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All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,618
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/2043371534060785934

    New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

    A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.

    “The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.

    "We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”

    Er - does that mean we're going to take on the US Navy?
    I missed this.

    Has Trump said something else?
    He's going to block our gas shipments until Iran surrenders.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352
    Green Party about to get some new members...


    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ·
    40m
    ‼️BREAKING | Your Party expels the Left🥀

    Your Party's exec has just voted to purge the socialist left from YP. Members of other left-wing socialist parties and internal left-wing factions will be summarily expelled immediately, with no right to appeal.

    (Via
    @thisisyourparty
    )

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2043373693250797768
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    I loved lockdown, because I live in a big house with a massive garden which I regularly worked from, I had fast broadband, I was saving loads of money by not commuting, the lease on my car ended in May 2020, which also gave me another massive saving, but more importantly it kept my family safe which was the most important thing for me.

    However I found it stressful because I couldn't see my colleagues or my other half for over a year.

    I found it utterly difficult from the winter of 2020, and I had my second jab in February 2021 and was desperate for the nightmare to end.
    I hated lockdown, even though I was still able to occasionally have some in person works stuff.

    I like to be by myself, but around other people.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,242

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.


    Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
    @citrinowicz

    The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes.

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043319416939528668


    Brace.
    Did he actually say 'brace'? There is someone on PB that often uses that phrase. Have they been seen in the same room together? I think not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    I read it as 'Oman' and was very confused.
    I read it as Onan and was ok with it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    First numbers from Hungary will be arriving in about 15; minutes...
  • Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,229
    MattW said:

    Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset

    Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest


    Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.

    In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.

    After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.

    A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/12/britain-single-market-rules-uk-eu-reset

    Hmmm. "Dynamic alignment" was not explicitly in the Labour Manifesto, but there were a lot of ideas.
    I don't think anything described is unexpected, given the wish for a phytosanitary agreement. A lot of framing e.g "since the Iran war" but I bet this was all in civil service documents a year ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,618

    Nigelb said:

    Ben Delo isn't aware of the Streisand effect is he?

    Significant.

    Lawyers for Reform UK donor Ben Delo say that referring to his criminal conviction is a breach of privacy law, with no "public interest".

    If highlighting the criminal records of those bankrolling UK political parties is not in the public interest, what is?


    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/2042881360927363074

    Yes, I posted that yesterday.
    Is there a right for convicted criminals who get involved in politics to pretend that they're not ?
    There are some convictions that need to be disclosed even after they are spent if you are applying for certain jobs.
    Was this one of those ?
    And you can't expunge the record of a pardon, can you ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352
    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,149
    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,618

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    Fetterman doesn't sound great, either.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2043131438091112681
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,149
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Was there an exit poll from Hungary?

    It does not appear so.
    Thanks rcs1000.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    I loved lockdown, because I live in a big house with a massive garden which I regularly worked from, I had fast broadband, I was saving loads of money by not commuting, the lease on my car ended in May 2020, which also gave me another massive saving, but more importantly it kept my family safe which was the most important thing for me.

    However I found it stressful because I couldn't see my colleagues or my other half for over a year.

    I found it utterly difficult from the winter of 2020, and I had my second jab in February 2021 and was desperate for the nightmare to end.
    Yes, but fuel shortages and rationing are very different to lockdown. Not least, I would expect public transport to get priority.

    For me the covid lockdown meant a speedy commute as I worked face to face throughout.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,493

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    I read it as 'Oman' and was very confused.
    I read it as Onan and was ok with it.
    "Oh Mann !!!" is what Germans who just faceplanted say.
  • Be great news if Orban gets defeated tonight.

    If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320

    Be great news if Orban gets defeated tonight.

    If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.

    Yes this really is their last chance to save their democracy .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    Its all going a bit Downfall.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    We do not have to choose a side. Indeed it is likely to be counterproductive if we do. Trump doesn't do gratitude.
    Indeed: it's remarkably self defeating in the medium term.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    I read it as 'Oman' and was very confused.
    I read it as Onan, and knew exactly whom that referred to.
    He was good at pulling out.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    It sucked- espscially Lockdowns 2 and 3. (And I say that as someone who quite liked bits of the WFH thing and reconfigured bits of my return to teaching to keep some days like that.)

    I'm still hoping that 2020-1 are the worst thing I have to live through. With decreasing confidence, but still hoping.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,058
    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    That's a false dichotomy. We don't have to choose.
    In fact, we've chosen not to choose between the USA or Iran but to do what is in Britain's best interests.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    Bad news I'm afraid. As the Covid public inquiry seemed to be run by Bourbons we are v likely to lockdown next time earlier and harder and longer.

    I, for one, are very angry about this.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    We do not have to choose a side. Indeed it is likely to be counterproductive if we do. Trump doesn't do gratitude.
    Trump does do gratitude but his gratitude has a half life of about 1 hour
  • The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    Put up or shut up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,118

    Sell you shares kids.



    Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
    @citrinowicz

    In short, the maximum the Iranian regime is willing to offer does not come close to the minimum the U.S. administration is demanding.

    As long as both sides believe they hold the upper hand, and therefore see no need to compromise, the prospects for escalation will outweigh the chances for de-escalation. From the Iranian perspective in particular, there is little indication of a willingness to bend.

    Under these conditions, the path forward is far more likely to lead to confrontation than to agreement.

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043368403587481910

    There’s no disclaimer that this doesn’t constitute financial advice 🤔
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    I was living in a nice house with a beautiful garden, with my partner and our new baby boy. It felt lovely, and I work from home anyway

    Now I live on my own in the area she wanted to move to but I didn’t, and have genuinely been quite anxious about the prospect of another lockdown.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    Put up or shut up.
    Trump shutting up would be good. Anyone got a problem with Trump shutting up?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,560
    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    But no one is forcing a choice upon us.
    It's like United v LFC.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,128
    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    If we are completely insane
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,118

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
  • Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Go Hungary. You can do this. Tell Vance where to do one.
    More importantly Putin.

    Syria, Venezuela, Moldova, Romania, now hopefully Hungary ...

    He remains a master strategist.
    Soon hopefully Iran too ...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    If he had any sense (hmmm) he'd be pointing out that Russia and China are supporting Iran and if people object to what he's doing you are playing into those countries' hands.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
    Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.

    And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,058
    edited April 12

    Be great news if Orban gets defeated tonight.

    If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.

    He needs to be comprehensively defeated.

    Hungary’s National Assembly has 199 seats, so 100 seats are needed for a simple majority and for a party’s leader to become prime minister. That would be a defeat for Orban.

    But 133 seats, a two-thirds majority, which allows constitutional reform, is the comprehensive defeat that is really needed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    If he had any sense (hmmm) he'd be pointing out that Russia and China are supporting Iran and if people object to what he's doing you are playing into those countries' hands.
    Unfortunately, Trump seems to want to simultaneously support Russia and oppose Iran.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 916

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    If he had any sense (hmmm) he'd be pointing out that Russia and China are supporting Iran and if people object to what he's doing you are playing into those countries' hands.
    Which causes him painful cognitive dissonance because he loves Vlad so much and is quite fond of Xi as well.
  • isam said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    I was living in a nice house with a beautiful garden, with my partner and our new baby boy. It felt lovely, and I work from home anyway

    Now I live on my own in the area she wanted to move to but I didn’t, and have genuinely been quite anxious about the prospect of another lockdown.
    I’ve just realised I’ve spent six days by the Med in sunny Turkey, in a sequence of five star hotels, all with superb spas and gyms, and excellent food. And I’ve been shown some of the greatest classical sites in the world and some epic epic landscapes, and I ate stewed goat and it was amazing, and I’ve drunk loads of fine Turkish wine, drank 48 cups of black tulip tea (slightly sweetened), I’ve met a bunch of lovely people, and I have not spent a single penny (literally never reached in my pocket) and indeed I will be paid for this in time

    I like my life this way. It’s nice. Please please end this fucking war. Thankyou
  • Barnesian said:

    Be great news if Orban gets defeated tonight.

    If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.

    He needs to be comprehensively defeated.

    Hungary’s National Assembly has 199 seats, so 100 seats are needed for a simple majority and for a party’s leader to become prime minister. That would be a defeat for Orban.

    But 133 seats, a two-thirds majority, which allows constitutional reform, is the comprehensive defeat that is really needed.
    133 seats would be ideal and hopefully they clear that significantly, but I would take 100 or 101 so long as Orban goes.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited April 12
    I genuinely think I could swing this. If I reach out to Trump with heartfelt sincerity and tell him he is literally jeopardising my free seven day six star helicopter safari over the Luangwa National Park with optional gourmet weekend in Cape Town, he may see sense. And take pity

    And end the war

    I need to do it. Someone needs to make him FEEL the pain this war is causing
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,355

    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Go Hungary. You can do this. Tell Vance where to do one.
    More importantly Putin.

    Syria, Venezuela, Moldova, Romania, now hopefully Hungary ...

    He remains a master strategist.
    Soon hopefully Iran too ...
    I would like to think so, but I fear that's wishful thinking. Iran looks secure for the current regime for now, and rather more so than a couple of months ago. Trump and Netanyahu have been the regime's best friends.

    However of course it's incredibly difficult to work out what's going on inside a totalitarian dictatorship. I could be wrong and I hope I am.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,053
    rcs1000 said:

    First numbers from Hungary will be arriving in about 15; minutes...

    Afaik they're still giving extra time to allow people still queuing to vote before announcing any numbers. (From a Hungarian friend)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,922

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    When Donald Trump said that America would be the hottest country in the world I hadn't thought that he meant due to Chinese ICBMs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    edited April 12
    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,379
    Leon said:

    I genuinely think I could swing this. If I reach out to Trump with heartfelt sincerity and tell him he is literally jeopardising my free seven day six star helicopter safari over the Luangwa National Park with optional gourmet weekend in Cape Town, he may see sense. And take pity

    And end the war

    I need to do it. Someone needs to make him FEEL the pain this war is causing

    Careful. He might say "That's terrible. Sounds too good to miss. Okay, I'm ending the war.

    And coming with you too,"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,379
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First numbers from Hungary will be arriving in about 15; minutes...

    Afaik they're still giving extra time to allow people still queuing to vote before announcing any numbers. (From a Hungarian friend)
    When voting gets to 107%, do we assume it is actually extra ballot-stuffing time they need to overcome the turnout?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    Leon said:

    I genuinely think I could swing this. If I reach out to Trump with heartfelt sincerity and tell him he is literally jeopardising my free seven day six star helicopter safari over the Luangwa National Park with optional gourmet weekend in Cape Town, he may see sense. And take pity

    And end the war

    I need to do it. Someone needs to make him FEEL the pain this war is causing

    It's a poor show when the Face Eating Leopards party won't let a man go and get his face eaten by a literal leopard.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
  • rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    Is that saying only 2.86% counted? So hopefully its just a Fidesz stronghold that has reported.

    Whom would MH ally with in a Hung Parliament?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576

    Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset

    Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest


    Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.

    In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.

    After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.

    A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/12/britain-single-market-rules-uk-eu-reset

    Sounds about par for this lot.

    Without full parliamentary scrutiny each time


    They need a slogan for that: Give Up Control.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    That shows Tizla ahead on 110 seats.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,560
    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    No they don't.
    I read that as Tisza 110, Fidesz 79, MH 11.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576
    MattW said:

    Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset

    Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest


    Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.

    In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.

    After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.

    A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/12/britain-single-market-rules-uk-eu-reset

    Hmmm. "Dynamic alignment" was not explicitly in the Labour Manifesto, but there were a lot of ideas.
    I think this administration take their Manifesto about as seriously as Xi takes the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,355
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Go Hungary. You can do this. Tell Vance where to do one.
    More importantly Putin.

    Syria, Venezuela, Moldova, Romania, now hopefully Hungary ...

    He remains a master strategist.
    Incidentally it just occurred to me what a cherishable irony it is that Russia has suffered defeat after defeat since Trump's re-election, despite Trump being the most pro-Russian President ever, and conceivably a Russian agent.

    A combination, I think of Putin trying to be too clever by half and grossly overestimating his resources, the rest of the West finally seeing him for what he is, and Trump simply being too stupid and incompetent to know what is expected of him.
  • How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,560
    edited April 12
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    Oh I see. It's updating constantly.
    Thanks for the link.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,493
    edited April 12
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    I was living in a nice house with a beautiful garden, with my partner and our new baby boy. It felt lovely, and I work from home anyway

    Now I live on my own in the area she wanted to move to but I didn’t, and have genuinely been quite anxious about the prospect of another lockdown.
    I hope that improves for you; I've had a fairly nasty several years, too.

    I intend mine to turn this year - we shall see.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,030
    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Israel is already weaning itself off American aid. Bibi said this months ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,379

    Barnesian said:

    Be great news if Orban gets defeated tonight.

    If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.

    He needs to be comprehensively defeated.

    Hungary’s National Assembly has 199 seats, so 100 seats are needed for a simple majority and for a party’s leader to become prime minister. That would be a defeat for Orban.

    But 133 seats, a two-thirds majority, which allows constitutional reform, is the comprehensive defeat that is really needed.
    133 seats would be ideal and hopefully they clear that significantly, but I would take 100 or 101 so long as Orban goes.
    Hungary being Hungary, if it gets that close, somebody would be bought to defect.

    Russia will have the kompromat on a bunch of options.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576

    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Israel is already weaning itself off American aid. Bibi said this months ago.
    I'm not sure the Millwall strategy for Israel is the optimum one.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878
    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Easy. He'll not win. And on the back of it he'll do something like launch a Trump party.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    That's 110 Tisza, 71 Fidesz, 9 MH
  • Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Israel is already weaning itself off American aid. Bibi said this months ago.
    I’ll believe that if and when it happens. Israel is a resourceful country - amazingly so given its size. But without vast American aid both financial and military it would struggle. Greatly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
    Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.

    And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
    An excellent result for Kemi surely? If centre right Magyar can beat Orban then maybe she can beat Farage!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.

    Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
    We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
    Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
    Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.

    In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).

    For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
    I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
    Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone

    Fucking hell, never again

    I was living in a nice house with a beautiful garden, with my partner and our new baby boy. It felt lovely, and I work from home anyway

    Now I live on my own in the area she wanted to move to but I didn’t, and have genuinely been quite anxious about the prospect of another lockdown.
    Bit of a downer there @isam.

    I hope that you can come to an amicable relationship for the lad.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,763
    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    With apologies to Churchill:

    "If Trump invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable comment about the Devil in the House of Commons."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,149
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    Is this now bad for Orban?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,837
    There are many reasons for Orban's downfall, but the biggest is his refusal to take Ozempic.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    Is this now bad for Orban?
    Yes.

    But it's still very early days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    Is this now bad for Orban?
    Yes, but it is a projection from 2.86% of the vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    Is this now bad for Orban?
    Yes, but it is a projection from 2.86% of the vote.
    We're up to 6.6% of the vote in now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    The rising panic in his voice is palable.

    And there's slurring.


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043334522205253716

    If he had any sense (hmmm) he'd be pointing out that Russia and China are supporting Iran and if people object to what he's doing you are playing into those countries' hands.
    Given how he likes to accomodate Russia's demands in Ukraine that is a harder sell for him to make.
  • There are many reasons for Orban's downfall, but the biggest is his refusal to take Ozempic.

    That got a proper lol. So thanks
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,149
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos

    First numbers coming in, and they look good for Fidaz, unfortunately.

    They show MH making the 5% threshold, and Fidaz ahead

    More numbers in, and Tisza is now showing as about 109-110 seats.
    As currently stands, Tisza is on track to win 71 constituency seats.
    With 6.6% in, it's currently looking like 110-71-9, with nothing in from 9 constituencies.
    Is this now bad for Orban?
    Yes.

    But it's still very early days.
    I hope he loses, 16 years is long enough for any leader, and he also had 4 years previously from 1998 to 2002.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878
    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    (Commented above on the first)

    Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Easy. He'll not win. And on the back of it he'll do something like launch a Trump party.

    Just the MAGA movement, no need for a new party - 10-25% of the GOP are probabl with him forever, so he can continue to influence them.
  • And yes sympax for @isam

    So many relationships break up soon after a baby is born. It loads enormous pressure

    Courage, brother!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,518
    rcs1000 said:


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Three questions:

    1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?

    2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?

    3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043357926421680268

    The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
    Re: 1

    There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,011
    If Orban loses the election what are the chances he will try to cling to power through some illegal means?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
    Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.

    And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
    An excellent result for Kemi surely? If centre right Magyar can beat Orban then maybe she can beat Farage!
    I doubt it. Farage is the new leader of the right (albeit one who has been around for a long long time), not an old fart who has run his country for around 20 years total - in a democratic society even the best cannot keep that up forever, they lose their sharpness and how to manage party and the public.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878

    rcs1000 said:


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Three questions:

    1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?

    2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?

    3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043357926421680268

    The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
    Re: 1

    There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
    How on earth do you know this?
  • If Orban loses the election what are the chances he will try to cling to power through some illegal means?

    Near zero. He’s not a fascist

    He’s a right wing populist with unfortunate Putinist tendencies. eg I couldn’t see him doing anything as madly autocratic as abandoning jury trials, or secretly forcing his country into single market membership
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    US Masters looking like it might be a lot closer run thing than Hungarian elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    (Commented above on the first)

    Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
    Jerusalem is an amazing place. Even for those without religious belief the old city is a phenomenal site. I walked everywhere there and never felt unsafe in any neighbourhood.

    I am glad that I went when I did. There was peace then, albeit a fragile one.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,618
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If the choice is USA or Iran, we have to side with the USA every time.

    That's a false dichotomy. We don't have to choose.
    In fact, we've chosen not to choose between the USA or Iran but to do what is in Britain's best interests.
    Following one madman rather than the other is not "something we have to do" at all.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
    Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.

    And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
    An excellent result for Kemi surely? If centre right Magyar can beat Orban then maybe she can beat Farage!
    I doubt it. Farage is the new leader of the right (albeit one who has been around for a long long time), not an old fart who has run his country for around 20 years total - in a democratic society even the best cannot keep that up forever, they lose their sharpness and how to manage party and the public.
    I would contest the idea that Farage isn't an old fart...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,011
    Leon said:

    If Orban loses the election what are the chances he will try to cling to power through some illegal means?

    Near zero. He’s not a fascist

    He’s a right wing populist with unfortunate Putinist tendencies. eg I couldn’t see him doing anything as madly autocratic as abandoning jury trials, or secretly forcing his country into single market membership
    Haha was that a reference to the party you voted for in the last GE?

    Your vote seems to jinx everything: Brexit, Johnson, Starmer...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited April 12
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Polls are now closed in Hungary.

    Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
    Orban!
    BADENOCH

    JENRICK
    Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.

    And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
    An excellent result for Kemi surely? If centre right Magyar can beat Orban then maybe she can beat Farage!
    I doubt it. Farage is the new leader of the right (albeit one who has been around for a long long time), not an old fart who has run his country for around 20 years total - in a democratic society even the best cannot keep that up forever, they lose their sharpness and how to manage party and the public.
    Farage has been leader of a party for 20 years, he was first elected leader of UKIP in 2006, he is not some new kid on the block anymore than Orban is.

    Farage and Orban are also the same age, 62, Starmer is one year older at 63.

    Kemi is 46, only 1 year older than 45 year old Magyar
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,955
    edited April 12

    rcs1000 said:


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Three questions:

    1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?

    2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?

    3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043357926421680268

    The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
    Re: 1

    There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
    Isn't it even often even more complicated where they are flagged in one country, the operator and owner are different again, often shell companies, and perhaps if you do enough leg work, you might get back to the fact that perhaps they are connected to Hong Kong somehow, which doesn't instantly mean China. Mostly likely China, but not 100%.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,878
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    Easy. He'll not win. And on the back of it he'll do something like launch a Trump party.

    Just the MAGA movement, no need for a new party - 10-25% of the GOP are probabl with him forever, so he can continue to influence them.
    The GOP won't just keel over. Perhaps you're right that he can just split off the largest part. Imagine 'Trump forever' - my US friends currently refuse point blank to talk about politics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    For those not gripped by Hungarian elections BBC News (231 on my Freeview) has the Scottish Leaders debate.

    Obviously only of interest to a PB subsample...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352
    Leon said:

    There are many reasons for Orban's downfall, but the biggest is his refusal to take Ozempic.

    That got a proper lol. So thanks
    You can't blame him. It is made by a country in the EU.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,011

    US Masters looking like it might be a lot closer run thing than Hungarian elections.

    McIlroy is going have a blinding 4th round and win by 4. You heard it here first.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,518
    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Three questions:

    1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?

    2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?

    3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043357926421680268

    The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
    Re: 1

    There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
    How on earth do you know this?
    Firstly, vast swathes of shipping is registered to a handful of tiny countries. For tax reason mostly. Liberia is a shipping titan by registration. Putting your oil tankers at arms length is an old thing. You don't want liability for accidents arriving at your door.

    Secondly, you can find out about fleet, registrations etc online. Google is your friend, if you use it right. China is no different than the rest of the world in this.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429
    Leon said:

    How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?

    He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already

    Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”

    So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well

    The prospect of free and fair midterms is remote; the prospect of all significant groups agreeing to act on the basis they were free and fair is remoter. I don't think, unless Trumpworld shifts rapidly, they will happen at all.

This discussion has been closed.