(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
Is that really true - only 7% reject both the extreme left AND the extreme right? 93% are willing to consider either Ref, or Green, or both?
Yes, I was a little surprised by that. Though I suppose a large number of people would consider voting tactically for one or the other without being active supporters - and neither party has a track record in government to alienate voters.
It is, of course, an Ashcroft poll so subject to caveat.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
Is that really true - only 7% reject both the extreme left AND the extreme right? 93% are willing to consider either Ref, or Green, or both?
Why does Ashcroft miss the blindingly obvious questions?
1) Why is Kemi seeing 24% vote in 2024 decline to an average of 18% now when all political logic at this stage suggests she should be polling north of 24%?
2) If Kemi is attracting a miniscule number of Centrist voters with her "out Reform Reform right wing shouting and hectoring" wtf could a Centrist and far more personable and popular experienced Politician like Cleverley or Hunt be achieving?
Of course the answers are simple
1) shes doing an awful job
2) the obvious replacements would be doing FAR better , especially at tapping in to a flaky LD vote in 50-80 Southerly marginals.
The issue is simple....cease to exist as anything but a fringe of Reform as a right wing side show, or actually try to become a credible Opposition with a significantly higher number of seats as a credible Centrist Opposition
More than 500 seat losses and no higher than 4th in Scotland / Wales she's toast!
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
Israel definitely seems worse off to me. They've burned through alliances that they managed and curated for generations, in exchange for swapping the Iranian Supreme leader for his son.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
Is that really true - only 7% reject both the extreme left AND the extreme right? 93% are willing to consider either Ref, or Green, or both?
The emergence of mainstream forces to the left of Labour and to the right of the Tories make both those latter parties more acceptable to moderate voters repelled by the extremes; although both Tory and Labour Party retain individual politicians with views that many would still see as extreme, their leverage within their own parties is now hugely diminished, with pressure on the two larger parties coming through the political system as voters dally with the more radical options now on offer.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
Trump polishing the history books. When history is written, 100 years from now, Trumps's batshittery will be (partly!) glazed over compared with his "accomplishments" (Roe vs. wade, Khomenai, the accords etc.). The batshittery will be hard to fully explain to a culturally-distant future. The concrete acheivements, such as they are, will stand.
The fat lady hasn't even started to tune up. None of his so called achievements will outweigh the depravity of his Epstein crimes, the naked corruption of his repulsive family and the strategic catastrophe of the unraveling on NATO, not to mention the neo fascist violence he unleashed at home. He will be judged as the worst person to hold the Presidency and the most disastrous President ever. Taking the US from global leadership to global pariah is his most likely legacy. His name will have the same atmosphere as Mussolini - all swaggering braggadocio and absolute failure.
Mr. Cicero: "... and the most disastrous President ever".
'So far', not 'ever'. His successor(s) may be worse.
I remember in 2016 a montage was put out during the primaries saying whoever won, the vote would be historic.
Clinton - first female President Rubio - first Hispanic President Kasich - first Slavic president Sanders - first Jewish president Trump - last president.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
I can only assume Trump (or more likely, Stephen Miller) thought he would have a fairly short victorious war against Iran and then take control of their oil supplies to massively increase output before the midterms, which would kill the Epstein issue.
I mean, that does in itself show how insane he is given the exact opposite was always likely to happen. But it would at least on some level make sense.
What he was always going to have of course was either a long disastrous war which would kill his popularity, or, even more disastrously for him politically, a short failed war followed by the Epstein files anyway.
Mr. Cicero: "... and the most disastrous President ever".
'So far', not 'ever'. His successor(s) may be worse.
Well if Trump has set the US on the course of decline, you may very well be right, but the turning point will still be recorded as Trump.
Surely not, Trump scrapes the bottom of the barrel. Would Vance be worse? Unlikely. Rubio? No. Carlson, probably not, Miller? Possibly. Hegseth? Quite possibly. Don or Eric? Hmm!
Mr. Cicero: "... and the most disastrous President ever".
'So far', not 'ever'. His successor(s) may be worse.
Well if Trump has set the US on the course of decline, you may very well be right, but the turning point will still be recorded as Trump.
Surely not, Trump scrapes the bottom of the barrel. Would Vance be worse? Unlikely. Rubio? No. Carlson, probably not, Miller? Possibly. Hegseth? Quite possibly. Don or Eric? Hmm!
'Worse' is both a matter of competence and morality.
Tamerlane was very competent but wasn't exactly a poster boy of benevolence and human kindness.
Trump's successor will almost certainly be more competent. But someone like Vance seems far more anti-European for some reason.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
That SOPN sheet shows some interesting tussles. On the IoW (Parkhurst) there is a straight fight between Reform and the LibDems. Whitechapel in London has the most candidates (22) for 3 seats. And Leeds is a democratic hotspot with 9 candidates from 9 parties contesting seats in two wards.
And in East Sussex, you have an ex-MP (SallyAnn Hart) hoping to make a comeback by getting a seat at County level.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
One of the more bizarre conspiracy theories I read online claimed it was Israel who leaked it all, as Epstein was their agent, as a warning to Trump. 🤔
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
50 is what, a third of normal traffic?
Although there may be others sailing without their transponders on, of course.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
Reform has however managed to put someone up in almost every ward- the highest contested wards at 99.9% - a remarkable achievement for a party with no real local government track record. I expect there are some real duds in that crowd….
Yet Restore with just 9 council candidates in May 2026 are also for example 9/1 with Bet365 to win the most seats at the next general election.
Is there any scenario that could remotely justify those odds? If not then there's a strong argument that someone somewhere is trying to manipulate the political betting markets for nefarious purposes.
Rupert Lowe is big on X (helped by Musk). There are people who confuse what’s happening on X with real life, so they think Lowe is a big thing in real life, and bet accordingly.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
50 is what, a third of normal traffic?
Although there may be others sailing without their transponders on, of course.
Yeah, about a third of normal traffic but about 4 times the preceding day.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
I got very confused reading this. Normally, the discourse is very against boats crossing a channel and I had to recalibrate and remember we want these boats to cross this channel.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
I can only assume Trump (or more likely, Stephen Miller) thought he would have a fairly short victorious war against Iran and then take control of their oil supplies to massively increase output before the midterms, which would kill the Epstein issue.
I mean, that does in itself show how insane he is given the exact opposite was always likely to happen. But it would at least on some level make sense.
What he was always going to have of course was either a long disastrous war which would kill his popularity, or, even more disastrously for him politically, a short failed war followed by the Epstein files anyway.
Which is what he's now got.
The NYT reported a meeting with Bibi and his team who sold Trump the war.
Basically their intelligence was Iran would fold and Hormuz would be fine.
Hesgeth was keen, Vance wasn’t and Rubio sat on the fence.
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
The world operates on free flow of goods on water not simply for trade, but as the fundamental basis of international diplomacy. It isn't a natural state but one that has been rigourously enforced for more than a hundred years first by the British and then American navies. It's looking a bit wobbly now.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
Indeed. Zampolli has been inside the Trump "friends and acquaintances who get appointments" circle eg Kennedy Center 2020. He also repped for Dominica at the UN.
Hmmm. There's a need for some sort of sort out of our driving laws, and especially our drink-driving laws.
Katie Price just has her 7th ban since 2010. She's catching up on Tommy Robinson and prison sentences.
It's another mere 6 month ban.
It needs to be far more fully orbed. 10 or 20 year ban after 2 or 3 repeat offences to help them recover from their addiction to drinking and driving, then slow, highly limited vehicles, for which we now have the technology, and prevention of related activities such as owning a vehicle.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
Iranians making a fool of Trump.
Low bar, admittedly.
Is it not more accurate to say "Trump making a fool of Trump"?
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
And Israel, which had very little in the sympathy tank, has now drained that too.
Nobody comes out of this war looking better. With the possible exception of NATO and a good number of its members, who have looked at a map of the Gulf and of the North Atlantic and said "Huh?". For which they may lose their largest and most powerful member. At least until 2029.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
Israel definitely seems worse off to me. They've burned through alliances that they managed and curated for generations, in exchange for swapping the Iranian Supreme leader for his son.
While I don't dispute that this war has been a global disaster, in the longer term one thing we are now likely to see is Qatar, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait et al. move away from a neutral position to assist attempts to undermine the Iranian regime - and this could involve at least covert cooperation with Israel. They won't forget the attacks on their territory, and will want to do what they can to install a more plaint regime in Tehran.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
Indeed. Zampolli has been inside the Trump "friends and acquaintances who get appointments" circle eg Kennedy Center 2020. He also repped for Dominica at the UN.
Very karmic that one of the horrible arseholes of the regime of horrible arseholes that set up ICE is going to do further damage to the listing MAGA supertanker because he used ICE to sort out his private life.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
Iranians making a fool of Trump.
Low bar, admittedly.
Is it not more accurate to say "Trump making a fool of Trump"?
More accurate to say "Trump is a fool."
A misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fool, atop a court of misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fools.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
Indeed. Zampolli has been inside the Trump "friends and acquaintances who get appointments" circle eg Kennedy Center 2020. He also repped for Dominica at the UN.
Ungaro has a certain "Bonfire of the Vanities" quality to her. A guest at Melania's table for the 2017 innaugaration, loads of photos of her and the Trumps together, then this experience of ICE detention when she crossed Zampolli.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
I can only assume Trump (or more likely, Stephen Miller) thought he would have a fairly short victorious war against Iran and then take control of their oil supplies to massively increase output before the midterms, which would kill the Epstein issue.
I mean, that does in itself show how insane he is given the exact opposite was always likely to happen. But it would at least on some level make sense.
What he was always going to have of course was either a long disastrous war which would kill his popularity, or, even more disastrously for him politically, a short failed war followed by the Epstein files anyway.
Which is what he's now got.
The NYT reported a meeting with Bibi and his team who sold Trump the war.
Basically their intelligence was Iran would fold and Hormuz would be fine.
Hesgeth was keen, Vance wasn’t and Rubio sat on the fence.
The rest is history.
If asked, intriguing to wonder if the Republican Senators would have sanctioned the, er, Trumpian "excursion". But best not to ask, eh? Just in case they discovered a proto-spine.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
Iranians making a fool of Trump.
Low bar, admittedly.
Is it not more accurate to say "Trump making a fool of Trump"?
More accurate to say "Trump is a fool."
A misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fool, atop a court of misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fools.
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
Indeed. Zampolli has been inside the Trump "friends and acquaintances who get appointments" circle eg Kennedy Center 2020. He also repped for Dominica at the UN.
Very karmic that one of the horrible arseholes of the regime of horrible arseholes that set up ICE is going to do further damage to the listing MAGA supertanker because he used ICE to sort out his private life.
We did suggest to the MAGA supertanker that the Straits of Hormuz might not be safe if the Iranians got riled...
Perhaps the only silver lining to this giant clusterfuck is more MAGA morons losing their seat in the democratic process they so obviously despise. The world are going to pay a heavy price for that. But it might be worth it, if it hastens the end of Trump's effective power to November 2026.
But I think Orbans support (like most right wing populists) is mostly in the smaller towns and rural areas rather than the big city. Orban also gets a lot of votes from the Hungarian diasoora in Romania, Slovakia and Serbia, and these are not easy to poll.
It would certainly be good to see the fall of Putin and Trumps friend, but not yet done.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
Iranians making a fool of Trump.
Low bar, admittedly.
Is it not more accurate to say "Trump making a fool of Trump"?
More accurate to say "Trump is a fool."
A misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fool, atop a court of misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fools.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
Israel definitely seems worse off to me. They've burned through alliances that they managed and curated for generations, in exchange for swapping the Iranian Supreme leader for his son.
While I don't dispute that this war has been a global disaster, in the longer term one thing we are now likely to see is Qatar, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait et al. move away from a neutral position to assist attempts to undermine the Iranian regime - and this could involve at least covert cooperation with Israel. They won't forget the attacks on their territory, and will want to do what they can to install a more plaint regime in Tehran.
Oderint dum metuant. They certainly hate Iran but do they fear it? In which case they will deal with Iran.
I suspect the GCC will split. Iraq and Oman are reasonably friendly. Bahrain is a Sunni I think dictatorship trying to keep a lid on its Shi'ite population sympathetic to Iran. It's also small and vulnerable. It may not have a choice. Kuwait I don't know what drives its regime. Then in increasing order of unlikelihood: Qatar shares the world's biggest gas field with Iran and has other geographical reasons to work together. UAE very hostile but also has a lot to lose in a long drawn out dispute with Iran. Saudi I don't see ever dealing with Iran. Admit I don't know a whole lot about this.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
50 is what, a third of normal traffic?
Although there may be others sailing without their transponders on, of course.
As I noted with some presciencemaybe a week ago, the way to solvethis crisis was for Iran to charge tariff to transit the Straits of Hormuz - and cut Trump personally into 20% of what is raised.
"I get on great with the Mullahs. I understand them and they understnd me. They are good, God-fearing folk.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
Talks are rather more likely to succeed during a ceasefire. That's hardly controversial.
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
Israel definitely seems worse off to me. They've burned through alliances that they managed and curated for generations, in exchange for swapping the Iranian Supreme leader for his son.
Yes, I'd agree this very likely does them huge long term damage. In the short term, Netenyahu got pretty well what he wanted from the war.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
There’s been a major uptick in the number of boats crossing, 50 yesterday and 13 so far today.
I got very confused reading this. Normally, the discourse is very against boats crossing a channel and I had to recalibrate and remember we want these boats to cross this channel.
I had a double take too. Number of boats crossing sounds like something domestic.
On which note our own straits remain at middling numbers. 370 arrivals in the past 7 days, which is not disastrous for a calm sunny period but not really smashing the gangs.
An absolutely inexplicable puzzle as to why this President would spend US money trying to buy an election for the most corrupt and pro-Russian leader in Europe.
Trump: “My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it. We are excited to invest in the future Prosperity that will be generated by Orbán’s continued Leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMP” https://x.com/atrupar/status/2042704252032946282
Yes, not just a random Brazillian model that got deported by ICE. Amanda Ungaro was the girlfriend for 20 years of Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who brought both her and Melania Knaus to the USA. Zampolli was close to Epstein, and remains close to Trump, accompanying Vance on this weeks trip to Hungary for example.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
she better stay away from windows in tall buildings
Excellent news on the chagos islands ! The sun still does not set on the British empire (it would have done with this giveaway) .
Long live the overseas British territories
Kemi will be disappointed. They started the negotiations to get rid of it, only for Labour to completely mess it up - and we'll still have it.
Indeed the Tories , of which Kemi was a Cabinet Mamber, had 8 - 10 series of meetings to sell it off...(who ever you believe the Tories admit 8 some admit 10) Labour 2 meetings.
99.9% of the UK Public could not stick a pin in a map within 500 miles of it.
Another Tory and Reform Dead Donkey euthanised...
The MP for Tel Aviv and future Lord Chagos will be incandescent with rage!
Excellent news on the chagos islands ! The sun still does not set on the British empire (it would have done with this giveaway) .
Long live the overseas British territories
Kemi will be disappointed. They started the negotiations to get rid of it, only for Labour to completely mess it up - and we'll still have it.
Indeed the Tories , of which Kemi was a Cabinet Mamber, had 8 - 10 series of meetings to sell it off...(who ever you believe the Tories admit 8 some admit 10) Labour 2 meetings.
99.9% of the UK Public could not stick a pin in a map within 500 miles of it.
Another Tory and Reform Dead Donkey euthanised...
The MP for Tel Aviv and future Lord Chagos will be incandescent with rage!
Cameron binned the negotiations before leaving office. It was Labour who revived it.
Comments
Starting the war was stupid: no real planning, no consultation with potential allies; no explicit war aims (other than Netenyahu's) ... and no public support for it either in the US or elsewhere.
The entire world, with the possible exception of Israel, is worse off because of this adventure.
It is, of course, an Ashcroft poll so subject to caveat.
1) Why is Kemi seeing 24% vote in 2024 decline to an average of 18% now when all political logic at this stage suggests she should be polling north of 24%?
2) If Kemi is attracting a miniscule number of Centrist voters with her "out Reform Reform right wing shouting and hectoring" wtf could a Centrist and far more personable and popular experienced Politician like Cleverley or Hunt be achieving?
Of course the answers are simple
1) shes doing an awful job
2) the obvious replacements would be doing FAR better , especially at tapping in to a flaky LD vote in 50-80 Southerly marginals.
The issue is simple....cease to exist as anything but a fringe of Reform as a right wing side show, or actually try to become a credible Opposition with a significantly higher number of seats as a credible Centrist Opposition
More than 500 seat losses and no higher than 4th in Scotland / Wales she's toast!
They've burned through alliances that they managed and curated for generations, in exchange for swapping the Iranian Supreme leader for his son.
As I said, the attack on Iran buried some news so deeply that when it reappears you won’t be able to say old news because there is about 1 mention of it worldwide at the time the incriminating Epstein files were released
Mr. Cicero: "... and the most disastrous President ever".
'So far', not 'ever'. His successor(s) may be worse.
Clinton - first female President
Rubio - first Hispanic President
Kasich - first Slavic president
Sanders - first Jewish president
Trump - last president.
It's not looking crazily far fetched right now.
I mean, that does in itself show how insane he is given the exact opposite was always likely to happen. But it would at least on some level make sense.
What he was always going to have of course was either a long disastrous war which would kill his popularity, or, even more disastrously for him politically, a short failed war followed by the Epstein files anyway.
Which is what he's now got.
Tamerlane was very competent but wasn't exactly a poster boy of benevolence and human kindness.
Trump's successor will almost certainly be more competent. But someone like Vance seems far more anti-European for some reason.
Ungaro and Zampolli recently split up and were in a custody battle over their son before she was arrested and Zampolli contacted ICE, who deported her. Ungaro is now spitting feathers on Social Media and threatening to tell all.
And in East Sussex, you have an ex-MP (SallyAnn Hart) hoping to make a comeback by getting a seat at County level.
Although there may be others sailing without their transponders on, of course.
It is now 17 today.
A couple of weeks ago it was 2 or 3 a day.
Basically their intelligence was Iran would fold and Hormuz would be fine.
Hesgeth was keen, Vance wasn’t and Rubio sat on the fence.
The rest is history.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5682562c5079172c
Katie Price just has her 7th ban since 2010. She's catching up on Tommy Robinson and prison sentences.
It's another mere 6 month ban.
It needs to be far more fully orbed. 10 or 20 year ban after 2 or 3 repeat offences to help them recover from their addiction to drinking and driving, then slow, highly limited vehicles, for which we now have the technology, and prevention of related activities such as owning a vehicle.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gjp7xwjyzo
Latest non - government polls still show a healthy lead for Tisza but it’s hard to imagine that polling day won’t see an attempt to disrupt those.
And even if Tisza win there are all manner of things Orban could do until the next Parliament is seated .
Long live the overseas British territories
Nobody comes out of this war looking better. With the possible exception of NATO and a good number of its members, who have looked at a map of the Gulf and of the North Atlantic and said "Huh?". For which they may lose their largest and most powerful member. At least until 2029.
A misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fool, atop a court of misogynistic, racist, lying, thieving, war-mongering fools.
https://substack.com/@bekahdayyy/note/p-185682237?utm_source=notes-share-action
https://x.com/danielhegedus82/status/2042668720170860889?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Perhaps the only silver lining to this giant clusterfuck is more MAGA morons losing their seat in the democratic process they so obviously despise. The world are going to pay a heavy price for that. But it might be worth it, if it hastens the end of Trump's effective power to November 2026.
https://bsky.app/profile/adamjschwarz.bsky.social/post/3mj6e6qnfss2x
But I think Orbans support (like most right wing populists) is mostly in the smaller towns and rural areas rather than the big city. Orban also gets a lot of votes from the Hungarian diasoora in Romania, Slovakia and Serbia, and these are not easy to poll.
It would certainly be good to see the fall of Putin and Trumps friend, but not yet done.
I suspect the GCC will split. Iraq and Oman are reasonably friendly. Bahrain is a Sunni I think dictatorship trying to keep a lid on its Shi'ite population sympathetic to Iran. It's also small and vulnerable. It may not have a choice. Kuwait I don't know what drives its regime. Then in increasing order of unlikelihood: Qatar shares the world's biggest gas field with Iran and has other geographical reasons to work together. UAE very hostile but also has a lot to lose in a long drawn out dispute with Iran. Saudi I don't see ever dealing with Iran. Admit I don't know a whole lot about this.
"I get on great with the Mullahs. I understand them and they understnd me. They are good, God-fearing folk.
AndI am a God."
NEW THREAD
In the short term, Netenyahu got pretty well what he wanted from the war.
On which note our own straits remain at middling numbers. 370 arrivals in the past 7 days, which is not disastrous for a calm sunny period but not really smashing the gangs.
1 Jan to 9 April for last 4 years:
2022: 4548
2023: 4899
2024: 5517
2025: 7228
2026: 5136
Trump: “My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it. We are excited to invest in the future Prosperity that will be generated by Orbán’s continued Leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2042704252032946282
I just can't come up with an explanation.
99.9% of the UK Public could not stick a pin in a map within 500 miles of it.
Another Tory and Reform Dead Donkey euthanised...
The MP for Tel Aviv and future Lord Chagos will be incandescent with rage!
I don't want this site to become an echo chamber.
Neither do you.