Westminster Magistrates' Court heard he wrote on Facebook, "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it", in April 2025.
Osborn, who was found guilty of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983, said his account was hacked.
District Judge Nina Tempia dismissed Osborn's claim that his account had been hacked and found him guilty of the charge.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Also, it's not even that. Supermarkets depend on people buying stuff at a roughly constant rate, when averaged out among many shoppers. All it needs is a bit of coordination, such as lots of people buying just one extra pack of loo roll at the same same time, to cause stocks to run out. At the time I heard people saying, "Oh, I thought I'd just get a couple of extra packs of loo roll because of all the idiots buying it all," completely oblivious to the fact that it was behaviour like theirs that was actually causing the issue. After all, they'd only bought a couple of extra packs, not a year's supply.
Yes. And then, of course, everyone who went to the supermarket who needed loo roll, and couldn't get it, was naturally going to buy a spare pack when they finally found some for sale. Any lack of reliability in supply will cause people to stock up, to protect themselves from that unreliability.
If everyone had gone into the pandemic with an extra pack of loo roll already stored up, then they would have been less fazed by a temporary absence of loo roll from the shelves, as they'd have the reserve to even out any variations in supply. This is the reason why European governments have started advising people to keep ~2 weeks of food (and various other essentials) in stock at home, so that resilience exists before a crisis hits.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Rationality and altruism/community are often in conflict.
The main value of rationality is justification, particularly to yourself.
Westminster Magistrates' Court heard he wrote on Facebook, "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it", in April 2025.
Osborn, who was found guilty of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983, said his account was hacked.
District Judge Nina Tempia dismissed Osborn's claim that his account had been hacked and found him guilty of the charge.
I hope she now starts a libel case against him as well....
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
In normal times.
Industrial CO2 is typically sourced where it is already separated from a gas stream as part of the process. So biomass upgrading, bioethanol, fertiliser production etc. The incremental cost of cleaning it up is relatively modest compared to the cost of a new CO2 capture plant on the back of a cement works, so has market advantage.
In future, when CO2 capture plants are operating to reduce emissions, a side stream of the captured CO2 could also be polished for Industrial use at low incremental cost.
Thanks- makes sense. Though isn't the implication of our Gulf-dependence that even that process struggles to make sense in the UK in pure business terms?
One of the lessons I took from the pandemic was that we've traded too much resilience for efficiency. Is this another example?
Not disagreeing with your point but trading-off efficiency creates its own resilience issues. A well known example is the First World War where Britain was highly dependent on food imports but had a very efficient agricultural sector. Meanwhile Germany was mostly self sufficient in food based on close to subsistence farming. Going into the war Britain was seen as vulnerable, yet it was Germany that starved, a major cause off its defeat.
I think it would be a mistake to position it as a question of resilience vs efficiency. I think it's generally more likely to be a consequence of Britain's record of chronic underinvestment.
If there's a lack of investment in new technology and new equipment, then facilities in Britain will obviously become relatively less efficient compared to those in other countries where there is more investment, producing more efficient facilities. if Britain had invested more over the last many decades, then it would enjoy greater efficiency and greater resilience.
The tradeoff is between immediate consumption, and investment to generate a return that allows for greater consumption later. Britain has made itself poorer, less efficient, more vulnerable to global shocks, and generally more miserable, by prioritising consumption today.
Even Britain's experience of austerity was in some respects a case of spend today and austerity tomorrow, certainly in comparison with some other European countries, and that's the current framework that the Treasury employs.
We're past the planning stage obviously, but it's reasonable in an unlikely but possible scenario of 20% of your oil suddenly disappearing to plan for dealing with certain effects of that rather event than preventing them. In other words we we might have to live without fizzy drinks for a while, and that's OK. The issue is that authorities aren't telling the public what is now likely to happen and why.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.
Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.
Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.
This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.
So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
They are a government surveilance system, and the covid lockdown was so the batteries could be changed. Hence the need for a new lockdown to change the batteries again.
It was 1987, Britain was reeling from dozens of IRA attacks in both Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher vowed to do whatever it would take to end the carnage.
As the violence continued unabated, Thatcher confided her concerns in US President Ronald Reagan during a secret meeting in Washington DC. Sensing the importance of this, the American leader divulged his own tactic for getting dirt on suspected communists, jihadi terrorists, anti-war protesters, and anyone else who were thought to threaten the US order. The answer, pigeons.
But not real pigeons. Biotechnology surveillance drones, harnessing the power of the pigeon, designed by the government to look, walk and squawk, just like real pigeons.
Hence the importance of tinfoil hats. It makes the wearer invisible to the surveillance pigeons as they can no longer detct the brainwaves.
Wow, every day is a learning day on PB. I thought those wearing tinfoil hats were just bonkers. Live and learn.
Piquant anecdote. Woke up in Ballycastle and got dressed ready for my itinerary and then I realised I needed a haircut. Postponed things to go for haircut. As I walked to the Turkish barber my belt broke and my jeans started falling down
I went for the haircut (holding up my jeans). Chatty barber. I told him my predicament. He called his friend and said “where can you buy a belt in Ballycastle”. He then got an answer and walked me to the nearby charity shop which had a big box of belts for £1 each and the nice Irish lady seemed pleased with an early start to trade. And my jeans stopped falling down
Everything good. A heartwarming tale of multicultural harmony except that as we parted the Turkish guy realised I live in london. And he said london has “too many foreigners now” and then, warming to his theme, he said “Dublin is even worse, much worse, where have all the Irish gone?”
Likely story... where'd you get that "my belt has broken line"? Harvey Weinstein?
Are you claiming I’m making this up?
Call Concern charity shop in Ballycastle and ask if a handsome Englishman came in this morning with an amusing Turkish guy, looking desperately for a belt
Piquant anecdote. Woke up in Ballycastle and got dressed ready for my itinerary and then I realised I needed a haircut. Postponed things to go for haircut. As I walked to the Turkish barber my belt broke and my jeans started falling down
I went for the haircut (holding up my jeans). Chatty barber. I told him my predicament. He called his friend and said “where can you buy a belt in Ballycastle”. He then got an answer and walked me to the nearby charity shop which had a big box of belts for £1 each and the nice Irish lady seemed pleased with an early start to trade. And my jeans stopped falling down
Everything good. A heartwarming tale of multicultural harmony except that as we parted the Turkish guy realised I live in london. And he said london has “too many foreigners now” and then, warming to his theme, he said “Dublin is even worse, much worse, where have all the Irish gone?”
Likely story... where'd you get that "my belt has broken line"? Harvey Weinstein?
Are you claiming I’m making this up?
Call Concern charity shop in Ballycastle and ask if a handsome Englishman came in this morning with an amusing Turkish guy, looking desperately for a belt
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Also, it's not even that. Supermarkets depend on people buying stuff at a roughly constant rate, when averaged out among many shoppers. All it needs is a bit of coordination, such as lots of people buying just one extra pack of loo roll at the same same time, to cause stocks to run out. At the time I heard people saying, "Oh, I thought I'd just get a couple of extra packs of loo roll because of all the idiots buying it all," completely oblivious to the fact that it was behaviour like theirs that was actually causing the issue. After all, they'd only bought a couple of extra packs, not a year's supply.
Yes. And then, of course, everyone who went to the supermarket who needed loo roll, and couldn't get it, was naturally going to buy a spare pack when they finally found some for sale. Any lack of reliability in supply will cause people to stock up, to protect themselves from that unreliability.
If everyone had gone into the pandemic with an extra pack of loo roll already stored up, then they would have been less fazed by a temporary absence of loo roll from the shelves, as they'd have the reserve to even out any variations in supply. This is the reason why European governments have started advising people to keep ~2 weeks of food (and various other essentials) in stock at home, so that resilience exists before a crisis hits.
A streaming cold last week meant I burned through a dozen boxes of tissues that I'd been accidentally hoarding (although I'm not sure the good people at Kleenex haven't done their part by reducing the number of tissues per box).
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
Diseasal is in everything. Ingredients, packaging, supplies etc all get delivered by diesel. So much food is packed in plastic which is made with diesel. Farmers need diesel for everything they do on the farm. And that just gets you to a finished product. Which gets hauled by diesel to a warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to a supermarket warehouse and then onto another diesel truck to the actual store. Get a delivery? Diesel van.
Best thing about diesel? We send the oil we get from the north sea abroad to be refined, and then bring in actual diesel. So that's diesel on ships two ways plus trucks to and from the refinery etc etc etc.
Have read a few things on MAGA twitter that they are doing the blockade to force the world to buy oil from Trump (US/Venezuela) in dollars and thus protect the petrodollar.
This is The End. If the war doesn't end with American dominance of global energy supplies then the petrodollar is finished. And that means the US economy is finished.
So yeah, we're caught up in a giant shell game. And its going to significantly damage us.
Has MAGA noticed Trump's tariffs actively harmed the dollar as petrocurrency and reserve currency?
Be fair they have spent the week working really hard on the tricky problem of is tweeting an image of yourself posing as Jesus Christ and attacking the Pope either a tad blasphemous and/or a sign of going a bit loopy. One step at a time please.........
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
In normal times.
Industrial CO2 is typically sourced where it is already separated from a gas stream as part of the process. So biomass upgrading, bioethanol, fertiliser production etc. The incremental cost of cleaning it up is relatively modest compared to the cost of a new CO2 capture plant on the back of a cement works, so has market advantage.
In future, when CO2 capture plants are operating to reduce emissions, a side stream of the captured CO2 could also be polished for Industrial use at low incremental cost.
Thanks- makes sense. Though isn't the implication of our Gulf-dependence that even that process struggles to make sense in the UK in pure business terms?
One of the lessons I took from the pandemic was that we've traded too much resilience for efficiency. Is this another example?
Not disagreeing with your point but trading-off efficiency creates its own resilience issues. A well known example is the First World War where Britain was highly dependent on food imports but had a very efficient agricultural sector. Meanwhile Germany was mostly self sufficient in food based on close to subsistence farming. Going into the war Britain was seen as vulnerable, yet it was Germany that starved, a major cause off its defeat.
I think it would be a mistake to position it as a question of resilience vs efficiency. I think it's generally more likely to be a consequence of Britain's record of chronic underinvestment.
If there's a lack of investment in new technology and new equipment, then facilities in Britain will obviously become relatively less efficient compared to those in other countries where there is more investment, producing more efficient facilities. if Britain had invested more over the last many decades, then it would enjoy greater efficiency and greater resilience.
The tradeoff is between immediate consumption, and investment to generate a return that allows for greater consumption later. Britain has made itself poorer, less efficient, more vulnerable to global shocks, and generally more miserable, by prioritising consumption today.
Even Britain's experience of austerity was in some respects a case of spend today and austerity tomorrow, certainly in comparison with some other European countries, and that's the current framework that the Treasury employs.
We're past the planning stage obviously, but it's reasonable in an unlikely but possible scenario of 20% of your oil suddenly disappearing to plan for dealing with certain effects of that rather event than preventing them. In other words we we might have to live without fizzy drinks for a while, and that's OK. The issue is that authorities aren't telling the public what is now likely to happen and why.
And agree resilience is created by investment.
One of the things we found out during the pandemic is that the government makes decisions on what they think is the optimal course of action based on assumptions about the public's response to those actions. You can understand why they would do this, though it feels a bit manipulative for a democracy, but is itself sub-optimal if those assumptions are erroneous.
In this case it seems very likely that the main reason the government isn't preparing the public for what is likely to happen is because they assume that the public response would end up making the situation worse, rather than better. For example, if the public is told that they might have to do without fizzy drinks for the summer the likely result is that all fizzy drinks will be rapidly cleared from the shelves today, and the government will be blamed for precipitating panic-buying. And then if the Strait of Hormuz is open tomorrow, and there isn't a shortage of fizzy drinks over the summer, they will be pilloried for crying wolf.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
Warning! My turnip store is securely under lock and key.
Westminster Magistrates' Court heard he wrote on Facebook, "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it", in April 2025.
Osborn, who was found guilty of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983, said his account was hacked.
District Judge Nina Tempia dismissed Osborn's claim that his account had been hacked and found him guilty of the charge.
NFR on his file - "Normal For Reform".
If the magistrate dismissed his claim that his account had been hacked - is that a basis for a perjury charge?
Piquant anecdote. Woke up in Ballycastle and got dressed ready for my itinerary and then I realised I needed a haircut. Postponed things to go for haircut. As I walked to the Turkish barber my belt broke and my jeans started falling down
I went for the haircut (holding up my jeans). Chatty barber. I told him my predicament. He called his friend and said “where can you buy a belt in Ballycastle”. He then got an answer and walked me to the nearby charity shop which had a big box of belts for £1 each and the nice Irish lady seemed pleased with an early start to trade. And my jeans stopped falling down
Everything good. A heartwarming tale of multicultural harmony except that as we parted the Turkish guy realised I live in london. And he said london has “too many foreigners now” and then, warming to his theme, he said “Dublin is even worse, much worse, where have all the Irish gone?”
Likely story... where'd you get that "my belt has broken line"? Harvey Weinstein?
Are you claiming I’m making this up?
Call Concern charity shop in Ballycastle and ask if a handsome Englishman came in this morning with an amusing Turkish guy, looking desperately for a belt
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Well if proximity to Mandelson didn't do it the credit of Dan Hodges surely will.
I'd be interested in what Hodges' case is that Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary. Maybe he has to whisper it because it's not obvious that it's true?
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
I just don’t see where the immediate pressure for Starmer comes from.
More than 1,000 Labour councillors pissed off at losing their positions with hundreds of backbenchers worried that they will follow suit at the next general election.
It's not hard to see that this would put Starmer under pressure over his own job.
There is no single military operation, no matter how large or sophisticated, that will compel the Islamic Republic to abandon the ideological foundations on which it is built.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Well if proximity to Mandelson didn't do it the credit of Dan Hodges surely will.
I'd be interested in what Hodges' case is that Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary. Maybe he has to whisper it because it's not obvious that it's true?
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
None of those metrics are relevant to his performance IMO. This stuff is baked in over decades and, ultimately, the only ones that count are things like healthy life expectancy.
Domestic politics seems so mundane at the moment. The country is crying out for a leader or anyone who points in a different direction. This was written two months ago and everything in it happened.....
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
It is very rare to be prosecuted for 22mph in a 20 zone, and with modern reporting rigour one suspects he had one such offence along with three or four at a higher threshold, rather than the story being as reported. The 10% plus 2 guidelines are a sensible approach we should maintain.
I'd agree with her that there are now more than enough 20mph areas already and we shouldn't typically be prosecuting for 22mph, but we don't, so it won't free up any new resources.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Well if proximity to Mandelson didn't do it the credit of Dan Hodges surely will.
I'd be interested in what Hodges' case is that Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary. Maybe he has to whisper it because it's not obvious that it's true?
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
I wouldn’t be looking at those metrics to assess Streeting. I’d look at how he’s handling the NHS England/DHSC merger or the introduction of generative AI in healthcare.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
How is petrol delivered?
In tankers. Which run on…
There seems to be developments to build hybrid-electric oil tanker ships*, and Volvo have an electric HGV with a 700km range now. Electrification is being pursued unevenly, so it seems that the laggards will see their fossil fuels delivered using electricity before too long.
* Although it seems that a ~40% reduction in CO2 emissions was achieved as far back as 2019 partly by capturing the VOCs given off by the cargo and burning those to generate electricity on board, and partly by using a battery for load-shaving. There's so much ingenuity about that it can be hard to keep up.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
As DavidL noted yesterday about Kemi Badenoch
‘I worry about her analytical abilities, frankly.’
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
They are a government surveilance system, and the covid lockdown was so the batteries could be changed. Hence the need for a new lockdown to change the batteries again.
It was 1987, Britain was reeling from dozens of IRA attacks in both Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher vowed to do whatever it would take to end the carnage.
As the violence continued unabated, Thatcher confided her concerns in US President Ronald Reagan during a secret meeting in Washington DC. Sensing the importance of this, the American leader divulged his own tactic for getting dirt on suspected communists, jihadi terrorists, anti-war protesters, and anyone else who were thought to threaten the US order. The answer, pigeons.
But not real pigeons. Biotechnology surveillance drones, harnessing the power of the pigeon, designed by the government to look, walk and squawk, just like real pigeons.
Hence the importance of tinfoil hats. It makes the wearer invisible to the surveillance pigeons as they can no longer detct the brainwaves.
Wow, every day is a learning day on PB. I thought those wearing tinfoil hats were just bonkers. Live and learn.
The irony is that those opting for tin-foil hats to defeat surveillance have brains that aren't waving above the detectable threshold anyway.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am.
That is a bit niche. I assumed she was going to use speed cameras to chase after shop lifters.
There is no single military operation, no matter how large or sophisticated, that will compel the Islamic Republic to abandon the ideological foundations on which it is built.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Well if proximity to Mandelson didn't do it the credit of Dan Hodges surely will.
I'd be interested in what Hodges' case is that Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary. Maybe he has to whisper it because it's not obvious that it's true?
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
I wouldn’t be looking at those metrics to assess Streeting. I’d look at how he’s handling the NHS England/DHSC merger or the introduction of generative AI in healthcare.
There are problems with whatever metric you use to measure performance, of course, but I would have thought the ones I looked at would form a set of necessary but not sufficient metrics for judging success or failure of a Health Secretary.
I think it would be bizarre to say that Streeting had been a success because you judged the use of AI by the NHS had been a success, while, say, performance on Emergency Admissions had markedly deteriorated.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
At some point compute will be cheap enough that repurposing them all for ubiquitous average speed check becomes viable.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am.
That is a bit niche. I assumed she was going to use speed cameras to chase after shop lifters.
You can use speed cameras to catch the people who vandalise speed cameras.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
I've a friend that does speed cameras, the processing is onboard the camera, it just reports the violations to the central db. Required bandwidth would be too great otherwise.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 55m Whisper it. But Wes Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary, and Labour MPs are starting to notice. Was a narrative that his proximity to Mandelson had killed his leadership chances. I'm not so sure.
Well if proximity to Mandelson didn't do it the credit of Dan Hodges surely will.
I'd be interested in what Hodges' case is that Streeting is doing a good job as Health Secretary. Maybe he has to whisper it because it's not obvious that it's true?
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
I wouldn’t be looking at those metrics to assess Streeting. I’d look at how he’s handling the NHS England/DHSC merger or the introduction of generative AI in healthcare.
There are problems with whatever metric you use to measure performance, of course, but I would have thought the ones I looked at would form a set of necessary but not sufficient metrics for judging success or failure of a Health Secretary.
I think it would be bizarre to say that Streeting had been a success because you judged the use of AI by the NHS had been a success, while, say, performance on Emergency Admissions had markedly deteriorated.
The metrics matter, but they are sensitive to many factors, not all of which are in the government’s control or under the Health Secretary’s control, and they often lag improvements. Thus, I suggest more upstream assessments: look at the things that Streeting is directly overseeing and see how they’re going.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
Yes and no. This very report says "...there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages...". We have become used, over the last few years, to not having the same availability of produce as before Brexit (for a number of reasons). This would be more of the same. Until the threat becomes petrol rationing (unlikely in the UK) or serious disruption to MRI's (lack of liquid helium is a major worry) then I think most people will shrug, grumble and KBO.
I think what is focussing minds is that is the reasonable worst case scenario, given Trump’s erratic behaviour the worst worse case scenario could happen.
Its good to be thinking about it and planning, but I take issue a bit with your intro. I don't think the disruption is going to be that significant (at least based on this story).
But for everyones' interests this needs resolving.
The other issue is that ordinary people don’t behave rationally.
Remember bog roll at the start of the pandemic?
That sort of irrational panic buying could cause problems.
Except people who stockpile ARE behaving rationally, just for their own benefit, not society. After all, if you rushed out and bought enough loo paper for a year on March 10th 2020, you didn't personally run out. Its a classic irregular verb situation. Same with petrol during the blockades under Blair.
Diesel is far more an issue for UK than petrol is my understanding.
There may be food but how is it to be delivered?
How is petrol delivered?
In tankers. Which run on…
There seems to be developments to build hybrid-electric oil tanker ships*, and Volvo have an electric HGV with a 700km range now. Electrification is being pursued unevenly, so it seems that the laggards will see their fossil fuels delivered using electricity before too long.
* Although it seems that a ~40% reduction in CO2 emissions was achieved as far back as 2019 partly by capturing the VOCs given off by the cargo and burning those to generate electricity on board, and partly by using a battery for load-shaving. There's so much ingenuity about that it can be hard to keep up.
Electric semis have been held up by all the batteries going into smaller vehicles and the need to roll out huge charging infrastructure updates. Because they need the equivalent of about 4-6 superchargers per truck.
Range is a bit of an issue - but in the U.K., the suze of the island and the length of average journey is quite low, which helps.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
I've a friend that does speed cameras, the processing is onboard the camera, it just reports the violations to the central db. Required bandwidth would be too great otherwise.
Also call BS on this, there is no speedcamera enforcement in the 20mph zones in my area. Only the odd happy/unhappy advisory sign.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
I thought it was already 10% + 2mph in most places.
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
I've a friend that does speed cameras, the processing is onboard the camera, it just reports the violations to the central db. Required bandwidth would be too great otherwise.
Also call BS on this, there is no speedcamera enforcement in the 20mph zones in my area. Only the odd happy/unhappy advisory sign.
There is in Wales. You will be done in a 20 on 24 mph and above. 35 in a 30.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
In normal times.
Industrial CO2 is typically sourced where it is already separated from a gas stream as part of the process. So biomass upgrading, bioethanol, fertiliser production etc. The incremental cost of cleaning it up is relatively modest compared to the cost of a new CO2 capture plant on the back of a cement works, so has market advantage.
In future, when CO2 capture plants are operating to reduce emissions, a side stream of the captured CO2 could also be polished for Industrial use at low incremental cost.
Thanks- makes sense. Though isn't the implication of our Gulf-dependence that even that process struggles to make sense in the UK in pure business terms?
One of the lessons I took from the pandemic was that we've traded too much resilience for efficiency. Is this another example?
Not disagreeing with your point but trading-off efficiency creates its own resilience issues. A well known example is the First World War where Britain was highly dependent on food imports but had a very efficient agricultural sector. Meanwhile Germany was mostly self sufficient in food based on close to subsistence farming. Going into the war Britain was seen as vulnerable, yet it was Germany that starved, a major cause off its defeat.
I think it would be a mistake to position it as a question of resilience vs efficiency. I think it's generally more likely to be a consequence of Britain's record of chronic underinvestment.
If there's a lack of investment in new technology and new equipment, then facilities in Britain will obviously become relatively less efficient compared to those in other countries where there is more investment, producing more efficient facilities. if Britain had invested more over the last many decades, then it would enjoy greater efficiency and greater resilience.
The tradeoff is between immediate consumption, and investment to generate a return that allows for greater consumption later. Britain has made itself poorer, less efficient, more vulnerable to global shocks, and generally more miserable, by prioritising consumption today.
Even Britain's experience of austerity was in some respects a case of spend today and austerity tomorrow, certainly in comparison with some other European countries, and that's the current framework that the Treasury employs.
We're past the planning stage obviously, but it's reasonable in an unlikely but possible scenario of 20% of your oil suddenly disappearing to plan for dealing with certain effects of that rather event than preventing them. In other words we we might have to live without fizzy drinks for a while, and that's OK. The issue is that authorities aren't telling the public what is now likely to happen and why.
And agree resilience is created by investment.
The disappearance of the gas from the Gulf would be of more consequence.
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
ABC doesn't work with that scenario.
It's not all about the Starmerwave. All the Eastern Europeans went home.
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
The UK population in 2010 was a bit more than 62 million, and is now nearly 70 million, so it's up by a bit less than one-eighth. In the same time, the number of NHS nurses is up by 30% and doctors by 55%.
Unless immigrants to Britain were exclusively those suffering from congestive heart failure or other serious maladies, it's very unlikely to be a major factor behind the problems with the NHS.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
I've a friend that does speed cameras, the processing is onboard the camera, it just reports the violations to the central db. Required bandwidth would be too great otherwise.
Also call BS on this, there is no speedcamera enforcement in the 20mph zones in my area. Only the odd happy/unhappy advisory sign.
There is in Wales. You will be done in a 20 on 24 mph and above. 35 in a 30.
Same round here, although I think perhaps the cameras were already there before the limit was dropped to 20 mph.
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
The UK population in 2010 was a bit more than 62 million, and is now nearly 70 million, so it's up by a bit less than one-eighth. In the same time, the number of NHS nurses is up by 30% and doctors by 55%.
Unless immigrants to Britain were exclusively those suffering from congestive heart failure or other serious maladies, it's very unlikely to be a major factor behind the problems with the NHS.
How do the worked hour rates compare between 2010 and 2026?
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
The UK population in 2010 was a bit more than 62 million, and is now nearly 70 million, so it's up by a bit less than one-eighth. In the same time, the number of NHS nurses is up by 30% and doctors by 55%.
Unless immigrants to Britain were exclusively those suffering from congestive heart failure or other serious maladies, it's very unlikely to be a major factor behind the problems with the NHS.
Did we build the hospitals to care for the sudden 8 million people? The hospices? Dental centres? GP surgeries? Sewage plants? General infrastructure? No. Of course we didn’t
To make it worse many perhaps most of these migrants went to the poorer areas of the country. Already relatively deprived
Then add in asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. It’s a catastrophe
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
In normal times.
Industrial CO2 is typically sourced where it is already separated from a gas stream as part of the process. So biomass upgrading, bioethanol, fertiliser production etc. The incremental cost of cleaning it up is relatively modest compared to the cost of a new CO2 capture plant on the back of a cement works, so has market advantage.
In future, when CO2 capture plants are operating to reduce emissions, a side stream of the captured CO2 could also be polished for Industrial use at low incremental cost.
Thanks- makes sense. Though isn't the implication of our Gulf-dependence that even that process struggles to make sense in the UK in pure business terms?
One of the lessons I took from the pandemic was that we've traded too much resilience for efficiency. Is this another example?
Not disagreeing with your point but trading-off efficiency creates its own resilience issues. A well known example is the First World War where Britain was highly dependent on food imports but had a very efficient agricultural sector. Meanwhile Germany was mostly self sufficient in food based on close to subsistence farming. Going into the war Britain was seen as vulnerable, yet it was Germany that starved, a major cause off its defeat.
I think it would be a mistake to position it as a question of resilience vs efficiency. I think it's generally more likely to be a consequence of Britain's record of chronic underinvestment.
If there's a lack of investment in new technology and new equipment, then facilities in Britain will obviously become relatively less efficient compared to those in other countries where there is more investment, producing more efficient facilities. if Britain had invested more over the last many decades, then it would enjoy greater efficiency and greater resilience.
The tradeoff is between immediate consumption, and investment to generate a return that allows for greater consumption later. Britain has made itself poorer, less efficient, more vulnerable to global shocks, and generally more miserable, by prioritising consumption today.
Even Britain's experience of austerity was in some respects a case of spend today and austerity tomorrow, certainly in comparison with some other European countries, and that's the current framework that the Treasury employs.
It's still plenty early in the year to plant some veggies.
I'm never sure about this "British farming self-sufficiency / productivity" thing.
The Dutch have a similar climate, about 1/4 or 1/3 as much agricultural land as us per person, yet manage to be one of the most significant food exporting countries in the world.
I think it is about investment, with a nod to planning, and economic culture.
We’d be easily self-sufficient at a push. Vast swathes of the country are given over to growing feedstock for animals, plus all the land for cows (sheep are more marginal) - this is a luxury, often for export. We are already self-sufficient for grains.
But yet again we are confusing security for autarky. Do we really need to be entirely self-sufficient? That’s not been the case for hundreds of years.
I think there are two problems. One is that globalisation has led to a concentration of global supply chains, so there are lots of single points of failure. Relying on imports for certain goods can be made more resilient by having a diverse global supply chain, so that if one supplier falls by the wayside, there's somewhere else to go to.
The other problem is a bit more fundamental - Britain imports too much and borrows to pay for those imports. Sure, autarky isn't the answer, but Britain does have to work out how to make and export more, simply to pay for continuing imports.
We need to have the media start reporting on the trade deficit again.
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
You could use speed cameras to flag for plate cloning. It's not possible to be in Aberdeen at 8am and Helston at 9am. Though there would be privacy implications...
Aberdeen to Helston in an hour? I'm sure our resident travel expert, Dura Ace, would have a go.
I've a friend that does speed cameras, the processing is onboard the camera, it just reports the violations to the central db. Required bandwidth would be too great otherwise.
Also call BS on this, there is no speedcamera enforcement in the 20mph zones in my area. Only the odd happy/unhappy advisory sign.
There is in Wales. You will be done in a 20 on 24 mph and above. 35 in a 30.
Same round here, although I think perhaps the cameras were already there before the limit was dropped to 20 mph.
Plenty of cameras in London snapping away at cars exceeding the near universal limit of 20mph.
Coincidentally I am due to attend tonight a local working committee meeting to discuss the introduction of a 20mph limit in my town - WInchcombe (pop about 8,000). People are generally in favour of it but there are one or two practical issues, and of course a few diehards.
Domestic politics seems so mundane at the moment. The country is crying out for a leader or anyone who points in a different direction. This was written two months ago and everything in it happened.....
You want a leader? Someone women want and men want to be? The ultimate gentleman spy? Irresistible to women, deadly to his enemies, a legend in his own time?
Why did waiting lists get so bad under the Tories?
ABC
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Because the fecking Tories literally immigrated about 3 million mainly unskilled people in 3 years. That puts a bit of pressure on free welfare services. Added to the many millions of migrants that came since Blair
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
The UK population in 2010 was a bit more than 62 million, and is now nearly 70 million, so it's up by a bit less than one-eighth. In the same time, the number of NHS nurses is up by 30% and doctors by 55%.
Unless immigrants to Britain were exclusively those suffering from congestive heart failure or other serious maladies, it's very unlikely to be a major factor behind the problems with the NHS.
Did we build the hospitals to care for the sudden 8 million people? The hospices? Dental centres? GP surgeries? Sewage plants? General infrastructure? No. Of course we didn’t
To make it worse many perhaps most of these migrants went to the poorer areas of the country. Already relatively deprived
Then add in asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. It’s a catastrophe
Like I've being saying most Brits ain't got a scooby about the disruption coming.
Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Secret government analysis sets out ‘worst-case scenario’ whereby a lack of critical carbon dioxide supplies would hit farming and the hospitality sector
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry.
Senior officials — including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence — have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution.
Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Concerns were raised about the shortages coinciding with the Fifa World Cup, which begins on June 11.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops. Officials discussed unease that the impact would be highly visible and risk undermining wider government campaigns stressing security of supplies in other areas.
Officials plan to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear disruption, believing that a collapse in CO2 supplies could cause a risk to life through a lack of dry ice to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as to Britain’s national electricity supply.
If only we'd cracked on with CCS years ago, we'd have an abundance of CO2.
Presumably in normal times, it's not worth it. If carbon dioxide were really that valuable, free enterprise would be capturing it from power stations and cement works for profit.
In normal times, it's a cheap (consider the price of off-brand fizzy drinks) chemical, and Britain doesn't want to do low-value stuff like that.
In normal times.
Which is why government needs to fund it
Fair point, but that requires voters to vote for governments that prioritise that sort of thing over tax cuts and pension rises.
For decades, Germany blocked every attempt to build European defense without America. Merz reversed course after concluding Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine.
No 10 is *not disputing* extraordinary claim in @spectator that Rachel Reeves is blocking defence funding because of the MoD’s poor record on ‘gender parity’ issues. Asked twice, the PM’s spokesman declines to comment on ‘speculation’…
For decades, Germany blocked every attempt to build European defense without America. Merz reversed course after concluding Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine.
...Trump: "It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland. We want Greenland. They don't want to give it to us and I said, OK, bye bye."
Sikorski, Poland's vice-premier, posted the video with one word: "Noted."..
But we have so far to go. This is the report from the Ukrainian command yesterday:
"According to updated information, a total of 104 combat engagements have taken place since the start of this day. Today, the enemy launched one missile strike using two missiles, carried out 51 airstrikes, and dropped 186 guided bombs. Additionally, they deployed 6,213 kamikaze drones and fired 2,737 rounds at populated areas and our troops’ positions."
So 1 not particularly remarkable day. 6,213 kamikaze drones used, 2737 rounds used, 186 guided bombs. This is what is needed to fight a modern war. Obviously we don't yet have the drones but how many days would our forces be able to stay in the field? Very, very few I fear.
Domestic politics seems so mundane at the moment. The country is crying out for a leader or anyone who points in a different direction. This was written two months ago and everything in it happened.....
You want a leader? Someone women want and men want to be? The ultimate gentleman spy? Irresistible to women, deadly to his enemies, a legend in his own time?
Domestic politics seems so mundane at the moment. The country is crying out for a leader or anyone who points in a different direction. This was written two months ago and everything in it happened.....
You want a leader? Someone women want and men want to be? The ultimate gentleman spy? Irresistible to women, deadly to his enemies, a legend in his own time?
Umesh Kumar, who has been disqualified from running for election in Hounslow after adopting the novel strategy of trying to stand for Reform UK in Heston West ward and the Liberal Democrats in the neighbouring Heston East ward.
Personally, I don't think that should disqualify you, but what do I know?
For decades, Germany blocked every attempt to build European defense without America. Merz reversed course after concluding Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine.
The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel left.
And is it zero supply after that or constrained supply ?
It'll be constrained. But I shouldn't imagine Jet 2 to Málaga will be a priority.
I dunno. I’d suspect the major package holiday routes would be prioritised for the supply where the carriers can get it. Whether there might be consolidation/fewer flights a day and offers to rebook/defer is another question but I doubt they’ll want to forego those entirely.
The unprofitable routes to regional/more niche destinations are surely the ones that will be targeted before that.
And long haul, particularly to Asia, might be another question.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgee5krdpxo
Westminster Magistrates' Court heard he wrote on Facebook, "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it", in April 2025.
Osborn, who was found guilty of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983, said his account was hacked.
District Judge Nina Tempia dismissed Osborn's claim that his account had been hacked and found him guilty of the charge.
If everyone had gone into the pandemic with an extra pack of loo roll already stored up, then they would have been less fazed by a temporary absence of loo roll from the shelves, as they'd have the reserve to even out any variations in supply. This is the reason why European governments have started advising people to keep ~2 weeks of food (and various other essentials) in stock at home, so that resilience exists before a crisis hits.
The main value of rationality is justification, particularly to yourself.
And agree resilience is created by investment.
Call Concern charity shop in Ballycastle and ask if a handsome Englishman came in this morning with an amusing Turkish guy, looking desperately for a belt
https://www.facebook.com/share/1GwvyojS8M/?mibextid=wwXIfr
In this case it seems very likely that the main reason the government isn't preparing the public for what is likely to happen is because they assume that the public response would end up making the situation worse, rather than better. For example, if the public is told that they might have to do without fizzy drinks for the summer the likely result is that all fizzy drinks will be rapidly cleared from the shelves today, and the government will be blamed for precipitating panic-buying. And then if the Strait of Hormuz is open tomorrow, and there isn't a shortage of fizzy drinks over the summer, they will be pilloried for crying wolf.
If the magistrate dismissed his claim that his account had been hacked - is that a basis for a perjury charge?
It does look a bit suspicious
Just been to meet the farmers here including the beautiful farmer’s wife, with her cut glass English accent despite coming from Wicklow
https://broughgammon.com/
I recommend their homemade Turkish chorizo and spicy Antrim piccalilli. It is all most cheering .
The House of Commons publishes key NHS stastistics and my summary of them would be:
Waiting Lists - The gentle rate of decline that started after these peaked at 7.7 million in September 2023 has continued. (neutral)
A&E waiting times - The strong seasonal cycle, with waiting times peaking in winter, makes it harder to identify any change since Labour took office, but at the moment it looks like there's been no improvement. (failure)
Emergency Admissions - Even though this has a stronger seasonal cycle than the previous statistic, it looks as though performance has deteriorated on this metric since Labour took over. (big failure)
Cancer waiting times - It looks like there was an improvement on this measure in 2024, which has since levelled out. (neutral)
Ambulance waiting times - I think there's been a slight improvement in performance in 2025 relative to previous years. (success)
Perhaps there's some measure of NHS performance that Hodges is looking at that is more favourable, or that indicates these measures will shortly all be much improved, but I suspect that he didn't look at them, and his statement is based on vibes and anecdote.
It's not hard to see that this would put Starmer under pressure over his own job.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2044655763310649630
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYsGRU_jaJA
"No stop signs, speed limits, ain't no one gonna slow me down..."
https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/motorists-speeding-kemi-badenoch-20mph-rules
And she is tacitly making the practical assumption in the article that speed cameras should be redeployed to catch criminals. This is what we want, although I haven't worked out how speed cameras can catch shoplifters, but I am working on it.
In tankers. Which run on…
The statistic you are using tells me everything I need to know btw
2010 reasonable
2024 beyond hideously awful..
I'd agree with her that there are now more than enough 20mph areas already and we shouldn't typically be prosecuting for 22mph, but we don't, so it won't free up any new resources.
I was being impish. Even Nick Ferrari on LBC congratulated Streeting. Not a mention on PB.
* Although it seems that a ~40% reduction in CO2 emissions was achieved as far back as 2019 partly by capturing the VOCs given off by the cargo and burning those to generate electricity on board, and partly by using a battery for load-shaving. There's so much ingenuity about that it can be hard to keep up.
‘I worry about her analytical abilities, frankly.’
I think it would be bizarre to say that Streeting had been a success because you judged the use of AI by the NHS had been a success, while, say, performance on Emergency Admissions had markedly deteriorated.
Austerity, Brexit and COVID
Range is a bit of an issue - but in the U.K., the suze of the island and the length of average journey is quite low, which helps.
If we don’t reverse the Boriswave (at least) we will go bankrupt. Or we abandon our welfare state as we know it. Them’s the choices. It’s as stark as that
It's not all about the Starmerwave. All the Eastern Europeans went home.
Unless immigrants to Britain were exclusively those suffering from congestive heart failure or other serious maladies, it's very unlikely to be a major factor behind the problems with the NHS.
I’m alone on Torr Head. The closest the Irish mainland gets to Great Britain
That’s Islay across the waters
To make it worse many perhaps most of these migrants went to the poorer areas of the country. Already relatively deprived
Then add in asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. It’s a catastrophe
Coincidentally I am due to attend tonight a local working committee meeting to discuss the introduction of a 20mph limit in my town - WInchcombe (pop about 8,000). People are generally in favour of it but there are one or two practical issues, and of course a few diehards.
Austin Powers is standing for Greenwich Council.
https://www.londoncentric.media/p/parkun-london-nike-advertising
We don't, and we haven't got ages.
Germany leads a coalition planning to run NATO without the US. The project has a name: "European NATO" — WSJ.
https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/2044509467132236132
About time.
...Trump: "It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland. We want Greenland. They don't want to give it to us and I said, OK, bye bye."
Sikorski, Poland's vice-premier, posted the video with one word: "Noted."..
Or one of them.
But I shouldn't imagine Jet 2 to Málaga will be a priority.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-eu-finalise-agreement-to-bring-uk-into-erasmus-in-2027
Now we just have to see whether they cancel Turing out of spite.
Shame. It was a decent price.
But Is expect it to be constrained for quite a while, even when this war ends which does not look likely soon.
No 10 is *not disputing* extraordinary claim in @spectator that Rachel Reeves is blocking defence funding because of the MoD’s poor record on ‘gender parity’ issues. Asked twice, the PM’s spokesman declines to comment on ‘speculation’…
‘ Only in the UK. A victim looks on aghast while the terrorist he was kidnapped for stands for election.🤬’
https://x.com/davekent101/status/2044088250604662787?s=61
Getting back….l
JD Vance.
I am in fact staring across the North Channel to Cnoc Moy, Sanda Island and the Mull of Kintyre
The north Antrim coast is totally majestic, especially in this sharp spring sun. Lambs and warblers and endless wildflowers
"According to updated information, a total of 104 combat engagements have taken place since the start of this day.
Today, the enemy launched one missile strike using two missiles, carried out 51 airstrikes, and dropped 186 guided bombs. Additionally, they deployed 6,213 kamikaze drones and fired 2,737 rounds at populated areas and our troops’ positions."
So 1 not particularly remarkable day. 6,213 kamikaze drones used, 2737 rounds used, 186 guided bombs. This is what is needed to fight a modern war. Obviously we don't yet have the drones but how many days would our forces be able to stay in the field? Very, very few I fear.
His issue appears to be that Donald Trump isn't Pope.
Umesh Kumar, who has been disqualified from running for election in Hounslow after adopting the novel strategy of trying to stand for Reform UK in Heston West ward and the Liberal Democrats in the neighbouring Heston East ward.
Personally, I don't think that should disqualify you, but what do I know?
The unprofitable routes to regional/more niche destinations are surely the ones that will be targeted before that.
And long haul, particularly to Asia, might be another question.