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Keir today, gone tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    Taz said:

    Thoughts and prayers for my fellow Brummie and Bluenose, Brixian

    ‘ A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."’

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/2044816110084571509?s=61

    Starmer: now in office, but not in power.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:
    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,293

    Taz said:

    Thoughts and prayers for my fellow Brummie and Bluenose, Brixian

    ‘ A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."’

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/2044816110084571509?s=61

    Starmer: now in office, but not in power.
    Not even in office, he's usually on a plane somewhere
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    Should appeal to a handful of nihilistic misanthropes who fool themselves into believing it is noble.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134

    Aubrey from the Times tweets
    A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."

    Yawn. Wake me up when Labour MPs actually start to come for him on the record.

    They were like this at the end of the Brown era too - relentless hand-wringing around how doomed they were, but never actually trying to do anything about it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    https://x.com/i/status/2044808984041799964
    Its Hodges, but its Hodges with a point

    He spends every working day making comments on politics, statistics are on his side to get some things right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    edited April 16

    Scott_xP said:

    Ten day ceasefire in Lebanon.

    Announced by the Mad King

    The Israeli's have not agreed to it, and in fact didn't know about it before his tweet
    So, the Iranians demanded it as a precursor to more meetings in Islamabad.

    Trump is so desperate for a deal with Tehran that he has bounced Tel Aviv - like he in turn was bounced by Bibi.

    Heart of stone etc....
    This was done to get Epstein off the UK front pages tomorrow presumably?
    Unfortunately for Donald, these stories are going to be saved up to fill a pull-out weekend supplement....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Aubrey from the Times tweets
    A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."

    Yawn. Wake me up when Labour MPs actually start to come for him on the record.

    They were like this at the end of the Brown era too - relentless hand-wringing around how doomed they were, but never actually trying to do anything about it.
    And the Corbyn era. Endless whinges from off the record types.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398

    Aubrey from the Times tweets
    A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."

    Yawn. Wake me up when Labour MPs actually start to come for him on the record.

    They were like this at the end of the Brown era too - relentless hand-wringing around how doomed they were, but never actually trying to do anything about it.
    And how many years were they out of power as a result?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    nico67 said:

    If Starmer over ruled the vetting process in terms of security clearance then surely he’s toast.

    I can’t see how he can survive this and it calls into question why on earth you’d take that chance ?

    It’s one thing appointing him after a less than stellar vetting process but one which although poor was followed properly.

    It’s a totally different scenario if he over ruled the security concerns .

    The question is did he "lie" to Parliament. I'd say not on the answer he gave to Badenoch.

    Nonetheless it is a death by a thousand cuts. He should just go.

    Does Starmer's resignation cleanse Boris Johnson of all wrongdoing?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,293

    Scott_xP said:

    Ten day ceasefire in Lebanon.

    Announced by the Mad King

    The Israeli's have not agreed to it, and in fact didn't know about it before his tweet
    So, the Iranians demanded it as a precursor to more meetings in Islamabad.

    Trump is so desperate for a deal with Tehran that he has bounced Tel Aviv - like he in turn was bounced by Bibi.

    Heart of stone etc....
    This was done to get Epstein off the UK front pages tomorrow presumably?
    Unfortunately for Donald, these stories are going to be saved up to fill a pull-out weekend supplement....
    Ive been hearing this for years. Cant they just get on with it ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:
    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    A few examples - this is not my area especially but a lot is seeming to adjust slowly or rapidly:

    - Share of reserve currency,
    - US world-spanning companies losing markets at pace (eg Microsoft in European public sectors),
    - Creation of more advanced alternative non-USA touching payment systems,
    - Cloud data storage being moved due to a US Govt right to direct access which is starting to matter,
    -Canada redirecting its export markets (eg aluminium, potentially potash) at some pace.
    - The numbers I have are that personal Canadian tourism to the USA is down something like 20-30% over 2 years, and many US Health staff are moving to Canada. That's just reported.

    And that leaves aside the Constitutional problems, as Trump & Co try to rub out USA democracy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816

    Taz said:

    Thoughts and prayers for my fellow Brummie and Bluenose, Brixian

    ‘ A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."’

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/2044816110084571509?s=61

    Starmer: now in office, but not in power.
    Hasn't that been the case since July 5th 2024? An unexpected disappointment.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    Call it ‘Rewild’ and you might get a development grant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:
    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    A few examples - this is not my area especially but a lot is seeming to adjust slowly or rapidly:

    - Share of reserve currency,
    - US world-spanning companies losing markets at pace (eg Microsoft in European public sectors),
    - Creation of more advanced alternative non-USA touching payment systems,
    - Cloud data storage being moved due to a US Govt right to direct access which is starting to matter,
    -Canada redirecting its export markets (eg aluminium, potentially potash) at some pace.
    - The numbers I have are that personal Canadian tourism to the USA is down something like 20-30% over 2 years, and many US Health staff are moving to Canada. That's just reported.

    And that leaves aside the Constitutional problems, as Trump & Co try to rub out USA democracy.
    US share of defence exports is probably due to take a very large hit, too.

    Though the impact of that will be masked for a time by the massive increase in the US defence budget.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Cox-Richardson is well up to date on the politics as she engages every day, but Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:

    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    Washington Week is a weekly island of urbane and good humoured, informed sanity in an ocean of bedlam. It reminds me of what America was, and partly is, and in time will be again. As Alistair Cooke is dead it will have to suffice.

    Strongly recommended for those who don't know it yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    In 2016 Norway gave every 5-year-old child an iPad.

    Within a few years, Norway's reading scores plummeted and dropped below the OECD average.

    They ranked dead last out of 65 countries.

    Now Norway is spending millions of dollars to reverse this trend and get people reading.

    https://x.com/AlexAndBooks_/status/2044442764989890729
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    All that Starmershite in the Telegraph over the course of two years and it is the Guardian that brings Starmer down. Who would have thought it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 16
    Somewhat true

    The US is a much richer country than the UK, because they have better economic policies in several key areas. I'd rather have those here.

    But they also have a variety of social dysfunctions, which I rather wouldn't have here.

    Two things can be true.

    https://nitter.poast.org/K_Niemietz/status/2044722912117014585#m
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    edited April 16
    Hell hath no fury like a woman passed over for the job of attorney general.

    https://x.com/EmilyThornberry/status/2044816499173462518

    My committee asked several times whether red flags had been raised by Peter Mandelson's vetting process. It seems there were.

    Who overrode these concerns? Why were we kept in the dark?

    People need to stop messing us about and tell us the truth.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    Put 1 and 2 the other way round and I'd be worried, but as it stands, fine.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Hell hath no fury like a woman passed over for the job of attorney general.

    https://x.com/EmilyThornberry/status/2044816499173462518

    My committee asked several times whether red flags had been raised by Peter Mandelson's vetting process. It seems there were.

    Who overrode these concerns? Why were we kept in the dark?

    People need to stop messing us about and tell us the truth.

    Still not sure why she was the only one passed over. She's no worse than any of the rest.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    Foss said:

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    Call it ‘Rewild’ and you might get a development grant.
    "Wild? I was absolutely livid!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    Scott_xP said:

    Ten day ceasefire in Lebanon.

    Announced by the Mad King

    The Israeli's have not agreed to it, and in fact didn't know about it before his tweet
    So, the Iranians demanded it as a precursor to more meetings in Islamabad.

    Trump is so desperate for a deal with Tehran that he has bounced Tel Aviv - like he in turn was bounced by Bibi.

    Heart of stone etc....
    This was done to get Epstein off the UK front pages tomorrow presumably?
    [Slovenian accent] "I did not have a relationship with Epstein."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    Nigelb said:

    In 2016 Norway gave every 5-year-old child an iPad.

    Within a few years, Norway's reading scores plummeted and dropped below the OECD average.

    They ranked dead last out of 65 countries.

    Now Norway is spending millions of dollars to reverse this trend and get people reading.

    https://x.com/AlexAndBooks_/status/2044442764989890729

    Sometimes ideas can seem like a good idea but actually turn out to not be so. Is it just hindsight benefit to say that doesn't seem like it was ever a good idea?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,140
    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Sky and the Mail (at least) both reported vetting concerns had been overruled in September. Number 10s defence is farcical
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    I have just discovered that Mike "The Cool Person" in The Young Ones payed a Sontaran in The Trial of a Time Lord in 1986 - and then reprised this role as General Staal in 2008 and 2010.

    And he was only a late replacement in The Young Ones for Peter Richardson (whose house I look across the valley at, from my front windows).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    Would Lammy take over in the interim if Starmer resigns as PM ?

    I’ve gone off him after his so called bromance with JD Vance .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    edited April 16
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2044808207114108984

    So it sounds like The Guardian's extraordinary story that Lord Mandelson failed his security vetting clearance but was overruled by the foreign office is broadly correct - some kind of statement is in the offing

    It's not clear what that will say, but the line I've had from a few people is that No 10 was completely unaware - including Starmer. Cabinet Office's PET also said to be unaware. Which seems insane

    Morgan McSweeney was said to be unaware. Mandelson himself was said to be unaware

    If so it obviously poses big questions for the foreign office and particularly Olly Robbins, the permanent secretary

    Never in the history of human endeavor has so little been known by so many.
    Other than at the Post Office. Based on that precedent, Starmer, Mandelson and co have nothing to worry about - it doesn't do to hold the right sort of people to account for their actions/inactions.
    #Nu10K

    After the Battle of Jutland

    1) Admiral Jellicoe ordered that the report on why battlecruisers had been a bit explody was altered. So that instead of blaming senior officers for ignoring ammunition handling regulations and building a train of explosives from the turrets to the magazines, the armour (insufficient) was blamed.

    2) the Shells Committee was tasked with finding out why the British shells were a bit crap. It turned out (among other things) that the elaborate testing process was actually equivalent to testing shells from each batch. Until one passed. Then the whole batch was passed. So fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, pass was ok…

    1) is the classic responses of The System
    2) comes to mind because…- the system for vetting people seems to consist of vetting them and the appointing them whether they pass or fail vetting….
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    Youre lucky! Ive had just one leaflet from the Lib Dems when they canvassed a month ago. And this ought to be a three way fight! (LD REF CON)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,477
    edited April 16
    kle4 said:

    Somewhat true

    The US is a much richer country than the UK, because they have better economic policies in several key areas. I'd rather have those here.

    But they also have a variety of social dysfunctions, which I rather wouldn't have here.

    Two things can be true.

    https://nitter.poast.org/K_Niemietz/status/2044722912117014585#m

    The two facts are also related IMHO. The US is a winner takes all society. That creates powerful economic incentives, good for GDP, bad for the economy's (many) losers. You can't have the upside without the downside.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    Rough journey back from rural Derbyshire - every Highway authority under the sun seems anxious to spend their 2026-27 budget as quickly as possible. I thought I could dodge the lorry fire on the M11 via the A10 and the A120 - the latter had horrendous road works. The epitome of driving from the frying fan into the fire as it turned out.

    If what the Guardian has discovered is true, it's certainly concerning but unfortunately we ought to need proof, not speculation, before we hang anyone in politics. though I'm well aware that's far from bening how the world works.

    Who then overrruled the original vetting decision and is there a clear audit trail to that decision? Whoever took the final decision is buttered and ready to have some really good marmalade on top. You might argue Starmer, if not actually taking the decision, made it very clear what he wanted that decision to be but, absent any evidence, that's speculation.

    House of Commons Library:

    Once an individual has been selected, the Foreign Secretary (with the Prime Minister’s approval for senior postings) makes a formal submission to the King recommending their appointment


    It is not credible that the FS and PM did not know of the vetting fail and overruled the decision. The power lies nowhere else. In the case of PeterM, even (per impossibile) if they didn't know it is obvious that the question should be asked so that they could find out.
    Therefore there's a record of the overruling of the original decision. Let's see it, out here, in the public domain. Was it Lammy (with Starmer's approval) or Starmer overruling Lammy and the FO? If the latter, Lammy is fine - if the former, he is in the same pool of ordure as the Prime Minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    If I'm uncertain then rewarding those that at least pretend to mention some local issues is a tie breaker.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    nico67 said:

    Would Lammy take over in the interim if Starmer resigns as PM ?

    I’ve gone off him after his so called bromance with JD Vance .

    I think the cabinet/ NEC agree an interim if SKS goes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430
    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 132

    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence

    What official would have the authority to override the security service vetting without consulting a minister? And why would they?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    trukat said:

    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence

    What official would have the authority to override the security service vetting without consulting a minister? And why would they?
    A pertinent question. There are many things that officials can do, so maybe they could, but they would want to cover their arses.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    trukat said:

    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence

    What official would have the authority to override the security service vetting without consulting a minister? And why would they?
    Indeed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    algarkirk said:

    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.

    At a point it becomes willful ignorance and no longer a defence.

    The outcome of 'bring me solutions not problems' leadership (one of the most ridiculous of approaches).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547

    kle4 said:

    Somewhat true

    The US is a much richer country than the UK, because they have better economic policies in several key areas. I'd rather have those here.

    But they also have a variety of social dysfunctions, which I rather wouldn't have here.

    Two things can be true.

    https://nitter.poast.org/K_Niemietz/status/2044722912117014585#m

    The two facts are also related IMHO. The US is a winner takes all society. That creates powerful economic incentives, good for GDP, bad for the economy's (many) losers. You can't have the upside without the downside.
    It’s an also a fascinating mix *within sectors* - extreme regulatory capture and state market interference right next to free-for-alls.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,519

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    In fairness it’s a very green agenda too. Not many emissions after 1 and 2.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,923

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    Youre lucky! Ive had just one leaflet from the Lib Dems when they canvassed a month ago. And this ought to be a three way fight! (LD REF CON)
    I received 7 leaflets from the LDs in one election, 6 of them unique from each other.

    Yes I did vote for them, but it was a bit much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    algarkirk said:

    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.

    He could go for the "Dominic Cummings was right" defence and blame an out of control Whitehall blob keeping elected politicians in the dark.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    A
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    In fairness it’s a very green agenda too. Not many emissions after 1 and 2.
    At the rate this is gathering support, I predict we will win the next election.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    I think proceeding with yesterdays mooted plan to prorogue on Tuesday (thereby avouding PMQs till the new session/after LEs) would be Yes Minister 'brave'
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,784
    Taz said:

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2044789026763247821

    Last September, Keir Starmer told Parliament three times that “full due process” was followed over the appointment of Lord Mandelson.

    We now know the Prime Minister misled the House.

    The Prime Minister must take responsibility.

    She’s right,I’m afraid.
    I think (as I've said before and I'm sure people are bored with it by now) that Starmer is constitutionally incapable of recognising fault and will always deflect it to somebody/something else, whilst looking slightly puzzled that somebody could even think such a thing.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    glw said:

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
    At what point does that put the prosecutions he made in his past life at risk?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354
    edited April 16
    If Starmer is smart, then there will be nothing in writing about him overruling vetting decision.

    And it will have been Morgan McSweeney who gave the order and everyone interpreting that this is what Starmer wanted.

    Edit - It does seem a bit ironic that he has come a cropper the one time he probably should have followed due process...
  • And so another day where Pb and Twitter assures us this will be the end of Sir Keir.

    And yet still only anonymous briefing.

    Not close to the end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    This appears to be a new poll with prompting for Restore:

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 21%
    🌳 CON: 18%
    🌍 GRN: 18%
    🌹 LAB: 17%
    🔶 LDM: 11%
    🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)

    [@FindoutnowUK]

    How many candidates are they fielding in the locals? How many will they have in the GE?
    Negligible to bugger all.

    We'll see if they are intending to be more than a footnote in the next year I guess.
    I’m starting a new party.

    Revive

    Unlike those ultra woke lefties in Restore, we have a Real Program for Real Patriots.

    1) Immigration - instant expulsion without appeal for everyone. The entire population
    2) Death Penalty - instant death penalty for everyone
    3) Tax - none - see (1) & (2)
    4) Budget Deficit - see (1) & (2)
    5) House building - see (1) & (2)
    6) Infrastructure - see see (1) & (2)

    We have the only, fully costed plan to achieve zero taxes and no budget deficit of any of the parties in the U.K.!
    In fairness it’s a very green agenda too. Not many emissions after 1 and 2.
    You'd have to ban cremations in your policies though. Or there'll be a hell of a spike...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,477

    kle4 said:

    Somewhat true

    The US is a much richer country than the UK, because they have better economic policies in several key areas. I'd rather have those here.

    But they also have a variety of social dysfunctions, which I rather wouldn't have here.

    Two things can be true.

    https://nitter.poast.org/K_Niemietz/status/2044722912117014585#m

    The two facts are also related IMHO. The US is a winner takes all society. That creates powerful economic incentives, good for GDP, bad for the economy's (many) losers. You can't have the upside without the downside.
    It’s an also a fascinating mix *within sectors* - extreme regulatory capture and state market interference right next to free-for-alls.
    The differences between advanced Western economies often come down to doing the same things in slightly different ways. Every country has its own individual and inconsistent mix of policies, often from accumulated accidents of history. That are then passed off as huge differences in philosophy.
    I'm in the US currently. The mix of extreme prosperity side by side with derelict mentally ill people slumped on the street or on public transport remains striking. Evidence of an AI obsession most likely signaling a bubble are everywhere too. It's like stepping into another world.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,140
    kle4 said:

    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    If I'm uncertain then rewarding those that at least pretend to mention some local issues is a tie breaker.
    Interestingly the Tory leaflet is much more focussed on council matters than in the past. Previously they consisted mostly of photos of Rosindell campaigning, often on national issues.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    rkrkrk said:

    If Starmer is smart, then there will be nothing in writing about him overruling vetting decision.

    And it will have been Morgan McSweeney who gave the order and everyone interpreting that this is what Starmer wanted.

    Edit - It does seem a bit ironic that he has come a cropper the one time he probably should have followed due process...

    I don’t think that works . If he over ruled the original decision there would be a paper trail.

    Starmer needs to hold a news conference or come to the Commons and explain fully what’s happened .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398

    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence

    At some point you have a "Not my fucking fault, you ****" circular firing squad...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Cox-Richardson is well up to date on the politics as she engages every day, but Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:

    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    Washington Week is a weekly island of urbane and good humoured, informed sanity in an ocean of bedlam. It reminds me of what America was, and partly is, and in time will be again. As Alistair Cooke is dead it will have to suffice.

    Strongly recommended for those who don't know it yet.
    Urbane is a good word. But for me it's a bit "Ladies Who Lunch".

    And I get the feeling that when the USD stops being global reserve currency, or Hegseth is arrested on an ICC warrant going through an airport in Spain or Denmark, they may be surprised.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited April 16

    No 10 going with the blame officials at the FO defence

    At some point you have a "Not my fucking fault, you ****" circular firing squad...
    Hopefully someone in the FCDO will say fuck this for a game of soldiers and drop him in it
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,140
    kle4 said:

    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    Youre lucky! Ive had just one leaflet from the Lib Dems when they canvassed a month ago. And this ought to be a three way fight! (LD REF CON)
    I received 7 leaflets from the LDs in one election, 6 of them unique from each other.

    Yes I did vote for them, but it was a bit much.
    I can believe that. In my LD activist days I did once manage to deliver 4 separate leaflets on my round in a target ward, one each week. I also canvassed and on finding someone in for the first time on the 3rd canvas he said 'I'm a Conservative really but I'm going to vote for you because you've called 3 times and the Tories haven't called once"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,784

    I have just discovered that Mike "The Cool Person" in The Young Ones payed a Sontaran in The Trial of a Time Lord in 1986 - and then reprised this role as General Staal in 2008 and 2010.

    And he was only a late replacement in The Young Ones for Peter Richardson (whose house I look across the valley at, from my front windows).

    I knew he was a sontaran in New Who: he has a distinctive voice. What I didn't get was that the person doing the voice of "House" in "The Doctor's Wife" is...Michael Sheen.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKEv8sGnths
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430

    algarkirk said:

    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.

    He could go for the "Dominic Cummings was right" defence and blame an out of control Whitehall blob keeping elected politicians in the dark.
    In this case, PeterM being who he is, only if the FS/PM have asked the right questions about security/vetting and been lied to.

    Though i think Starmer is probably about the best person available to be PM at the moment - in a dreadful field - I think his position looks untenable.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,477
    glw said:

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
    Cough lawyer cough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    "If that is right, and no official is denying that, it is impossible to see how he keeps his job."

    Says Peston.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234
    Taz said:

    Thoughts and prayers for my fellow Brummie and Bluenose, Brixian

    ‘ A Labour MP texts: "We were at the beginning of the end a while back. This is the end of the end."’

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/2044816110084571509?s=61

    He'll weather this. I expect him on any time to report a TERRRRRIBLE NIGHT FOR KEMI.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    glw said:

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
    Cough lawyer cough.
    Hmmmm.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376

    "If that is right, and no official is denying that, it is impossible to see how he keeps his job."

    Says Peston.
    Thats Olly Robbins though, not SKS
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    Kemi calls for Starmer to resign. A risk.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2r15151xgo

    This is not "Live" but is being frequently edited.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.

    He could go for the "Dominic Cummings was right" defence and blame an out of control Whitehall blob keeping elected politicians in the dark.
    In this case, PeterM being who he is, only if the FS/PM have asked the right questions about security/vetting and been lied to.

    Though i think Starmer is probably about the best person available to be PM at the moment - in a dreadful field - I think his position looks untenable.

    It now really is the perfect shit-storm for Labour going into the locals. Can't stand by the leader, but can't agree who his replacement should be.

    If they get obliterated, Starmer the HAS to take the blame - and fall on his sword.

    Oh, sorry - Health and Safety have banned swords. Ah. Problem.
  • I just drank about £300 worth of Irish whiskey. In 5 glasses. The best stuff is expensive. Luckily I didn't pay
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,882
    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Cox-Richardson is well up to date on the politics as she engages every day, but Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:

    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    Washington Week is a weekly island of urbane and good humoured, informed sanity in an ocean of bedlam. It reminds me of what America was, and partly is, and in time will be again. As Alistair Cooke is dead it will have to suffice.

    Strongly recommended for those who don't know it yet.
    Urbane is a good word. But for me it's a bit "Ladies Who Lunch".

    And I get the feeling that when the USD stops being global reserve currency, or Hegseth is arrested on an ICC warrant going through an airport in Spain or Denmark, they may be surprised.
    I rather like the phrase 'ladies who lunch'. There's a great place (a bit of a chain now) Mr Foggs - where you can basically go and have dainty sandwiches and drink gin out of teapots. I'm not sure I'd do it again, but just the once was great. (Handily we avoided the all-female gangs that I suspect are their main clientele.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234
    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2r15151xgo

    This is not "Live" but is being frequently edited.

    Didn't cross his desk.

    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,959
    When Pettie first revealed to be big buds with Jeff way after he went it jail, we really led to believe nobody asked any questions about anything. Nothing. Not a jot. Especially as widely thought Jeff probably was an intelligence asset.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,649

    glw said:

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
    Cough lawyer cough.
    Hmmmm.
    Are you not personally concerned, TSE, that he may be tarnishing the reputation of your profession?





    [Whistles innocently.]
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    "A government spokesperson said: "The decision to grant Developed Vetting to Peter Mandelson against the recommendation of UK Security Vetting was taken by officials in the FCDO.

    "Neither the prime minister, nor any government minister, was aware that Peter Mandelson was granted Developed Vetting against the advice of UK Security Vetting until earlier this week."

    Can Souper Douper Developed Vetting be far behind?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398

    Is Starmer ever aware of anything going on? Does he just sit in a cupboard all day and not talk to anybody nor ever recieve any information about anything. It certainly seems that way.

    Mandelson = Prince of Darkness

    Starmer = Prince of In the Dark
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874

    "If that is right, and no official is denying that, it is impossible to see how he keeps his job."

    Says Peston.
    To be clear, he in this context is Olly Robbins.

    Something has clearly gone horribly wrong here, even if the PM didn't know, and at some point that becomes the PM's problem.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    PJH said:

    Change of subject - 3 weeks to go to the Local Elections and I've never had so many leaflets before in an entire campaign, let alone this far out from polling day! Normally by now I would have had one Tory leaflet, if that.

    My ward in Havering was split last time between two Residents Association and one Conservative. To add to the confusion neither RA Councillor is standing again, but the Tory switched sides at some point last year and is now standing again for the RA.

    Leading the delivery race so far are the RAs, with 3 hand delivered ward leaflets. That's 3 more than I've received from them since moving here over 3 years ago/ (I'm not impressed as I would have thought the RAs would be the most likely to be in touch between elections). All three are very locally focussed, highlighting the candidates, defending the record of the council, the most informative - local people, local issues. Curiously, none of them lives in the ward.

    Next is Reform, with two separate postal deliveries (they must have plenty of money) and also a calling card from canvassing - they came in the middle of the day which shows that they don't expect their target voters to be out at work. One letter and leaflet from Farage, only one of the 5 pledges has anything to do with the Council. Another letter from Rosindell defending his defection.

    Just one leaflet from the Tories so far, with details on local candidates and focussed on local policies. A separate borough-wide flyer came with it to scare voters about the impact of Reform's plan to leave London, on the increased cost of commuting and losing the Freedom Pass. They have also canvassed while I was out. And unlike the RAs they get a point for having had a leaflet drop every quarter since I moved here (and for 20 years in my previous ward).

    One generic borough 'newspaper' from the Greens. Probably not trying here, haven't heard from them outside the GE.

    One leaflet from Labour, with details of candidates. Unfortunately it is for the wrong ward (the boundary is in the middle of the road).

    So far I'm minded to give my anti-Reform votes to the Tories, as a reward for their consistency, rather than the RAs, as politically there isn't much difference, and I can't tell who is more likely to win.

    If I'm uncertain then rewarding those that at least pretend to mention some local issues is a tie breaker.
    Interestingly the Tory leaflet is much more focussed on council matters than in the past. Previously they consisted mostly of photos of Rosindell campaigning, often on national issues.
    Whereas the Reform leaflets are packed with Rosser, and his obsessions (Hexit, flags, that's about it).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234

    Is Starmer ever aware of anything going on? Does he just sit in a cupboard all day and not talk to anybody nor ever recieve any information about anything. It certainly seems that way.

    Mandelson = Prince of Darkness

    Starmer = Prince of In the Dark
    Starmer = Prince's Salmon, tin, IQ of.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,257
    Reform do seem to be spending a lot of money on these elections but concentrating on national rather than local issues. Since they have so much cash (or crypto) I've replied to the local Reform HQ with my wallet address.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Seems a shame to waste the (+1) in his personal ratings since muh war
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    edited April 16

    Is Starmer ever aware of anything going on? Does he just sit in a cupboard all day and not talk to anybody nor ever recieve any information about anything. It certainly seems that way.

    Well you have posted all sorts of shite that Starmer delegates EVERYTHING, so the fact he was unaware is not beyond the realm of reality.

    I'd still like him to go. He has managed to turn the Government's best news day in almost two years into an absolute fiasco.

    Being bad at politics isn't good enough for a Prime Minister.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,271

    You will hear of vetting and rumours of vetting but see to it you are not alarmed for such things must come to not pass

    No wonder Keir was such a tosser to Hoyle yesterday, Pippa must have told him he was getting rumbled today in the Guardian

    This vetting was as successful as a Reform vetting process.
    Or a Green Party one. They have some absolute fruitloops standing as councillors in the local elections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Cox-Richardson is well up to date on the politics as she engages every day, but Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:

    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    Washington Week is a weekly island of urbane and good humoured, informed sanity in an ocean of bedlam. It reminds me of what America was, and partly is, and in time will be again. As Alistair Cooke is dead it will have to suffice.

    Strongly recommended for those who don't know it yet.
    Urbane is a good word. But for me it's a bit "Ladies Who Lunch".

    And I get the feeling that when the USD stops being global reserve currency, or Hegseth is arrested on an ICC warrant going through an airport in Spain or Denmark, they may be surprised.
    I rather like the phrase 'ladies who lunch'. There's a great place (a bit of a chain now) Mr Foggs - where you can basically go and have dainty sandwiches and drink gin out of teapots. I'm not sure I'd do it again, but just the once was great. (Handily we avoided the all-female gangs that I suspect are their main clientele.
    Round here they are rather more dangerous.

    Ladies Who Lynch.....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    edited April 16

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Guardian just now:

    No 10 claims Starmer did not know Mandelson had failed security vetting until this week

    Not entirely credible. Trouble.

    He could go for the "Dominic Cummings was right" defence and blame an out of control Whitehall blob keeping elected politicians in the dark.
    In this case, PeterM being who he is, only if the FS/PM have asked the right questions about security/vetting and been lied to.

    Though i think Starmer is probably about the best person available to be PM at the moment - in a dreadful field - I think his position looks untenable.

    It now really is the perfect shit-storm for Labour going into the locals. Can't stand by the leader, but can't agree who his replacement should be.

    If they get obliterated, Starmer the HAS to take the blame - and fall on his sword.

    Oh, sorry - Health and Safety have banned swords. Ah. Problem.
    It's the House of Commons.

    'Sword fighting is banned! It is forbidden! It is taboo!
    Back stabbing on the other hand...'

    Jeremy Hanley showing new MP Gyles Brandreth around in April 1992.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.

    Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites

    Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector


    Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

    Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.

    Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.

    The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

    Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

    CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.

    Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.

    While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.

    Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/iran-war-hormuz-uk-supermarkets-food-shortages-chicken-g620j8xrg

    Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
    I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
    Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).

    But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
    The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.

    Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?

    That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
    Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
    Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.

    There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
    Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.

    Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.

    Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.

    This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.

    So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
    Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
    That's important. It is the same as the traditional American world-ending-at-the-edge-of-the-USA silo.

    Even amongst USA intellectuals, to me they seem to be naive as to what is happening to their country. They have a sort of conditioning inside their heads which is like an unconscious version of manifest destiny.

    Two examples:

    Here is a very good conversation between constitutional historian Heather Cox Richardson and economist Paul Krugman. Cox-Richardson is well up to date on the politics as she engages every day, but Krugman seems behind and some way behind how the whole world is pivoting away at some pace. That is particularly because of US overreach - such as laws on the Cloud that provide access to EU Country Government owned data, which now is starting to matter as the USA is no longer trustworthy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OtDhSdE6A

    Washington Week with the Atlantic still seems to want to treat US politics as a kind of beltway chess:

    https://www.youtube.com/@WashingtonWeekPBS/videos
    Washington Week is a weekly island of urbane and good humoured, informed sanity in an ocean of bedlam. It reminds me of what America was, and partly is, and in time will be again. As Alistair Cooke is dead it will have to suffice.

    Strongly recommended for those who don't know it yet.
    Urbane is a good word. But for me it's a bit "Ladies Who Lunch".

    And I get the feeling that when the USD stops being global reserve currency, or Hegseth is arrested on an ICC warrant going through an airport in Spain or Denmark, they may be surprised.
    I rather like the phrase 'ladies who lunch'. There's a great place (a bit of a chain now) Mr Foggs - where you can basically go and have dainty sandwiches and drink gin out of teapots. I'm not sure I'd do it again, but just the once was great. (Handily we avoided the all-female gangs that I suspect are their main clientele.
    Round here they are rather more dangerous.

    Ladies Who Lynch.....
    There's a fun Edinburgh charity event called Lunch with an old bag.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398

    "If that is right, and no official is denying that, it is impossible to see how he keeps his job."

    Says Peston.
    Thats Olly Robbins though, not SKS
    But Robbins going gives Starmer no cover.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    carnforth said:

    Kemi calls for Starmer to resign. A risk.

    Every opposition leader has done the same
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    edited April 16

    nico67 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Starmer is smart, then there will be nothing in writing about him overruling vetting decision.

    And it will have been Morgan McSweeney who gave the order and everyone interpreting that this is what Starmer wanted.

    Edit - It does seem a bit ironic that he has come a cropper the one time he probably should have followed due process...

    I don’t think that works . If he over ruled the original decision there would be a paper trail.

    Starmer needs to hold a news conference or come to the Commons and explain fully what’s happened .
    Well I really would like to know what happened here.

    It comes as a surprise to me that the FO has the authority to overrule the Vetting Committee and apparently without notifying the PM.

    Somebody is effing well lying. We need to be told who, and just as important, why.
    All that had to be said was "Mandelson was a friend of Epstein, Trump was a friend of Epstein, they moved in the same circles, that is why we are rolling the dice on Mandelson".

    It would be true too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    edited April 16

    glw said:

    Am I alone in thinking that it is disturbing that a former DPP seems to have no problem in lying to Parliament?

    However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.

    He's surprisingly slippery for someone who always makes the point that he has been following the rules.
    Cough lawyer cough.
    Hmmmm.
    Are you not personally concerned, TSE, that he may be tarnishing the reputation of your profession?





    [Whistles innocently.]
    How does one tarnish the reputation of a lawyer?

    is it possible? How?

    (Runs and hides with my just arrived bottle of Becherovka. I'm still waiting for the German and Belgian lagers it will be chasing.

    (* A "herbal bitters", which is modestly spicy for those who are not educated, which I met when in Prague in 2000 for the total eclipse and a Royal Ballet ballerina's wedding to one of the stage staff.

    ** To remind myself of the authentic taste I had no option other than to open the bottle.)

    *** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwUyDKXdhXE .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    edited April 16

    nico67 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Starmer is smart, then there will be nothing in writing about him overruling vetting decision.

    And it will have been Morgan McSweeney who gave the order and everyone interpreting that this is what Starmer wanted.

    Edit - It does seem a bit ironic that he has come a cropper the one time he probably should have followed due process...

    I don’t think that works . If he over ruled the original decision there would be a paper trail.

    Starmer needs to hold a news conference or come to the Commons and explain fully what’s happened .
    Well I really would like to know what happened here.

    It comes as a surprise to me that the FO has the authority to overrule the Vetting Committee and apparently without notifying the PM.

    Somebody is effing well lying. We need to be told who, and just as important, why.
    If Olly Robbins overruled the vetting and didn’t tell the PM then that’s pretty shocking.

    And there must be a paper trail of his decision .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,271
    Brixian59 said:

    Barnesian said:

    https://x.com/GregHeffer/status/2044796835538063529

    Starmer on 5 Feb: "There was... security vetting carried out independently by the security services, which is an intensive exercise that gave him clearance for the role, and you have to go through that before you take up the post."

    It may be that Starmer has only just found out that the Foreign Office (not Lammy) sat on the failure of the security clearance because it was just too embarrassing as Mandelson had already been appointed.
    Starmer thought Mandelson had passed the security clearance because he hadn't been told to the contrary.
    What a cockup.
    If this is what happened, Starmer will have hit the roof today. Heads will roll.
    Yes.

    Starmer's.
    A few more utterly incompetent civil servants.

    Starmer is far more effective than even Cummings and Truss at removing the blob

    Westminster and the 5% who have any interest in this ancient non story will masterbate and menstruate over it for the next week whilst the PM continues to protect the UK from another global crisis leading a country utterly destroyed and hollowed out by the Tories, Brexit and Tory Brexit corruption
    Do you think women menstruate at will? For sexual pleasure?
This discussion has been closed.