If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood and you want to arrange a vote swap with a voter in Sheffield Hallam contact me.
I'll vote for Nick Clegg if you vote for Kelly Tolhurst.
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it.
You misunderestimate my contempt for Mark Reckless.
Mr. Dair, there do sound, from that article, to be similarities, but there are often are with sci-fi/fantasy stories, not to mention other genres. There are many stories about slaying the dragon, saving the world from an ancient evil or a great big medieval war.
If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood and you want to arrange a vote swap with a voter in Sheffield Hallam contact me.
I'll vote for Nick Clegg if you vote for Kelly Tolhurst.
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it.
You misunderestimate my contempt for Mark Reckless.
...and still no LibDem in Nick's seat. They polled nearly 9,000 votes last time. Most of them have got to go somewhere.
You have to credit the Yellow Pox with some brains. You are right - 9,000 votes have to go somewhere. In not running a candidate they have recognised the reality that they aren't going to the LibDems.
BTW interesting to hear about OGH doing a vote swap - what a great idea! Must be some way to get that going nationally....
They will have a candidate in the end - I know the only serious volunteer well and he's a nice, not very partisan, guy who would get a decent personal vote even if he didn't say a word. They don't, I understand, plan to campaign beyond an election address, though they'll naturally fight hard for their borough seats. One of the local quirks that make seats vary is that there is a local Lab-LD coalition, sometimes quarrelsome but basically intact, and under relentless attack from AS (though not especially the local Tory councillors) for 5 years. A lot of local LibDems have been waiting patiently for the chance to do something about it.
Always interesting to read your thoughts Nick. But I cannot resist a gentle dig about What happened to the Conservatives4Nick group?
If you are under 65 with no access to the Gov't free cash and need a 1% return on your money in 79 days... 1-100 looks generous
More rubbish. You are actually giving the govt money for 3 years. It's called National Savings. Macmillan invented premium bonds. It's likely the govt will have 15 bn in its coffers and the interest it pays out will go straight back into the economy and pay vat.
Why aren't they being offered to everyone if they're such a great idea ?
Because pensioners are wait for it... Poor. They rely on interest for their income. National Savings are available for everyone. Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
If there are any Lib Dems in Rochester and Strood and you want to arrange a vote swap with a voter in Sheffield Hallam contact me.
I'll vote for Nick Clegg if you vote for Kelly Tolhurst.
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
If you're not in a marginal your vote is pretty pointless, so this sort of thing is bound to appeal.
Flower of Scotland : 182 (35%) Freedom Come All Ye : 133 (26%) Caledonia : 95 (18%) Scots Wha Hae : 61 (12%) Is There For Honest Poverty : 57 (11%) Scotland the Brave : 40 (7%) Highland Cathedral : 35 (6%) Auld Lang Syne : 33 (6%) I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) : 26 (5%) Both Sides The Tweed : 16 (3%) Loch Lomond : 13 (2%) The Dark Island : 6 (1%) The Skye Boat Song : 4 (0%) A Man Without Love : 4 (0%) Land of Light : 4 (0%) The Thistle o' Scotland : 1 (0%)
Oh well...at least they got the important vote right.....dreadful dirge, even worse than GSTQ....
Surely speeding is a simple issue. We know what the penalties are. If we choose to speed we choose to accept that penalty in the event of being caught. Don't want to risk the penalty? Don't speed. People complaining about choosing to take a risk and getting caught as a result baffle me.
As for variable speed limits on the motorway there is a 60 second grace period - the speed limit adjusts, and 60 seconds later the threshold for the camera adjusts. And as always you can assume limit +10% is safe. Understanding the % overread on your car's speedo always helps.
Or use the speed shown on your sat-nav (which is usually a few MPH less than the speedometer). I suspect that heavily weighed cars will also over-estimate the speed since the circumference of the tyre will be reduced.
TSE - Past performance does not equal future results.
As a researcher, for me the 3 big questions, which will decide who comes out on top are:
1) How well will past vote weighting/spiral of silence adjustments work this time round when the political picture is so unstable? 2) UKIP/SNP have done well in attracting the support of 2010 non-voters. How many of these will actually turn out on election day? 3) What, if any, allowances should be made for people who intend to vote but have actually dropped off the register (bearing in mind this seems to mainly be affecting students)?
Can you tell that I'm someone who for five years or so did a daily 130 mile round trip to work?
Yes. The whole system is a complete mess that brings the law into disrepute and causes massive pain for the unfortunates that make genuine mistakes. One example is a 30mph limit due to being on a rout to a school which is being enforced at midnight on a road built for 40mph+ Another is a dual carriageway built for 50mph+ with a 30mph limit as it gets clogged up during the rush hours but the 30mph is still there on weekends.
If you are under 65 with no access to the Gov't free cash and need a 1% return on your money in 79 days... 1-100 looks generous
More rubbish. You are actually giving the govt money for 3 years. It's called National Savings. Macmillan invented premium bonds. It's likely the govt will have 15 bn in its coffers and the interest it pays out will go straight back into the economy and pay vat.
Why aren't they being offered to everyone if they're such a great idea ?
Because pensioners are wait for it... Poor. They rely on interest for their income. National Savings are available for everyone. Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
Today's pensioners are, by some considerable distance, by far the richest group in society.
And it is BECAUSE of this that tomorrows pensioners will genuinely be poor, lacking access to any worthwhile pension savings option and likely to have little to zero access to the wide variety of state benefits currently provided to the richest people in Britain (TV license, bus pass, heating bonus, State Pension, etc.)
Ditch the motorway speed limits, prosecute Lorries that attempt to overtake each other on the A1, middle lane hoggers and up sentences for drivers that drive recklessly past horses and cyclists on the roads.
Better still - upgrade the **** A1 to a motorway up to Edinburgh. North of Newcastle Upon Tyne it's a death-trap.
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
What it does is drive a coach and horses through one of the main arguments for FPTP - the so-called "constituency" link. If people would rather vote for the candidate of their party in a seat hundreds of miles away and then actively (assuming they do it of course) voting against their preferred candidate in their own seat,m what then is the point of constituencies at all ?
Simply count all the votes,apportion the seats and the Party list does the rest. Yes, it's not "democracy" either but a lot more votes would "count" than under FPTP and it would be as important for the Conservatives to get the vote out in Glasgow as in Gosport.
There'll be plenty (especially Mr Dancer) who will ready the normo-haddock at such a prospect but if vote-swapping abdicates local respresentation where is the logical conclusion ? In any case, vote swapping is entirely based on trust.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
Not when you're near junction 35 of the M1, and the road isn't straight, and boom, you can't see the big board until you get there and the camera is right next to the line where you go from 70 to 50
You would be in favour of using average speed cameras to avoid such issues?
If you are under 65 with no access to the Gov't free cash and need a 1% return on your money in 79 days... 1-100 looks generous
More rubbish. You are actually giving the govt money for 3 years. It's called National Savings. Macmillan invented premium bonds. It's likely the govt will have 15 bn in its coffers and the interest it pays out will go straight back into the economy and pay vat.
Why aren't they being offered to everyone if they're such a great idea ?
Because pensioners are wait for it... Poor. They rely on interest for their income. National Savings are available for everyone. Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
Today's pensioners are, by some considerable distance, by far the richest group in society.
And it is BECAUSE of this that tomorrows pensioners will genuinely be poor, lacking access to any worthwhile pension savings option and likely to have little to zero access to the wide variety of state benefits currently provided to the richest people in Britain (TV license, bus pass, heating bonus, State Pension, etc.)
As a beneficiary of a public sector pension I would have to agree. I do not think that other benefits - TV licence, bus pass, etc should be provided to all pensioners regardless of income.
stodge - OGH consistently reminds us that vote share is irrelevant, it's only seats won that count. However I wouldn't want to be the Lib Dem treasurer waking up on May 8th with a large bill for lost deposits.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
Not when you're near junction 35 of the M1, and the road isn't straight, and boom, you can't see the big board until you get there and the camera is right next to the line where you go from 70 to 50
You would be in favour of using average speed cameras to avoid such issues?
Ha! The section of average speed limiting on the M3 currently is a right bugger. People should be careful what they wish for!
Re: Lib Dem prospects vs Conservatives. In 7 of the 2010 LD seats (vs C) the incumbent is retiring of which 6 are winnable. So I do not see why OGH thinks that the Conservatives gaining 10 is so difficult. IMHO. Now off to a meeting.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
As a pedestrian, I'd like to see punitive fines for cyclists who blatantly ignore the Highway Code. They can't expect drivers to follow the law, and not do the same themselves. In London bicycles are a complete menace.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
I don't think cyclists can be acquitted of breaking the rules entirely.
@OblitusSumMe Average speed cameras work well on some roads, though they can be a nuisance when the car in front has went too fast into one, then overcompensates by dawdling for umpteen miles.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
This country has campaigns against modern efficient light bulbs, wind power generation, GM food, vaccinations and myriad other obviously sensible things.
How can you possibly think a government could successfully convert the public to self drive?
If you are under 65 with no access to the Gov't free cash and need a 1% return on your money in 79 days... 1-100 looks generous
More rubbish. You are actually giving the govt money for 3 years. It's called National Savings. Macmillan invented premium bonds. It's likely the govt will have 15 bn in its coffers and the interest it pays out will go straight back into the economy and pay vat.
Why aren't they being offered to everyone if they're such a great idea ?
Because pensioners are wait for it... Poor. They rely on interest for their income. National Savings are available for everyone. Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
Pensioners poor? Really?!
Having paid off their tiny mortgages for their houses now worth 50 times as much ? With their final salary pensions none of the rest of us have ? With their free bus passes, TV licences and heating allowance ? Claiming their state pension from 65 like I won't be able to?
Of course there are some poor pensioners, but those currently aged 65-80 have had a very favourable set of circumstances that subsequent generations simply will not be able to enjoy.
But they do get out and vote, to their credit, so it's no wonder they get bribed by politicians so much.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
Not when you're near junction 35 of the M1, and the road isn't straight, and boom, you can't see the big board until you get there and the camera is right next to the line where you go from 70 to 50
You would be in favour of using average speed cameras to avoid such issues?
I am. My regular drive from Sheffield to Manchester is mostly on a route with average speed cameras.
Granted I have been clocked a couple of times on the Stocksbridge bypass over the last decade, most recently last summer, but I'm in favour of them.
They are clear, well marked and give drivers enough notice to slow down as not to break the limit.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
This country has campaigns against modern efficient light bulbs, wind power generation, GM food, vaccinations and myriad other obviously sensible things.
How can you possibly think a government could successfully convert the public to self drive?
I'd like to thank you for the correct use of 'myriad'. Usage of 'the myriad of' in place of it seems to be becoming an accepted alternative, but only because so many eejits have used it incorrectly. I know, I know; no-one else cares.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
TSE - Past performance does not equal future results.
As a researcher, for me the 3 big questions, which will decide who comes out on top are:
1) How well will past vote weighting/spiral of silence adjustments work this time round when the political picture is so unstable? 2) UKIP/SNP have done well in attracting the support of 2010 non-voters. How many of these will actually turn out on election day? 3) What, if any, allowances should be made for people who intend to vote but have actually dropped off the register (bearing in mind this seems to mainly be affecting students)?
I think point 2 in relation to UKIP is the most important.
My prediction is that which ever pollster is the most accurate on UKIP's share of the vote will be the most accurate pollster overall on Election Day.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
I'd forgotten just how staggering every one of the top phone pollsters were in forecasting the Tory vote at GE2010. Three of these were absolutely spot on and the other two were out by just 1% ..... remarkable. One thing puzzles me though - much is made of the "Shy Tory" factor. Surely such voters are more likely to admit to their true voting intentions when responding anonymously to a machine online than when answering a real human being's questions at the end of a phone line?
@OblitusSumMe Average speed cameras work well on some roads, though they can be a nuisance when the car in front has went too fast into one, then overcompensates by dawdling for umpteen miles.
I think it is this concept of "dawdling" that is the real nuisance.
I've been overtaken in 20mph zones because the driver behind felt that I was "dawdling" by doing 18 or something. Just calm down.
If I ever find that I'm getting annoyed by someone doing 45mph in a 50mph average speed zone then I realise that I'm not focussed on what is important.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
It's the one where they print a new currency overnight, rather than over a period of months, and in complete secrecy.
I'd forgotten just how staggering every one of the top phone pollsters were in forecasting the Tory vote at GE2010. Three of these were absolutely spot on and the other two were out by just 1% ..... remarkable. One thing puzzles me though - much is made of the "Shy Tory" factor. Surely such voters are more likely to admit to their true voting intentions when responding anonymously to a machine online than when answering a real human being's questions at the end of a phone line?
I have a theory that shy Tories only exist when the Tories are in government.
I think there's evidence it is more shy government supporters, because between 2001 and 2010 some pollsters underestimated Labour
stodge - OGH consistently reminds us that vote share is irrelevant, it's only seats won that count. However I wouldn't want to be the Lib Dem treasurer waking up on May 8th with a large bill for lost deposits.
This enormous haddock (or red herring) is trotted out every so often by those not kindly disposed toward the LDs. 500 lost deposits at £1,000 a time -= £500,000 (yes, a lot of money but it won't bankrupt or break anyone). UKIP and the Greens are going to have their share as well and no one "worries" about the financial implications for them.
The other factor is the threshhold of 5% which will save a lot of LD deposits and I don't assume by-elections as a guide to GE prospects. In East Ham, the LDs probably will lose their deposit and there will be many more lost deposits than in 2010.
None of that matters too much - if insurance against the lost deposits hasn't been obtained, the money to pay off the losses would be.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
I don't pretend to be as smart as Varoufakis but I can think of at least three very plausible and positive alternatives for Greece.
1. Default - the damage to the banks is already done, the loss to the middle class already realised. It's already taken the "hit" of a default and would move immediately into the Rapid Growth phase.
2. The Greek Lobby In the US - Obama has already spoken in support of Greece, that in itself is quite telling and remarkable for a president who doesn't tends to be very conservative in foreign policy.
3. Russia and/or China may intervene. Russia, despite all it's issues still has vast foreign reserves and China may feel the time is right to flex its influence in the European theatre.
@TheScreamingEagles Speeding was one of the things that made me realise London and it's surrounds were not for me. 80 mph between the Ford factory in Dagenham to Rainham in the middle of two lanes of nearly stationary traffic seemed unlikely to offer a long and healthy life to a motorcyclist.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
It's the one where they print a new currency overnight, rather than over a period of months, and in complete secrecy.
They haven't done that - someone would know.
Greece doesn't need a new currency. It cannot be expelled from the Euro, there is no mechanism to do so other than Treaty Change and Greece would have a Veto on such.
They might consider a dual currency model with either paper or cryptocurrency but either is unlikely to be necessary.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Of course they do. From reading various zerohedge threads: 1. Grexit would pull down European banks and would cost the EU significantly more than letting Greece off the hook they placed it on 2. Greece has an alternative source of funding lined up - Russia
The risk of Greece running out of cash in the very near future is real and its large. However, their government seems to be of the clear view that they can't go on any longer with the deal agreed by the previous government. As a practitioner of negotiation I'm finding it fascinating viewing...
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
I don't pretend to be as smart as Varoufakis but I can think of at least three very plausible and positive alternatives for Greece.
1. Default - the damage to the banks is already done, the loss to the middle class already realised. It's already taken the "hit" of a default and would move immediately into the Rapid Growth phase.
2. The Greek Lobby In the US - Obama has already spoken in support of Greece, that in itself is quite telling and remarkable for a president who doesn't tends to be very conservative in foreign policy.
3. Russia and/or China may intervene. Russia, despite all it's issues still has vast foreign reserves and China may feel the time is right to flex its influence in the European theatre.
1. The damage to the banks isn't already done, they're still in business. Greece could default and print a new currency, but it would be short-term devastating, and long-term not as easy as you might think (see rcs1000's posts on enforcement of IMF loans etc.)
2. "The Greek Lobby In the US" isn't a plan. It isn't even a sentence. Are you thinking they'd give them a pile of money? It's hard enough getting Congress to agree to fund their own government, let alone somebody else's. And US influence over European countries doesn't extend to spending large chunks of their tax money on random governments.
@paulwaugh: IDS certainly went for it on BBC, re Ed Miliband: "the man in charge of the Labour party who seems to have avoided tax"
It's garbage of course, but why shouldn't Ed's exact own tactics be used in retaliation against him? Let him sue if he doesn't like it.
But I think it's at least factually accurate.
Labour had some kind of property company that owned all the local constituency buildings and rented them back (claiming on expenses). I don't think that company has paid much, if any, tax for a long-time.
I'm sure it's all entirely legal, clever use of available allowances, etc, etc. But it's basically creaming off expenses into party funds.
And Miliband was the "man in charge" while this was going on.
Having paid off their tiny mortgages for their houses now worth 50 times as much ? With their final salary pensions none of the rest of us have ? With their free bus passes, TV licences and heating allowance ? Claiming their state pension from 65 like I won't be able to?
Of course there are some poor pensioners, but those currently aged 65-80 have had a very favourable set of circumstances that subsequent generations simply will not be able to enjoy.
But they do get out and vote, to their credit, so it's no wonder they get bribed by politicians so much.
Spent last week at a Warner Hotel in Cheshire. Over 600 people staying, 95% of them pensioners (Mrs Stodge and I lowered the average age somewhat). Speaking to one couple (not married so both got their full pension even though they had been living together for years), they were off on another holiday in five or six weeks.
Yes, there are plenty of pensioners who struggle but conversely there are plenty who are doing extremely well. The problems begin when health fails - mobility problems can and are catered for by many venues (cruise ships are excellent) but the fear that must stalk the elderly land is dementia or similar. The wealth soon disappears when the health disappears.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Of course they do. From reading various zerohedge threads: 1. Grexit would pull down European banks and would cost the EU significantly more than letting Greece off the hook they placed it on 2. Greece has an alternative source of funding lined up - Russia
The risk of Greece running out of cash in the very near future is real and its large. However, their government seems to be of the clear view that they can't go on any longer with the deal agreed by the previous government. As a practitioner of negotiation I'm finding it fascinating viewing...
1. Probably not true, the Greek banking contagion is pretty much contained within Greece, if the government were to recapitalise Greek banks with New Drachma it wouldn't really be a big deal. 2. Also probably not true given that the Russian economy is in turmoil.
If you are under 65 with no access to the Gov't free cash and need a 1% return on your money in 79 days... 1-100 looks generous
More rubbish. You are actually giving the govt money for 3 years. It's called National Savings. Macmillan invented premium bonds. It's likely the govt will have 15 bn in its coffers and the interest it pays out will go straight back into the economy and pay vat.
Why aren't they being offered to everyone if they're such a great idea ?
Because pensioners are wait for it... Poor. They rely on interest for their income. National Savings are available for everyone. Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
Pensioners poor? Really?!
Having paid off their tiny mortgages for their houses now worth 50 times as much ? With their final salary pensions none of the rest of us have ? With their free bus passes, TV licences and heating allowance ? Claiming their state pension from 65 like I won't be able to?
Of course there are some poor pensioners, but those currently aged 65-80 have had a very favourable set of circumstances that subsequent generations simply will not be able to enjoy.
But they do get out and vote, to their credit, so it's no wonder they get bribed by politicians so much.
More rubbish. How do YOU propose to pay for your home care when you are infirm? Everything you talk about has been paid in for over a lifetime to help cover the relatively short period left. Income is taxed. Our nation is turning into a nasty nation.
The biggest difference between telephone and online pollsters is the level of support for UKIP.
Currently, UKIP support ranges from 14-23% online, and from 9-17% on the telephone (on average 16.6%, and 12.8% respectively). Unsurprisingly, the lower level of UKIP support found on the telephone works to the advantage of the Conservatives, although not hugely so. That's because not all UKIP supporters are ex-Conservatives, and also, the telephone polling companies tend to find lower levels of centre-right support overall than the online panels (typically 46% for the former, 48% for the latter).
Despite being a UKIP supporter, I think 12.8% is far closer to the kind of vote share UKIP will get on the day than 16.6% is.
Telephone pollsters also tend to show slightly higher levels of support for the Lib Dems than the online panels.
Such is the closeness of the race that these differences can have a big impact in terms of seats.
1. The damage to the banks isn't already done, they're still in business. Greece could default and print a new currency, but it would be short-term devastating, and long-term not as easy as you might think (see rcs1000's posts on enforcement of IMF loans etc.)
2. "The Greek Lobby In the US" isn't a plan. It isn't even a sentence. Are you thinking they'd give them a pile of money? It's hard enough getting Congress to agree to fund their own government, let alone somebody else's. And US influence over European countries doesn't extend to spending large chunks of their tax money on random governments.
3. Intervene and do what?
1. The Greek banks are not functional institutions they are running as managed fronts for the ECB, nothing more. There is no meaningful amount of Greek deposits left. It's already gone, hence the cost of default, the initial "hit" would be tiny. Post default recovery in most real world examples is rapid and substantial.
2. The Greek Lobby (which has a history working with the Jewish lobby) is fairly substantial and well positions to influence American policy. No, they don't spend money on random countries, however they do spend money on countries that return an electoral benefit. I can think of one in particular.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
It's the one where they print a new currency overnight, rather than over a period of months, and in complete secrecy.
They haven't done that - someone would know.
Greece doesn't need a new currency. It cannot be expelled from the Euro, there is no mechanism to do so other than Treaty Change and Greece would have a Veto on such.
They might consider a dual currency model with either paper or cryptocurrency but either is unlikely to be necessary.
They could carry on using the Euro after a default, but their banks would be bust. I suppose people could write off their savings and and open new accounts with Commerzbank or whatever.
The government wouldn't be able to borrow money, so it would to live within its tax receipts, which would have crashed due to the banking crisis taking down pretty much all their functioning businesses.
I suppose the above would be possible and the economy would recover eventually, but it makes regular, old-fashioned austerity sound positively decadent.
"No new statistics on poverty and inequality will be published before the general election, making informed assessment about the coalition cuts impossible "
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
What it does is drive a coach and horses through one of the main arguments for FPTP - the so-called "constituency" link. If people would rather vote for the candidate of their party in a seat hundreds of miles away and then actively (assuming they do it of course) voting against their preferred candidate in their own seat,m what then is the point of constituencies at all ?
Simply count all the votes,apportion the seats and the Party list does the rest. Yes, it's not "democracy" either but a lot more votes would "count" than under FPTP and it would be as important for the Conservatives to get the vote out in Glasgow as in Gosport.
There'll be plenty (especially Mr Dancer) who will ready the normo-haddock at such a prospect but if vote-swapping abdicates local respresentation where is the logical conclusion ? In any case, vote swapping is entirely based on trust.
The point is that the current system is set up as a constituency based approach.
If you don't like it, campaign to change it, perhaps have a referendum to ask the people what they would prefer: the current system or an alternative.
Don't do an end run around the system. That's just being cute.
Telephone pollsters also tend to show slightly higher levels of support for the Lib Dems than the online panels.
The telephone pollsters are thin gruel for the Lib Dems, 7% with the latest IPSOS and spiral of silenced up with ICM to 9%. The recent 10% Populus was their best recent poll and that was online.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
I don't think cyclists can be acquitted of breaking the rules entirely.
I see the (very much Labour affiliated) CWU has been asked by the local branch to fund the Green party candidate standing against Tristram Hunt in the GE. Not a chance of it happening but it does speak to his popularity with the working people of his constituency.
Just saw a snippet of Sky News. Their correspondent stated that the Greeks were not really considering what might happen if the troika don't blink and Greece ends up in dire straits. So, if that does happen, the public mood will turn extremely ugly, exacerbated by surprise and shock. That could be terrible for Tsipras, or, if the public largely blame the EU/the eurozone/the Germans, it could be less than helpful for friendly relations.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
It's the one where they print a new currency overnight, rather than over a period of months, and in complete secrecy.
They haven't done that - someone would know.
Greece doesn't need a new currency. It cannot be expelled from the Euro, there is no mechanism to do so other than Treaty Change and Greece would have a Veto on such.
They might consider a dual currency model with either paper or cryptocurrency but either is unlikely to be necessary.
They could carry on using the Euro after a default, but their banks would be bust. I suppose people could write off their savings and and open new accounts with Commerzbank or whatever.
The government wouldn't be able to borrow money, so it would to live within its tax receipts, which would have crashed due to the banking crisis taking down pretty much all their functioning businesses.
I suppose the above would be possible and the economy would recover eventually, but it makes regular, old-fashioned austerity sound positively decadent.
What savings?
We have known models for defaults. a relatively abrupt hit of between 10% and 20% of the economy and rapidly returning to higher GDP levels within 3 to 5 years.
Greece has already taken the hit if a default, the deposits are all gone. It also has a fiscal surplus and that's not coming from Interest on Deposits and Capital Gains.
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
What it does is drive a coach and horses through one of the main arguments for FPTP - the so-called "constituency" link. If people would rather vote for the candidate of their party in a seat hundreds of miles away and then actively (assuming they do it of course) voting against their preferred candidate in their own seat,m what then is the point of constituencies at all ?
Simply count all the votes,apportion the seats and the Party list does the rest. Yes, it's not "democracy" either but a lot more votes would "count" than under FPTP and it would be as important for the Conservatives to get the vote out in Glasgow as in Gosport.
There'll be plenty (especially Mr Dancer) who will ready the normo-haddock at such a prospect but if vote-swapping abdicates local respresentation where is the logical conclusion ? In any case, vote swapping is entirely based on trust.
The point is that the current system is set up as a constituency based approach.
If you don't like it, campaign to change it, perhaps have a referendum to ask the people what they would prefer: the current system or an alternative.
Don't do an end run around the system. That's just being cute.
How do you think the current system got to be there? It's layer upon layer of of cute end-runs around previous systems.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
.....
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
Will car manufacturers pay the insurance quotes and indemnify the driver when his auto car runs somebody over? Oh I forgot, machines are perfect.
"No new statistics on poverty and inequality will be published before the general election, making informed assessment about the coalition cuts impossible "
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
It goes to show that for some people, the objection to smoking is more about aesthetics, than it is about health.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
.....
As you are a Londoner I guess you cycle or use cabs/tube?
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
Will car manufacturers pay the insurance quotes and indemnify the driver when his auto car runs somebody over? Oh I forgot, machines are perfect.
Mr. F, not so sure. I think it's about banning things and the exercise of apparently moral power to constrain the freedom of those with the temerity to disagree.
Bit disappointed in this & hope you and MSmithson don't start a trend.
As well as poss of total stitch up, I cherish my vote. Lots of pple around the world don't get the chance. Putting my cross where I mean it to go in the secrecy of the ballot is a principle of democracy.
Disappointing to see runner of this site condoning it. All a bit smutty and demeaning to democracy i reckon.
What it does is drive a coach and horses through one of the main arguments for FPTP - the so-called "constituency" link. If people would rather vote for the candidate of their party in a seat hundreds of miles away and then actively (assuming they do it of course) voting against their preferred candidate in their own seat,m what then is the point of constituencies at all ?
Simply count all the votes,apportion the seats and the Party list does the rest. Yes, it's not "democracy" either but a lot more votes would "count" than under FPTP and it would be as important for the Conservatives to get the vote out in Glasgow as in Gosport.
There'll be plenty (especially Mr Dancer) who will ready the normo-haddock at such a prospect but if vote-swapping abdicates local respresentation where is the logical conclusion ? In any case, vote swapping is entirely based on trust.
The point is that the current system is set up as a constituency based approach.
If you don't like it, campaign to change it, perhaps have a referendum to ask the people what they would prefer: the current system or an alternative.
Don't do an end run around the system. That's just being cute.
How do you think the current system got to be there? It's layer upon layer of of cute end-runs around previous systems.
No: it derived from the concept of boroughs sending representatives to Parliament (the shires were somewhat different). There was a big boundary reform to deal with the rotten boroughs in 1832.
The franchise has been regularly extended through parliamentary debate and acquiesence. Boundaries are updated regularly, unless one or more parties decides that their selfish party interests are more important than either (a) the concept of reasonably balanced representation or (b) keeping their promises
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
It goes to show that for some people, the objection to smoking is more about aesthetics, than it is about health.
There is a lot to be said for messaging in the campaign to reduce the incidence of smoking. You can see why hospitals might think that having a shelter full of people puffing away on e-cigs outside the main entrance may not be the best image.
Two outliers, but one is probably just a random blip from a pollster who normally shows the same as other companies, one looks like a typical poll from a pollster who regularly produces polls that show a bigger Labour lead than the pack.
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
It goes to show that for some people, the objection to smoking is more about aesthetics, than it is about health.
I'm not sure its aesthetics, so much as they aren't willing to confront new evidence.
Smoking is bad, therefore it must be eliminated. "Harm reduction" can't possibly be an acceptable solution because, although it may save thousands of lives, and significantly increase quit rates, smoking is bad and therefore must be eliminated.
I would put forward that the reason the Greeks can be so confident is that they have a Plan B and the Troika do not.
Is the Plan B the one where all the banks go bust and people can't afford to import medicine any more?
It's the one where they print a new currency overnight, rather than over a period of months, and in complete secrecy.
They haven't done that - someone would know.
Greece doesn't need a new currency. It cannot be expelled from the Euro, there is no mechanism to do so other than Treaty Change and Greece would have a Veto on such.
They might consider a dual currency model with either paper or cryptocurrency but either is unlikely to be necessary.
They could carry on using the Euro after a default, but their banks would be bust. I suppose people could write off their savings and and open new accounts with Commerzbank or whatever.
The government wouldn't be able to borrow money, so it would to live within its tax receipts, which would have crashed due to the banking crisis taking down pretty much all their functioning businesses.
I suppose the above would be possible and the economy would recover eventually, but it makes regular, old-fashioned austerity sound positively decadent.
What savings?
We have known models for defaults. a relatively abrupt hit of between 10% and 20% of the economy and rapidly returning to higher GDP levels within 3 to 5 years.
Greece has already taken the hit if a default, the deposits are all gone. It also has a fiscal surplus and that's not coming from Interest on Deposits and Capital Gains.
Anyhow say we go with this plan and their economy contracts by 10% or 20%. What do you think that does to government tax receipts? I know there's an argument that this is better for them long-term, but if the voters didn't like austerity, wait until they try the "abrupt hit".
Regarding Greek use of the Euro - not a problem whether they are formal Euro members or not. They even have their own Euro notes (with a Y in the code).
Of course the ECB wouldn't backstop the Greek economy any longer, but you could argue thats not a bad thing.
Telephone pollsters also tend to show slightly higher levels of support for the Lib Dems than the online panels.
The telephone pollsters are thin gruel for the Lib Dems, 7% with the latest IPSOS and spiral of silenced up with ICM to 9%. The recent 10% Populus was their best recent poll and that was online.
The telephone pollsters are typically very bad for the Lib Dems. The online panels are typically dire.
That could make the difference between clinging onto 30 seats, or going below 20.
Among the telephone pollsters, Ashcroft, ICM, and Com Res all show a shift to the Conservatives since the start of the year, MORI shows a shift back in the other direction. But, I suspect if they all polled as frequently as Ashcroft, they'd all show a dead heat between the parties.
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
It goes to show that for some people, the objection to smoking is more about aesthetics, than it is about health.
There is a lot to be said for messaging in the campaign to reduce the incidence of smoking. You can see why hospitals might think that having a shelter full of people puffing away on e-cigs outside the main entrance may not be the best image.
BJOB I was knocked over by a dispatch cyclist who was speeding along a pavement in Soho ..I stepped out of a shop doorway and he hit me..we both went down onto the road..I managed to bend all the spokes in his wheels as he was lying in the gutter swearing at me..perhaps he might keep to the road in future.
No doubt this will be in the Tory manifesto draft by tomorrow morning...
Or alternatively, drivers could obey the law.
It's the variable speed limit ones that pee me off.
You're doing 70. Sign comes up that says you're now in a 50 and there's a camera about 50 yards away that clocks you before you've had the chance to slow down and you get three points on your license for bugger all.
If you're not paying attention to the speed limits, what else are you missing when driving? When you're in charge of a ton of metal travelling at high speed, it's reasonable to expect you to be on your top game at all times.
You don't drive do you ?
Variable speed limits are on a big board on the screen. You get there and it goes from 70 to 50.
The camera is right next to the 50 sign. Most motorists can't slow down that quick.
If the number is on a big board on a screen, you should be able to read it from a fair distance.
One of the reasons that I rarely drive is because I am keenly aware of the responsibility I take on when driving. We live in a nation of Mr Toads who are quite insouciant about the annual death of a small village every year on the roads.
In 100 years' time, the average attitudes to driving today will seem as incomprehensible to our great grandchildren as the 19th century attitudes towards the Opium Wars seem today.
A remarkable statistic is that over the past 50 years, during which time the number of vehicles using Britain's roads has incresed many times over, fatalities have fallen by over 75% from around an horrific total of 8,000 p.a. in the mid '60s to well below 2,000 p.a now. This must be largely as a result of vehicles being so much safer now as well as from the growth in the motorway network over this period.
Not sure about the reasoning here, given the by-products seems to be some sort of vapour rather than actual smoke.
They are concerned that it "normalises smoking" even though all of the evidence actually points in the other directly.
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
I agree. Although, with the caveat, that my family has an interest in one of the most interesting harm reduction companies (not a e-cig company but a regulated product)
It goes to show that for some people, the objection to smoking is more about aesthetics, than it is about health.
There is a lot to be said for messaging in the campaign to reduce the incidence of smoking. You can see why hospitals might think that having a shelter full of people puffing away on e-cigs outside the main entrance may not be the best image.
Reducing harm is preferable to sending a message.
And messaging can play an important role in reducing harm.
Comments
Why would he want to sue?
IDS is keeping the story going, and in the spotlight.
Here's why Mike prefers phone polls.
The top pollsters at the last election were phone pollsters.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-pb-2010-polling-league-table/
^^^^
Def think theres something in this esp with poss return of "shy tories".
Don't worry, you will be old and near death one day.
As a researcher, for me the 3 big questions, which will decide who comes out on top are:
1) How well will past vote weighting/spiral of silence adjustments work this time round when the political picture is so unstable?
2) UKIP/SNP have done well in attracting the support of 2010 non-voters. How many of these will actually turn out on election day?
3) What, if any, allowances should be made for people who intend to vote but have actually dropped off the register (bearing in mind this seems to mainly be affecting students)?
And it is BECAUSE of this that tomorrows pensioners will genuinely be poor, lacking access to any worthwhile pension savings option and likely to have little to zero access to the wide variety of state benefits currently provided to the richest people in Britain (TV license, bus pass, heating bonus, State Pension, etc.)
Simply count all the votes,apportion the seats and the Party list does the rest. Yes, it's not "democracy" either but a lot more votes would "count" than under FPTP and it would be as important for the Conservatives to get the vote out in Glasgow as in Gosport.
There'll be plenty (especially Mr Dancer) who will ready the normo-haddock at such a prospect but if vote-swapping abdicates local respresentation where is the logical conclusion ? In any case, vote swapping is entirely based on trust.
I both regularly bike and (fairly often) drive. The former informs the latter. You are damned right in your analysis – many people either a) don't know the rules of the road or b) wilfully ignore them.
Driving right up to the back of cyclists, cutting them up so badly that they are essentially pushing them off the road, tail-gating other cars so, if one stops, they go straight into the back of them.
Self-driving cars should solve much of the problem – as they are not subject to the Mr Toad tendency and will be programmed to keep a reasonable distance at all times.
In 7 of the 2010 LD seats (vs C) the incumbent is retiring of which 6 are winnable. So I do not see why OGH thinks that the Conservatives gaining 10 is so difficult. IMHO. Now off to a meeting.
Average speed cameras work well on some roads, though they can be a nuisance when the car in front has went too fast into one, then overcompensates by dawdling for umpteen miles.
How can you possibly think a government could successfully convert the public to self drive?
Having paid off their tiny mortgages for their houses now worth 50 times as much ?
With their final salary pensions none of the rest of us have ?
With their free bus passes, TV licences and heating allowance ?
Claiming their state pension from 65 like I won't be able to?
Of course there are some poor pensioners, but those currently aged 65-80 have had a very favourable set of circumstances that subsequent generations simply will not be able to enjoy.
But they do get out and vote, to their credit, so it's no wonder they get bribed by politicians so much.
Granted I have been clocked a couple of times on the Stocksbridge bypass over the last decade, most recently last summer, but I'm in favour of them.
They are clear, well marked and give drivers enough notice to slow down as not to break the limit.
My prediction is that which ever pollster is the most accurate on UKIP's share of the vote will be the most accurate pollster overall on Election Day.
Scariest place to drive is in Russia. Where every lane is treated as an overtaking lane, even the ones that are for oncoming traffic.
Three of these were absolutely spot on and the other two were out by just 1% ..... remarkable.
One thing puzzles me though - much is made of the "Shy Tory" factor. Surely such voters are more likely to admit to their true voting intentions when responding anonymously to a machine online than when answering a real human being's questions at the end of a phone line?
I've been overtaken in 20mph zones because the driver behind felt that I was "dawdling" by doing 18 or something. Just calm down.
If I ever find that I'm getting annoyed by someone doing 45mph in a 50mph average speed zone then I realise that I'm not focussed on what is important.
They haven't done that - someone would know.
And they don't stop when they get to the border.
I think there's evidence it is more shy government supporters, because between 2001 and 2010 some pollsters underestimated Labour
Basically they don't like the thought of people enjoying themselves.
The other factor is the threshhold of 5% which will save a lot of LD deposits and I don't assume by-elections as a guide to GE prospects. In East Ham, the LDs probably will lose their deposit and there will be many more lost deposits than in 2010.
None of that matters too much - if insurance against the lost deposits hasn't been obtained, the money to pay off the losses would be.
1. Default - the damage to the banks is already done, the loss to the middle class already realised. It's already taken the "hit" of a default and would move immediately into the Rapid Growth phase.
2. The Greek Lobby In the US - Obama has already spoken in support of Greece, that in itself is quite telling and remarkable for a president who doesn't tends to be very conservative in foreign policy.
3. Russia and/or China may intervene. Russia, despite all it's issues still has vast foreign reserves and China may feel the time is right to flex its influence in the European theatre.
Speeding was one of the things that made me realise London and it's surrounds were not for me.
80 mph between the Ford factory in Dagenham to Rainham in the middle of two lanes of nearly stationary traffic seemed unlikely to offer a long and healthy life to a motorcyclist.
They might consider a dual currency model with either paper or cryptocurrency but either is unlikely to be necessary.
1. Grexit would pull down European banks and would cost the EU significantly more than letting Greece off the hook they placed it on
2. Greece has an alternative source of funding lined up - Russia
The risk of Greece running out of cash in the very near future is real and its large. However, their government seems to be of the clear view that they can't go on any longer with the deal agreed by the previous government. As a practitioner of negotiation I'm finding it fascinating viewing...
I'm not a smoker, but I know people who have quit using e-cigs.
Banning them is ludicrous.
2. "The Greek Lobby In the US" isn't a plan. It isn't even a sentence. Are you thinking they'd give them a pile of money? It's hard enough getting Congress to agree to fund their own government, let alone somebody else's. And US influence over European countries doesn't extend to spending large chunks of their tax money on random governments.
3. Intervene and do what?
Labour had some kind of property company that owned all the local constituency buildings and rented them back (claiming on expenses). I don't think that company has paid much, if any, tax for a long-time.
I'm sure it's all entirely legal, clever use of available allowances, etc, etc. But it's basically creaming off expenses into party funds.
And Miliband was the "man in charge" while this was going on.
Yes, there are plenty of pensioners who struggle but conversely there are plenty who are doing extremely well. The problems begin when health fails - mobility problems can and are catered for by many venues (cruise ships are excellent) but the fear that must stalk the elderly land is dementia or similar. The wealth soon disappears when the health disappears.
2. Also probably not true given that the Russian economy is in turmoil.
Currently, UKIP support ranges from 14-23% online, and from 9-17% on the telephone (on average 16.6%, and 12.8% respectively). Unsurprisingly, the lower level of UKIP support found on the telephone works to the advantage of the Conservatives, although not hugely so. That's because not all UKIP supporters are ex-Conservatives, and also, the telephone polling companies tend to find lower levels of centre-right support overall than the online panels (typically 46% for the former, 48% for the latter).
Despite being a UKIP supporter, I think 12.8% is far closer to the kind of vote share UKIP will get on the day than 16.6% is.
Telephone pollsters also tend to show slightly higher levels of support for the Lib Dems than the online panels.
Such is the closeness of the race that these differences can have a big impact in terms of seats.
2. The Greek Lobby (which has a history working with the Jewish lobby) is fairly substantial and well positions to influence American policy. No, they don't spend money on random countries, however they do spend money on countries that return an electoral benefit. I can think of one in particular.
3. Intervene as a source of capital.
The counterpoint is probably Tristram Hunt.
The government wouldn't be able to borrow money, so it would to live within its tax receipts, which would have crashed due to the banking crisis taking down pretty much all their functioning businesses.
I suppose the above would be possible and the economy would recover eventually, but it makes regular, old-fashioned austerity sound positively decadent.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/18/we-cant-vote-welfare-reform-out-of-date-data
If you don't like it, campaign to change it, perhaps have a referendum to ask the people what they would prefer: the current system or an alternative.
Don't do an end run around the system. That's just being cute.
Interesting view. Can you let me know how many deaths are caused by cyclists each year in London versus how many are caused by cars?
We have known models for defaults. a relatively abrupt hit of between 10% and 20% of the economy and rapidly returning to higher GDP levels within 3 to 5 years.
Greece has already taken the hit if a default, the deposits are all gone. It also has a fiscal surplus and that's not coming from Interest on Deposits and Capital Gains.
Oh I forgot, machines are perfect.
The Guardian can just carry on with it's normal fare of wild assertions and mendacious analysis
How Tories could remain the largest party (part one): Ukip support drops
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/feb/12/how-tories-could-remain-the-largest-party-part-one-ukip-support-drops
How Tories could remain the largest party (part two): vote green, get blue
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/feb/18/how-tories-could-remain-the-largest-party-part-two-vote-green-get-blue
The franchise has been regularly extended through parliamentary debate and acquiesence. Boundaries are updated regularly, unless one or more parties decides that their selfish party interests are more important than either (a) the concept of reasonably balanced representation or (b) keeping their promises
No real cute end runs in sight
Two outliers, but one is probably just a random blip from a pollster who normally shows the same as other companies, one looks like a typical poll from a pollster who regularly produces polls that show a bigger Labour lead than the pack.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9255
Smoking is bad, therefore it must be eliminated. "Harm reduction" can't possibly be an acceptable solution because, although it may save thousands of lives, and significantly increase quit rates, smoking is bad and therefore must be eliminated.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/greek-banks-said-to-need-more-emergency-funds-as-deposits-drop
Anyhow say we go with this plan and their economy contracts by 10% or 20%. What do you think that does to government tax receipts? I know there's an argument that this is better for them long-term, but if the voters didn't like austerity, wait until they try the "abrupt hit".
Of course the ECB wouldn't backstop the Greek economy any longer, but you could argue thats not a bad thing.
That could make the difference between clinging onto 30 seats, or going below 20.
Among the telephone pollsters, Ashcroft, ICM, and Com Res all show a shift to the Conservatives since the start of the year, MORI shows a shift back in the other direction. But, I suspect if they all polled as frequently as Ashcroft, they'd all show a dead heat between the parties.
What's crazy about it?