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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out las
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend
On Sunday, as I have reported, I was polled by ICM. The call was initiated from the firm’s big political calling centre in the Bromham Road in Bedford which is, incidentally, only about a mile from where I live. I know that because I asked the interviewer.
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As to the ICM Guardian poll, given the (so far) lack of corroboration, I suspect it was an 'outlier' - just like their previous poll showing Con on 28.
At the moment it looks pretty much a dead heat - but given the different dynamics in Scotland and rUK, it would be helpful if pollsters broke out their numbers on that basis - even if the Scottish samples, because of their size, will more likely be a source of entertainment than enlightenment.....
Still find this bleeding hard to call. My head's screaming LAB-SNP coalition or LAB outright. My heart says NO & could still be outright Tory. LOTS of reasons still to come for not going with LAB MAJ. I'm covering my positions & being v careful. Significant money to be made in this kind of situation if you keep yr focus. Take your eye off things & there's finger burning.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/peter-oborne-has-performed-a-great-public-service-today/
I guess their expectation is that someone else isn't paying, but will be made to, and it won't be them, while Conservative voters' view is the reverse......
And in the Scottish subsample watch (day before):
Lab: 29 (23)
SNP: 35 (43)
Can't be good for nerves north of the border!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tdoeatmyoy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170215.pdf
You nearly had us there. But you used the "landslide" word. Whereas any fule no the term is "Tory majority - nailed on!"
What news from Rochdale? Is your MP going to defect to UKIP just before nomination papers have to be submitted?
It surely must make at least as much sense for them to campaign hard on their core values: civil liberties, personal and social freedom and further decentralisation/devolution of power.
They can then campaign on their successes against those headings in this parliament, and what they'd like to do on them in the next.
Yes, it's not going to win them the election. But when you're on 6% you're already at (or below) core vote levels, and they need to do something to shore it up: to stop themselves being snuffed out of existence.
It's far worse to be irrelevant than hated.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31504146
Might help some, but apologies if others have already linked it.
Coming up later the Grand PB Prize General Election Prediction Competition. Number 1
Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error.The plan is to run several competitions as we get closer. Details of the prize later.
People seem to want accept the parts of the Ashcroft mix that they like (Lab collapse in Scotland) but not the parts they don't like such as the struggle the Tories are having against the LDs.
Get consistent
But they would have also needed a new leader. Nobody, but nobody, is prepared to listen to Clegg.
The LibDems are about to have a very, very bad general election. Remember last year, in the Euros, those voices saying they would do far better than people expected? Well, yes, maybe they did - against those saying the LibDems would be totally wiped out. And even that was a damned close run thing...
Greece does not have record low bond rates, indeed the bond market already has Greece disengaged from the remainder of the Eurozone, but it still seems to think that the amount that a government can spend is a matter of democratic will rather than economics.
When you are dependent on third parties outside the country this is not the case. There is no reason why other countries, some with significantly lower standards of living than Greece, will agree to subsidise such fantasies. My guess is that Greece will end up out of the Eurozone, even if they continue to use the Euro for day to day transactions. I suspect this will happen before the 28th.
" To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the problem with socialism in the Eurozone is that eventually you run out of German money."
As for Greece, it may have a charismatic PM and Finance Minister but the country needs to be well and truly spanked by the Germans and IMF and kicked out the euro.
The Labour collapse in Scotland has happened since those polls of LibDem marginals that give you so much comfort.
Get consistent.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11418931/Top-Labour-official-reveals-why-she-now-supports-Ukip.html
Better together.
Anyway I'm going to be voting in Twickenham in the general election. I've swapped my vote in Bedford with someone who lives there. What he wants me to do I will follow and vice versa.
The current Greek government is the sternest test of the EU's anti-democratic resolve. Brussels just cannot allow the Greeks to win. Or the contagion of "democracy" might spread. And that would never do....
Here in Stockton South its an engaging battle! Our Tory MP claims credit for pretty much everything that is now happening and is getting increasing amounts of ridicule on community Facebook groups for the barefaced cheek of it. But he has got oceans of cash to keep posting out leaflets whereas ours go out by hand via the activist army
And the reality on the ground? A lot of undecided, a lot of "is there an election soon" and surprising numbers of kippers in what normally are Tory-leaning areas.
'The Conservatives... I mean, what the f***? Cameron's trying to be your mate. Thatcher was like, "I'm going to f****** you in the a**, f*** what you say". You kind of respect that.'
Mr. Indigo, any ETA on the vote's results?
Mr. Smithson, huzzah!
F1: second test starts tomorrow. By the time the third test finishes there'll only be a fortnight or so until the season kicks off.
And if the "Tories are starting to think they can take seats like Twickenham", then they are clearly delusional, and quite unfit for government.
CON 38 vs Lab 34 (England) ICM
CON 38 vs Lab 37 (England) IPSOS
ICM had a low Scottish outlier for Labour, and I say that as someone backing against them.
Probably do them good, and I'm still of the view that the more Farage especially is on the media the better they do. Its all gone a bit slack for their VI recently, but ramp up towards elections, stick him on the telly and they always go back up. Which is bad news for the Tories. Who knows, we might have Teresa Shoeshopper claiming immigration raids as Tory policy if reelected?
You just can't defy electoral gravity when you're on 6-7%. I think their vote will drop a lot even in seats they hold.
http://rt.com/news/233243-un-council-resolution-ukraine/
Putin confirms NATO supplying Kiev government forces, urges surrender of occupying forces in Debaltsevo. Alarmingly the UAF high command have ordered heavy equipment to be destroyed and for them to make a run for it. Suicidal.
http://rt.com/news/233231-putin-ukraine-conflict-west/
I hope nobody is thinking of doing such a thing again. That would be so shocking, tsk. There's an argument that they really need a core strategy. Europe? Yes, and the Euro too! Abolish MI5? Yes! Foreign wars? Never! Wind farms? We want three times as many! Immigration? We don't care! It doesn't matter if 80% of the electorate recoil, it'd bring some people back. It has a certain refreshing flavour, a bit like Noel Gallagher's LOL view of Thatcher quoted by Casino.
Two problems, though. A lot of that space has been occupied by the Greens. And in the seats they're defneding they must have a lot of non-core votes, and they can't really afford to put them off. I think their strategy is different - they want to survive in their fortresses with a blah stop-the-evil-challenger message, then recover with a Labour government doing unpopular things, as every government does.
@MSmithsonPB: If the country votes as today's TNS 7% LAB lead poll Ed Miliband would have overall majority in spite of Scotland
Con 591, Lab 615, LD 463, UKIP 480, Greens 454, SNP 58, PC 38
So, not counting the Speaker's seat, 34 missing Lab, 64 missing Tories, 186 missing LibDems. Remarkable.
Unfortunately it was a completely unmitigated disaster, losing them another chunk of support in the national opinion polls, and not doing anything to rescue their performance in the European elections themselves.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/an-interview-with-andrew-p-weston.html
I saw Benefits Street and it took me back nearly half a century to my childhood. I remember less the hard working families with jobs than the unemployable group that this documentary concentrated on.
We'd now call them the people with mental health issues or IQ issues, but alcohol was the only drug then and relatively expensive. They tended to be regarded as harmless and just part of the estate.
Some things never change.
Biased? Possibly, but there's be no point making a programme about the boring people. Although I was amused by some critics who claimed that it was somehow made up. Unless my memories are faulty, of course.
YouGov poll more often than all the rest, but they clearly give a higher score to the Greens and a lower score to the Lib Dems than the average of the pollsters. This affects our understanding of the polls.
If ICM were polling several times a week, and YouGov only once a month, then perhaps we wouldn't think the race was too close to call.
On we trudge with 'ICM was an outlier'
Last four phone polls
ICM 36
Ipsos 34 (35 on 8/10 or 9/10 likelihood to vote)
Ashcroft 34 (the one published on 7/2)
Ashcroft 30 (this week)
Which one really looks like the outlier using this polling method?
Edited extra bit: important news. Limpet teeth are stronger than spider silk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31500883
Can clients trust their basic sampling and attribution techniques if they get political polling so consistently wrong.
BTW interesting to hear about OGH doing a vote swap - what a great idea! Must be some way to get that going nationally....
Well done to Lord A for picking up the mantle though - despite recent arithmetic issues.
Drivers Championship without Hamilton/Rosberg could be interesting to try and guess.
What OGH is really saying this morning - in a loud whisper - is that polling companies are asking leading questions to get the result they want.
Quelle surprise; not.
Didn't do a lot of good!
In the seats they're defending they're best advised to continue on the strong localism and common sense moderation, and explain to voters why that makes sense under any political weather.
Con 32 UKIP 15 Lab 34.
Flower of Scotland : 182 (35%)
Freedom Come All Ye : 133 (26%)
Caledonia : 95 (18%)
Scots Wha Hae : 61 (12%)
Is There For Honest Poverty : 57 (11%)
Scotland the Brave : 40 (7%)
Highland Cathedral : 35 (6%)
Auld Lang Syne : 33 (6%)
I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) : 26 (5%)
Both Sides The Tweed : 16 (3%)
Loch Lomond : 13 (2%)
The Dark Island : 6 (1%)
The Skye Boat Song : 4 (0%)
A Man Without Love : 4 (0%)
Land of Light : 4 (0%)
The Thistle o' Scotland : 1 (0%)
I'll vote for Nick Clegg if you vote for Kelly Tolhurst.
1) The fieldwork dates match
2) The rank the parties/leaders on a score of 100 is what the Good Lord asked as well
Liberal Democrat Geoff Juby 349
Errm
The fog of Yougov, and to a lesser extent Populus, may be clouding some thinking where the sheer volume of polls weights opinion towards those two pollsters published findings.
When are we expecting swingover to occur?
There's no evidence that contradicts the Ashcroft polling. Of course it might be wrong anyway, but making that judgement appears to be based on wishful thinking rather than a clear-headed appraisal of the evidence.
Oborne discredits the Telegraph.
Phone hacking discredits Sun, Mirror and the now defunct News of the World.
The Express is discredited due to sheer idiocy of its stories and its clueless ramping of the racist UKIP.
Leaving the Times, Indy, Mail and Guardian. Bastions of free speech my backside.
Unemployment down to 5.7%. Pay up by 2.1%. Last month's revised up too.
Didn't realise Daesh have conquered half of Libya (Only the Med coast actually matters there) - when did that happen ?!