politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out las
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend
On Sunday, as I have reported, I was polled by ICM. The call was initiated from the firm’s big political calling centre in the Bromham Road in Bedford which is, incidentally, only about a mile from where I live. I know that because I asked the interviewer.
Comments
-
First!0
-
Cue a morning of Nats complaining about 'secret polls'.........
As to the ICM Guardian poll, given the (so far) lack of corroboration, I suspect it was an 'outlier' - just like their previous poll showing Con on 28.
At the moment it looks pretty much a dead heat - but given the different dynamics in Scotland and rUK, it would be helpful if pollsters broke out their numbers on that basis - even if the Scottish samples, because of their size, will more likely be a source of entertainment than enlightenment.....0 -
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/17/green-party-the-first-hundred-days/
Day 18. Dorset. By that nice beach with the cliffs, right where they found Danny’s body on Broadchurch. The horizon is black with shipping: from jerry built African fishing boats to sleek Italian destroyers. It’s like Dunkirk in reverse. Everyone from AK47-toting smuggling gangs to EU states desperate to offload their refugee population now knows of Britain’s open-doors policy. Ragged crowds trudge ashore to be greeted by volunteers ladling out welcome bowls of tarka daal and a leaflet, personally handed out by Natalie Bennett, which says: “You are a British citizen now” in eighty-seven different languages.
0 -
Hunching & punting don't cosy up but mine is that ICM wasn't a pukka outlier. We've had a few of these from different firms - Ipsos, Ashcroft, ICM. Only TNS have wobbled t'other way. My take is that there are big variables in the mixer which occasionally throw a spanner in the national UNS type sampling & may show up as better Tory results. I'm thinking Scotland, LDs, UKIP, regional & constituency variations - and poss shy tories too - more than previous. It stands up that every so often its going to throw up what seems an outlier but may not be as such. With standard sample sizes it only takes small bumps to produce an "outlier". Not just whistling in the wind but if we see a couple more of these pro-Tory polls in next fortnight it may be a cue to be xtra careful. They might be doing better than some standard polling suggests. Disregard tho' any parties saying their polling suggests this or that - they always come out with guff like that. Noone's gonna say they're losing.
Still find this bleeding hard to call. My head's screaming LAB-SNP coalition or LAB outright. My heart says NO & could still be outright Tory. LOTS of reasons still to come for not going with LAB MAJ. I'm covering my positions & being v careful. Significant money to be made in this kind of situation if you keep yr focus. Take your eye off things & there's finger burning.0 -
Good piece from Alex Massie on Oborne's resignation:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/peter-oborne-has-performed-a-great-public-service-today/0 -
Anyway gotta go. Toughest election to call for a time. What would polling in 1974 have shown? Prob closest thing to this time.0
-
Interesting flip in the YouGov 'most important issues' - Labour voters are much more concerned about 'Tax' (18 vs 11 for Con for example) when it affects the country - but much less concerned about it affecting themselves or their family (16 vs 27 for Con).
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf0 -
Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.0
-
I don't know if it is based on some unpublished polling or not, but the Tory strategy for Wales does seem to be based on making a number of gains, not losses.... Maybe Labour's Welsh NHS is starting to hurt, and/or UKIP taking a much heavier toll on Labour there?0
-
Alternatively, Labour supporters do not mind paying a little more tax and think that it is good for the country that we all do.CarlottaVance said:Interesting flip in the YouGov 'most important issues' - Labour voters are much more concerned about 'Tax' (18 vs 11 for Con for example) when it affects the country - but much less concerned about it affecting themselves or their family (16 vs 27 for Con).
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf
0 -
Oh indeed, they such saints all of them - nothing like the glow of being so self-less. Completely unlike the nasty, selfish baby-eaters.SouthamObserver said:
Alternatively, Labour supporters do not mind paying a little more tax and think that it is good for the country that we all do.CarlottaVance said:Interesting flip in the YouGov 'most important issues' - Labour voters are much more concerned about 'Tax' (18 vs 11 for Con for example) when it affects the country - but much less concerned about it affecting themselves or their family (16 vs 27 for Con).
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf0 -
Ooh, touchy. I believe Carlotta's original point was that Labour voters have no problem with higher taxes as they will not be the ones paying them. I was merely providing an alternative explanation. And given that common wisdom on here is that many Labour voters these days are middle class state employees (who, of course, are likely to be on or close to the 40 pence tax threshold) and members of the liberal metropolitan elite (who will be on or close to the 45 pence rate) I am struggling to see how that is such a big claim.felix said:
Oh indeed, they such saints all of them - nothing like the glow of being so self-less. Completely unlike the nasty, selfish baby-eaters.SouthamObserver said:
Alternatively, Labour supporters do not mind paying a little more tax and think that it is good for the country that we all do.CarlottaVance said:Interesting flip in the YouGov 'most important issues' - Labour voters are much more concerned about 'Tax' (18 vs 11 for Con for example) when it affects the country - but much less concerned about it affecting themselves or their family (16 vs 27 for Con).
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf
0 -
I've had Crosby on the phone. His poll gave the Tories a 25 point lead. So the published ICM was an outlier as it was under calling the Tory landslide0
-
RochdalePioneers said:
I've had Crosby on the phone. His poll gave the Tories a 25 point lead. So the published ICM was an outlier as it was under calling the Tory landslide
You nearly had us there. But you used the "landslide" word. Whereas any fule no the term is "Tory majority - nailed on!"
What news from Rochdale? Is your MP going to defect to UKIP just before nomination papers have to be submitted?0 -
FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.0 -
Noticed this on BBC - re polling.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31504146
Might help some, but apologies if others have already linked it.0 -
Coming up later the Grand PB Prize General Election Prediction Competition. Number 1
Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error.
The plan is to run several competitions as we get closer. Details of the prize later.
0 -
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
0 -
The LibDems had a chance to become the economically literate Left. They COULD have used the Coalition as that springboard - if only they had spent 5 years hammering away at Labour. But to do that, they could not be semi-detatched in Government. You can't fight for decades to be a kingmaker, then get all coy and embarrassed when that happens.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
But they would have also needed a new leader. Nobody, but nobody, is prepared to listen to Clegg.
The LibDems are about to have a very, very bad general election. Remember last year, in the Euros, those voices saying they would do far better than people expected? Well, yes, maybe they did - against those saying the LibDems would be totally wiped out. And even that was a damned close run thing...
0 -
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.0 -
Nice line from Mats Persson this morning:
" To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the problem with socialism in the Eurozone is that eventually you run out of German money."0 -
Good morning all and on thread, the other day I noticed a Tweet from a well known Labour Peer indicating Labour backbenchers and candidates believe the ICM numbers reflect the real world and that Labour is building up votes where it doesn't need them i.e. in safe and no-hope seats.
As for Greece, it may have a charismatic PM and Finance Minister but the country needs to be well and truly spanked by the Germans and IMF and kicked out the euro.0 -
OGH no one can accuse you of lack of consistency.. How many "Dave cannot win" threads have there been in the last year?? 100? 200?MikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent0 -
The Ashcroft polling was taken when the LibDems were on significantly higher national polling levels than they are on now Mike.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
The Labour collapse in Scotland has happened since those polls of LibDem marginals that give you so much comfort.
Get consistent.0 -
Mike what you conveniently ignore is that the Ashcroft LibDem v Tory battleground polls are now at least 3-4 months old and in some cases 7-8 months old. You are old enough to remember pre 1983 when a dozen Liberals was the norm. If Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham then all bets are off.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent0 -
Is this first significant Labour to UKIP defection a tipping point or of no lasting importance?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11418931/Top-Labour-official-reveals-why-she-now-supports-Ukip.html0 -
If they left the Eurozone, they'd probably suffer a big drop in GDP to begin with, followed by rapid growth in the medium term - if they continued with economic liberalisation. Without the latter, growth will be less good.DavidL said:
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.
0 -
The corollary to that is 'with which to buy German cars'.DavidL said:Nice line from Mats Persson this morning:
" To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the problem with socialism in the Eurozone is that eventually you run out of German money."
Better together.0 -
To recover they would need to elect a government not committed to reemploying civil servants who have been sacked and increasing the minimum wage. That isn't this government.Sean_F said:
If they left the Eurozone, they'd probably suffer a big drop in GDP to begin with, followed by rapid growth in the medium term - if they continued with economic liberalisation. Without the latter, growth will be less good.DavidL said:
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.0 -
Probably just a badly-bruised ego after not being reselected to fight a council seat. But the old Labour Left was very Euro-sceptic and would not have accepted Ed's meek compliance with everything Brussels. Whether many more activists have the stomach politically to go all the way over to UKIP though must be doubtful. Less committed Labour folk - those who are just voters, not party members - might have far fewer qualms about making the journey.Patrick said:Is this first significant Labour to UKIP defection a tipping point or of no lasting importance?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11418931/Top-Labour-official-reveals-why-she-now-supports-Ukip.html0 -
I think one of the prerequisites for the 'countries can't go bust' argument is control over your own currency and monetary policy.Sean_F said:
If they left the Eurozone, they'd probably suffer a big drop in GDP to begin with, followed by rapid growth in the medium term - if they continued with economic liberalisation. Without the latter, growth will be less good.DavidL said:
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.
0 -
LOL, very good.Theuniondivvie said:
The corollary to that is 'with which to buy German cars'.DavidL said:Nice line from Mats Persson this morning:
" To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the problem with socialism in the Eurozone is that eventually you run out of German money."
Better together.0 -
Yet again the denier. I could refer people to some of the ludicrous posts you have had on here ahead of other elections. How many seats were the Tories going to take in Scotland.Easterross said:
Mike what you conveniently ignore is that the Ashcroft LibDem v Tory battleground polls are now at least 3-4 months old and in some cases 7-8 months old. You are old enough to remember pre 1983 when a dozen Liberals was the norm. If Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham then all bets are off.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
Anyway I'm going to be voting in Twickenham in the general election. I've swapped my vote in Bedford with someone who lives there. What he wants me to do I will follow and vice versa.
0 -
Greece is a big test for the European Project. In the past it has taken the piss on democracy. Want to vote against the Project do you, puny little people of a puny little country? No. Go away and keep asking the question until you come up with the answer we have given you....
The current Greek government is the sternest test of the EU's anti-democratic resolve. Brussels just cannot allow the Greeks to win. Or the contagion of "democracy" might spread. And that would never do....0 -
Presently the Lib Dems are being squeezed out of the air war.News bulletins feature the Tory and Labour offerings with virtually no LD coverage.They desperately need some good positive policy announcements to get back in the game.Otherwise as you say Casino they will be perceived as irrelevant to the contest and as losers which will make hanging on to seats even more difficult.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
0 -
Haven't lived there for years. But as a left leaning Labour activist it appears that, with regret, the Danczuk isn't about to depart for his spiritual Kipper home.MarqueeMark said:What news from Rochdale? Is your MP going to defect to UKIP just before nomination papers have to be submitted?
Here in Stockton South its an engaging battle! Our Tory MP claims credit for pretty much everything that is now happening and is getting increasing amounts of ridicule on community Facebook groups for the barefaced cheek of it. But he has got oceans of cash to keep posting out leaflets whereas ours go out by hand via the activist army
And the reality on the ground? A lot of undecided, a lot of "is there an election soon" and surprising numbers of kippers in what normally are Tory-leaning areas.0 -
And from March 31st the broadcasting rules come in which give guaranteed levels of coverage to both the LDs and UKIP. In my judgement this will hurt the Tories most.rogerh said:
Presently the Lib Dems are being squeezed out of the air war.News bulletins feature the Tory and Labour offerings with virtually no LD coverage.They desperately need some good positive policy announcements to get back in the game.Otherwise as you say Casino they will be perceived as irrelevant to the contest and as losers which will make hanging on to seats even more difficult.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
0 -
Noel Gallagher on the Tories in the Metro this morning:
'The Conservatives... I mean, what the f***? Cameron's trying to be your mate. Thatcher was like, "I'm going to f****** you in the a**, f*** what you say". You kind of respect that.'0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Indigo, any ETA on the vote's results?
Mr. Smithson, huzzah!
F1: second test starts tomorrow. By the time the third test finishes there'll only be a fortnight or so until the season kicks off.0 -
Since the Ashcroft polling, though, the Lib Dems have seriously upped their game in their held seats, haven´t they?Easterross said:Mike what you conveniently ignore is that the Ashcroft LibDem v Tory battleground polls are now at least 3-4 months old and in some cases 7-8 months old. You are old enough to remember pre 1983 when a dozen Liberals was the norm. If Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham then all bets are off.
And if the "Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham", then they are clearly delusional, and quite unfit for government.
0 -
Dan Hodges and Channel 4 are doing their damndest to keep UKIP visibility up MikeMikeSmithson said:
And from March 31st the broadcasting rules come in which give guaranteed levels of coverage to both the LDs and UKIP. In my judgement this will hurt the Tories most.rogerh said:
Presently the Lib Dems are being squeezed out of the air war.News bulletins feature the Tory and Labour offerings with virtually no LD coverage.They desperately need some good positive policy announcements to get back in the game.Otherwise as you say Casino they will be perceived as irrelevant to the contest and as losers which will make hanging on to seats even more difficult.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
0 -
Greece is a good test case of how a country would fare being run by a bunch of marxist academics.DavidL said:
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.
0 -
Btw
CON 38 vs Lab 34 (England) ICM
CON 38 vs Lab 37 (England) IPSOS
ICM had a low Scottish outlier for Labour, and I say that as someone backing against them.0 -
Appalling though the UKIP mockumentary was (and it was badly written, never mind the content) I imagine Kippers probably loved the over the top immigration raids bit.
Probably do them good, and I'm still of the view that the more Farage especially is on the media the better they do. Its all gone a bit slack for their VI recently, but ramp up towards elections, stick him on the telly and they always go back up. Which is bad news for the Tories. Who knows, we might have Teresa Shoeshopper claiming immigration raids as Tory policy if reelected?0 -
I'm sorry Mike, i don't believe the Lib Dems deserve the election result they are going to get - honestly, and I actively like the way they fight for and stand up for our civil liberties. But last week's Predicting and Understanding the 2015 General Election conference convinced me that they're on course for a very poor result, and I now expect less than 24 seats.MikeSmithson said:
Yet again the denier. I could refer people to some of the ludicrous posts you have had on here ahead of other elections. How many seats were the Tories going to take in Scotland.Easterross said:
Mike what you conveniently ignore is that the Ashcroft LibDem v Tory battleground polls are now at least 3-4 months old and in some cases 7-8 months old. You are old enough to remember pre 1983 when a dozen Liberals was the norm. If Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham then all bets are off.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
Anyway I'm going to be voting in Twickenham in the general election. I've swapped my vote in Bedford with someone who lives there. What he wants me to do I will follow and vice versa.
You just can't defy electoral gravity when you're on 6-7%. I think their vote will drop a lot even in seats they hold.0 -
It pushed my contrarian buttons and am still considering UKIP as a vote. I'd imagine it wouldn't have done them much harm at all. For one all UKIPers know a majority is impossible, they have nothing like the earthquake the SNP are causing in Scotland right now (In England)RochdalePioneers said:Appalling though the UKIP mockumentary was (and it was badly written, never mind the content) I imagine Kippers probably loved the over the top immigration raids bit.
Probably do them good, and I'm still of the view that the more Farage especially is on the media the better they do. Its all gone a bit slack for their VI recently, but ramp up towards elections, stick him on the telly and they always go back up. Which is bad news for the Tories. Who knows, we might have Teresa Shoeshopper claiming immigration raids as Tory policy if reelected?0 -
UN unanimously passes Russian drafted resolution on the Ukraine.
http://rt.com/news/233243-un-council-resolution-ukraine/
Putin confirms NATO supplying Kiev government forces, urges surrender of occupying forces in Debaltsevo. Alarmingly the UAF high command have ordered heavy equipment to be destroyed and for them to make a run for it. Suicidal.
http://rt.com/news/233231-putin-ukraine-conflict-west/0 -
As a country with its own currency, the UK clearly has significantly more room for manoeuvre than any member of the Eurozone. However, what happens to Greece should be of great interest to Scottish nationalists.DavidL said:
It is generous of Greece to set itself up as a sort of BenM experiment. His proposition, shared with many Labour voters, is that the government has far more room for manoeuvre than is currently thought and that it would be possible to further boost the economy by borrowing more at record low rates investing in infrastructure and housing.Indigo said:Tsipras has called a vote of the Greek parliament on Friday to scrap all the austerity measures... interesting times.
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.
0 -
5 UKIP MPs in the house would be no bad thing.0
-
Was it any worse than other Channel 4 fare such as Benefits Street, various "Aren't Gypsies dreadful" programmes and the thing on Romanians from the other night? At least it was clear that the UKIP programme was a drama.RochdalePioneers said:Appalling though the UKIP mockumentary was (and it was badly written, never mind the content) I imagine Kippers probably loved the over the top immigration raids bit.
Probably do them good, and I'm still of the view that the more Farage especially is on the media the better they do. Its all gone a bit slack for their VI recently, but ramp up towards elections, stick him on the telly and they always go back up. Which is bad news for the Tories. Who knows, we might have Teresa Shoeshopper claiming immigration raids as Tory policy if reelected?
0 -
I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.0
-
There's corroborating evidence for SLAB's woes. There isn't for LibDem triumpsMikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent0 -
Norman Lamb and I tolerated a little tactical vote operation back in 2005. Someone that I didn't know set up a website encouraging Labour people in Norfolk N to vote LibDem and LibDems in Broxtowe to vote Labour. Neither of us could endorse it without breaking our parties' rules, but we were old friends for the Treasury Select Committee and we agreed to smile benignly; I think that our respective supporters made sure it became known.MikeSmithson said:
Anyway I'm going to be voting in Twickenham in the general election. I've swapped my vote in Bedford with someone who lives there. What he wants me to do I will follow and vice versa.
I hope nobody is thinking of doing such a thing again. That would be so shocking, tsk.
There's an argument that they really need a core strategy. Europe? Yes, and the Euro too! Abolish MI5? Yes! Foreign wars? Never! Wind farms? We want three times as many! Immigration? We don't care! It doesn't matter if 80% of the electorate recoil, it'd bring some people back. It has a certain refreshing flavour, a bit like Noel Gallagher's LOL view of Thatcher quoted by Casino.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
Two problems, though. A lot of that space has been occupied by the Greens. And in the seats they're defneding they must have a lot of non-core votes, and they can't really afford to put them off. I think their strategy is different - they want to survive in their fortresses with a blah stop-the-evil-challenger message, then recover with a Labour government doing unpopular things, as every government does.
0 -
They bring comfort to some...Easterross said:I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.
@MSmithsonPB: If the country votes as today's TNS 7% LAB lead poll Ed Miliband would have overall majority in spite of Scotland0 -
Er, Eastleigh?Charles said:
There's corroborating evidence for SLAB's woes. There isn't for LibDem triumpsMikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent0 -
Interesting note from AndyJS, who I hope will come back to posting here soon (I've even forgotten what the minor slip was that prompted him to stop). Candidates declared so far:
Con 591, Lab 615, LD 463, UKIP 480, Greens 454, SNP 58, PC 38
So, not counting the Speaker's seat, 34 missing Lab, 64 missing Tories, 186 missing LibDems. Remarkable.0 -
If.. my aunt had had testes, she would have been my uncle.Scott_P said:
They bring comfort to some...Easterross said:I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.
@MSmithsonPB: If the country votes as today's TNS 7% LAB lead poll Ed Miliband would have overall majority in spite of Scotland0 -
Only complaining we do is about whining windbags like you. Sneering sad expat Scots whinging and moaning because you are not in Scotland. Go get a life.CarlottaVance said:Cue a morning of Nats complaining about 'secret polls'.........
As to the ICM Guardian poll, given the (so far) lack of corroboration, I suspect it was an 'outlier' - just like their previous poll showing Con on 28.
At the moment it looks pretty much a dead heat - but given the different dynamics in Scotland and rUK, it would be helpful if pollsters broke out their numbers on that basis - even if the Scottish samples, because of their size, will more likely be a source of entertainment than enlightenment.....0 -
Ha Ha Ha suddenly subsamples are gold standard and not a way to get banned, you really are a numpty for sure.CarlottaVance said:Interesting flip in the YouGov 'most important issues' - Labour voters are much more concerned about 'Tax' (18 vs 11 for Con for example) when it affects the country - but much less concerned about it affecting themselves or their family (16 vs 27 for Con).
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf0 -
The big problem with that strategy is that they tried that in the 2014 European elections, reasoning that the pool of pro-EU voters was larger than the number of voters currently supporting them in the opinion polls.NickPalmer said:There's an argument that they really need a core strategy. Europe? Yes, and the Euro too! Abolish MI5? Yes! Foreign wars? Never! Wind farms? We want three times as many! Immigration? We don't care! It doesn't matter if 80% of the electorate recoil, it'd bring some people back. It has a certain refreshing flavour, a bit like Noel Gallagher's LOL view of Thatcher quoted by Casino.
Two problems, though. A lot of that space has been occupied by the Greens. And in the seats they're defneding they must have a lot of non-core votes, and they can't really afford to put them off. I think their strategy is different - they want to survive in their fortresses with a blah stop-the-evil-challenger message, then recover with a Labour government doing unpopular things, as every government does.
Unfortunately it was a completely unmitigated disaster, losing them another chunk of support in the national opinion polls, and not doing anything to rescue their performance in the European elections themselves.0 -
The volume of polling probably has one beneficial effect in that outliers are more easily spotted and do not wrongly dominate the agenda for days. Ashcroft from a couple of weeks ago, ICM this week. With all the excitement from myself last week and Tories on Monday, Nick Palmer soon-to-be MP called it right - the race is still neck and neck. Labour's lead is probably still falling if now non existent.0
-
Conducted an interview with a chap whose book may interest some here (historical fiction meets sci-fi). It's up here:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/an-interview-with-andrew-p-weston.html0 -
Southam,
I saw Benefits Street and it took me back nearly half a century to my childhood. I remember less the hard working families with jobs than the unemployable group that this documentary concentrated on.
We'd now call them the people with mental health issues or IQ issues, but alcohol was the only drug then and relatively expensive. They tended to be regarded as harmless and just part of the estate.
Some things never change.
Biased? Possibly, but there's be no point making a programme about the boring people. Although I was amused by some critics who claimed that it was somehow made up. Unless my memories are faulty, of course.0 -
Problem is that then there were a handful of them , now they are everywhereCD13 said:Southam,
I saw Benefits Street and it took me back nearly half a century to my childhood. I remember less the hard working families with jobs than the unemployable group that this documentary concentrated on.
We'd now call them the people with mental health issues or IQ issues, but alcohol was the only drug then and relatively expensive. They tended to be regarded as harmless and just part of the estate.
Some things never change.
Biased? Possibly, but there's be no point making a programme about the boring people. Although I was amused by some critics who claimed that it was somehow made up. Unless my memories are faulty, of course.0 -
Sure - but there is a need to balance the UKIP show with other C4 output, which Kippers presumably find less offensive.CD13 said:Southam,
I saw Benefits Street and it took me back nearly half a century to my childhood. I remember less the hard working families with jobs than the unemployable group that this documentary concentrated on.
We'd now call them the people with mental health issues or IQ issues, but alcohol was the only drug then and relatively expensive. They tended to be regarded as harmless and just part of the estate.
Some things never change.
Biased? Possibly, but there's be no point making a programme about the boring people. Although I was amused by some critics who claimed that it was somehow made up. Unless my memories are faulty, of course.
0 -
TNS' house effect hurts the Conservatives, undoubtedly. The combined share for Labour/Green and Conservative/UKIP is in the same ballpark as the other companies. My guess is that TNS overstate UKIP by 3-4% and understate the Conservatives by the same amount.Easterross said:I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.
0 -
I thought the Tories/Lynton used Populus and CrosbyTextor to do their polling and not ICM.0
-
The LD figure is remarkable. The other big parties will no doubt be keeping some seats vacant for last minute central office parachutes, but I doubt the Libs go in for much of that stuff. Two months until nominations have to be submitted and they are nearly 200 short. That's a lot of saved deposits I suppose.NickPalmer said:Interesting note from AndyJS, who I hope will come back to posting here soon (I've even forgotten what the minor slip was that prompted him to stop). Candidates declared so far:
Con 591, Lab 615, LD 463, UKIP 480, Greens 454, SNP 58, PC 38
So, not counting the Speaker's seat, 34 missing Lab, 64 missing Tories, 186 missing LibDems. Remarkable.0 -
The one problem with this is that, unlike 8-10 years ago, the polling is not roughly evenly distributed between the pollsters.BenM said:The volume of polling probably has one beneficial effect in that outliers are more easily spotted and do not wrongly dominate the agenda for days. Ashcroft from a couple of weeks ago, ICM this week. With all the excitement from myself last week and Tories on Monday, Nick Palmer soon-to-be MP called it right - the race is still neck and neck. Labour's lead is probably still falling if now non existent.
YouGov poll more often than all the rest, but they clearly give a higher score to the Greens and a lower score to the Lib Dems than the average of the pollsters. This affects our understanding of the polls.
If ICM were polling several times a week, and YouGov only once a month, then perhaps we wouldn't think the race was too close to call.0 -
...and still no LibDem in Nick's seat. They polled nearly 9,000 votes last time. Most of them have got to go somewhere.NickPalmer said:Interesting note from AndyJS, who I hope will come back to posting here soon (I've even forgotten what the minor slip was that prompted him to stop). Candidates declared so far:
Con 591, Lab 615, LD 463, UKIP 480, Greens 454, SNP 58, PC 38
So, not counting the Speaker's seat, 34 missing Lab, 64 missing Tories, 186 missing LibDems. Remarkable.0 -
TNS overstated the Lab-Con gap by 5.5 at the Euros. Joint worst in that respect.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?
0 -
Mr. Me, indeed. Last election the ultra-frequent polling by YouGov led to it shaping rather than reflecting public opinion. Polling should be strictly controlled and limited during the electoral period.
Edited extra bit: important news. Limpet teeth are stronger than spider silk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-315008830 -
Unless TNS are somehow uniquely correct with their polls their results may well have some effect on their broader business. They are part of WPP and their lead brand worldwide for research.Sean_F said:
TNS' house effect hurts the Conservatives, undoubtedly. The combined share for Labour/Green and Conservative/UKIP is in the same ballpark as the other companies. My guess is that TNS overstate UKIP by 3-4% and understate the Conservatives by the same amount.Easterross said:I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.
Can clients trust their basic sampling and attribution techniques if they get political polling so consistently wrong.0 -
You have to credit the Yellow Pox with some brains. You are right - 9,000 votes have to go somewhere. In not running a candidate they have recognised the reality that they aren't going to the LibDems.rottenborough said:...and still no LibDem in Nick's seat. They polled nearly 9,000 votes last time. Most of them have got to go somewhere.
BTW interesting to hear about OGH doing a vote swap - what a great idea! Must be some way to get that going nationally....
0 -
Er, ICM?chestnut said:TNS overstated the Lab-Con gap by 5.5 at the Euros. Joint worst in that respect.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?0 -
Both ICM and IPSOS point to 38% for the Conservatives in England - that's probably the most realistic good news for them from the polls.chestnut said:TNS overstated the Lab-Con gap by 5.5 at the Euros. Joint worst in that respect.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?0 -
Poor old ICM - they may have got the last couple of GE's right but they've lost their gold standard for having the temerity to post a sizeable Con lead.
Well done to Lord A for picking up the mantle though - despite recent arithmetic issues.0 -
F1: Betfair (exchange, not Sportsbook) has more F1 markets up, including Australia. Haven't really got going yet, however.
Drivers Championship without Hamilton/Rosberg could be interesting to try and guess.0 -
Good Morning all.
What OGH is really saying this morning - in a loud whisper - is that polling companies are asking leading questions to get the result they want.
Quelle surprise; not.0 -
There was certainly a "swap" website in 2005. IIRC I voted Labour and someone who claimed to be a Labour supporter in, again IIRC, Totnes, voted LD.RochdalePioneers said:
You have to credit the Yellow Pox with some brains. You are right - 9,000 votes have to go somewhere. In not running a candidate they have recognised the reality that they aren't going to the LibDems.rottenborough said:...and still no LibDem in Nick's seat. They polled nearly 9,000 votes last time. Most of them have got to go somewhere.
BTW interesting to hear about OGH doing a vote swap - what a great idea! Must be some way to get that going nationally....
Didn't do a lot of good!0 -
...and for your entertainment and not political at all:
A few people have posted this and I want you to know I may never get tired of watching this GIF: pic.twitter.com/NUxoPo2I1q
— king of beards (@tonybreed) February 18, 20150 -
I'm not sure I'd recommend campaigning hard on a pro-EU, pro-immigration, pacifist, but pro-environmentalism platform. I don't think that has as much currency or distinctiveness as their core message of personal, local and social liberalism, which is their real USP. That's help their morale, and retention of members and activists.NickPalmer said:
Norman Lamb and I tolerated a little tactical vote operation back in 2005. Someone that I didn't know set up a website encouraging Labour people in Norfolk N to vote LibDem and LibDems in Broxtowe to vote Labour. Neither of us could endorse it without breaking our parties' rules, but we were old friends for the Treasury Select Committee and we agreed to smile benignly; I think that our respective supporters made sure it became known.MikeSmithson said:
Anyway I'm going to be voting in Twickenham in the general election. I've swapped my vote in Bedford with someone who lives there. What he wants me to do I will follow and vice versa.
I hope nobody is thinking of doing such a thing again. That would be so shocking, tsk.
There's an argument that they really need a core strategy. Europe? Yes, and the Euro too! Abolish MI5? Yes! Foreign wars? Never! Wind farms? We want three times as many! Immigration? We don't care! It doesn't matter if 80% of the electorate recoil, it'd bring some people back. It has a certain refreshing flavour, a bit like Noel Gallagher's LOL view of Thatcher quoted by Casino.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
Two problems, though. A lot of that space has been occupied by the Greens. And in the seats they're defneding they must have a lot of non-core votes, and they can't really afford to put them off. I think their strategy is different - they want to survive in their fortresses with a blah stop-the-evil-challenger message, then recover with a Labour government doing unpopular things, as every government does.
In the seats they're defending they're best advised to continue on the strong localism and common sense moderation, and explain to voters why that makes sense under any political weather.0 -
chestnut said:
TNS overstated the Lab-Con gap by 5.5 at the Euros. Joint worst in that respect.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?
If we take those two effects into account TNS showsSean_F said:
TNS' house effect hurts the Conservatives, undoubtedly. The combined share for Labour/Green and Conservative/UKIP is in the same ballpark as the other companies. My guess is that TNS overstate UKIP by 3-4% and understate the Conservatives by the same amount.Easterross said:I see TNS has churned out its monthly poll which for the 3rd month in a row shows Tories on 28 and Labour on 35. Don't know why they bother when their polls are so obviously garbage.
Con 32 UKIP 15 Lab 34.0 -
One seat, where they had a 1 year lead time on the other parties and threw everything at it.OblitusSumMe said:
Er, Eastleigh?Charles said:
There's corroborating evidence for SLAB's woes. There isn't for LibDem triumpsMikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent0 -
Ukip should take a leaf out of fellow nationalistic socialists the SNPs book and commission their own polls - I believe some secret Canadians are available at a reasonable rate.MikeK said:Good Morning all.
What OGH is really saying this morning - in a loud whisper - is that polling companies are asking leading questions to get the result they want.
Quelle surprise; not.0 -
Important poll of the day:
Flower of Scotland : 182 (35%)
Freedom Come All Ye : 133 (26%)
Caledonia : 95 (18%)
Scots Wha Hae : 61 (12%)
Is There For Honest Poverty : 57 (11%)
Scotland the Brave : 40 (7%)
Highland Cathedral : 35 (6%)
Auld Lang Syne : 33 (6%)
I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) : 26 (5%)
Both Sides The Tweed : 16 (3%)
Loch Lomond : 13 (2%)
The Dark Island : 6 (1%)
The Skye Boat Song : 4 (0%)
A Man Without Love : 4 (0%)
Land of Light : 4 (0%)
The Thistle o' Scotland : 1 (0%)0 -
If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood and you want to arrange a vote swap with a voter in Sheffield Hallam contact me.
I'll vote for Nick Clegg if you vote for Kelly Tolhurst.0 -
The last ComRes 'phone poll had Con 31 Lab 30. Averaging the most recent 'phone polls puts the Conservatives slightly ahead (by 0.5%). Online polls have Labour ahead by c2% on average. Broadly, Labour and UKIP do slightly better online, the Conservatives do slightly better on the 'phone. If we had more 'phone polls, we'd probably have more Conservative leads.chestnut said:TNS overstated the Lab-Con gap by 5.5 at the Euros. Joint worst in that respect.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?
0 -
Mike, are you sure this wasn't part of the Ashcroft National poll ?
1) The fieldwork dates match
2) The rank the parties/leaders on a score of 100 is what the Good Lord asked as well0 -
"If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood"
Liberal Democrat Geoff Juby 349
Errm0 -
Agreed.Sean_F said:The last ComRes 'phone poll had Con 31 Lab 30. Averaging the most recent 'phone polls puts the Conservatives slightly ahead (by 0.5%). Online polls have Labour ahead by c2% on average. Broadly, Labour and UKIP do slightly better online, the Conservatives do slightly better on the 'phone. If we had more 'phone polls, we'd probably have more Conservative leads.
The fog of Yougov, and to a lesser extent Populus, may be clouding some thinking where the sheer volume of polls weights opinion towards those two pollsters published findings.0 -
Interesting TNS poll.
When are we expecting swingover to occur?0 -
Ok. If there are any Labour supporters in Rochester and Strood, and you want me to vote Labour in Sheffield Hallam to oust Clegg, I'll do it if you vote Tory in R&SPulpstar said:"If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood"
Liberal Democrat Geoff Juby 349
Errm0 -
Rochester and Strood by-election is a good indicator that the Lib Dems can retain seats actually - they lost 22 out of ~ 23 voters there, enough to keep ~ 27 MPs on 6.5% national vote share I think.0
-
And yet a real election and consistent with the Ashcroft polling.Charles said:
One seat, where they had a 1 year lead time on the other parties and threw everything at it.OblitusSumMe said:
Er, Eastleigh?Charles said:
There's corroborating evidence for SLAB's woes. There isn't for LibDem triumpsMikeSmithson said:
The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending.Casino_Royale said:FPT - the Lib Dems. I agree that their 6% polling figure in YouGov is awful. Given how late in the day it is, I'm really not sure what they can do differently now. However, I do question their 'vote for the leash' strategy ("we'll be the Tories heart and Labour's spine") - as it offers them no positive USP.
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
There's no evidence that contradicts the Ashcroft polling. Of course it might be wrong anyway, but making that judgement appears to be based on wishful thinking rather than a clear-headed appraisal of the evidence.0 -
At the risk of talking my own Scottish book, the TNS there was very pro Labour too.___Bobajob___ said:Interesting TNS poll.
When are we expecting swingover to occur?0 -
So where are we?
Oborne discredits the Telegraph.
Phone hacking discredits Sun, Mirror and the now defunct News of the World.
The Express is discredited due to sheer idiocy of its stories and its clueless ramping of the racist UKIP.
Leaving the Times, Indy, Mail and Guardian. Bastions of free speech my backside.0 -
With the telephone pollsters, it possibly has occurred.___Bobajob___ said:Interesting TNS poll.
When are we expecting swingover to occur?
0 -
An absolute humdinger of a set of employment stats.
Unemployment down to 5.7%. Pay up by 2.1%. Last month's revised up too.0 -
Bloody Hell
Didn't realise Daesh have conquered half of Libya (Only the Med coast actually matters there) - when did that happen ?!0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
