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A 12.5% return in just over six months? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 62,013
    a

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    My quicker trajectory involves the Dems winning both houses, Trump and Vance being impeached in a weekend, and the House Speaker becoming President.

    Followed by a reforming whirlwind.

    Chances of happening: about 1 in 50k .
    That is hugely overoptimistic, Matt.

    The chances of the Dems winning the Senate are remote, even if the vote isn't rigged.
    The chances of getting 60+ seats is Venus-De-Milo-Grows-Arms-And-Waves territory.

    Even with DINO candidates & Trumps latest fuckup
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,305

    a

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    My quicker trajectory involves the Dems winning both houses, Trump and Vance being impeached in a weekend, and the House Speaker becoming President.

    Followed by a reforming whirlwind.

    Chances of happening: about 1 in 50k .
    That is hugely overoptimistic, Matt.

    The chances of the Dems winning the Senate are remote, even if the vote isn't rigged.
    The chances of getting 60+ seats is Venus-De-Milo-Grows-Arms-And-Waves territory.

    Even with DINO candidates & Trumps latest fuckup
    so lay the bet and get the cash...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 62,013
    Cicero said:

    a

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    My quicker trajectory involves the Dems winning both houses, Trump and Vance being impeached in a weekend, and the House Speaker becoming President.

    Followed by a reforming whirlwind.

    Chances of happening: about 1 in 50k .
    That is hugely overoptimistic, Matt.

    The chances of the Dems winning the Senate are remote, even if the vote isn't rigged.
    The chances of getting 60+ seats is Venus-De-Milo-Grows-Arms-And-Waves territory.

    Even with DINO candidates & Trumps latest fuckup
    so lay the bet and get the cash...
    What was the Dornford Yates quote? Something like “… then you’re betting ten thousand to win 10 shillings. An exhilarating stunt, that is…”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,673

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    My quicker trajectory involves the Dems winning both houses, Trump and Vance being impeached in a weekend, and the House Speaker becoming President.

    Followed by a reforming whirlwind.

    Chances of happening: about 1 in 50k .
    That is hugely overoptimistic, Matt.

    The chances of the Dems winning the Senate are remote, even if the vote isn't rigged.
    I don't think they're remote.
    It's more of a toss up than that.

    But the chances of a successful impeachment are certainly remote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 127,167

    NEW THREAD

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,379
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder if any of the Iraqi generals involved in the previous invasion of Iran are still around. They could have some useful advice for Trump.

    That wasn't an enormous success, was it?
    Was it not?

    They toppled the regime in a matter of days.

    Compared to Trump's misadventure in Iran, it was a roaring success.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,512
    @Yokes

    Thanks Yokes for your illuminating comments. They are much appreciated in these difficult times.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,342

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    Not so much corrupt, as that The Process takes so long.

    Remember all the people shocked at my suggestion that Trump should have been prosecuted for Jan 6 within 6 months. Rather than starting 6 years later?
    The prosecution began inside a week, with impeachment. Also in Georgia it took less than six months.

    But he stalled the process at every single stage through legal game playing and not a little bribery until all the different avenues were shut by his re-election.

    It will, realistically, take five years to get convictions for these scum, and may require a clear out of the Supreme Court as well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,448
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    Not so much corrupt, as that The Process takes so long.

    Remember all the people shocked at my suggestion that Trump should have been prosecuted for Jan 6 within 6 months. Rather than starting 6 years later?
    The prosecution began inside a week, with impeachment. Also in Georgia it took less than six months.

    But he stalled the process at every single stage through legal game playing and not a little bribery until all the different avenues were shut by his re-election.

    It will, realistically, take five years to get convictions for these scum, and may require a clear out of the Supreme Court as well.
    Is there a mechanism to flush out the Supreme Court, Augean Stable style?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,342

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    In normal times this would mean a sacking: Hegseth intructed his broker to invest millions in defence companies shortly before starting a war.

    https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    One reason why we shouldn’t take free midterms for granted is if the Republicans lose office most of them will be spending rather a long time as guests of the Federal Government, even though because the American judicial system is corrupt it will take a fair while to put them away.
    Not so much corrupt, as that The Process takes so long.

    Remember all the people shocked at my suggestion that Trump should have been prosecuted for Jan 6 within 6 months. Rather than starting 6 years later?
    The prosecution began inside a week, with impeachment. Also in Georgia it took less than six months.

    But he stalled the process at every single stage through legal game playing and not a little bribery until all the different avenues were shut by his re-election.

    It will, realistically, take five years to get convictions for these scum, and may require a clear out of the Supreme Court as well.
    Is there a mechanism to flush out the Supreme Court, Augean Stable style?
    Snag is, it would have to be impeachment.

    Or court packing.

    Some of the more overtly criminal ones are getting on a bit, e,g. Thomas, which might help.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,402

    Some interesting stuff coming out of Downing Street since McSweeney left.



    ..
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,402

    @Yokes

    Thanks Yokes for your illuminating comments. They are much appreciated in these difficult times.

    Yokes rarely posts but it always a quality interjection.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,552
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    lol

    ‘ BREAKING: US media, citing US officials, is reporting that President Trump has told his aides that he is willing to end the war on Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.’


    https://x.com/ajenglish/status/2038808086131941742?s=61

    So it’s finally dawned on Trump that there is no way you could stop Iran from attacking along a strait with 104 miles of coastline when the drones could be 50 miles inland
    I wonder if a bat tunnel for the Straits could be useful. Could be Sir Stateman's big chance to make a big splash on the world stage?
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