Off on holiday now. I mention it because I get messages asking if I am dead when I go dark for a while. It's not an unreasonable assumption, but not (yet) valid on this occasion.
I have convinced Mrs DA that travel to La Corse via BEV is completely feasible. I will return either divorced or with the doubters silenced.
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.
Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.
Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.
That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.
Cuba, I guess. Hopefully the WC might keep him on the reservation for the summer.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I'm going to guess that Malc is not particularly convinced of the efficacy of previous Scottish MPs for UK parties in having a say for Scotland.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).
However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way. Probably that would be illegal now.
When I was a student in Aberystwyth in the ‘90s, we definitely didn’t keep leaderboards of times for each leg of a trip to Cardiff or Shrewsbury.
Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury wouldn't be too bad, surely.In-laws have a 'holiday' lodge' in Anglesey and if we pick our time we used to do very well Beaumaris to Shrewsbury. Did get held up behind two flocks of sheep once, though!
What will be really interesting will be the approach of the nationalist parties to immigration. Anyone welcome except the English?
Scotland is full of English people enjoying a much better lifestyle and very welcome they are too. Luckily they can sell their properties in England and live a great life up here.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I'm going to guess that Malc is not particularly convinced of the efficacy of previous Scottish MPs for UK parties in having a say for Scotland.
Lickspittle turncoats is the most civil I could use KLE
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
Off on holiday now. I mention it because I get messages asking if I am dead when I go dark for a while. It's not an unreasonable assumption, but not (yet) valid on this occasion.
I have convinced Mrs DA that travel to La Corse via BEV is completely feasible. I will return either divorced or with the doubters silenced.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
Indeed so, a great example of what a positive effect low taxes can have on an economy.
And not wasting billions on stupid shit like ICBMs and aircraft carriers.
Off on holiday now. I mention it because I get messages asking if I am dead when I go dark for a while. It's not an unreasonable assumption, but not (yet) valid on this occasion.
I have convinced Mrs DA that travel to La Corse via BEV is completely feasible. I will return either divorced or with the doubters silenced.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).
However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Just move the border to the east of the Marches rail line.
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.
Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.
Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.
That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.
Cuba, I guess. Hopefully the WC might keep him on the reservation for the summer.
Best idea, chuck DJT in a sound proof nuclear bunker without any access to the outside world other than a button to order KFC and one of those fake ACME detonation boxes you used to get in the road runner cartoons to play with. Day release negotiable once Iran have been knocked out the WC
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The number of members in a legislature typically does not scale linearly. It roughly scales by the cube root of the population. But I’ve not done the maths, so I don’t know where that leaves Wales or Scotland.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
Boris Johnson would beg to differ. He put on lots.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
Boris Johnson would beg to differ. He put on lots.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
Huh, I assumed the number had been increased so that the LDs and Conservatives still manage to hold onto at least one seat in May.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The number of members in a legislature typically does not scale linearly. It roughly scales by the cube root of the population. But I’ve not done the maths, so I don’t know where that leaves Wales or Scotland.
To throw another example into the mix, the Constitution of Ireland requires that there is one TD for every 20,000-30,000 population. At present they tend to run with as few TDs as possible, right at the 30,000 limit.
But then the Dail has to deal with foreign affairs and other matters that the Senedd doesn't have within its remit.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
The Tories did run 5 candidates in Northern Ireland in 2024. They got nowhere, obviously, but I find it encouraging they even bothered.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).
However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way. Probably that would be illegal now.
How long would it have taken at the regulation 20 (where applicable)?
On the USA for a moment, if(when) the war in Iran ends (or enters a quieter phase), will Trump's numbers pick up? People can be very keen to return to the fold after all.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).
However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way. Probably that would be illegal now.
How long would it have taken at the regulation 20 (where applicable)?
When the M4 was first built, there was an unofficial contest to record the fastest time from Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle. Target time was 1 hour.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I'm going to guess that Malc is not particularly convinced of the efficacy of previous Scottish MPs for UK parties in having a say for Scotland.
Lickspittle turncoats is the most civil I could use KLE
New Hampshire House of Represenatives - 400 New Hampshire population - 1.4 million.
That is a crazy ratio.
There one I like is Greenland, which has 31 members for 40 000 voters. If it ever becomes independent, every adult will be a cabinet minister
For the Council of the Isles of Scilly I believe during their last electoral review the locals asked for 2 councillors for each of the 4 smallest islands (some of which have fewer than 100 people on them, so 50-60 electors probably), partly on the basis that you cannot get from them to the most populous island easily in Winter. The LGBCE did not go for it, and they are stuck with one each.
I have, however, seen a contested election in a parish with 50 electors before, which is impressive but also may speak to some local disharmony.
On the USA for a moment, if(when) the war in Iran ends (or enters a quieter phase), will Trump's numbers pick up? People can be very keen to return to the fold after all.
There will still be a bolus of inflation feeding through.
I think it very likely we will have separatist First Ministers of the devolved nations, but before @HYUFD combusts and fires up his tank, I think it is very unlikely Independence will be the outcome
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
New Hampshire House of Represenatives - 400 New Hampshire population - 1.4 million.
That is a crazy ratio.
There one I like is Greenland, which has 31 members for 40 000 voters. If it ever becomes independent, every adult will be a cabinet minister
For the Council of the Isles of Scilly I believe during their last electoral review the locals asked for 2 councillors for each of the 4 smallest islands (some of which have fewer than 100 people on them, so 50-60 electors probably), partly on the basis that you cannot get from them to the most populous island easily in Winter. The LGBCE did not go for it, and they are stuck with one each.
I have, however, seen a contested election in a parish with 50 electors before, which is impressive but also may speak to some local disharmony.
Wasn't it 'not uncommon' in rural Wales to haver two Chapels, one as a result of a 'Split". And the attenders at the 'Splitter' were no longer welcome at the original?
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
Extending the range of liquid fuel missiles (or the throw weight of orbital rockets) is a *standard thing*
I struggle to thing of a moderately long lived rocket program where they didn’t add barrel sections to the file and oxidiser tanks and update the engines a bit.
This is because, while liquid fuels rockets are very sophisticated at the top of each stage (guidance, structure) and at the bottom (thrust structure, engines, plumbing), the middle bit is fairly simple metal tube.
So nearly everyone tries stretching their rockets - changing the diameter is much harder, since it involves new tooling etc. You end up building a new rocket.
The quality of the work can vary - the original German V-2 was elongated by the Russians and formed the basis of the Scud missile. Which was bodge stretched by the Iraqis under Saddam. And the North Koreans tried building an orbital launcher/ICBM by stretching tanks and clustering* stages.
Uprating engines is the limit on this. You need a thrust to weight ratio of at least 1.2 to launch effectively. That is, your first stage rocket thrust has to be 120% of the weight of the rocket. At least. There’s a lot of margin in most liquid fuelled rocket engines. The way to get more thrust is usually to increase chamber pressure - either reduce margin (reliability) or make the chamber walls thicker.
The Iranians will keep extending the range of their missiles until they can hit all of Europe is just a matter of time, money and whether they are stopped or not.
*Clustering is much harder to get to work - it seems simple to tie a bunch of rocket stages together, side by side. But it isn’t.
Is there a market on what efforts Orban will go to to overturn the result a la Trump or Bolosonaro if he loses, as seems eminently possible?
I am assuming, incidentally, that he is engaging in vote rigging but it doesn't look as though that will save him on its own.
That the question can reasonably be asked is a damning enough one in its own right.
He seems to have a false-flag operation going on the Turkstream pipeline ,but unhelpfully for him, Serbian intelligence have denied it is the Ukrainians
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
needed to overwhelm the number of parasites in the house of lords who we couldn't get rid of
Is there a market on what efforts Orban will go to to overturn the result a la Trump or Bolosonaro if he loses, as seems eminently possible?
I am assuming, incidentally, that he is engaging in vote rigging but it doesn't look as though that will save him on its own.
That the question can reasonably be asked is a damning enough one in its own right.
He seems to have a false-flag operation going on the Turkstream pipeline ,but unhelpfully for him, Serbian intelligence have denied it is the Ukrainians
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).
However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way. Probably that would be illegal now.
How long would it have taken at the regulation 20 (where applicable)?
When the M4 was first built, there was an unofficial contest to record the fastest time from Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle. Target time was 1 hour.
I suspect Dura Ace was in some way involved.
You remind me that, when the first Severn bridge was built, my family lived in Bristol. One Sunday evening we took a little trip by car out to Severn Beach to see the new bridge, and owing to difficulty with correct lanes ended up with a trip to (IIRC) Newport.
Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic over Ukrainian drone capability extending to 80km behind the frontline, in mass, targeting logistics, etc. I wonder whether that also explains the large increase in Russian artillery that the Ukrainians have recently claimed to have destroyed?
Surely Russia is a more immediate threat than Iran when it comes to missiles. They certainly have missiles capable of reaching the UK and are probably more likely to use them.
Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic over Ukrainian drone capability extending to 80km behind the frontline, in mass, targeting logistics, etc. I wonder whether that also explains the large increase in Russian artillery that the Ukrainians have recently claimed to have destroyed?
That would make sense. The Russians have burnt through their stockpile of Self Propelled Guns (SPG) and are using wheeled guns and old tanks, with a smattering of new production.
Not very mobile.
Note that at even 5km, the Ukrainians are relying on real time video. Which can only be supported by high capacity satellite data. Which is Starlink only (for the moment) - OneWeb doesn’t have the bandwidth, and the terminals are too expensive and heavy for drones.
Meanwhile, at Ariane and ESA, they are still trying to sell the idea that a mega constellation isn’t needed for Europe.
The second American constellation with this kind of capabilities (Amazon) will go live sometime this year or next. The Chinese are following.
Brexit was a bit of a disaster for Scottish and indeed Welsh independence. Whilst the UK was in the EU the nationalists could pretend that they would get some sort of fast entry into the EU on independence and that everything would be fine. That is no longer possible. Scotland and Wales have the choice of being in the UK single market or the EU one. I suspect most nationalists would choose the latter but there is a problem because the rUK market (basically England) is a far more dominant share of both exports and imports than the EU.
So the problems faced by the nationalists are (a) what currency they are going to use and (b) what market they want to be in. If they seek to join the EU we have NI type borders and problems writ large making trade much more difficult and expensive with our dominant neighbour. In relation to (a) they have to persuade the EU that having your monetary policy run by a country not in the EU is acceptable to them. This seems unlikely. Alternatively they have to go to the Euro but that requires a lot of fiscal discipline (just because France gets away with it smaller countries should not assume they would be held to account) and the bringing into alignment of our public services and our tax base.
Retaining Sterling is tricky too. The guarantee of the Bank of England would not be available for Scottish based financial institutions. Most of them moved the last time this was threatened doing huge damage to our tax base but there are some significant ones left. We would have no control or say over interest rates (which are likely to be even more focused on house prices in the south of England) and borrowing is likely to be significantly more expensive, possibly prohibitively so.
In short independence in the 2030s is going to be significantly harder and a tougher sell than it was in 2014. If we got a Reform government anything might be possible but short of that it seems very unlikely.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I sense the Scottish voters who voted Lab in 2024 to save Grangemouth, reduce fuel bills, turn Aberdeen based GB Energy into a clean energy powerhouse employing thousands and for justice for WASPI women may feel a bit short changed in the influence department.
Brexit was a bit of a disaster for Scottish and indeed Welsh independence. Whilst the UK was in the EU the nationalists could pretend that they would get some sort of fast entry into the EU on independence and that everything would be fine. That is no longer possible. Scotland and Wales have the choice of being in the UK single market or the EU one. I suspect most nationalists would choose the latter but there is a problem because the rUK market (basically England) is a far more dominant share of both exports and imports than the EU.
So the problems faced by the nationalists are (a) what currency they are going to use and (b) what market they want to be in. If they seek to join the EU we have NI type borders and problems writ large making trade much more difficult and expensive with our dominant neighbour. In relation to (a) they have to persuade the EU that having your monetary policy run by a country not in the EU is acceptable to them. This seems unlikely. Alternatively they have to go to the Euro but that requires a lot of fiscal discipline (just because France gets away with it smaller countries should not assume they would be held to account) and the bringing into alignment of our public services and our tax base.
Retaining Sterling is tricky too. The guarantee of the Bank of England would not be available for Scottish based financial institutions. Most of them moved the last time this was threatened doing huge damage to our tax base but there are some significant ones left. We would have no control or say over interest rates (which are likely to be even more focused on house prices in the south of England) and borrowing is likely to be significantly more expensive, possibly prohibitively so.
In short independence in the 2030s is going to be significantly harder and a tougher sell than it was in 2014. If we got a Reform government anything might be possible but short of that it seems very unlikely.
Makes one wonder why you Yoons just don't let the Indy hard sell referendum go ahead and settle the issue for several generations.
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?
My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.
Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
Geographic assimilation plays quite a part too. North east Wales looks to Liverpool not Cardiff.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
The Tories did run 5 candidates in Northern Ireland in 2024. They got nowhere, obviously, but I find it encouraging they even bothered.
Yes, I think it speaks well to them too. Shows they care.
Brexit was a bit of a disaster for Scottish and indeed Welsh independence. Whilst the UK was in the EU the nationalists could pretend that they would get some sort of fast entry into the EU on independence and that everything would be fine. That is no longer possible. Scotland and Wales have the choice of being in the UK single market or the EU one. I suspect most nationalists would choose the latter but there is a problem because the rUK market (basically England) is a far more dominant share of both exports and imports than the EU.
So the problems faced by the nationalists are (a) what currency they are going to use and (b) what market they want to be in. If they seek to join the EU we have NI type borders and problems writ large making trade much more difficult and expensive with our dominant neighbour. In relation to (a) they have to persuade the EU that having your monetary policy run by a country not in the EU is acceptable to them. This seems unlikely. Alternatively they have to go to the Euro but that requires a lot of fiscal discipline (just because France gets away with it smaller countries should not assume they would be held to account) and the bringing into alignment of our public services and our tax base.
Retaining Sterling is tricky too. The guarantee of the Bank of England would not be available for Scottish based financial institutions. Most of them moved the last time this was threatened doing huge damage to our tax base but there are some significant ones left. We would have no control or say over interest rates (which are likely to be even more focused on house prices in the south of England) and borrowing is likely to be significantly more expensive, possibly prohibitively so.
In short independence in the 2030s is going to be significantly harder and a tougher sell than it was in 2014. If we got a Reform government anything might be possible but short of that it seems very unlikely.
Makes one wonder why you Yoons just don't let the Indy hard sell referendum go ahead and settle the issue for several generations.
Well, putting aside the economic damage, the evidence of the last one is that it settled the matter for something less than 5 years. There is a significant minority in Scotland who will always support independence. They don't care about the subtleties of economics because they believe that in the long run Scotland would thrive as Ireland eventually has. But getting a majority for that is not going to be easy.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
Is there a market on what efforts Orban will go to to overturn the result a la Trump or Bolosonaro if he loses, as seems eminently possible?
I am assuming, incidentally, that he is engaging in vote rigging but it doesn't look as though that will save him on its own.
That the question can reasonably be asked is a damning enough one in its own right.
He seems to have a false-flag operation going on the Turkstream pipeline ,but unhelpfully for him, Serbian intelligence have denied it is the Ukrainians
Just an Orban legend.
Hopefully one that will mean he is not the Viktor.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
Brexit was a bit of a disaster for Scottish and indeed Welsh independence. Whilst the UK was in the EU the nationalists could pretend that they would get some sort of fast entry into the EU on independence and that everything would be fine. That is no longer possible. Scotland and Wales have the choice of being in the UK single market or the EU one. I suspect most nationalists would choose the latter but there is a problem because the rUK market (basically England) is a far more dominant share of both exports and imports than the EU.
So the problems faced by the nationalists are (a) what currency they are going to use and (b) what market they want to be in. If they seek to join the EU we have NI type borders and problems writ large making trade much more difficult and expensive with our dominant neighbour. In relation to (a) they have to persuade the EU that having your monetary policy run by a country not in the EU is acceptable to them. This seems unlikely. Alternatively they have to go to the Euro but that requires a lot of fiscal discipline (just because France gets away with it smaller countries should not assume they would be held to account) and the bringing into alignment of our public services and our tax base.
Retaining Sterling is tricky too. The guarantee of the Bank of England would not be available for Scottish based financial institutions. Most of them moved the last time this was threatened doing huge damage to our tax base but there are some significant ones left. We would have no control or say over interest rates (which are likely to be even more focused on house prices in the south of England) and borrowing is likely to be significantly more expensive, possibly prohibitively so.
In short independence in the 2030s is going to be significantly harder and a tougher sell than it was in 2014. If we got a Reform government anything might be possible but short of that it seems very unlikely.
Makes one wonder why you Yoons just don't let the Indy hard sell referendum go ahead and settle the issue for several generations.
Well, putting aside the economic damage, the evidence of the last one is that it settled the matter for something less than 5 years. There is a significant minority in Scotland who will always support independence. They don't care about the subtleties of economics because they believe that in the long run Scotland would thrive as Ireland eventually has. But getting a majority for that is not going to be easy.
The matter wasn't settled the moment Cameron announced a referendum on EU membership, which I make something less than 18 months.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
The Iranians have no reason to open it anyway. It’s their leverage. If I was them I’d keep it closed and just allow some ships out after a tariff is paid.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that meanUnlikely,it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Unlikley
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that meanUnlikely,it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Unlikley
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
You cannot suddenly cut supply of a product with highly inelastic demand by around 20% (more, given the chaos in Russia) and expect there not to be shortages.
Exactly where and how they will manifest themselves is a different question.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
Not to mention state. And all three have significant tax raising powers. And can borrow money.
The Federal Government explicitly doesn’t back their debt, so the feedback mechanism between debt, voters, taxes and politicians works. Most of the time.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
They’ve proved remarkably resilient so far
I think you’re correct
I think the problem with the cureent situation is media demands for instant results and Trumps ramping of the same. Bringinf Iran to the table was always going to be a lengthy event, The Israelis have a more measured pace to the whole thing so I tend to take their view as more reliable than say Hegseth,
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
The Iranians have no reason to open it anyway. It’s their leverage. If I was them I’d keep it closed and just allow some ships out after a tariff is paid.
Maximum leverage on trump
It has been said that the IRGC is missing payroll, though. Not surprising since Iranian banking has been cut off by their neighbours, and they are not receiving oil revenue.
Surely Russia is a more immediate threat than Iran when it comes to missiles. They certainly have missiles capable of reaching the UK and are probably more likely to use them.
Russia has submarines capable of firing missiles at the UK from ranges where they would be very difficult to intercept and be able to hit with high accuracy. None of that is true of Iran.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that meanUnlikely,it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Unlikley
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
In the UK the Executive are members of the legislature, and so the legislature needs to be larger than in a system like the US where the Executive is separate from the legislature.
Also, it's been argued that the US House of Representatives should be a lot larger, and it would ameliorate some of their political problems if they had more Representatives with smaller districts. The US used to increase the number of Representatives as the population increased, but then fixed the number sometime in the 19th century
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that meanUnlikely,it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Unlikley
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
You cannot suddenly cut supply of a product with highly inelastic demand by around 20% (more, given the chaos in Russia) and expect there not to be shortages.
Exactly where and how they will manifest themselves is a different question.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that meanUnlikely,it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
Unlikley
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
You cannot suddenly cut supply of a product with highly inelastic demand by around 20% (more, given the chaos in Russia) and expect there not to be shortages.
Exactly where and how they will manifest themselves is a different question.
Of course you can. It means we will get highly priced oil whereas poor countries in say Africa or Asia wont get any becuase they dont have enough money. It's not pretty but its what happens,
Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic over Ukrainian drone capability extending to 80km behind the frontline, in mass, targeting logistics, etc. I wonder whether that also explains the large increase in Russian artillery that the Ukrainians have recently claimed to have destroyed?
Yes the latest Ukranian drones can carry a higher payload further than the previous versions, and further than today’s Russian drones. It’s causing a lot of problems for Russian logistics, and they’ve lost quite a few air defence radars and command posts in recent weeks.
If they can’t defend targets as strategic as Novorossiysk port, there’s clearly not a lot left of air defence capability close to the front line. What AD remains is mostly protecting the city of Moscow, and outside the capital is very thinly spread.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
They’ve proved remarkably resilient so far
I think you’re correct
I think the problem with the cureent situation is media demands for instant results and Trumps ramping of the same. Bringinf Iran to the table was always going to be a lengthy event, The Israelis have a more measured pace to the whole thing so I tend to take their view as more reliable than say Hegseth,
Iran was already at the table when the war started, and because of the unrest at home plus their economic headwinds (including an impending water crisis) were very keen to talk in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Whether the offer to hand over all fissile material was serious or not the fact it was even made suggests they were in dire straits (no pun intended).
They're actually less likely to negotiate than they were two months ago. The leadership has been eliminated and replaced by something more hardline. The closure of Hormuz has shown them they can be the biggest bullies in the room. America has looked totally helpless and hapless, while their president's descent into madness while his Vice President continues to give off massive small dick energy via rampaging xenophobia at all America's longstanding allies has severely weakened their international influence. To the extent the Gulf States are getting into bed with Ukraine for the resources they need.
Why would they give that up? Money, you say. Well, they're in the position where it's not just about money any more, and I'm sure China will drop them a few bob to keep afloat. Meanwhile, they can gain great amusement from watching the Great Satan self-immolate.
It will be a disaster for the Iranian people, but they never cared about them anyway as shown by their mass murders in the aftermath of the protests earlier this year.
I think you are unduly bullish. Iran right now holds a straight flush. Has anyone got any aces to play? At this moment, I don't see them.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
I see it's not just me having strange problems with Vanilla loading. Anyone know what's going on?
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
The Iranians have no reason to open it anyway. It’s their leverage. If I was them I’d keep it closed and just allow some ships out after a tariff is paid.
Maximum leverage on trump
It has been said that the IRGC is missing payroll, though. Not surprising since Iranian banking has been cut off by their neighbours, and they are not receiving oil revenue.
It’s said that there’s somewhere around $300bn of Iranian money in Dubai, mostly sitting there to avoid international sanctions on Iranian banks.
Now perhaps if they were to stop bombing Dubai, and reopen the shipping lanes…
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
Not to mention state. And all three have significant tax raising powers. And can borrow money.
The Federal Government explicitly doesn’t back their debt, so the feedback mechanism between debt, voters, taxes and politicians works. Most of the time.
Most of the problems with fraud that are being unearthed at the moment appear to be related to Federal programmes administered by the States.
Funnily enough, when those deciding who gets the money don’t have to raise it themselves, you quickly end up with rampant fraud.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
They’ve proved remarkably resilient so far
I think you’re correct
I think the problem with the cureent situation is media demands for instant results and Trumps ramping of the same. Bringinf Iran to the table was always going to be a lengthy event, The Israelis have a more measured pace to the whole thing so I tend to take their view as more reliable than say Hegseth,
Iran was already at the table when the war started, and because of the unrest at home plus their economic headwinds (including an impending water crisis) were very keen to talk in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Whether the offer to hand over all fissile material was serious or not the fact it was even made suggests they were in dire straits (no pun intended).
They're actually less likely to negotiate than they were two months ago. The leadership has been eliminated and replaced by something more hardline. The closure of Hormuz has shown them they can be the biggest bullies in the room. America has looked totally helpless and hapless, while their president's descent into madness while his Vice President continues to give off massive small dick energy via rampaging xenophobia at all America's longstanding allies has severely weakened their international influence. To the extent the Gulf States are getting into bed with Ukraine for the resources they need.
Why would they give that up? Money, you say. Well, they're in the position where it's not just about money any more, and I'm sure China will drop them a few bob to keep afloat. Meanwhile, they can gain great amusement from watching the Great Satan self-immolate.
It will be a disaster for the Iranian people, but they never cared about them anyway as shown by their mass murders in the aftermath of the protests earlier this year.
I think you are unduly bullish. Iran right now holds a straight flush. Has anyone got any aces to play? At this moment, I don't see them.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
They’ve proved remarkably resilient so far
I think you’re correct
I think the problem with the cureent situation is media demands for instant results and Trumps ramping of the same. Bringinf Iran to the table was always going to be a lengthy event, The Israelis have a more measured pace to the whole thing so I tend to take their view as more reliable than say Hegseth,
Iran was already at the table when the war started, and because of the unrest at home plus their economic headwinds (including an impending water crisis) were very keen to talk in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Whether the offer to hand over all fissile material was serious or not the fact it was even made suggests they were in dire straits (no pun intended).
They're actually less likely to negotiate than they were two months ago. The leadership has been eliminated and replaced by something more hardline. The closure of Hormuz has shown them they can be the biggest bullies in the room. America has looked totally helpless and hapless, while their president's descent into madness while his Vice President continues to give off massive small dick energy via rampaging xenophobia at all America's longstanding allies has severely weakened their international influence. To the extent the Gulf States are getting into bed with Ukraine for the resources they need.
Why would they give that up? Money, you say. Well, they're in the position where it's not just about money any more, and I'm sure China will drop them a few bob to keep afloat. Meanwhile, they can gain great amusement from watching the Great Satan self-immolate.
It will be a disaster for the Iranian people, but they never cared about them anyway as shown by their mass murders in the aftermath of the protests earlier this year.
I think you are unduly bullish. Iran right now holds a straight flush. Has anyone got any aces to play? At this moment, I don't see them.
I think that the USA can win this. But, the means of winning it are likely to impose horrific levels of suffering, upon non-combatants.
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Does that mean it’s no longer necessary to capture Kharg Island?
It means, alarmingly, that the Iranians have no reason at all to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as they would not benefit from it (unless of course their toll systems can be put into operation).
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
On the other hand, Iran runs out of money as do Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis,
I have a feeling we will run out of oil before they run out of money.
They’ve proved remarkably resilient so far
I think you’re correct
I think the problem with the cureent situation is media demands for instant results and Trumps ramping of the same. Bringinf Iran to the table was always going to be a lengthy event, The Israelis have a more measured pace to the whole thing so I tend to take their view as more reliable than say Hegseth,
Iran was already at the table when the war started, and because of the unrest at home plus their economic headwinds (including an impending water crisis) were very keen to talk in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Whether the offer to hand over all fissile material was serious or not the fact it was even made suggests they were in dire straits (no pun intended).
They're actually less likely to negotiate than they were two months ago. The leadership has been eliminated and replaced by something more hardline. The closure of Hormuz has shown them they can be the biggest bullies in the room. America has looked totally helpless and hapless, while their president's descent into madness while his Vice President continues to give off massive small dick energy via rampaging xenophobia at all America's longstanding allies has severely weakened their international influence. To the extent the Gulf States are getting into bed with Ukraine for the resources they need.
Why would they give that up? Money, you say. Well, they're in the position where it's not just about money any more, and I'm sure China will drop them a few bob to keep afloat. Meanwhile, they can gain great amusement from watching the Great Satan self-immolate.
It will be a disaster for the Iranian people, but they never cared about them anyway as shown by their mass murders in the aftermath of the protests earlier this year.
I think you are unduly bullish. Iran right now holds a straight flush. Has anyone got any aces to play? At this moment, I don't see them.
When I say at the table I mean to negotiate a surrender. The IRGC have no intention of walking away from the Islamic Republic, it will take a much bigger shake up to accept a Pax Amricana, The Iranian regimes only card atm is Hormuz, At some point the world will get pissed off and force the strait or China will force them to open up.
Post the dispute Iran will have lost most of its missiles and nuke capability, the economy will be a basket case with a massive bill for reconstruction and no finances. The satellite states will have lost their finances and will have their own issues and the whole basis of the Islmic state will be looking shaky. I still dont rule out the conventional army overthrowing the IRGC when the time is ripe.
Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic over Ukrainian drone capability extending to 80km behind the frontline, in mass, targeting logistics, etc. I wonder whether that also explains the large increase in Russian artillery that the Ukrainians have recently claimed to have destroyed?
Yes the latest Ukranian drones can carry a higher payload further than the previous versions, and further than today’s Russian drones. It’s causing a lot of problems for Russian logistics, and they’ve lost quite a few air defence radars and command posts in recent weeks.
If they can’t defend targets as strategic as Novorossiysk port, there’s clearly not a lot left of air defence capability close to the front line. What AD remains is mostly protecting the city of Moscow, and outside the capital is very thinly spread.
Another recent development seems to be a lot of Russian miliblogger complaints that are defence systems aren't being supplied with missiles. I thought it was the one thing that the Russians were least likely to run out of, but it seems to be happening.
The last several months have seen lots of agreements to build drone production facilities for Ukraine across Europe and it looks as though that could make a really important contribution to Ukraine's defence - and maybe eventually Russia's defeat.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
It’s not just Scotland and Wales they have no concern for. It’s also England north of Cambridge and west of Oxford. Hence the rise of Reform. At least we have some sort of government, inadequate though it is. They have nobody to stand up to Westminster.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
I see it's not just me having strange problems with Vanilla loading. Anyone know what's going on?
Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic over Ukrainian drone capability extending to 80km behind the frontline, in mass, targeting logistics, etc. I wonder whether that also explains the large increase in Russian artillery that the Ukrainians have recently claimed to have destroyed?
Yes the latest Ukranian drones can carry a higher payload further than the previous versions, and further than today’s Russian drones. It’s causing a lot of problems for Russian logistics, and they’ve lost quite a few air defence radars and command posts in recent weeks.
If they can’t defend targets as strategic as Novorossiysk port, there’s clearly not a lot left of air defence capability close to the front line. What AD remains is mostly protecting the city of Moscow, and outside the capital is very thinly spread.
Another recent development seems to be a lot of Russian miliblogger complaints that are defence systems aren't being supplied with missiles. I thought it was the one thing that the Russians were least likely to run out of, but it seems to be happening.
The last several months have seen lots of agreements to build drone production facilities for Ukraine across Europe and it looks as though that could make a really important contribution to Ukraine's defence - and maybe eventually Russia's defeat.
We also need to learn that future wars will depend on superiority of drone technology, not big willy waving aircraft carriers, however much that upsets our 134 admirals.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The reason is because there needs to be actual critical mass before you can deal with legislation as required. In the last session, one thing that was blamed for the issues over 20mph speed limits was a lack of committee time, and that was because there simply were not enough members to serve on sufficient committees to look at everything.
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
NI originally had 108, 6 per UK constituency.
One wonders why the UK needs so many. How many actually contribute on a regular basis?
We clearly don't. The US gets by with 435 representatives for 340 million people. We have 650 for 70 million, plus the Scotch and Welsh. Of course much of the action in America is at state level, but there's clearly room for a huge call. But we have a parasitic and entitled political class which fights to the death against any attempts to cut it down to size.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
You also have county and city level representation in America that's far more forceful than our local government.
With local representatives, state governors, state senators and representatives, elected attorneys general and DAs, judges, etc etc. At US elections the voting slip usually runs to several pages - which is why the count seems absurdly long by UK standards.
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.
That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).
That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Morning
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
The number of members in a legislature typically does not scale linearly. It roughly scales by the cube root of the population. But I’ve not done the maths, so I don’t know where that leaves Wales or Scotland.
To throw another example into the mix, the Constitution of Ireland requires that there is one TD for every 20,000-30,000 population. At present they tend to run with as few TDs as possible, right at the 30,000 limit.
But then the Dail has to deal with foreign affairs and other matters that the Senedd doesn't have within its remit.
Bradford has 90 councillors. As well as getting the bins emptied, they also have to deal with foreign affairs. Well, anything affecting Gaza at any rate.
In terms of May elections, in Wales the main reason Plaid lead polls is they have ruled out pushing independence in their first term. In Scotland the SNP are forecast to lose seats on 2021, so neither the Holyrood or Senedd results present much threat to the Union and Starmer has ruled out indyref2 while he is PM.
While he has a majority he can do so but say at the next general election Labour lost its majority and the SNP and Plaid held the balance of power in a hung parliament between Labour, the LDs and Greens or the Conservatives and Reform, then the SNP certainly could force Labour to hold an indyref2 to stay in power and Plaid could also look at asking for an independence referendum in Wales. The Conservatives and Reform if combined they had a majority would certainly tell the SNP and Plaid to sod off but if they only had a majority in England but not UK wide then the SNP and Plaid might push their case to Labour to keep Farage and Kemi out as might SF push for a border poll in Northern Ireland if they took their seats as MPs
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.
Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!
Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.
If you vote for a Scottish-only party in Westminster elections, your MP never gets a say in government. If you want influence in No. 10, vote for UK parties.
There are no UK parties
The Conservative Party stands across the UK, although most GB parties do avoid Northern Ireland. If you can’t vote for a UK party, a GB party is still going to get you more influence in UK government.
They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
We had a Scottish UK PM and Chancellor from 2007 to 2010 pouring money north of the border to Scotland. Every UK region outside London and the home counties is a net recipient of Treasury funds, it is London and the South East that pays the biggest tax bill
Over here in sunny Swansea I've just had someone knocking on the door for the Lib Dems. I think she could tell I didn't really want to talk. She seemed nice though. Said something about it being between them and Reform for the 6th seat (after I said Reform was the one party I wouldn't vote for). No idea if that's true?
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?
My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.
Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian. Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
Geographic assimilation plays quite a part too. North east Wales looks to Liverpool not Cardiff.
Comments
I have convinced Mrs DA that travel to La Corse via BEV is completely feasible. I will return either divorced or with the doubters silenced.
Did get held up behind two flocks of sheep once, though!
In the Welsh parliament, Wales will get significant extra representation after the election, in terms of population - 3.1million gives one member for every 33.5k Welsh residents. Meanwhile in Scotland, the parliament will still have 129 MSPs, which is around 1 for every 42.5k Scots.
Is there a reason given why Wales has been given so many extra MSs? To me 129 feels about right for the size Scotland is
I'd point out Wales is quite considerably larger than Northern Ireland which has always had 90 MLAs.
New Hampshire population - 1.4 million.
That is a crazy ratio.
But then the Dail has to deal with foreign affairs and other matters that the Senedd doesn't have within its remit.
“A minister appeared on your show trying to play down that any ranges within the UK were unrealistic. That’s not correct.”
Not only can Iran strike the UK, but we are incapable of taking out a missile fired at our country, says former defence secretary @BenWallace70"
https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/2041087678247022912
Is there a market on what efforts Orban will go to to overturn the result a la Trump or Bolosonaro if he loses, as seems eminently possible?
I am assuming, incidentally, that he is engaging in vote rigging but it doesn't look as though that will save him on its own.
Killer seals have started eating dolphins. Swimmers fear they are next
Telegraph
I suspect Dura Ace was in some way involved.
I have, however, seen a contested election in a parish with 50 electors before, which is impressive but also may speak to some local disharmony.
I think it very likely we will have separatist First Ministers of the devolved nations, but before @HYUFD combusts and fires up his tank, I think it is very unlikely Independence will be the outcome
Extending the range of liquid fuel missiles (or the throw weight of orbital rockets) is a *standard thing*
I struggle to thing of a moderately long lived rocket program where they didn’t add barrel sections to the file and oxidiser tanks and update the engines a bit.
This is because, while liquid fuels rockets are very sophisticated at the top of each stage (guidance, structure) and at the bottom (thrust structure, engines, plumbing), the middle bit is fairly simple metal tube.
So nearly everyone tries stretching their rockets - changing the diameter is much harder, since it involves new tooling etc. You end up building a new rocket.
The quality of the work can vary - the original German V-2 was elongated by the Russians and formed the basis of the Scud missile. Which was bodge stretched by the Iraqis under Saddam. And the North Koreans tried building an orbital launcher/ICBM by stretching tanks and clustering* stages.
Uprating engines is the limit on this. You need a thrust to weight ratio of at least 1.2 to launch effectively. That is, your first stage rocket thrust has to be 120% of the weight of the rocket. At least. There’s a lot of margin in most liquid fuelled rocket engines. The way to get more thrust is usually to increase chamber pressure - either reduce margin (reliability) or make the chamber walls thicker.
The Iranians will keep extending the range of their missiles until they can hit all of Europe is just a matter of time, money and whether they are stopped or not.
*Clustering is much harder to get to work - it seems simple to tie a bunch of rocket stages together, side by side. But it isn’t.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2041102868795552203
Israel has just attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh.
According to the defense minister, two facilities responsible for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports have been put out of operation.
Not very mobile.
Note that at even 5km, the Ukrainians are relying on real time video. Which can only be supported by high capacity satellite data. Which is Starlink only (for the moment) - OneWeb doesn’t have the bandwidth, and the terminals are too expensive and heavy for drones.
Meanwhile, at Ariane and ESA, they are still trying to sell the idea that a mega constellation isn’t needed for Europe.
The second American constellation with this kind of capabilities (Amazon) will go live sometime this year or next. The Chinese are following.
So the problems faced by the nationalists are (a) what currency they are going to use and (b) what market they want to be in. If they seek to join the EU we have NI type borders and problems writ large making trade much more difficult and expensive with our dominant neighbour. In relation to (a) they have to persuade the EU that having your monetary policy run by a country not in the EU is acceptable to them. This seems unlikely. Alternatively they have to go to the Euro but that requires a lot of fiscal discipline (just because France gets away with it smaller countries should not assume they would be held to account) and the bringing into alignment of our public services and our tax base.
Retaining Sterling is tricky too. The guarantee of the Bank of England would not be available for Scottish based financial institutions. Most of them moved the last time this was threatened doing huge damage to our tax base but there are some significant ones left. We would have no control or say over interest rates (which are likely to be even more focused on house prices in the south of England) and borrowing is likely to be significantly more expensive, possibly prohibitively so.
In short independence in the 2030s is going to be significantly harder and a tougher sell than it was in 2014. If we got a Reform government anything might be possible but short of that it seems very unlikely.
North east Wales looks to Liverpool not Cardiff.
It's also going to *seriously* piss off the Chinese.
And here in France, a tidy but not that exciting 7kw from the roof.
And that's before we even start on the indefensible bunch of hasbeens and hacks that is the House of Lords. Now that the hereditaries are going, there really is no point to it, other than as a disguised pension scheme for already overcompensated MPs at the end of their career ...
Maximum leverage on trump
I think you’re correct
their economy is on he brink and we never really run out of oil, we just pay more for it.
Exactly where and how they will manifest themselves is a different question.
The Federal Government explicitly doesn’t back their debt, so the feedback mechanism between debt, voters, taxes and politicians works. Most of the time.
@TheScreamingEagles - see my message
Also, it's been argued that the US House of Representatives should be a lot larger, and it would ameliorate some of their political problems if they had more Representatives with smaller districts. The US used to increase the number of Representatives as the population increased, but then fixed the number sometime in the 19th century
They may stand acro ss GB but it is via their They may have regional offices across GB but they are English parties run from Westminster , England with English interests paramount and no concern for policies to suit Wales or Scotland. You can try to disguise it any way you want.
If they can’t defend targets as strategic as Novorossiysk port, there’s clearly not a lot left of air defence capability close to the front line. What AD remains is mostly protecting the city of Moscow, and outside the capital is very thinly spread.
They're actually less likely to negotiate than they were two months ago. The leadership has been eliminated and replaced by something more hardline. The closure of Hormuz has shown them they can be the biggest bullies in the room. America has looked totally helpless and hapless, while their president's descent into madness while his Vice President continues to give off massive small dick energy via rampaging xenophobia at all America's longstanding allies has severely weakened their international influence. To the extent the Gulf States are getting into bed with Ukraine for the resources they need.
Why would they give that up? Money, you say. Well, they're in the position where it's not just about money any more, and I'm sure China will drop them a few bob to keep afloat. Meanwhile, they can gain great amusement from watching the Great Satan self-immolate.
It will be a disaster for the Iranian people, but they never cared about them anyway as shown by their mass murders in the aftermath of the protests earlier this year.
I think you are unduly bullish. Iran right now holds a straight flush. Has anyone got any aces to play? At this moment, I don't see them.
Now perhaps if they were to stop bombing Dubai, and reopen the shipping lanes…
Funnily enough, when those deciding who gets the money don’t have to raise it themselves, you quickly end up with rampant fraud.
Post the dispute Iran will have lost most of its missiles and nuke capability, the economy will be a basket case with a massive bill for reconstruction and no finances. The satellite states will have lost their finances and will have their own issues and the whole basis of the Islmic state will be looking shaky. I still dont rule out the conventional army overthrowing the IRGC when the time is ripe.
The last several months have seen lots of agreements to build drone production facilities for Ukraine across Europe and it looks as though that could make a really important contribution to Ukraine's defence - and maybe eventually Russia's defeat.
While he has a majority he can do so but say at the next general election Labour lost its majority and the SNP and Plaid held the balance of power in a hung parliament between Labour, the LDs and Greens or the Conservatives and Reform, then the SNP certainly could force Labour to hold an indyref2 to stay in power and Plaid could also look at asking for an independence referendum in Wales. The Conservatives and Reform if combined they had a majority would certainly tell the SNP and Plaid to sod off but if they only had a majority in England but not UK wide
then the SNP and Plaid might push their case to Labour to keep Farage and Kemi out as might SF push for a border poll in Northern Ireland if they took their seats as MPs