Iran is far from the world's only source of oil and, as @rcs1000 says, the market will always clear.
Price may go up a bit though.
A large chunk of the Middle East can't export.
The disruption means that there is already a supply chain breakdown for several countries. After they receive the cargos at sea already - there is no more coming.
Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Philippines will run out in 3 weeks.
No-one is going to "run out".
I know revelling in hyberbole and drama is more fun, but it doesn't make it true.
Third world countries reliant on Gulf imports that can't afford higher prices might.
We won't.
Demand and supply will recalibrate again at a new price, and the supply chain will react.
The market will still clear.
Did the market for food clear during the Irish famine?
Demand and supply recalibrated at a new price, just that it was one at which many people could not afford to eat. And there wasn't even an overall deficit in food, but simply a higher price able to be paid for the food elsewhere.
A price high enough to drive a cut in demand for oil of 20% is going to leave a lot of people doing without. Probably including a bunch of farmers. There's then a real risk of the world tipping into food deficit.
The market may clear, but will everyone eat? And how many millions do you think will decide it's best to leave before the food runs out, and try to find somewhere they will be more reliably fed?
Famines are not caused by lack of food, but by lack of income.
Concerned you are possibly quite a boring, fatuous c*nt with no original views?
Try this simple test at home. Do you ever find yourself nodding along in agreement with “The Rest is Politics” or “The News Agents”? Do you ever in fact spend a single minute listening to either of these podcasts?
If either answer is Yes, congratulations. You are one of THEM
Is there anything more boring, fatuous and unoriginal than using "centrist dad" as an insult?
Genuine question.
Bullseye. Heh
"Keep out of the black and in the red. You get nothing in this game for two in a bed."
I have finally found the exact position for my spider poised in Burmese amber. He is from the Cretaceous, he is 99-100 million years old. The day he was trapped in this sap, now fossilised, he was surrounded by the great dinosaurs
I’ve decided to call him “Spidey”
Spidey stares at me across my living room. Spidey also looks slightly nonplussed which, I guess, given his fate, is forgivable
Concerned you are possibly quite a boring, fatuous c*nt with no original views?
Try this simple test at home. Do you ever find yourself nodding along in agreement with “The Rest is Politics” or “The News Agents”? Do you ever in fact spend a single minute listening to either of these podcasts?
If either answer is Yes, congratulations. You are one of THEM
I reckon attendees of this may fall into your category.
wonderful portrayal of Rupert Murdoch by Alan Cox & Claudia Jolly's Brenda Dean is stellar. Neil Kinnock sat behind me - will the last person to leave turn out the lights? Go see ... 👏
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
My local Tesco all out of petrol and diesel again today
The supermarkets seem to be selling petrol and diesel cheaper to get people in - the lure of the headline price. But are restricting supply to constrain the loss.
A lovely bunch of lads. Wtf are those Frankenstein clodhoppers Ben Gvir is wearing? You can imagine them stamping on a Palestinian’s face, forever.
‘ VIDEO | Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir, outside the Knesset chamber, celebrates the passing of the death penalty law for Palestinian detainees, describing it as historic and saying, “Soon we will count them one by one.”
So Adolf Eichmann was the last person (formally) executed by Israel and in 1962. And here we are...
Apparently those are little gilded nooses on their lapels. Have there ever been other historical examples of nationalist death cults wearing symbols of their political necrophilia?
Ja.
I wonder what Cyclefree makes of the death-penalty-but-only-for-Palestinians law.
I am not sure that is a fair question to ask of another poster on this site.
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
Iran is far from the world's only source of oil and, as @rcs1000 says, the market will always clear.
Price may go up a bit though.
A large chunk of the Middle East can't export.
The disruption means that there is already a supply chain breakdown for several countries. After they receive the cargos at sea already - there is no more coming.
Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Philippines will run out in 3 weeks.
No-one is going to "run out".
I know revelling in hyberbole and drama is more fun, but it doesn't make it true.
Third world countries reliant on Gulf imports that can't afford higher prices might.
We won't.
Demand and supply will recalibrate again at a new price, and the supply chain will react.
The market will still clear.
Did the market for food clear during the Irish famine?
Demand and supply recalibrated at a new price, just that it was one at which many people could not afford to eat. And there wasn't even an overall deficit in food, but simply a higher price able to be paid for the food elsewhere.
A price high enough to drive a cut in demand for oil of 20% is going to leave a lot of people doing without. Probably including a bunch of farmers. There's then a real risk of the world tipping into food deficit.
The market may clear, but will everyone eat? And how many millions do you think will decide it's best to leave before the food runs out, and try to find somewhere they will be more reliably fed?
Famines are not caused by lack of food, but by lack of income.
or enough income to buy food in other words.
Generally caused by government policy too, whether as a side effect of war (Eighties Ethiopia, Biafra 1960's, Bengal 1940's) or just a casual attitude to its subjects (China 1950's, Ireland 1840's, Bengal 1780's)
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
This is going to count as Acts of God for travel insurance, isn't it, even if it's not in the region?
I have no exciting travel, but I do have a week's walking in the Algarve in early May which promises to be, at the least, pleasant. An easy-on-the-wallet week of red rocks, spring flowers, octopus and vinho verde.
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
They’ve had a very good pay rise and are now acting disgracefully. If they don’t like it they should leave , no one forced them into this career path.
Guido Fawkes has the story that a year on from the announcement of its abolition, NHS England has shed 10% of its staff.
Is this notable? They're going through a process with an aim of cutting 50% staff, but that takes a bit of time. I know a fair few who are leaving in the next few months. In the mean time, lots of important things, like managing the adoption of AI, have been moving slowly because of the impact of employment uncertainty, people having to apply for their own jobs, people leaving, etc.
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
This is going to count as Acts of God for travel insurance, isn't it, even if it's not in the region?
I have no exciting travel, but I do have a week's walking in the Algarve in early May which promises to be, at the least, pleasant. An easy-on-the-wallet week of red rocks, spring flowers, octopus and vinho verde.
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
The pay offer to Doctors was 3.5%.
Which is more than the current inflation rate . Where exactly is the government supposed to find the latest ransom demands and it will open up more public sector workers to ask for more . I supported their original action but now they seem to be living in la la land with their demands . If they’re losing people like me that’s not a good sign l
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
Guido Fawkes has the story that a year on from the announcement of its abolition, NHS England has shed 10% of its staff.
Is this notable? They're going through a process with an aim of cutting 50% staff, but that takes a bit of time. I know a fair few who are leaving in the next few months. In the mean time, lots of important things, like managing the adoption of AI, have been moving slowly because of the impact of employment uncertainty, people having to apply for their own jobs, people leaving, etc.
A lot of others have been transferred to either the DoH or the ICB's, for the simple and obvious reason that the work they are doing still needs doing!
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
They’ve had a very good pay rise and are now acting disgracefully. If they don’t like it they should leave , no one forced them into this career path.
That's one of the things that pisses me off about them. They fight tooth and nail to get into med school knowing full well what the pay scales are for newly qualified medics. And then when they start work they have the temerity to winge about the pay.
I could list some of the other things that piss me off about them, but I need to get some sleep tonight.
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
They’ve had a very good pay rise and are now acting disgracefully. If they don’t like it they should leave , no one forced them into this career path.
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
They’ve had a very good pay rise and are now acting disgracefully. If they don’t like it they should leave , no one forced them into this career path.
market forces, and yes they are leaving...
The government gave them a very good pay rise which they had no chance of getting under the Tories . The thanks Labour got was a big fat zero . I’m not a fan of the current government but on this they must feel really betrayed and Resident Doctors are trashing the reputation of others who chose not to vote for strike action .
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
If you believe the DT Starmer has had enough of the Resident Doctors and has issued them an ultimatum.
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Don’t worry.
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
They’ve had a very good pay rise and are now acting disgracefully. If they don’t like it they should leave , no one forced them into this career path.
market forces, and yes they are leaving...
The government gave them a very good pay rise which they had no chance of getting under the Tories . The thanks Labour got was a big fat zero . I’m not a fan of the current government but on this they must feel really betrayed and Resident Doctors are trashing the reputation of others who chose not to vote for strike action .
That payrise came a year after a 9% real terms cut.
I didn't strike, and not many of the residents in my department have. In some departments there is a lot of militancy wrapped up with poor morale snd a bunch of non-pay grievances, particularly the capricious appointment process that randomly allocates people to jobs, if they get a job at all.
DoH personel planning and management is appallingly incompetent. That is why we similtaneously have a crisis of GP access abd GP unemployment.
Channel 14 says it obtained an exchange among Iranian leaders:
President Pezeshkian: “I want to be involved in the negotiations with the U.S. Without a quick deal, our entire economy will collapse in 3 weeks.”
IRGC chief Vahidi: “That’s exactly why you can’t be involved. You’ll give up everything for a deal.”
After the call ended, the report says the Iranian president told his companions he feels like a ‘hostage’, “I’m unable to resign, I cannot make my own decisions, all I can do is read from a script I’m given”
Channel 14 concludes its report by saying that the IRGC is effectively running the country now.
A lovely bunch of lads. Wtf are those Frankenstein clodhoppers Ben Gvir is wearing? You can imagine them stamping on a Palestinian’s face, forever.
‘ VIDEO | Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir, outside the Knesset chamber, celebrates the passing of the death penalty law for Palestinian detainees, describing it as historic and saying, “Soon we will count them one by one.”
So Adolf Eichmann was the last person (formally) executed by Israel and in 1962. And here we are...
Apparently those are little gilded nooses on their lapels. Have there ever been other historical examples of nationalist death cults wearing symbols of their political necrophilia?
Ja.
I wonder what Cyclefree makes of the death-penalty-but-only-for-Palestinians law.
She would -I hope- make the perfectly reasonable point that British Jews are no more responsible for the actions of the Israeli government, than British Muslims are for the actions of Hamas.
I have finally found the exact position for my spider poised in Burmese amber. He is from the Cretaceous, he is 99-100 million years old. The day he was trapped in this sap, now fossilised, he was surrounded by the great dinosaurs
I’ve decided to call him “Spidey”
Spidey stares at me across my living room. Spidey also looks slightly nonplussed which, I guess, given his fate, is forgivable
Imagine being dead underground entombed in amber for 100 million years, until finally, miraculously freed! Praise be!! And then fated to stare at you and your bijou scatter cushions. Well. I'd be more than nonplussed. I. for one, salute his indefatigability.
Channel 14 says it obtained an exchange among Iranian leaders:
President Pezeshkian: “I want to be involved in the negotiations with the U.S. Without a quick deal, our entire economy will collapse in 3 weeks.”
IRGC chief Vahidi: “That’s exactly why you can’t be involved. You’ll give up everything for a deal.”
After the call ended, the report says the Iranian president told his companions he feels like a ‘hostage’, “I’m unable to resign, I cannot make my own decisions, all I can do is read from a script I’m given”
Channel 14 concludes its report by saying that the IRGC is effectively running the country now.
From that bastion of reliable information Channel 14 ! A right wing outlet effectively a mouthpiece for Netenyahu !
Given Iran is doubling its oil revenues since the start of the war I think we can file this as “ fake news “ .
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
This is going to count as Acts of God for travel insurance, isn't it, even if it's not in the region?
I have no exciting travel, but I do have a week's walking in the Algarve in early May which promises to be, at the least, pleasant. An easy-on-the-wallet week of red rocks, spring flowers, octopus and vinho verde.
Mate, I fear your holiday is in grave jeopardy. And the algarve in spring - especially if you do be the Costa vicentina and monchique - is magical. All the flowers and migrating birds
I’m acting on the assumption that any travel after mid April is slightly threatened and anything after early-mid May is in serious peril
Unlesss they get the damn straits opened tomorrow - and we just have a nasty but short bump in inflation and maybe a short recession in the west
If it drags on for weeks. Fuck knows. Could be apocalyptic - certainly in poorer parts of Asia and Africa
I have finally found the exact position for my spider poised in Burmese amber. He is from the Cretaceous, he is 99-100 million years old. The day he was trapped in this sap, now fossilised, he was surrounded by the great dinosaurs
I’ve decided to call him “Spidey”
Spidey stares at me across my living room. Spidey also looks slightly nonplussed which, I guess, given his fate, is forgivable
Imagine being dead underground entombed in amber for 100 million years, until finally, miraculously freed! Praise be!! And then fated to stare at you and your bijou scatter cushions. Well. I'd be more than nonplussed. I. for one, salute his indefatigability.
I know.
I kinda feel for him. “Spidey”
He lived in the glorious peak-fertility Cretaceous and now he gets to watch an ageing divorcee cook Dover sole in north london
Jesus fucking malarkey I’ve got some of the best travel in history scheduled over the next 3 months and it’s not gonna happen, is it?
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
This is going to count as Acts of God for travel insurance, isn't it, even if it's not in the region?
I have no exciting travel, but I do have a week's walking in the Algarve in early May which promises to be, at the least, pleasant. An easy-on-the-wallet week of red rocks, spring flowers, octopus and vinho verde.
Mate, I fear your holiday is in grave jeopardy. And the algarve in spring - especially if you do be the Costa vicentina and monchique - is magical. All the flowers and migrating birds
I’m acting on the assumption that any travel after mid April is slightly threatened and anything after early-mid May is in serious peril
Unlesss they get the damn straits opened tomorrow - and we just have a nasty but short bump in inflation and maybe a short recession in the west
If it drags on for weeks. Fuck knows. Could be apocalyptic - certainly in poorer parts of Asia and Africa
Yeah, I've just cancelled the Airbnb. Which cuts my losses to just the £50 flights. Can always pick up somewhere last minute if it does happen.
Only because Kemi knows she has zero chance of becoming PM anytime soon and with the Scottish Tories 4th in Holyrood polls she desperately needs to get something to fire up Unionist voters behind the Conservatives so has rehashed Ruth Davidson's 2016 'Vote Conservative to stop an SNP majority and indyref2 line.'
The party leaders who are PM and most likely to be next PM on current polls, Starmer and Farage have already ruled out allowing indyref2, certainly for the whole of the next Holyrood term
Of all the North Sea Licences granted under last Tory Government 2010 to 2024,the total amount of usable product would last the UK needs for under 40 days.
A quick calculation suggests that if new licences were granted today, by 2040 we could have obtained enough to last us until the 8th May 2026???
Source Green Party
It isn't right. Indeed it is dishonest bullshit. There is a succession of licences needed to actually explore and develop a field. Until 2023 it was either 5 or 6, each covering a different stage of the process, from.initial seismic surveys through to finally starting production. So very few licences were granted to actually start producing new fields.
And that is before you get into the fact that the basic numbers the Greens are using are completely wrong as well.
Of all the North Sea Licences granted under last Tory Government 2010 to 2024,the total amount of usable product would last the UK needs for under 40 days.
A quick calculation suggests that if new licences were granted today, by 2040 we could have obtained enough to last us until the 8th May 2026???
Explain why not only Kemi, but the SNP, the Unions, and upto 40 labour mps want our own North Sea fields developed
@Richard_Tyndall made a post earlier that was very measured and generally critical of both Conservatives and Labour for his take on North Sea oil policy.
Just to add that it is entirely possible for Badenoch to be right about the need to start North Sea drilling again and also for her to be jumping on the bandwagon.
Obviously this bit is politics and just my personal opinion but it is certainly what I believe. I don't think any of the current or previous party leaders either understand or want to understand the issues and practicalities of oil and gas production.
I have finally found the exact position for my spider poised in Burmese amber. He is from the Cretaceous, he is 99-100 million years old. The day he was trapped in this sap, now fossilised, he was surrounded by the great dinosaurs
I’ve decided to call him “Spidey”
Spidey stares at me across my living room. Spidey also looks slightly nonplussed which, I guess, given his fate, is forgivable
Imagine being dead underground entombed in amber for 100 million years, until finally, miraculously freed! Praise be!! And then fated to stare at you and your bijou scatter cushions. Well. I'd be more than nonplussed. I. for one, salute his indefatigability.
I know.
I kinda feel for him. “Spidey”
He lived in the glorious peak-fertility Cretaceous and now he gets to watch an ageing divorcee cook Dover sole in north london
That really is awesome. A 100 million year old spider just chilling in your home.
Concerned you are possibly quite a boring, fatuous c*nt with no original views?
Try this simple test at home. Do you ever find yourself nodding along in agreement with “The Rest is Politics” or “The News Agents”? Do you ever in fact spend a single minute listening to either of these podcasts?
If either answer is Yes, congratulations. You are one of THEM
I don't listen to podcasts (although I have been a guest on a couple of them). So I guess I am not a centrist dad, despite significant evidence to the contrary.
The oil issue coming out of the Gulf can be dealt with with other supply chains (though will take time) but the gas less so
China may well be critical to any agreement. The Iranians want someone who can act as a guarantor to any deal, and China is their first choice
Watching media commentary in the last few days. I think people don't understand the likely use of US Marine and airborne. The US options on using ground forces are not great but there are levels of difficulty and potential usefulness. Military doctrine calls for force concentration so they cant easily do everything below. Trump really doesnt want them to go into action and the 'open the Straits or we will wipe you out' rhetoric I am sure is an indicator of that. The Iranians, I suspect, will view such statements as weakness at this point but that might change if the US carries through.
1. Nuclear materials collection. Most hiding places have been levelled above ground, so you cant easily get what is below ground. The intelligence on exactly where also needs to be good. Possibly out of scope
2. Landing otherwise on the shores of the Iranian mainland. They'd have to have more forces that what appears to be moving in, Unless they they think they know something everyone else doesn't
3. The Gulf islands. Makes sense but resourcing looks tight unless they focus. People go on about Kharg but when it comes to Hormuz, its useful but not central, Kharg's main point is denying Iran exports, taking it is an economic lever, a we stop you if block the Straits. Very doable plus it reduces risk on shore to ship attacks further up the Gulf.
The Straits islands are viable. The Iranians ability to successfully repel an attack on these islands around the Straits is limited. They cannot easily reinforce or resupply. Qeshm, which is a major military facility with plenty of anti ship assets, represents the biggest challenge and would need heavy resourcing. Other islands, less problems.
I cannot emphaisze enough that the Iranians have issues hitting moving targets at night with their drones, especially if you use electronic measures on top. A big boat at anchor? Not a problem but if its steaming along under darkness, thats a way harder target. The Marines could also mount surface level action as well in the Straits area, small boats versus small boats but they will be outnumbered.
Where are the Gulf states in all this? They could add in a notable capacity but no indications of them possibly looking at ground troops or naval involvement.
Comments
Air Canada CEO to step down over failure to speak French
I’ve decided to call him “Spidey”
Spidey stares at me across my living room. Spidey also looks slightly nonplussed which, I guess, given his fate, is forgivable
I reckon attendees of this may fall into your category.
David Yelland
@davidyelland
·
30m
Saw In The Print tonight @KingsHeadThtr
wonderful portrayal of Rupert Murdoch by Alan Cox & Claudia Jolly's Brenda Dean is stellar. Neil Kinnock sat behind me - will the last person to leave turn out the lights? Go see ... 👏
https://x.com/davidyelland/status/2038717738915447152
Does this make me immune from Centrist Dad syndrome?
@NateSilver538
·
1h
Trump's approval rating just fell below 40 percent in our tracking for the first time.
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2038711622043144529
Trump. You utter xxxx
“The European Commission is asking member countries to consider cutting back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector, in preparation for "prolonged disruption" to energy supplies from the Iran war.”
https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/2038668327665463369?s=46
Apparently they rejected a 7.1% increase citing the Iran war likely to push up inflation. I’m sure many workers will get a wonderful hearing from their bosses if they turn up asking for more because of a future rise of inflation which hasn’t happened yet !
The rate these doctors are going the public will soon start supporting outlawing strikes by doctors !
Under a future non-left wing government, you will recover your enthusiasm for increasing doctors wages.
Generally caused by government policy too, whether as a side effect of war (Eighties Ethiopia, Biafra 1960's, Bengal 1940's) or just a casual attitude to its subjects (China 1950's, Ireland 1840's, Bengal 1780's)
I have no exciting travel, but I do have a week's walking in the Algarve in early May which promises to be, at the least, pleasant. An easy-on-the-wallet week of red rocks, spring flowers, octopus and vinho verde.
Or was that Rubio?
I'm losing track.
Or maybe they meant five years.
I could list some of the other things that piss me off about them, but I need to get some sleep tonight.
https://x.com/nickyzog/status/2038709520084406466?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I didn't strike, and not many of the residents in my department have. In some departments there is a lot of militancy wrapped up with poor morale snd a bunch of non-pay grievances, particularly the capricious appointment process that randomly allocates people to jobs, if they get a job at all.
DoH personel planning and management is appallingly incompetent. That is why we similtaneously have a crisis of GP access abd GP unemployment.
Channel 14 says it obtained an exchange among Iranian leaders:
President Pezeshkian: “I want to be involved in the negotiations with the U.S. Without a quick deal, our entire economy will collapse in 3 weeks.”
IRGC chief Vahidi: “That’s exactly why you can’t be involved. You’ll give up everything for a deal.”
After the call ended, the report says the Iranian president told his companions he feels like a ‘hostage’, “I’m unable to resign, I cannot make my own decisions, all I can do is read from a script I’m given”
Channel 14 concludes its report by saying that the IRGC is effectively running the country now.
BBC canvasses opinions on whether this crisis is less bad or worse than the 1970s oil crisis.
Her husband holds a gun labelled 'occupation', a plane labelled 'expulsion', and a house labelled 'settlement' 1/2"
This grinning, leering spectre is the deputy speaker of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.
Death penalty for Palestinians ONLY, has passed a vote in the Israeli Parliament 2/2"
https://bsky.app/profile/esherukweku.bsky.social/post/3micbunc5hk2z
Yet when you make even a mild criticism of the Israeli government you get accused of being an anti-semite who wants to wipe Israel off the map.
Although given her most recent comments at CPAC, it's sometimes hard to tell.
I apologise for failing to move straight onto ad hominen attacks. I will do better next time.
BBC News - Bananas galore in Orkney after store orders 38,000 by mistake
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3r384ye7reo
What does that make me?
And then fated to stare at you and your bijou scatter cushions.
Well. I'd be more than nonplussed.
I. for one, salute his indefatigability.
Given Iran is doubling its oil revenues since the start of the war I think we can file this as “ fake news “ .
Three bananas four
Four bananas make a bunch and so do many more
Oh happy school holidays.
I’m acting on the assumption that any travel after mid April is slightly threatened and anything after early-mid May is in serious peril
Unlesss they get the damn straits opened tomorrow - and we just have a nasty but short bump in inflation and maybe a short recession in the west
If it drags on for weeks. Fuck knows. Could be apocalyptic - certainly in poorer parts of Asia and Africa
I kinda feel for him. “Spidey”
He lived in the glorious peak-fertility Cretaceous and now he gets to watch an ageing divorcee cook Dover sole in north london
Turns out it was just half term.
The party leaders who are PM and most likely to be next PM on current polls, Starmer and Farage have already ruled out allowing indyref2, certainly for the whole of the next Holyrood term
And that is before you get into the fact that the basic numbers the Greens are using are completely wrong as well.
Stop posting bullshit.
Obviously this bit is politics and just my personal opinion but it is certainly what I believe. I don't think any of the current or previous party leaders either understand or want to understand the issues and practicalities of oil and gas production.
The oil issue coming out of the Gulf can be dealt with with other supply chains (though will take time) but the gas less so
China may well be critical to any agreement. The Iranians want someone who can act as a guarantor to any deal, and China is their first choice
Watching media commentary in the last few days. I think people don't understand the likely use of US Marine and airborne. The US options on using ground forces are not great but there are levels of difficulty and potential usefulness. Military doctrine calls for force concentration so they cant easily do everything below. Trump really doesnt want them to go into action and the 'open the Straits or we will wipe you out' rhetoric I am sure is an indicator of that. The Iranians, I suspect, will view such statements as weakness at this point but that might change if the US carries through.
1. Nuclear materials collection. Most hiding places have been levelled above ground, so you cant easily get what is below ground. The intelligence on exactly where also needs to be good. Possibly out of scope
2. Landing otherwise on the shores of the Iranian mainland. They'd have to have more forces that what appears to be moving in, Unless they they think they know something everyone else doesn't
3. The Gulf islands. Makes sense but resourcing looks tight unless they focus. People go on about Kharg but when it comes to Hormuz, its useful but not central, Kharg's main point is denying Iran exports, taking it is an economic lever, a we stop you if block the Straits. Very doable plus it reduces risk on shore to ship attacks further up the Gulf.
The Straits islands are viable. The Iranians ability to successfully repel an attack on these islands around the Straits is limited. They cannot easily reinforce or resupply. Qeshm, which is a major military facility with plenty of anti ship assets, represents the biggest challenge and would need heavy resourcing. Other islands, less problems.
I cannot emphaisze enough that the Iranians have issues hitting moving targets at night with their drones, especially if you use electronic measures on top. A big boat at anchor? Not a problem but if its steaming along under darkness, thats a way harder target. The Marines could also mount surface level action as well in the Straits area, small boats versus small boats but they will be outnumbered.
Where are the Gulf states in all this? They could add in a notable capacity but no indications of them possibly looking at ground troops or naval involvement.