The Celts are revolting – politicalbetting.com

System · 9:13AM

The Celts are revolting – politicalbetting.com

In just over thirty days it is entirely possible that the First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales are members of parties whose ultimate goal is the breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Read the full story here

OldKingCole · 9:18AM

A new topic in which no-one (yet) seems very interested!

Morris_Dancer · 9:19AM

I'm sure Starmer will find a way to bugger things up. That said, I do agree with his stance on Iran, so maybe not.

In unrelated news, here's some excellent music (prompted by a post last thread about saxophones): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23F7lA8jbTE

BatteryCorrectHorse · 9:20AM

Farage I understand backing Trump.

But Badenoch seems to go against all sense. She’s trying to create an independent position from Farage not just copy him. Otherwise what is the point?

Nigelb · 9:21AM

OldKingCole said:
A new topic in which no-one (yet) seems very interested!

HYUFD must be busy elsewhere.
He can rarely resist the provocation of these secessionist headers.

But congrats on your first, your majesty.

carnforth · 9:22AM

How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.

Carr · 9:22AM

Michelle O'Neill is not a secessionist because she doesn't want an independent Northern Ireland. She is for reunification.

Nigelb · 9:23AM

Hungary is one of the countries most exposed to surging oil and gas prices.
Iran ought to put the final nail in Orban's coffin.

Operation Save Orbán: Trump deploys Vance to Hungary
https://www.politico.eu/article/operation-save-viktor-orban-us-donald-trump-deploys-jd-vance-hungary/

BatteryCorrectHorse · 9:23AM

So are the free speech brigade supporting Kanye West or are they too accepting it has consequences?

carnforth · 9:24AM

Carr said:
Michelle O'Neill is not a secessionist because she doesn't want an independent Northern Ireland. She is for reunification.

If Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins the EU, is it seceeding or reunifying?

Carr · 9:24AM

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Farage I understand backing Trump.

But Badenoch seems to go against all sense. She’s trying to create an independent position from Farage not just copy him. Otherwise what is the point?

Farage backing Trump may not play well by the week's end.

ydoethur · 9:25AM

There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.

That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).

That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'

Taz · 9:25AM

OldKingCole said:
A new topic in which no-one (yet) seems very interested!

If they want to go, then go.

Theuniondivvie · 9:26AM

Liking the term secessionist. A very fine art movement (actually several).

ydoethur · 9:26AM

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.

I am 100% confident that not a single Sinn Fein voter believes in independence.

Alphabet_Soup · 9:27AM

If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.

ydoethur · 9:27AM

Nigelb said:
Hungary is one of the countries most exposed to surging oil and gas prices.
Iran ought to put the final nail in Orban's coffin.

Operation Save Orbán: Trump deploys Vance to Hungary
https://www.politico.eu/article/operation-save-viktor-orban-us-donald-trump-deploys-jd-vance-hungary/

I thought Trump was on Orban's side?

OldKingCole · 9:27AM

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:
A new topic in which no-one (yet) seems very interested!
HYUFD must be busy elsewhere.
He can rarely resist the provocation of these secessionist headers.

But congrats on your first, your majesty.

Thank you. It was a double first, I think; first time I've been first as well.

FF43 · 9:28AM

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.

All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If on balance you think independence is a bad idea you don't support SNP.

Theuniondivvie · 9:29AM

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.

Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.

Alphabet_Soup · 9:30AM

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
So are the free speech brigade supporting Kanye West or are they too accepting it has consequences?

We had this debate about Lenny Bruce in 1963:

https://www.nytimes.com/1963/04/09/archives/britain-bars-lenny-bruce-in-the-public-interest-comedians-narcotics.html

Carr · 9:30AM

FF43 said:

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.

Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.

TheScreamingEagles · 9:31AM

Theuniondivvie said:
Liking the term secessionist. A very fine art movement (actually several).

It was a challenge to come up with a catch all term for the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin, and the SDLP.

OldKingCole · 9:32AM

Carr said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Farage I understand backing Trump.

But Badenoch seems to go against all sense. She’s trying to create an independent position from Farage not just copy him. Otherwise what is the point?
Farage backing Trump may not play well by the week's end.

It doesn't play well at the beginning of the week.

But I don't like either Farage or Trump, so it may just be my prejudices showing.

kle4 · 9:33AM

I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

TheScreamingEagles · 9:33AM

ydoethur said:
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.

That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).

That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'

Don't forget the SDLP!

But I've changed it to over 80 MPs.

AnneJGP · 9:34AM

What will be really interesting will be the approach of the nationalist parties to immigration. Anyone welcome except the English?

ydoethur · 9:34AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

You say that, but it bubbled up in Quebec higher than in Scotland or even in Ireland and it seems to have simmered down again.

ydoethur · 9:35AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
There are only 89 seats in Scotland and Wales combined. The greatest landslide for one party in either country since 1918 - including Labour in Wales - was 2015 in Scotland, when the SNP won 56 of 59 or around 96%.

That was an outlier, but let's say by some fluke the SNP win 50 of 56 despite their corruption and incompetence (which let's face it, has not usually been a barrier to Labour doing well in either Scotland or Wales) and Plaid win 25 of 32, which given they are still seen as quite a sectarian party would seem a generous estimate (if they can govern for the whole of Wales I'll change my views).

That's not 'nearly 100 seats.'
Don't forget the SDLP!

But I've changed it to over 80 MPs.

I don't need to, the voters of Northern Ireland seem to have done that already.

OldKingCole · 9:35AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

It would be much less traumatic if we were (still/back) in the EU.

Roger · 9:36AM

Meanwhile no one is touching Israel with a bargepole.......

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NQIQasblvxI

kle4 · 9:36AM

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
You say that, but it bubbled up in Quebec higher than in Scotland or even in Ireland and it seems to have simmered down again.

Point taken, but does it feel like it is simmering down? Ok, there's grumpy Wings types who think the SNP don't really care about independence, but polled support is still 50/50.

ydoethur · 9:36AM

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
It would be much less traumatic if we were (still/back) in the EU.

Not least because leaving the UK would have meant leaving the EU, rather than offering the medium term prospect of rejoining it.

Taz · 9:37AM

Mass shoplifting at Sports Direct

https://x.com/leeharris/status/2040819117330956766?s=61

Alphabet_Soup · 9:38AM

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.

Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.

rottenborough · 9:39AM

There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation

Sandpit · 9:40AM

Sharps vs bookies, and why black market gambling is making a comeback:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2026/04/06/professional-sport-gamblers-closed-down-bookmakers-sharps/

TL:DR, what we all know anyway, that bookies don’t like winners, and ‘anti-money-laundering’ regulations are a great way to shut down people they don’t like.

So gangs in London and websites all over the world, unregulated by the Betting and Gaming Council, are stepping in and taking bets.

OldKingCole · 9:45AM

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation

Quite; especially when all participants are convinced that God is on their side.

Fairliered · 9:45AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

Some people will vote for independence or the union based on their fundamental beliefs. Others will vote based on their perceived best interests. Currently neither the UK, Scottish or Welsh governments are showing any signs of governing in the interests of the majority. For the proportion in favour or against independence to change significantly, one of the relevant governments needs to start governing much better than they have over the past 10 years. I don’t see any prospect of that happening currently. If a Plaid government in Wales makes a real difference to peoples’ lives, it could turn the dial in Wales. There will need to be a radical change in Holyrood or Westminster to make a difference. I can’t see it happening under either the SNP or Labour.

Sandpit · 9:47AM

Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!

Fairliered · 9:47AM

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.

People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.

Nigelb · 9:49AM

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!

You mean the Trump admin has resuscitated an old smear.

SandyRentool · 9:50AM

The Scots need to get hold of some Ukrainian drones in case HYUFD turns up with his tank squadron.

Carr · 9:50AM

Taz said:
Mass shoplifting at Sports Direct

https://x.com/leeharris/status/2040819117330956766?s=61

The police don't seem to have been under attack, yet they stand by and watch a small crowd force their way into a shop. Seems more like a Bank Holiday sale, maybe after staff unlocked the shutter.

kle4 · 9:50AM

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!

Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.

Roger · 9:50AM

Several stories which at first look like a scattergun from a nutter but having just looked at a couple they are really intriguing.........

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aDzA3mwO0SQ

Pulpstar · 9:51AM

Bonjour de Pigale 😊

kinabalu · 9:52AM

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation

Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.

Starry · 9:54AM

AnneJGP said:
What will be really interesting will be the approach of the nationalist parties to immigration. Anyone welcome except the English?

That's not true at all. SNP had support from those that moved to Scotland from England. They were a left of centre party, not the hard-right RefUK.

kle4 said:
It would be much less traumatic if we were (still/back) in the EU.

One of (probably the) main reason Scotland is in the UK is the promise that it was the only way to maintain being in the EU. If Brexit had been on the cards, I'm sure the vote would have been to Leave.

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

I voted Remain (see EU above) but have on occasion also voted SNP. They were a far better prospect than Boris (and the mess that came after) or Corbyn, despite independence. Not that I am much against that anymore, given Brexit. Had Labour been soft left and not given over to Reform-lite shenanigans, maybe the SNP would not be rising so high?

FF43 · 9:54AM

Carr said:

FF43 said:

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.
Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.

Of those who voted SNP in the 2024 UK GE 86% would vote for independence now (Dec 25 poll) while 3% would vote No. A strong correlation I would say

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Reftabs_251204_w.pdf

Fairliered · 9:55AM

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.

Killing decision makers indicates the killers don’t want a decision to be made. The conflict has all the elements of being orchestrated by Bibi.

carnforth · 9:56AM

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.

If the Scots are happy for Scotland to be noticeably poorer than it is now for 60 years until recovering, like Ireland, then fair enough. I don't recall that eyes-wide-open stance in 2014 though.

Morris_Dancer · 9:57AM

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.

What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.

kle4 · 9:59AM

Fairliered said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
Killing decision makers indicates the killers don’t want a decision to be made. The conflict has all the elements of being orchestrated by Bibi.

I wouldn't pretend to be an expert, and of course it's possible when you remove certain people at the top then others will step up and accept a deal in the face of military superiority, but it seems logical that sometimes it might make things even more difficult - even if it would be self destructive, the fact of the others being killed off might alter the bargaining frictions for the Iranian side and cause informational and systematic issues which get in the way of cold eyed deals.

Roger · 9:59AM

Morris_Dancer said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.

Here's a clue. (and it's quite funny)

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gozfzyfJ1JE

OldKingCole · 9:59AM

Morris_Dancer said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.

Cuba, I suspect.

LostPassword · 9:59AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

A more optimistic interpretation is that, even now, with all the crises we face, with the contempt shown to the status quo, even in such circumstances, support for the Union remains high enough to prevent secession.

Sandpit · 10:00AM

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!
Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.

Well Trump missed that training day, and ended up marrying the Eastern European hottie!

Edit: twice! Ivana was Czech and Melania is Slovenian.

ydoethur · 10:02AM

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.

I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.

LostPassword · 10:03AM

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!
Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.
Well Trump missed that training day, and ended up marrying the Eastern European hottie!

And his actions are now indistinguishable from those of a Russian agent.

Does make you wonder.

ydoethur · 10:05AM

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!
Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.
Well Trump missed that training day, and ended up marrying the Eastern European hottie!
And his actions are now indistinguishable from those of a Russian agent.

Does make you wonder.

I'm not sure I agree. Most Russian agents were a lot more subtle.

MarqueeMark · 10:05AM

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Quite; especially when all participants are convinced that God is on their side.

God needs to get on with some smiting. Show them who is really in control.

FF43 · 10:06AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.

Fairliered · 10:07AM

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.

The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.

MarqueeMark · 10:07AM

SandyRentool said:
The Scots need to get hold of some Ukrainian drones in case HYUFD turns up with his tank squadron.

HYUFD's tanks are all in Ukraine!

kle4 · 10:07AM

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Quite; especially when all participants are convinced that God is on their side.
God needs to get on with some smiting. Show them who is really in control.

He can tend to be a bit indiscriminate with the smiting, hopefully He's sharpened up his targeting systems since the old days.

carnforth · 10:08AM

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.

Learning new things today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zwnbwsg#zb9v8p3

"The Economic War, 1932-1938"

FF43 · 10:08AM

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!
Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.
Well Trump missed that training day, and ended up marrying the Eastern European hottie!
And his actions are now indistinguishable from those of a Russian agent.

Does make you wonder.
I'm not sure I agree. Most Russian agents were a lot more subtle.

Indeed most Russian agents pretend not to be Russian agents. Trump on the other hand ...

Fairliered · 10:09AM

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Quite; especially when all participants are convinced that God is on their side.
God needs to get on with some smiting. Show them who is really in control.

Which of His prophets followers will he smite first?

kle4 · 10:09AM

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!
Need to break out the old cold war training about never trusting the beautiful eastern european ladies. Or Yugoslavian interpreters.
Well Trump missed that training day, and ended up marrying the Eastern European hottie!
And his actions are now indistinguishable from those of a Russian agent.

Does make you wonder.
I'm not sure I agree. Most Russian agents were a lot more subtle.

Probably more suspicious of what they get told by the Kremlin as well.

ydoethur · 10:10AM

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.

Agreed, although I don't think it's the only other issue. Power generation, governance and productivity are all major problems.

I set out some of them here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4732798/#Comment_4732798

And in less detail here:

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5448893#Comment_5448893

Dopermean · 10:10AM

Sandpit said:
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for Governor of California. Yes, that Steve Hilton, who’s now an American citizen.

https://x.com/breannamorello/status/2041024215722127516

The primary is June 2nd, and Hilton is currently top of the polling. Note that this is a bipartisan ‘jungle’ primary, with the top two going through to November’s election to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom.

At the moment there’s too many Democrats in the race, and they need to consolidate behind a single candidate. Rep Eric Swalwell was supposed to be that candidate, but he’s somewhat caught up in a scandal involving a Chinese spy and a number of his own female staffers.

Hint to politicians everywhere: if a really hot Asian lady shows an interest in you, she probably isn’t all that she seems!

Deja vu of John Whittingdale's unfortunate "Match.com" dating history.
"Why wouldn't an attractive younger woman be attracted to a 'successful' overweight red-faced adonis?"
See numerous other male politicians.

Sandpit · 10:11AM

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.

Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!

kle4 · 10:13AM

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Agreed, although I don't think it's the only other issue. Power generation, governance and productivity are all major problems.

I set out some of them here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4732798/#Comment_4732798

And in less detail here:

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5448893#Comment_5448893

Emotional appeals can carry things a long way. Interesting point about the Supreme Court decision and Wales being a straightforward conquest though. Really it is pretty impressive there is a strong identity still.

Carr · 10:14AM

FF43 said:

Carr said:

FF43 said:

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.
Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.
Of those who voted SNP in the 2024 UK GE 86% would vote for independence now (Dec 25 poll) while 3% would vote No. A strong correlation I would say

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Reftabs_251204_w.pdf

Yes but you said "If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP", but in fact the intersection is non-empty and not just in the pedantic sense of someone misplacing their X.

kle4 · 10:14AM

FF43 said:

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.

Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!

bondegezou · 10:14AM

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.

These same trends have occurred in Spain, Canada and Belgium, yet all three are still united. Some countries have broken up (Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia), but those were coming out of Communist rule. Western countries have rarely seen seccessions.

FF43 · 10:15AM

Carr said:

FF43 said:

Carr said:

FF43 said:

carnforth said:
How many SNP voters believe in independence? How many Plaid voters? How many SF voters?

My guess is, by proportion SF > SNP > Plaid.
All of them? It really isn't difficult to find Scots who want independence. They might be mistaken about what independence means but they won't find out until too late in that case. If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP.
Tactical voting. Multi-point manifestos. Etc. It is a fact that some SNP voters would vote and did vote against independence, while some voters for unionist parties and abstainers would vote and did vote in favour of it.
Of those who voted SNP in the 2024 UK GE 86% would vote for independence now (Dec 25 poll) while 3% would vote No. A strong correlation I would say

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Reftabs_251204_w.pdf
Yes but you said "If you think independence is a bad idea on balance you don't support SNP", but in fact the intersection is non-empty and not just in the pedantic sense of someone misplacing their X.

The intersection is 3% on those numbers. There are more people who want independence and will vote other parties, including significant minorities of Labour and Lib Dems

kle4 · 10:15AM

bondegezou said:

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
These same trends have occurred in Spain, Canada and Belgium, yet all three are still united. Some countries have broken up (Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia), but those were coming out of Communist rule. Western countries have rarely seen seccessions.

Indeed, but whilst the support is high (or even rising in Wales), the worry remains.

SandyRentool · 10:17AM

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.

Just move the border to the east of the Marches rail line.

England doesn't need Hereford of Shrewsbury.

bondegezou · 10:17AM

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.

The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.

kle4 · 10:20AM

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.

Isn't that the one that would matter most to people*? We're like 10-12x their population, I'd sure hope our GDP was larger.

*even taking off a little for tax haven benefits?

FF43 · 10:22AM

The thing to understand about Scotland is most Scots are nationalists. The debate is about where Scotland's interest lies. Is it as an independent nation or as part of a bigger Union? It's a version of the Brexit debate, but with more substance.

eek · 10:22AM

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.

More prosperous yet their per capita GDP is higher - I think you need to check the definition of prosperous because I wouldn’t call the UK thriving

bondegezou · 10:22AM

kle4 said:

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.
Isn't that the one that would matter most to people*? We're like 10-12x their population, I'd sure hope our GDP was larger.

*even taking off a little for tax haven benefits?

But the context was whether Ireland would be viable or not. In terms of the viability of a nation, total GDP seems like the more important metric. I mean, my household has a higher GDP per capita than Ireland, but my household would not be viable as a nation.

Sandpit · 10:24AM

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.

Indeed so, a great example of what a positive effect low taxes can have on an economy.

OldKingCole · 10:25AM

Sandpit said:

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!

Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way.
Probably that would be illegal now.

Dura_Ace · 10:27AM

Sandpit said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
Indeed so, a great example of what a positive effect low taxes can have on an economy.

And not wasting billions on stupid shit like ICBMs and aircraft carriers.

ydoethur · 10:28AM

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant hime driving at over 60 most of the way.
Probably that would be illegal now.

It was illegal at the time. The point is it would be impossible now.

malcolmg · 10:28AM

Taz said:

OldKingCole said:
A new topic in which no-one (yet) seems very interested!
If they want to go, then go.

Sooner the better Taz, anything has to be better than Westminster incompetence and grifting.

viewcode · 10:30AM

Sandpit said:
Sharps vs bookies, and why black market gambling is making a comeback:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2026/04/06/professional-sport-gamblers-closed-down-bookmakers-sharps/

TL:DR, what we all know anyway, that bookies don’t like winners, and ‘anti-money-laundering’ regulations are a great way to shut down people they don’t like.

So gangs in London and websites all over the world, unregulated by the Betting and Gaming Council, are stepping in and taking bets.

Laffer curve for regulation. There is a sweet spot for regulation (both external and internal). Too much and people go elsewhere.

AnneJGP · 10:30AM

carnforth said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
If the Scots are happy for Scotland to be noticeably poorer than it is now for 60 years until recovering, like Ireland, then fair enough. I don't recall that eyes-wide-open stance in 2014 though.

I doubt if that will be a factor. It's a decision in another dimension altogether.

malcolmg · 10:30AM

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.

Take it you are speaking personally , given the state of UK for majority of people, the word for it is certainly not prosperous for sure.

malcolmg · 10:32AM

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.

Their vote in Westminster means nothing, England is 86% of teh vote and so it will always be favoured and policies to suit them , why would any of the troughers risk losing their seat to help Wales or Scotland.

kle4 · 10:34AM

bondegezou said:

kle4 said:

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.
Isn't that the one that would matter most to people*? We're like 10-12x their population, I'd sure hope our GDP was larger.

*even taking off a little for tax haven benefits?
But the context was whether Ireland would be viable or not. In terms of the viability of a nation, total GDP seems like the more important metric. I mean, my household has a higher GDP per capita than Ireland, but my household would not be viable as a nation.

Worth remembering the UK is on the large side for nations globally, despite occasional talk of being small, and outliers like China and India.

The average, even excluding them, is still probably 5x times more than Ireland or Scotland at least, but there's a lot of viable and still prosperous ones in that range I'm sure.

Sandpit · 10:35AM

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Turn the A487 into a motorway from Fishguard to Bangor!
Friend of mine, who lived in Llanberis served for many years on various professional committees, all of which met in Cardiff. He kept a note of how long the drive took. Can't recall now what his record was, but I do recall it meant him driving at over 60 most of the way.
Probably that would be illegal now.

When I was a student in Aberystwyth in the ‘90s, we definitely didn’t keep leaderboards of times for each leg of a trip to Cardiff or Shrewsbury.

kle4 · 10:35AM

malcolmg said:

bondegezou said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
The UK's GDP is about six times as large as the Republic of Ireland's. We're more prosperous than them. They're only doing better per capita.
Take it you are speaking personally , given the state of UK for majority of people, the word for it is certainly not prosperous for sure.

Globally speaking it still counts, but the low grade crapness of a lot of things, despite things costing more than ever, has gotten pretty noticable.

kinabalu · 10:35AM

Fairliered said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
Killing decision makers indicates the killers don’t want a decision to be made. The conflict has all the elements of being orchestrated by Bibi.

Undoubtedly. He's wanted it for a long time and finally got himself an American president dumb enough to acquiesce.

malcolmg · 10:37AM

kle4 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:
I'm not very optimistic about the long term prospects of the Union. Ok, PC are not prioritising Independence this term when they win the election, and the SNP have been in power a long time and the needle has not moved a great deal, but when 25-50% of a country still has it as a goal (regardless of whether every single one of the voters for SNP and PC back that goal), and those supporting that goal are in (local) power, the issue is not going to go away.

Yes yes, the legalities require Westminster compliance, but so long as support is rising in Wales and steady in Scotland, the salience of the topic remains and it is at best a risky position for the Union.
Farage potentially becoming prime minister is a reason for being less optimistic again about the Union. Worse than Thatcher in the damage he's likely to do the Union.
Labour reviving in Scotland could have been a longer term cause for Unionist optimism, but that proved pretty darn shortlived!

Given their London based regional office has no care whatsoever for Scotland there is no chance of them reviving. Anybody voting for English parties in Scotland is a fool. The 86% of population will always take priority to politicians desperate to keep their jobs, it is a no brainer and yet proves how dumb a lot of people are. How shitty does it need to get before the light bulb switches on.

viewcode · 10:37AM

SandyRentool said:

Fairliered said:

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
If I lived in Wales I'd vote Plaid Cymru as the party most likely to stand up for my interests in Westminster, but that doesn't mean I share their goal of separatism. There's a difference between fighting your real-world corner and running away to Fantasyland.
Hey, since 2016 we've all run away to Fantasyland, even if it's somewhat dystopian.
Some of us were forcibly deported there of course.
Of course. Brexit was also based on several competing fantasies. As it happens I think Scotland could be a viable separate state, but not Wales. The extent of economic and social assimilation is different.
People said Ireland wouldn’t be viable. It took a while, but now they’re more prosperous than the UK.
I think they said it would be impoverished and weak, rather than non-viable. And in that they were right, because it was disruptive to the main export market (England, 90% of all agricultural exports which was their main money earner).

However, straight off the top of my head, Ireland had a current account deficit of only 2% of spending in the immediate aftermath of independence (although that doesn't include the debt overhang from the loans they took out to fight the war). That wouldn't apply to Wales.
The other issue that Wales will need to resolve is that there is no practical way to travel between the populous north and the populous south without travelling through mid Wales, with it’s inadequate infrastructure, or via England.
Just move the border to the east of the Marches rail line.

England doesn't need Hereford of Shrewsbury.

Yes, but what colour is the boathouse door in Hereford?

kinabalu · 10:39AM

Morris_Dancer said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:
There is no silver-bullet solution to the current conflict, neither for resolving it nor even for halting it, especially when both sides operate under the belief that they are prevailing.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041073037236212080

Part of long tweet on where things are with negotiation
Yep, no trust, different versions of reality, and also a lack of diplomatic/negotiating capability. Many of Iran's decision makers have been killed and it's even worse on the American side. I don't think there is, in this denuded Trump2 administration, sufficient nous and attention span to negotiate a deal to end the war.

Ceasefire, Straits, oil, rebuild, security guarantees for Iran and the Gulf, the Israel angle, Iran's nuclear ambitions, there's a lot there, most of it beyond the ken of Donald Trump and the sort of people he allows influence and breathing space. Any deal of consequence would likely need to be put together by other actors and the prerequisite for such efforts to get started is that Trump stops abruptly with Iran, declares it the greatest military victory in all of history, and moves on to whatever nonsense is next.

That's what we should all be hoping for. It's messy but it's the least bad route from where we are.
What's next could be Cuba. Or Greenland.

Cuba, I guess. Hopefully the WC might keep him on the reservation for the summer.

The Celts are revolting – politicalbetting.com

Comments