Keir today, gone tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Keir today, gone tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
My expectation is that Sir Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister this year simply because it is not in Labour’s nature to oust leaders but a few months ago I said the Lord Mandelson story could be Sir Keir’s Chris Pincher moment, the appointment and subsequent lies that saw Boris Johnson ousted as Prime Minister.
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https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2044788323797905472
Westminster Voting Intention:
➡️ REF: 21%
🌳 CON: 18%
🌍 GRN: 18%
🌹 LAB: 17%
🔶 LDM: 11%
🇬🇧 RTB: 9% (Restore Britain)
[@FindoutnowUK]
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/16/officials-debate-withholding-mandelson-vetting-documents-from-parliament
Senior government officials have been considering whether to withhold from parliament sensitive documents that show Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting before he assumed the role of US ambassador, the Guardian can reveal.
Any such decision could amount to an extraordinary breach of a parliamentary vote which ordered the release of “all papers” relevant to Mandelson’s appointment.
In bloc terms it’s not a huge outlier: ResRefCon 48, LLG 46
EVERYONE knows whose decision it was. I recall Lord Gove among others who have subsequently suffered from amnesia eulogising the genius of making Mandelson US Ambassador. Nice effort Keir, but Mandelson bit you on your ass, your decision, you carry the can, you have to go.
I can’t see how he can survive this and it calls into question why on earth you’d take that chance ?
It’s one thing appointing him after a less than stellar vetting process but one which although poor was followed properly.
It’s a totally different scenario if he over ruled the security concerns .
They are for that subset who think Nigel Farage is a woke lefty who wants to Islamify Britain.
Lowe claims they have 400 constituency branches up and running.
21% is, regardless, the lowest VI Find Out Now have had Reform on this parliament
Constituency
🟡 SNP 32% (-1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) ➡️ REF UK 18% (nc) 🌳 CON 12% (+1) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 7% (+1) ⬜ OTHER 3% (+1)
Change vs 10 Feb 2026
List
🟡 SNP 27% (-4) 🌹 LAB 17% (+1) ➡️ REF UK 17% (+1) 🌳 CON 14% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 11% (nc) ⬜ OTHER 2% (-1)
Change vs 10 Feb 2026
I think Tryl has mistyped Con in the list - the tables visual has them on 13 not 14
What a headline and I just cannot see anything but a Starmer resignation
I know, I know. But, Starmer believes this absolutely sincerely and because it is still proper process he will not see the issue at all.
And it was just a filler question!
https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2044794902253297680
Actually a good idea
If Starmer had over the UKSV personally, and agreed to release all the docs, surely there'd be leaks of preparations for his potential successors and SKS's departure?
the then Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, who I struggle to see as the mastermind behind the appointment,
(And before anyone jumps down my throat, thats a joke, a play on words, and not an encouragement for someone to go out punch someone)
Maybe Starmer expected him to pass that . Then Mandelson failed the clearance . Pulling his appointment would have been a total embarrassment. Having to explain he was appointed before all the checks had been done .
So it’s possible Starmer panicked, overruled and was hoping none of this would come out .
If the report is accurate then I don’t see anyway he can survive this .
If anyone is shocked by the decision that the Mandelson gamble was anything other than Starmer's throw of the dice they are not very good at reading political discourse.
Ultimately, BigG WILL be proved right regarding Starmer's resignation.
Following the run of fishy Scottish leaders, Labour seems to have quite a run of punnable characters.
No wonder Keir was such a tosser to Hoyle yesterday, Pippa must have told him he was getting rumbled today in the Guardian
Most of us would have cut ties the moment he was convicted if not sooner.
The only place I ever hear Restore mentioned is on here.
How are they at 9%?
If the Guardian report is correct then it’s impossible for him to remain PM .
The press and the opposition parties are going to have a field day. The Mandelson affair shows that Starmer's greatest attribute - his principled judgement - can be set aside at a moment's notice for reasons of expediency, cock-up or cover-up.
Game over.
Last September, Keir Starmer told Parliament three times that “full due process” was followed over the appointment of Lord Mandelson.
We now know the Prime Minister misled the House.
The Prime Minister must take responsibility.
The decision was Starmer's, the error was Starmer's. This is why he has to go quietly.
However much he might self-justify what he has said, he has been squirly to the point where the truth has been obscured = lying in my book.
He should still fall on his sword.
the presidenta Good Person does it, that means that it is not illegal"Not to say that SKS isn't useless. He is, in an almost endearingly clueless way, just that we can't all go around ditching people who have broken the law. Look at Timpson's. Caveat ofc being the nature of the offences but the principle should remain inviolate.
Not everyone but enough would have nodded along at that and even from this side of events would have understood an idea that didn't come off.
But politicians, and certainly Starmer, aren't built that way.
* There may be more respectable words that would sit better here.
There's no doubt that what one might describe as the "Carl Benjamin" element have lost confidence in Farage and are now supporting Lowe in a big way, and they are quite influential in those types of circles. That's why I made my 10% prediction.
Starmer on 5 Feb: "There was... security vetting carried out independently by the security services, which is an intensive exercise that gave him clearance for the role, and you have to go through that before you take up the post."
(It’s actually one of the reasons OGH asked me to edit PB, I am not one to equivocate, everybody knows where I stand.)
As indeed are many of the Conservative Party. An even greater proportion, since Reform's recruiting drive has hoovered up many of the shits.
I think we might be into ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky’ territory now.
And the 2027 locals will probably be even worse.
Still, all good sport ...
As I said last week, Israel may not have a friend left in the world soon.
Maybe Starmer asked them to go slow !
‘ Iran's Seyed Mohammad Marandi:
“Because of Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is preparing to destroy everything in the Persian Gulf - including all critical infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Temperatures will rise, the Peninsula will become uninhabitable, and the global economy will crash.”’
https://x.com/osint613/status/2044781309181002209?s=61