On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
A bit of contorting from the White House to justify US and Israel committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Bart, these are your heroes.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
It’s pretty desperate justification by the WH but we’re long passed the point of them adhering to international norms.
Why any other nation would work with, or adhere to, the International Criminal Court and its rulings when two of the worst offenders don’t work with it is a mystery to me.
Fox News can confirm that the 2nd crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from behind enemy lines in Iran are all safely out of Iran. That according to two senior US officials and multiple well placed sources in the region. The Weapons Systems Officer ejected along with the pilot when their F15E Strike Eagle they were flying was struck Thursday night (early Friday local time) in southwest Iran.
The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue.
Western militaries do go to quite extraordinary lengths to rescue their own in an emergency. Multiple elite units across services, dozens of personnel and vehicles, literally no stone unturned in the effort to recover the downed airman.
There are even some reports of fighting between IRGC troops (in plain clothes) and local Iranians, the locals trying to keep the soldiers off the trail to find the American.
Because they will be horribly tortured and face a very unpleasant death otherwise.
A bit of contorting from the White House to justify US and Israel committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Bart, these are your heroes.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
It’s not idiocy, but it’s a pretext. Total war is illegal, under the Geneva Conventions. It can also be very effective, in breaking the enemy’s ability and will to resist (more obvious atrocities, like murder, rape, and torture usually strengthen the will to resist).
I was struck, by the discussion about destroying dams, irrigation, desalination plants, by how similar this is to what the Mongols did, when they invaded Central Asia and Iran. You simply make existence impossible for your enemies. These places took decades to recover from the destruction of irrigation.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
If you have ever watched the film Casablanca then you would know that wasn't true. Made in 1942 and the people smugglers are the heroes.
Amidst all the illegal gambling and black marketeering, Rick's people smuggling is small fry.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
And, Reform are polling very strongly, week after week, in by elections. They will be a big party, in local government, after May 7th.
Happy Easter PB, may you all have a great day whatever you are doing.
For some it will be church, for others hunting eggs around the garden or the local park, going for Sunday Lunch, visiting family, or even a day in front of the TV watching sports. Hopefully it’s only me dodging Iranian missiles!
A bit of contorting from the White House to justify US and Israel committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Bart, these are your heroes.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
It’s pretty desperate justification by the WH but we’re long passed the point of them adhering to international norms.
Why any other nation would work with, or adhere to, the International Criminal Court and its rulings when two of the worst offenders don’t work with it is a mystery to me.
Sad but true. When you have the USA, Russia , China , Israel and India not part of the ICC it calls into question the point of the court .
Sadly the UNSC is also going the way of being a platform for performative show boating where nothing gets done because of the constant vetoes .
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Happy Easter!
May 7th might not tell us much. In England local elections are a vehicle for protesting about the nature of reality, as mostly those in charge are dealing with bins and bollards. In Scotland, the Left of Centre vote share tends to be over 60% and even if Reform only does OK it will be good for them. Wales; no idea.
It is not the snapshot of May but the trend and the future obstacles that enable guesses about the next GE. Farage does not look like the person the majority will choose as PM for hard times. Their party is split between libertarians, muscular Christians who don't go to church, 1950s Labour social democracy + racism, chaps on the make with a suit and pseudo intellectuals. This doesn't make them a lot worse than the others, but the difference is real.
What % of the voting population would really prefer Farage to Starmer, and turn up to vote for it, at this very moment to deal with the freak show that is world politics right now?
May will allow the pollsters to calibrate. The professionals will be able to use the voting as a sample. They hope.
It will also crystallise the level of support vs campaigning competency of Reform & Greens. Much has been made, over the years of the requirement to have a “good ground game”.
So far, Reform have been elevated by enthusiasm in a sector of the electorate, rather than party competence.
May will give us indications of how far that can carry them.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Why is it "worth noting that Scotland has had no small boat landings"?
Why would anyone paddle the extra 400 miles to beach at North Berwick rather than Folkestone?
It's an entirely irrelevant point.
Because that makes it “Westminster’s” problem, and they shouldn’t be housed in Scotland at all.
Pretty sure it should be the problem of the govenment that has retained power over immigration and border securiy, but as any fule kno bad stuff is usually the fault of the EssEnnPee.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It's never been the position in international law that you have to claim asylum in the first safe country you pass through, and it isn't desperately surprising people seek asylum in a country where they have a connection due to language, colonial history, family or whatever.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Malc (and virtually no one else who makes similar comments) is claiming it's the rule. And yet the standard reply is always composed and sent by someone...
Tell us again how the average person doesn't understand that inflation going down means prices are still rising. That'll make you feel even more superior.
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
These coming elections are likely to be the least predictive of a future GE result.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
I certainly agree trying to call a 2029 GE from 2026 local elections is going to be speculative but that won't stop some from trying or extrapolating the best case for their party based on notional vote shares, tea leaves, the phase of the Moon or whatever.
My earlier point is the current polling is all over the place and that might be a function of voter volatility but more likely differing sampling, weighting or other methodology. The way some of the Conservative-inclined have been salivating over this Ashcroft poll is absurd but understandable just as celebrating holding a Ward in a local Council by-election which they won with 69% in a bad year with just 45%.
MY view increasingly is May will be disappointing for all parties (except perhaps Plaid Cymru in Wales). For those who lose lots of seats, the disappointment will be obvious but for Reform and Greens, I suspect it will be a case of not as good as we might have hoped, expected or wanted whether that be through lack of candidates or lack of activist resources or just because the vote they thought was there wasn't or didn't come out.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It's never been the position in international law that you have to claim asylum in the first safe country you pass through, and it isn't desperately surprising people seek asylum in a country where they have a connection due to language, colonial history, family or whatever.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Malc (and virtually no one else who makes similar comments) is claiming it's the rule. And yet the standard reply is always composed and sent by someone...
Tell us again how the average person doesn't understand that inflation going down means prices are still rising. That'll make you feel even more superior.
So pointing out the factual position is "feeling superior" is it? So why is that factually incorrect bigots band together to lord it over other people?
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
Moray more likely than Ayr or Ed Central. Tories probably just edged the wards that make up the Holyrood seat in 2024.
‘ This is a MUST read article by @smeslami & Zeynab Malakouti!
It reveals how Tehran's calculations re the Straits have changed. Rather than use this leverage to negotiate an end to the war, Tehran is looking to establish a permanent transit fee mechanism and use its leverage to reestablish economic relations with countries who - due to US sanctions - have more or less ended their ties with Iran.’
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
Moray more likely than Ayr or Ed Central. Tories probably just edged the wards that make up the Holyrood seat in 2024.
Ah ok, thank you! Im not expecting them to win 7 but i'd not got Moray on the radar to watch
So today is the day for celebrating a bunch of bodysnatchers removing a corpse from a cave.
By eating chocolate.
Happy Easter everyone.
Yes, I demolished a Milky Way egg at 7.40am this morning to the astonishment of my children.
Happy Easter everyone!
No Easter eggs here as it’s a travel day.
I was up at 3am to take my son to Heathrow at the start of his 2 month Central Asian trip. Hopefully he’ll actually be able to find a flight home and the world supply of jet fuel isn’t being rationed by then.
Then back in the car at 7.45 for France. I’m underneath channel as we speak.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
It's hard to look at this table and not conclude Reform have slipped back:
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
If you have ever watched the film Casablanca then you would know that wasn't true. Made in 1942 and the people smugglers are the heroes.
Amidst all the illegal gambling and black marketeering, Rick's people smuggling is small fry.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
There's a lot of tactical voting in Scotland. Where the Tories already hold the seat they are the obvious contender against the SNP and will get a lot of Unionists votes as a result. Where they don't their vote is going to disappear like snow off a dyke as we say around here. (Must say the mountains towards Glenshee looked fabulous this morning on our early walk, glistening with snow).
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
There's a lot of tactical voting in Scotland. Where the Tories already hold the seat they are the obvious contender against the SNP and will get a lot of Unionists votes as a result. Where they don't their vote is going to disappear like snow off a dyke as we say around here. (Must say the mountains towards Glenshee looked fabulous this morning on our early walk, glistening with snow).
I guess Reforms decline as shown in this poll if borne out can only help them in the Borders etc
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
Fox News can confirm that the 2nd crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from behind enemy lines in Iran are all safely out of Iran. That according to two senior US officials and multiple well placed sources in the region. The Weapons Systems Officer ejected along with the pilot when their F15E Strike Eagle they were flying was struck Thursday night (early Friday local time) in southwest Iran.
The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue.
Western militaries do go to quite extraordinary lengths to rescue their own in an emergency. Multiple elite units across services, dozens of personnel and vehicles, literally no stone unturned in the effort to recover the downed airman.
There are even some reports of fighting between IRGC troops (in plain clothes) and local Iranians, the locals trying to keep the soldiers off the trail to find the American.
Because they will be horribly tortured and face a very unpleasant death otherwise.
Yes an airman captured becomes a bargaining chip to those who don’t play by the usual rules. This guy was a colonel apparently, much more senior than your average WSO in the back of an F-15. He’d have been paraded on Iranian TV and subjected to all sorts of ‘interrogation’, then either killed or exchanged for a terrorist from US prison.
But it’s still a massive effort put into the recovery mission.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
I think Iran will decide it one way or the other. We’re still several months away. By then, it’ll either be an unmitigated disaster, or somehow he’ll have pulled off some sort of victory or off-ramp. If it’s the latter, well people have short memories and presumably petrol prices will have subsided.
I suppose there’s scenario 3: he manages an off ramp, Iran disappears from the news, and the Epstein files are finally released in full with DJT featuring prominently.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Agreed.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It's never been the position in international law that you have to claim asylum in the first safe country you pass through, and it isn't desperately surprising people seek asylum in a country where they have a connection due to language, colonial history, family or whatever.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Malc (and virtually no one else who makes similar comments) is claiming it's the rule. And yet the standard reply is always composed and sent by someone...
Tell us again how the average person doesn't understand that inflation going down means prices are still rising. That'll make you feel even more superior.
So pointing out the factual position is "feeling superior" is it? So why is that factually incorrect bigots band together to lord it over other people?
In the USENET days, the anger that people expressed at their favourite urban legends being debunked was just part of the landscape for people on alt.urban.folklore
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
This is bollocks. I am 99% certain that crossing the channel without papers or permission and avoiding all customs and borders - while often endangering children - breaks thousands of laws. It’s just that our enfeebled authorities are too pathetic to enforce them, and allow them to claim asylum
The first job of a Reform government should be an end to the right of asylum. Just end it. Withdraw from all treaties that oblige it. Take only those who really need our help, and are not likely to rape and murder
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
In March, the Ukrainians claimed to have killed or wounded 35,300 Russian troops. Of those, 34,000 were by drones - 96%. That beats the stated replenishment rate - if that rate can even be achieved by Putin.
Just 1,363 killed/injured by artillery, mines, aircraft munitions. The changing shape of war.
Which has not been factored in to US planning for Iran.
Indeed.
They said "What do you know? We know best," when Ukraine offered to advise US forces about what they had learned.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
It's hard to look at this table and not conclude Reform have slipped back:
I don't dispute Reform aren't polling as strongly as they were after the May 2025 locals - if you want a giggle, look at the Ashcroft poll numbers from mid April 2025 - Reform were 21% then, the Conservatives on 24% and Labour on 27% so you could argue Reform are polling as well now as they were then.
Overall, though, I'd argue within the margin of error, the Reform picture is stabilising within a rage of 23-27% with occasional outliers either side. Both Labour and Conservatives are around or just below 20%, the LDs struggling in the low teens but the Green figure is harder to quantify -a spread between 12% and 21% in two polls conducted at more or less the same time doesn't help - I'd probably say 13-15%,ahead of the LDs but behind both Labour and Conservative.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
The smalls i am dealing with are more likely to stampede like horses!
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
I think Iran will decide it one way or the other. We’re still several months away. By then, it’ll either be an unmitigated disaster, or somehow he’ll have pulled off some sort of victory or off-ramp. If it’s the latter, well people have short memories and presumably petrol prices will have subsided.
I think, more specifically, “gas prices” will decide it.
Unless Iran goes horrifically wrong, to the point of planeloads of coffins arriving home being on the news every night as happened in Iraq two decades ago, Americans don’t think much about foreign policy when deciding how to vote.
It’ll be cost of living and domestic policy that are in people’s minds come November.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It is oddly ignorant of Scotland to suggest that small boat arrivals don't matter here. In Perth for example, the Station Hotel and Queen's Hotel have been housing migrants since 2021. There was a protest about it in 2025, and it is believed that a (lovely) Victorian school building was torched recently to prevent it from being used to house migrants.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Doesn't have to be Texas though right? IIUC they need to overcome a double-digit margin but only in two states and they have a bunch of options (Ohio, Florida, Nebraska, Texas, Alaska, Iowa).
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
The smalls i am dealing with are more likely to stampede like horses!
My grandson has only been walking for a week and is still at the staggering around like a drunk on a Saturday night stage but he's certainly enjoying the extra mobility.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It's never been the position in international law that you have to claim asylum in the first safe country you pass through, and it isn't desperately surprising people seek asylum in a country where they have a connection due to language, colonial history, family or whatever.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Malc (and virtually no one else who makes similar comments) is claiming it's the rule. And yet the standard reply is always composed and sent by someone...
Tell us again how the average person doesn't understand that inflation going down means prices are still rising. That'll make you feel even more superior.
So pointing out the factual position is "feeling superior" is it? So why is that factually incorrect bigots band together to lord it over other people?
When we hold political positions it's often because we want the law changed. Saying "yeah, but it's the law" is not a counter-argument.
In March, the Ukrainians claimed to have killed or wounded 35,300 Russian troops. Of those, 34,000 were by drones - 96%. That beats the stated replenishment rate - if that rate can even be achieved by Putin.
Just 1,363 killed/injured by artillery, mines, aircraft munitions. The changing shape of war.
Which has not been factored in to US planning for Iran.
The rather good Emergency Podcast, of which I believe @RochdalePioneers is one of the hosts, was highlighting this very point a couple of days ago. If you want to see the likely fate of a US attempt to force open the Straits of Hormuz, look no further than the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Drones are rapidly changing the whole nature of warfare.
I currently have a small beef with Rochdale.
He has clearly received a Google Ads promotion of some sort, because Google continually drops "sponsored" segments of him declaring today's exciting activity of substantially enhancing the interior of his passion wagon by fitting new bionic six million dollar floor mats, with great detail as to the patterns of the tesselated Ts orientated to minimise moisture and dampness.
I keep having to swat it to get my fix of Ukraine news. I don't want to keep clicking on it, because if I do that then click away it will start to undermine his algorithm treatment.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
The smalls i am dealing with are more likely to stampede like horses!
My grandson has only been walking for a week and is still at the staggering around like a drunk on a Saturday night stage but he's certainly enjoying the extra mobility.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Agreed.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
Simple answer: yes.
The electoral college currently favours Republicans on the national vote share because the Dems have massive majorities in large states like CA and NY. If the Dems can swing Texas it becomes almost impossible for Reps to win.
If you look at the 2024 Presidential election, the result was 312-226. Texas is 40 EC votes, so just swinging Texas would have made it it 272-266 to Trump. If Texas swings, probably one more of the Trump states does too. Any half-decent Dem candidate wins the election if they win Texas.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
The smalls i am dealing with are more likely to stampede like horses!
My grandson has only been walking for a week and is still at the staggering around like a drunk on a Saturday night stage but he's certainly enjoying the extra mobility.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
BBQ’d a butterflied leg of lamb last night. Marinated in vegetable oil, balsamic vinegar, rosemary and honey for 24 hours.
These coming elections are likely to be the least predictive of a future GE result.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
I'm very confident in my Starmer surviving 2026 bet.
Oh, I think after the utter bloodbath of Labour's results in May, the forces ranged against Starmer will rear their heads.
And Starmer might be so broken by it, he just gives up.
He’s no different than other PMs . He will cling on for dear life . Once you get the top job you aren’t going anywhere unless you’re dragged kicking and screaming out of No 10 .
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
There's a lot of tactical voting in Scotland. Where the Tories already hold the seat they are the obvious contender against the SNP and will get a lot of Unionists votes as a result. Where they don't their vote is going to disappear like snow off a dyke as we say around here. (Must say the mountains towards Glenshee looked fabulous this morning on our early walk, glistening with snow).
People talk about Reform’s vote being evenly spread. I’m not so sure. I think they will be particularly strong in areas where the Orange Lodge are strong. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them doing very well in Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, West Lothian and Glasgow. I will be interested in constituency odds for Airdrie, Uddingston and Bellshill, Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, Cunninghame South, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, and Bathgate. There may be value there.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It is oddly ignorant of Scotland to suggest that small boat arrivals don't matter here. In Perth for example, the Station Hotel and Queen's Hotel have been housing migrants since 2021. There was a protest about it in 2025, and it is believed that a (lovely) Victorian school building was torched recently to prevent it from being used to house migrants.
The Perth protests have been going on almost weekly since August last year. And the counter-protests of course. And they are not alone but few of these get beyond the local press.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
If and when the likes of the Mail and the Telegraph end their love-in with Reform, we will see them go for the Greens as Corbyn-Max. Pointing out how thoroughly bonkers their policies would be. Then the Tories will be seen as the way to stop them.
I have said here before, the Tories will poll north of 30% at the next election. There are a lot of naturally small C conservatives in Britain. They just need to see that still voting Reform will deliver everything they hate - in the form of the Greens.
Some commenters on the Daily T interview with Linden Kimkarren (or Karremkarmerruk or something) seem to think that the interviewer Tim Stanley should join the Lib Dems and that the Telegraph is now aligned with the BBC.
(In the interview imo Stanley was a patsy, and entirely unprepared.)
I need to remind them that the Telegraph is soon going to be owned by the Germans from the EU !
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Agreed.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
Maybe. It depends.
If Texas leans very slightly Democrat then it means the Republicans pile up lots of wasted votes there, which is the sort of thing that has you lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.
The uncertainty is that, for that to happen, the Democrats would have to lose voters in other states. If those voters are in California, where the Democrats pile up lots of votes they don't need to win the state, then that's good, but if they're voters in the mid-west, such as in PA, MI, WI or MN, then you could see the reverse in those states - the Democrats losing narrowly on a tied popular vote.
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
There's a lot of tactical voting in Scotland. Where the Tories already hold the seat they are the obvious contender against the SNP and will get a lot of Unionists votes as a result. Where they don't their vote is going to disappear like snow off a dyke as we say around here. (Must say the mountains towards Glenshee looked fabulous this morning on our early walk, glistening with snow).
People talk about Reform’s vote being evenly spread. I’m not so sure. I think they will be particularly strong in areas where the Orange Lodge are strong. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them doing very well in Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, West Lothian and Glasgow. I will be interested in constituency odds for Airdrie, Uddingston and Bellshill, Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, Cunninghame South, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, and Bathgate. There may be value there.
If the election had been last month I would have agreed with you but I do think Reform have peaked in Scotland and they have a few weeks to lose more ground yet. My guess is that pretty much all of their seats will come from the lists.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
Mrs C cooked a very nice Steak Diane last night, with which we enjoyed a Primitivo, a Christmas present from elder son.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
Seeking asylum is the fall back option. If you get caught. Then you check your notes, and announce that you are a 15 year old gay Christian convert from Afghanistan.
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
I dont think that is true. 96% of small boat arrivals apply for asylum.
People working illegally are usually people who entered legally and either overstay their visas or work outside them.
That's the small boat arrivals who get intercepted. The ones who arrive without being detected don't rock up at the police station to say hello.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
It's hard to look at this table and not conclude Reform have slipped back:
I don't dispute Reform aren't polling as strongly as they were after the May 2025 locals - if you want a giggle, look at the Ashcroft poll numbers from mid April 2025 - Reform were 21% then, the Conservatives on 24% and Labour on 27% so you could argue Reform are polling as well now as they were then.
Overall, though, I'd argue within the margin of error, the Reform picture is stabilising within a rage of 23-27% with occasional outliers either side. Both Labour and Conservatives are around or just below 20%, the LDs struggling in the low teens but the Green figure is harder to quantify -a spread between 12% and 21% in two polls conducted at more or less the same time doesn't help - I'd probably say 13-15%,ahead of the LDs but behind both Labour and Conservative.
I see it differently, I see a steady chipping away of Reform at a slow rate, and Farage being seen as more polarising, more reactionary and less of a real alternative.
If I had to guess, I'd say Reform would have pipped Labour in a forced choice last year, whereas I'd now say that Labour would edge it.
That could all change if Labour go full Remoaner/Woke though because it will firm up Reform waverers and drive Conservative tacticals to their colours too.
Just reading the Times write of the Scotland poll and unless i'm misunderstanding it says Curtice has the SCons winning 7 FPTP constituencies.... that seems a lot for 11% with mid 30s SNP. Im not going to argue with the ledge himself but having said that, 7 would be somewhat jaw dropping - the 5 current ones pius Ayr and Ed Central or Ab East? That would match Ruth in 2017. Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
Moray more likely than Ayr or Ed Central. Tories probably just edged the wards that make up the Holyrood seat in 2024.
Ah ok, thank you! Im not expecting them to win 7 but i'd not got Moray on the radar to watch
Tories would have won Abdeenshire N seat in 2024 if David Duguid had stood. That said Reform likely to kibosh these seats in May, and SNP tend to do better at Holyrood than Westminster anyway.
These coming elections are likely to be the least predictive of a future GE result.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
I'm very confident in my Starmer surviving 2026 bet.
Oh, I think after the utter bloodbath of Labour's results in May, the forces ranged against Starmer will rear their heads.
And Starmer might be so broken by it, he just gives up.
I think that's entirely baked in, and I expect nothing more than a cabinet reshuffle- maybe not even that.
There were rumours a few weeks ago of a few people returning to the Cabinet: Rayner, Haigh and Powell were the names mentioned. It could be a contingency plan being prepared to shore up support for Starmer after the May elections.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
Mrs C cooked a very nice Steak Diane last night, with which we enjoyed a Primitivo, a Christmas present from elder son.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
Seeking asylum is the fall back option. If you get caught. Then you check your notes, and announce that you are a 15 year old gay Christian convert from Afghanistan.
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
I dont think that is true. 96% of small boat arrivals apply for asylum.
People working illegally are usually people who entered legally and either overstay their visas or work outside them.
That's the small boat arrivals who get intercepted. The ones who arrive without being detected don't rock up at the police station to say hello.
Somewhat of a question to which there is no answer, but has anyone any idea of how many people actually do make it across the Channel without being detected?
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
This is bollocks. I am 99% certain that crossing the channel without papers or permission and avoiding all customs and borders - while often endangering children - breaks thousands of laws. It’s just that our enfeebled authorities are too pathetic to enforce them, and allow them to claim asylum
The first job of a Reform government should be an end to the right of asylum. Just end it. Withdraw from all treaties that oblige it. Take only those who really need our help, and are not likely to rape and murder
I think asylum is still valid, but the criteria are drawn far too broadly right now.
We can't be obliged to take in anyone in the world who is facing any form of persecution anywhere, just because they make it to our shores, whereupon they instantly have the same rights as native Britons.
These coming elections are likely to be the least predictive of a future GE result.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
I'm very confident in my Starmer surviving 2026 bet.
Oh, I think after the utter bloodbath of Labour's results in May, the forces ranged against Starmer will rear their heads.
And Starmer might be so broken by it, he just gives up.
I think that's entirely baked in, and I expect nothing more than a cabinet reshuffle- maybe not even that.
There were rumours a few weeks ago of a few people returning to the Cabinet: Rayner, Haigh and Powell were the names mentioned. It could be a contingency plan being prepared to shore up support for Starmer after the May elections.
Isn't the Dissolution and consequent Kings Speech quite soon after the elections? Will there be time for a reshuffle?
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
And, Reform are polling very strongly, week after week, in by elections. They will be a big party, in local government, after May 7th.
Following which, they will fail to reform anything and the councils concerned will be even more dismal.
I don't expect this to affect any of their polling though, because they will just blame it on national government.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
Same here.
Wrapped in bay leaves and marinaded in Thyme, salt and pink peppercorns.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Agreed.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
Maybe. It depends.
If Texas leans very slightly Democrat then it means the Republicans pile up lots of wasted votes there, which is the sort of thing that has you lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.
The uncertainty is that, for that to happen, the Democrats would have to lose voters in other states. If those voters are in California, where the Democrats pile up lots of votes they don't need to win the state, then that's good, but if they're voters in the mid-west, such as in PA, MI, WI or MN, then you could see the reverse in those states - the Democrats losing narrowly on a tied popular vote.
I don't think votes piled up in California matters for the presidency. The number of college electors in each state is the most important thing. You want to win the big states, so you can offset votes from a larger number of smaller states. Of the big four, Democrats already hold California and New York. If they can put Texas and Florida into play, that's potentially a game changer for them.
The opposite dynamic for the Senate where the senator from North Dakota is just as good as the one from Texas.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It was always intended that you could pass through many safe countries, as many Jewish refugees had before the war.
Once someone is granted asylum, they have the same rights to benefits as other citizens. About half of those granted asylum are in employment two years after.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
It may not be illegal, but that doesn't mean it's not a massive problem for the host country.
Most of the world is a shithole. It's entirely understandable that people in, say, Eritrea want a better life here. It's entirely understandable that on arrival, they claim asylum, because that's what the system incentivises them to do. Whether 'asylum' is fleeing from torture amd respression or just fleeing from a really shit country is almoat beside the point. Yet we can't accommodate all of them. Indeed, even accommodating the million or so every two or three years who do come is massively challenging and expensive and - and this seems so obvious it shouldn't need saying, and yet some don't seem to get it - in no way a benefit to the UK.
I spent a very depressing morning a few months back volunteering at a centre to help the unemployed with putting together a CV. It was all Eritreans. And, to their credit, they wanted to work. They didn't want to come here and be on benefits. But these were not high skilled people. Farmers, mainly. Occasionally some might have experience of warehouse or retail or cleaning work. None spoke English well, few spoke it at all. I don't want to demonise these immigrants - they are responding rationally to the system. But it's hard to conclude that this is anything but a massive cost to Britain.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
Same here.
Wrapped in bay leaves and marinaded in Thyme, salt and pink peppercorns.
Spent extra got it from a farm shop here.
Yep - cost a bloody fortune with the "Easter lamb" tag!
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
And, Reform are polling very strongly, week after week, in by elections. They will be a big party, in local government, after May 7th.
Following which, they will fail to reform anything and the councils concerned will be even more dismal.
I don't expect this to affect any of their polling though, because they will just blame it on national government.
It’s fair to say that local government finance is pretty much screwed everywhere at the moment, thanks to national policy.
What’s needed is much more devolution rather than centralisation, including devolution of tax-raising powers, but the media prefer “postcode lottery” stories and the MPs prefer taking the power themselves, so it will never happen.
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
Agreed.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
Maybe. It depends.
If Texas leans very slightly Democrat then it means the Republicans pile up lots of wasted votes there, which is the sort of thing that has you lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.
The uncertainty is that, for that to happen, the Democrats would have to lose voters in other states. If those voters are in California, where the Democrats pile up lots of votes they don't need to win the state, then that's good, but if they're voters in the mid-west, such as in PA, MI, WI or MN, then you could see the reverse in those states - the Democrats losing narrowly on a tied popular vote.
I don't think votes piled up in California matters for the presidency. The number of college electors in each state is the most important thing. You want to win the big states, so you can offset votes from a larger number of smaller states. Of the big four, Democrats already hold California and New York. If they can put Texas and Florida into play, that's potentially a game changer for them.
The opposite dynamic for the Senate where the senator from North Dakota is just as good as the one from Texas.
Votes piled up pointlessly in California matters in terms of deciding who wins the electoral college on a tied popular vote.
It's the same principle as with gerrymandering. Excess votes on California are "packing" and votes in a nearish miss like Texas are "cracking".
These coming elections are likely to be the least predictive of a future GE result.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
I'm very confident in my Starmer surviving 2026 bet.
Oh, I think after the utter bloodbath of Labour's results in May, the forces ranged against Starmer will rear their heads.
And Starmer might be so broken by it, he just gives up.
I think that's entirely baked in, and I expect nothing more than a cabinet reshuffle- maybe not even that.
There were rumours a few weeks ago of a few people returning to the Cabinet: Rayner, Haigh and Powell were the names mentioned. It could be a contingency plan being prepared to shore up support for Starmer after the May elections.
Given all that is going on in the world, moving Ed Miliband to No.11 might be required. He won't back down on Net Zero, so will have to be given some sweeties to move on...
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
I have to assist in creating a chocolate egg hunt for 3 extremely rowdy small children. Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
We had our Easter yesterday with the family around at the house and my first BBQ of the year. I was pleased to get the food into the Conservatory before the sleet started. A great time was had by all, especially my 1 year grandson who eats like a horse.
Slow-cooking leg of lamb in the oven. Smells great.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
Mrs C cooked a very nice Steak Diane last night, with which we enjoyed a Primitivo, a Christmas present from elder son.
We have a rather nice Madiran for our guests...
But you'll be drinking the 2016 Chateau Margaux yourselves?
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
Seeking asylum is the fall back option. If you get caught. Then you check your notes, and announce that you are a 15 year old gay Christian convert from Afghanistan.
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It was always intended that you could pass through many safe countries, as many Jewish refugees had before the war.
Once someone is granted asylum, they have the same rights to benefits as other citizens. About half of those granted asylum are in employment two years after.
How’s about people who claim asylum, and then travel back to their ‘home’ country for a holiday?
The US has just started going through travel records and deporting such people. Starting with a couple of relatives of an Iranian general who celebrated the deaths of US soldiers.
Reform have been steadily slipping back for at least the last 6 months.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
Not quite.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
And, Reform are polling very strongly, week after week, in by elections. They will be a big party, in local government, after May 7th.
Following which, they will fail to reform anything and the councils concerned will be even more dismal.
I don't expect this to affect any of their polling though, because they will just blame it on national government.
It’s fair to say that local government finance is pretty much screwed everywhere at the moment, thanks to national policy.
What’s needed is much more devolution rather than centralisation, including devolution of tax-raising powers, but the media prefer “postcode lottery” stories and the MPs prefer taking the power themselves, so it will never happen.
That "postcode lottery" stuff really boils my piss.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It was always intended that you could pass through many safe countries, as many Jewish refugees had before the war.
Once someone is granted asylum, they have the same rights to benefits as other citizens. About half of those granted asylum are in employment two years after.
How’s about people who claim asylum, and then travel back to their ‘home’ country for a holiday?
The US has just started going through travel records and deporting such people. Starting with a couple of relatives of an Iranian general who celebrated the deaths of US soldiers.
Comments
Why would anyone paddle the extra 400 miles to beach at North Berwick rather than Folkestone?
It's an entirely irrelevant point.
Happy Easter everyone!
I was struck, by the discussion about destroying dams, irrigation, desalination plants, by how similar this is to what the Mongols did, when they invaded Central Asia and Iran. You simply make existence impossible for your enemies. These places took decades to recover from the destruction of irrigation.
It depends which pollsters you look at - More In Common still has Reform at 30% and others have them in the high twenties. Yes, this is down on the post-May 2025 LE euphoria but it's more uneven than you suggest.
YouGov have had Reform at 23-26% for the whole of 2026 which is within margin of error.
By the way, I think we do comment on it regularly as every poll is micro-analysed on here. As to what other news and political commentary outlets do,you may be right but the love-in with Farage seems as strong as ever in some places.
These are the EMAs of all recent polls.
You can see the decline in Reform, the rise of Green and Tories and Labour neck and neck .
Sadly the UNSC is also going the way of being a platform for performative show boating where nothing gets done because of the constant vetoes .
It will also crystallise the level of support vs campaigning competency of Reform & Greens. Much has been made, over the years of the requirement to have a “good ground game”.
So far, Reform have been elevated by enthusiasm in a sector of the electorate, rather than party competence.
May will give us indications of how far that can carry them.
There are lots of downsides for both the Greens and Reform moving forward . Currently it’s a free hit for them .
The mind over matter breast enlarger and drug enabler in No 10 during the current crisis or the Trump fellator and Putin shill.
Against those Starmer looks a better bet .
Tell us again how the average person doesn't understand that inflation going down means prices are still rising. That'll make you feel even more superior.
Sir John in a giving mood this Easter
My earlier point is the current polling is all over the place and that might be a function of voter volatility but more likely differing sampling, weighting or other methodology. The way some of the Conservative-inclined have been salivating over this Ashcroft poll is absurd but understandable just as celebrating holding a Ward in a local Council by-election which they won with 69% in a bad year with just 45%.
MY view increasingly is May will be disappointing for all parties (except perhaps Plaid Cymru in Wales). For those who lose lots of seats, the disappointment will be obvious but for Reform and Greens, I suspect it will be a case of not as good as we might have hoped, expected or wanted whether that be through lack of candidates or lack of activist resources or just because the vote they thought was there wasn't or didn't come out.
So why is that factually incorrect bigots band together to lord it over other people?
‘ This is a MUST read article by @smeslami & Zeynab Malakouti!
It reveals how Tehran's calculations re the Straits have changed. Rather than use this leverage to negotiate an end to the war, Tehran is looking to establish a permanent transit fee mechanism and use its leverage to reestablish economic relations with countries who - due to US sanctions - have more or less ended their ties with Iran.’
https://x.com/tparsi/status/2040569948913676435?s=61
I was up at 3am to take my son to Heathrow at the start of his 2 month Central Asian trip. Hopefully he’ll actually be able to find a flight home and the world supply of jet fuel isn’t being rationed by then.
Then back in the car at 7.45 for France. I’m underneath channel as we speak.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Ah, thank you.
We have a tradition in my house that this is Sushi Sunday. When my then-girlfriend and I first lived together we decided on our day off today to make sushi, rather than a traditional roast. The next year we decided that was fun so lets do it again, and it became our annual tradition. Fast forward about 16 years and now its a tradition our kids love too, they help up us to both make and then demolish the sushi.
Whatever you do today, hope you enjoy it.
Ive already earned my Monday of extreme inactivity
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2040431890306318453
Looking at the actual races I can’t see it, Dems take Texas has been “about to happen” for at least a couple of decades now, but it’s never close.
But it’s still a massive effort put into the recovery mission.
I suppose there’s scenario 3: he manages an off ramp, Iran disappears from the news, and the Epstein files are finally released in full with DJT featuring prominently.
Hypothetically though, if Texas did start to lean-Dem (which I can't see happening, but hypothetically) such that on tied or a very small popular vote lead for the GOP the Democrats carry Texas . . . would that be enough to reverse the current distortion in the electoral college that led to Bush and Trump losing the PV but winning the Presidency?
Would a blue Texas enable a Democrat candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Presidency?
The first job of a Reform government should be an end to the right of asylum. Just end it. Withdraw from all treaties that oblige it. Take only those who really need our help, and are not likely to rape and murder
They said "What do you know? We know best," when Ukraine offered to advise US forces about what they had learned.
Overall, though, I'd argue within the margin of error, the Reform picture is stabilising within a rage of 23-27% with occasional outliers either side. Both Labour and Conservatives are around or just below 20%, the LDs struggling in the low teens but the Green figure is harder to quantify -a spread between 12% and 21% in two polls conducted at more or less the same time doesn't help - I'd probably say 13-15%,ahead of the LDs but behind both Labour and Conservative.
And Starmer might be so broken by it, he just gives up.
Unless Iran goes horrifically wrong, to the point of planeloads of coffins arriving home being on the news every night as happened in Iraq two decades ago, Americans don’t think much about foreign policy when deciding how to vote.
It’ll be cost of living and domestic policy that are in people’s minds come November.
He has clearly received a Google Ads promotion of some sort, because Google continually drops "sponsored" segments of him declaring today's exciting activity of substantially enhancing the interior of his passion wagon by fitting new bionic six million dollar floor mats, with great detail as to the patterns of the tesselated Ts orientated to minimise moisture and dampness.
I keep having to swat it to get my fix of Ukraine news. I don't want to keep clicking on it, because if I do that then click away it will start to undermine his algorithm treatment.
We're eating at 3, if anybody wants to invite themselves...
But given the designed strength of the position of a Labour PM, it would not be certain, even then.
If Labour tops the poll, he is safe.
The electoral college currently favours Republicans on the national vote share because the Dems have massive majorities in large states like CA and NY. If the Dems can swing Texas it becomes almost impossible for Reps to win.
If you look at the 2024 Presidential election, the result was 312-226.
Texas is 40 EC votes, so just swinging Texas would have made it it 272-266 to Trump. If Texas swings, probably one more of the Trump states does too. Any half-decent Dem candidate wins the election if they win Texas.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election/interactive-map
(In the interview imo Stanley was a patsy, and entirely unprepared.)
I need to remind them that the Telegraph is soon going to be owned by the Germans from the EU !
If Texas leans very slightly Democrat then it means the Republicans pile up lots of wasted votes there, which is the sort of thing that has you lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.
The uncertainty is that, for that to happen, the Democrats would have to lose voters in other states. If those voters are in California, where the Democrats pile up lots of votes they don't need to win the state, then that's good, but if they're voters in the mid-west, such as in PA, MI, WI or MN, then you could see the reverse in those states - the Democrats losing narrowly on a tied popular vote.
But my wife hates it, so I'm restricted ;-(
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2040650379419959760
A senior U.S. military official just called this one of the most complex special operations missions in American history
If I had to guess, I'd say Reform would have pipped Labour in a forced choice last year, whereas I'd now say that Labour would edge it.
That could all change if Labour go full Remoaner/Woke though because it will firm up Reform waverers and drive Conservative tacticals to their colours too.
We can't be obliged to take in anyone in the world who is facing any form of persecution anywhere, just because they make it to our shores, whereupon they instantly have the same rights as native Britons.
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2040568351190069423
Surprisingly having a right go at the PM, portraying him as politically impotent.
I don't expect this to affect any of their polling though, because they will just blame it on national government.
Wrapped in bay leaves and marinaded in Thyme, salt and pink peppercorns.
Spent extra got it from a farm shop here.
The opposite dynamic for the Senate where the senator from North Dakota is just as good as the one from Texas.
Once someone is granted asylum, they have the same rights to benefits as other citizens. About half of those granted asylum are in employment two years after.
Most of the world is a shithole. It's entirely understandable that people in, say, Eritrea want a better life here. It's entirely understandable that on arrival, they claim asylum, because that's what the system incentivises them to do. Whether 'asylum' is fleeing from torture amd respression or just fleeing from a really shit country is almoat beside the point.
Yet we can't accommodate all of them. Indeed, even accommodating the million or so every two or three years who do come is massively challenging and expensive and - and this seems so obvious it shouldn't need saying, and yet some don't seem to get it - in no way a benefit to the UK.
I spent a very depressing morning a few months back volunteering at a centre to help the unemployed with putting together a CV. It was all Eritreans. And, to their credit, they wanted to work. They didn't want to come here and be on benefits. But these were not high skilled people. Farmers, mainly. Occasionally some might have experience of warehouse or retail or cleaning work. None spoke English well, few spoke it at all. I don't want to demonise these immigrants - they are responding rationally to the system. But it's hard to conclude that this is anything but a massive cost to Britain.
What’s needed is much more devolution rather than centralisation, including devolution of tax-raising powers, but the media prefer “postcode lottery” stories and the MPs prefer taking the power themselves, so it will never happen.
It's the same principle as with gerrymandering. Excess votes on California are "packing" and votes in a nearish miss like Texas are "cracking".
About 1% of asylum seekers claim to be gay: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2022/asylum-claims-on-the-basis-of-sexual-orientation-2021--2 That’s below the population rate!
Figures are not recorded on religion, but the Church of England have responded to claims that asylum seekers are abusing the process in this manner here: https://www.churchofengland.org/media/press-releases/bishop-churches-support-asylum-seekers-shouldnt-be-seen-magic-ticket
The US has just started going through travel records and deporting such people. Starting with a couple of relatives of an Iranian general who celebrated the deaths of US soldiers.
https://x.com/griftreport/status/2040723620398268848
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15706499/Hamideh-Soleimani-Afshar-qasem-niece-iran-green-card-ice.html
That meme is one of our biggest problems.
It's no better than a coin toss, but I can certainly see the possibility.