Can Roger outline the plan? I can't see it happening successfully.

    As I understand it a winnable seat has been offered for after the locals.
    Is there any winnable seat is the question - there should be but is there ?
    Will be a test of how popular Burnham is. If a Labour seat becomes vacant and he doesn't win it then it would indicate to me that he is not the saviour his fans are claiming. If he wins and wins comfortably then he deserves a go at standing for the leadership.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,536

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    Feels like London at least, is fairly anti-Reform.

    I'm not convinced that Green vote is very strong either, seems like an anti-Labour/stop Reform vote than a "Greens must win" vote. I suspect a lot of these people once voted for Johnson.
    We got a leaflet from Lowe's outfit yesterday. Felt like someone had done a shit through our letterbox.
    Whereabouts do you live? Wasn't Restore actually had any candidates for these elections
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the most likely way for Starmer to go is voluntarily. In part because it avoids an ignominious defenestration. Difficult that maybe, but also humiliating. There is a modest amount of dignity in going voluntarily, and also slightly more influence on the successor. I suspect that he favours Streeting out of the possibles.

    I don't think Starmer was planning to go just yet, but increasingly he looks like a lame duck. After the meltdown in May would be the best, and a new PM by conference.

    Why would it help to have a new PM just as we are about to face the reality of higher inflation from Iran (beyond just fuel)? They will get Trussed.

    Starmer leaving in 2027 is better for him and his replacement.
    The problem is in keeping control of events. If he is planning to go next year, the obvious question is "why not sooner?" Then we get a defenestration.
    At the moment, Team Rayner fear Streeting or Burnham getting the job. Similar permutations apply to Teams Burnham and Streeting. It's an unstable equilibrium, but they can persist for quite a while.

    I reckon the key that the lock needs is a John Major figure, who suddenly appears out of almost nowhere and everyone agrees is acceptable.

    (It might be harder now. I'm pretty sure that the balance of personal and ideological ambition has tipped too far in the personal direction.)
    Carns?

    A bit early and let's not forget Major didn't exactly steady the ship.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Battlebus said:

    CFD for Oil up almost 9% since 17th. Ouch.




    Reeves!!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    Favourite for new Lab leader has dropped.

    https://x.com/thematrixb0t/status/2046514328619155535?s=20
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    Battlebus said:

    Nigelb said:

    If these figures are anywhere near correct, the short to medium term strategic cost of the Iran adventure is considerable.

    Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN:
    50% THAAD interceptors
    50% Patriot interceptors
    45% Precision Strike Missiles
    30% Tomahawk missiles
    20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles
    20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)

    https://x.com/johnmdonnelly/status/2046677772060197189

    All because Trump liked the videos of things being blown up. And now he's asking for 42% more cash.
    I'm sure it is all covered by the £25tn savings from DOGE? No?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    You do have to wonder what's the point of a Labour Party that cannot hold the Valleys.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the most likely way for Starmer to go is voluntarily. In part because it avoids an ignominious defenestration. Difficult that maybe, but also humiliating. There is a modest amount of dignity in going voluntarily, and also slightly more influence on the successor. I suspect that he favours Streeting out of the possibles.

    I don't think Starmer was planning to go just yet, but increasingly he looks like a lame duck. After the meltdown in May would be the best, and a new PM by conference.

    Why would it help to have a new PM just as we are about to face the reality of higher inflation from Iran (beyond just fuel)? They will get Trussed.

    Starmer leaving in 2027 is better for him and his replacement.
    The problem is in keeping control of events. If he is planning to go next year, the obvious question is "why not sooner?" Then we get a defenestration.
    At the moment, Team Rayner fear Streeting or Burnham getting the job. Similar permutations apply to Teams Burnham and Streeting. It's an unstable equilibrium, but they can persist for quite a while.

    I reckon the key that the lock needs is a John Major figure, who suddenly appears out of almost nowhere and everyone agrees is acceptable.

    (It might be harder now. I'm pretty sure that the balance of personal and ideological ambition has tipped too far in the personal direction.)
    Carns?

    A bit early and let's not forget Major didn't exactly steady the ship.
    Commentators searching for this elusive figure always end up on the ex army types, Ben Wallace was fav for next PM a few times despite not wanting the job at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the most likely way for Starmer to go is voluntarily. In part because it avoids an ignominious defenestration. Difficult that maybe, but also humiliating. There is a modest amount of dignity in going voluntarily, and also slightly more influence on the successor. I suspect that he favours Streeting out of the possibles.

    I don't think Starmer was planning to go just yet, but increasingly he looks like a lame duck. After the meltdown in May would be the best, and a new PM by conference.

    Why would it help to have a new PM just as we are about to face the reality of higher inflation from Iran (beyond just fuel)? They will get Trussed.

    Starmer leaving in 2027 is better for him and his replacement.
    The problem is in keeping control of events. If he is planning to go next year, the obvious question is "why not sooner?" Then we get a defenestration.
    At the moment, Team Rayner fear Streeting or Burnham getting the job. Similar permutations apply to Teams Burnham and Streeting. It's an unstable equilibrium, but they can persist for quite a while.

    I reckon the key that the lock needs is a John Major figure, who suddenly appears out of almost nowhere and everyone agrees is acceptable.

    (It might be harder now. I'm pretty sure that the balance of personal and ideological ambition has tipped too far in the personal direction.)
    Carns?

    A bit early and let's not forget Major didn't exactly steady the ship.
    Major won the 1992 election Maggie may have lost and dumped the poll tax
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Bin usage and storage must be completely different in rural villages and inner city blocks of flats or terraces. Why shouldn't councils be allowed to reflect that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168
    I am old and out of date, and my last job application (other than internal promotion) was over 20 years ago. This story interested me and some of you can throw light on it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy915dylnqpo

    See this bit "Since late February, Karyna has been applying daily, often to around 20 roles a day, while balancing studies, work and running a small business upcycling vintage blazers."

    When I was applying for jobs I would take time to make sure my application was right for the post - what were they looking for, what evidence am I providing that I can do the role etc.

    Now I suppose things are different and these may be simple online applications, but maybe she's doing something wrong too?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the most likely way for Starmer to go is voluntarily. In part because it avoids an ignominious defenestration. Difficult that maybe, but also humiliating. There is a modest amount of dignity in going voluntarily, and also slightly more influence on the successor. I suspect that he favours Streeting out of the possibles.

    I don't think Starmer was planning to go just yet, but increasingly he looks like a lame duck. After the meltdown in May would be the best, and a new PM by conference.

    Why would it help to have a new PM just as we are about to face the reality of higher inflation from Iran (beyond just fuel)? They will get Trussed.

    Starmer leaving in 2027 is better for him and his replacement.
    The problem is in keeping control of events. If he is planning to go next year, the obvious question is "why not sooner?" Then we get a defenestration.
    At the moment, Team Rayner fear Streeting or Burnham getting the job. Similar permutations apply to Teams Burnham and Streeting. It's an unstable equilibrium, but they can persist for quite a while.

    I reckon the key that the lock needs is a John Major figure, who suddenly appears out of almost nowhere and everyone agrees is acceptable.

    (It might be harder now. I'm pretty sure that the balance of personal and ideological ambition has tipped too far in the personal direction.)
    Carns?

    A bit early and let's not forget Major didn't exactly steady the ship.
    Major won the 1992 election Maggie may have lost and dumped the poll tax
    And then less than a year in after 1992, 1997 was settled.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Bin usage and storage must be completely different in rural villages and inner city blocks of flats or terraces. Why shouldn't councils be allowed to reflect that?
    A fair point. But why should Frome (a small market town in Somerset) have totally different bins to Warminster (a small market town in Wiltshire), less than 5 miles away?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168
    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    You do have to wonder what's the point of a Labour Party that cannot hold the Valleys.
    FTFY
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Mixed recycling for glass, metals and card/paper.
    Burn the rest and produce electricity
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    boulay said:

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    Here’s some photos of Emily Hart.

    FYI don’t open this link when your other half is about.

    https://nypost.com/2026/04/21/us-news/top-maga-influencer-emily-hart-revealed-to-be-ai-created-by-a-guy-in-india/
    Do you think the creator made her look purposefully so young to appeal to a demographic of Magas? Quite grim.
    Warning notice

    Under UK law images which are generated but represent such illegal activity, are a criminal offence to possess.

    If you open one, then it’s probably cached on your computer/device.

    People have lost jobs and gone to prison for such.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    Feels like London at least, is fairly anti-Reform.

    I'm not convinced that Green vote is very strong either, seems like an anti-Labour/stop Reform vote than a "Greens must win" vote. I suspect a lot of these people once voted for Johnson.
    We got a leaflet from Lowe's outfit yesterday. Felt like someone had done a shit through our letterbox.
    Whereabouts do you live? Wasn't Restore actually had any candidates for these elections
    Lewisham. There was no mention of any candidates or even Lewisham though, it seemed to be a generic leaflet and focused mainly on deportation rather than anything of relevance to the local elections.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Roger said:

    Starmer being panned by James O'Brexit. Specifically because of the Robbins sacking.

    It's over.

    He's right though. He's done many irritating things since becoming leader but this is visceral. It's something decent people don't do.
    Yes. It is a step too far for me too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Bin usage and storage must be completely different in rural villages and inner city blocks of flats or terraces. Why shouldn't councils be allowed to reflect that?
    A fair point. But why should Frome (a small market town in Somerset) have totally different bins to Warminster (a small market town in Wiltshire), less than 5 miles away?
    Its another long standing quandary, voters want locally devolved powers but national consistency, woe betide a postcode lottery.

    Intriguingly the government have been addressing this very issue with an attempt at some standardisation:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/simpler-household-recycling-rules-come-into-force-across-england
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Sweeney74 said:

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Mixed recycling for glass, metals and card/paper.
    Burn the rest and produce electricity
    Waste to energy used to be called incineration. It is a con.

    I deal with a company that dries and shreds nappies and adds the resultant crumb to create road surfaces. It is a very clever solution.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,097

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858

    I am old and out of date, and my last job application (other than internal promotion) was over 20 years ago. This story interested me and some of you can throw light on it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy915dylnqpo

    See this bit "Since late February, Karyna has been applying daily, often to around 20 roles a day, while balancing studies, work and running a small business upcycling vintage blazers."

    When I was applying for jobs I would take time to make sure my application was right for the post - what were they looking for, what evidence am I providing that I can do the role etc.

    Now I suppose things are different and these may be simple online applications, but maybe she's doing something wrong too?

    Trouble is that once some people go for AI Slop Applications, trying to win through sheer numbers, everyone has to do it. You can't cut through the noise with a carefully crafted song.

    It's one of those paradoxical situations where making the process more efficient for all the participants on an individual level just guns up.tbe system on a collective level.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Keep hoping and pull up those Little Englander socks
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    I suspect being a former Corbynista you would fit in quite well. It seems to be a similar politics. I am not sure how Zack keeps the disaffected Tories of North Herefordshire though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    I honestly believed that whales had mammalian teats so this has come as something of a shock to me.
    Should be safe for work, but it does look a bit weird.

    CISSE Singar 🇸🇳
    @csingar
    Translated from French
    The blue whale produces milk so rich and thick that it resembles double cream with 50% fat content … perfectly suited so that its calf can feed underwater without the milk dispersing.
    How could one not believe in the Creator behind these marvels 🥹

    https://x.com/csingar/status/2046519685525459140?s=20

    *obviously the 'how could one not believe in the Creator' stuff is rubbish.

    Ok, hands up, it looks weird because it's AI. I think I was closer with my teat belief.

    Readers added context
    The accompanying video inaccurately shows visible streams and clouds of milk; real blue whale nursing involves the mother squirting thick milk directly into the calf's mouth without dispersal in the water. nationalgeographic.com/animals/articl… discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/m…
    Do you find this helpful?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323

    I am old and out of date, and my last job application (other than internal promotion) was over 20 years ago. This story interested me and some of you can throw light on it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy915dylnqpo

    See this bit "Since late February, Karyna has been applying daily, often to around 20 roles a day, while balancing studies, work and running a small business upcycling vintage blazers."

    When I was applying for jobs I would take time to make sure my application was right for the post - what were they looking for, what evidence am I providing that I can do the role etc.

    Now I suppose things are different and these may be simple online applications, but maybe she's doing something wrong too?

    Maybe but if she is claiming benefits, there will be a quota of applications she has to make.

    At the end of the day, the best way to get a job is to know someone who can give you a job, and the second best way is probably to sign up with a recruitment agency.

    Is Karyna doing something wrong? Probably but at an aggregate level it does not really matter. We have more jobseekers than jobs. If Karyna gets lucky on her next application then Sharon, Colette and the other 697 applicants will have been rejected.

    Karyna is probably now in the dead zone. Over-qualified for basic jobs; no experience for others; and with a yawning gap on her cv that says she is too risky – she was in prison, in a psychiatric hospital, or even if she looks ideal for this post, maybe every other firm for the last six months spotted the red flags we missed so why take the chance?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168
    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    Sweeney74 said:

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Mixed recycling for glass, metals and card/paper.
    Burn the rest and produce electricity
    Waste to energy used to be called incineration. It is a con.

    I deal with a company that dries and shreds nappies and adds the resultant crumb to create road surfaces. It is a very clever solution.
    The problem isn't what to do with specific recyclable items so much as gathering enough good quality, uncontaminated items to make the recycling venture feasible.
    The current system relies on unpaid labour from households and still produces contaminated loads. Ventures like your example require more of that, not less - it's not practical.
    Residual waste to EfW with district heating like in Scandinavia is a much easier option for households to consider.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?

    Suspect WBA possible points deduction? Unlikely but as far as I know still tbc.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    edited April 22
    Roger said:

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.
    He wouldn't be my choice but the choices are getting smaller. Thornberry blew it for me yesterday when she put up a half baked reason for Starmer firing Olly. Even she looked embarrassed. Lammy's out as is Cooper (Gaza related) McFadden was pathetic this morning........It's beginning to look easier to walk through the eye of a needle.....
    I do not think I have ever seen a government minister so lost for words than McFadden in his interview with Sophy Ridge on Sky this morning

    He was lost for words and frankly I felt sorry for him, and that Starmer could even put a colleague in this position
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 649

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    In case this has not been posted before, here's a Seat Calculator for the Welsh election.....

    https://jaclarner.github.io/senedd_etholiad_sim/

    It's a bit clunky to begin with (votes entered must = 100%) but on the right hand side there's a prediction for each of the regional seats, and the probable order in which they are awarded. Quite fun to play with, if you've got time on your hands.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Taz said:

    More quality reporting from the BBC News service. The envy of the world.

    Woman writes to neighbours about bin collections

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9me80ng3ko

    When I am chosen to replace Keir Starmer, my first action will be to mandate weekly bin collections, one bin per household, to be sorted at the recycling plant. Requiring people to use 57 varieties of bin collected every other Tuesday smacks of inept council planning and perhaps a hint of quasi-religious fervour – people must be made to work for recycling because it is good for their souls.
    I disagree a bit with you. I think having a few separate waste streams is fine. We have general non recyclable waste, recycling (paper/card/plastics), glass and an optional green waste bin. Pretty sensible. Some challenges are having food waste collected every 2-3 weeks - rotting and attracting flies is a problem. But overall not too bad.

    If any council is moving to many more bins that that, they are doing it wrong.

    And lastly - I think every council in the country should do the same bins.
    Mixed recycling for glass, metals and card/paper.
    Burn the rest and produce electricity
    Waste to energy used to be called incineration. It is a con.

    I deal with a company that dries and shreds nappies and adds the resultant crumb to create road surfaces. It is a very clever solution.
    The problem isn't what to do with specific recyclable items so much as gathering enough good quality, uncontaminated items to make the recycling venture feasible.
    The current system relies on unpaid labour from households and still produces contaminated loads. Ventures like your example require more of that, not less - it's not practical.
    Residual waste to EfW with district heating like in Scandinavia is a much easier option for households to consider.
    Our residual here goes to a big CHP plant in New Cross with some local district heating.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124

    Roger said:

    Starmer being panned by James O'Brexit. Specifically because of the Robbins sacking.

    It's over.

    He's right though. He's done many irritating things since becoming leader but this is visceral. It's something decent people don't do.
    Yes. It is a step too far for me too.
    What makes it worse is that Olly Robbins is straight out of Central Casting. The fresh faced good guy who just wanted to the right thing....
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    Looks like the PM is going to prorogue parliament to shield No 10 from the vetting scandal as ministers distance themselves from the sacking of Sir Olly Robbins for the locals...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Roger said:

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.
    He wouldn't be my choice but the choices are getting smaller. Thornberry blew it for me yesterday when she put up a half baked reason for Starmer firing Olly. Even she looked embarrassed. Lammy's out as is Cooper (Gaza related) McFadden was pathetic this morning........It's beginning to look easier to walk through the eye of a needle.....
    I do not think I have ever seen a government minister so lost for words than McFadden in his interview with Sophy Ridge on Sky this morning

    He was lost for words and frankly I felt sorry for him, and that Starmer could even put a colleague in this position
    Healey on Nick Ferrari a couple of weeks ago?

    Boris Johnson discussing Peppa Pig with the CBI?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski’s Green Party will conduct a “full review” of its policies

    Policies including abolish the monarchy, making private landlords illegal, and reducing the motorway speed limit to 55mph are set to be cut

    [
    @POLITICOEurope
    ]

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2046850195229454741
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Starmer being panned by James O'Brexit. Specifically because of the Robbins sacking.

    It's over.

    He's right though. He's done many irritating things since becoming leader but this is visceral. It's something decent people don't do.
    Yes. It is a step too far for me too.
    What makes it worse is that Olly Robbins is straight out of Central Casting. The fresh faced good guy who just wanted to the right thing....
    It isn't so much about Robbins as Starmer.

    The look is awful.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,876

    boulay said:

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    Here’s some photos of Emily Hart.

    FYI don’t open this link when your other half is about.

    https://nypost.com/2026/04/21/us-news/top-maga-influencer-emily-hart-revealed-to-be-ai-created-by-a-guy-in-india/
    Do you think the creator made her look purposefully so young to appeal to a demographic of Magas? Quite grim.
    Warning notice

    Under UK law images which are generated but represent such illegal activity, are a criminal offence to possess.

    If you open one, then it’s probably cached on your computer/device.

    People have lost jobs and gone to prison for such.
    It’s the images from the wired article which was linked by TSE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137

    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?

    Suspect WBA possible points deduction? Unlikely but as far as I know still tbc.
    Yes it's a mathematical possibility still - WBA would need to be deducted at least 4 points, not get anything from their last two matches and Leicester win both their games.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski’s Green Party will conduct a “full review” of its policies

    Policies including abolish the monarchy, making private landlords illegal, and reducing the motorway speed limit to 55mph are set to be cut

    [
    @POLITICOEurope
    ]

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2046850195229454741
    Not a series of U turns. No siree! Merely readjustment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,131
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    Here’s some photos of Emily Hart.

    FYI don’t open this link when your other half is about.

    https://nypost.com/2026/04/21/us-news/top-maga-influencer-emily-hart-revealed-to-be-ai-created-by-a-guy-in-india/
    Do you think the creator made her look purposefully so young to appeal to a demographic of Magas? Quite grim.
    Warning notice

    Under UK law images which are generated but represent such illegal activity, are a criminal offence to possess.

    If you open one, then it’s probably cached on your computer/device.

    People have lost jobs and gone to prison for such.
    It’s the images from the wired article which was linked by TSE.
    No doubt wired will soon be banned in the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    If WBA win their next game they might well withdraw their appeal depending on Oxford's result.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski’s Green Party will conduct a “full review” of its policies

    Policies including abolish the monarchy, making private landlords illegal, and reducing the motorway speed limit to 55mph are set to be cut

    [
    @POLITICOEurope
    ]

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2046850195229454741
    Of those 3, the first is starting to become a less outlandish position, and the third - whilst probably the most electorally unpopular policy since the poll tax - is probably one of the most directly impactful out there for the current fuel crisis.

    But not sure of the politics of this announcement. Doesn’t it just highlight to people who hadn’t noticed that the Greens have lots of bonkers policies?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    Here’s some photos of Emily Hart.

    FYI don’t open this link when your other half is about.

    https://nypost.com/2026/04/21/us-news/top-maga-influencer-emily-hart-revealed-to-be-ai-created-by-a-guy-in-india/
    Do you think the creator made her look purposefully so young to appeal to a demographic of Magas? Quite grim.
    Warning notice

    Under UK law images which are generated but represent such illegal activity, are a criminal offence to possess.

    If you open one, then it’s probably cached on your computer/device.

    People have lost jobs and gone to prison for such.
    It’s the images from the wired article which was linked by TSE.
    No doubt wired will soon be banned in the UK.
    If those images are illegal we're all off to hookey tbh.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    It has them in the lead on votes in 3 councils - Barking, Havering and Bromley.
    LDs in 4 - the 3 they hold plus Merton
    Greens in 4 (Hackney, Lewisham plus another 2)
    Tories in 5 - Hillingdon, Harrow, Kensington, Bexley and Barnet
    1 TCTC (Croydon i think)
    Other 16 Labour
    That's councils in which the party is in the lead, but it's not necessarily a majority. How many of those end up NOC will be interesting!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski’s Green Party will conduct a “full review” of its policies

    Policies including abolish the monarchy, making private landlords illegal, and reducing the motorway speed limit to 55mph are set to be cut

    [
    @POLITICOEurope
    ]

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2046850195229454741
    Not a series of U turns. No siree! Merely readjustment.
    To be fair, the party that agreed all those policies, Before Zack, doesn't really exist any more.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916
    HYUFD said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    Honestly expected Reform to do better than that
    Beyond the outer suburbs Reform won't win in London and they don't need to either. London is likely to be the best result for the Tories in May as it is the only UK region the Tories will likely still beat Reform so they will then be the main gainers from Labour. Hence it has the Tories picking up Barnet and holding all their other London councils except Bromley
    That doesn't look like the Tories "will then be the main gainers from Labour". That's predicting the Greens being the main gainers from Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    edited April 22

    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?

    Suspect WBA possible points deduction? Unlikely but as far as I know still tbc.
    Would require Leicester to win both games - including Milwall, scrapping with Ipswich for automatic promotion. That would take them to 46, so they still can't get better than third from bottom even if they beat Blackburn in their other game.

    So not to be relegated they would need to win both games and for Baggies to lose both their games (Ipswich - likely and Sheffield Wednesday - less likely). So if West Brom score no more points and Leicester get 6, then West Brom would have to be deducted 4 points with a worse goal difference or 5 points for Leicester to stay up. Last year, Forest were deducted 4 points.

    Not mathematically impossible for Leicester to be saved. But it requires a weird set of outcomes - or a very vindictive FA.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    More details on the London YouGov MRP
    YouGov said:

    Key takeaways:

    Labour look set for big losses across the capital, as the Greens in particular eat into their once solid London vote
    Reform UK are also expected to perform well, picking up significant levels of previous Conservative support in the outer boroughs, and driving into Labour heartlands in Barking and Dagenham
    The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are expected to hold most of what they have, while Independents and other parties look set to make gains particularly in London’s East.

    Full article here.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski’s Green Party will conduct a “full review” of its policies

    Policies including abolish the monarchy, making private landlords illegal, and reducing the motorway speed limit to 55mph are set to be cut

    [
    @POLITICOEurope
    ]

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2046850195229454741
    Not a series of U turns. No siree! Merely readjustment.
    To be fair, the party that agreed all those policies, Before Zack, doesn't really exist any more.
    A fair point.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,439

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    There was a fundamental dishonesty involved, which is what makes it a grift. The people he was selling to thought they were buying photos from a real woman, and so they were deceived.

    Now, to a certain extent, if the photos were sold by a real woman there could still be an element of grift, in that the people buying photos would be encouraged to believe that they were doing so as part of a relationship with the seller. A lot of these sorts of para-social relationships between content creators and their customers can be a bit problematic, leading to issues at both ends.
    But what is the intrinsic difference between buying photos of a real woman vs a simulacrum? You are still just getting an image.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,439
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Before Burnham's abortive coup a few months ago a long time friend gave me chapter and verse. Because I thought it indiscreet and I wasn't completely certain about its accuracy I didn't repeat it on here.

    I met him a few weeks later and congratulated him on being correct. I asked him where he got his information and he proudly told me. It was 100% watertight. His source was an unimpeachable client and he was proud to tell me who and how he knew him. He didn't even tell me to keep it to myself. Well he now tells me history is about to repeat itself.

    Another abortive coup ?
    A Burnham coup to the advantage of Burnham (ie becoming PM) requires a few imponderables, and without thinking them through remains either useless or only to the benefit of someone else.

    Vacant seat
    Being nominated
    Winning it
    Getting enough MPs to back you
    Winning the subsequent battle in which Burnham's ego is faced by other egos.

    Also: ensuring the PM doesn't time a resignation to forestall you.

    Each stage reduces the chance and increases the odds. The current 8/1 is too short. Can Roger outline the plan? I can't see it happening successfully.

    It would be quite funny if Burnham resigns as Mayor to run for parliament and the next day Starmer resigns and sets the timeline so it is before Burnham is elected
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,648

    Starmer knows he is taking the Labour cause backwards. He would stand down if he felt there was somebody in his team who could do a better job.

    But he looks around and his inflated self-worth says "Nah. Nobody will do better."

    What is this 'Labour cause' of which you speak, Mark?

    As far as I can see there is no cause as such, just an attempt to run the shop reasonably sensibly. That isn't setting the bar very high, although some way higher than some of the governments of the past ten or so years.

    Unfortunately I can't see that Nobody would indeed do better. If Labour had a Nobody who might, the Party would surely be lining him up right now. They haven't, and they aren't.
    It's why I'm considering joining the Greens, after over 50 years in Labour. Yes, they're a bit wild, with policy-making very much on the hoof and only solidified at their annual conference. But they do seem to have energy and a positive can-do attitude to politics, which the established parties have somehow mislaid...
    That's rather sad, Nick, but I am sure you know what you are doing. Good luck, however you decide.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    This Scammer Used an AI-Generated MAGA Girl to Grift ‘Super Dumb’ Men

    A med student says he’s made thousands of dollars selling photos and videos of a young conservative woman he created using generative tools. He’s not alone.


    Like many medical school students, Sam was broke.

    The 22-year-old aspiring orthopedic surgeon from northern India got some money from his parents, but he says he spent most of it subsidizing his licensing exams, and he’s still saving up to hopefully emigrate to the US after graduation. So he started searching for ways to make additional money online.

    Sam, who requested a pseudonym to avoid jeopardizing his medical career and immigration status, tried a few things, with varying degrees of legitimacy and success. He made YouTube shorts and sold study notes to other med students. It wasn’t until he started scrolling through his Instagram feed that he landed on an idea: Why not make an AI-generated girl using Google Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro and sell bikini photos of her online?

    But when Sam started posting generic photos of a beautiful, scantily clad woman on Instagram, he was dismayed to find that none of the content was hitting. He turned to Gemini for advice. “If you create a generic ‘hot girl,’ you’re competing with a million other models,” it said, according to a transcript Sam provided to WIRED.


    https://www.wired.com/story/ai-generated-maga-girls/

    Haven’t read the article yet (although skimmed it and disappointed that there were no photos of “Emily hart”!)

    But I’m not it’s fair to call that “grift”. He worked to create a product - albeit ephemeral- which people were prepared to pay for. Isn’t that just capitalism?
    There was a fundamental dishonesty involved, which is what makes it a grift. The people he was selling to thought they were buying photos from a real woman, and so they were deceived.

    Now, to a certain extent, if the photos were sold by a real woman there could still be an element of grift, in that the people buying photos would be encouraged to believe that they were doing so as part of a relationship with the seller. A lot of these sorts of para-social relationships between content creators and their customers can be a bit problematic, leading to issues at both ends.
    But what is the intrinsic difference between buying photos of a real woman vs a simulacrum? You are still just getting an image.
    Its an interesting thought. Would an AI image a child porn be legal, bit not a photo of real child porn (clearly not).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916

    I honestly believed that whales had mammalian teats so this has come as something of a shock to me.
    Should be safe for work, but it does look a bit weird.

    CISSE Singar 🇸🇳
    @csingar
    Translated from French
    The blue whale produces milk so rich and thick that it resembles double cream with 50% fat content … perfectly suited so that its calf can feed underwater without the milk dispersing.
    How could one not believe in the Creator behind these marvels 🥹

    https://x.com/csingar/status/2046519685525459140?s=20

    *obviously the 'how could one not believe in the Creator' stuff is rubbish.

    I think that's AI slop! Compare real footage at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n79nj6J2cqg
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,168

    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?

    Suspect WBA possible points deduction? Unlikely but as far as I know still tbc.
    Would require Leicester to win both games - including Milwall, scrapping with Ipswich for automatic promotion. That would take them to 46, so they still can't get better than third from bottom even if they beat Blackburn in their other game.

    So not to be relegated they would need to win both games and for Baggies to lose both their games (Ipswich - likely and Sheffield Wednesday - less likely). So if West Brom score no more points and Leicester get 6, then West Brom would have to be deducted 4 points with a worse goal difference or 5 points for Leicester to stay up. Last year, Forest were deducted 4 points.

    Not mathematically impossible for Leicester to be saved. But it requires a weird set of outcomes - or a very vindictive FA.
    As a Swindon fan I can testify to the vindictiveness of the FA (or at least it was in 1990).
  • So we’re just full on Boris Johnson territory now.

    What a fucking travesty this has all turned out to be.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    Roger said:

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.

    And I have concluded that is why MPs have not moved.

    They are waiting for Burnham, that’s all there is to it.

    Labour have to be careful about this though. If they are seen to be fixating on internal party machinations to get Burnham into parliament at all costs purely on the basis of replacing Starmer in some weird deal, it could come back to bite them.
    Particularly being as Burnham is a venal t***.
    He wouldn't be my choice but the choices are getting smaller. Thornberry blew it for me yesterday when she put up a half baked reason for Starmer firing Olly. Even she looked embarrassed. Lammy's out as is Cooper (Gaza related) McFadden was pathetic this morning........It's beginning to look easier to walk through the eye of a needle.....
    I do not think I have ever seen a government minister so lost for words than McFadden in his interview with Sophy Ridge on Sky this morning

    He was lost for words and frankly I felt sorry for him, and that Starmer could even put a colleague in this position
    Healey on Nick Ferrari a couple of weeks ago?

    Boris Johnson discussing Peppa Pig with the CBI?
    I didnt see Healey and Boris being Boris is baked in

    I genuinely felt sorry for McFadden, but he is not responsible for this mess
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137

    Anyone know why Betfair have not paid out on Leicester getting relegated (hat tip Foxy)?

    Suspect WBA possible points deduction? Unlikely but as far as I know still tbc.
    Would require Leicester to win both games - including Milwall, scrapping with Ipswich for automatic promotion. That would take them to 46, so they still can't get better than third from bottom even if they beat Blackburn in their other game.

    So not to be relegated they would need to win both games and for Baggies to lose both their games (Ipswich - likely and Sheffield Wednesday - less likely). So if West Brom score no more points and Leicester get 6, then West Brom would have to be deducted 4 points with a worse goal difference or 5 points for Leicester to stay up. Last year, Forest were deducted 4 points.

    Not mathematically impossible for Leicester to be saved. But it requires a weird set of outcomes - or a very vindictive FA.
    48 points is Leicester's ceiling now, Baggies floor is 52 minus their deduction.

    It'd probably be Oxford not Leicester benefitting if the FA are vindictive though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323
    PMQs in 10 minutes. I wonder what Kemi will ask about.
This discussion has been closed.